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Newmont Corp | NEM | Long at $48.00While gold prices have soared recently, gold mining stocks have lagged. Newmont Corp NYSE:NEM , the world's largest gold mining corporation, may be undervalued if the miners take off to catch up to the gold demand/price. Currently sitting near $48.00 and at a historical moving average that it will need to break to show a true trend reversal, NYSE:NEM is in a personal buy zone. Now, the price may break down at the simple moving average and test the patience of shareholders, but the long game may benefit those who can tolerate the volatility. Target #1 = $57.00 Target #2 = $71.00
NYSE:NEMLong
by WorthlessViews
Is MSFT Stock A Buy, Sell, or Hold?MSFT is one of the few tech stocks which trades close to all-time highs, seemingly oblivious to the brutal valuation reset that swept through the sector In the most recent quarter, MSFT delivered strong results when factoring in the tough macro environment. MSFT grew revenues by 7% (10% constant currency) and earnings per share by 10% (14% constant currency) - two achievements not necessarily typically seen under difficult economic circumstances. MSFT generated $8.64 billion of that operating income from its productivity and business processes segment, which houses its Office 365 product suite among others. As to be expected, LinkedIn revenue growth came in light at just 8%, a reflection of lower hiring demand. MSFT generated another $9.4 billion in operating income from its intelligent cloud segment. Azure grew at a 27% clip, far surpassing the 16% growth seen at competitor Amazon Web Services Investors have been cautious on the ever-valuable cloud business ever since the cloud titans all revealed cloud optimization efforts undertaken by its customers. On the conference call, management implied that they may see easing headwinds as they pass the anniversary of those optimization efforts, stating that “at some point, workloads just can't be optimized much further.” It is possible that MSFT’s partnership with ChatGPT’s creator OpenAI has something to do with that, as management noted that while they do not consolidate any operating losses due to them holding a minority equity interest, they do indeed recognize revenues generated from OpenAI using their cloud services. The other cloud titans did not offer the same bullish commentary surrounding the end of cloud optimization. MSFT continued to see headwinds from its more personal computing segment, which saw revenues decline by 9% though still managed to generate $4.24 billion in operating income. At some point the comps should become easier here, but that may still be a couple of quarters away. MSFT ended the quarter with $104.5 billion in cash versus $48.2 billion in debt. I note that the company also has another $9.4 billion in equity investments (the announced $10 billion investment in OpenAI is set to take place in parts throughout the year). The company continues to pay a growing dividend and conducted $5.5 billion in share repurchases in the quarter. It is not too often that one can get long term innovation and have the majority of free cash flow returned to shareholders as well. Looking ahead, management has noted that overall growth may struggle due to the prior year’s quarter being a tough comp, with that being their “largest commercial bookings quarter ever with a material volume of large multiyear commitments.” Management did, however, guide for up to 27% in Azure growth, which seems to imply that the bottom for that segment may be very near if not already passed. Investors may be worried about how ongoing tech layoffs may impact Office 365 growth, but management appeared unfazed by this risk, citing that they continue to see strong demand for their product suites. MSFT continues to show why it is a favorite tech stock in growth allocations, as it has shown resilient growth in the face of tough macro. The strong fundamentals have helped the stock sustain a premium valuation multiple, as the stock recently traded hands at just under 35x earnings. Valuation remains the most obvious risk with that stock trading something between 50% and 100% higher than GOOGL depending on how many adjustments applied to the latter. With the stock trading so richly on present earnings, the stock could go nowhere for 7-10 years and still be trading at around 15x earnings at that time. Unless MSFT manages to sustain double-digit earnings longer than consensus, the stock will likely need to sustain a rich multiple in order to beat the market index. I note that this risk does not appear as large at the aforementioned mega-cap peers due to not just lower valuations but also due to MSFT appearing to already be operationally efficient with operating margins in excess of 40%. Another risk is that of potential disruption to its enterprise tech business. Wall Street appears to view the stock as being the strongest operator in any of its competing markets, but I do not share such views. In particular, I view competition from the likes of CrowdStrike (CRWD),and GOOGL’s productivity suite as being underestimated risks. It is possible that MSFT is about to face long- term disruption just as its growth story is decelerating - which would have a catastrophic impact on multiples. Due to the near term upside from OpenAI, MSFT hit ATH and now its in pullback mode, I took huge profit and waiting for more confirmation
NASDAQ:MSFT
by moonypto
2
