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GOLD REACHES NEW HEIGHTS AMID RISING SAFE-HAVEN DEMANDUS economic data   Positive news came from the jobless claims, which dropped to 241,000, much lower than expected and down from the revised 260,000 from the previous week. US retail sales also did better than predicted, rising by 0.4% from the month before, compared to an expected 0.3% increase. Nonetheless, positive retail sales and strong jobless claims are unlikely to alter the course of the Fed's monetary policy. ECB rate cut   ECB cuts rates as expected and upcoming months will be crucial as the ECB evaluates economic conditions and decides on its future monetary policy approach. US dollar index-   The US dollar index showed a minor decline due to profit booking.  A break above 104 would confirm a continuation of the bullish trend.   Based on the CME FedWatch Tool, the likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut in November has risen to 92.2%, up from 89.50% just a week ago.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by DCFX-TA
EURGBP - How will BOE decisions affect the pound?The EURGBP currency pair is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its medium-term descending channel. In case of an upward correction due to the meeting of the Central Bank of England today, we can see the supply zones and sell within those zones with appropriate risk reward. Breaking the specified support range will pave the way for this currency pair to continue its decline Britain’s Treasury Secretary, Reeves, stated that it is still too early to make changes to economic forecasts following the U.S. election. He also expressed confidence that trade flows between the UK and the U.S. will continue under Trump’s presidency, noting that during Trump’s previous term, the two nations had a strong and constructive relationship. Reeves showed optimism about Britain’s role in shaping the global economic agenda. Meanwhile, the risk of a German government collapse appears more serious than ever. The German government has entered a new phase of political crisis that could potentially lead to the final breakdown of the ruling coalition. Last Friday, a document from Germany’s Finance Minister, Christian Lindner, was leaked, outlining his plans for economic reform in Germany. This document analyzes the economic challenges facing the country and offers proposals, such as corporate tax cuts and increased working hours. With internal tensions peaking, the likelihood of government collapse has risen. ECB Vice President De Guindos stated that the European Central Bank is committed to a data-driven, meeting-by-meeting approach and is increasingly confident in achieving the 2% inflation target. Goldman Sachs, in its latest report, has lowered its GDP growth forecast for the Eurozone in 2025 to 0.8%, down from the previous forecast of 1.1%. This revision was attributed to potential threats stemming from Trump’s tariff policies following his reelection.
Short
by Ali_PSND
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Nov 1, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: The Eurodollar surpassed our Mean Resistance level of 1.083 during this week's trading session, demonstrating enough strength to initiate a robust interim rebound. However, ongoing selling pressure has pushed the Eurodollar back down to our Mean Support level of 1.083, which now acts as the inverse of the previous resistance. The Euro will likely decline further, potentially hitting the Inner Currency Dip of 1.075 through Mean Support at 1.078. This price action will be significant and trigger an interim rebound to the newly established Mean Support level of 1.082.
