Earningsplay
Bigger view, will take market with I thought I wrote the filler text and was like wow. I’m good. Anyway, bullish setup unless it breaches 2551ish (wherever wave 1 high was, can’t go below that or EW invalidated. Most likely it begins move up to 4200-4500 to complete wave V. SPY also trying to complete wave IV/start wave V.
I posted a more near term scenario on post earnings move statistically pointing to bigger move than options are priced for. This bigger picture makes me lean to bullish initial target around 3500. Would not be an anomaly if it dropped to 2450 region which would invalidate wave IV and thus the bullish structure which it has been building since 2017.
If you want to know how market will get out of this downward trend and momentum... pay attention to AMZN Tomo
AMD: Any chance of reversing? Let's see.Hello traders and investors! Let’s see how AMD is doing today!
First, in the 1h chart, we see a strong bear trend, and there’s nothing indicating it’ll reverse. As long as we keep seeing lower highs/lows, we can’t say it is a buy.
However, AMD has a few key points that if broken, it could trigger a reversal. First, we have the 21 ema, working as a resistance for the price. Second, we have the purple trend line, as AMD has been trading below it for nearly a month now. Last, we have the previous resistance at $ 91.35. Only if AMD breaks all these resistances we might say the trend will reverse in the mid-term.
If AMD is about to react, the timing couldn’t be better: We just hit the support from July 2021 today (blue line). We see a bullish candlestick today, which is great, and since we are just at this support, the Risk/Reward ratio favors long trades.
We are far from the 21 ema, and any reaction in the 1h chart could make it retest the ema again. If we see more confirmation signs in the daily chart, we could say AMD will fill the last gaps, and the $ 118.60 would be our target.
The only problem is we have earnings in 6 days. This will increase the volatility, and could help a bullish thesis, sure, but if it backfires, the next support level is at $ 72. For now, I am neutral on AMD, and I see many other stocks that look much more interesting, but if this works out, it could be a great opportunity to trade.
Now is the time to watch it closely. I’ll keep you guys updated on this, so remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily analyses!
Bigger move coming than the May 13 options are pricedThe analysis I ran is mainly statistical, so the chart isn’t going to show that. But the idea is high probability of AMZN trading with increasing volatility post earnings.
Yellow boxes are MMM range to up - and downside since Monday. The horizontal rays are where I see it going by the dates marked.
Not financial advice but I’m OTM both ways and will add to the side that doesn’t work after the side that works works.
What you need to know to trade Twitter ahead of Thursday’s earniTwitter (NYSE:TWTR) is set to announce its first-quarter earnings results on Thursday and some analysts expect the microblogging platform to again incur losses on the back of its increased infrastructure and marketing spending amid tight competition.
Saturated market
The company, once among the most popular social media channels globally, has become old news particularly to young people with the emergence of platforms like TikTok and Snapchat (NYSE:SNAP).
Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) remains the market leader among social networking sites globally in 2022 in terms of the number of monthly active users, while Twitter has lagged far behind WhatsApp, Instagram, WeChat, TikTok, Snapchat, Telegram and Pinterest in terms of the number of users, according to data from Statista.
Stronger market competition over the past years has prompted Twitter to boost its spending on research and development, and sales and marketing over the recent years.
Losses mount
In 2021, Twitter’s R&D expenses ballooned 43% from 2020 to $1.25 billion, while sales and marketing costs surged 32% year on year to $1.18 billion. These pushed the company’s overall costs and expenses up 51% to $5.57 billion in 2021 and resulted in a net loss of $221 million for the whole year.
Still, the figure was down from a net loss of $1.14 billion in 2020 when the pandemic battered the company’s operations. For the first quarter of 2022, Twitter expects GAAP operating loss of between $225 million and $175 million, against an operating income of $52 million in the year-ago period.
Twitter also expects its quarterly revenue to range between $1.17 billion and $1.27 billion, up from $1.04 billion last year. Analysts expect the company to post a 22% jump in Q1 revenue to $1.57 billion, significantly up from the company’s targeted range. The analysts pegged Twitter’s earnings per share for Q1 at $0.33, down 13.2% from last year.
In the fourth quarter of 2021, although total ad engagements fell 12% year over year, Twitter still managed to rake in $1.41 billion in fourth-quarter ad revenue, up 22% from a year prior.
Musk’s $44 billion offer
Ahead of its earnings release on Thursday, Twitter became the subject of an acquisition offer from Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk. On Monday, the New York Times reported that Twitter is close to reaching a deal to sell itself to Musk after the latter launched an unsolicited go-private bid worth $54.20, or a total transaction value of ~$44 billion.
That figure represents a substantial premium from Twitter’s current $37 billion market value as of Friday.
Musk has made his plans for Twitter quite clear. Even before the billionaire built a 9.2% stake in the company for an estimated $2.9 billion, Musk has been vocal about how Twitter’s policies quash free speech. However, the Tesla CEO has been notorious in the past for making big market-moving stunts that lead to bigger regulatory concerns for companies that he control.
In his letter to Twitter’s board made public on Friday, Musk said "Twitter has extraordinary potential. I will unlock it.”
