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EURUSD Outlook 20th March 2023The EURUSD spiked significantly lower from 1.0760 down to the key support level of 1.0525 due to the Credit Suisse issue. Markets were anticipating that the European Central Bank could scale back on its rate increases from 50bps to 35bps, a contributing factor to the drop in the Euro. However, the ECB maintained its decision to hike rates by 50bps and reiterated that it intends to bring inflation down to its 2% target level and that future decisions would be data dependent. This saw the EURUSD climb steadily higher to approach the 1.07 round number resistance level again. Since the EURUSD broke above the 61.8% fib level, the price could consolidate along this level between 1.0650 and 1.07 for the interim. A break of the consolidation to the downside could see the EURUSD retest the near term support of 1.0625 which is the 38.2% fib retracement level. However, I'd still be looking for a rebound to the upside, with the immediate key resistance level at 1.0760.
Long
by JinDao_Tai
4
EUR/USD - Euro heads higher as ECB delivers 50-bp hikeIt has been a busy week for the euro, reflective of the gyrations we're seeing in the financial markets. EUR/USD has bounced back from a mid-week slide and is trading at 1.0661, up 0.46% on the day. In the midst of market turmoil and fears of a full-blown financial crisis, the ECB held its rate meeting on Thursday and had everyone guessing about its intentions. The central bank had strongly signalled it would raise rates by 50 basis points but the bank crisis certainly complicated matters. Credit Suisse shares tumbled by as much as 30% a day before the meeting, weighing on the euro and eurozone bonds. It would have been understandable if the ECB had opted for a 25-bp move due to the market mayhem, but the central bank kept its word and delivered a 50-bp hike, bringing the main rate to 3.0%. Was the 50-bp hike risky in these volatile conditions? Yes, but policy makers may have been encouraged by the Swiss National Bank stepping up and lending Credit Suisse $53 billion, and there was the issue of the ECB's credibility, after President Lagarde had essentially pledged a 50-bp increase. Also, a 50-bp was the strongest medicine the central bank could deliver in the fight against sticky inflation. Inflation may have been knocked out of the headlines this week, but it hasn't gone anywhere and remains the ECB's number one priority. There was good news as the ECB's inflation projections were revised downwards from December. Currently, inflation is expected to average 5.3% in 2023 and 2.9% in 2024, compared to the December estimate of 6.3% in 2023 and 3.4% in 2024. In her press conference after the meeting, President Lagarde was careful not to commit to further rate hikes, saying that rate decisions will be "entirely data dependent.” Still, with inflation well above the 2% target, it's a safe bet that the ECB is not done with the current rate-tightening cycle. 1.0622 has been a key level throughout the week. EUR/USD is testing resistance at this line. Next is 1.0718 There is support at 1.0542 and 1.0446
by OANDA
EUR/USD -16/03/2023-• Technical picture in favor of the bears • 2 bearish patterns on daily chart • First pattern is the broadening pattern highlighted in yellow • Second pattern is head and shoulders highlighted in green • 1.0500 support is very critical at the moment ( neckline of head and shoulders and previous pivot low ) • Yesterday's drop penetrated the 20 MA which is now acting as resistance • Bulls need to overcome 1.0730 resistance to turn the trend in their favors
by RamziAbouAbdallah-CMT
EUR/USD Holds Onto 1.06, ECB Hikes Rates Despite Banking TurmoilThe EUR/USD pair oscillates around 1.0600 on Thursday following the European Central Bank's (ECB) decision to raise rates by 50 basis points as expected, recovering some of Credit Suisse's driven losses the previous day. At the time of writing, the EUR/USD pair is trading at 1.0605, 0.23% above its opening price, after hitting a daily high of 1.0635 earlier on the day. The euro has recovered nearly a hundred pips after bottoming at a two-month low of 1.0516 on Wednesday. As widely anticipated, the ECB increased three main rates by 50 bps on Thursday, sending the deposit facility rate to 3%. The lack of forward guidance was the only notable change as the ECB highlighted the importance of the data-dependent approach, which "will be determined by the inflation outlook in light of economic and financial data." In a presser following the announcement, ECB President Christine Lagarde stated, "It's impossible to determine what the rate path will be" relating to the banking situation and the economic slowdown in the EU. However, she also said that the banking sector is currently in a much stronger position than in 2008 and that the ECB can exercise creativity in short order if there is a liquidity crisis. "We are monitoring current market tensions closely and stand ready to respond as necessary to preserve price stability and financial stability in the euro area," reads the statement. Meanwhile, U.S. and European yields edged lower, signaling investors seeking refuge in government bonds amid worries regarding the banking sector on both shores of the Atlantic. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield stands at 3.44%, while the German 10-year Bund yield sits at 2.21%. Data in the U.S. showed unemployment claims dropped to 192,000 in the week ending March 10, while the housing sector reported a 13.8% increase in building permits in February. Investors' attention now turns to the Fed decision next week, pricing a 25 bps hike as the most likely outcome. From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD short-term outlook has turned neutral to slightly bearish, according to indicators on the daily chart. However, the pair still holds above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), acting as dynamic support at the 1.0560 area. A break below the 100-day SMA will pave the way to a retest of the 1.0500 psychological level and the 2023 low of 1.0483. On the flip side, resistance levels could be found at the 20-day SMA at 1.0623 and 1.0700, ahead of weekly highs at the 1.0750 region.
