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EUR/USD calm as Lagarde says disinflation on the right trackThe euro is showing limited movement on Tuesday. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0806, down 0.07% on the day. Earlier, the euro fell as low as 1.0800, its lowest level since Aug. 2. The European Central Bank has been aggressive in its rate-cutting cycle and has trimmed 75 basis points this year. The key interest rate has been brought down to 3.25%, its lowest level since February 2023. There is room for further cuts, as the eurozone economy is struggling and inflation has dropped to 1.6%, comfortably below the ECB’s target of 2%. ECB members are sounding optimistic about deflation, which is necessary for the central bank to continue cutting rates. ECB Governing Council member Peter Kazimir said on Monday that he expects inflation to drop to the 2% target in 2025. Kazimir said he was “increasingly confident that the disinflation path is on a solid footing”. This optimistic view was echoed by ECB President Lagarde on Tuesday. Lagarde reiterated that she expected the inflation target to be reached in 2025 and that the inflation numbers were “relatively reassuring”. Still, Lagarde added a note of caution, saying that services inflation was at 3.9% and the inflation battle was not yet won. The Federal Reserve is expected to continue cutting rates in the final two meetings of the year, but by how much? The Fed showed its aggressive side last month when it started its rate-cutting cycle with a jumbo cut of 50 basis points. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said on Monday that the September rate decision was a “close call” and she expected further rate cuts in order to prevent the labor market from continuing to weaken. EUR/USD tested resistance at 1.0833 earlier. Above, there is resistance at 1.0854 1.0793 and 1.0772 are providing support
by OANDA
The euro lost its upward momentum due to recession fears Worries about a potential recession in the eurozone, coupled with the ECB's decision to implement further rate cuts, are negatively impacting the sentiment toward the euro. Spain's September CPI (YoY) dropped to 1.5%, marking the lowest since April 2021, while France's CPI (YoY) came in at 1.1%, falling short of the market consensus of 1.2%. Moreover, Germany's ZEW Current Conditions in October plummeted to -86.9, reaching the lowest since May 2020, intensifying concerns about the Eurozone economy. EURUSD briefly breached the descending channel’s upper bound but failed to hold the upward momentum, falling to 1.0810. If EURUSD maintains a downtrend within the channel, the price may fall further to 1.0670. Conversely, if EURUSD breaches the channel’s upper bound again and rises above EMA21, the price could advance toward 1.0940.
by inkicho_exness
EUR/USD lower, ECB’s Kazimir confident in ‘disinflation path’The euro has edged lower on Monday. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0838, down 0.24% on the day. The European Central Bank lowered its key interest rate last week by a 25 basis points to 3.25%, the first back-to-back rate cuts since December 2011. The rate cut was the third time the ECB has lowered rates this year, as it has been aggressive in its rate-cutting cycling, totaling 75 basis points. The rate statement from last week’s meeting noted that the “disinflationary process is well on track” and that the inflation outlook had improved due to “recent downside surprises” in economic activity. The September inflation report, released just before the rate announcement on Thursday, indicated that inflation dropped to 1.7% y/y, down from 1.8% in August. This was a milestone as it was the first time inflation has dropped below the ECB’s target of 2% since July 2021. The optimistic stance was reiterated by ECB Governing Council member Peter Kazimir, who said on Monday that he expects inflation to drop to the 2% target in 2025. Kazimir said he was “increasingly confident that the disinflation path is on a solid footing” which would allow the ECB to continue cutting interest rates. The ECB remains somewhat cautious, particularly over wage growth and services inflation which have been stubbornly high and are upside risks to the inflation outlook. Still, after three rate cuts this year it’s clear that the direction of the rate path is down and the markets expect the ECB to continue trimming rates right through to March 2025. EUR/USD has pushed below support at 1.0854 and is testing support at 1.0837. Below, there is support at 1.0808 1.0884 and 1.0900 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Oct 18, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: The Eurodollar experienced sustained bearish sentiment again during this week's trading session, with the prevailing selling pressure completing our Inner Currency Dip of 1.083. A transient rebound is in progress to the Mean Res 1.090. However, considering the current bearish price action, the probability of further declines to the support level of 1.079 and the next Inner Currency Dip of 1.075 remains substantial.