Ranger Energy on the pullback. This is why I'm doubling down. Ranger Energy Services, Inc. NYSE:RNGR is on an 11% pullback to the $12 support following spectacular Q2 results , with a surprise in their EPS of 47%. This is one of my highest conviction plays in 2024 for the reasons that I explain below. In June, this stock surfaced to my attention due to significant insider buying activity. Essentially, the CEO, Bodden Stuart, and the CFO, Cougle Melissa, bought a total of $150,000 in shares in Ranger Energy. This is a significant value to me, given that the share price declined by 37% since October last year. My investment style favors contrarian insiders buying activity, after a significant selloff in the share price of their company. However, I consider many other things that I cover below. In Q1 2024, they had very bad results . Their EPS was down by 140% compared to what the analysts estimated. Most shareholders, especially with micro-cap companies, barely go into the details behind such a decline. They simply have a look at the EPS and Revenue results, and move on. In my case, I analyze every single detail from their quarterly reports, and earnings call transcripts. I reached the conclusion that the selloff since October was unjustified. My first argument is the unprecedentedly bad winter, which directly affected their Q1 results. As a brief side note to readers new to this company, Ranger Energy provides well completion and production services to E&P companies operating on the largest basins in the US. The very first thing that E&P companies do during bad weather is pause the work of their subcontractors, which in the case of Ranger Energy means zero revenue. An additional argument that I have for the selloff was a safety related event that resulted in 75 rig-days with zero revenue. Just let that sink in; 75 days with absolute 0 income, but having to cover the business' operating expenses, like salaries and equipment leases. During the earnings call, management discussed the decision to pivot towards services that provide a higher margin. I really favor this decision, given that I prefer companies who focus on margins, rather than volumes. Why, you might ask? Well, in the event of a recession, guess which one is going to survive? Exactly, none of them, but I will be making money anyways by shorting the one that focuses on higher volume, low margin services. Coming back to Ranger Energy, I highly value their decision to focus on pump-down services, rather than production, given the high number of new competitors bidding for production contracts at rates that are simply not profitable. In regards to their price action, I am very confident in the $8.5 and $9.2 support levels, given the high number of times that the share price bounced there. Additionally, in their Q2 earnings release, they reported an EPS that was 47% above analysts' estimate. The share price easily broke the $12 resistance level. Now, with the recent pullback following unfavorable results from the US jobs report, the share price is back on the $12 price mark. I highly believe the share price will touch the $15 resistance before the end of the year, given the strategic initiative to focus on high-margin services, and the lack of one-off events, like safety incidents or harsh winter conditions. I am planning to buy more shares and call options expiring on December this year. As a side note, the rocket symbol on the price chart represents my entry point this year.
NYSE:RNGRLong
by Deep_F_Value
1
Stock Pricing Above Fundamentals Ahead of EarningsWeekly Chart: NYSE:ANET reports today after the close. The stock has a short-term topping formation that is nearly completed. The prior runs went speculative but then corrected. The top is similar to the previous peak and the depth of correction is likely to be similar. The stock has simply moved beyond fundamental levels. This is NOT likely to turn into a long-term top unless there is something substantially wrong with the company and its products. To become an intermediate-term top, it must have lower highs and lower lows. That is not in the chart at this time. Ideally, the stock needs to shift sideways to build a much stronger support level to sustain a longer-term uptrend. HFTs are in the mix and may gap the stock on earnings news.
NYSE:ANET
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
Render Token / RNDRThe price of RNDR is $1.83 today with a 24hour trading volume of 180 million dollars. This represents a 4% price increase in the last 24 hours and a 333% price increase in the past 30 days! Render token is a distributed GPU rendering network built on top of the Ethereum blockchain, aiming to connect artists and studios in need of GPU compute power with mining partners willing to rent their GPU capabilities out. Backed by parent company OTOY, the RNDR team is based out of Los Angeles, with team members throughout the world. The RNDR advisory board boasts industry leaders such as Ari Emanuel (Co-Founder and Co-CEO, WME), JJ Abrams (Chairman and CEO, Bad Robot Productions) and Brendan Eich (Founder and CEO, Brave Software and BAT) bulls broke 0.8, 1.2 and 1.6 resistance and ready to claim 2$. I got into rndr wen it has 220 million market-cap and here we are at half a billion dollar mc. as you see market is in correction phase which is normal and healthy so don't panic if you see couple of red candles after 300% pump
RLong
by moonypto
37
Topping Pattern Ahead of Earnings: AAPLNASDAQ:AAPL needs to have a great earnings report on August 1st but it has a topping formation at the moment, after huge speculation from promoting something that is not yet proven to increase sales. You can't take hope to the bank. Speculation occurred as investors assumed that AI would sell more new iPhones in droves. This earnings report will reveal reality one way or another. There is a negative divergence between the price trend and accumulation/distribution suggesting there may have been quiet rotation against the retail speculation.