by Alex_Boltyan_FXAnalyst
EURUSD remains firm with ECB to comeHard to look past the recent banking crisis that has rocked equity markets all week. Credit Suisse was the latest to hit the headlines yesterday, and it certainly hit hard. Risk currencies that have stood up ok felt seller force, and we watched the Japanese Yen cause all types of carnage to the EUR, GBP and AUD. The EUR is our focus today, and so is today's ECB meeting. Some talk emerged that due to the banking crisis, we might see central banks pull back from hikes, but for now, that's yet to be confirmed. Was it really rate hikes that caused this or poor risk management at the banks in focus? Based on what I've read, I'm leaning towards the latter. Yes, there's plenty of pressure on the banking sector right now, but does that warrant a policy change from central banks? Has the underlying issue changed? EU inflation still sits at 8.50%. Last year that number was 5.90%. Yes, it's dropped slightly from last month's 8.60%, but it's still there, and it's going to be very interesting to hear from the ECB later today via the policy statement and press conference. Rates are still expected to be increased to 3.50% today, a 50-point rise. Could we see a 25 hike to help calm nerves? Talk presented around this case, but we feel the ECB may stick with the plan. Let's take a look at the EURUSD. Price continues to hold above 1.0535 support. Yesterday's rejection reconfirmed this level, and so far today, buyers continue to trade above it. A lot comes down to the ECB today. We seriously doubt there will be a larger-than-expected hike, so it's about if we see 50 points or a surprise 25 points. 25 should hit the EURUSD and break support. A hold should continue to support that level, but traders will be looking at the statement for future direction and if the recent issues have impacted the current path. ECB rates decision and policy statement will be released Friday at 12:15 am AEDT. The press conference will follow at 12:45 am.
by Eightcap
Aggressive ECB Rates might push EUR higherConsidering tomorrow´s ECB decison (+50 points agressive hike vs coming +25 FED hike) we might see a change in trend and EUR is likely to move higher. 2023 EURUSD bullish move was driven by ECB hiking rates and they will keep raising them in the next two meetings (16.03 and 02.05) to 4. Hence EUR is likely to keep trending higher intil May 2. After May 2 meeting (it is supposed to be the last hike for 2023) we are likely to see EUR dropping back to 1.0 area as my previous posts suggested. The last ECB 50 points hike did not save EUR from 250 pips fall (after FED hiked rates by 25 points). But we sohould consider cumulutive ECB actions, agressively hiking rates during every meeting. Hence it is unlikely that EUR will drop another 250 pips but contonue back to 1.10 and possible higher. We are likely to see it around 1.10 at the next ECB meeting in May. It is hard to pinpoint the entry, as it well may deep below 1.05 before it goes to 1.10. But we will surely see a trending market for next month. FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY.
Long
by ICFX
1
How FED / ECB Interest rates set trendsWatch how interest rates decisions set trends in EURUSD and Dollar Index impacting the entire forex market. I marked all the previous interest hike decisions by FED and ECB. 2023 EURUSD bullish reversal was triggerred by ECB starting to raise iterest rates (after EUR hit the alarming 1.00 level). EUR might continue bullish until next tow hikes. From what I read ECB does not plan to hike rates for the rest of the year after May meeting (rates will stay at 4), so it is likely to trigger bearish reversal from May. Likelwise, 2020 EUR bullish ride (and dollar weakness) was triggerred by FED lowering interest rates (in March 2020) after COVID hit. FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. Good luck in your trading! God bless!
