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Euro steady as German data improvesUS markets are open for limited hours today, and investors are focussed on the World Cup and Black Friday rather than the US dollar. EUR/USD is trading quietly at 1.0392, down 0.18%. German data has not been spectacular this week, but nonetheless is moving in the right direction, as the German economy is in decent shape. Germany's GDP for Q3 was revised upwards to 0.4% QoQ, up from 0.3% and ahead of the consensus of -0.2%. This follows a 0.1% gain in GDP in Q1 and is all the more impressive, considering the headwinds on the global scene, in particular the war in Ukraine. Germany has made a mammoth effort to stockpile energy supplies and end its dependence on Russia, which should mean that an energy crisis can be avoided this winter. German Consumer confidence remains weak but improved slightly for a second straight month. The November reading rose to -40.2, up from -41.9, although shy of the consensus of -39.6. Business confidence also edged higher earlier this week, as did Business Expectations. The ECB minutes, released on Thursday, indicated that ECB members remained concerned about inflation becoming entrenched. Members were clear about the need to raise rates in order to bring inflation back down to the 2% target, and most members supported the 75-bp hike at the October meeting, with a few voting for a 50-bp move. The markets have priced in a 50-bp increase at the December 15th meeting, after ECB policymakers hit the airwaves and urged that the ECB slow down the pace of rate hikes. Still, with inflation at a crippling 10.6%, there's little doubt that the ECB will have to continue raising rates, and the markets expect the deposit rate, currently at 1.5%, to hit 3.0% in 2023. 1.0359 and 1.0238 are providing support There is resistance at 1.0447 and 1.0568
by OANDA
€ - Where To Next?€ - Where To Next? $EUR - BUY THE DIP?! As from my previous posts via trading view can be seen I was very bullish medium term hitting the target areas are currently at. However, lets take a bird eyes view of EUR! EUR currently at key resistance on Monthly - 1.03. Price may decline back towards support areas of 1.02/1.01 areas before heading higher IF we get out of this downwards channel drawn. Now let's not forget those that are into candle stick formation - you will start to enjoy looking at the major FX charts at higher TF. Above 8 EMA - 1.07 - 1.11 can easily be achieved. Fundamentally: Fundamentally strong about the EUR apart from lower print of CPI and the market had got very excited. Shorter term I'd be looking for pull back towards support areas stated above. Medium term if Fed pivot dovish less rate hikes as high, expect euro to escalate higher. The energy bet has been reversed, take a look at Nat Gas price is very lower and the capacity of energy reserved is at a level which there is nothing to be feared about, at this moment of time. Don't forget now that inflation spreads widen EUR - USD - it leaves a potential more hawkish ECB relative to Fed which again was stated in previous chart posted. Now of course the Fed could pivot and turn hawkish but I am doubtful on that and we could go into other factors such as seasonality and positioning. In my opinion trade what you see, not what you think and don't forget to get a greater R/R. All the best, Trade Journal
by Trade_Journal
EURCHF: Long term Outlook Targets 1.04000 Region!EURCHF made a supply zone & resistance break on weekly timeframe! Looking for additional conformation, the monthly candle also closed above the supply zone. The ideal target remains the upcoming supply zone and stop out point should be below the swing low. All the technical details available on the main chart. Shall you wish to trade this opportunity you can do so by making sure the RR is at least 1:1. Trade Safely & Cautiously
Long
by FX618Analysis
EUR/USD Clings To 1.0300 On ECB Mixed Rhetoric, FOMC Minutes EyeThe EUR/USD pair struggled to make a decisive move on Tuesday and ended the day slightly above the 1.0300 mark as a cautious market mood and mixed signals from ECB members kept the euro’s upside limited. At the time of writing, the EUR/USD pair is trading at the 1.0303 zone, 0.6% above its opening price. The euro managed to advance to a daily high of 1.0308 during the New York session. On Monday, Philip Lane, ECB Executive Board member, argued in favor of a smaller interest hike in the following December meeting of the Governing Council, claiming “One platform for considering a very large hike, such as 75 basis points, is no longer there.” However, he didn’t signal a stop of the hiking cycle but rather a contraction at a slower pace and at the appropriate time. On the other hand, Austria’s central bank governor Robert Holzmann claimed that there is no evidence of price pressures easing and that inflation expectations need to be well anchored. In that sense, he called for another big rate rise in December in order to send a strong message and to prove the bank’s determination to fight inflation. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar, measured by the DXY index, snapped a three-day winning strike and fell back to the 107.15 area. On Wednesday, the FOMC’s latest meeting minutes will be released, which could shed some light on whether or not the Federal Reserve braces for a policy pivot in December. From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD short-term bias remains tilted to the upside as indicators remain in positive ground on the daily chart while the price consolidates at the top of its recent range and above the 20- and 100-day SMAs. On the upside, the immediate resistance level is seen at the weekly highs at around 1.0330, followed by the 200-day SMA at 1.0400. A break above the latter could improve the euro’s short-term perspective and pave the way to the 1.0500 area. On the other hand, the next support level could be faced at the 1.0220-00 area, followed by the November 11 low of 1.0163 and the 20-day SMA, currently at 1.0110.
