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EURUSD Outlook 7th March 2023The EURUSD has been climbing steadily higher, gaining ground against the US dollar as comments and speculation about further interest rate hikes continue to spur sentiment for the Euro. With the price approaching the round number resistance level of 1.07, the questions are 1) could price break above the resistance level? 2) could price climb significantly higher toward the next key resistance of 1.08. With the price at the 1.0688 price level, the current price action looks like a small double top formation is developing. Overall expectation is for the EURUSD to trade higher, breaking above the 1.07 resistance level, but a brief retracement lower could first happen. If the EURUSD maintains above the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement and 1.0665 price level, the uptrend is likely to continue.
Long
by JinDao_Tai
2
EUR/USD dips as eurozone inflation easesThe euro remains busy and is down 0.40% on Thursday, trading at 1.0624. This follows the euro gaining 0.90% a day earlier. The euro's moves today and yesterday have in large part been dictated by inflation releases. Earlier today, Eurozone Final CPI came in at 8.6% for January, down sharply from 9.2% in December. Headline inflation eased for a third straight month, after hitting a peak of 10.6% in October. The core rate has not followed this downward trend and ticked higher to 5.3% y/y in January, up from 5.2% in December. The improvement in headline inflation eased worries that the ECB would have to deliver another 50-basis point hike in May, after the expected 50-bp increase at the March 16 meeting. These concerns that the ECB would remain aggressive pushed the euro almost 1% higher on Wednesday after German inflation edged up to 9.3% in February, up from 9.2% in January and above the estimate of 9.0%. The usual suspects were at play in driving inflation higher - food and energy. The government has provided energy subsidies, but energy prices still shot up in January by 23.1% y/y, while food prices surged 20.2% in January y/y. In addition to the German inflation report, France and Spain also recorded unexpectedly strong inflation. The eurozone data calendar will wrap up with German and eurozone Service PMIs, which have been showing improvement and are back in expansion territory, an indication of a pickup in economic activity. The German PMI is expected at 51.3 and the eurozone PMI at 52.3 points. In the US, the Federal Reserve remains hawkish with its message that higher rates are on the way. Fed member Bostic reiterated this stance, saying that the terminal rate would be between 5% and 5.25% and have to remain at that level well into 2024. The markets have priced in a terminal rate of 5.50%, but worries over sticky inflation have led to some calls for rates to rise as high as 6%. EUR/USD is testing support at 1.0655. Below, there is support at 1.0596 There is resistance at 1.0765 and 1.0894
Editors' picks
by OANDA
5
EUR/USD Advances Towards 1.0700 After German Inflation Data The EUR/USD pair was boosted on Wednesday and advanced to fresh weekly highs following the release of higher-than-expected German inflation data. The pair's advance has also been underpinned by the rise in the German 10-year Bund yield, which reached the highest level in 12 years at 2.724%. At the time of writing, the EUR/USD pair is trading at the 1.0670 zone, recording a 0.94% daily gain, having printed a one-week high of 1.0691. Data released on Wednesday showed that the German annual rate of inflation, measured by the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), rose to 9.3% in February from 9.2% in January, surpassing the market's consensus of 9%. The euro has strengthened amid expectations the European Central Bank (ECB) will continue tightening its monetary policy and raising interest rates longer than previously estimated. Recent inflation reports from Spain, France, and Germany support that case. Furthermore, Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau said on Wednesday it is desirable reaching the terminal rate by September at the latest. Investors are betting on a 50 bps hike by the ECB in March, while the terminal deposit facility rate is now forecasted at 4% from 3.5% previously (currently at 2.5%). EURUSD Daily Chart From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD maintains a slightly bearish short-term bias, although indicators on the daily chart are improving, hinting at a steeper upwards correction. The pair is facing immediate resistance at the 20-day SMA at around 1.0690, and if broken, could pave the way to the next bullish target at the 1.0760 zone. On the other hand, the loss of the weekly lows at 1.0535 would worsen the short-term setup risking a retest of the 1.0500 psychological level and the 100-day SMA at 1.0473.