by TradeSelecter
EUR/USD shrugs as eurozone CPI rises to 2%The euro is flat on Thursday after three straight winning days. In the European session, EUR/USD is unchanged on the day, trading at 1.0854. Eurozone inflation rose to 2% y/y in October, up from 1.7% in September and above the market estimate of 1.9%. This was the fastest increase since April. The main drivers of the inflation increase were services and food prices. Services inflation continues to be a headache for the European Central Bank, unchanged at 3.9% and almost double the target. Monthly, CPI rose 0.3% after a 0.1% decline in September. Core CPI remained at 2.7% y/y, just above the market estimate of 2.6% and the lowest level since February 2022. How will the European Central Bank react to the inflation report? The central bank has been in the forefront of the rate-cutting trend, having lowered interest rates three times this year. The ECB is expected to trim rates at the December meeting, although the October inflation data indicates that inflation has not yet been fully contained. ECB President Lagarde said after the inflation release that she expects inflation will sustainably reach the 2% target in 2025. The eurozone labor market remains strong despite a sluggish economy. Thursday’s unemployment report showed the unemployment rate fell to 6.3% in September, down from 6.4% in August and the lowest level since the eurozone was establish in 1999. The ECB, like other major central banks, will have to balance a strong labor market against weakening inflation as it determines its rate path for the coming months. EUR/USD tested resistance at 1.0885 earlier. Above, there is resistance at 1.0913 1.0842 and 1.0814 are the next support levels
by OANDA
1
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Oct 25, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: The Eurodollar has experienced persistent bearish sentiment during this week's trading session, demonstrating insufficient strength to initiate any interim rebound. The prevailing selling pressure has lowered the Eurodollar to our Mean Support level of 1.079. A temporary rebound led to the reversal of the previously established Inner Currency Dip at 1.083, which currently stands as Mean Res 1.083 and might serve as the Interim Rebound's first stage. The Euro appears poised for further decline, potentially reaching the inner currency dip of 1.075, which remains notably significant and triggers second stage Interin Rebound to Mean Sup 1.078.
by TradeSelecter
The euro has rebounded and is awaiting further price triggers Bank of France governor Villeroy de Galhau emphasized that the eurozone economy is in a precarious state, with the ECB continuing to impose high interest rates that further restrict economic activity. Additionally, Finland's central bank governor, Oli Rehn, stated that the prospects for economic growth have deteriorated in recent months, which is likely to elevate disinflationary pressures. EURUSD rebounded to 1.0820 after testing the support at 1.0780. The price breached the descending channel’s upper bound and EMA21, awaiting an upward trigger for further upside. If EURUSD sustains its uptrend and surpasses EMA78, the price may gain upward momentum to 1.0940. Conversely, if EURUSD re-enters within the channel and breaks 1.0780, the price could fall further to the support at 1.0670.
by inkicho_exness
EUR/USD calm as Lagarde says disinflation on the right trackThe euro is showing limited movement on Tuesday. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0806, down 0.07% on the day. Earlier, the euro fell as low as 1.0800, its lowest level since Aug. 2. The European Central Bank has been aggressive in its rate-cutting cycle and has trimmed 75 basis points this year. The key interest rate has been brought down to 3.25%, its lowest level since February 2023. There is room for further cuts, as the eurozone economy is struggling and inflation has dropped to 1.6%, comfortably below the ECB’s target of 2%. ECB members are sounding optimistic about deflation, which is necessary for the central bank to continue cutting rates. ECB Governing Council member Peter Kazimir said on Monday that he expects inflation to drop to the 2% target in 2025. Kazimir said he was “increasingly confident that the disinflation path is on a solid footing”. This optimistic view was echoed by ECB President Lagarde on Tuesday. Lagarde reiterated that she expected the inflation target to be reached in 2025 and that the inflation numbers were “relatively reassuring”. Still, Lagarde added a note of caution, saying that services inflation was at 3.9% and the inflation battle was not yet won. The Federal Reserve is expected to continue cutting rates in the final two meetings of the year, but by how much? The Fed showed its aggressive side last month when it started its rate-cutting cycle with a jumbo cut of 50 basis points. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said on Monday that the September rate decision was a “close call” and she expected further rate cuts in order to prevent the labor market from continuing to weaken. EUR/USD tested resistance at 1.0833 earlier. Above, there is resistance at 1.0854 1.0793 and 1.0772 are providing support
by OANDA
The euro lost its upward momentum due to recession fears Worries about a potential recession in the eurozone, coupled with the ECB's decision to implement further rate cuts, are negatively impacting the sentiment toward the euro. Spain's September CPI (YoY) dropped to 1.5%, marking the lowest since April 2021, while France's CPI (YoY) came in at 1.1%, falling short of the market consensus of 1.2%. Moreover, Germany's ZEW Current Conditions in October plummeted to -86.9, reaching the lowest since May 2020, intensifying concerns about the Eurozone economy. EURUSD briefly breached the descending channel’s upper bound but failed to hold the upward momentum, falling to 1.0810. If EURUSD maintains a downtrend within the channel, the price may fall further to 1.0670. Conversely, if EURUSD breaches the channel’s upper bound again and rises above EMA21, the price could advance toward 1.0940.