Education
by ICFX
Credit Suisse Woes Threat to ECB Rate Hike and EUR TradeAfter a brief period of calm following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, Credit Suisse disclosed "material weaknesses" in their financial reporting controls and ongoing customer outflows, setting off another bout of instability across global assets. Credit Suisse's biggest investor, Saudi National Bank, also noted that it could not offer more financial support to the troubled Swiss Bank leading to shares in Credit Suisse falling more than 20%. Switzerland’s central bank has come to the rescue though, saying it is ready to provide financial support to Credit Suisse, if necessary, helping the shares to recover about half of its losses on Wednesday, and rising from its record low under $2.00. There is now growing concern over wider instability in the banking sector. This led to expectations that the Federal Reserve might slow down or pause hiking rates. Although, on Wednesday, the dollar rose due to safe haven buying, while European currencies sharply declined. The Euro, which had seen a 0.02% gain over a month, fell 1.4%, and the market is pricing in a 60% chance of a 25-basis-point hike in euro zone rates on Thursday, compared to a previous 90% chance of a 50-bps hike. The ECB’s interest rate decision is due on Thursday at 9:15am EDT. Elsewhere, the dollar rose 1.8% against the Swiss franc, while sterling traded down 0.8%. The Japanese yen strengthened 0.58%. As investors sought safe havens, gold prices continued their recent rally, with gold up 0.8% and silver up 0.3%. Conversely, oil prices fell by more than $5 a barrel.
by BlackBull_Markets
XAUEUR breaking the up trend channel for more upside push!At the beginning of the year OANDA:XAUEUR broke the down side channel. While banks are bankrupting, we see once again gold is the safe heaven for many people. Most importantly for the central banks which have been accumulating physical gold. FED and ECB will struggle to further increase the interest rates. We may see new ATH within a couple of months! Crazy times again. Disclaimer – WhaleGambit. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
OANDA:XAUEURLong
by WhaleGambit
EUR/USD Takes a Breather After U.S. CPI Data, ECB EyedThe U.S. dollar took a breather on Tuesday following the previous day’s sell-off as markets’ jitters surrounding the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) collapse quieted, while U.S. consumer inflation data showed a slight deceleration in February. At the time of writing, the EUR/USD pair is trading at the 1.0730 zone, virtually unchanged on the day, with the upside still capped by the 1.0750 zone. Meanwhile, the DXY index trimmed daily gains and stabilized around 103.60 after hitting a daily high of 104.05. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index came in line with expectations in February, with annualized inflation hitting 6%, down from its previous reading of 6.4%. On the other hand, the core CPI inflation rate was reported at 5.5% YoY, in line with analysts’ consensus. Following the data, U.S. bond yields recovered across the curve, helping the dollar. The 10-year bond yield is trading at 3.69%, while the 2-year rate recovered nearly 7% and stands at 4.25%. Amid the banking crisis triggered by the SVB collapse on Friday, investors seem to have taken out of the table a 50 bps rate hike by the Federal Reserve at the March 21, 22 meeting. The bets on a 25 bps increased to 73%, while on Monday, the case of a no-change decision was stronger. Wall Street indexes welcomed CPI data and the improvement in sentiment. The S&P 500 gained 1.65%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 1.06%, and the Nasdaq Composite posted a 2.14% daily advance. On Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB) will decide on monetary policy, with analysts expecting a 50 basis point rate hike despite the recent developments. Technically speaking, the EUR/USD pair maintains a slightly bullish short-term outlook, according to indicators on the daily chart. The pair is trading above its key moving averages, and the RSI and MACD have moved into the green. On the upside, the following resistance levels are seen near this week’s highs at the 1.0750 zone and 1.0800 ahead of the more significant 1.0900 region. On the other hand, supports could be faced at the 20-day SMA at 1.0630 and the 1.0600 psychological level, followed by the 100-day SMA at 1.0545.
by Alex_Boltyan_FXAnalyst
EURUSD Outlook 9th March 2023Overnight, the EURUSD saw choppy price action with no clear directional bias as the volatility saw price fluctuate between the key support level of 1.0530 and the 23.60% Fibonacci retracement and price level of 1.0567. Following the "explosive" news from the US that the Federal Reserve was ready to speed up on rate hikes, which saw the EURUSD trade significantly lower from the 1.07 resistance area, the market is now shifting its attention to the ECB and its decision on the upcoming and future interest rates. While a 50bps rate hike for March is pretty much priced in, the question is, what happens after March? With the ECB rate decision due next week, the current directional bias of the EURUSD could still be heavily influenced by the DXY. The price is likely to continue consolidating with a strong breakout potential developing. However, if the EURUSD is unable to break above the 1.0570 price level, the downtrend is likely to continue, with the next key support level (beyond 1.0530) at 1.0480.
Short
by JinDao_Tai
EURUSD Outlook 7th March 2023The EURUSD has been climbing steadily higher, gaining ground against the US dollar as comments and speculation about further interest rate hikes continue to spur sentiment for the Euro. With the price approaching the round number resistance level of 1.07, the questions are 1) could price break above the resistance level? 2) could price climb significantly higher toward the next key resistance of 1.08. With the price at the 1.0688 price level, the current price action looks like a small double top formation is developing. Overall expectation is for the EURUSD to trade higher, breaking above the 1.07 resistance level, but a brief retracement lower could first happen. If the EURUSD maintains above the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement and 1.0665 price level, the uptrend is likely to continue.