by Alex_Boltyan_FXAnalyst
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of February 24, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook: The Eurodollar continued a downward spiral this week, as shown on EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For the Week of Feb 17. The price action hit our Mean Sup 1.066 for several days, indicating its bearish mode. The leading downside target designation is Mean Sup 1.052 and the Inner Currency Dip of 1.046. Once this puppy hits our targets, we will see a revival to the upside aiming for the main target of the Mean Res 1.060.
by TradeSelecter
EURAUD: Expecting ECB to be more hawkish than RBA this weekWhere the ECB is being hawkish on rate hikes and has room for manoeuvre, the RBA is trying to be hawkish, but has less room due to low consumer sentiment / general backlash due to the increasing costs due to interest rates - it also seems as though inflation may have peaked, we'll find out soon enough if it's stabilising... In terms of price action, we look to have broken a descending dynamic trendline and we're retesting, I then expect a move up to 1.563 to test this resistance in the coming week.
Long
by Finchcliffe
My Thoughts on the EUR/USDHere are some of the notes I had put down since 2020. I am wondering how long the EUR/USD can hold above the 1.05 lvl . The Federal Reserve is on a path to keep hiking, in hopes of combating inflation and winning on that front. The ECB is stuck between a rock and a hard place as inflation is still extremely high and the economy is barely above water. I think price is going to at least hit 1.05. I am a little skeptical about price hitting the parity level again, at least in the first two quarters, but in the future I think the EUR/USD will like break below the parity level again. Jan 10, 2020 -Focus EUR, GBP, NZD, CHF, ECAD, ZAR, maybe CAD -EUR Likely to push higher during first month or two because price will likely move with GBP, USD experiencing with Manufacturing, US/China Phase One Deal take a few months to show signs of improvement -I will focus on when the EUR drops -thinking price will push to 1.13, then turn around, especially if there is a war with Iran/Iran conducting terrorist activities -if price pushes to the 1.14, my focus with this pair will dissipate and I won't be trading this pair -If price pushes above 1.15, holds for a few days, and doesn't push back below 1.1450 and stay there, then the trend is broken on the down side, price will likely push higher, to around 1.18/1.20 by end of year, if this happened before or during June May 21, 2020 -thinking EUR will push lower -monthly chart pattern showing price may push higher pretty significantly, but fundamentals/market sentiment posting says otherwise -doubt that the ECB will want EUR to appreciate -to push higher, virus would need to subside greatly or a great deal of confidence in a cure/vaccine -EU countries would need to recover Jan 10, 2021 -PT EUR 1.40, CAD 1.20/1.15, GBP 1.50, JPY (want to stay in for as long as I can, price likely to drop to 102), AUD 0.80/then to 0.70, NZD 0.75 then to 0.60, CHF 0.80, ECAD 1.45, ZAR 9.20 -Some prices likely to take more then a year to him my targets. Prices that might hit this year are CAD, AUD, NZD. CHF may hit 0.80 this year, JPY 102 may be broken -No current strong plan Mar 14. 2021 -target 1.40 -monthly chart showing double bottom almost complete, within a monthly inverse H/S -Will price pull below 1.16, I don't see it as stimulus might be the new norm this year -If inflation starts raising considerably/US economy recovers quick, then price will likely push lower, past 1.16 to 1.15 -I think though price will push higher this year, maybe hitting 1.30 Jun 06, 2021 -US economy is open up slowly -ECB is still holding onto the PEPP and has not distributed yet -ECB still looking to be dovish -Price likely to range and whipsaw -FED and ECB not diverging like in 2014 Jun 28, 2021 -price is trading near 1.19 and may break lower because of divergence between FED/ECB -price target 1.15 Oct 13, 2021 -I think price is going to push lower because of the FED and ECB divergence -price having trouble pushing above the 1.20 lvl -the 1.05 or at least the 1.08 might be hit faster than I think -shorts are becoming stronger and stronger -price might drop to 1.08 by Feb 2022 -I doubt 1.20 will be hit because if price breaks below the 1.15 and hits 1.13, the 