by inkicho_exness
EUR/USD lower, ECB’s Kazimir confident in ‘disinflation path’The euro has edged lower on Monday. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0838, down 0.24% on the day. The European Central Bank lowered its key interest rate last week by a 25 basis points to 3.25%, the first back-to-back rate cuts since December 2011. The rate cut was the third time the ECB has lowered rates this year, as it has been aggressive in its rate-cutting cycling, totaling 75 basis points. The rate statement from last week’s meeting noted that the “disinflationary process is well on track” and that the inflation outlook had improved due to “recent downside surprises” in economic activity. The September inflation report, released just before the rate announcement on Thursday, indicated that inflation dropped to 1.7% y/y, down from 1.8% in August. This was a milestone as it was the first time inflation has dropped below the ECB’s target of 2% since July 2021. The optimistic stance was reiterated by ECB Governing Council member Peter Kazimir, who said on Monday that he expects inflation to drop to the 2% target in 2025. Kazimir said he was “increasingly confident that the disinflation path is on a solid footing” which would allow the ECB to continue cutting interest rates. The ECB remains somewhat cautious, particularly over wage growth and services inflation which have been stubbornly high and are upside risks to the inflation outlook. Still, after three rate cuts this year it’s clear that the direction of the rate path is down and the markets expect the ECB to continue trimming rates right through to March 2025. EUR/USD has pushed below support at 1.0854 and is testing support at 1.0837. Below, there is support at 1.0808 1.0884 and 1.0900 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Oct 18, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: The Eurodollar experienced sustained bearish sentiment again during this week's trading session, with the prevailing selling pressure completing our Inner Currency Dip of 1.083. A transient rebound is in progress to the Mean Res 1.090. However, considering the current bearish price action, the probability of further declines to the support level of 1.079 and the next Inner Currency Dip of 1.075 remains substantial.
by TradeSelecter
EUR/USD dips after ECB lower ratesThe euro can’t find its footing and has tumbled 2.7% in October. EUR/USD has stabilized on Friday and is trading at 1.0835 in the European session, up 0.05%. On Thursday, the euro dropped as low as 1.0810, its lowest level since August 2. The European Central Bank didn’t surprise anybody with a quarter-point rate cut on Thursday, the first back-to-back rate cuts since December 2011. The markets had fully priced in the move and the euro responded with slight losses. ECB President Lagarde has discarded forward guidance and stressed that rate decisions will be on a meeting-by-meeting basis, but the markets smelled a rate cut, with low inflation and weak economic growth. The rate statement was optimistic, noting that the “disinflationary process is well on track” and that the inflation outlook had improved due to “recent downside surprises” in economic activity. The ECB has cut rates three times this year and is expected to remain aggressive. The markets expect are forecasting rate cuts of 25 basis points at each of the next three meetings. The eurozone inflation release, made just before rate announcement on Thursday, showed inflation falling to 1.7% y/y, down from the initial estimate of 1.8% and below the 2.2% gain in August. The decline in inflation was helped by a sharp drop in energy prices. Services inflation remains high but eased to 3.1% y/y, down from 2.9% in August. The inflation report reached a milestone, dropping below the ECB’s target of 2% for the first time since July 2021. EUR/USD is testing resistance at 1.0835. Above, there is resistance at 1.0866 1.0803 and 1.0776 are the next support levels
by OANDA
