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THE MOST IMPORTANT FOREX FUNDAMENTALS 📰 Hey traders, Even though I am a pure technician and I rely only on technical analysis when I trade, we can not deny the fact that fundamentals are the main driver of the financial markets. In this post, we will discuss the most important fundamentals that affect forex market. 📍Unemployment rate. Unemployment rate reflects the percentage of people without a job in a selected country or region. Rising unemployment rate usually signifies an unhealthy state of the economy and negatively affects the currency strength. 📍Housing prices. Housing prices reflect people's demand for housing. Rising rate reflects a healthy state of the economy, strengthening purchasing power of the individuals and their confidence in the future. Growing demand for housing is considered to be one of the most important drivers in the economy. 📍Inflation. Inflation reflects the purchasing power of a currency. It is usually measured by evaluation of the price of the selected basket of goods or services over some period. High inflation is usually the primary indicator of the weakness of the currency and the unhealthy state of the economy. 📍Monetary policy. Monetary policy is the actions of central banks related to money supply in the economy. There are two main levers: interests rates and bank reserve requirements. Higher interest rates suppress the economy, making the currency stronger. Lower interests rates increase the money supply, making the economy grow but devaluing the national currency. 📍Political discourse. Political discourse is the social, economical and geopolitical policies of the national government. Political ideology determines the set of priorities for the ruling party that directly impacts the state of the economy. 📍Payrolls and earnings. Payroll reports reflect the dynamic of the creation of new jobs by the economy, while average earnings show the increase or decrease of the earnings of the individuals. Growing earnings and payrolls positively affect the value of a national currency and signify the expansion of the economy. Pay closes attention to these fundamentals and monitor how the market reacts to that data. What fundamentals do you consider to be the most important? ❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section. Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Education
by VasilyTrader
5
SPX earnings recession, growth slow down.The fed hiked rates today by 0.75%. They have also moved to meeting by meeting data dependency. Since they've done both in one meeting there is the possibility that if inflation continues higher for a few months they will be unable or unwilling to cut rates to save the economy from the earrings recession likely on the way. In short the supply side situation is still not resolved leading to over supply of certain goods and under supply of others. Oversupply of goods in typical capital overproduction is what breaks the system due to over competition and thus lower prices. utility theory of value applies until extreme highs/lows of supply and demand shows the underlying labor relations. This imbalance will lead to a slow down in growth and thus an earning recession. Q3 & Q4 are thus likely a prolonged period of reduced demand coupled with oversupply. Such conditions will allow the FED to pivot, reduce rates and step up asset purchases late in Q4 or early Q1 as they will be reluctant to cut rates and "save" the economy from low growth while jobs numbers are high and inflation stabilizes in Q3 and Q4 even if that's what is needed it would be politically dangerous until after the election. If you're a bull you want the jobs numbers to decline quickly in a sharp recession allowing the FED to pivot sooner. If you're a bear you want inflation numbers to be sustained and plateau while jobs numbers slowly come down. I for one am bearish on the current overall trend and that is unfortunate since it means real pain ahead for actual people not just numbers on a screen. Always remember that little nugget is conditional to you making money anthropomorphic reader I am creating on the fly. Probably shouting into the ether on this one...which reminds me of a good long trade actually given the merge...hmm.
SP:SPXShort
by GreatScottTheMoon
2
SPY - GDP data, Recession Looming? 💀Hi Traders, Investors and Speculators Ev here. Been trading crypto since 2017 and later got into stocks. I have 3 board exams on financial markets and studied economics from a top tier university for a year. This week is the final week of trading for July and perhaps the most important week of the summer — with the Fed meeting, GDP data and earnings from almost a third of the S&P 500 on deck. Many investors, entrepreneurs and speculators (including myself) are worried about the potential of an economic recession and are hoping this week’s news storm will help direct their expectations and provide some clarity. According to Sam Stovall, the chief investment strategist at CFRA Research, most investors believe that Thursday’s GDP report will show a second quarter of decline, which is the unofficial signal of recession. It is his opinion that the Fed will most likely announce a 75-basis-point rate hike on Wednesday . Consumer index shows that consumers are extremely pessimistic, but they're spending more than they did last year. The number of jobs is recovering, but economic output is slowing sharply. This is causing a debate among policymakers and investors about whether the United States is close to, or already in, a recession — and if it isn't, whether persistent anxiety about one could be enough to make it a reality, as nervous businesses and consumers start to pull back. Could people "anticipate" the economy into a recession? US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo said earlier in July that she does not believe a recession is on the cards. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Sunday that we are definitely not in a recession but "...we're in a period of transition in which growth is slowing." Former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers (during an interview with CNN) espoused a different view — focused not on what the data is currently showing, but on what's likely to happen next . He stated that he believes a recession is most likely, stating : "When we've been in this kind of situation before, recession has essentially always followed." His concerns lies with the Federal Reserve. The central bank is rapidly tightening interest rates to throttle inflation, but a sharp pullback in economic activity as it boosts borrowing costs . While the Fed is hopeful it can engineer a "soft landing," where inflation comes down without a recession, Summers said he is skeptical. He mentioned that when inflation has been high and unemployment has been low, soft landings represent a kind of hopium. The final word: One definition of a recession is when the economy experiences two consecutive quarters of negative gross domestic product . In the first three months of the year, output declined at an annual rate of 1.6%. That raises the stakes for Thursday's first look at GDP data for the second