1.15 will be hard to break -if price is able to stay below 1.15 before Nov, price will likely hit 1.10 Dec 31, 2021 -Said I would only focus on: CAD, JPY (PT 120), ECAD (below 1.40), ZAR, GCHF -No current strong plan Feb 12, 2022 -I am going to stay out of no matter how price is moving -Reason, ECB hinting at being hawkish -only use as a hedge May 07, 2022 -price having trouble pushing lower -I think price may hit parity as sentiment surrounding USD extremely strong, ECB having hard time balancing Russia/Ukraine conflict with its economy and inflation -hints of ECB raising rates in 3rd/4th QTR this is what is going to start price recovering -price may be able to hit 1.10/1.15 if the ECB becomes very hawkish -staying out of the pair for the year Jun 10, 2022 -EUR is a risk currency and could push lower if recession worries increase -majority of central banks raising rates quickly, slow down inevitable -not concerned with this pair and going to stay out for now Aug 07, 2022 -stuck between raising rates and fighting off a recession -in short term I think price will push higher, but won't last for long -if interest rates increase, borrowing costs will increase, ECB has tool to fight this, but will still cause inflation Oct 16, 2022 -I think EUR is going to push lower, but in the short term higher -price on monthly chart is bouncing/testing support of monthly descending wedge, coupled with ECB likely to raise rates, might push the EUR higher -other hand, price could break lower as EZ heads into winter, Russia cutting Oil taps, causing supply crunches Nov 20, 2022 -I think the EUR and GCAD are going to push lower Dec 07, 2022 -working on getting into building my portfolio -looking at building in the EUR, GCHF, GCAD -EUR might push near the 1.10 -EUR going to experience some pain similar to UK, -manufacturing/industrials showing some growth -build into GCAD first then EUR, then Silver Dec 11, 2022 -descending wedge holding -if continues to push higher, might be able to hit 1.10, possibly around 1.12/1.14 (testing resistance of descending wedge) -price also forming an inverse H/S, if correct, price may B/O and push to the 1.22 before breaking lower -EZ close to being in a recession or in a recession already -double digit inflation, could cause ECB to raise rates quickly -ECB looking to possibly stop or reduce asset purchases which could push price higher -wages also increasing along with housing prices -Manufacturing/Industrial growth low -I think EUR will push up initially because ECB will have to raise rates quickly, and FED and ECB might eventually diverge
Short
by DollarSaenz
1
Euro drifting, markets eye PMIsThe euro showed some volatility at the start of last week but since then it has been in calm waters and has stayed close to the 1.0.7 line. We'll get a look at eurozone and German PMIs on Tuesday. The ECB has been criticized for sending mixed messages to the markets, but Christine Lagarde was crystal clear last week when she told EU lawmakers that “in view of the underlying inflation pressures we intend to raise interest rates by another 50 basis points at our next meeting in March”. Lagarde said the ECB would then evaluate future moves, but with inflation still high, the risks for further rate hikes are skewed to the upside. The ECB's primary focus is to tame inflation. Headline inflation fell to 8.5% in January, down from 9.2% in December, but is still unacceptably high. Core CPI has been stickier than expected and wage increases are stemming the drop in inflation. ECB member Isabel Shnabel said last that investors risk underestimating inflation, a warning that the Fed has also made to the markets that have consistently been more dovish about rate policy than the Fed. Schnabel noted that the disinflation process has not started in the eurozone, another signal that the central bank will remain in a hawkish mode for the near future. Fed members continue to pound out the message that inflation remains too high and more rate hikes are needed. Investors are clearly concerned that the Fed will make good on these statements, which has sent risk sentiment lower and the US dollar higher. The markets had high hopes that the March rate increase would be a 'one and done', but it looks like the Fed will continue raising rates into the second quarter. According to CME's FedWatch, the markets have priced in an 83% of a 25-bp hike and a 17% of a 50-bp increase. EUR/USD is testing resistance at 1.0704. Above, there is resistance at 1.0795 1.0604 and 1.0513 are the next support lines
