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Earningsplay

Why I think Post Earnings Trades can be more profitable! PLEASE NOTE: this is just my opinion. I know a lot of people who LOVE trading earnings and can and do have some pretty good results. If you trade earnings, that's awesome, I just always say no matter what or how you trade, just have a plan and stick to it! But for me, earnings just doesn't fall into my game plan. I used to trade earnings with some up and down results and finally came up with a game plan and stuck to it -- COMPLETELY forget about earnings! And, if anything, trade POST EARNINGS, not PRE-earnings. Ever since, my consistency has increased. Yes, I understand there are many viewpoints here, i.e., great to capture volatility crush by selling; ability to capture huge move with little risk lotto. Yea, you can bank pretty good if you get an earnings right, but there are so many factors working against you that I would rather trade 10 consistent trades with a higher win percentage compared to making 10 trades with the hope that fate is on my side for at least one or two of them. So, this is why I think post earnings can better set you up for more sustainable, consistent profits. I've attached an image of Netflix. With their recent earnings, figured I'd just use them for an example. To help illustrate, I'm using the Oct. 16, 2019 earnings. So, what is my set up for earnings? ABSOLUTELY NOTHING! I trade wave theory and supply/demand. Let's walk through this hypothetically .... Pretend there is NO such thing as earnings for this... It's beginning of October and I want to make a trade in Netflix. I go chart it, find supply/demand, and low and behold, "NOPE, not entering a trade yet. We are currently in a chop zone. But, based on my game plan, I will WAIT and LOOK TO SHORT at the 300 supply zone OR I will WAIT and look to enter a LONG position at the demand zone around around 268." Game plan set, set some trade alerts/price alerts, and now wait. Oh, Oct. 17 I get an alert Netflix has entered a supply zone. I go, check out price action, and potentially decide to enter a short trade because price for some reason rocketed up to a BIG supply zone. I enter a short and stick to my game plan until invalidation level. Well, Oct. 18 rolls in and the stock has now dropped by end of day from 308 down to 273! Let's say I lock in some profit and I close all positions. I have now followed my game plan up to this point with no consideration as to what, why or how price entered my target zone. My main thing is to find my entry zones and WAIT until price gets there, no matter the reason of how. Now, after I close out, I re evaluate. Oh, look at that, there is a BIG DEMAND zone down at 265 area. Guess what, another trade alert set and then it triggers. I go and review price action and see that there was a WHOLE LOT of selling directly into demand. Sweet, a confirmation signal I look for. So, lets say I now enter, according to my game plan (short supply, long demand), I enter a long position at 268. Well, as you can see, sticking to my game plan and the general concept of powerful moves being able to come out of demand, price trended all the way up to 338. Lets hypothetically lock in those gains and move on to the next trade! ...... Well, happens all the time, but lets say someone asks, "OMG, did you trade Netflix earnings? I made a killing on the pop up! (or lost on the surprise beat)." My response: "ummmm I didn't even know there was earnings...." My game plan: less stress; putting odds in my favor; potentially made some awesome swing trades for a total point value of about 110 points! Person who traded earnings: stressed; ears and eyes locked onto the news; fingers crossed that the $100 lotto/gamble they made will pay off and hoping that fate is on their side. Funny thing too to help illustrate the horrendous odds of earnings ... this earnings report posted a surprise BEAT; so, rightfully so, the price rocketed right up! However, that rocket landed SMACK DAB in a supply zone. So, to the person trading earnings scratching their head as to what the heck happened to the stock after posting such a great report??? Well, lets look: you bought in a chop zone where the market was already indecisive of where to go and the report did nothing more than to SPEED UP THE PROCESS of helping the stock price either go to a demand or a supply zone. Here, earnings, I suppose, just helped to accelerate time a little bit and pushed it straight to supply. Once it got there, there were a whole lot of sellers waiting to just dump their holdings. And, ironically, at the same time, you have all of your Earnings "Winners" locking in their profit, also dumping off their holdings. Result = good earnings report > massive price swing to the negative If this is too long, I apologize. I just hope this makes sense and hopefully helps to illustrate to people my reasoning as to why I don't trade earnings. Seriously, I couldn't tell you when an earnings report is on any of the stocks I trade. The only time I look to when earnings are is to help me decide how far out in time to purchase or sell my putts or calls. Meaning, if I was going to buy 6 weeks out and find out that that expiration lands right on earnings, then I will SKIP THIS DATE and go out maybe 8 weeks or go shorter to maybe 4 weeks out BECAUSE I do not want to buy elevated implied volatility due to an event that has absolutely no bearing on how I trade. Let the trade set-up establish itself FIRST; don't trade hoping for a set-up to happen...