NASDAQ:AAPL
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
Lululemon's Drop Has Me Completely SurprisedI’m still in awe at the drop happening across fashion stocks like NASDAQ:LULU , NYSE:NKE , and even Under Armour. The other week, I wrote about Nike and now I realize I must comment on the drop of Lululemon, which is down 50% this year and now has its lowest PE ratio in over decade all while doing about $1 billion in Free Cash Flow last holiday season. So what’s going on? First, let’s look at their declines since the start of the year: Nike is down 33% year-to-date, Lululemon has plunged 51%, and Under Armour has dropped 21%. I did some research into why this might be happening, as earnings and margins are being challenged, and found the following three reasons: 1. The athletic fashion market has become fiercely competitive, maybe more than ever, with new brands entering the fray and established brands expanding their offerings. Companies like Athleta, Fabletics, and various direct-to-consumer startups are aggressively targeting the same market segments that giants like Nike and Lululemon dominate. 2. New shopping mechanics on Instagram and Amazon has dramatically altered the retail landscape. Instagram's shopping features and Amazon's expansive marketplace have changed how consumers discover and purchase athletic apparel. Brands now need to invest heavily in digital marketing and influencer partnerships to stay relevant. This shift has favored agile, digitally native brands that can quickly adapt to new trends and customer behaviors. This is a big deal. 3. Wall Street's relentless focus on short-term performance has placed additional strain on these companies. Investors demand constant growth, often pushing companies to prioritize immediate gains over long-term stability. This pressure can lead to cost-cutting measures that impact product quality and innovation. For instance, there are concerns that Nike may have compromised on quality control to meet earnings expectations, resulting in dissatisfied customers and negative reviews. While I don’t have a position on in any of these stocks, I am absolutely watching Nike and Lululemon. At these levels, and if they continue to drop, I believe a trade will open up. I’ll share more details soon about this! Lululemon is on my watchlist!
NASDAQ:LULU
by scheplick
24
Weekly Recap & Market Forecast $SPX (July 21st —>July 26th)Market Forecast (Updated 07/21/2024) **SPX**-Rotation into small caps and industrial stocks continue, which led to more sell off in SPX We have a lot of earnings coming up this week so that can shift the direction of the market as well. Next resistance $5655and $5688 Next support $5521 and 5428 Weekly Sentiment = Bearish **Chart Analysis:** () **Dollar Index:** DXY- Looks like the dollar index found support as the euro weakens. Which means we could see further drop in SPX. Next resistance $105.90 Support $104 Sentiment = Crossover to upside **Put to call Ratio: 1.31 —> 1.15 Next FOMC date: July 31, 2024** **Fear & Greed Index: 56—>49**
SP:SPX
by WallSt007
DJT falls on stratospheric valuations SHORTDJT, the Trump media company, had a massive run up after the DWAC merger only to fade and fall with the SEC filing showing minimalistic revenue and negative earnings. It moved up in meme fashion but is now falling as fundamentals come to light. In five months the namesake will be able to sell if there is any remaining value. In the meanwhile, the board will likely refuse an early sell permission because that would like cause a " long squeeze". DJT is a good short right now no matter the locate and carry fees which are very high. I was long DWAC and am now short DJT using the profits from the merger volatility. Selling volumes are rising showing the longs are beginning to get squeezed. The relative trend indicator shows a strong move down.
NASDAQ:DJTShort
by AwesomeAvani
7
TSLA does the upcoming RoboTaxi announce change things LONGTSLA has the accouncement upcoming. Price will pump for sure. Will it then dump or change the trend altogether? The forecasts are there. The tea leaves and crystal balls will tell the rest of the story. In the meanwhile, I will take long trades to play this in the immediate term. One million taxis making $250 / per day every day per each is serious potential future growth perhaps at the expense of UBER and LYFT which may get a bearish bias in the short term on this upcoming announcement. Playing the news sometimes works.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by AwesomeAvani
5
ETH’s influence on ERC20 products like YFIInfluence on ERC20 Products ETH’s influence on ERC20 products like YFI can be seen in several ways: Liquidity: ETH’s large market capitalization and liquidity provide a foundation for ERC20 tokens like YFI to tap into, enabling efficient and reliable transactions. Smart Contract Interoperability: ETH’s presence ensures that smart contracts, including those for ERC20 tokens like YFI, can interact seamlessly with each other and with the broader Ethereum ecosystem. Developer Adoption: ETH’s widespread adoption and established developer ecosystem encourage the creation and development of new ERC20 tokens, including DeFi protocols like YFI, which in turn benefits from ETH’s infrastructure. In summary, ETH’s influence on ERC20 products like YFI is indirect yet significant, providing a stable and liquid foundation for the Ethereum ecosystem and enabling the development and growth of #DeFi protocols like #Yearn.finance.
