IBM Earnings PlayTechnical Analysis NYSE:IBM
On the 4-hour chart, IBM’s stock price is currently trading at approximately $260.50. Applying Bollinger Bands, the price is hovering near the 20-period moving average, with the bands moderately contracted, indicating relatively low volatility. The stock has shown resilience above the lower Bollinger Band, suggesting potential for an upward move if bullish momentum builds post-earnings. A recent green candle indicates buying interest, but the stock remains below the upper band, which sits near $270.00, signaling room for upside if catalysts align.
Target
Wait for bullish confirmation post-earnings.
Entry LONG : Around $262.00, Targeting $270.00.
Secondary Target: $275.00.
Resistance Levels: $265.00, $270.00, $275.00.
Support Levels: $255.00, $250.00, $245.00.
The price is testing the 20-period moving average, and a strong earnings report—particularly with positive AI or cloud revenue updates—could push the stock toward the upper Bollinger Band at $270.00 or higher. Conversely, a disappointing earnings report or weak guidance could see the price drop toward $255.00 or lower, especially if broader market conditions weaken.
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Earningsplay
BOEING EARNINGS ABOUT TO PRINT Fundamental Outlook NYSE:BA
Boeing is heading into its Q1 2025 earnings with notable challenges. Ongoing quality-control issues, supply chain disruptions, and a reported negative profit margin are creating headwinds. Additionally, recent negative publicity surrounding production delays and regulatory scrutiny may further dampen investor sentiment. While potential defense contract wins or positive updates on 737 MAX production could provide a lift, the risk of a disappointing earnings report remains high, especially in a volatile aerospace sector.
Technical Analysis (Using Bollinger Bands Strategy)
On the 4-hour chart, Boeing’s stock price is currently trading at $175.46, as seen in the provided chart. Applying Bollinger Bands, the price has recently broken below the lower band, signaling a potential oversold condition but also confirming a strong bearish momentum. The price has been trending below the 20-period moving average within the bands, with the bands widening—a sign of increased volatility. This setup suggests a continuation of the downward move, especially with the recent sharp decline highlighted by the red arrow in the chart.
Target
Wait for bearish confirmation
Entry SHORT: Around $165.50, Targeting $152.00.
Secondary Target: $146.00.
Resistance Levels: $180.00, $185.00, $188.60.
Support Levels: $165.00, $155.00, $148.00.
The price is struggling to reclaim the 20-period moving average, and with earnings approaching, a breakdown below $170.00 could accelerate the decline toward $165.00 or lower. However, a positive earnings surprise—such as strong delivery numbers or improved guidance—could push the price back toward the upper Bollinger Band near $185.00.
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Solid Q1 Earnings amid Tariff Turbulence Spike S&P500 VolatilityAs Q1 earnings roll in, Wall Street is digesting a rare divergence: strong fundamentals across much of corporate America paired with deepening investor anxiety. While companies are largely beating expectations, looming tariff shocks and tech sector fragility are suppressing sentiment—and returns.
Tactical positioning is crucial at times like this. This paper describes the outlook for the coming earnings season and posits options strategies that astute portfolio managers can deploy to generate solid yield with fixed downside.
Resilient Earnings Growth in the Current Season
The Q1 2025 earnings season is underway, and early results show resilient growth despite an unsettled backdrop. According to a Factset report , with about 12% of S&P 500 firms reporting so far, 71% have beaten earnings estimates and 61% have topped revenue forecasts.
Blended earnings are tracking about +7.2% year-over-year, on pace for a seventh-straight quarter of growth. However, only two sectors have seen improved earnings outlook since the quarter began (led by Financials), while most others have faced modest downgrades.
Forward guidance is also skewing cautious – roughly 59% of S&P companies issuing full-year EPS forecasts have guided below prior consensus, reflecting corporate wariness amid macro uncertainty.
Source: Factset as of 17/April
Financials Front-Load the Upside
The first wave of reports was dominated by major banks, which largely delivered strong profits and upside surprises. Volatile markets proved a boon to trading desks: JPMorgan’s equities trading revenue surged 48% to a record $3.8 billion, and Bank of America’s stock traders hauled in a record $2.2 billion as clients repositioned portfolios around tariff news.