by OANDA
EUR/USD at 3-week low after strong US dataThe euro is down for a third straight day and fell earlier to 1.0629, its lowest level since Jan. 23. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0639, down 0.30%. The US dollar is showing some strength this week against the majors, as US data continues to shine. Retail sales impressed with a 3% gain earlier this week, and PPI and unemployment claims were both better than expected. Is the disinflation process stalled? The markets didn't expect such good numbers, but the economy has proved to be surprisingly resilient to rising interest rates. The Fed has been preaching 'higher for longer' for some time, but the markets stuck to their dovish stance, expecting that the Fed would have to pivot and even cut rates later in the year. The host of strong US numbers has forced investors to recalibrate, and the markets have revised upwards their peak rate forecast to above 5%. The US dollar has been the big winner of the shift in market thinking, and US Treasury yields are at their highest level this year. Fed member Mester said she saw a strong case for raising rates by 50 basis points at the last Fed meeting, a sign that the Fed could move away from the moderate 25-bp hikes if inflation isn't falling quickly enough. Mester said that she didn't see inflation falling to 2% until 2025, which points to a long disinflation process. The ECB raised rates by 50 basis points in February and has signalled that it will do the same at the Mar. 16 meeting. The main financing rate is currently at 3%, well below the Fed (4.5%) and other major central banks. It's not clear what the Bank has planned after the first quarter, but with inflation running at 8.5%, the risk for further rate hikes is skewed to the upside. The ECB has made it clear that rates will remain high until there is evidence that inflation is falling toward the target, which means that the current rate-tightening cycle isn't anywhere near its end. EUR/USD is testing support at 1.0629. Below, there is support at 1.0581 1.0762 and 1.0847 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
1
EURUSD 2023 Know your year! Act early! Don't be surprised! 2 minutes to read and reveal the the matrix! 2 clear, important periods for EURUSD in the last close to 20 years of trading circled red on the chart. Period 1 - August 2020 - Feb 2022 "False break period" Initially, pandemic caused a rush of investment, landslide USD down as cash was poured into stocks, cryptocurrency, etc.. But peaking around December 2020, due to FED starting to rapidly increasing interest rates, causing cash to be very attractive compared to keeping it invested during all time highs, as well as making loans much more expensive, USD started to gain strength again, BIG TIME, most aggressive policy to increasing interest rates was implemented during the coming months. In the meanwhile, EUR delayed increasing interest until July 2022, which explains the huge amount of USD cash compared to EUR in the circled period and beyond, until bottoming at the bottom of the wedge around late 2022 when ECB started pumping interest. Period 2 - Jan 2023 - Today (Feb 2023) "Fresh yearly breakout period" With the ECB targeting higher interest to 3.0%, 3.25% and 2.50% which is a higher expectation from 2.50%, 2.75% and 2.00% just from December 2022, making EUR more attractive to keep cash and less scarce (more expensive to lone) - While the USD is pretty much maximized as to increasing interest / stimulating the economy as during 2020-2022 FED used pretty much the entire toolbox - Leaving 2023 as the year for EUR with the FED playing all the cards they had. The technical breakout we see up above the falling wedge resistance makes perfect sense with the fundamentals - Making EURUSD a long term strong buy position for the year. This is a must know chart to be confident while trading EURUSD . ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Always do your own research and practice caution while trading, especially leveraged products. I would really appreciate comments, questions or any interaction - Thank you! -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Long
by Exactus
2
