EBAY
EBAY Inc Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t shorted the news that EBAY Active buyers declined 13%:
then you should know that looking at the EBAY Inc options chain, i would buy the $39 strike price Puts with
2022-11-11 expiration date for about
$1.53 premium.
If the options turn out to be profitable Before the earnings release, i would sell at least 50%.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
EBAY Active buyers declined 13%I remember i was also a user of EBay in the past few years, but i closed my account in January because of their high fees and lack of sales. i got less views per product than before.
And i noticed that my personal experience with SHOP Shopify and SSTK Shutterstock selling less or PYPL PayPal high fees was other people`s problem too. and we moved away from those services.
Active buyers on eBay declined 13% in the quarter.
Revenue fell 6% to $2.48 billion, but above expectations of $2.46 billion.
The forecast for earnings of 87 - 91 cents per share is below the average analyst view of $1.01 per share.
CFO Stephen Priest: "Those negative (war) impacts will continue through 2022".
My buy area is around 37-40usd.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
EBAY:FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS + NEXT TARGET | MUST READ Last month, the online marketplace eBay acquired a specialty NFT marketplace called KnownOrigin. The press release stated that KnownOrigin is the "leading" NFT marketplace. As a cash-rich company, eBay was well positioned to finance this acquisition.
However, with limited growth opportunities, the company must be careful not to lose focus on shareholder returns. And the purchase of KnownOrigin is likely a step in the wrong direction.
There are three basic phases in the life cycle of a public company: the need for capital, self-financing, and returning capital to shareholders. In the first phase, loss-making companies receive funding from banks and shareholders to build the business in hopes of achieving scale. In the second phase, companies have achieved enough scale to generate positive cash flow, but they continue to invest all available resources to grow the business. In the third phase, growth opportunities are limited, so cash flow must be used to reward shareholders.
These phases exist at different levels, and their borders do not have clear lines. For example, a company can return some capital to shareholders while still investing in growth. But the main point is that investors need to know what phase of the life cycle the company is in order to evaluate opportunities. Stocks in each phase can be good investments if management uses cash wisely.
As for eBay, it is in phase three because growth opportunities are limited. Consider that in the fourth quarter of 2017, the company generated $2.7 billion in revenue. In the fourth quarter of 2021, it generated only $2.6 billion. In short, quarterly revenue is down almost 4 percent over that time period.
However, eBay's earnings per share rose 62% during that time as the company's management bought back billions of dollars worth of its own stock.
Even though eBay is no longer growing, it is still a cash-generating machine. As a marketplace, the company doesn't keep inventory, which keeps costs low. It simply connects buyers and sellers and charges a fee. That's why the company's free cash flow (FCF) margin was 25% in 2021 - few businesses have higher margins.
Through buybacks, shares are withdrawn from circulation and the remaining shares become more valuable - thus rewarding eBay shareholders. The company also pays a fast-growing dividend - up 58% over the past five years - which helps boost overall returns. This is a great use of cash by eBay management.
As of Q1 of 2022, eBay has $4.7 billion left in its stock repurchase plan. Given that its current market capitalization is only $24 billion, this plan is significant. But the company has enough resources to execute it. The company has more than $5 billion in cash and short-term investments on its balance sheet, a quarterly FCF of more than $500 million, and $5.3 billion in long-term investments in other e-commerce and financial technology companies.
We hope you anticipate eBay's potential to return capital to shareholders in the coming years. It could be a path to earnings that exceed the market. That assumes, however, that management won't be too distracted.
By acquiring KnownOrigin, eBay may be distracted from its goal. Terms of the deal have not been disclosed, but it is likely that the company paid a price that was well within its means. However, even if it is acceptable, the NFT market space is hardly a path to growth. That's why many people don't like this acquisition. What's more, according to DappRadar, KnownOrigin ranks only 41st among NFT marketplaces by volume - at least in the last 30 days.
We don't have time to delve into the rabbit hole of NFT. But suffice it to say that NFTs can be more than just a collector's item. They can be used for record-keeping, live event ticketing, reservations, and more. But it doesn't sound like eBay is interested in this potentially innovative side of the NFT market.
The company is interested in NFT collectibles and has been experimenting in that direction since May 2021. But according to NonFungible, NFT sales (in dollars) have dropped 90% over the past year. The number of unique customers is also down 42%.
Management's desire to stay relevant is understandable. But if eBay doesn't find real growth opportunities, it should focus on shareholder returns. Given current trends, NFT collectibles will not be what management had hoped for. And so jumping into this space could distract management from making the best use of its cash at the moment.
ONLN Price Target $39 by Jan 2023This is purely an Amazon play, but ONLN is now trading below Pre-IPO levels. I believe that its exposure to Amazon, alongside other names that have seen a brutal sell-off (MELI, BABA, EBAY), makes it an excellent long-term buy for traders looking to find a great cost average entry point for the long term. We have to remember that Amazon is a great business still experiencing 20%+ YoY EBITDA growth and is sitting on 96bn dollars of cash. I also expect Amazon to see further price appreciation with its upcoming 20-1 split.
A great SHORT of Ebay in a Bearish marketClassic (W) in downtrend & long term (M) in down trend.
waited for a Bounce (correction) up to the
last Lower High of the (W) took the SHRT at
60.10
My risk was right above the inverted hammer
& down she goes 7 weeks or seven red candles
sticks.
