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Earnings

SPY is forming a reversal narrowing ascending wedge patternSPYs recent rally has now started to form a narrowing ascending wedge pattern. This is a reversal pattern which could lead to a sell off once complete. The recent rally is not without its bearish news on the horizon. the market has become quite optimistic that it believes Fed will adjust rate hike to .25 for the first time. Fed has warned about this recent rally will lead to more pain later. The way companies have been beating estimates is by lowering EPS guidance. While I want this bear market to come to a close, we still have more trouble to work through. The Fed is focused on inflation which is high.
AMEX:SPYShort
by ratchet-mint
Microsoft (MSFT) Q2 2023 EarningsMicrosoft (MSFT) reported the second fiscal quarter 2023 financial results after the market close. EPS beat the low estimates but revenue came below expectations, Azure cloud unit showed strong growth. Here are the key points: Earnings per share came at $2.32 a decline from $2.48 a share a year ago but topping the expectations of $2.27. Revenue for the quarter came at $52.7 billion below the expectations of $52.94 billion. Revenue growth is 2% (YoY) which is the slowest pace since 2016. The Intelligent cloud revenue reported at $21.51 billion below the estimates of $21.43 billion. Server products and cloud services revenue increased 20% driven by Azure and other cloud services revenue growth of 31%. Azure grew 38% (YoY) topping the consensus of 37%. Here are the last quarters Azure growth: Q3 ’21: 48% Q4 ’21: 46% Q1 ’22: 49% Q2 ’22: 46% Q3 ’22: 42% Q4 ’22: 38% Revenue in Productivity and Business Processes was $17.0 billion. Revenue in More Personal Computing was $14.2 billion and decreased 19%. Operating income was $20.4 billion GAAP and $21.6 billion non-GAAP Diluted earnings per share were $2.20 GAAP and $2.32 non-GAAP Here is Microsoft’s $MSFT December Quarter Revenue since 2006 2006: $12.5B 2007: $16.4B 2008: $16.6B 2009: $19B 2010: $20B 2011: $20.9B 2012: $21.5B 2013: $24.5B 2014: $26.5B 2015: $23.8B 2016: $25.8B 2017: $28.9B 2018: $32.5B 2019: $36.9B 2020: $43.1B 2021: $51.7B 2022: $52.7B Microsoft Analyst’s Expectations and latest Price Target Analysts expected Microsoft to report earnings per share of $2.27 and revenue of $52.94. Revenue growth for the Azzure segment is expected to grow by 37%. On January 20, Mizuho reiterated Microsoft at Buy and reduced the price target from $305 to $290. Guggenheim on January 17, downgraded MSFT from Neutral to Sell and set a price target of $212.
NASDAQ:MSFT
by Eventstra
I'm still fascinated by the small cap crashI continue to be fascinated by the fact that small caps once retraced their entire post-Covid move. What I mean is, the Russell 2000, which is 2,000 companies that are identified as small cap stocks, had such a terrible year in 2022 that they went BELOW were they were before Covid was ever a thing. But why is this interesting? Because roughly $5 trillion was spent to stimulate the economy in various ways after the first Covid panic occurred. So let's quickly think about that: the Russell 2000 was, at one point lower last year than it was before an extra $5 trillion hit the economy. I continue to wonder what this means: did the market overreact? Is it stagflation? Did the recent rise in interest rates suck that $5 trillion back up? The money supply is shrinking again? There are tons of questions to consider and I also think it's important to wonder if this is still not the end. The following assets have still not yet retraced their covid highs: • Tech stocks and the Nasdaq 100 • The S&P 500 • The Housing Market • Inflation • Price of food • Price of average goods Keep in mind, several other assets have retraced and crashed quite hard including: • Vehicle sales and car prices • Crypto market • Treasuries/bonds So the question remains: is there more carnage ahead or will the market stabilize from here? The Fed does seem to be on a mission to crash food prices, inflation, and by extensions soaring housing. So one must wonder if the policy toward that eventually makes its way back into markets, including the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100, or if indeed the worst is over and now we are plateauing. Part of me thinks its possible the Fed will get inflation under control while also preserving some of the market gains in tech, S&P 500, and more. Time will tell. So much more to think about.