EURUSD Stays In Downtrend After ECB Cut RatesThe Euro is weak across the board after the ECB cut rates by 25 basis points yesterday, as expected. More importantly, Christine Lagarde noted that data suggests the economy in the Eurozone is weakening, which means there could be more rate cuts on the table in the future. However, this will depend on upcoming data, as noted by the ECB President. Looking at the wave counts, we are definitely seeing a bearish impulse. The only question is whether we will still see a fourth wave rally, or if higher ABC recovery will show up. In either case, there should be more weakness after the next bounce, which I will track closely for potential shorts. Strong resistance is definitely around 1.09 to 1.0950. Grega
Short
by ew-forecast
Eurozone CPI falls below 2%, and ECB cuts further by 25bp The Eurozone CPI significantly undershot market expectations, prompting the ECB to implement additional rate cuts. In Sep, Eurozone CPI stood at 1.7%, falling short of the projected 1.8% and decelerating by 0.5% from the previous month's 2.2%. This marks the first instance in 40 months that Eurozone CPI has dipped below 2% since Jun 2021. The ECB has implemented an additional 0.25% rate cut due to slowing economic growth and falling inflation. The ECB stated that the deflation process is proceeding smoothly and anticipates gradually easing labor cost pressures. ECB President Lagarde emphasized that future rate direction in December will be contingent on upcoming economic data. EURUSD is still in a downtrend, falling to 1.0830. The gap between both EMAs widened, and the price broke the 1.0830 threshold, sending out a bearish signal. If EURUSD continues its downtrend within the descending channel and breaks the support at 1.0780, the price may fall further to 1.0670. Conversely, if EURUSD breaches both EMAs and the channel’s upper bound, the price could gain upward momentum to 1.0940.
by inkicho_exness
Hours to Go: Will ECB Cut Rates? Hours to Go: Will ECB Cut Rates? The euro zone economy flashed modest signs of life earlier this week, with a series of indicators suggesting tepid but still growing activity for a region that has narrowly avoided recession for over a year. However, the numbers are possibly unlikely to deter the European Central Bank from moving forward with a rate cut on Friday, a decision that markets have nearly fully priced in as the countdown enters its final 24 hours. Ahead of the decision, the EUR/USD is trading at its lowest since August 2, breaking below its 20-, 50-, 100-, and 200-day exponential moving averages. The key question: will the ECB’s rate cut provide much-needed support to the euro, or will sellers attempt to erase the gains from the August 2nd rally?
by BlackBull_Markets
Euro is falling over economic downturn and the ECB’s rate cuts The market anticipates the ECB reducing rates further at its upcoming monetary policy meeting this week. This is due to the eurozone inflation rate dropping to 1.8%, which already meets the central bank's target. Moreover, mounting worries about an economic recession have amplified the demand for the ECB to persist with interest rate cuts. If the Eurozone industrial production for August and ZEW Economic Sentiment for October, which will be announced today, fall below the previous month's figures and market consensus, the euro may weaken further against the dollar. EURUSD sustained its downtrend and fell to 1.0900. After EMA21 death-crossed EMA78, the gap consistently widens, sending out a bearish signal. If EURUSD stays below EMA21 and breaks 1.0870, the price may fall further to 1.0780. Conversely, if EURUSD breaches EMA21 and holds above 1.1000, where EMA78 coincides, the price could gain upward momentum to 1.1050.
by inkicho_exness
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Oct 11, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: The Eurodollar experienced sustained bearish sentiment during this week's trading session, reaching our reignited Inner Currency Dip of 1.090. The prevailing selling pressure towards the support level of 1.079 is temporarily halted. A transient rebound is anticipated due to the significance of completing the Inner Currency Dip. However, considering the current bearish price action, the probability of further declines to the support level of 1.079 remains substantial.
