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EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of December 16, 2022The euro-dollar rip through our Mean Res 1.0585 but could not punch to vital Key Res $1.0780. The newly created interim Mean Res 1.0680 is the catalyst to draw the currency to retest the Mean Res 1.0680 and hit the Key Res $1.0780 in the process. The prevailing down path points to the Mean Sup 1.0450 and mildly extended probabilities to Mean Sup 1.0330. However, once the current down sentiment occurs, a furious decline to the additional Mean Support levels may likely happen. Of course, the question is, “From which support level will this puppy break playing down movement position?
by TradeSelecter
EUR/USD moving around 1.0600, far from the weekly high The EUR/USD is trading sideways on Friday, managing to stay above 1.0600, despite the strength of the dollar and the decline in equity markets, still favored by the European Central Bank meeting on Thursday. It peaked at 1.0735, the highest since June and then pulled back to as low as 1.0590. It is up for the week, but off highs. The ECB raised interest rates by 50 basis points on Thursday, and President Christine Lagarde gave an outlook at the press conference suggesting at least three more 50 basis point hikes to come at the next meetings. Her comments pushed German government bond yields higher while US Treasury yields held steady, giving strong support to the euro. The common European currency was among the best performers on Thursday, in a day in which there was a sharp global decline in equity markets, amid fears of a recession. The dollar was strengthened by the risk aversion environment. This prevented the EUR/USD from going above 1.0700 again. The ECB's tone helped it remain above 1.0600, at a time when other currencies fell to multi-day lows versus the dollar. Technically, the EUR/USD maintains a bullish trend. The upside was capped at 1.0730 and showed signs of weakness after failing to hold above 1.0700. A consolidation above 1.0700 is needed for the euro to open the doors to more gains over the short term. Technical indicators are neutral, and mostly flat, with no clear bias. There are some signs of bullish exhaustion (particularly the retreat from the weekly high) that could lead to a bearish correction, especially if the pair clearly breaks below 1.0600. The next strong support is seen at 1.0500. More to the downside emerges 1.0440 that if broken could change the outlook to neutral.
by Alex_Boltyan_FXAnalyst
1
EURJPY long End of Day trend follower (EOD)Here is what the fundamentals are following the ECB rate decision today, words from ©Lloyds Bank European Central Bank (Dec): We're not pivoting The European Central Bank (ECB) raised interest rates today by 50bps, in line with expectations. It follows 75bp hikes in the last two meetings in September and October, and a 50bp rise in July. There was broad agreement (not unanimity) on the decision and it brings the deposit rate up to 2%. There were similar increases in the main refinancing rate and the marginal lending rate to 2.5% and 2.75%, respectively. Policy rates have been raised by a total of 250bp since July (Chart 1). Although the hiking pace was reduced today, the ECB warned that interest rates will “still have to rise significantly” and that they will be kept at “restrictive levels” to dampen demand and guard against second-round effects on inflation. President Christine Lagarde indicated that more 50bp rises could occur early next year (the next update is on 2 February). She said, “we’re not pivoting” and that the ECB is “in for a long game” and there is more ground to cover. Current inflation was described as “far too high” (Chart 4) and forecast to stay above target for what is seen as “too long”. The ECB’s new quarterly economic projections upgraded inflation for 2023 to 6.3% (from 5.5%) and for 2024 to 3.4% (from 2.3%). The first forecast for 2025 is 2.3%, still above the 2% target (Chart 2). The ECB envisages a “short and shallow” recession – while next year’s GDP growth was revised down to 0.5%, it remains above the consensus forecast (Chart 3). Detail on the start of quantitative tightening (QT) – the reversal of QE – was also provided today. The ECB said that from March it will no longer reinvest fully the proceeds from maturing assets held in its Asset Purchase Programme (APP) portfolio. From March until the end of Q2 next year, the average decline will be €15bn a month, meaning that about half of estimated redemptions wil be reinvested (Chart 7). This degree of detail could also be interpreted as hawkish, because it reinforces the impetus to reduce the ECB’s balance sheet (Chart 6). Overall, while today’s interest rate decision was expected, the messaging was nevertheless surprisingly hawkish. There seems to be increasing disquiet about persistent upside surprises to inflation and the extended period in which it is expected to remain above target, while the economic downturn is now perceived as potentially less severe than previously feared. The market reaction saw the euro rise above $1.07 for the first time since June, while the pound fell below €1.15. Markets now expect the ECB ro raise interest rates above 3% next year. Hann-Ju Ho Senior Economist That may be the fundamental reason and may be I am a little early in my trade idea as today's candle hasn't closed.I am assuming that we don't make a new higher high before the end of the NYC session.