AMEX:IWM
by scheplick
13
S&P 2023CME_MINI:ES1! What is to come and what is in store for the US economy? After our confirmed daily deathX in Q2 of 2022. What is to be expected for the duration of this guaranteed to be eventful 2023. Powell has been preaching a ''soft landing'' do you think we will see it unfold before our eyes? Maybe, maybe not however one thing is for certain. Life within itself is perpetual and filled with uncertainties. of course we know the market does not care about what we think. However as traders its imperative that we weigh our risk. Perform our due diligence and trade what is IN front of us. With treasuries rising and the BOJ meeting Wednesday. I myself will be taking a bearish stance with the potential outlook of a earnings recession coming into play. We will see what happens from there. A hedge to to target 3700 is my long term target with a stop loss of 4350 on the spread.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Ra_way
Tesla price action down trendFundamentally, the company is strong. From pandemic till now its earnings just keep growing. Hence the company itself continues to make money. Price action, however says its downtrending which makes sense in that Elon did sell off a lot for twitter. Once that normalises, the price action will again follow the fundamentals. As long as Elon is the lead, I can firmly believe tesla will continue to do good as it leads in continuous innovation. If you're in long term investing, expect heavy bullish sentiment. If you're a trader, then ride the down trend.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by LittleSovi
STNE - Preparing for a Parabolic MoveBoth the chart pattern & recovering financial performance show that STNE is preparing for a parabolic move. I was wondering why this Brazilian Fintech Company, which had stunning financial performance in the previous years, nosedived from 90 to 10 in hardly one year. A decrease of almost 90% - that's scary for every investor. The reason I found is the bad debts - when macroeconomic situation of Brazil worsened people couldn't pay their debts. But now the STNE is recovering on the back surprising quarterly results and whopping estimates about future earnings. Let's discuss important strengths of STNE: TECHNICALS: Stock entered accumulation zone in March 2022 and is swinging between price range of 12 to 7 for the last 7 months. It is forming ascending triangle but still breakout hasn't occurred and Golden Cross is also awaited. Average volume has increased but big spikes which show institutional buying are also not yet witnessed. FUNDAMENTALS: Recent quarter has been tremendously good for STNE. Its post quarter income increased 140% and its revenues increased 10%. One surprising aspect about STNE is that its topline growth has never stopped despite negative incomes in many trailing quarters. Company's revenues increased 110% in Trailing Twelve Months (TTM) because of increasing number of customers and inspiring performance of its core payment-processing system. Its earnings estimate of $0.35 per share represents a change of +191.67% from the year-ago number. Another positive aspect is that Warren Buffet has this stock in his portfolio due to its high risk-reward potential. Hence, I am keeping this stock in strict monitoring and waiting for breakout and golden cross. Another good quarter of earnings can be real fuel for its market performance.
NASDAQ:STNELong
by starringinvestors
7
Chart and fundamental analysis of Iris Energy Limited (IRIS)The operating result for the last quarter was published recently, on November 30, 2022. 1. Graphic Analysis As the company's core activity is Bitcoin mining, it is important to analyze the correlation with the price of Bitcoin. As you can see in the graph below, most of the time the correlation is positive. It seems to me that the price is at the end of wave 5, about to reverse the downtrend, which has lasted since the beginning. The DMI SMI Oscillator exhibits a bullish descending wedge. This same interpretation can be obtained on the RSI: 2. Fundamental analysis Net income has held steady for quite some time at $72 million. As of Q1 since year 2022, it has declined to minus -$2 million and has since been stable. The same reasoning can be applied to Earnings per Share versus Estimated Earnings per Share . The balance sheet remains healthy, with assets greater than liabilities. Even if there is a need to settle the net debt after the sale of assets, it would be comfortably honored. With regard to cash flow, money from third parties continues to decrease, which is positive. Money spent on investments follows a negative flow. A negative value of Cash From Investing Activities can show poor performance, but it can also be a sign of increased investment activities. While cash from operating activities remains stable at $4 million. The point to note negatively is the free cash flow, which has drastically reduced to -$210 million.
NASDAQ:IRENLong
by andre_007
JNJ Buy Long on StrengthJNJ fundamentally is a cross between Big Pharm and Consumer Staples Recent Earnings were solid not spectacular but the latter is not expected here. Technically, JNJ climbs higher without much volatility, At the moment it is rising in a small cycle within the supertrend. Strength is increasing and some bearish momentum is exhausting. This is a low-beta stock and it does not react much to the larger broad market. I see this as a good time for a LEAP option for early 2024 at a strike 15% above the current price.
