If Minor B was today, final top is Tuesday stillLast night's analysis of forecasting Minute wave B said models liked it at 4 hours long, secondary agreement at 6, and third was 3 hours. It was only 2 hours old at that time of writing. If Minute B was the top today it finished at 5 hours old. The top was 40 cents above the prior high, which can only happen in a B wave which does not help rule a scenario out.
The low achieved by what could be Minute wave C and subsequently Minor wave B was hit on cue today, the levels never mattered since they were based on Minute wave A's movement and not Minute B.
Last night's analysis said Minute wave C in Minor wave B could be 2-4 hours long, which I thought was too short and especially hard to achieve if we did not gap down at the open. I did not think a 65 point drop in a few hours could happen today if not catalyzed by the CPI report premarket. Well it surely dropped in 2 hours. I stated the bottom for Minute wave C was favored between 4320-4345, and liked the window between 4320-4335. Sure enough, the low was 4325.43.
All of these things working out support the case for Minor wave B down to have completed and now we are in the final leg up with Minor wave C. This final leg up was initially projected to see a market top around 4400, based on the adjustment made on Minor wave A's close yesterday. The top was projected to occur by Tuesday.
Right now, Minor wave C up appears to last 16-22 hours which is likely a top on Tuesday between 4420-4448. This is quite a bit higher than the initial projection and above all prior 3rd quartile datapoints. Does not mean this is impossible, but it set up to overachieve the "normal" movement.
Once Intermediate wave 4 is complete, Intermediate wave 5 will likely take the market down through all of earnings season. For the first time in a while this could be a bad earnings season, not sure if companies are finally or only starting to see less profit. The Fed will meet and possibly hike in this middle of Intermediate wave 5 down as well. Israel conflict may not last long enough to impact economies and force the Fed to be more hawkish than initially suggested this week. Oil is rising. PPI went up. CPI went up. Initial job claims dropped well below expectations. Initial forecast is Intermediate wave 5 down to likely last through November placing a bottom around 4100. As this would also conclude Primary wave 1 down, December could begin a 2-3 month rally during Primary wave 2 up.