Long
by Macrobriefing
ECB vs BoE: What's next for EUR/GBP?The European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) both raised interest rates by 50 basis points at their final meetings of the year. The Eurozone's policy rate was hiked to 2.5%, the highest in fourteen years, and the UK's to 3.5%, the highest since late 2008. In contrast to the relatively dovish BoE meeting, the ECB meeting was substantially more hawkish than the market had anticipated, prompting the EUR/GBP cross to surge. In a divided vote, the BoE decided to raise rates by 50bps, with one member (Mann) pressing for 75bps and two members (Tenreyro and Dhingra) preferring to maintain current rates. According to the BoE statement, more increases in the Bank Rate may be necessary due to ongoing inflationary pressures fueled by a tight labour market. In the first quarter of 2023, UK CPI inflation is expected to fall as household spending and property market indicators weaken. Even if the ECB lowered its speed of rate rises from 75bps to 50bps, it made it clear that interest rates will still have to climb consistently and by a steady pace to reach restrictive levels to get inflation back to 2% quickly. The ECB also indicated that quantitative tightening will begin in March 2023. The ECB will not reinvest all expiring securities' principal payments in the Asset Purchase Programme (APP), meaning its asset portfolio of eurozone bonds will fall at an average pace of €15 billion per month until Q2 2023, with the subsequent rate established over time. During the press conference, ECB President Lagarde reiterated that the ECB will rise with tenacity and that 50bps may be the right rate hike for the next meeting and the two after that. She also hinted that once the peak is achieved, "it won't be enough to hit and withdraw," and that high interest rates will be in place for a longer period of time. Historically, the interest-rate gap between the Euro Area and the UK has been one of the key driver behind the EUR/GBP exchange rate. Market reactions to the BoE and ECB meetings: Yields differential matter Before today's meeting, the market was highly dovish on the ECB, pricing in a peak of 2.8% next year, while it had already built in hawkish expectations on the BoE, pricing in a peak of 4.6% in the Bank Rate in August 2023. German bond yields soared by 15 basis points after the ECB rate announcement and during Lagarde's press conference, but UK gilt yields stayed nearly unchanged from pre-BoE meeting levels. The negative yield spread between German and UK sovereign bonds shrank throughout the curve today as investors repriced ECB rise expectations. The 2-year German-UK yield gap narrowed to -1% and the 10-year one to -1.2%.  In the coming weeks/days, market expectations for the ECB rate may continue to rise as ECB hawks are likely to reiterate their aggressive stance. The Bank of England's market pricing may stay broadly stable, given it has already incorporated heightened expectations ahead to the meeting. This may indicate that the negative yield disparity between German and British bonds will continue to narrow, exerting upward pressure on the euro-pound exchange rate. A further 30 basis point reduction in the negative yield spread between 2-year German bonds and UK gilts, lowering it from -1% to -0.70%, might drive EUR/GBP to 0.89 or near to the psychologically important level of 0.90.
by Capitalcom
Hawkish ECB but Euro still fallsThe ECB presented a strong hawkish front; - hiking rates by 50bps and commenting during the press conference that - MORE hikes were coming, - 50bps for a period of time, not pivoting, - committed for the long term to bring inflation down to 2% This saw the EURUSD climb strongly from 1.0620 up to 1.0735 HOWEVER , right after the press conference ended, the dollar bulls took control, driving the EURUSD back down. Back down toward the key support level of 1.06. Where could the EURUSD head from here? Stay tuned! This would be a HAWK and BULL battle worth watching.