NYSE:JNJLong
by AwesomeAvani
What’s happening in semiconductors? The next chapterWe recently wrote about semiconductors from the perspective of capital spending and government policies aimed towards encouraging further capital spending and ultimately semiconductor independence. However, we’d be remiss to not at least touch on some of the current geopolitics. A simplified look at the semiconductor supply chain If one simplifies a rather complex set of interrelationships across countries, we can see a triangle with three distinct corners1. Foundries: These companies are manufacturing the physical chips. There are not too many individual players, as the capital expenditures to enter this space are extremely high. Additionally, they don’t all have the same capabilities. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) is well known for being able to reliably manufacture the most advanced chips in the world. Samsung Electronics, Intel and Global Foundries represent other important players. Intellectual Property Companies: These companies make and sell different layouts and designs. ARM, the company currently owned by SoftBank, is one example with a huge presence across the internet of things (IoT). Electronic Design Automation (EDA) Tools: EDA was only $10 billion in 2021, a small part of the overall $595 billion semiconductor market, but it is essential if chip manufacturers are to determine if a design is feasible prior to production. Cadence, Synopsys and Mentor Graphics are the three leading players in this space. Together, they control about 70% of the global market. Behind each of these points on the triangle is a lot of history embedded as experience, and it is important to recognise this since it is what makes it particularly challenging for an outside player—in this case China—to just copy it. The ASML example Lithography is the term used for the practice of etching the appropriate designs on the silicon that allow for the functional operation of the transistors. More transistors spaced more closely together, simply put, means a more efficient and capable chip. Today’s Apple M1 chip contains 16 billion transistors2. The degree of precision engineering required to be able to put 16 billion transistors on something that is not the size of multiple city blocks, much less could fit within a laptop or smartphone, is one of the most impressive feats of human ingenuity that the world has ever seen. The short version of the story is that a company in the Netherlands, ASML, was in a position to take a big risk in the 2000’s—the pursuit of extreme ultraviolet lithography (EUV). EUV was needed because there needed to be shorter wavelengths of light used to almost shave atom by atom away from the silicon to make the transistors small enough, basically 5-nanometres. This light is generated by flashing a specific type of laser 50,000 times per second at molten tin3. Developing EUV was so capital intensive that only a single company did it: ASML. Components for the machines that do this fill four 747 airplanes and are sourced from specific companies all over the world. Operating the machines at scale requires an incredible depth of experience4. Given the flavour of the topic, you have probably already guessed the geopolitical implications. Some of the components of the EUV machines do come from the United States. Then, there is the relationship between the US government and the government of the Netherlands. As a result of those discussions and where we are presently, EUV machines are not being sent to China. The Nvidia case In August 2022, the US took a further step to limit China’s artificial intelligence (AI) ambitions through further restrictions on the export of very specific semiconductors5: Nvidia will be restricted from selling the A100 graphics processing unit into China, Hong Kong and Russia Nvidia will also be restricted from selling its forthcoming H100 series of graphics chips into these same markets users of the A100 include Alibaba, Tencent and Baidu—the companies that provide some of China’s largest cloud computing infrastructure Nvidia is the most visible company with respect to these types of chips, and as of this writing it had the largest market cap amongst the semiconductor companies. It would not surprise us if other firms that have chips of similar types of capabilities could be named in the future. Conclusion: Can China ‘go it alone’? We might take a step back at this point and think, wait, China has massive resources. Why don’t they just make their own chips? We don’t discount the fact that China absolutely could make its own chips, but it would be more a question of how long it would take and how advanced those chips could be. The EUV process was something that took both massive investment and about 20 years. ASML is able to manufacture the machines that it does and support companies like TSMC operating at scale because they have the benefit of learning from all the mistakes along the way. China can certainly make efforts along the path, but simply spending money is not going to lead to an effective EUV process that can manufacture the most cutting-edge chips at scale—the key being ‘at scale without a high defect rate.’ During the four years ended 2024, China is slated to complete 31 major semiconductor factors. By 2025, 40% of the world’s capacity to produce chips with 28-nanometre nodes is expected to be in China6. This tells us that China is making big investments away from the absolute cutting edge—and we have to remember that the world does need those chips as well. It will be very difficult for any country to fully take in all aspects of the semiconductor supply chain, but we are seeing notable efforts to that end in 2022 that will likely continue. Sources 1 Source: Yang, Zeyi. “Inside the software that will become the next battle front in US-China chip war.” MIT Technology Review. 18 August 2022 2 Source: Wikipedia Apple 3 Source: Thompson, Clive. “Inside the Most Complicated Machine on the Planet.” MIT Technology Review. Volume 124, Number 6, November/December 2021 4 Source: Thompson, November/December 2021 5 Source: Lin, Liza & Dan Strumpf. “Latest U.S. Chip Curbs Deliver Setback to China’s AI Ambitions.” Wall Street Journal. 1 September 2022 6 Source: Strumpf, Dan & Liza Lin. “China Bets Big on Basic Chips in Self-Sufficiency Push.” Wall Street Journal. 24 July 2022
NASDAQ:SOX
by aneekaguptaWTE
1