quarter. The recession call that economists and policymakers watch for, however, comes from the National Bureau of Economic Research's Business Cycle Dating Committee. They define a recession as "a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months." In a recent blog post, the White House said that even though some maintain that two consecutive quarters of falling real GDP constitute a recession, that is neither the official definition nor the way economists evaluate the state of the business cycle. So don't expect the NBER to settle the back-and-forth debate on recession any time soon. It waited until June 2020 to announce that the coronavirus-induced recession started the previous February — and that was faster than usual. That means the recession debate is likely to persist for many months, no matter what's revealed later this week. If you're looking for an easy to understand guide on Wyckoff Method and phases, check out this Bitcoin idea: If you're looking for more info on Stop Hunting and algorithm trading, check out this idea on Cardano: To know the macro phase is to have power - this will eliminate fear and greed, and cancel out the noise you hear from news and paid "influencers". _________________ 👀Follow us here on TradingView for daily updates and trade ideas on crypto , stocks and commodities 📉 Hit like & Follow 🔔 We thank you for your support ! CryptoCheck
AMEX:SPYShort
by CryptoCheck-
35
General Mills Broke Out. Now It’s Pulled BackGeneral Mills has been a slow mover for years, but the Cheerios maker has gotten more interesting lately. The main pattern on today’s chart is the June 29 rally above $73. That was not only a new 52-week high. It was also a breakout above the previous all-time peak in July 2016. Next, consider how GIS pulled back and held the level yesterday. Has old resistance become new support? Third, stochastics have returned to an oversold condition. Finally, GIS has now beaten earnings estimates for two straight quarters amid a trend of Americans eating at home to overcome inflation. TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview for more. Important Information TradeStation Securities, Inc., TradeStation Crypto, Inc., and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., all operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. You Can Trade, Inc. is also a wholly owned subsidiary of TradeStation Group, Inc., operating under its own brand and trademarks. TradeStation Crypto, Inc. offers to self-directed investors and traders cryptocurrency brokerage services. It is neither licensed with the SEC or the CFTC nor is it a Member of NFA. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products, and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Please click here for further important information explaining what this means. This content is for informational and educational purposes only. This is not a recommendation regarding any investment or investment strategy. Any opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of TradeStation or any of its affiliates. Investing involves risks. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options, futures, or digital assets); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Before trading any asset class, first read the relevant risk disclosure statements on the Important Documents page, found here: www.tradestation.com .
NYSE:GIS
by TradeStation
1
Key leves lets see how the candles react with levelskey levels are some strong they can send the price up or down To create a leve first 1 Go to daily time frame and find 3 candles that touch exactly with red Horizontal line when you finish drawing all lines in daily time frame go to 4H time frame and do exact the same thing that you did in daily time frame if you found 2 key levels are to much near you can delete one take the one which touch lot of candles 2 the candles that are touching the levels called CCL : Candle that created the level CSL1 CSL2 CSL3 CSL4 CSL.......100 : Candle that Supported the Level when you finish doing that change time frame to 5 or 15 minut and check how the candles react with these KEY LEVELS
COMEX:GC1!
by FTraderx25
piling up bad news on semi conductor industryAMD is on a really important zone here. if this breaks, its going to be a disaster for it. we can see 59-60. most of the semi conductor names like AMAT, NVDA or just semi etf SMH are pretty close to 200 weekly moving range. we might see it next week. MU reported ok numbers for this quarter but their guidance is awful. • They slashed EPS by 40% and REV by 20% in guidance. • Operating margins of this quarter are inline but they guided way lower operating margins for next quarter which shows the pressure on their raw materials and inventory side. • Operating cash flows for this and next quarter are also a miss but thats not surprising considering their margins going down. • Also, CEO on call said the demand is weaker for semi’s right now which probably is why semi’s have been getting hit in the last week or so. The biggest issue i see on MU’s ER is declining mobile sales. They have had y/y declining sales and this might spill over to big names like APPL, QCOM, QRVO and also ad spend companies like APPS, TTD. If a new leg down starts in the market, chip manufacturers and mobile makers, ad spend and 5G network companies should be on watch. Also, the demand weakening comment should put a lot of pressure on NVDA and AMD as there will be doubts about them being able to fulfill their guidance with weakening demand. Especially AMD guided way higher last quarter. TSM put out news friday that majority of their big suppliers are scaling down their chip orders for rest of 2022. this consists of AMD NVDA AAPL cutting from 5-12% of their chips. please note that this post is not for monday trading, it is intended in general for the next 3-4 months.
NASDAQ:AMDShort
by savage_Trader
POWWThe ammunition industry has been far behind in production capacity to meet the enormous increase in demand. As long as crime continues to be a problem in America, there will be an outsized level of demand. POWW Just opened a state of the art ammo plant in Q2, revenues have grown from $0 in 2016 (startup) to $62.482 million in 2021; with company and analyst estimates putting 2023 @ $300-$320 million. Ammo Inc published revenue growth of 285% for 2022 on June 30, 2022 and price is up 8.44% as of today (July 1). NASDAQ:POWW Earnings - www.nasdaq.com Insider Activity - all buys, no sells - www.nasdaq.com Potential short-squeeze on the ESG nuts - www.nasdaq.com I am long on POWW as of today, and POWWP. POWW Preferred (POWWP is currently yielding 8.62%)
NASDAQ:POWWLong
by NordicVetMBA
1
Recession is just starting and the Sox bubble comes to an endWell recession started since Q1 and yes, Q2 will be ugly too Considering lowering of bitcoin. Considering lowering of Nvidia+AMD stocks earnings Considering lowering of TSMC, ASML earnings + end on market multiple Then Sox have to sink deeply to 550. The lowest value in 2009 is 168 so it's still 3 times higher than the lowest point and rich will remain rich. But latest buyer will suffer Thanks for checking my other insight and have nice trade
TVC:SOXShort
by Luncyan