Look to short FB @ $184 ahead of earningsIf Facebook reaches $184 prior to next week's earnings report, I will be opening a short position. While this wouldn't be a text book head and shoulders, it would fit much of that technical profile. Insiders have been selling off large numbers of shares recently. Would place stop near $190 mark as a break above would largely invalidate the idea. In the event that this trade breaks my way, I will do a partial cover at $155.
Earningsplay
DISNEY: How good are you at 'prediction'? (8th May 2019)This chart of DISNEY is specially for people who like 'predictions' or trying to predict market moves. But everybody is invited to guess where price is going in the one-week period after 8th May 2019. Note what happens at or around earnings release dates. I've put vertical lines on the chart to make earnings events easier to see.
Okay - I'll stick my neck out and estimate that price is gonna go south. Ooops! Everybody knows my crystal ball is broken!
So for those who believe in 'prediction' just have a go at this one. LOL. Don't be shy! For those involved in fundamental analysis, there are reputable sites that will give projected fundamental data and EPS data etc.
Potential WMT Short, Earnings WendesdayHigh probability, Great Risk/reward, only way it goes wrong is if WMT crushes their earnings. I think even if they meet expectation's it'll still go down. If this chart isn't screaming "overextended" to you, I don't know what would be lol. I'm playing OTM Puts with 2-4 week expiry. Good luck
$TTNP - swing idea / Earnings 11/8 - Momentum Play$TTNP - Earnings Play 11/8'
Currently consolidating and has filled gap. Looking to re-enter as I have bought last week and scaled out on momentum play 10%+; still has more upside.
Insider activity: 78%
finviz.com
Institutional Own: 2 new position
% Shares Owned: 4.06%
# of Holders: 39
Total Shares Held: 2,637,804
3 Mo. Net Change: 1,204,000
# New Positions: 2
www.reuters.com
Swing: buy within the orange line / Stop at RED Line
Daytrade: buy at break of HOD - Blue line (watch for volume / RSI 68) - 50dma .42
11/2: Bought today at open - SL is red line (will add within support).
REMEMBER:
1. trade with a plan
2. manage your risk/reward
3. honor your stop loss
Good luck!
SIRI - Fibretrace at 0.618SIRI has acquired Pandora (P) and will likely increase subscriptions in coming quarters.
Earnings coming Oct. 26th
Dividend currently measly $0.01/Qtr or $0.04, or 0.64% with current price.
Unless market further corrects this should bounce to 0.500 fibretrace next week for 5% jump, ideally 382 for 10% target.
Placing low ball open order below this at $6.15.
Facebook - bounce off support ahead of earnings - gap fillBearish prediction for Facebook stock ahead of earnings. I think the resistance line I've marked will be tested again, followed by a bounce, and if the earnings report is good we could see the previous gap get filled. This is supported by the RSI indicator.
Hit the like button if you agree.
CCJ - NYSE CCO - TSX Powering the grid Cameco Corp. Mining Uranium stock likely recovers in breakout of FIB retracements 0.5 (recent down) and 0.382 (recent up) and near 9.81 or drop below 9.50 to 8.95-9.25 resistance.
Point of interest:
* Uranium prices beaten down since 2011 Fukashima Reactor melt-down and back-up generator cooling failures from psunami hitting Japan.
* Japan shuts down all of the 32 Nuclear Reactors to assure public safety and clean-up causing global Uranium (Ur) prices to tumble to where it now is.
* Nuclear energy is still a paid for and quite reliable energy source with proper safety measures, which Japan now has and plans to restart.
* No. Amer. power also relies on nuclear power, which Pres. Trump will not import from other countries supporting demand.
* This is one of several plays, which is safe haven mid to large-cap mining stock and away from volatility (VIX) moneyballers like, as VIX up near 5% each of last 2 days.
Viewers come to own conclusions. Like, share, comment.
INTC about to miss earnings due to AMD Epyc server growthI previously called a technical breakdown in INTC following the competition of the ascending triangle. INTC subsequently fell, but has not yet hit its full down-side price target and has rallied a bit. This is a textbook Elliot Wave zigzag correction pattern and for fundamental reasons I see the final leg of the correction about to breakout, once again to the downside.