by Alex_Boltyan_FXAnalyst
EURGBP BearishAbsent the lack of key fundamental surprises I am slowly leaning to a bearish stance on this pair. The economic situations between the two is very similar. Both are also experiencing a much milder winter than was previously expected which seems to be helping both Germany and the U.K. economically. In my opinion, the BoE is being more dovish than the ECB regarding inflation expectations and terminal interest rate levels. Perhaps in a bid to achieve price stability. Divergence between the recent upward movement and the indicators shown suggests this current bullish formation is weak and may soon be exhausted. I believe the pair will likely see a move to the downside. If the current ascending channel (white) fails, I’ll be expecting to see 0.8700, 0.8648 and 0.8600. POI for short : 0.8860 - 0.8900
Short
by jamesfrench73
2
ERUGBP: Euro stronger?!EURGBP Intraday - We look to Buy at 0.8685 (stop at 0.8645) There is no sign that this bullish momentum is faltering but the pair has stalled close to a previous swing high of 0.8828. A lower correction is expected. With the Ichimoku cloud support below we expect dips to be limited. We therefore, prefer to fade into the dip with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back higher. Our profit targets will be 0.8800 and 0.8930 Resistance: 0.8815 / 0.8930 / 0.9070 Support: 0.8705 / 0.8565 / 0.8340 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
Long
by VantageMarkets
1
$USDJPY: Weekly trend signal points to a steady advance$USDJPY has a new trend continuation signal here, weekly and daily trends are bullish, as well as monthly, quarterly and even yearly. Energy and bonds suggest we will see rising yields for longer, FX looks like the dollar has ample reasons to remain bid and the BOJ and ECB are the weakest central banks here, relatively vs the Fed's policy stance, as well as from a macro standpoint as energy importers facing an energy crunch, which is bound to be negative variable as well. I'm long $UUP calls and short $NZDUSD, adding some $USDJPY exposure here to remain exposed to the dollar trend. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
9
Is it time to buy the $EUR & Why?Is it time to buy the $EUR & Why? As we head closer to ECB - If they are Hawkish and expected to raise rates even further, expect EUR to turn further bullish. We are at a key resistance area, now remember it isn't just ECB we focus on when it comes to EUR. Take into consideration the FOMC - Source - WSJ: Federal Reserve officials are barrelling toward another interest-rate rise of 0.75 percentage point at their meeting Nov. 1-2 and are likely to debate then whether and how to signal plans to approve a smaller increase in December. Now, yes we understand the further they hike the stronger DXY and that leads to the majors declining. However, we may have currency war at our hands we have had BOJ - intervene, even though they don't 'state' it, we've had various other countries concerned when it comes to FOMC further hikes but as they MAY slow down 75 basis points to 25 perhaps, this is easing the pressure on DXY leading the other currencies at very key areas! If we get hawkish ECB combined with this, expect euro to go back to previous levels of: 1.0500 - 1.03600. Technically: If we stay above these levels and go above 1.0000 handle over I do expect 1.03 to come into play. However, if we drift below 0.98500- 0.97500 then we back within range. Lastly, don't forget to trade your own trade plan! All the best, Trade Journal
by Trade_Journal
1
Euro backtracks after strong rallyEUR/USD has reversed course today and is in negative territory. In the North American session, the euro is trading at 1.0043, down 0.30%. The US dollar has rebounded after a 3-day slide against the major currencies. The dollar downswing started on Friday after a lukewarm employment report raised expectations that the Fed will deliver a "modest" 50-basis point, rather than a 75 bp move at the December meeting. This was followed by a short covering move on Monday which sent the dollar sharply lower, as risk appetite jumped ahead of the US midterms and Thursday's inflation report. The euro made the most of the dollar's weakness, rising 250 points in an impressive 3-day rally. The US dollar has rebounded against the majors today, including the euro. With the Federal Reserve remaining