ECB raises rates but euro fallsThe euro is catching its breath on Friday after some sharp swings over the past two days. EUR/USD is trading quietly at the 1.09 line. This week's central bank rate announcements sent the euro on a roller-coaster ride. The Fed's 25-basis point hike pushed the euro higher by 1.16%, while the ECB hike of 50-bp sent the euro down by 0.76%. The end result is that the euro is back to where it started the week, just below the 1.09 line. The Fed rate decision sent the US dollar broadly lower, as investors were heartened by Jerome Powell saying that the disinflation process had begun and that he expected another couple of rate hikes before the current rate-hike cycle wrapped up. The markets are expecting inflation to fall faster than the Fed is thinking and are counting on some rate cuts this year, even though Powell said yesterday that he does not expect to cut rates this year. The markets were looking for a dovish bend to Powell's remarks and once they found it, stocks went up and the US dollar went down. The ECB meeting came a day after the Fed decision, and the rate hike of 50-bp was expected. Still, the euro fell sharply, perhaps due to a confusing message from the ECB. On the one hand, in its policy statement, the central bank signalled another 50 bp hike in March and kept the door open for additional hikes after March. At the same time, ECB President Lagarde said in a press conference that rate moves would be determined on a "meeting by meeting" basis seemed to veer away from the message in the policy statement. The ECB continues to have trouble communicating with the markets, which will only add to market volatility as investors try to figure out the central bank's plans. The week wraps up with the US employment report. The Fed has said that the strength of the labour market is a key factor in its rate policy, so today's release could have a strong impact on the movement of the US dollar. Nonfarm payrolls fell from 256,000 to 223,000 in December and the downturn is expected to continue, with an estimate of 190,000 for January. The ADP payroll report showed a decline in December, but unemployment claims and JOLT job openings both moved higher, making it difficult to predict what we'll get from nonfarm payrolls. The markets will also be keeping a close look at hourly earnings and the unemployment rate. 1.0921 is a weak resistance line, followed by 1.1034 There is support at 1.0878 and 1.0826
by OANDA
EUR/USD Trims Fed-inspired Gains After ECB DecisionThe EUR/USD pair erased a significant part of Wednesday’s Fed-induced rally as European Central Bank’s (ECB) President Christine Lagarde delivered a cautious press conference, which weighed on the euro. At the time of writing, the EUR/USD trades at the 1.0915 area, posting a 0.65% daily loss, after printing its highest level in nine months at 1.1085. At the same time, the U.S. dollar managed to stage a noticeable rebound as its DXY index gains 0.5%, around 101.70. The ECB decided to raise its main interest rates by 50 bps, being the highest level since November 2008 for the deposit facility rate, which now stands at 2.5%. The monetary policy statement confirmed another 50 bp hike in March, but during the press conference, Lagarde only committed to a “strong intent” and limited the hawkish tone. A dovish tilt was also perceived as the inflation risk was described as more balanced, with the consumer inflation coming down from cycle highs while economic activity is doing better than expected. On the other hand, the dollar recovered across the board on Thursday, trimming post-Fed losses. At the same time, markets continued to cheer Jerome Powell’s confirmation that the disinflationary process has begun as U.S. bond yields continued to fall, although they ended the day away from lows, while the Wall Street indexes extended gains except for the Dow Jones that closed nearly flat. On Friday, the nonfarm payrolls report will be release, with expectations pointing to a 185,000 job increase in January. From a technical standpoint, the EUR/USD maintains the short-term bullish bias, with the price hovering near multi-month highs and above its main moving averages, while indicators remain in positive territory despite losing some bullish momentum. On the upside, the following resistance levels are seen at 1.1035 and the 1.1085 high, followed by the 1.1100 psychological area. On the flip side, support levels could be found at 1.0880, and the 20-day simple moving average at 1.0832.