by JinDao_Tai
4
European Central Bank Preview – Time to PivotDespite facing the unknown external shock of a war, the Eurozone economy’s growth has been resilient in the first three quarters of the year. Eurozone Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rose by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) in Q3, easing from a 0.8% increase in Q2 2022 aided by the rise in government spending alongside an improvement in inflation adjusted trade surplus . However, this is likely to change in Q4 2022 and Q1 2023 as COVID reopening demand fades. Eurozone recession remains a key risk until Q1 2023 Europe is set to embark on a harsh winter, and with savings rates extending the decline from a 1.7% drop in Q2, consumer spending is likely to come under pressure. The 1.8% month on month falls in euro area retail sales in October is consistent with the notion that real income squeeze is now catching up the with consumers. Services spending rose only 1.5% in Q3 compared to the 3.1% jump in Q2 2022 . The labour market has remained fairly resilient as Eurozone unemployment hit a new low of 6.5% in October, pushed down by falling unemployment in Southern Europe, the Netherlands, Finland and Austria. However, unemployment is likely to rise as the economic slowdown and tightening financial conditions impact hiring. That being said, fiscal policy could come to the rescue as major Eurozone governments have earmarked €573Bn into the economy to shield the private sector from the upcoming fallout in economic activity. Inflation in the Eurozone declined more than expected from 10.6% in October to 10% in November. Yet it’s hard to say for certain that the inflation rate has passed its peak as it is largely dependent on the fluctuations in energy prices. Core inflation remained at 5% in November and is likely to remain close to 5% through Q1 2023 . Companies continue to transfer higher input costs to consumers and in spite of an approaching recession, we expect this process of cost-push inflation to extend into 2023, keeping price pressures higher for longer. European Central Bank (ECB) split between the doves and hawks Ms Isabel Schnabel (a member of the executive board of the ECB) warned in November that loose fiscal policy risks adding to underlying inflation pressures by boosting consumption and reducing the incentive for consumers and businesses to save energy. We would argue that while the volume of relief packages is large, they are insufficient to provide complete relief for all consumers and companies. Ms Schnabel also noted that, “that the room for slowing down the pace of interest rate adjustments remains limited, even as we are approaching estimates of the ‘neutral rate’”. This hawkish sentiment was echoed by Dutch central bank head Klaas Knot in his statement that risks are tilted towards the ECB doing too little to combat rising inflation, noting that an economic slowdown, or perhaps even a recession, is needed to bring inflation under control. President Lagarde stressed that she would be surprised if inflation has already peaked, as there is too much uncertainty regarding the pass-through of high energy costs at the wholesale level into the retail level. She added that the ECB may have to go into restrictive territory with key rates. On the other hand, the head of the French central bank, Villeroy, who has often anticipated the actual ECB decisions in his statements, spoke out in favour of 50 basis points. Even hawks such as Bundesbank President Nagel and Estonian Mueller seem to be able to come to terms with a hike of just 50 basis points. Further clarity on Quantitative Tightening (QT) The ECB is likely to meet consensus expectations this week of narrowing the pace of rate hikes to 50Bps on 15 December, following two 75Bps rate hikes in September and October. This decision will lift its deposit and refinancing rates to 2% and 2.5% respectively. Neither peaking inflation nor a recession will give the ECB a reason to hold back from raising rates in Q1 2023, but both suggest that risks are tilted towards a slower pace of tightening. The outlook for the balance sheet, and more specifically QT, will be another key theme at this week’s meeting. It will be interesting to see whether the ECB will be pressed to sell bonds outright or stick with roll-off. We would expect the central bank to begin with an Asset Purchase Program (APP) roll-off equivalent to a monthly reduction of €25Bn in the balance sheet on average. Currently the ECB is still using Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) reinvestments to compress spreads and the Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI) remains at its disposal if conditions deteriorate further. Both these tools limit how far the ECB can go with QT. Sources: 1Eurostat as of 30 November 2022 2National Accounts as of 30 November 2022 3Bruegel as of 31 October 2022 4Bloomberg as of 30 November 2022
FRED:ECBASSETSW
by aneekaguptaWTE
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of December 9, 2022Technical Analysis and Outlook: The euro dollar hit our target of the Mean Res 1.0585 twice this week. Advancement to the Key Res 1.0780 is getting more realistic and inevitable. The upcoming prevailing down path points to the new Mean Sup 1.0450 and extended Mean Sup 1.0330. However, once the current down sentiment occurs, a furious decline to the additional Mean Support levels may likely happen. Of course, the question is always “Which way will this puppy break from the current position?”