AMD just reported strong Q2 earnings after market close on 7/25/18, their best profits in seven years, on the strength of their new product portfolio. Most troubling for INTC is their growth of over 50% in their new Epyc server processors, which they attributed to growth in "Mega-data centers." This TAM is INTC's bread and butter and they have enjoyed essentially 100% control of that TAM which AMD is now starting to chip away at. I expect INTC's quatertly earnings report to show this when they report after-hours today, 7/26/18.
As far as trade entries go, I expect INTC to open sharply down today, more to do with the general tech dump following FB's disappointing earnings report. I do not think the loss of server market share will be priced in due to competition from AMD. So essentially, don't be afraid to chase this down a bit, but watch out for any recovery in FB, which will likely whip-saw up and down over the next few days, which could bring INTC back up from any drop at open. I will be playing this as a short-term earnings play and a medium term play as I think INTC is a good short with a soft backdrop in tech and the S&P500 emerging.
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As always, the responsibility for managing your position is your own. I am not a financial adviser nor is any content in this post intended to be financial advice. The information presented is my opinion, based on tools I have learned from others sharing their opinions and my experience in the markets. I share these ideas to generate discussion and have others critique my analysis because, as always, I am still learning. With that in mind, the outcome could be quite different than what I am predicting and this is for informational purposes only. It should not be considered financial or investment advice of any kind. Readers should consult with a financial or investment professional to determine what may be best for their individual needs.
NASDAQ Biotech ETF (IBB) - Bullish Breakout Options TradeOn Friday's Options Action, the crew analyzed the performance of the biotech sector. The NASDAQ Biotech ETF (IBB) that tracks the large cap names have underperformed the overall sector recently. IBB has recently formed both a long term cup & handle formation and an inverted head & shoulders, a bullish setup. Coupled the largest 5 names in this ETF reporting earnings this week, provides a potential catalyst for the ETF to break higher. Expecting IBB to breakout to the upside, Michael Khouw suggests buying a Sept 113/119/125 Call Spread Risk Reversal for a $0.70 Debit. As of Friday's close, this spread is trading at $0.65.
We've structured this trade in OptionsPlay so you can analyze and view this trade along with the supporting technical chart at your convenience.
View this OptionsPlay on IBB - app.optionsplay.com
Cost: $65
Max Reward: $535
Max Risk: $11,365
POP: 43.18%
Breakeven: $119.65
Days to Expiry: 61
NFLX earnings report play With the much anticipated earnings of $NFLX quickly approaching within the next few days, we saw a drop in price at about 4.28% when market closed on Friday. With the earnings estimate being 0.79 EPS and a previous earnings target being met at 0.64, I think Netflix will see a continue rise in stock price in the long run given the earnings report next week goes well. With the booming popularity and increased amount of users, this has affected the value of the stock within the past year quite favourably. Despite many competitors entering the once dominated market, NFLX still reigns supreme. With a 52 week range of $157.61- $429.91, the stock dropping nearly 5% could be a good buying opportunity. I have been thinking about adding NFLX to my portfolio so I will be watching closely on market open on Monday to see when I can buy in. We see a consistent trend of people selling before earnings reports in a panic sell with various stocks although I don't think this downward trend will be necessary or long lived for the stock giant like NFLX.
Naked puts over earnings on SQSold x2 naked puts at the $43 strike for this week's expiration. SQ is gapping down, but should see support in the $45 area. If $45 is lost, that lower trend line will most certainly be tested. I expect a bounce there unless the market completely rolls over.
FYI I don't mind owning shares of SQ long term since I'm confident the stock will rebound.
Cheers!
$SFIX Stich Fix Fibonaccis And Fifty (Say That Three Times Fast)SFIX retraced today to close at 62/38 Fibonacci of last upwards move. The earnings call scheduled for Mar 12, 2018 at 5:00 PM Eastern could act as a catalyst to retest 30s. Expect some bag holders who bought late in 2018 to bail when they see the green light, increasing the odds of the beloved "gap and trap". Lots of short interest, and lockup expiration coming soon = this is not a set it and forget it trade!
Earnings play pt.4BT is currently in a flag pattern, so is the RSI and the CCI.However, BT does not really show that much volatility in recent earnings reports. So, I would only be shorting till the 50 SMA.