Source: Factset as of 17/April
These tailwinds – along with still-solid net interest income – helped lenders like JPMorgan and Citigroup post double-digit profit growth (JPM’s Q1 earnings up 9% to $5.07/share; Citi’s up 21% to $1.96). FactSet notes that positive surprises from JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and peers have boosted the Financials sector’s blended earnings growth rate to 6.1% (from 2.6% as of March 31), making it a key contributor to the S&P 500’s overall gains.
Even so, bank executives struck a wary tone. JPMorgan’s CEO Jamie Dimon cautioned that “considerable turbulence” from geopolitics and trade tensions is weighing on client sentiment. Wells Fargo likewise warned that U.S. tariffs could slow the economy and trimmed its full-year net interest income outlook to the low end of its range. Across Wall Street, management teams indicated they are shoring up reserves and bracing for potential credit headwinds if import levies drive up inflation or dent growth.
Tech Titans Under Scrutiny
Attention now turns to the yet-to-report mega-cap tech firms, which face a very different set of challenges. Stocks like Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet – collectively heavyweights in the index – have been battered by the escalating trade war, eroding some of their premium valuations.
Apple’s share price plunged over 20% in early April on fears that new tariffs could jack up the cost of an iPhone to nearly $2,300, underscoring these companies’ exposure to global supply chains.
The tech sector’s forward P/E remains about 23 (well above the market’s 19), leaving little room for error if earnings guidance disappoints. With Washington’s tariff barrage and retaliatory threats casting a long shadow, Big Tech finds itself on the front line of the global trade war, suddenly vulnerable on multiple fronts. Any cautious outlook from these giants – which account for an outsized share of S&P 500 profits – could heavily sway overall forward earnings sentiment.
Market Context and Reaction
Despite solid Q1 fundamentals, equity markets have been whipsawed by macro headlines. The S&P 500 slid into correction territory, falling roughly 10% since the start of April and about 14% below its February peak, as investors de-rated stocks in anticipation of tariff fallout and a potential economic slowdown. Consumer inflation expectations have skyrocketed with risk delaying rate cuts in the near-term.
This pullback has tempered valuations somewhat – the index’s forward P/E has eased to ~19 (down from ~20 at quarter-end) – even though consensus earnings estimate for 2025 have only inched down. Notably, the high-flying “Magnificent Seven” mega-cap stocks that led last year’s rally are all sharply lower year-to-date (Alphabet –20%, Tesla –40%), a stark reversal that has dented market breadth and sentiment.
Source: Factset as of 17/April
Investors are rewarding only the strong earnings winners: for instance, Bank of America’s stock jumped over 4% after its earnings beat, and JPMorgan rose 3% on its results. Such reactions imply the market is discriminating – strong execution is being acknowledged even as the broader mood remains cautious.
Source: Factset as of 17/April
Hypothetical Trade Setup
Solid corporate performance is offset by significant macro risks, warranting a nimble and selective approach. While recent positive earnings may provide a short-term boost, downbeat sentiment and concerns over future tech earnings could limit gains.
In this uncertain environment, investors may adopt a fundamentally driven view that the S&P 500 could rise in the near term due to strong earnings. However, the upside appears limited, supporting the case for a bullish call spread.
Earnings release dates for the Super 7
With major tech firms set to report earnings in early May, investors can consider the 2nd May MES Friday weekly options. A narrow bull call spread offers a higher probability of profitability. In this hypothetical setup, the long call is at 5,250 and the short call at 5,390, resulting in a breakeven point of 5,312 at expiry. This position requires net premium of USD 315/contract (USD 62.5/index point x 5). The position returns a max profit of USD 385/contract for all strikes > 5,390 and a max loss of USD 315/contract for all strikes < 5,250.
This strategy is most successful when the S&P 500 rises slowly. A simulation of this scenario using the CME QuikStrike Strategy Simulator has been provided below.
MARKET DATA
CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme .
DISCLAIMER
This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
Comerica (NYSE: CMA) Reports First Quarter 2025 Earnings ResultsComerica Incorporated (NYSE: NYSE:CMA ), together with its subsidiaries, a company that provides financial services in the United States, Canada, and Mexico reported her first quarter 2025 earnings results today before the bell.