by TradeSelecter
EUR/USD Remains Capped By 1.0600, Fed, ECB Decisions Eyed The EUR/USD pair consolidates above the 1.0500 area on Friday, still unable to advance beyond the 1.0600 mark, with the pair edging lower after the release of U.S. Producer Price Index data.   At the time of writing, the EUR/USD pair is trading at the 1.0540 area, posting a 0.16% daily loss, having retreated from a high of 1.0588 earlier in the session. The pair is virtually unchanged in the week, trading just a few pips above last Friday’s closing price, following two consecutive weekly gains.   The 10-year U.S. bond yield bounced off a daily low of 3.45% and rose above 3.50%, fueling the greenback’s recovery. The DXY index is currently trading around 104.90, having recovered from a low of 104.48.   Data from the U.S. showed producer prices grew at a 7.4% annual rate in November, matching the market’s expectations and slower than the 8.1% rate reported in October. The core PPI rose by 6.2% YoY, above the expectations of 6% but below the 6.7% rate printed in October.   On Tuesday, U.S. Consumer Price Index data could offer a better picture of the inflation situation and finish shaping the investors' expectations about Fed’s decision, which will be announced on Wednesday. According to the WIRP tool, a 50 bps rate hike is fully priced in, and investors are only betting around 10% odds of a larger 75 bps move. In addition, the swaps market is pricing in a peak policy rate of 5.0%.   The European Central Bank will announce its decision on Thursday, and expectations also point to a 50 bps increase in its main rates, although Lagarde & Co. could "surprise" with a 75 bps move. From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD pair retains the short-term bullish bias despite indicators on the daily chart losing some traction. The RSI remains in positive territory with a slightly negative slope, while the MACD stands right above its midline.   On the upside, the immediate resistance level is given by the 1.0600, where the psychological level is reinforced by a descending trend line drawn from May 2021 high, followed by the 1.0700 area. On the other hand, the following support levels are seen at the 20- and 200-day SMAs at 1.0410 and 1.0350.
by Alex_Boltyan_FXAnalyst
As we approach the last Fed/ECB meetings of the year.Last week, while the Federal Reserve changed its rhetoric from ‘hiking to fight inflation at all cost’ to ‘slow the pace of rate hike’, seismic waves rolled over the markets. As we approach the last central bank meetings of the year, the ECB meets on (15th Dec), Fed on the (14th Dec). A temperature check on the expected path of rates for the 2 major central banks would give us a good sense to position ourselves. The Fed After Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech last Wednesday at the Brookings Institution in Washington, one line in particular (“The time for moderating the pace of rate increases may come as soon as the December meeting.”) shifted the market’s perspective. With the USD weakening further and terminal rates repricing slower and lower than expected, markets seem to have priced in a 50-basis point hike by the Fed in its December meeting. A slowdown from the back-to-back 75 basis point hikes we have come accustomed to. As noted in the chart above the EURUSD pair has generally moved alongside the dollar direction, should the dollar continue its tumble downwards, the EURUSD is likely to trade higher. The ECB After raising rates by 75 basis points in the last meeting to 1.5%, the ECB still faces mounting inflation. Market expectations still swing between a 50 to 75 bps hike for the upcoming ECB meeting as the Eurozone still struggles with high inflation. The ECB may also have more headroom to maneuver as current rates remain below the expected terminal rate and the 200 basis points hike still pales in comparison to the Fed’s 375 basis points move. However, we do have to caveat that intricacies matter here, for example, the inflationary effects in the US are largely driven by the demand side, while in the Eurozone are driven by supply-side effects. Regardless, the next few days will remain key for any policymaker comments to guide the markets as the meeting date nears. Policy timing and direction uncertainty put the EURUSD pair on our watchlist. The last time the 2 central banking policy timelines diverged, we called it out on one of our previous ideas. You can check out here . Additionally, we spot an ascending triangle pattern on the chart which generally signifies a bullish continuation. With the previous ascending triangle breaking out in a textbook manner, we will watch if the current setup trades the same. Prices have also broken a previous support-turn-resistance level, which could prove as further conviction of the upward move. With a clear technical setup and the potential for the ECB to surprise hikes to the upside, we lean bullish on the EURUSD pair. We set our stop at the 1.0440 level, and take profit level at 1.0900, with each 0.00005 increment per EUR in the EURUSD futures contract equal to 6.25$. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description. Sources: www.cmegroup.com www.ecb.europa.eu www.federalreserve.gov