by TradeSelecter
Is a New ECB Rate Cut Just Days Away? European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde signaled that weaker-than-expected inflation will be on the agenda at the central bank’s October meeting next week. This has fueled speculation that policymakers could move to cut rates again. For the exact date and time of these major economic events, import the BlackBull Markets Economic Calendar to receive alerts directly in your email inbox. Germany’s sluggish growth has added to the ECB’s challenges. While other parts of the eurozone are showing signs of recovery, Berlin issued a stark warning this week, forecasting its economy will contract for a second consecutive year—a major drag on the region’s broader outlook. Technical signals also potentially point to downside risks. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approaching oversold territory, and a break below the 1.0900 level could see traders targeting the 200-day moving average near 1.08710
by BlackBull_Markets
EURUSD weakens due to ECB's dovish stance The Eurozone Retail Trade (Aug) increased by 0.2%(MoM), reaching a five-month high in line with expectations. However, the annual figures fell below expectations, indicating a general decline in consumer spending. In contrast, German factory orders experienced a significant 5.8%(MoM) decrease (previously 3.9%, consensus -1.9%). These conflicting economic indicators may compel the ECB to adopt a cautious stance by prioritizing growth and could result in additional monetary easing, potentially leading to a weakening of the euro. EURUSD broke the 1.1000 threshold and consolidated near the 1.0980 level. EMA21 has death-crossed EMA78 and widened the gap between them, indicating a bearish trend. If EURUSD sustains below 1.1000 and breaks 1.0950, the price may fall further to 1.0870. Conversely, if EURUSD breaches the 1.1000 threshold and EMA21, the price could rise to 1.1050.
by inkicho_exness
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Oct 4, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: The Eurodollar exhibited significant bearish sentiment during this week's trading session, and uncertainty prevailed regarding the currency trajectory amid Dead-Cat rebound activity. Three critical support levels were breached: Mean Support at 1.111, 1.108, and 1.101, ultimately stabilizing at the pivotal Mean Support of 1.097. The prevailing short-term buying pressure propels the currency towards a potential upward movement to the Mean Resistance level of 1.103. Nevertheless, the likelihood of further declines to the supplementary Inner Currency Dip at 1.090 remains strong, given the current interim price action.
by TradeSelecter
Will the ECB's dovish stance put downward pressure on the euro? EURUSD has remained range-bound between 1.1100~1.1215 for the week amidst escalating debates on whether the ECB will implement further rate cuts. Germany's September CPI has dropped to 1.6% YoY, down from the previous month's 1.9%. Market expectations indicate that the eurozone's CPI will decrease to 1.9% in September from 2.2%, marking the first time it has fallen below 2% since July 2021. A sustained decline in eurozone CPI could prompt the ECB to lower interest rates, exerting additional downward pressure on the euro. Since last week, EURUSD has consolidated in the 1.1110-1.1215 range. After breaking EMAs, the price awaits an additional catalyst for a bounce back. If EURUSD recovers above EMA21 and breaches 1.1215, the price could surge to 1.1270, the highest since Jul 2023. Conversely, if EURUSD breaks the support at 1.1110, the price could fall further to 1.1050.
by inkicho_exness
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Sep 27, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: The Eurodollar has exhibited volatile fluctuations in the current trading session, encountering resistance at the pivotal Key Resistance level of 1.119 with a possible extension to retest the completed Outer Currency Rally of 1.124. This pattern reflects uncertainty regarding the currency's trajectory amidst the ongoing Dead-Cat rebound activity. The prevailing short-term buying pressure is directing the currency towards a potential downward movement to the support level of 1.111, with the prospect of further declines to supplementary support levels at 1.108 and 1.101, given the present interim price action.
by TradeSelecter
BTC - 9/24/2024Historically, unemployment and inflation tend to alternate each other- hence the Philips inversion curve and other trading philosophies. Inflation is not necessarily under check in my opinion, but retail and establishments are eyeing up entries here as central banks like the ECB, BOJ, and Fed start cutting their interest rates as job numbers have arguably seemed to look good. In any case, I see cash injections in the economy and eased lending leading to some faith for a bullish scenario. The last time inflation and unemployment alternated severity, it caused a pretty substantial drop in BTC prices before a super-cycle. I'm bullish on the cycle overall.
Long
by O_Positive