The results are available on the Investor Relations section of Comerica's website: c212.net
Technical Outlook
Prior the earnings, shares of Comerica Incorporated (NYSE: NYSE:CMA ) are up 1.28% in Monday's premarket session. The asset is trading in tandem with the support point of $52, a break above the 38.2% Fib level could set the pace for a bullish reversal albeit the stock was already consolidating as hinted by the RSI at 46.
Financial Performance
In 2024, Comerica's revenue was $3.20 billion, a decrease of -8.79% compared to the previous year's $3.50 billion. Earnings were $671.00 million, a decrease of -21.43%.
Analyst Forecast
According to 21 analysts, the average rating for CMA stock is "Hold." The 12-month stock price forecast is $67.43, which is an increase of 27.35% from the latest price.
Just In: The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS) Set for Breakout The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS) shares is set for a breakout today as the firm smashes Q1 Estimates leading to a 2.45% surge in Monday's premarket trading.
Reports Overview
Goldman Sachs delivered a strong first-quarter performance, beating Wall Street expectations on both earnings and revenue, thanks to a record-setting quarter in equities trading. The bank posted earnings of $14.12 per share versus an expected $12.35, with revenue reaching $15.06 billion compared to forecasts of $14.81 billion.
Financial Performance
In 2024, The Goldman Sachs Group's revenue was $52.16 billion, an increase of 15.34% compared to the previous year's $45.23 billion. Earnings were $13.48 billion, an increase of 71.52%.
Analyst Forecast
According to 16 analysts, the average rating for GS stock is "Buy." The 12-month stock price forecast is $593.43, which is an increase of 20.02% from the latest price.
Technical Outlook
Prior our last analysis on NYSE:GS stock, the asset is already approaching the short term resistant point and a break above that pivot would cement the path for a bullish campaign for NYSE:GS shares . As hinted by the RSI at 43, NYSE:GS shares has more room to capitalize on the dip and pull on a bullish campaign today.
All eyes are set on the $520 level, should NYSE:GS shares break that pivot, a bullish breakout might be inevitable.
JPMorgan Chase Reports Earnings Today, Topping Q1 EstimatesShares of JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: NYSE:JPM ) are currently up 3% in Friday's premarket session as the asset tops Q1 estimates.
The company reported better-than-expected fiscal first-quarter results as big banks kicked off the new earnings season.
The banking giant reported earnings per share (EPS) of $5.07 on revenue of $45.31 billion, each up from $4.44 and $41.93 billion, respectively, a year ago. According to estimates compiled by Visible Alpha, some analysts had expected $4.64 and $43.55 billion. It generated $23.4 billion in net interest income (NII), above the $23.00 billion consensus.
Shares of JPMorgan were up 3% immediately following the release of Friday's report. They entered the day down roughly 5% year-to-date but up about 16% in the last 12 months.
"The economy is facing considerable turbulence (including geopolitics), with the potential positives of tax reform and deregulation and the potential negatives of tariffs and 'trade wars,' ongoing sticky inflation, high fiscal deficits and still rather high asset prices and volatility," JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said. "As always, we hope for the best but prepare the Firm for a wide range of scenarios."
Dimon wrote in his annual letter to shareholders this week that he expected the Trump administration's tariffs "will slow down growth."
technical Outlook
As of the time of writing, NYSE:JPM shares are already up 1.5% with the asset trading above the support point. A break above the 1-month high pivot could set the course for a bullish campaign eyeing the $260- $280 region.
With the last close RSI at 46, NYSE:JPM shares has more room to capitalize on the dip and make a comeback prior the earnings beat.
Breaking: Delta Air Lines, Inc. (NYSE: $DAL) Surged 8% TodayShares of Delta Airlines, Inc (NYSE: NYSE:DAL ) surges 8% today after the company reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.46 on operating revenue of $14.04 billion. Analysts polled by Visible Alpha had forecast $0.39 and $13.89 billion, respectively.
The company which provides scheduled air transportation for passengers and cargo in the United States and internationally reported passenger revenue per available seat mile (PRASM) of 16.78 cents and cost per available seat mile (CASM) of 19.69 cents; analysts had expected Delta to lose about 2.8 cents per ASM transporting passengers. Delta and domestic rivals United Airlines (UAL), American Airlines (AAL), and Southwest Airlines (LUV) all were profitable but lost money flying passengers in 2024.
