Earnings
ARHS - Arhaus, Inc.Very nice reaction off of the 9ema this morning. Largest 30-min volume since the gap up on raised revenue guidance.
Started a small position; couldn't justify a full position with the overall market being slightly extended on a short-term basis and showing negative action on the day.
Will look to add over the debut price high of $14 only if the broad market continues its bullish phase. The all-time-high of 14.95 looms overhead, but with the volume & growth on this name, I'd expect it to clear that level as long as the market environment remains favorable.
The FOMC decision and statement on Wednesday will have a major impact on the market environment. Even if I am shaken out of this starter position, I'm keeping this one on my focus list for as long as the environment remains healthy. This has the potential to be a true market leader.
BROS - Dutch Bros Inc.One of the longer-term plays I am watching. IPO'd back in 2021, they don't have much in the way of current earnings, but analyst estimates are expecting big growth over the next couple of years.
Starting to inch its way up the right side of a possible stage 1 base on good volume. Don't need to rush into buying this one - need to let it show me that it is in fact ready to go. As of now, it's still in a downtrend regardless of the constructive action since the start of the year.
AMKR - Amkor Technology, Inc.Top of my focus list going into the upcoming week. Growth numbers are good, increasing number of funds buying shares, earnings still two weeks away.
On a technical basis, a surge in volume took prices thru some key highs and now we're seeing an orderly consolidation with good looking volume patterns.
Ideally, we get another volume surge that takes us thru last week's highs around 30.50.
US30 Looks Ready to Break!I've just gotten done rolling through 30-minute charts for the Dow 30 and it seems this move higher is losing steam. Will there be a closing in the red today, signalling a bearish jump start to next week?
SPY is forming a reversal narrowing ascending wedge patternSPYs recent rally has now started to form a narrowing ascending wedge pattern. This is a reversal pattern which could lead to a sell off once complete.
The recent rally is not without its bearish news on the horizon.
the market has become quite optimistic that it believes Fed will adjust rate hike to .25 for the first time.
Fed has warned about this recent rally will lead to more pain later.
The way companies have been beating estimates is by lowering EPS guidance.
While I want this bear market to come to a close, we still have more trouble to work through. The Fed is focused on inflation which is high.
Microsoft (MSFT) Q2 2023 EarningsMicrosoft (MSFT) reported the second fiscal quarter 2023 financial results after the market close. EPS beat the low estimates but revenue came below expectations, Azure cloud unit showed strong growth. Here are the key points:
Earnings per share came at $2.32 a decline from $2.48 a share a year ago but topping the expectations of $2.27.
Revenue for the quarter came at $52.7 billion below the expectations of $52.94 billion. Revenue growth is 2% (YoY) which is the slowest pace since 2016.
The Intelligent cloud revenue reported at $21.51 billion below the estimates of $21.43 billion.
Server products and cloud services revenue increased 20% driven by Azure and other cloud services revenue growth of 31%.
Azure grew 38% (YoY) topping the consensus of 37%. Here are the last quarters Azure growth:
Q3 ’21: 48%
Q4 ’21: 46%
Q1 ’22: 49%
Q2 ’22: 46%
Q3 ’22: 42%
Q4 ’22: 38%
Revenue in Productivity and Business Processes was $17.0 billion.
Revenue in More Personal Computing was $14.2 billion and decreased 19%.
Operating income was $20.4 billion GAAP and $21.6 billion non-GAAP
Diluted earnings per share were $2.20 GAAP and $2.32 non-GAAP
Here is Microsoft’s $MSFT December Quarter Revenue since 2006
2006: $12.5B
2007: $16.4B
2008: $16.6B
2009: $19B
2010: $20B
2011: $20.9B
2012: $21.5B
2013: $24.5B
2014: $26.5B
2015: $23.8B
2016: $25.8B
2017: $28.9B
2018: $32.5B
2019: $36.9B
2020: $43.1B
2021: $51.7B
2022: $52.7B
Microsoft Analyst’s Expectations and latest Price Target
Analysts expected Microsoft to report earnings per share of $2.27 and revenue of $52.94. Revenue growth for the Azzure segment is expected to grow by 37%.