Long
by JinDao_Tai
2
EUR/USD dips as eurozone inflation easesThe euro remains busy and is down 0.40% on Thursday, trading at 1.0624. This follows the euro gaining 0.90% a day earlier. The euro's moves today and yesterday have in large part been dictated by inflation releases. Earlier today, Eurozone Final CPI came in at 8.6% for January, down sharply from 9.2% in December. Headline inflation eased for a third straight month, after hitting a peak of 10.6% in October. The core rate has not followed this downward trend and ticked higher to 5.3% y/y in January, up from 5.2% in December. The improvement in headline inflation eased worries that the ECB would have to deliver another 50-basis point hike in May, after the expected 50-bp increase at the March 16 meeting. These concerns that the ECB would remain aggressive pushed the euro almost 1% higher on Wednesday after German inflation edged up to 9.3% in February, up from 9.2% in January and above the estimate of 9.0%. The usual suspects were at play in driving inflation higher - food and energy. The government has provided energy subsidies, but energy prices still shot up in January by 23.1% y/y, while food prices surged 20.2% in January y/y. In addition to the German inflation report, France and Spain also recorded unexpectedly strong inflation. The eurozone data calendar will wrap up with German and eurozone Service PMIs, which have been showing improvement and are back in expansion territory, an indication of a pickup in economic activity. The German PMI is expected at 51.3 and the eurozone PMI at 52.3 points. In the US, the Federal Reserve remains hawkish with its message that higher rates are on the way. Fed member Bostic reiterated this stance, saying that the terminal rate would be between 5% and 5.25% and have to remain at that level well into 2024. The markets have priced in a terminal rate of 5.50%, but worries over sticky inflation have led to some calls for rates to rise as high as 6%. EUR/USD is testing support at 1.0655. Below, there is support at 1.0596 There is resistance at 1.0765 and 1.0894
by OANDA
5
EUR/USD Advances Towards 1.0700 After German Inflation Data The EUR/USD pair was boosted on Wednesday and advanced to fresh weekly highs following the release of higher-than-expected German inflation data. The pair's advance has also been underpinned by the rise in the German 10-year Bund yield, which reached the highest level in 12 years at 2.724%. At the time of writing, the EUR/USD pair is trading at the 1.0670 zone, recording a 0.94% daily gain, having printed a one-week high of 1.0691. Data released on Wednesday showed that the German annual rate of inflation, measured by the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), rose to 9.3% in February from 9.2% in January, surpassing the market's consensus of 9%. The euro has strengthened amid expectations the European Central Bank (ECB) will continue tightening its monetary policy and raising interest rates longer than previously estimated. Recent inflation reports from Spain, France, and Germany support that case. Furthermore, Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau said on Wednesday it is desirable reaching the terminal rate by September at the latest. Investors are betting on a 50 bps hike by the ECB in March, while the terminal deposit facility rate is now forecasted at 4% from 3.5% previously (currently at 2.5%). EURUSD Daily Chart From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD maintains a slightly bearish short-term bias, although indicators on the daily chart are improving, hinting at a steeper upwards correction. The pair is facing immediate resistance at the 20-day SMA at around 1.0690, and if broken, could pave the way to the next bullish target at the 1.0760 zone. On the other hand, the loss of the weekly lows at 1.0535 would worsen the short-term setup risking a retest of the 1.0500 psychological level and the 100-day SMA at 1.0473.
by Alex_Boltyan_FXAnalyst
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of February 24, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook: The Eurodollar continued a downward spiral this week, as shown on EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For the Week of Feb 17. The price action hit our Mean Sup 1.066 for several days, indicating its bearish mode. The leading downside target designation is Mean Sup 1.052 and the Inner Currency Dip of 1.046. Once this puppy hits our targets, we will see a revival to the upside aiming for the main target of the Mean Res 1.060.
by TradeSelecter
EURAUD: Expecting ECB to be more hawkish than RBA this weekWhere the ECB is being hawkish on rate hikes and has room for manoeuvre, the RBA is trying to be hawkish, but has less room due to low consumer sentiment / general backlash due to the increasing costs due to interest rates - it also seems as though inflation may have peaked, we'll find out soon enough if it's stabilising... In terms of price action, we look to have broken a descending dynamic trendline and we're retesting, I then expect a move up to 1.563 to test this resistance in the coming week.
Long
by Finchcliffe