Delta said it expects second-quarter revenue to rise or decline by 2% and adjusted EPS from $1.70 to $2.30, below the $2.41 consensus. The airline said it is not affirming or updating full-year projections at this time "given current uncertainty."
Analyst Forecast
According to 14 analysts, the average rating for DAL stock is "Strong Buy." The 12-month stock price forecast is $64.56, which is an increase of 68.30% from the latest price.
Technical Outlook
As of the time of writing, NYSE:DAL shares are up 6.69% trading within a bullish pattern. The asset has more to run as hinted by the RSI at 31. NYSE:DAL 's chart pattern shows a bullish engulfing candlestick and a break above the $45 pivot point could cement the path for a bullish move to the 1-month high.
Apparatchik Trump Says 'No.. More Pain' Ahead of Amazon EarningsPresident Trump's new tariffs have had a significant negative impact on Amazon's stock performance, revenue, and earnings, primarily due to increased costs and supply chain disruptions.
Here below is a detailed analysis of these effects.
Impact on Amazon's Stock Performance
Amazon's stock has seen substantial declines following the announcement of Trump's tariff plan. The company's shares dropped nearly 7% within two days of the announcement and are down nearly 21% year-to-date. These tariffs have exacerbated existing challenges for Amazon, which was already struggling in early 2025 with a 13% decline in stock value during the first quarter. The broader market also suffered, with technology stocks experiencing sharp declines as investors reacted to fears of higher costs and inflation.
Revenue Challenges
Amazon's reliance on Chinese suppliers for merchandise has made it particularly vulnerable to the newly imposed tariffs. Over 50% of Amazon's top third-party sellers are based in China, and many of their products are subject to hefty import taxes, including a 34% tariff on Chinese goods. These tariffs increase landed costs for a significant portion of Amazon's inventory, forcing sellers to either absorb the additional expenses or pass them on to consumers through higher prices. This could lead to reduced consumer demand, as higher prices may deter shoppers from purchasing goods on Amazon's platform.
Additionally, the elimination of duty exemptions on minor imports—previously advantageous for discount platforms such as Temu and Shein—has disrupted Amazon's competitive pricing strategy. While this change may level the playing field among e-commerce platforms, it also raises operational costs for Amazon's marketplace vendors who had relied on these exemptions.
Earnings Pressure
The tariffs are projected to slash Amazon's annual operating profits by $5 billion to $10 billion due to increased merchandise costs. Goldman Sachs estimates that these costs could rise by 15% to 20%, further straining profitability. While Amazon has historically maintained lower prices compared to competitors, absorbing these increased expenses without raising prices significantly may be unsustainable in the long term.
Moreover, fears of inflation resurgence due to Trump's trade policies could further dampen consumer purchasing power. This would likely lead to lower sales volumes and additional pressure on profit margins across Amazon's retail operations.
Potential Mitigation Strategies
To counteract these challenges, Amazon may implement several measures:
Vendor Negotiations. The company could negotiate with suppliers to share the burden of increased input costs rather than bearing them entirely.
Price Adjustments. Selective price increases on certain products may help offset rising costs without alienating customers entirely.
Supply Chain Diversification. Shifting sourcing away from heavily tariffed regions like China or focusing more on domestic suppliers could reduce exposure to trade disruptions.
Focus on Services. Amazon’s cloud division, AWS, contributes significantly to its operating income (58% in Q4 2024) and remains largely unaffected by tariffs. Increased emphasis on AWS could help mitigate losses from retail operations.
Technical challenge
The main technical graph indicates on Bearish market in development, with nearly 30% potential to further decline, down to major 10-year average support.
Conclusion
Trump’s tariffs have created substantial headwinds for Amazon by driving up costs and disrupting its supply chain. These challenges have led to stock declines, reduced revenue potential, and significant earnings pressure. While Amazon is exploring mitigation strategies such as vendor negotiations and diversification, the long-term impact will depend on how effectively the company adapts its operations amidst ongoing trade tensions.