CME:6EZ2022Long
by inspirante
9
Euro pauses after sharp gains, NFP loomsEUR/USD is unchanged on Friday, trading at 1.0524. The week wraps up with one of most important releases on the calendar, US nonfarm payrolls. The robust labour market is showing signs of cooling down, as rising interest rates have slowed economic activity. Nonfarm payrolls have been falling and the trend is expected to continue, with a consensus of 200,000 for November, down from 261,000 a month earlier. With the Fed holding its policy meeting on December 14th, the NFP report will be closely watched by policy makers, who have relied on a strong job market to press ahead with an aggressive rate cycle. The US dollar has been in retreat since Jerome Powell's speech on Wednesday. The speech was balanced, with Powell reiterating that inflation remained too high and rates would continue to rise higher. Still, the markets focussed on the fact that Powell strongly hinted the Fed would ease rates at the December meeting with a 50-bp hike, and the optimism sent equities higher and the dollar lower. The euro has made the most of the dollar's weakness, and EUR/USD posted its best month since 2012, with gains in November of 5.3%. Still, the euro has been on a prolonged decline and started 2022 close to 1.14. The outlook for the euro is weak, as the European Commission expects the eurozone economy to decline in Q4 2022 and Q1 2023. The driver of the expected decline is the huge jump in energy prices caused by the war in Ukraine. The eurozone has been hit hard by double-digit inflation, and the ECB will have to continue raising rates, despite weak economic conditions, until it is convinced that inflation has peaked. EUR/USD faces resistance at 1.0583, followed by a monthly line at 1.0683 There is support at 1.0490 and 1.03537
by OANDA
EUR/USD edges higher as CPI fallsIt continues to be a quiet week for the euro. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0363. The ECB's number one priority has been bringing down inflation, which has hit double-digits. ECB policy makers are no doubt pleased that November CPI fell sharply to 10.0%, down from 10.6% a month earlier. This beat the consensus of 10.4%, and the euro has responded with slight gains. The drop in eurozone inflation was the first since June 2021, and investors will be hoping that this indicates that inflation is finally peaking. On Tuesday, German CPI showed a similar trend, falling to 10.0%, down from 10.4% (10.3% est). Still, eurozone Core CPI remained unchanged at 5.0%, matching the forecast. One inflation report is not sufficient to indicate a trend, and with inflation still in double digits, nobody is declaring victory in the battle against inflation. Still, the drop in German and eurozone inflation increases the likelihood of a 50 basis-point increase at the December 12th meeting, following two straight hikes of 75 basis points. With market direction very much connected to US interest rate movement, a speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell later today could be a market-mover. Powell is expected to discuss inflation and the labour market, and his remarks could echo the hawkish stance that Fed members have been signalling to the markets over the past several weeks. The market pricing for the December meeting is 65% for a 50-bp move and 35% for a 75-bp hike, which means that the markets aren't all on the Fed easing rates. Even if the Fed does slow to 50 bp in December, it will still be a record year of tightening, at 425 basis points. EUR/USD is testing resistance at 1.0359. Above, there is resistance at 1.0490 There is support at 1.0264 and 1.0131
by OANDA
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of November 25, 2022Technical Analysis and Outlook: Eurodollar declined to our Mean Sup 1.0285 as specified on the EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For November 18 chart followed by a rebound to strategic completed and retested Inner Currency Rally 1.0380. The current prevailing down path is pointing to the new Mean Sup 1.0237. The current down sentiment is prone to further declines: Mean Sup 1.014, 1.000, and 0.975. The down-trend projects for the Next Outer Currency Dip of 0.937 is being delayed.
by TradeSelecter
Euro steady as German data improvesUS markets are open for limited hours today, and investors are focussed on the World Cup and Black Friday rather than the US dollar. EUR/USD is trading quietly at 1.0392, down 0.18%. German data has not been spectacular this week, but nonetheless is moving in the right direction, as the German economy is in decent shape. Germany's GDP for Q3 was revised upwards to 0.4% QoQ, up from 0.3% and ahead of the consensus of -0.2%. This follows a 0.1% gain in GDP in Q1 and is all the more impressive, considering the headwinds on the global scene, in particular the war in Ukraine. Germany has made a mammoth effort to stockpile energy supplies and end its dependence on Russia, which should mean that an energy crisis can be avoided this winter. German Consumer confidence remains weak but improved slightly for a second straight month. The November reading rose to -40.2, up from -41.9, although shy of the consensus of -39.6. Business confidence also edged higher earlier this week, as did Business Expectations. The ECB minutes, released on Thursday, indicated that ECB members remained concerned about inflation becoming entrenched. Members were clear about the need to raise rates in order to bring inflation back down to the 2% target, and most members supported the 75-bp hike at the October meeting, with a few voting for a 50-bp move. The markets have priced in a 50-bp increase at the December 15th meeting, after ECB policymakers hit the airwaves and urged that the ECB slow down the pace of rate hikes. Still, with inflation at a crippling 10.6%, there's little doubt that the ECB will have to continue raising rates, and the markets expect the deposit rate, currently at 1.5%, to hit 3.0% in 2023. 1.0359 and 1.0238 are providing support There is resistance at 1.0447 and 1.0568
by OANDA
€ - Where To Next?€ - Where To Next? $EUR - BUY THE DIP?! As from my previous posts via trading view can be seen I was very bullish medium term hitting the target areas are currently at. However, lets take a bird eyes view of EUR! EUR currently at key resistance on Monthly - 1.03. Price may decline back towards support areas of 1.02/1.01 areas before heading higher IF we get out of this downwards channel drawn. Now let's not forget those that are into candle stick formation - you will start to enjoy looking at the major FX charts at higher TF. Above 8 EMA - 1.07 - 1.11 can easily be achieved. Fundamentally: Fundamentally strong about the EUR apart from lower print of CPI and the market had got very excited. Shorter term I'd be looking for pull back towards support areas stated above. Medium term if Fed pivot dovish less rate hikes as high, expect euro to escalate higher. The energy bet has been reversed, take a look at Nat Gas price is very lower and the capacity of energy reserved is at a level which there is nothing to be feared about, at this moment of time. Don't forget now that inflation spreads widen EUR - USD - it leaves a potential more hawkish ECB relative to Fed which again was stated in previous chart posted. Now of course the Fed could pivot and turn hawkish but I am doubtful on that and we could go into other factors such as seasonality and positioning. In my opinion trade what you see, not what you think and don't forget to get a greater R/R. All the best, Trade Journal
by Trade_Journal
EURCHF: Long term Outlook Targets 1.04000 Region!EURCHF made a supply zone & resistance break on weekly timeframe! Looking for additional conformation, the monthly candle also closed above the supply zone. The ideal target remains the upcoming supply zone and stop out point should be below the swing low. All the technical details available on the main chart. Shall you wish to trade this opportunity you can do so by making sure the RR is at least 1:1. Trade Safely & Cautiously
Long
by FX618Analysis