Long
by Victor_Ledney
$TSLA Retesting Critical Support Range After Earnings MissIf you've been following the analysis, we've hit quite a few short-term targets... NASDAQ:TSLA NASDAQ:TSLA | So far, we've seen a 40%+ move from our entry at $145. Targets: $180 , $200 , $260 , $300, $450 After 29 weeks of analysis with consistent levels, a plan for scaling in, where to stop, and that big-picture thesis - this earnings leading into the RoboTaxi event will paint the rest of this picture. Now let's take a look at the earnings readout: Optimus Development • A significant new addition to Tesla's innovative portfolio is the development of the Optimus robot, which Elon Musk recently announced is slated for low production by 2025 and high production by 2026. • Optimus, expected to be utilized internally by Tesla as early as next year, represents a leap into robotics that could revolutionize labor and operational efficiency within Tesla’s manufacturing processes. • It would be great to learn on the earnings call about the initial integration of Optimus into Tesla’s ecosystem, its production timeline, and the expected financial and operational impacts of this groundbreaking development. Autonomous Driving • The Q2 earnings call is anticipated to shed light on Tesla’s progress with its Full Self-Driving (FSD) capabilities and the Robotaxi service. The delay in the Robotaxi rollout, while initially a setback, has allowed Tesla additional time to refine and enhance its autonomous technology. • Updates about the integration of FSD into the Robotaxi design -- which is central to Tesla's strategy in autonomous driving -- will be of interest. Tesla's vast real-world driving data fuels its AI, making continuous advancements possible and setting Tesla apart in the race towards fully autonomous vehicles. • Elon Musk's vision for transforming Tesla into a leader in mobility-as-a-service (MaaS) will also be a focus. With Tesla's autonomous tech, the company is poised to dramatically reduce transportation costs, making mobility more accessible and affordable. The introduction of the Robotaxi and potential partnerships with existing ride-hailing services could significantly expand Tesla’s market reach and influence. Energy Storage • Tesla's energy storage segment is likely to be a focal point of the Q2 earnings, following its impressive growth. In 2023 and 2024, this segment's contribution to gross profit notably rose, accounting for less than 8% of revenue in Q1 but potentially reaching or exceeding 14% if revenue doubles sequentially as anticipated • Last quarter, energy storage constituted 10.9% of Tesla’s $3.69 billion in gross profit, a significant increase from 3.7% in Q1 2023. The segment boasts a higher margin profile than Tesla’s automotive operations, achieving over a 24% gross margin in the first quarter. Despite this impressive growth, the expected surge in Q2 revenue will likely not substantially impact EPS, due to the automotive margin stabilizing around 18% • Additionally, the role of energy storage in Tesla's long-term strategy to create a more sustainable energy ecosystem will be examined, with expectations for clear plans on how Tesla intends to leverage its tech capabilities to maintain leadership in this high-potential market. China Market • Tesla's strategy and performance in China will be another significant topic in the Q2 earnings report. Given the dynamic and highly competitive nature of the Chinese EV market, Tesla is expected to outline how it is adapting its business strategy to address local competition and regulatory challenges. This includes detailing efforts to optimize its Shanghai Gigafactory's output and innovations specific to the Chinese market • Interest in Tesla’s customer engagement and marketing strategies in China, especially how Tesla plans to compete with local EV giants like NYSE:NIO , will be high. Furthermore, Tesla’s approach to managing supply chain issues, tariffs, and geopolitical tensions that could affect its operations will be critical. Earnings Estimates Q2 2024 • Sales $24.7B -- down 1% YoY • GAAP EPS $0.48 -- down 38% YoY FY Outlook • Sales $99.4B -- up 33% YoY • GAAP EPS $2.18 -- down 49% YoY Forward looking, the future looks bright...
NASDAQ:TSLA
by PennyBois
2
GOOG: Risk for HFT Gap on EarningsThe mighty NASDAQ:GOOG has hit the Market Saturation Phase and its advertising AI is one of the primary problems. Alphabet is losing small business advertisers in droves as prices skyrocket to advertise on Google Ads while results are dismal for the advertisers. This run down is due to speculation that is not based on financial data. It may find support at this level, but it is vulnerable to an HFT gap down. It is never a good sign to see selling a few days ahead of an earnings report. A gap up would be based on Year over Year, not quarterly improvement.
NASDAQ:GOOG
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader