$NKE NIKE | NIKE CEO RETIRES & PRICE RALLIES 9% - Sep 21st, 2024NYSE:NKE NIKE | NIKE CEO RETIRES & PRICE RALLIES 9% - Sep 21st, 2024
BUY/LONG ZONE (GREEN): $
DO NOT TRADE/DNT ZONE (WHITE): $
SELL/SHORT ZONE (RED): $
Weekly: Bearish
Daily: Bullish
4H: Bullish
NYSE:NKE price is now approaching the 88.00 - 89.00 level that was a previous support level (week of Apr01'24). Bearish momentum from Jun27'24 earnings broke this level. We are now revisiting it from a bullish rally that was spawned by the CEO retiring and a new one being appointed. The support, the break, and the retest are three visits to this level, which is why I'm now viewing it as a potential entry for trades. Keep an eye out for the Oct01 earnings call.
This is what I would personally look at before entering trades, everything is subject to change on a daily basis and as I analyze different timeframes and ideas.
ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY, NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE!
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Earningsplay
So BULLISH on GOOGLE ! There is a very important price behavior we need to check. I am almost certain that this behavior is the key to an upward movement on the following weeks.
There are several points to consider in order to determine what Google’s next move will be.
EMA CROSS WITH DIVERGENCE: As we can see above, we have an EMA cross with bearish divergence. When there is wide divergence between the two EMAs, it indicates strong movement with momentum.
Now, as we can see, the EMA cross is repeating again but in a bullish direction, and we are just starting to see divergence between the two, adding to the fact that the price has already broken the bearish channel with great force, followed by an indecisive Stacked Candle Channel.
CHANNEL BREAKOUT AND MOMENTUM: The price, after breaking our channel with great strength and in a bullish direction, showed decisiveness. However, right now, it is trapped in a "Stacked Candle Channel," (SCC) which is an indecisive channel where candles are clustered together and of almost the same size. This can also be seen as a pattern that the price sets before making a decision.
The question is: What decision will it make, bullish or bearish?
EARNINGS REPORT: The earnings report is fundamental for companies to inform investors of any changes in their balance sheet that have been reflected. In this case, Google is a company with one of the strongest and most solid balance sheets on the NYSE. Google’s last two reports were extraordinary, and I have no doubt that Google will deliver a good report on October 22nd. But as the price approaches the report date, many will take positions, and we could conclude that Google will have a bull run until the 22nd. From there, it will depend on the report to make a leap toward the 180-190 range.
Let's see what happens!
Thank you for supporting my analysis, and I send you my best regards.
AVGO may confirm the daily 10 SMA this week.NASDAQ:AVGO is on watch to confirm the daily 10 SMA ahead of its earnings this week, which are on Thursday at 4:15 PM EDT. Many names in the NASDAQ:NDX are heading into this week just below the daily 10 SMA, including NASDAQ:META NASDAQ:TSLA and the semiconductor ETF NASDAQ:SMH
If these names are able to build above Friday's high, they have space to trade up to the next daily supply.
Option Chain Before Earnings - $NVDA huge CALL skewThis week, keep an eye on NASDAQ:NVDA , which will release its quarterly earnings on Wednesday.
Here are this week’s earnings releases implemented by the TanukiTrade Options Overlay indicator for Tradingview:
08/28 Wednesday after market close: NVDA , CRWD , CRM
08/29 Thursday after market close: MRVL
The Options Overlay indicates that NVDA's call skew is above 55% at 54DTE, meaning that CALL options are priced 55% higher than PUT options for the binary expected move distance .
This suggests that the market is pricing in a strong upward move.
The yellow curve represents the binary expected move, while the blue curve shows the 16-delta OTM options. The green rectangle highlights the area where you can potentially profit from the butterfly trade if the earnings report meets bullish market expectations.
Upward price levels:
7/8 - 138
8/8 - 150
Downward price levels:
6/8 - 125
5/8 - 112
If you agree with the market’s bullish sentiment, one of the best R:R trades might be a directional NVDA call butterfly. You can buy it for $109 with the nearest Friday expiration, with a maximum (theoretical) profit of nearly $900. It’s worth executing this trade before the earnings announcement. Note that the green dashed line is theoretical; while it's not a traditional trendline according to classic TA, the long-term upward trend is still quite clear
Expiry: Aug 30
Legs: 1x140C -2x150C + 1x160C
Net debit: ~$100
Max profit: $890
What Wall of Worry? Path of Least Resistance for NowI reviewed an interesting study Tuesday about V bottoms. Over 20 years of data showing the average "V Bottom" takes nearly 1 year to come back and get into positive territory.