Earnings play pt.3AMZN has dramatically increased from the last earnings report. I have placed a long and a short order to take advantage of the volatility this stock shows near earnings reports, currently, the ADX is showing that the price could be rebounding in the future. Also, the Coppock curve is heating up, so, there could be a short-term fall.
GE - Time to bet on a rebound?THE BACKDROP
GE closed at $32.25 on Dec 20 2016, at the top of its long term trading channel. The stock has lost 50% since, closing at 16.26 yesterday. This downfall has been ugly, with heavy selling volume, especially most recently. There is no telling how much lower the stock will go. Currently, the stock looks oversold on all time frames and could be ready for a bounce-back on any marginally positive news - Perhaps as early as this week when the earnings are announced and we start to hear about measures to fix the business…
THE TRADE
I do not like to catch falling knives, and would not normally be compelled to enter a stock with disappointing fundamentals and such an ugly technical configuration. However, there is an options trade which looks interesting at this stage, and might be worth considering ahead of earnings publication in 2 days. Look to get synthetically long close to the money, and to finance such position by selling a longer, further OTM put.
THE SETUP
1. Sell $15 SEP PUT and cash in $0.94/share (indicative).
2. Buy $17 JUN CALL and pay $0.92/share (indicative).
THE OUTCOMES
If the stock trades up, capture synthetically the full upside.
If the stock trades down, the worst case is to hold GE at $15.
If the stock remains range-bound —> No impact.
THE ALTERNATIVE
For those looking for risk-less opportunities, and do not mind paying for them, look to trade only the second leg (buy call)...
Neckline break on Inverse H&S. Huge Short Interest & Big ER 1/30Company Swinging to a first time ever Profit. At the inflection point in SAAS industry and has a HUGE client that has been delayed all year but expected to close this month. Should be announced at E/R 1/30. Next qtr Revenue/Earnings will Skyrocket. Was $8 Stock last year, and left out of 2017 Rally so has a lot of pent up expansion to do.
THE WEEK AHEAD: EARNINGS APLENTY (PLUS THAT LITTLE SHUT-DOWN)Earnings season is in full swing, with a bevvy of announcements:
NFLX: announces on Monday after market close, with a rank of 79 and a background of 44.
VZ: Tuesday, before market open -- rank 80/background 25.
PG: Tuesday, before market open -- rank 86/background 17.
GE: Wednesday, before market open -- rank 100/background 39.
CAT: Thursday, before market open -- rank 84/background 30.
CELG: Thursday, before market open -- rank 78/background 36.
UNP: Thursday, before market open -- rank 78/background 30.
INTC: Thursday, after market close -- rank 97/background 31.
SBUX: Thursday, after market close -- rank 90/background 26.
ABBV: Friday, before market open -- rank 78/background 26.
At the moment, none of these precisely meet my criteria for a play (rank >70; background >50), but NFLX is fairly close and may frisk up during the regular session. Preliminarily, the Jan 26th (5 days 'til expiry) 205/240 is paying 4.66 at the door with break evens wide of the expected. A defined risk setup with the same strikes -- the 200/205/240/245 iron condor pays 1.72, with a max loss of 3.28 and break evens of 203.28 and 241.72 -- basically right at the expected move on both sides.
On the exchange-traded funds front, the top three funds ranked by implied volatility rank or percentile are: FXI (75/22), XLB (79/16), and XLU (86/17). As with earnings, these don't meet my criteria for a play (rank >70; back ground >35), but it's always worth knowing what is potentially on the move or might set up for a play given the right conditions.
With volatility products, I'm basically hand-sitting here (there was no weekly expiry to take advantage of last week). I added a few spreads on that pop and don't want to go overboard in the event that there is further market unrest in connection with the government shut-down. Although the VXST/VIX ratio has trundled down to below 1.00, it still remains fairly high at .924 and VVIX is still >100 (101.59). Instead, I'm looking to scratch out the most at-risk spreads I have on (VXX 25.5/28.5's, generally) if I get an opportunity to do so, since that uptick got me in at better strikes ... .
Earning play pt 2IBM has gapped up since yesterdays open. Looking at prior earning reports the stock does provide us with the volatility we need to profit off this earning. The RVI is backing this idea with the breakout in the trend. However, the RSI is showing this stock could potentially be overbought and a short-term sell off could occur. Also, the 50 MA is providing the support for the stock. Potentially, a short and long hedge could be played here.