EUR/USD Clings To 1.0300 On ECB Mixed Rhetoric, FOMC Minutes EyeThe EUR/USD pair struggled to make a decisive move on Tuesday and ended the day slightly above the 1.0300 mark as a cautious market mood and mixed signals from ECB members kept the euro’s upside limited. At the time of writing, the EUR/USD pair is trading at the 1.0303 zone, 0.6% above its opening price. The euro managed to advance to a daily high of 1.0308 during the New York session. On Monday, Philip Lane, ECB Executive Board member, argued in favor of a smaller interest hike in the following December meeting of the Governing Council, claiming “One platform for considering a very large hike, such as 75 basis points, is no longer there.” However, he didn’t signal a stop of the hiking cycle but rather a contraction at a slower pace and at the appropriate time. On the other hand, Austria’s central bank governor Robert Holzmann claimed that there is no evidence of price pressures easing and that inflation expectations need to be well anchored. In that sense, he called for another big rate rise in December in order to send a strong message and to prove the bank’s determination to fight inflation. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar, measured by the DXY index, snapped a three-day winning strike and fell back to the 107.15 area. On Wednesday, the FOMC’s latest meeting minutes will be released, which could shed some light on whether or not the Federal Reserve braces for a policy pivot in December. From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD short-term bias remains tilted to the upside as indicators remain in positive ground on the daily chart while the price consolidates at the top of its recent range and above the 20- and 100-day SMAs. On the upside, the immediate resistance level is seen at the weekly highs at around 1.0330, followed by the 200-day SMA at 1.0400. A break above the latter could improve the euro’s short-term perspective and pave the way to the 1.0500 area. On the other hand, the next support level could be faced at the 1.0220-00 area, followed by the November 11 low of 1.0163 and the 20-day SMA, currently at 1.0110.
by Alex_Boltyan_FXAnalyst
EURGBP BearishAbsent the lack of key fundamental surprises I am slowly leaning to a bearish stance on this pair. The economic situations between the two is very similar. Both are also experiencing a much milder winter than was previously expected which seems to be helping both Germany and the U.K. economically. In my opinion, the BoE is being more dovish than the ECB regarding inflation expectations and terminal interest rate levels. Perhaps in a bid to achieve price stability. Divergence between the recent upward movement and the indicators shown suggests this current bullish formation is weak and may soon be exhausted. I believe the pair will likely see a move to the downside. If the current ascending channel (white) fails, I’ll be expecting to see 0.8700, 0.8648 and 0.8600. POI for short : 0.8860 - 0.8900
Short
by jamesfrench73
2
ERUGBP: Euro stronger?!EURGBP Intraday - We look to Buy at 0.8685 (stop at 0.8645) There is no sign that this bullish momentum is faltering but the pair has stalled close to a previous swing high of 0.8828. A lower correction is expected. With the Ichimoku cloud support below we expect dips to be limited. We therefore, prefer to fade into the dip with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back higher. Our profit targets will be 0.8800 and 0.8930 Resistance: 0.8815 / 0.8930 / 0.9070 Support: 0.8705 / 0.8565 / 0.8340 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
Long
by VantageMarkets
1
$USDJPY: Weekly trend signal points to a steady advance$USDJPY has a new trend continuation signal here, weekly and daily trends are bullish, as well as monthly, quarterly and even yearly. Energy and bonds suggest we will see rising yields for longer, FX looks like the dollar has ample reasons to remain bid and the BOJ and ECB are the weakest central banks here, relatively vs the Fed's policy stance, as well as from a macro standpoint as energy importers facing an energy crunch, which is bound to be negative variable as well. I'm long $UUP calls and short $NZDUSD, adding some $USDJPY exposure here to remain exposed to the dollar trend. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
9