by Alex_Boltyan_FXAnalyst
2
EURGBP - WEURGBP Another double bottom + TL as support! We could go further and add various other confluences but what's really important to implement your own trade plan in this idea! Double bottom, support 0.88350 areas. Drop below further than that, then I would re-think this idea. Overall stay above the support of 0.88350 and break of the key resistance that has been tested multiple times 0.88950 it's strong resistance but a break above I expect 0.89820 areas to be target. We do have ECB & BOE today... Have a great day ahead, Trade Journal
by Trade_Journal
EURCAD: Testing Strong Resistance Before FED & ECB DecisionsThe EURCAD currency pair has been in an uptrend recently, but price has faced resistance and has failed to break through it. As traders, it's important to keep a close eye on key levels, such as the trendline and the dotted support line, to determine the next potential move in the market. With the upcoming Federal Reserve rate decision, traders are advised to wait before entering any new positions. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to make an announcement on monetary policy, which could impact the EURCAD and other currency pairs. It's also important to note that the European Central Bank is scheduled to announce its monetary policy decision just a day after the Federal Reserve, which could also have a significant impact on the EURCAD. This means that traders should be extra cautious and manage their positions carefully after the Federal Reserve rate decision. In conclusion, the EURCAD is in an uncertain state and traders should wait for the outcome of the Federal Reserve and ECB rate decisions before making any new moves. Stay vigilant, stay informed, and good luck in your trading endeavors!
Short
by natron
2
EURUSD Alert: RSI Divergence and Upcoming Rate DecisionsThe EURUSD has been on an upward trajectory for quite some time now, but the recent price action on the 4-hour chart has raised some concerns. A RSI divergence has been observed, which is usually a bearish signal. As a result, caution is advised for traders who are currently holding long positions in the pair. The upcoming rate decisions from both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank are likely to have a significant impact on the EURUSD. The FED is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, while the ECB is expected to raise rates by 50 basis points. These rate hikes will have a direct impact on the strength of the US dollar and the euro, respectively. It's important to keep a close eye on the trendline and support levels that have been drawn up on the chart. If the price of the EURUSD bounces off the support level, it could indicate a continuation of the uptrend. However, if the price breaks below the support level, it could lead to further downside. In conclusion, the EURUSD is facing some uncertainty in the short term due to the upcoming rate decisions and the bearish signal on the 4-hour chart. Traders should stay vigilant and closely monitor the trendline and support levels to make informed trading decisions. With the FED expected to raise rates by 25 basis points and the ECB expected to raise rates by 50 basis points, the next few days could be critical for the EURUSD. Good luck traders! Check out my previous post "Breaking Down The FX Market: What You Need To Know" for a comprehensive video analysis.
by natron
1
EUR/USD inches closer to 1.10 ahead of FOMC and ECBWe are heading into a potentially very volatile 24-hour period, with the Fed set to kick things off today, before the BoE and ECB make their policy decisions on Thursday. The EUR/USD and GBP/USD will thus be in focus. The trend for both remains bullish heading into these central bank meetings, but let’s focus on the EUR/USD here. All eyes on Jay Powell and FOMC The EUR/USD has remained inside a tight range over the past several days, with 1.0900 area offering resistance and 1.0800 support. Ahead of the FOMC, it has tried to break away above 1.09 handle, although the bullish momentum has understandably been weak with most traders sitting on their hands until the Fed decision is out of the way. I think there is a good chance we could see a bullish break out soon with 1.1000 likely to be the main short-term objective, owing to further weakness in US data. But on FOMC days, there’s usually a bit of volatility before the trend resumes. So, don’t dismiss the potential for another dip before the resumption of the bullish trend. The FOMC is expected to reduce the pace of hiking further, to 25 basis points at the conclusion of its meeting today. The policy statement will be released at 19;00 GMT, with Jay Powell’s presser to start half an hour later. The Fed Chair is likely to keep further hikes on the table and lean against bets they will cut later this year, something which may get interpreted