aggressive, even a 0.50% should be enough to give the dollar a boost, as rate differentials continue to widen. Inflation is running at a double-digit clip in the eurozone, but it's doubtful that the ECB will keep pace with the Fed, as the eurozone economy remains weak and higher rates are likely to tip the economy into a recession. The markets are keeping an eye on the US midterm elections, which are tighter than expected, as the Democrats are fighting to retain control of both the House and the Senate. Investors are focussing on Thursday's October US inflation report, which will be a key factor in Fed rate policy. Inflation is expected to have eased slightly, with headline inflation dropping to 8.0% (8.2% prior) and core inflation slowing to 6.5% (6.6%).  A drop in the October reading will raise expectations for the Fed to raise rates by 0.50% at the December meeting. EUR/USD faces resistance at 1.0134 and 1.0293 There is support at 1.0047 and 0.9888
by OANDA
7
EURGBP short IF cross MABoth zones UK and Euro had rise their interest rates in 75bp. Days ago Lagard said ECB will continue raising rates to fight the inflation, and BOE are warning about a long recession, and the interest rates hikes in 30Y In this chart we can watch the price touching the resistance and a overbought at BB and RSI, changing the direction such as MACD that had already crossed the signal line. We can wait for the confirmation of short position after the candles cross the MA, and open our position against Eur if it's a strong short candle
Short
by AFCapital21
Euro stems nasty slide, NFP loomsEUR/USD has rebounded and is in positive territory. In the European session, the euro is trading at 0.9794, up 0.45%. The upswing has ended a 3-day slide, in which the euro fell as much as 270 points. The manufacturing sector in the eurozone continues to struggle. German and eurozone manufacturing PMIs are mired in contraction territory and German Factory Orders for September, published today, declined by a sharp 4.0%. A weak global economy has dampened manufacturing activity, and the war in Ukraine and the energy crisis in Western Europe will likely continue to take a toll on the eurozone economy. The grim economic outlook is a major headache for ECB policymakers, who must maneuver delicately between soaring inflation and a weak eurozone economy. The ECB joined the rate-hiking dance late and finds itself well behind the inflation curve, as headline inflation in the eurozone jumped to a staggering 10.7% in October, up from 9.9% in September. The ECB has little choice but to deliver an oversize rate hike in order to tackle double-digit inflation, and ECB President Lagarde has said that she would use "all the tools" available to bring inflation back to the ECB's 2% target. All eyes are on today's US nonfarm payroll report. The labour market has been resilient in the face of steep rate hikes, although we are seeing a jump in job cuts. The consensus for the October NFP stands at 200,000, lower than the September reading of 263,000. The release will be carefully watched by the Fed, as the strength of the labor market is an important factor in the December rate decision. The markets have priced in a 50/50 toss-up between a hike of 0.50% or 0.75%, which could translate into volatility for the US dollar in today's North American session. EUR/USD is putting pressure on resistance at 0.9818. Next, there is resistance at 0.9956 0.9669 and 0.9531 are providing support
by OANDA
EUR/USD approaching parity. Could a hawkish ECB push it higher?The ECB meets this week and is widely expected to increase rates by 75bps. With CPI at 10%, will the central bank indicate that it is willing to hike further going forward? EUR/USD broke above the top downward sloping trendline of the channel today that the pair has been in since mid-February. If the pair moves above parity, the first resistance level is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level from the highs of February 10th to the lows of September 28th, near 1.0284. Above there is strong horizontal resistance at 1.0349/1.0368 and then a confluence of resistance at the 200 Day Moving Average and the 50% retracement of the above-mentioned timeframe near 1.0515. However, watch the statement closely. If the ECB is more worried about a recession than inflation, the pair could be back at previous lows near 0.9536 in no time!