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Best 'Apparatchik' wishes,
PandorraResearch Team 😎
Breaking: nCino, Inc. (NASDAQ: $NCNO) Tanks 33% In Premarket nCino, Inc., (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:NCNO ) a software-as-a-service company, that provides cloud-based software applications to financial institutions in the United States and internationally saw its shares plummet 32.93% in Wednesday's Premarket trading amid slowing growth in cloud banking and mortgage markets.
nCino shares slumped in after hours trading Tuesday (April 1) extending the loss to Wednesday's (April 2) premarket trading in the wake of guidance that anticipates slowing growth in the core cloud banking segments and mortgage markets, though a reacceleration is envisioned for fiscal year 2027.
in the current fiscal year (2026) first quarter, top-line growth should be in the high single-digits year over year, to a range of roughly $139 million to $140.7 million, which would be a slowdown from the 14% growth rate notched in the most recent quarter. Fiscal year guidance also disappointed investors, who sent the shares down by 28%.
The company also announced the appointment of Sean Desmond as CEO, succeeding Pierre Naudé, who becomes executive chairman.
Financial Performance
In 2024, nCino's revenue was $540.66 million, an increase of 13.45% compared to the previous year's $476.54 million. Losses were -$37.88 million, -10.55% less than in 2023.
Analyst Forecast
According to 13 analysts, the average rating for NCNO stock is "Buy." The 12-month stock price forecast is $40.38, which is an increase of 43.60% from the latest price.
Technical Outlook
As of the time of writing, NASDAQ:NCNO is down 32.93% in Wednesday's premarket trading. the asset's daily price chart depicts a bearish pennant or a bearish symmetrical triangle that resorted to the 33% dip. NASDAQ:NCNO shares close Tuesday's session with a RSI of 39.77 which is weaker for a trend reversal and also potent for a continuous trend.
There is a possible chance of a gap down pattern evolving which is a very strong bearish pattern. For now investors will have to wait for a favourable grounds mostly likely the 25 RSI pivot to capitalize on the dip.
GameStop Corp. (NYSE:GME) to add BTC as a Treasury Reserve AssetThe price of GameStop Corp. (NYSE: NYSE:GME ) shares saw a noteworthy uptick of 7% in Tuesday's after hours trading, primarily based on the news that the firm is set to add Bitcoin as its Treasury Reserve asset.
The asset bounced from it's psychological support zone aiming for a move to the $35- $40 price point. This move would be feasible if GameStop Corp. (NYSE: NYSE:GME ) shares break pass the $30 resistant point.
In light of that manner, GameStop Corp. (NYSE: NYSE:GME ) also is set to announced earnings report Tuesday, March 25, 2025, after market close.
About GameStop Corp. (NYSE: NYSE:GME )
GameStop Corp., a specialty retailer, provides games and entertainment products through its stores and ecommerce platforms in the United States, Canada, Australia, and Europe. The company sells new and pre-owned gaming platforms; accessories, such as controllers, gaming headsets, and virtual reality products; new and pre-owned gaming software; and in-game digital currency, digital downloadable content, and full-game downloads.
Week of March 24 Earnings Plenty of earnings this week from major companies this week including:
Monday
NASDAQ:LUCD
NASDAQ:OCX
NASDAQ:SKYX
NYSE:EPAC
NASDAQ:DFLI
Tuesday
NASDAQ:CSIQ
NYSE:GME ( get your 1DTE calls ready )
NASDAQ:RUM
NASDAQ:PAVM
AMEX:ACCS
Wednesday
NASDAQ:DLTR
NYSE:CHWY
NASDAQ:CAN
NASDAQ:IVA
NASDAQ:MVIS
Thursday
NASDAQ:BITF
NYSE:SNX
NASDAQ:LULU
NYSE:OXM
NASDAQ:PDSB
Friday
NASDAQ:IPA
NASDAQ:KPLT
NASDAQ:SLE
NASDAQ:ZSPC
NASDAQ:SBC
Follow for weekly earnings reports!
General Mills, Inc (NYSE: $GIS) Set to Report Q3 Earnings TodayGeneral Mills, Inc. (NYSE: NYSE:GIS ) manufactures and markets branded consumer foods worldwide is set to report Third Quarter Earnings results today before market opens. With shares moderately up 0.85% in Wednesday's premarket trading.
Founded in 1866 and headquartered in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The company operates through four segments: North America Retail; International; Pet; and North America Foodservice.
Financial Performance
In 2024, General Mills's revenue was $19.86 billion, a decrease of -1.18% compared to the previous year's $20.09 billion. Earnings were $2.50 billion, a decrease of -3.75%. As investors awaits for the earnings reports NYSE:GIS shares are also waiting for build up momentum to surge breaking above the 1-month high acting as resistant point.