NASDAQ:NFLXEducation
by PT_Marche
8
American Express UPCOMING EARNINGS!! With earings on Apr 24, I think they will miss, due to the stay at home ordes b/c of the coronavirus. -I'm sure a large number of customers are choosing to defer their payments, ultimately affecting AXP revenue. - Am. Express has been on a nose dive since January - it found resistance at the 38. 2 level and im riding it down back to 68-70 (or the 0.0) fib level where it may find support.. - Price also respected the 6.81 fib level on the daily time frame Feel free to like, comment, follow.
NYSE:AXPShort
by NoCeilingsTrading
BP Earnings call fundamentals Bought 35.5 calls feb 20 @ 0.45 avrg price just before close monday 3rd. Calls currently @ 2.20 (06/02/20 00:42 GMT) thoughts that lead me to call BP would be up on earnings - 1. Higher production correctively offset negative effects of lower commodity and energy price structures. 2.Final purchase instalments of BHP (LON) circa April, likely asset flow from said deal is starting to take full effect on their books; consequently, boosting overall output even further. 3. Most interesting point (at least to me) and one of the main fundamental drivers, ROSN (LON) trading volume spiked from 261m value traded December to over422m in Jan, which consequently is the largest in over 10 months. BP owns 20%, so for me this was a major indicator; suspect even higher cumulative output to again offset the falling prices in the quarter. Didn’t post on TV at the time but for proof I called Monday reference reedit post under KykoKata. > next target area around 40, second 45.
NYSE:BPLong
by Brad010
Peri Highly Likely to beat earnings!My prediction is that the over-reaction on taking profits created the fall in price, bringing a new position to get settled in before earnings is released. I believe that we will be rising from the High 7$ & low 8$ by the end of this week. Still is another full week in the market before week of earnings which can create a little more consolidation, however due to the last bear candles showing we are on a pivot to an equal 9$. I am thinking Peri will be surprising us big ups on the earnings call especially because it is currently undervalued. Do your own research before investing. I am not a professional or expert, I am just providing an idea that I believe is going to happen. Share your thoughts & opinions! We are here to rise as a team<3
NASDAQ:PERILong
by jovannygalvan23
Netflix: Is a Gap Fill Coming to a Theater Near You?Netflix has drifted in a frustrating way for months. But now it could be setting up for a gap fill with earnings due this afternoon. NFLX began the year by finding support at its 200-day simple moving average (SMA). This represents a potentially significant change in character from July, when the same line was resistance. Traders may now be able to use the old rejection point of $336 as support. Below that is the 50-day SMA around $315. A good earnings report could drive the stock up into the gap, possibly toward its July 17 low of $361.75. This would be a binary event, with risk of a drop if its numbers fail to impress. So traders should proceed with caution and use appropriate position sizes. They can also use options to manage risk -- not a bad idea because NFLX is a very active and liquid underlier. In conclusion, this streaming-video innovator is one of the most popular growth stocks of the last decade. It's also up more than 30,000 percent from its IPO. NFLX might not be doing much lately, but it's definitely not a name we want to forget.
