Earnings
Topped for next 2 yearsMany indications here that HP Inc. has topped throughout 2022. I expect the reaction to their upcoming earnings report on May 31st will be negative, whether or not they report decent earnings. Forward P/E will be revised downward.
Technical Analysis from 2012 shows we have 3 major rallies.
The length of price movement and time extended in each of these rallies are closely related to one another.
This indicates correlation - meaning these are subwaves of a larger wave and are therefore connected and shaped by one another.
A retracement back down to the .382 fib line is a minimum retracement which still indicates a -45% drop from current prices.
Connecting the tops and bottoms forms a nice channel.
We recently overshot the top of the channel and swung back down below indicating a rejection of further price increases.
This "throw over" is a characteristic of end moves.
RSI indicator shows major divergence between waves iii and v of wave 5. Also indicating a top.
Currently HP Inc. is the highest valued tech stock in the computer hardware industry if you use a stock screener like Finviz.com.
I found this very surprising. Again, earnings are on May 31st and the charts are foretelling a selloff.
Currently many investors are hiding in tech stocks that they find "safe".
So ask yourself, is it likely that HP will be selling more computers in 2023 than in 2021 and 2022?.. or is it more likely the opposite?
When is the last time you looked into buying an HP computer or saw an office supplying their staff with HP?
They have nothing that separates them from other computer hardware companies like Apple, Dell, Lenovo, Logitech, etc.
Is there a bullish argument to be made? I am struggling to find one looking into a future of higher prices and lower consumer spending.
Market Cap = 35.57B
Income/Earnings = 6.52B
Effective P/E ratio = 6.16
Forward P/E ratio = 7.90 (currently priced for increasing sales but should be revised downward soon as a result of inflation and future expected returns declining)
*Not financial/investment advice, although I find this to be a very compelling case. I do currently own Put options on this stock. Trade at your own risk.
Should you buy Futu Holdings Ltd stock? 💰💥We are not surprised by the recent downward movement, as the company reported a record net loss in the first quarter, and the U.S. is tightening regulations on Asian companies, which does not help matters.💥
The company has not performed well in the last three months, so the stock has lost more than 20% since the beginning of the quarter, and investors are concerned that this is the first time the company has made a mistake and is looking at an even bigger drop
We disagree with investors, we think that despite the poor results and a rather bearish share price, Futu Holdings Limited will manage to recover faster than anyone thinks.
Here's why we think so:
✅ FUTU has high-quality earnings.
✅ FUTU has become profitable over the past 5 years, with earnings growth of 76.2% per year.
✅ FUTU's earnings growth over the past year (112%) has outpaced the capital markets sector by 62.5%.
✅ FUTU has more cash than total debt.
✅ FUTU's debt to equity ratio has fallen from 139.5% to 51.6% over the past five years.
✅ FUTU's debt is well covered by cash flow from operations (55.5%).
✅ FUTU's management team is seasoned and experienced (average tenure of 5.2 years).
✅ Shareholders have not experienced significant dilution in the past year.
Kraft Heinz Company forming a giant cup with handle.NASDAQ:KHC
Earning Good
Currently forming double top, wait for it to dip. RSI14 should not go below 45.95. Should break rising wedge to form channel.
Aggressive entry buy on dip between EMA50 and EMA100 or
Buy on Breakout of Pattern: 44.95-46.88
Target Price: 64.54
Market Punishing Palantir Palantir $PLTR earnings came in significantly below expectations, missing by >44.5% while revenue was slightly above projection, beating estimates by nearly $3 mil (+0.66%).
The market immediately reacted with PLTR losing > -27%.
Risk-off environment. Unprofitable, risk-on tech-oriented speculative equities are being punished in a tightening fiscal environment.
Current trend, down 84% from ATH in Jan 2021. Next fib below current price & ATH is 0.118, giving a PT of $2.87 at next earnings.
Will Microsoft let itself be affected by negative events? ⚔️We tend to see triangles everywhere, we realize that this may be redundant for some, but all modes of chartist analysis are good to go.
We also realize that the triangle Microsoft is forming is not the prettiest, but if it is truly a compression triangle, then we could be looking at an upside breakout.
Only time will tell, I must admit that taking positions in these complicated times for everyone is a risky bet, which may or may not be taken for a good performance.
Only two paths are possible, but which one will Microsoft choose?
What would be the best case scenario in the worst case? 💥It is important to remain realistic and avoid any scenario that will surely not come true in the current times.
With the different events that the financial world is currently undergoing, it is better to remain very cautious about the Apple share price, even if Apple's financial results are better than those of other companies in the market, analytically we can see a slowdown in the rise of the latter.
Everything will be decided in the coming week, if we break the bullish channel , we could reach lower and lower points and maybe enter a bearish trend , but let's be optimistic, we think that Apple's share price, will now consolidate between 179 and 154, to take off again once the events calm down....
A golden opportunity or inopportunity? 🕛It's all going to play out in a few weeks, we are in a very long "ascending triangle" , in this type of chartist pattern (triangle entering from the bottom), we are more likely to break it on the upside than the downside.
But with BTC events continuing to be volatile, even though we can see that XRP has a slight tendency to not follow the same path as BTC, it remains consistent with BTC.
If Bitcoin does not break out of this pattern, then XRP could eventually fall back to much lower supports.
I am still very bullish on XRP, as the battle between XRP and SEC continues, although the scales are tipping more in favor of XRP, if XRP wins this battle against SEC, then XRP could reach its ATH much faster than one might think.
Aveng Back to recoverySince the Aveng stock split trading view was struggling to display the stock split, happy to see this corrected
What I see
Past 7 years a consistent down trend, with possible reversal now in 2021.
Rounding bottom a great reversal or short term bullish pattern with statistically excellent results
Local top in October 2021 followed by a pull back. Pullback hitting the golden pocket zone R15.50 or 0.618 fib level
Based on work on hand of close to R30 billion, and hitting the 0.618 fib level I believe R15.50 is a support level.
MY price target is as follows
R30 at the 0.618 Fib level (Most likely target after earnings report)
R48 at the 1.618 Fib level (I believe this is an achievable target if they decide to start declaring dividends)
Prons and cons in cryptocurrency Cryptocurrencies have the potential to reshape the financial world as we know it, and to question the very existence of traditional financial infrastructure. But what are the pros and cons of cryptocurrencies? How do you decide which one to invest in—or whether to invest at all?
If you’re a little confused by cryptocurrencies, don’t worry. We’re here to break down the advantages and disadvantages of cryptocurrency, so you can learn everything you need to know. And if you’re still stuck, check out our guide to Cryptocurrencies for Beginners.
1. High risk—and the potential for high rewards
There are more than 10,000 cryptocurrencies on the market today and each one has its own particular quirks. But all cryptocurrencies have a few things in common—like their tendency to experience sudden spikes (and drops) in value. Prices are driven primarily by the supply of coins from miners and the demand for them by purchasers. And these supply-demand dynamics can result in hefty returns. The price of Ethereum, for example, roughly doubled from July 2021 to December 2021—quite the payday for investors who got on board at the right time.
2. The blockchain technology underlying cryptocurrency is inherently secure
Some of the major benefits of cryptocurrencies aren’t linked to the currencies themselves, but to the infrastructure that supports them. That’s the blockchain—the decentralized data-storage ledger that tracks every transaction undertaken on it. Once you make an entry in the blockchain, it can never be erased. And with the blockchain stored decentrally across multiple computers, no hacker can access the entire chain in one go; any information stored in it is safe for good.
3. Bye bye traditional banks—hello to a fairer, more transparent financial system
By and large, our financial system revolves around third-party intermediaries who process transactions. This means that if you make a transaction, you’re placing your trust in one or more of these intermediaries—and the recession of the early 2000s made a lot of people wonder if that was a good idea. The blockchain and cryptocurrencies offer an alternative. They can be viewed by anyone, anywhere, so you can take part in the financial markets and make transactions with no intermediaries whatsoever.
4. Crypto trades around the clock
Another advantage that cryptocurrencies have over banks is that the crypto markets are always open. With coins being mined and transactions being recorded around the clock, you don’t have to wait for the NYSE, NASDAQ or any other exchange to start trading for the day if you want to buy, sell, or trade crypto. This has made such an impact that regular stock exchanges are looking into the option of trading stocks outside of regular banking hours as well—although that might still be some way off. So, for investors who are on the go 24/7, crypto might the best way to generate returns outside of normal working hours.
5. Cryptocurrencies could help investors beat inflation
Cryptocurrencies aren’t tied to a single currency or economy, so their price reflects global demand rather than, say, national inflation. But what about inflation of cryptocurrencies themselves? As an investor you can rest easy, for the most part. The number of coins is capped, so the amount available can’t spiral out of control, thus, no inflation. Some coins (like Bitcoin) have an overall cap, others (like Ethereum) have an annual cap, but either way, this approach keeps inflation at bay.
Netflix Gap Down X 2!Netflix Gap Down X 2!
2 gap downs were identified with the most recent gap down (81.69) on April 20, 2022. The other gap down (95.78) occurred on January 20, 2022. Both gap downs occurred AFTER earnings.
Position-Neutral. On one hand I am bullish on NFLX because it is oversold and volume is relatively low on the daily chart. As aforementioned, NFLX has two gaps to fill. I wonder how long will it take for the gaps to fill. I also wonder about the changes Netflix is making to earn back the business of the subscribers it loss. The latter part of my reasoning is what makes me neutral on the overall sentiment of this particular stock.
Netflix is currently trading well below its 200 day moving average (514.22). NFLX end of day stock price was 199.52 (28 April 2022).
What are your thoughts on NFLX?
Peace & Prosperity,
Al
www.tradingview.com
Aterian Golden Cross Squeeze EventThere are more shares circulating currently of ATER stock than exist and no matter what the price shows, this will be revealed at some point.
ATER = Reg SHO and Brokers/MM don't have shares!!
Is ATER on the Reg SHO Threshold list? - ✅
Are ATER FTD's stacking up? - ✅
Are your own brokers having issues locating shares - ✅
Is ATER 's Utilization 100% (Yes, since March 8th which was 50 Days ago)- ✅
Is ATER 's Short Interest over 15% (Yes, its over 40 .61%) - ✅
**Is ATER 's Cost to Borrow high? (Yes, its 230.97% CTB Average or 124% on Fintel) -**✅
Is ATER #1 on Fintels Short Squeeze Score? Yes - ✅
Is ATER #1 on Gamma Short Squeeze Score? Yes - ✅
Does it have massive and growing support? Yes - ✅
This is an asymmetrical bet. At $4 to $5, ATER is closer to the floor than the ceiling.
ATER is not at risk of going out of business, and shorts messed up getting greedy.
ATER is a real company and your downside risk is $2.1 the recent 52 low but your upside is the Moon.
BA - On thin ice!Dear subscribers, today we would like to inform our subscribers about the current developments in Boeing. NYSE:BA
In our last article, our analysts reported about a more bullish scenario for boeing. However, the current earning results indicate that boeing might not have finished its correction.
Additionally, the probability that a major C wave might head our way increased considerably.
Wall Street analysts were expecting Boeing to post a revenue of 16.17 billion and a slight loss of $-0.1877 per share . However, the management announced a few hours ago that the company only managed to achieve 13.99 billion in sales. In addition, the company generated a total loss of $-2.75 per share, significantly more than estimated.
That the published results were so far off analysts' estimates is a very bad sign for the Boeing stock.
Our team recently discovered a very bearish scenario on the chart, that would result in further sell-offs.
Before we present our scenarios, we would like to point out to investors that we currently hold no positions in Boeing and did not announce any long positions in our last article.
Technical explanation of the Elliot Wave structure:
Since the last all-time high at $446.01, the stock was troubled by the corona crisis and multiple 737 MAX airplanes crashed in disastrous accidents. Due to this boeing suffered a loss of nearly -80 % and the sell-off stopped at exactly $89.00. Since that low, the stock recovered strongly to $278.57 until fears about the future of the company started to emerge again. More than a year later the stock is trading at barely $170.
According to the elliot wave theory, we can assume that the movements of the last years point towards a very large wave 1-2 setup. The bad news however is that boeing will correct to lower levels very likely. The warning signs are piling up that the surge two years ago was only a corrective B wave. This means that we are in a C wave and would again break below the last resistance at $89.00.
Boeing could again face a loss of more than -40% and the stock would enter another massive crisis. Unfortunately, the long-term indicators would support this prediction. The buying volume is exhausted on a monthly basis and a negative cross could soon be confirmed.
Should the important support at $141.58 be breached, prices below $90 must definitely be expected. This red marked line is the last resistance that would guarantee an imminent recovery of the share. However, it seems to be only a matter of time until Boeing will break through this line.
There is a small chance that the current movements represent multiple wave 1-2 setups. We give this scenario an extremely low probability as the stock has corrected tremendously.
We will not open any positions until we receive a clear bullish signal. The current overall market situation also does not support an investment in this stock. However, if Boeing reaches prices below $90, a long-term investment is highly recommended. In the next few years, we forecast large increases in Boeing and a long-term bull market.
As already mentioned, the current market situation does not allow an investment in this stock and only after a clear bullish reversal an investment could be considered.
Disclaimer:
According to legal regulations, Mendenmein-Capital is not a certified or legally recognized financial advisor and any transactions based on published content are at your own risk.
Mendenmein-Capital cannot be held liable for any losses whatsoever according to the legal regulations in it's country of residence.
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If you have questions related to a specific stock or the Elliot Wave theory, feel free to contact us.
EURGBP LONG Almost ready!!!!!! We can see on the 4HR that EURGBP has started a new strong accumulation phase with series of HL & HH. We will want to be involved in this institution buys when price pulls back into 0.83200 Areas, and hold this trade into 0.85000 if not more. RR on this trade is 1:6.8RR.
Fundamentals:
GBP: Retail sales in the UK dropped 1.4% mom in March of 2022, following an upwardly revised 0.5% fall in February and much worse than market forecasts of a 0.3% decline, as affordability starts to weigh and consumers spend less due to rising prices.
EUR: In Europe, the case for rate hikes as soon as July gained support following several hawkish comments from ECB officials, most recently Luis de Guindos. Meanwhile, caution prevailed ahead of the second round of the French presidential elections this Sunday, with incumbent Macron leading polls.
Netflix, What happened?Overview
After poor revenue release and news of losing subscribers in large quantities, Netflix has posted two major losses in recent times. This brings the valuation of Netflix shares down a total of nearly 70% from November highs.
The future
At this rate, the stock has been poorly rated by many analysts and has strongly bearish momentum. The question now is whether or not Netflix will try to implement a new way of doing business or alter current operating methods to try and bring its value back. In the event that Netflix is able to find a viable solution to return to successful business, we may see golden opportunities to buy back into such a large company with huge potential. However, given the rise in popularity in other video streaming services, it's unlikely that Netflix will be able to continue on its success by solely providing video streaming services without a major change in operation.