I closed my Short today, while price is coming into a strong DZ
from the monthly chart
I fought Greed to keep the SHRT open, & test the DZ strength
of buyers. But my Target objectives were met.
Am focusing on letting winners run.
EBAY SHORT TERM LONGWe just finished full Elliot wave with an ABC correction, we bounced off of a strong demand zone, and we should see a retracement to a 50% fib zone.
RSI: RSI touched 30 zone and is heading to cross a signal line, that indicates we are heading for a bullish momentum.
Entry: 54
Target: 65
Invalidation: 49
eBay | Fundamental Analysis | MUST READ !eBay was one of the main beneficiaries at the beginning of the pandemic. People turned to the e-commerce and auction site for items they needed and wanted to buy, avoiding in-person purchases.
Now the trend is shifting in eBay's favor as the economy around the world recovers. Against this backdrop, the company plans to report Q4 earnings tomorrow. While long-term investors don't usually buy and sell stocks based on short-term events, some employ earnings reports as markers to determine whether to add to their holdings or as a clue to possible bargain opportunities. With that in mind, let's see if investors should buy this retailer's stock before the report comes out.
eBay does not own or sell merchandise on its platform. Instead, the company creates and operates a platform that connects buyers and sellers. To generate revenue, eBay charges a different fee for each transaction on the platform.
Perhaps buyers and sellers are equally important to eBay's success. Buyers would stop visiting the site if there were no attractive items to buy. Conversely, sellers would stop listing items if there weren't many people willing to buy them.
The COVID pandemic brought millions of new buyers to eBay. From the Q2 of 2020 to Q1 of 2021, the total number of active eBay buyers improved from 161 million to 166 million. However, eBay is now reducing the number of active buyers as the economy reopens and buyers have alternatives again.
In addition, management has implemented a new strategy of decreased marketing and promotions aimed at lower-cost shoppers. These two forces working together caused the number of active buyers to drop from a peak of 166 million to 154 million at the end of Q3.
The decline in the number of shoppers may be one of the main reasons why gross merchandise value (total sales value) fell more than 12% year over year to $19.4 billion. This figure is very important because eBay earns revenue by taking a percentage of this value as a commission. Nevertheless, despite the drop in gross merchandise value, eBay has increased its revenue year after year.
How has it been able to achieve this? By increasing the percentage it charges per transaction. eBay's collection rate per transaction increased from 9.2 percent in the second quarter of 2020 to 12.1 percent in the Q3 of 2021.
One might assume that sellers are not thrilled with the fee increase. Yet the same cannot be said for the number of sellers on the eBay platform, which has remained unchanged at 19 million over the past year.
Perhaps sellers are happy that eBay is offering more services for higher fees. In recent quarters, eBay has been improving its services to encourage more transactions. One of the main friction points on the eBay platform is trust between buyers and sellers, and this is where management has focused its efforts to increase investment.
In the latest of these initiatives, eBay announced on Jan. 25 that it will offer an authentication service for trading cards over $750 sold on eBay. Consumers can now shop with peace of mind knowing that eBay will authenticate these cards to make sure they are not counterfeit and come as advertised.
Trading cards are an important category on eBay, with a gross merchandise value of $2 billion in the first half of 2021. Authentication comes in addition to pricey handbags, sneakers, and watches.
eBay stock is trading at a price to free cash flow ratio of 15.7 and a projected price to earnings ratio of 13.2. These prices are roughly in line with the average sales level of the past five years. In the near term, the company may continue to be challenged by the changing of the stay-at-home trend.
In the long term, however, an increasing share of purchases is moving online. In addition, eBay gets a larger share of each transaction and reinvests some of its profits, strengthening its services. eBay may not be an explosive growth stock, but it offers investors good value at the current price. The stock is probably worth buying before or after an upcoming earnings report, especially if you plan to buy and hold it long enough to benefit from the company's growth over time.
EBAY outside the 1 year bullish channel!eBay lost its bullish channel after 13 months!
It could go down to 60 and lower ..!
Unless it get back to the channel!
You can see the most important support (green lines) and resistance (red lines) to watch in the coming days in these charts!
Best,
Moshkelgosha
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA , an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
$EBAY Target 1 59.07$EBAY Target 1 59.07
Ok, so I did sell 57.5 puts on the Feb 18th expiration but that sure looks close… LOL.
It’s ok. I’ll double down at Target 2 if I get put.
GL, y’all…
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I usually trade both ways, but lately I’ve been focusing more to the downside because of how high the market is. It makes more sense to sell puts right now, and I’m usually at Target 2.
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I am not your financial advisor, but I will happily answer questions and analyze to the best of my ability but ultimately the risk is on you. Check out my ideas, but also do your own due diligence.
I am not a bull. I am not a bear. I just see what I see in the charts and I don’t pay too much attention to the noise in the news.
Very often you have to look at my charts from the perspective of where I’m looking to sell puts. But I also do open positions still once in a while.
If you want me to analyze any stock or ETF just leave me a comment and I’ll do it if I can.
Have fun, y’all!!
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$EBAY Undervalued & OversoldEBAY has a very stable, profitable and long history of operating business model. With a P/E around 21 and only $42b market cap it's relatively cheap. It looks to be setting up for a good long play here with price below the lower Buy Sell Band, 8.40% below the 50 day MA, and solid Range Strength/Hurst Exponent readings for a mean reversion play.