by TradeSelecter
EUR/USD dips after ECB lower ratesThe euro can’t find its footing and has tumbled 2.7% in October. EUR/USD has stabilized on Friday and is trading at 1.0835 in the European session, up 0.05%. On Thursday, the euro dropped as low as 1.0810, its lowest level since August 2. The European Central Bank didn’t surprise anybody with a quarter-point rate cut on Thursday, the first back-to-back rate cuts since December 2011. The markets had fully priced in the move and the euro responded with slight losses. ECB President Lagarde has discarded forward guidance and stressed that rate decisions will be on a meeting-by-meeting basis, but the markets smelled a rate cut, with low inflation and weak economic growth. The rate statement was optimistic, noting that the “disinflationary process is well on track” and that the inflation outlook had improved due to “recent downside surprises” in economic activity. The ECB has cut rates three times this year and is expected to remain aggressive. The markets expect are forecasting rate cuts of 25 basis points at each of the next three meetings. The eurozone inflation release, made just before rate announcement on Thursday, showed inflation falling to 1.7% y/y, down from the initial estimate of 1.8% and below the 2.2% gain in August. The decline in inflation was helped by a sharp drop in energy prices. Services inflation remains high but eased to 3.1% y/y, down from 2.9% in August. The inflation report reached a milestone, dropping below the ECB’s target of 2% for the first time since July 2021. EUR/USD is testing resistance at 1.0835. Above, there is resistance at 1.0866 1.0803 and 1.0776 are the next support levels
by OANDA
EURUSD Stays In Downtrend After ECB Cut RatesThe Euro is weak across the board after the ECB cut rates by 25 basis points yesterday, as expected. More importantly, Christine Lagarde noted that data suggests the economy in the Eurozone is weakening, which means there could be more rate cuts on the table in the future. However, this will depend on upcoming data, as noted by the ECB President. Looking at the wave counts, we are definitely seeing a bearish impulse. The only question is whether we will still see a fourth wave rally, or if higher ABC recovery will show up. In either case, there should be more weakness after the next bounce, which I will track closely for potential shorts. Strong resistance is definitely around 1.09 to 1.0950. Grega
Short
by ew-forecast
Eurozone CPI falls below 2%, and ECB cuts further by 25bp The Eurozone CPI significantly undershot market expectations, prompting the ECB to implement additional rate cuts. In Sep, Eurozone CPI stood at 1.7%, falling short of the projected 1.8% and decelerating by 0.5% from the previous month's 2.2%. This marks the first instance in 40 months that Eurozone CPI has dipped below 2% since Jun 2021. The ECB has implemented an additional 0.25% rate cut due to slowing economic growth and falling inflation. The ECB stated that the deflation process is proceeding smoothly and anticipates gradually easing labor cost pressures. ECB President Lagarde emphasized that future rate direction in December will be contingent on upcoming economic data. EURUSD is still in a downtrend, falling to 1.0830. The gap between both EMAs widened, and the price broke the 1.0830 threshold, sending out a bearish signal. If EURUSD continues its downtrend within the descending channel and breaks the support at 1.0780, the price may fall further to 1.0670. Conversely, if EURUSD breaches both EMAs and the channel’s upper bound, the price could gain upward momentum to 1.0940.