Similarly, should NYSE:GIS faced selling pressure, the 65% Fibonacci retracement level acting as support point would broken leading to consolidatory move to the 1-month low albeit the stock is still bearish at the moment with only Gold surging to new All time high yesterday.
Analyst Forecast
According to 17 analysts, the average rating for GIS stock is "Hold." The 12-month stock price forecast is $66.13, which is an increase of 9.41% from the latest price.
Marvell Technology, Inc. (MRVL) Dips 16% On Earnings ReportMarvell Technology, Inc. ( NASDAQ:MRVL ) faced a sharp 16% decline in premarket trading on Thursday following the release of its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings report. While the semiconductor giant exceeded Wall Street’s expectations on both revenue and earnings per share (EPS), investor sentiment soured due to an uninspiring outlook.
Strong Growth, Weak Guidance
Despite the stock's decline, Marvell delivered solid earnings results for Q4:
- Revenue: $1.82 billion (+27% YoY), surpassing analyst consensus.
- Adjusted EPS: $0.60 per share, up from $0.46 a year ago.
- Data Center Segment: Revenue surged 78% YoY to $1.37 billion, reflecting strong AI infrastructure demand.
However, the market’s reaction was driven by Marvell’s fiscal Q1 guidance, which projected:
- Revenue of $1.875 billion, within analysts' expectations but lacking significant upside.
- Adjusted EPS forecast of $0.56 - $0.66, failing to excite investors anticipating a stronger AI-driven catalyst.
Technical Analysis
From a technical perspective, NASDAQ:MRVL now trades below key moving averages, reinforcing a bearish short-term trend. The stock’s RSI (Relative Strength Index) currently sits at 38, signaling weakness but not yet oversold territory, suggesting sellers may still have control.
Dell Stock Under Pressure as AI Costs Weigh on MarginsShares of Dell Technologies (NYSE:DELL) slipped in premarket trading following the company’s latest earnings report, which signaled potential margin compression in its fiscal 2026 outlook. The decline comes despite robust AI server growth projections, highlighting a complex landscape of opportunities and challenges for the tech giant.
Margin Compression and Tariff Uncertainty Weigh on Sentiment
Dell's financial outlook raised investor concerns as the company forecasted a 100 basis-point decline in adjusted gross margins for fiscal year 2026. This pressure stems largely from rising costs associated with AI server expansion and soft PC demand, which continues to be a headwind.
AI Growth Provides a Silver Lining
Despite the margin headwinds, Dell remains a major player in the AI infrastructure space, forecasting an impressive 53% year-over-year surge in AI server shipments to $15 billion.
Earnings Beat But Revenue Miss
For the fourth quarter, Dell reported:
- Adjusted EPS of $2.68, exceeding estimates of $2.53 per share.
- Revenue of $23.93 billion, slightly below the expected $24.56 billion.
- Forecasted Q1 adjusted EPS of $1.65, below analyst estimates of $1.83.
- Projected revenue between $22.5 billion and $23.5 billion, missing expectations of $23.72 billion.
- Full-year 2026 adjusted EPS expected to be $9.30**, slightly above consensus at $9.29.
Technical Outlook
NYSE:DELL stock closed down 6.26% in Thursday’s session and extended losses in Friday’s premarket trading, currently down 2.23%. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 41.16, reflecting a weak technical setup.
If the post-earnings sentiment worsens, Dell’s 1-month low could serve as a critical support pivot. Conversely, a break above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level could signal a bullish reversal, paving the way for a potential rebound.
NVIDIA's Momentum Analysis: Strong Fundamentals & TechnicalsUnpacking NVIDIA's powerful Q4 2025 performance with record revenue of $39.3B (up 78% YoY) and explosive Data Center growth of 93%. Technical analysis reveals strong support at the 50-day MA ($130-$134) with resistance at the all-time high ($153.13). Recent price action shows bullish momentum with key technical indicators pointing to continued strength. Essential viewing for investors navigating NVIDIA's post-earnings trajectory.
02/26 Special GEX Outlook: NVDA Earnings, GEX LevelsNVDA Earnings Announcement 🔥
NVIDIA reports earnings today, after market close, and this release could create significant movement. Let’s dive right into the charts and see what the technicals are telling us!