NASDAQ:NFLXLong
by TradeStation
AWK Earnings Play Long 5th Wave Swing Trading OpportunityAWK reported earnings after the markets 30 Oct and had beat on EPS, which could be the catalyst for a Bullish move 31 October as conference call is due before the US markets open. We have used our Elliott Wave Indicator Suite for the TradingView platform to carry out this analysis. Earnings plays are notoriously difficult swing trading opportunities so we like the back up of technical analysis before entering a trade. Using our Elliott Wave Indicator Suite we can see the wave 4 has pulled back into our green probability pull zone, which represents an 85% probability of our automated 5th wave target zone (blue zone on chart) being hit. Our criteria for our Elliott Wave Oscillator and special False Breakout Stochastic indicators have also been met. So if we get an expected Bullish reaction to earnings today we will look for a conservative entry above the recent pivot at $126.02 with the Stop loss at $118.57, just below the wave 4 pivot. This gives a 1:1 Risk to Reward to our 5th Wave Target zone with an initial target price of $134. Learn more bout our Elliott Wave Indicator Suite for TradingView >>HERE<<
NYSE:AWKLong
by xBratSoftwareSolutions
Earnings Play for TERP - Potential Long 5th WaveTERP has earnings before the markets open, Friday 1st November. This is an earnings play combined with a potential elliott wave setup. We are using our Elliott Wave Indicator suite for TradingView to setup this potential Long Swing Trading opportunity. The wave 4 has found support in our probability pullback zones. The rules for our False breakout Stochastic and Elliott Wave Oscillator have also been met. The risk to reward is great into our automated 5th wave target zone, in blue on the chart, with entry for this potential long 5th wave move at 17.24. The stop is just below the wave 4 pivot. This is an earnings play and we dont want to enter this before Friday 1st November. So we are waiting for a positive earnings reaction pre market on Friday and entry long through 17.24. Learn more about our Elliott Wave Indicator Suite for Trading View >>HERE<<
TLong
by xBratSoftwareSolutions
ARC Document Solutions - risky trend reversal playThe printing business isn't exactly a booming industry, and ARC Document Solutions has fallen nearly 50% since its 2018 peak, and even more than that since 2017. However, ARC is a surprisingly strong company in this space. For the full year 2018, it increased its revenue, sales, earnings, and cash flow over its 2017 numbers. The company's full year guidance for 2019 is on track with its 2018 performance, in the range of $0.17-.22 per share. In Q1 2019 sales declined year-over-year, but earnings and cash flow increased due to an effective cost reduction strategy. In that quarter, ARC reiterated its full-year guidance. So overall, it's safe to say that the stock price has moved exactly the wrong direction, given the strength of the company and of its numbers. Apparently investors are betting against ARC because they just don't the printing sector has much future, not because of any inherent problems with the company. But here's thing: ARC is much more than just a printing company! For instance, for several years it's been a top provider of compliance solutions for the healthcare industry, and this month it announced that it's extending that business with a new digital platform. ARC is a big business-to-business seller of marketing materials, and has expanded its large-format printing capabilities at several locations since its last earnings report. It uses cloud-based technology to manage collaboration across its work force. According to a recent employee review on Glassdoor, ARC has also expanded into "Drone Services," "3D Printing," and "smartscreens" for use by architects and engineers. In short, ARC is keeping up with the digital revolution by transforming itself into a business-to-business technology and digital records management company! ARC's next earnings are coming up August 6. It goes into earnings with such strong analyst ratings: a 10/10 Equity Summary Score from Thompson Reuters StarMine. From a technical perspective, ARC has been forming some nice bullish divergences and recently broke a 2-week downward trend line. It has some support from 2018 lows in the 1.66-1.85 range. Volume Friday was on the buy side.