by inkicho_exness
Hours to Go: Will ECB Cut Rates? Hours to Go: Will ECB Cut Rates? The euro zone economy flashed modest signs of life earlier this week, with a series of indicators suggesting tepid but still growing activity for a region that has narrowly avoided recession for over a year. However, the numbers are possibly unlikely to deter the European Central Bank from moving forward with a rate cut on Friday, a decision that markets have nearly fully priced in as the countdown enters its final 24 hours. Ahead of the decision, the EUR/USD is trading at its lowest since August 2, breaking below its 20-, 50-, 100-, and 200-day exponential moving averages. The key question: will the ECB’s rate cut provide much-needed support to the euro, or will sellers attempt to erase the gains from the August 2nd rally?
by BlackBull_Markets
Euro is falling over economic downturn and the ECB’s rate cuts The market anticipates the ECB reducing rates further at its upcoming monetary policy meeting this week. This is due to the eurozone inflation rate dropping to 1.8%, which already meets the central bank's target. Moreover, mounting worries about an economic recession have amplified the demand for the ECB to persist with interest rate cuts. If the Eurozone industrial production for August and ZEW Economic Sentiment for October, which will be announced today, fall below the previous month's figures and market consensus, the euro may weaken further against the dollar. EURUSD sustained its downtrend and fell to 1.0900. After EMA21 death-crossed EMA78, the gap consistently widens, sending out a bearish signal. If EURUSD stays below EMA21 and breaks 1.0870, the price may fall further to 1.0780. Conversely, if EURUSD breaches EMA21 and holds above 1.1000, where EMA78 coincides, the price could gain upward momentum to 1.1050.
by inkicho_exness
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Oct 11, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: The Eurodollar experienced sustained bearish sentiment during this week's trading session, reaching our reignited Inner Currency Dip of 1.090. The prevailing selling pressure towards the support level of 1.079 is temporarily halted. A transient rebound is anticipated due to the significance of completing the Inner Currency Dip. However, considering the current bearish price action, the probability of further declines to the support level of 1.079 remains substantial.
by TradeSelecter
Is a New ECB Rate Cut Just Days Away? European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde signaled that weaker-than-expected inflation will be on the agenda at the central bank’s October meeting next week. This has fueled speculation that policymakers could move to cut rates again. For the exact date and time of these major economic events, import the BlackBull Markets Economic Calendar to receive alerts directly in your email inbox. Germany’s sluggish growth has added to the ECB’s challenges. While other parts of the eurozone are showing signs of recovery, Berlin issued a stark warning this week, forecasting its economy will contract for a second consecutive year—a major drag on the region’s broader outlook. Technical signals also potentially point to downside risks. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approaching oversold territory, and a break below the 1.0900 level could see traders targeting the 200-day moving average near 1.08710
by BlackBull_Markets
EURUSD weakens due to ECB's dovish stance The Eurozone Retail Trade (Aug) increased by 0.2%(MoM), reaching a five-month high in line with expectations. However, the annual figures fell below expectations, indicating a general decline in consumer spending. In contrast, German factory orders experienced a significant 5.8%(MoM) decrease (previously 3.9%, consensus -1.9%). These conflicting economic indicators may compel the ECB to adopt a cautious stance by prioritizing growth and could result in additional monetary easing, potentially leading to a weakening of the euro. EURUSD broke the 1.1000 threshold and consolidated near the 1.0980 level. EMA21 has death-crossed EMA78 and widened the gap between them, indicating a bearish trend. If EURUSD sustains below 1.1000 and breaks 1.0950, the price may fall further to 1.0870. Conversely, if EURUSD breaches the 1.1000 threshold and EMA21, the price could rise to 1.1050.
by inkicho_exness
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Oct 4, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: The Eurodollar exhibited significant bearish sentiment during this week's trading session, and uncertainty prevailed regarding the currency trajectory amid Dead-Cat rebound activity. Three critical support levels were breached: Mean Support at 1.111, 1.108, and 1.101, ultimately stabilizing at the pivotal Mean Support of 1.097. The prevailing short-term buying pressure propels the currency towards a potential upward movement to the Mean Resistance level of 1.103. Nevertheless, the likelihood of further declines to the supplementary Inner Currency Dip at 1.090 remains strong, given the current interim price action.