With earnings so close, I typically look only at the nearest expiration, which in this case is 02/28 (Friday).
The implied move (IV) is around 10%, or approximately 12 points in either direction. That’s what the market has priced in for this binary event.
Key Observations
The price is hovering around the Transition Zone and very close to the HVL (High Volume Level) around 130–132.
This suggests the market maker is trying to remain delta-neutral leading into earnings. Once the report hits, expect potential volatility on Wall Street! 🚀
GEX Levels for Friday
🔴 Bearish Scenario
The bottom of the Transition Zone is at 126.
If price drops below 126, the next major put support is at 120 and extends to 115 (a negative gamma squeeze zone).
In other words, a breach of 126 could lead to a quick slide down to 120.
🟢Bullish Scenario
Major call resistance stands at 150, with a secondary call wall at 145.
Above 133 (top of the Transition Zone), calls dominate, meaning the path to 145–150 could open up if we break above the HVL.
Longer-Term Perspective 📊
We’re still in an overall uptrend, but history shows that even with positive surprises on 2 out of the last 4 earnings calls, the market had already priced in those expectations—often leading to a sell-the-news reaction.
I do not recommend trading right before the earnings with a binary mindset. It’s like walking into a casino and putting all your chips on red or black—it’s pure gamble! 🎰
Call pricing skew has been on a downward trend since DeepSeek (likely referencing a volatility event), indicating that call butterflies might not be as attractive on NVDA now as they were in the past few weeks.
Fundamental Analysis 💡
NVIDIA is a hype stock, much like TSLA was a few years back. Its current price has factored in a lot of the future potential.
Based on FastGraphs and other valuation tools, NVDA 1.44%↑ seems overpriced relative to its underlying performance.
A correction might bring it closer to fair value (the “green zone”), like it did in October 2022.
Until then, I’m not considering it for a 5+ year long-term investment—no matter what the short-term price action is.
Conclusion & Post-Earnings Strategy 👉
We simply don’t know which direction NVDA will move after earnings.
Typically, implied volatility (IV) expands before earnings (~90% of the time) and collapses for the nearest expiration immediately afterward.
Even IV on farther-dated expirations can continue to drift lower for a week or two post-earnings.
My Plan
Since I haven’t opened a time spread trade, I’m focusing on post-earnings setups.
If NVDA makes a huge move (breaking out of the 120–150 range), I’ll likely wait at least one more day before placing any new position to let open interest (OI) restructure.
April expirations will be more interesting for me after the dust settles.
$NVDA Earnings SetupNASDAQ:NVDA
Nvidia needs to absolutely dominate the market with both earnings and guidance. Last time they beat by 10% and sold off. Right now is a very difficult time in the market. Many tech companies are beating earnings, then selling off. Shay expects Nvidia to report strong earnings, however, he sees Nvidia having a pullback quarter but the timing is uncertain. As long as it holds the 200 MA, he remains in position. Nvidia has cemented its position in the AI and quantum computing thematics, with its CUDA platform and NVDL Link being essential for future workloads. Doubt remains though about lowered AI cloud workloads due to compute restraints. Demand is still way higher than supply, but questions remain surrounding easing of supply constraints and whether Nvidia has another leg left for exponential growth.
Here are our key levels to watch through earnings:
Under bullish trendline and $130.56, aim for $114.
Over bullish trendline and $130.56, aim for $140.
Bullish Bat on APLD?Beyond the great trade setup here, I'll mention that APLD is NVDA's 2nd largest holdings on their books. Let's hope that NVDA earrnings report shows they haven't sold and maybe that'll help this little engine that could. What's your thoughts? Do you think that APLD and its market partic NASDAQ:APLD NASDAQ:APLD ipants are going to respect levels and let this Bat fly?
Allegion (NYSE: $ALLE) Prepares for Q4 Earnings: Will It Break?Allegion plc (NYSE: ALLE), a key player in the security hardware industry, is set to announce its Q4 earnings today before the market opens. The stock has gained 1.7% in premarket trading, reflecting cautious optimism from investors. With expectations of a 4.5% year-over-year revenue increase to $937.9 million and adjusted earnings of $1.75 per share, the question remains: will Allegion meet expectations or face another revenue miss?
