LULU, a stock to watch!Lululemon stock (LULU) has traded down into the $230's for the first time since the COVID-19 Crash of 2020. I believe that LULU is a stock to keep your eye on, for a few reasons.
- The stock is trading at a 20x p/e whereas its historical p/e is in the mid 40's.
- Margins for the company have all been steady, and remain an industry leader.
- Lululemon is still set to see 10% CAGR for EPS in the next 5 years. (consensus)
- The stock is seeing a severe correction, on par with its past decade corrections.
Above is bullish sentiment on LULU, and can be considered the "bull/base case"
Personally, I have not turned bullish on LULU yet, but with the levels it is reaching it has most certainly caught my eye and has been added to my watch list. While the stock is seeing oversold levels, I think the midterm outlook can still remain bearish for Lululemon. Below are reasons why the short/midterm outlook for LULU may not be optimal.
- Weaker forward projections compared to last 5 years.
Though LULU is expecting 10% CAGR EPS for the next 5 years, that is just a fraction of its last 5 year CAGR of 38.55%. While projections are still positive, they have certainly dampened compared to recent years' growth.
- Macroeconomic environment.
Though the economy remains hot/fine for now, there have been warning signs flashing of a rising unemployment figure across the country. With suboptimal economic conditions, the average consumer may cut down on expensive Lululemon clothing.
These Macro conditions may also continue to dampen the economy, which can cause an overall market correction, where LULU would likely follow the sentiment.
Overall, I believe that LULU offers significant reward, but the shorter term horizon is still worrisome for Lululemon and the global economy. Lululemon is a leader in the Retail Trade sector and dominates when it comes to profitability. The stock is definitely one to keep an eye on if it continues to get crushed.
Regarding technicals, I am watching this demand zone around the 200 level. The stock could trend down to this area, and reach close to COVID-19 lows if sentiment does not change. This area could also offer significant R/R for an entry point.
Disclosure: I currently hold no position in LULU stock, and have never been a shareholder.