by TradeSelecter
Will the ECB's dovish stance put downward pressure on the euro? EURUSD has remained range-bound between 1.1100~1.1215 for the week amidst escalating debates on whether the ECB will implement further rate cuts. Germany's September CPI has dropped to 1.6% YoY, down from the previous month's 1.9%. Market expectations indicate that the eurozone's CPI will decrease to 1.9% in September from 2.2%, marking the first time it has fallen below 2% since July 2021. A sustained decline in eurozone CPI could prompt the ECB to lower interest rates, exerting additional downward pressure on the euro. Since last week, EURUSD has consolidated in the 1.1110-1.1215 range. After breaking EMAs, the price awaits an additional catalyst for a bounce back. If EURUSD recovers above EMA21 and breaches 1.1215, the price could surge to 1.1270, the highest since Jul 2023. Conversely, if EURUSD breaks the support at 1.1110, the price could fall further to 1.1050.
by inkicho_exness
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Sep 27, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: The Eurodollar has exhibited volatile fluctuations in the current trading session, encountering resistance at the pivotal Key Resistance level of 1.119 with a possible extension to retest the completed Outer Currency Rally of 1.124. This pattern reflects uncertainty regarding the currency's trajectory amidst the ongoing Dead-Cat rebound activity. The prevailing short-term buying pressure is directing the currency towards a potential downward movement to the support level of 1.111, with the prospect of further declines to supplementary support levels at 1.108 and 1.101, given the present interim price action.
by TradeSelecter
BTC - 9/24/2024Historically, unemployment and inflation tend to alternate each other- hence the Philips inversion curve and other trading philosophies. Inflation is not necessarily under check in my opinion, but retail and establishments are eyeing up entries here as central banks like the ECB, BOJ, and Fed start cutting their interest rates as job numbers have arguably seemed to look good. In any case, I see cash injections in the economy and eased lending leading to some faith for a bullish scenario. The last time inflation and unemployment alternated severity, it caused a pretty substantial drop in BTC prices before a super-cycle. I'm bullish on the cycle overall.
Long
by O_Positive
EURUSD Analysis: Anticipating a Slight Bearish Bias Towards 1.1!EURUSD Analysis: Anticipating a Slight Bearish Bias Towards 1.10000 (24/09/2024) As we analyze the EURUSD pair this week, a slight bearish bias appears probable, with a target near the pivotal level of 1.10000. Key drivers for this outlook include the recent economic data releases, central bank policies, and market sentiment. 1. Economic Data: Recent Eurozone economic indicators have shown mixed results, with weak manufacturing PMI figures suggesting slowing growth. Conversely, US economic data, particularly strong job numbers and retail sales, point to a robust economy, potentially strengthening the dollar. 2. Central Bank Divergence: The European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to maintain a dovish stance amid economic uncertainties, while the Federal Reserve appears committed to a tighter monetary policy. This divergence could exert downward pressure on the euro. 3. Market Sentiment: Increased risk aversion due to geopolitical tensions may lead investors to favor safe-haven currencies like the USD, further supporting the bearish outlook for EURUSD. In conclusion, the combination of economic fundamentals, central bank policies, and market sentiment suggests that EURUSD may trend towards 1.10000 this week. Traders should stay alert for potential market shifts and adjust their strategies accordingly. Keywords: EURUSD analysis, bearish bias, economic data, central bank policy, ECB, Fed, market sentiment, forex trading, trading strategies, 1.10000 target.