The fact that all US Indexes and many stocks have done this in 10-15 trading trades is pretty remarkable. Will we more path of least resistance at all-time highs or will we see resistance actual hold for a beat.
All US Markets closing green today, Russell 2000 led the indexes today with +1.30%
DXY hitting fresh lows, but 101 and 100 are major technical support levels that I'm watching.
Review at your convenience. Thanks for watching!!!
AAPLE VS NASDAQ. THE FRUITY COMPANY AHEAD OF EARNINGS CALLConsumer tech manufacturer Apple (AAPL) is due to report earnings next Thursday, February 1. Notably, waning iPhone demand out of China has worried investors as Apple had a rocky 2024 start, dealing with several stock downgrades.
Some of analysts slowed down its expectations for Apple and the biggest tailwinds and risks for its various devices.
"As far as those businesses are concerned, the only one that will probably show growth is Mac because some of the new products that they rolled out and easy comps from a year ago, you will probably see some sharp declines specifically on the iPad side of things...," they note.
The main graph is a ratio, between Apple stocks price NASDAQ:AAPL and overall NASDAQ:NDX Nasdaq-100 Big Tech index.
It's been a while since Buffett put the money into Fruity Company in Q2'16, and since that Apple stock outperformed the whole index, appr. by 150 percent over the next 6 years.
By the way, Apple stocks as well as Nasdaq-100 index hit the bottom, in early Q4'22 and since that, Apple underperforms the whole Big Tech Index, totally.
Basically NASDAQ:AAPL losses against NASDAQ:NDX further, over the past 12-15 months later they both hit the bottom. In this time the major break down happens in massive reversed Head-and-Shoulders ctructure, just ahead of Q4'23 Earnings call.
This is the bottom line, I'm avoid the Fruity Company ahead of Earnings Call.
Happy trading to everyone. See y'all later.
Maximize Gains with Options for $UBER: Option Chain Outlook The NYSE:UBER stock price had been in an uptrend until it reached around the $75 level, after which it entered a correction phase. The price is currently near a long-term upward trendline, which could act as strong support.
Volatility: The IVRank (Implied Volatility Rank) is 107.5, indicating that the current volatility is high compared to the values observed over the past year. The IVx value is 73.6, also indicating high volatility.
IVx 5-day Change: +7.8%, showing a significant increase in volatility over the past 5 days. This is common in the period leading up to earnings as investors prepare for the announcement.
Price Skew: The 27.3% skew indicates that call options are more in demand, which could suggest that investors are expecting a bullish movement post-earnings. A solid skew suggests higher demand for call options, indicating a potential bullish sentiment among investors.
IVx (46 DTE): 73.6, indicating high volatility expected over the next 46 days. Volatility is likely to remain high around the earnings report, which is favorable for selling option premiums.
Exp.mV (46 DTE): The expected move over the next 46 days is $7.6, indicating that investors are pricing significant price movement after the earnings report.
PLTR Earnings Options Analysis: Strong SupportsCurrent Price Level: NYSE:PLTR is currently trading around 23.79 USD.
Options Data:
IVRank: 95.8, indicating that the current implied volatility is at the 95.8th percentile over the past 52 weeks.
IV% 5d Change: 16%, showing a significant increase in implied volatility over the past 5 days.
Exp. move at 46 DTE: 4.6% for options expiring in 46 days.
Price Skew: 31.8%, indicating the difference between the bid and ask prices of options.
Market participants overpriced call options by 31.8% for the September expiration, indicating bullish sentiment despite the significant panic in the markets today.
Support Level: There is strong support below the 4/8 level, which is crucial for put options.
The green line represents the strike price expected by the market based on the options chain for 46 days to expiration (46 DTE), around 18 USD.
The Delta 16 PUT level is below the 4/8 Murrey Math level, indicating strong support based on the status of the current optionchain.
Options Analysis for Caterpillar Inc. ($CAT)Key Levels and Indicators:
Current Price: $316.49
IV Rank: 129.5
IV (46 DTE): 58.7%
IV Change (5 Days): +10.2%
Expected Move (46 DTE): $31.4
Price Skew: 3.1% for PUTs (almost neutral)
The market appears to anticipate that the price of NYSE:CAT will remain above this strike price ($280) by the expiration date of 46 days (DTE).
A 5-day change in IV of +10.2% indicates increasing volatility possibly due to upcoming earnings or other significant events + today crash of SP500.
An expected move of $31.4 suggests that the market predicts CAT could move within a $31.4 range from its current price over the next 46 days.
The green horizontal line at $280 represents a critical support level at MurreyMath 2/8.
THE FREAKY SEVEN IS SET TO CONTINUE ITS CHEMICAL TRIP. SOON...US stock indexes closed mixed on Monday as investors awaited a massive wave of data this week.