by FOREXcom
2
Tug of War Among Central BanksThere is a tug of war situation among the central banks to hike interest rates. What is the bad and the good that will come out from this? i. Last week of October, European Central Bank officials announced another massive 75 basis point hike, increasing interest rates at the fastest pace in the history of the euro currency. ii. This week, the Federal Reserve is expected to increase rates by 75 basis points for the fourth time in a row. iii. The Bank of England could join the club on Thursday. Content: . The Interest Rate race has just started, why? . The impact on different currencies . It may not be all bad news, why? With higher interest rates, it attracts investors to buy its currency, in this case the USD. Currency is always a pair, when USD strengthens, the other side weakens. When a currency gets weaker, it is very bad news for inflation because they will have to pay more on their imports. Therefore in order to counter inflation, one of the best measures is to hike rate Expect more volatility in the currencies market, meaning currencies will take its turn to move. And if you are a trader, you should welcome volatility. Because with volatility, there are opportunities. GBP Futures 0.0001 = $6.25 0.001 = $62.50 0.01 = $625 0.1 = $6,250 1.1000 to 1.2000 = $6,250 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME:6B1!Education
by konhow
76
EURUSD LONG: Trade Carefully As Sellers Might Ambush Anytime!With the markets pivoting in the FED's aggressive hiking cycle, there is a fear is the market that the DXY would take a temporary breathing room and consolidate further. But make no mistake! DXY is still in the uptrend as the US economy is showing resilience thus making FED less worried in their quest to tame the inflation by hiking interest rates. Even if the FED pivots by the end of year, the interest rate differentials between USD and other major currency is still going to be wide thus making USD more valuable. As said above, EURUSD is still on major sell trend, here according to technical picture there is a slight room for EURUSD to appreciate towards the 1.01250 area. Beyond this, we need further level break on technical level to assure that EURUSD would keep rising as it faces multiple stern resistance. Have a look at the main chart for all the technical aspects behind this trading idea. Trade Safe & Cautiously.
Long
by FX618Analysis
EURGBP: Pound weaker?EURGBP Intraday - We look to Buy at 0.8580 (stop at 0.8530) There is no sign that this bearish momentum is faltering but the pair has stalled close to a previous swing low of 0.8579. We are trading at oversold extremes. This is positive for short term sentiment and we look to set longs at good risk/reward levels for a further correction higher. Further upside is expected although we prefer to buy into dips close to the 0.8580 level. Our profit targets will be 0.8730 and 0.8815 Resistance: 0.8700 / 0.8815 / 0.8930 Support: 0.8565 / 0.8340 / 0.8200 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’) . Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
Long
by VantageMarkets
EUR/USD Loses Ground After ECB Rate Hike, U.S. GDP dataThe EUR/USD pair fell Thursday following the European Central Bank interest rate decision, which was followed by cautious comments from President Christine Lagarde during the press conference. At the same time, the greenback is gaining ground thanks to solid GDP readings. At the time of writing, the EUR/USD is trading at the 1.0000 area, 0.70% below its opening price, after being rejected from a high of 1.0093. The European Central Bank announced today its decision to hike rates by 75 basis points for the second time in a row. During the press conference, Christine Lagarde said economic activity in the euro area will likely have contracted "significantly" in the third quarter and will likely continue to do so for the rest of 2022 and 2023 due to higher prices and falling real wages. When asked about inflation and forward guidance, ECB President stated that "there is still ground to cover," but the future path and pace will be decided meeting by meeting and will remain data-dependent. Lagarde confirmed that higher rates are needed to reach their medium-term target, but she refrained from giving more insights into her estimations of the neutral rate. Meanwhile, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released its first estimates of the third-quarter Gross Domestic Product. Q3 GDP growth came in at 2.6%, above the 2.4% increase expected. Other data revealed that Durable Goods Orders increased by 0.4% in September, below the 0.6% expected. The focus will now shift to next week's Fed meeting when the broad market consensus expects another 75 bps hike. From a technical standpoint, the EUR/USD short-term bias looks neutral, according to indicators on the daily chart. The RSI has turned south but remains above its midline, while the MACD printed a lower green bar, indicating a dwindling buying interest. At the same time, the price remains capped by the 100-day SMA (1.0087) and moves to test the broken channel as support at the 0.9910 area. A break below could add pressure on the euro, with the following supports seen at 0.9830, 20-day SMA, and 0.9800. If the EUR/USD manages to overcome the 100-day SMA, the next resistances could be found at September's highs in the 1.0200 zone.
by Alex_Boltyan_FXAnalyst
EURUSD Retreats after Rebound FaltersThe EUR/USD encounters solid resistance near 1.0100. The pair's continuous jerk comes on the heels of the greenback's weak recovery, which tries to restore some equilibrium following the recent steep sell-off, as the prospect of the Fed slowing the pace of its tightening plans appears as the immediate threat to the buck's further gains. Investors are taking profits before of the important ECB rate rise decision and the US advance Q3 GDP release. Meanwhile, extra emphasis is expected to be focused on Chair Lagarde's next news conference. On Thursday, the dollar, as measured by the USD Index (DXY), recovers somewhat from prior lows near 109.50. The risk-associated assets saw a lull in their rapid upward momentum, which was amplified by growing rumors of a probable Fed pivot. This has caused the dollar to rise higher. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve's firmer commitment to maintain raising rates until inflation appears well under control, despite an anticipated slowdown in economic growth and some loss of momentum in the labor market, continues to support the index's underlying bullish tone.
Short
by TradeyMarkets
3