Short
by PERFECT_MFG
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Sep 20, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: In the current week's trading session, the Eurodollar has displayed significant volatility within the defined range of Mean Support at 1.101 and Key Resistance at 1.119. This behavior reflects uncertainty regarding the currency's trajectory amidst the ongoing Dead-Cat rebound activity. The prevailing transient buying pressure is steering the currency towards a downward retreat to the support level of 1.111, with potential further retreats to supplementary support levels at 1.108 and 1.101 in light of the ongoing interim price movement.
by TradeSelecter
EURUSD extends uptrend due to dollar weakness EURUSD advanced to the 1.1140 level after breaching the descending channel’s upper bound as the dollar’s weakness intensified. EMA21 is widening the gap after golden-crossing EMA78, indicating an apparent bullish signal. If EURUSD holds above EMA21, the price could gain upward momentum toward the 1.1200 resistance. Conversely, if EURUSD fails to keep the 1.1100 support, where EMA21 intersects, the price could fall further to 1.1050.
by inkicho_exness
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Sep 13, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: During the current week's trading session, the Eurodollar exhibited a modest decline, briefly breaching the predefined support level of 1.103 and decisively transitioning to the freshly established resistance level of 1.110. The transient selling propels the currency downwards to the support level of 1.101, with a potential extension to the supplementary support levels of 1.097 and 1.091 amidst the interim price movement.
by TradeSelecter
Euro rises after ECB cuts interest ratesThe euro has extended its gains on Friday. EUR/USD is trading at 1.1091 in the European session at the time of writing, up 0.13% today. The euro has climbed 0.7% since the ECB’s rate cut on Thursday. The European Central Bank delivered as expected on Thursday, trimming the key interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.5%. This was the second rate cut in the current rate-lowering cycle, as the ECB responded to falling inflation and a deteriorating eurozone economy. The war against inflation is largely won, which enabled the ECB to deliver the rate cut. Inflation in the eurozone has dropped to 2.2%, close to the target of 2%. The ECB updated inflation forecast was unchanged from June, with inflation expected to average 2.5% in 2024 and 2.2% in 2025 At a press conference, ECB President Lagarde reiterated that rate decisions would be made “meeting by meeting” based on economic data, essentially ditching forward guidance. Lagarde sounded somewhat hawkish, noting that wage growth remains high and the labor market is still resilient. The ECB is being cautious and has signaled it will take a slow approach to further cuts and the markets are looking at a cut in December. If economic conditions suddenly worsen, the central bank would have to consider a rate cut next month. The Federal Reserve meets next week and rate cut odds continue to swing wildly. The US producer price index eased to 1.7% y/y in August, down from a downwardly revised 2.1% in July and below the market estimate of 1.8%. This sent the odds of a half-point cut soaring to 41%, up from just 13% yesterday, according the CME’s FedWatch. The Fed meeting is live, with plenty of uncertainty as whether the Fed will cut by 25 or 50 basis points. EUR/USD faces resistance at 1.1099 and 1.1123 There is support at 1.1052 and 1.1028
by OANDA
EURUSDHello Traders! What are your thoughts on EURUSD? This currency pair is currently positioned below a key resistance zone. It is expected that after a brief upward correction, it will likely decline towards the specified level. Additionally, the European Central Bank’s monetary policy meeting, scheduled to take place in the coming hours, could serve as a key catalyst for this pair's movement. If you found this analysis helpful, don’t forget to like and share your thoughts in the comments! ❤️
Short
by HAMED_AZ
15
Pre ECB Rates Decision Analysis12th September (ECB Rates Pending) DXY: Climbing towards 102 resistance, could push higher if EUR weakens, needs to break 102.20 for further upside to 102.70 NZDUSD: Sell 0.6135 SL 20 TP 60 (Hesitation at 0.6110) AUDUSD: Sell 0.6685 SL 20 TP 60 GBPUSD: Sell 1.3030 SL 25 TP 60 EURUSD: Rates decision pending, straddle opportunity, Sell 1.0985 SL 20 TP 45 USDJPY: Sell 143.50 SL 50 TP 150 USDCHF: Buy 0.8585 SL 40 TP 80 USDCAD: Sell 1.3580 SL 30 TP 70 Gold: Needs to stay below 2520 for downside to 2500
TVC:DXY
by JinDao_Tai