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SONAE: Fundamental figures too good to overlook. Time to buy?Fundamental Analysis EBITDA: +7.2% YoY (to €990M in 2023) Margin: 11.8% (-0.2 points YoY) Net Income Group Share = 357 (+6.3% YoY) PER: 1680 / 357 = 4.71 (heavily undervalued considering below data and historical PERs) Net Gearing (Net Debt To Equity Ratio, ): 526/3462 = 0.15 (15%, Prudent) Total Debt To Equity Ratio: 5383 / 3462 = 1.55 (around 1 to 1.5 is healthy according to British Business Bank's article "Debt to equity ratios for healthy businesses") Current ratio: 2010/2502= 0.80 (not healthy and almost unchanged with respect to 2022, see next line. According to Wall Street Prep, 1.5 to 3.0 is healthy) Net Debt to Ebitda = 526 / 990 = 0.53 Working Capital = -1220M€, keeps being negative. Very interesting article from eFinanceManagement explains the Advantages of Negative Working Capital for a cash-rich company whose operating cycle is fast (it may mean that they can bargain very well with their suppliers who provide the funds and the flexible time limit to pay). Prev Current ratio (2022): 1938/2465 = 0.79 Proposed dividend for 2023: 0.05639€ EPS = 357M€ / 2000M = 0.18€/share (ATH?) Current dividend yield = 6.19% Dividend Payout Ratio = x 100 = 31% Free cash flow Dividend payout ratio = x 100 = 60% Technical Analysis There was a disjoint channel happening since July 2022 on the Daily Graph in which the share price dropped out in the lower end in December 2023. Since the company has very good fundamentals, the possibility of an inverse H&S could be around the corner, having an interesting point of entry at 0.78-0.81. However, the share price is already heavily undervalued considering the fundamental analysis previously done. The daily RSI (14) bounced back in March 2023 from below 30 directly to the upper band at 70 indicating the possibility of a continuation of share price upward movement up to +20%. Therefore, it is up to the investor to decide whether at current prices (0.85-0.88€) is already worth the risk (if the 0.78€ ever gets touched and then bounces back up, the drawdown risk would be -11.4%). Finally, it is expected that on May the company will pay the dividend. Therefore, the share price may re-adjust its value upwards in April before the dividend is paid and the share price is subsequently slashed down again. Have a great week ahead.
GETTEX:YSONLong
by alexinve
Nordex's YoY losses up 133% and Debt/Equity ratio up 54%FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS Current liabilities increased 47% up to €3.4bn in 2022 from €2.3bn in 2021. Non-current liabilities decreased 37%. Debt to Equity ratio (2022) = 4.42x Debt to Equity ratio (2021) = 2.87x Losses YoY increased 133% to €522 million. EBITDA turned negative in 2022 to -€244 million from €52,672 million in 2021. Almost all Guidance provided in March 2022 was exceeded downwards except for Sales Guidance. Positive side: Sales increased 4.58%. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Since April 6, the company has entered into a downward trend that in Oct 2022 attempted to turn around. However, the banking crisis and inflation fears persist in a way that Nordex's stock performance graph experienced the appearance of a Bearish Bat pattern whose prophecy together with its recently issued FY 2022 results could materialise in the following days and weeks to come.
XETR:NDX1Short
by alexinve
Nordex: Profit Warning from May 2022 underestimated actual costsRECAP: Back in May 25, 2022, Nordex issued a profit warning and its stock was down -17.05%. The new estimates where: FY2022 PROFIT WARNING ESTIMATES FROM MAY 2022 (Source: Nordex's IR website section): – FY2022 Consolidated sales: EUR 5.2 to 5.7 billion – FY2022 EBITDA-margin: minus 4 to 0 percent, including all one-off effects - Capital expenditure: EUR 180 million - Working capital ratio: below -7% In March 31st, 2023 investors got to know the actual figures of the company. FY2022 ACTUALS (Source: Nordex's IR website section): – FY2022 Consolidated sales: EUR 5.6936 billion – FY2022 EBITDA-margin: -4.3% - Capital expenditure: EUR 204.8 million - Working capital ratio: -10.2% Capital expenditure and staff costs were up 21.4% and 18.5%, respectively. The company suffers from delays in project intakes. Overall, I reckon Consolidated sales were in the upper boundary of the profit warning but costs increased dramatically, probably due to inflation and related supply-chain issues that are still not fully corrected from China today, in 2023.