On January 20, Mizuho reiterated Microsoft at Buy and reduced the price target from $305 to $290. Guggenheim on January 17, downgraded MSFT from Neutral to Sell and set a price target of $212.
I'm still fascinated by the small cap crashI continue to be fascinated by the fact that small caps once retraced their entire post-Covid move. What I mean is, the Russell 2000, which is 2,000 companies that are identified as small cap stocks, had such a terrible year in 2022 that they went BELOW were they were before Covid was ever a thing.
But why is this interesting?
Because roughly $5 trillion was spent to stimulate the economy in various ways after the first Covid panic occurred.
So let's quickly think about that: the Russell 2000 was, at one point lower last year than it was before an extra $5 trillion hit the economy.
I continue to wonder what this means: did the market overreact? Is it stagflation? Did the recent rise in interest rates suck that $5 trillion back up? The money supply is shrinking again?
There are tons of questions to consider and I also think it's important to wonder if this is still not the end. The following assets have still not yet retraced their covid highs:
• Tech stocks and the Nasdaq 100
• The S&P 500
• The Housing Market
• Inflation
• Price of food
• Price of average goods
Keep in mind, several other assets have retraced and crashed quite hard including:
• Vehicle sales and car prices
• Crypto market
• Treasuries/bonds
So the question remains: is there more carnage ahead or will the market stabilize from here?
The Fed does seem to be on a mission to crash food prices, inflation, and by extensions soaring housing. So one must wonder if the policy toward that eventually makes its way back into markets, including the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100, or if indeed the worst is over and now we are plateauing.
Part of me thinks its possible the Fed will get inflation under control while also preserving some of the market gains in tech, S&P 500, and more.
Time will tell.
So much more to think about.
S&P 2023CME_MINI:ES1!
What is to come and what is in store for the US economy? After our confirmed daily deathX in Q2 of 2022. What is to be expected for the duration of this guaranteed to be eventful 2023. Powell has been preaching a ''soft landing'' do you think we will see it unfold before our eyes? Maybe, maybe not however one thing is for certain.
Life within itself is perpetual and filled with uncertainties. of course we know the market does not care about what we think. However as traders its imperative that we weigh our risk. Perform our due diligence and trade what is IN front of us. With treasuries rising and the BOJ meeting Wednesday.
I myself will be taking a bearish stance with the potential outlook of a earnings recession coming into play. We will see what happens from there. A hedge to to target 3700 is my long term target with a stop loss of 4350 on the spread.
GBPJPY Getting Nazty In reality i believe the central banks deal the currency at whatever price they want and data / gdp is completely fake made up bs smoke screens to allow the market to get down get down. However, I wanted to also share the mecro economic view on why price may make some drastic moves. Enjoy!
Theory of fall until Critical high earnings day Main stocks report on the 27th and have very high estimates. These blue chips are at extreme lows and ready to go from oversold to bought. If they report positive it can really lead to a nice rally. Measuring the rsi daily it looks as if the time frame matches up to fall to oversold territory by the 26th 30rsi to rebound upwards to 70rsi. Just a thought. So sentiment would be short term bearish and mid to Longterm bullish for now.
Nasdaq still looking bearish.NASDAQ still has a possibility of dropping further in the first two quarters of next year . Given the fears of a recession next year , investors might go short through out the first half on 2023 until price hits the support level rallies to the up side. With the FED looking forward to tighten the interest rate to fight inflation , this might contribute to push NASDAQ further to the down creating more selling opportunities.
Tesla price action down trendFundamentally, the company is strong. From pandemic till now its earnings just keep growing.
Hence the company itself continues to make money.
Price action, however says its downtrending which makes sense in that Elon did sell off a lot for twitter.
Once that normalises, the price action will again follow the fundamentals.
As long as Elon is the lead, I can firmly believe tesla will continue to do good as it leads in continuous innovation.
If you're in long term investing, expect heavy bullish sentiment. If you're a trader, then ride the down trend.
GBPUSD H4 - Long SignalGBPUSD H4 - Breakout seen on cable, we covered this in the weekly watchlist video at the start of the week on the Youtube channel, and mentioned we really want to see this break and retest play. Hoping to see a corrective test of 1.23 support for long entries over the next 12-18 hours