as being hawkish. But as we have seen in recent Fed meetings, the market has been quick to dismiss the Fed’s hawkishness and price in a lower terminal interest rate. Are we going to see a similar response this time, too? More signs of weakening US economy Well, the weakness in US data continued today, with the ADP payrolls printing its lower number since last January at 106K vs. 170K eyed. On top of this, the ISM manufacturing PMI fell deeper in the contraction territory, printing 47.4 vs. 48.0 expected and 48.4 last. Worryingly, new orders contracted at a faster pace too, printing 42.5 vs. 45.1 in December. Employment in the sector declined. Today’s weaker ADP and ISM data follow several other weaker-than-expected data on Tuesday, all helping to re-enforced expectations that the Fed will be more inclined to stop its hiking cycle sooner. Employment Cost Index, a key measure of wage inflation, rose by 1% q/q, which was weaker than expected, while the latest Chicago PMI reading (44.3 vs. 45.1 expected) and CB Consumer Confidence index (107.1 vs. 109.1 expected) both also disappointed. Focus will turn to ECB next The European Central Bank is set to hike interest rates by 50 basis points on Thursday, lifting the Main Refinancing Rate to 3.0% from 2.5% currently. While this is fully priced in, there’s still a lot of uncertainty in terms of forward guidance, which is what will ultimately determine how the markets react on Thursday. Given the recent weak indicators from Germany, it looks like growth at the Eurozone’s largest economy has weakened again, which could be an indication for what’s to come in the early parts of this year. As a result, the ECB will not want to be too aggressive in its forward guidance, especially as other central banks have now either slowed the pace of tightening or paused it. That said, given that inflation remains very high here compared to the US, the ECB is going to tighten its policy at least a couple of more times before pausing. This should help provide support for the euro on the dips. How will the markets react to the ECB decision? So, the interest rate decision should be a straight-forward 50 basis point hike. Let’s take a look at various scenarios insofar as the forward guidance is concerned. Investors will want to know whether the ECB is going to fully commit itself to another 50-bps hike in March and at its next meeting. 1) If so, this should send the EUR/USD 100-200 pips higher on the day, above the 1.10 handle, and cause the DAX and other European indices to slump. 2) The second scenario would be if the ECB keeps the door open for 50-bps hike in March but provides a less hawkish forward guidance for its subsequent meetings. This would probably prevent the EUR/USD from moving too much away from 1.10 handle and keep equity market bulls somewhat happy. 3) The third scenario would be if the ECB does not pre-commit to any further 50-bps hikes and instead suggest that the pace of tightening will slow down. In this scenario, the EUR/USD should drop sharply, perhaps by 100-200 pips in initial response to around 1.0700, while the DAX could surge by 2% or more. By Fawad Razaqzada on behalf of FOREX.com
by FOREXcom
ECB Playbook – Still The Most Determined Hiker in G10It has been clear of late that the ECB is one of, if not the most, determined G10 central banks when it comes to raising rates, tightening financial conditions, and attempting to bring inflation back under control. The battle against rampant inflation will continue at the February meeting, with another 50bps hike expected, as well as guidance accompanying the move that another such aggressive move is likely in March. Rate Outlook Both such moves are full priced in by money markets, with the Governing Council having been resolute in guiding towards this relatively aggressive pace of tightening. A slew of speakers have rammed home President Lagarde’s guidance to this extent at the December press conference, while it was remarkable how rapid and decisive the ECB were in pushing back on ‘sources’ reports that a 25bps hike may be considered in March. In contrast to most, almost all, other G10 central banks, the ECB’s desire to continue tightening financial conditions is clear for all to see. This desire stems from two sources – economic output proving significantly more resilient than had been expected at the end of last year, and core inflation remaining elevated, even as headline CPI continues to roll over. Taking both of these factors into account, it seems rather unlikely that more dovish members of the Governing Council are likely to secure any concessions for now, with the prior guidance of the deposit rate rising to 3% at the March meeting likely to be reiterated. It is the rate path beyond March that is likely to attract significantly more market attention, and be the primary driver of any volatility in