XETR:NDX1Short
by alexinve
Buy signal on weekly chart for $MSGEMadison Square Gardens Entertainment has upcoming earnings on August 19th. With the data provided by AXP travel & entertainment spending are up as spending has shifted from goods to experiences, entertainment, and services. This is exemplified in what retailers are reporting. And I think this will be positive for MSGE. Currently, the middle and upper classes are doing fairly well while the lower class is suffering from the regressive tax of inflation, which is unfortunate. Those with disposable income and better economic situations are more likely to be MSGE customers boding for a good quarter and less risk from demand destruction. MSGE is trading above its 52-week lows at 0.5629 its book value, providing tremendous value and a good risk-reward ratio. Its EBITDA and EBIT have gone from negative previously to positive in the past two quarters. Gross profit has turned positive for the past 4 quarters and net income has been improving over the past 3 quarters. Anytime the K% crosses the D% on the Stoch RSI around the level of 1.73, MSGE goes for a decent rally. If you average the two past rallies (MSGE has a short trading history) from the week the bullish Stoch RSI cross happened to a relative peak, it's a 59.47% move that could be implied over the next 6-12 months. It has significant resistance at the $68.06 level. It recently broke out through a downtrend line that started in mid-April. It is still in a downtrend, but it seems the prudent thing to do would be to create 1/3 to 1/4 of a full position in the stock now and buy the next tranche upon a higher low or higher high. I have a price target of $81 on it by the end of the year. That's roughly 40% upside from here. The highest PT on the street for MSGE is $100, the lowest is $63, and the average is $82.83.
NYSE:MSGELong
by EBITDAtiger
Our Globalized WorldNow that Q3 earnings season it is time to return to the fundamentals. In light of the current turmoil in the middle east, today we will talk about globalization. One of the most interesting things about global financial markets is that they are all connected in one way or another. I like to compartmentalize globalization into two general categories supply chains and political influences. In today’s episode, we will focus on supply chains. When providing context into supply chains, I do not think there is a better example than Apple’s iPhone. Of course, the iPhone was designed back in Cupertino, CA, but the supply chain runs into multiple different countries. The complexity is mind-boggling, there are over 175 individual components. Additionally, the design and assembly of these components also happen in distinct parts of the world, in the US and China. The complexity is all done in an attempt to reduce costs by outsources cheap parts and labor but it also comes with associated risks. If one link in the chain breaks then the probability of success is essentially broken. A perfect example of this is the automotive industry. Following the reopening of countries around the world due to the COVID-19 induced shut down, assembly lines around the world were closed. As things ramp back up, a delay in a single component, no matter how minimal, can cause significant disruptions. Another inlet to the supply chain is shipping channels. Back in March 2021, there was an incident with a cargo ship that became barged in the Suez Canal. If you are unfamiliar with the Suez Canal, it significantly reduces travel time from the Indian Ocean to the Atlantic. The bargain is not only delayed the individual ship but every ship behind it. This created delays throughout the global shipping community that results in months and millions in delays. This is example is not limited to boats but can be seen in any transportation medium, such as the hacking of the Colonial Pipeline which created petroleum shortages across the East coast. Supply chain disruptions could hit any industry at any time. The most significant feature of this trend is that shipping rates have been rising for over 30 years and there is no end to the trend. Even in the COVID-induced recession shipping rates rose. As companies optimize costs through increased globalization, the risk of supply chain disruptions also increases a counterproductive tradeoff. Personally, I like and own the company $GSL which will benefit from the crosswinds either way. The company owns and operates shipping vessels around the world. As volumes increase their pricing power expands. In the unlikely scenario where volumes begin to decrease they will still maintain market share and become cash flowing machine. Additionally, if the industry consolidates then decreasing shipping rates will incentivize companies to continue to invest abroad. The company had a couple of problematic years due to the increased political tension during Donald Trump’s tariff-friendly administration but has been on the rise ever since. If there is a continued globalization-friendly administration the stock could continue to outperform. In particular general performance to the DJT (Dow Transportation Index), it has been a laggard. Potential for mean-reversion?
NYSE:GSLLong
by howdydany
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