Earning swing momentum play on SOFIToday's trading idea is focusing on SOFI - Sofi Technologies
The stock is gapping up to $12.70 (pre-market) after earnings, the company said they expect adjusted revenue to grow 55% until the end of 2022.
The idea is to go Long when the $13.6 resistance will become support. (What we call Kiss and Go)
NVDA earnings gamble ($250)Do you like risk?
Do you like NVDA?
Do you live on the edge?
Are you dumb with your money?..
Then this is the chart for you!
NVDA closes a gap at 228, and the charts are leading right to that gap closing on the 16th. Anyway, if that gap does close on the 15th or 16th, and earnings are good (AH on the 16th), why not take a chance up to $250 and maybe even higher, I'd probably say a max of 261.86.
Anyway, I drew a line, because those are fun sometimes.
AMD perfect picture AMD - i'm back to the stock, long swing trade again
The stock pushed up on earnings, then made a pull back with a weak overall market, but now is coming back
AMD made a Vbottom-right extention pattern, now cleaned the 122 level, room to go to up
MACD, RSI are confirming the move.
The 1st target is 155-160 zone
Trade idea on Walmart - WMTJust as an idea: Cash secured put on Walmart, with a strike price of $134 (delta 23) and an expiry of Feb. 18, 2022. Trade would to be closed on Feb. 16, 2022, 1 day before the quarterly results, which will be published on Feb. 17, 2022, before market opening. The $134-$135 area has successfully acted as support four times over 1 year. Whether it will do it another time is of course uncertain! The additional purchase of the cheaper put with strike price 115$ reduces the margin and creates a bull put spread. This trade idea is one of the 222 trade ideas from my book "The Stock Market Year 2022: Which stocks go up and when?"
Disclaimer:
This trade idea is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell securities or financial instruments. Investment in securities and financial instruments (especially options) are generally associated with risks, up to total loss of the invested capital and above. I am not a financial advisor. Please do your own research and make your own decisions.
Not enough LUVAirlines are not doing well still despite a bunch of propping up by various institutions. These earnings are going to be absolute garbage and the broader market is also gonna tank too. I expect a rally to the 44-45 range with a likely rebound Monday in the broader market. After this, there is nothing holding airlines up for the foreseeable future. What bullish catalyst exists for airlines right now? They've been on life support since the get-go and the labour shortage along with Omicron has completely wiped out Q4 earnings for airlines. TA-wise, it's rejecting the 500 day MA on the daily and is looking week on the RSI and MACD. Price action suggests serious bearish sentiment in the short term. I also put up a Fib retracement from the COVID crash and it's lining up well. Basically this area being rejected is another piece of evidence for serious downside. Also an evening star on the weekly confirmed. Puts and shorts ?
URBN Earnings 1 Week OutLeadup
This morning's gap comes at the one week before the earnings mark. For five of the last six earnings reports, the close on earnings day has been higher than the close one week before.
Price Action
URBN recently completed a trading range and broke down for an almost 20% loss. After rallying 100% from this downward breakout, URBN did a brief bit of consolidation before this morning's gap.
Indicators
There was no accompanying rise in volume with this gap.
DI is showing bullish, and ADX is above 30, the same as three of the five positive week leadups.
RSI is in overbought territory on the daily chart but shows room to go up on the weekly chart.
PYPL Earnings PlayDescription:
Neutral Calendar Spread, betting on a small move and sharp decrease in IV short term options following earnings on Monday.
Long Call Calendar Spread
Levels indicated by the triangle:
Max gain occurs at peak
Break-evens at the ends
Expiration on the right side
Break-evens
254.1, +9.8%
213.46, -7.8%
R/R: ~5:1
Positive R/R, stop loss levels built into position.
Intend to close before near term expiration.
*Stops based off underlying stock price, not mark to market loss
The Trade
BUY
11/19 232.5C
SELL
11/12 232.5C
Only invest what you are willing to lose
Break-evens and R/R vary on fill
RBLX Earnings PlayDescription:
Earnings after close today, taking advantage of high IV on same week options and covering with next week's (Calendar Spread).
Long Call Calendar Spread
Levels on Chart
Break-evens
91.34 +16%
69.01, -12%
R/R: ~4:1
Positive R/R, stop loss levels built into position.
Intend to close before near term expiration.
*Stops based off underlying stock price, not mark to market loss
The Trade
BUY
11/19 79C
SELL
11/12 79C
Only invest what you are willing to lose
Break-evens and R/R vary on fill
Roku Earnings PlayDescription:
Earnings after close on Wednesday, taking advantage of high IV on same week options and covering with next week's (Calendar Spread).
From Deltaone on Twitter: twitter.com
76% expect beat
9.5% move priced in
7.7% avg move post earnings in recent quarters
Long Call Calendar Spread
Levels on Chart
Break-evens
344.96, +12.89%
275.74, -9.77%
Downside also protected by support established in DEC of 20.
R/R: ~5:1
Positive R/R, stop loss levels built into position.
Intend to close before near term expiration.
*Stops based off underlying stock price, not mark to market loss
The Trade
BUY
11/12 307.5C
SELL
11/05 307.5C
Only invest what you are willing to lose
Break-evens and R/R vary on fill