Steady Growth Amid Mixed Performance
Last quarter, Allegion met revenue expectations, posting $967.1 million in sales, a 5.4% YoY increase. However, the company slightly missed organic revenue estimates despite surpassing full-year EPS projections. Over the last two years, Allegion has fallen short of Wall Street’s revenue expectations three times, adding an element of uncertainty heading into today’s report.
Comparing Allegion to its peers in the electrical systems sector, LSI reported a significant 35.5% revenue surge, beating estimates by 14.3%, while Vertiv grew 25.8%, exceeding expectations by 8.8%. Despite these positive trends, the sector has underperformed recently, with an average stock decline of 4.6% over the past month, and Allegion itself dropping 1.2% in the same period.
The broader market landscape in 2024 has been favorable. The Federal Reserve successfully controlled inflation without triggering a recession, leading to a "soft landing." Additionally, the election of Donald Trump in November 2024 has fueled market momentum. However, electrical systems stocks have lagged, making Allegion’s upcoming earnings report crucial for its near-term trajectory.
Technical Analysis
Currently, ALLE is up 1.95% in Tuesday’s premarket trading. The stock’s RSI stands at 54.83, indicating neutral momentum, while trading volume continues to rise ahead of earnings. If Allegion delivers strong Q4 results, it could break above its one-month high, which currently acts as a resistance zone.
On the downside, a negative earnings report could trigger a retracement toward the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. The direction of ALLE’s movement will largely depend on whether it can surpass investor expectations or confirm concerns about its revenue consistency.
What’s Next for ALLE?
With analysts maintaining stable estimates and market conditions favoring growth stocks, Allegion’s Q4 results will play a key role in determining its short-term price action. A bullish breakout could propel it towards the analyst target of $143.75, while a miss may lead to further downside. Investors should watch today’s earnings closely to gauge the stock’s next major move.
TRIP at a Make-or-Break Moment: Reversal Incoming?TRIP is currently testing a major descending trendline resistance around $18.85-$19.00, a critical level that could determine its next move. If price breaks and holds above this resistance, it may trigger a shift in trend, with the next key target at $27.15. However, failure to break out could result in a pullback to the $16.00-$17.00 support zone. The increasing volume suggests renewed interest, but the stock remains in a downtrend until proven otherwise. If momentum weakens here, a potential retest of lower supports near $12.00 could occur. This is a pivotal moment—either TRIP breaks out and signals strength, or it remains trapped within its multi-year downtrend.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Trading and investing involve risk, and independent research or consultation with a professional is recommended before making any financial decisions.
Coca-Cola To Report Q4 Earnings Today Ahead of Market OpenCan the Beverage Giant Sustain Its Momentum?
Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO) is set to report its fourth-quarter earnings results on Tuesday, February 11,2025 ahead of the market open. Investors and traders are closely watching the stock, which has already shown premarket strength, rising 0.20% early Tuesday morning. With the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 60.84, market participants are anticipating a potential bullish continuation, provided earnings results meet or exceed expectations.
Strong Performance in 2023
Coca-Cola, a global leader in the beverage industry, has continued to demonstrate resilience despite economic uncertainties. In 2023, the company reported $45.75 billion in revenue, marking a 6.39% increase from the previous year’s $43 billion. Earnings also saw an impressive 12.28% growth, reaching $10.71 billion. This performance underscores Coca-Cola’s ability to maintain steady growth through product diversification and strategic market positioning.
Analysts remain optimistic about the stock, with 17 analysts giving KO a consensus rating of "Strong Buy." The 12-month price target of $72.18 suggests a potential 11.82% upside from its latest price, reinforcing bullish sentiment ahead of the earnings report.
Technical Analysis
As of Tuesday’s premarket session, NYSE:KO is trending upwards, with its price hovering near $65, a key pivot and resistance level. Breaking this barrier could trigger a bullish rally, potentially pushing KO toward higher price targets in the coming weeks.
However, if earnings disappoint, a retracement may be in play, with immediate support aligning with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $63. This level could serve as a critical point for a potential rebound, should selling pressure emerge following the earnings announcement.
What to Expect Post-Earnings
A strong earnings beat could propel KO further into bullish territory, confirming its upward trajectory and attracting more institutional interest. On the flip side, weaker-than-expected results may lead to a temporary pullback, offering a potential buying opportunity at key support levels.