171 companies within the S&P 500 are set to report their second-quarter earnings results this week, and expectations are high given the Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) 16% year-to-date rally.
Some of the biggest companies including Apple, Microsoft, and Amazon will report results this week.
I won't sing you lullabies about expected numbers.
The major technical graph indicates that 50-Day SMA already done & fully retested.
The next one chase is IXIC 125-Day SMA & all the way below, as much as it possible.
MSFT Microsoft Corporation Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven't entered MSFT when they bought a stake in OpenAI, the creator of ChatGPT:
Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of MSFT Microsoft Corporation prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 460usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-11-15,
for a premium of approximately $13.05.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Deckers Outdoor Corp. The Epic Bullish BreakthroughShares of Hoka-owner Deckers Outdoor rose in after-hours trading Thursday after the company handily beat Wall Street expectations in its fiscal fourth quarter.
The stock was recently up 9.4% to $990, following a 1.3% rise at the close. Shares are up about 35% this year as of the close.
The Goleta, Calif.-based shoe and apparel company, which also owns the Ugg and Teva brands, said its sales rose 21% to $959.8 million, ahead of the $888.5 million expected by analysts polled by FactSet.
Hoka brand sales were up 34% and Ugg rose 15%. Teva brand sales fell 16%.
The company posted a profit of $127.5 million, or $4.95 a share, in the three months ended March 31, compared with a profit of $91.8 million, or $3.46 a share, a year earlier. Analysts polled by FactSet expected a per-share profit of $3.10.
Deckers expects revenue to increase about 10% to $4.7 billion in the fiscal year ending March 31, 2025.
The company expects $29.50 to $30 in per-share earnings for the period, compared with the $30.74 a share expected by analysts polled by FactSet.
Technical graph indicates on strong Bullish momentum in Deckers (DECK) shares, that based on my expectations is able to deliver stocks up to $1400 per share.
$T cheapest good R:R earnings play2024-07-23 at 3DTE
NYSE:T Jul 26th 16/17 Put Ratio Spread
Options Overlay indicator and Options Screener in action.
Tomorrow before open : Earnings
Max loss: $2.5
Max profit: $97
Bp.req: $200
Bearish micro, bullish macro.
I expect that even in the event of a possible fall, the 4/8 will hold the price.
If it doesn't, then the upward macro trend.
So I went for a pretty safe-looking trade, with the green rage showing the range of returns, so I will sleep well :)
PUTS = CALLS equally priced for 3DTE.
$TFC Options visualization - Earnings at Monday After Close NYSE:TFC Earnings at Monday After Close
Hard PUT pricing skew
Interpolated DELTA16 is far below the STD1
4/8 could be act as support
08/16 at 27DTE
IVx is 35
Exp.move ±2.13
Put pricing skew: PUTs are +77%
more expensive at Exp.mv
09/20 at 62DTE
IVx is 29.5
Exp.move ±2.93
Put pricing skew: PUTs are +49%
more expensive at Exp.mv
AMSC Computer medium cap beats earnings LONGAMSC on the daily chart has went 3X in 7-8 months on the strength of earnings beats and
the tailwinds of the AI supertrend. I see this as an excellent swing long trade to hold into
the next earnings in 3-4 months. AMSC is currently at its ATH and going higher means no
overhead resistance.
BB set up for a move higher pre-earnings LONGBB on the 15 minute chart has earnings in three weeks. Price has been meandering sideways
for two weeks after some significant volatility in mid-May. I believe it is now due for a change
of phase/cycle as the earnings approach. I will place a long trade here targeting initially 3.10
just below a significant level to the left being the consolidations before and after the
volatility of mid-May. These is the likely level where traders will again make trades in BB.
The upcoming earnings should add some extra volatility into the price action which could
translate into profit.
AVGO, Split coming? On it's way to 1550?The chart for Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) on the NASDAQ shows a bullish breakout from a falling wedge pattern, indicating a potential upward price movement.
After the breakout, the price has consolidated around the $1,406.64 level, suggesting a healthy pause before the next move.
The RSI at 57.48 indicates neutral to slightly bullish momentum, and increased volume during the breakout adds credibility to this move.
The projected path suggests the price will consolidate around $1,407.78 before breaking out to $1,419.17 and potentially reaching $1,438.35 and $1,445.40. Considering these factors, entering a long position if the price breaks above $1,419.17
with strong volume could be beneficial, with a stop loss below $1,391.91 to manage risk and targets at $1,438.35 and $1,445.40.
This could easily tun to 1550 with a 10% implied move on earnings.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult a financial advisor before making any trading decisions.