the EUR and euro assets more broadly. Our expectation is that the ECB deliver one further 25bps hike in May, before hitting the pause button to assess the impact of the full tightening cycle on the bloc’s economy; it’s worth noting that both household and business borrowing costs don’t yet appear to fully reflect the impact of the 250bps of tightening delivered since last summer, let alone any further hikes. Consequently, the ECB could remain at their terminal rate for longer than their G10 peers. The Balance Sheet Of course, rates are not the only area of consideration, with the mammoth €5tln balance sheet also likely to be under the microscope. At the December meeting, the Governing Council noted that further information would be provided at the start of this year as to how the quantitative tightening process will unfold. While we are already aware that approximately €15bln worth of bond holdings will roll off from the portfolio each month during the second quarter, it is not yet clear the exact composition of said maturing bonds, particularly the national split of bonds which will be jettisoned each month/quarter. Given the importance of core-periphery spreads in ensuring accurate and reliable policy transmission across the bloc, this often-overlooked area of policy will likely attract significant attention. Were we to see a more aggressive pace of asset rundown than markets expect, or a portfolio reduction weighted more heavily than expected towards periphery economies, this could threaten stability in the bloc – sending the BTP-Bund spread back above 200bps, and posing another communications challenge for the ECB. Incoming Data Permits Aggression Despite some potential trepidation around embarking on balance sheet reduction, and the exact manner by which this will take place – outright asset sales are of the cards for now – incoming economic data permits the ECB to retain an aggressive stance for now. Incoming reports have consistently beaten expectations since the turn of the year, with economic activity having proved more resilient than consensus expected largely by virtue of the warmer than expected weather avoiding the full-blown energy crisis that some had predicted. Consequently, it now seems highly unlikely that the bloc will experience the winter recession that many had expected, while the latest PMI figures point to the economy actually having expanded once again as 2023 got underway. Meanwhile, on the inflation front, although energy prices have significantly rolled over, and a clear peak has now formed in headline CPI, core inflation continues to rise, having hit a record high 5.2% in December, and being expected to sit at or around this level for much of the first half of the year, with underlying price pressures intensifying across much of the services sector. This should give the Governing Council enough ammunition to retain their present hawkish stance for at least the next quarter or so, even if the next round of economic projections (due in March) are likely to show a chunky downgrade from the 6.3% headline inflation rate previously forecast for year-end. Trading the EUR One can’t consider the ECB meeting in isolation when looking at the EUR this week, with decisions also on deck from the FOMC and BoE which must both be factored into a trading plan. Personally, from a more fundamental view, EUR/GBP looks like a simpler trade – pitting a determined hiker in the ECB, against a reluctant hiker with the potential for dovish surprise in the form of the BoE. The cross currently trades in a relatively tight range between the 50- and 100-day moving averages at 0.8735, and the 0.89 figure. A break to the top of said range seems a reasonable expectation over the course of the week, particularly with 1-week implied volatility pricing a range of +/- 360 pips during the next 5 trading days. Long EUR/USD could also be considered, and would become more attractive if Wednesday brings a dovish Fed surprise, though the bulls are unlikely to become seriously interested unless and until we have a closing break above 1.0930, the top of the recent range. Trading European Indices European indices will also likely experience a sizeable degree of volatility over the ECB decision. The pan-continental Stoxx 50 is presently butting up against the top of its recent range, with a closing break above 4195 opening the door to a return to the 4300 level that proved rather sticky in December 2021, before last year’s bear market began. Other European indices demonstrate similar characteristics from a purely technical point of view – with both the DAX 40 & CAC 40 also butting right up against the top of recent trading ranges. Given the broader US to Europe rotation currently taking place, it would be no surprise to see all three of these major European benchmarks end the week at new 12-month highs.
by Pepperstone