ALong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
QCOM earnings could be better than analysts expectThe semiconductor has been hot lately, with recent earnings beats from MU, INTC, TSM, and TXN. These companies' performance implies that demand in this sector has recovered faster than analysts expected. That bodes well for Qualcomm, which posts earnings results Wednesday. The Zacks Earnings Surprise Prediction is 0%. However, QCOM has a long history of beating earnings expectations, which it's done for the last 8 quarters straight. Technical analysis from Recognia and TradingCentral indicates that QCOM is in Elliott Wave 5, headed toward a price target of $80-82 per share. That's at least 6.5% upside from the current price. According to TipRanks, the average analyst price target is $84.70, which is 12.5% above the current price. Analyst ratings on the stock are surprisingly mixed, given the high average price target. QCOM has a "sell" rating from Zacks, the most accurate analytics firm, and a 6/10 ("neutral") Equity Summary Score from Thompson Reuters StarMine. Investor sentiment appears neutral overall, with the stock holding above its daily moving averages, but MACD is below the signal line on both the hourly and daily charts. The price is currently below its 20-hour moving average and slightly below its Hull Moving Average. The price shadow on the candlestick chart implies that sellers are currently in control, but that buyers are waiting for a green light to take over. The bottom line for me is that investors and analysts may be undervaluing Qualcomm and underestimating its prospects of an earnings beat, given the overall strength of the sector and the company's history of beating estimates. Qualcomm has strong support at its current level from both the volume profile and the daily moving average, which makes this possibly a good entry. In the event of an earnings miss, the price could find earnings-day trend line support around $72.88 or moving average support around $67.50. Meeting expectations could leave the stock in a slow downtrend. An earnings beat could send the stock to $78, $79, $80.75, or $82.50. A really big beat could send it as high as $86 on earnings day.
NASDAQ:QCOMLong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
1
$BA Where Bad News is Good? Boeing (BA) to recognize charge and increased costs in second quarter due to 737 max grounding; amounts relate to expensing of estimated potential concessions and other considerations to customers and impact of continued lower 737 max production rate; said charge will result in a $5.6B reduction of revenue and pre-tax earnings in quarter and will record an after-tax charge of $4.9B I'm all about ":flag_us: first, but this has been propped up far too long. Watching these levels closely. If we break above resistance (red line) 384 area could be next, but there is too much downside risk.
NYSE:BAShort
by BeyondBullishTrades
American Outdoor Brands Company Earnings PlayAOBC reports earnings next week on June 18. Historically, AOBC usually beats earnings estimates. Additionally, AOBC has recently had its earnings estimates revised upward, which is a good predictor of an earnings beat. Zacks has given this company a high probability of an earnings surprise. Companies whose share price has recently fallen typically get the biggest bump from an earnings beat and the smallest drop from an earnings miss. AOBC is down 40 cents per share since this time last month, and over $5.00 per share this year. That makes AOBC a really good candidate for a bet on an earnings beat. As you can see, it's getting a big bump today as investors gear up for next week's earnings reports.
ALong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
1
Coffee Holding Company Earnings PlayCoffee Holdings Co. (JVA) reports earnings Monday. JVA's earnings have beaten estimates about half the time and missed the other half of the time. Historically, earnings beats have led to at least a few days of strong price performance for JVA. Stocks whose share price has recently declined tend to get the biggest bump from earnings beats and the smallest drops from earnings misses. JVA is down over 40% from its February peak, making it a good candidate for an earnings play. This is a particularly risky kind of bet to make, but the rewards from a winning bet are high. As a bonus, JVA is a pretty solid stock, even setting earnings aside. It's rated a good quality, financially healthy, undervalued company by S&P Capital IQ.
NASDAQ:JVALong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
Darden to make modest gains pre-earningsDarden Restaurants (DRI) is on the lower side of its upward-sloping diamond pattern and thus likely to make some modest gains leading up to earnings on June 20. Working as an upside catalyst is Darden's 1.6% earnings surprise prediction from Zacks. 1.6% isn't a huge ESP, but the market reacts well to any positive ESP number. You may want to sell off your position ahead of earnings, however, because Darden is near all-time highs and the market will heavily punish it if earnings disappoint. As always, this is just an idea about how the market will move, not investment advice.
NYSE:DRILong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
1
Looking for earnings surprise from Cheetah Mobile - 1-day tradeCheetah Mobile has beaten earnings estimates on 8 out of its last 10 earnings dates. That makes it a good candidate to win again. Generally, when Cheetah Mobile beats estimates, it rises for just a single day and then falls again the day after. I've made a $500 bet that we get an earnings surprise, and I will liquidate the position tomorrow morning either way. As a general rule, companies whose stock price has declined in recent weeks get a bigger bump from an earnings surprise and a smaller drop from an earnings miss. In addition to having routinely beaten estimates, Cheetah Mobile has also seen a 30% drop in share price since March. That makes it a good candidate for an earnings play.
NYSE:CMCMLong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith