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EUR/USD [1] Long Term Eur suffered a devaluation compared to Usd since the end of 2021. The FED anticipated the hiking interest rates compared to the ECB, so its value strengthened and the price action was strongly bearish on this asset. Actually, the price moves around the dynamic support of the big triangle drawn but the price action will be influenced by the next national bank meetings in May. Some tools indicate a possible bounce in this area but we can't only rely on them. I'll check daily parameters to understand if it could be a bounce or a break-out zone. In the first case, the price should break up the 1.10522 are to think of recuperation of the euro.* In the second case, the main areas of price checking are around: 1)1.06382 (BEARISH) 2)1.04450 (BEARISH) *See the short-medium Term Analysis on EUR/USD for a better understanding of the price action. Keep updated and subscribe!
Short
by onlychance11
EUR/USD Reverses Early Gains, Aims 1.0800The EUR/USD pair failed to secure early intraday gains and finished Thursday lower as hawkish comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell lifted Treasury yields and the greenback during the American afternoon. The shared currency had risen on the back of comments from European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos who hinted at the possibility of a first rate hike in July. However, ECB President Christine Lagarde couldn’t live up to expectations at an IMF panel in Washington. She said inflation must be address “in a gradual way,” which in contrast with Powell's comments sent EUR/USD back below 1.0850. At the same panel, Powell did signaled that a 50 bps rate hike in May was likely. “It is appropriate in my view to be moving a little more quickly,” he said. This triggered a selloff in stocks and a jump in U.S. yields. As for the EUR/USD, the pair maintains the short-term negative perspective, according to technical indicators in the daily chart, while the price failed to consolidate above the 20-day SMA, all of which favors a downward move. The RSI and the MACD remain in bears territory, although turning flat, reflecting the dwindling selling momentum. The EUR/USD would need a break below the 1.0800 to bring the bearish momentum back and expose YTD lows at 1.0757 ahead of the 1.0700 psychological level and March 2020 low of 1.0635. On the other hand, immediate resistance remains at the 20-day SMA, currently around 1.0916, followed by 1.0940 and then the 1.1000 level.
by Alex_Boltyan_FXAnalyst
A Healthy Retracement Provides Better Short Entries for EURUSDThe value of Euro dropped significantly this year due to geopolitical tension between Russia and Ukraine, which has led to an inflation in Europe. Furthermore, US raising the interest rate and a dovish statement made by the ECB during the last EU interest rate decision further provided bearish momentum for the Euro. EURUSD is now channeling in a clear downtrend, and we are only looking for sell opportunities from the pullback. This pair has dropped to a new low of 1.0760 area, formed a double bottom and broke out of its neckline, signaling the beginning of the retracement stage. The first area to watch is the upside of the short-term downtrend channel, which could be in the area of 1.0900 (approximately 150 pips of retracement). Second key area to watch is the level at the 1.0950 area (approximately 200 pips of retracement). From those levels, we will observe to see whether the price will consolidate and form a reversal pattern and then a breakout. Key fundamentals to watch for the Euro currency Due to the current geopolitical tension, Euro can be easily affected by fundamental news. This pair has been very volatile recently, and any good news from the war (unlikely but not impossible), could send this pair 100 pips to the upside. Also, we need to focus on ECB President Lagarde’s speech. If she hints any possible rate hike in the future, that could immediately provide an enormous bullish momentum for this pair. Lastly, we also need to focus on the French election. If Macron is declared a winner, we expect the result to favor the Euro. President Lagarde’s speech time: April 21st, 18:00; April 22nd, 14:00 Fed Chair Powell’s speech: April 21st, 16:00 & 18:00 French President Election 2nd Round Result: April 24, 2022 19:00 (UK time, GMT+1hour)
Short
by NicoBeau_Capital
EUR/USD Reverses Daily Gains After ECB, Targets YTD Low The EUR/USD reversed early gains and turned negative for the day following the European Central Bank decision on monetary policy. The ECB left rates unchanged, as widely anticipated, and ratified that its Asset Purchase Programme (APP) will end in the third quarter, saying that the calibration of net purchases for the third quarter will be data-dependent and reflect the Governing Council’s evolving assessment of the outlook. At a press conference, ECB President Christine Lagarde noted that risk to inflation outlook is tilted to the upside in the near term having intensified lately. The euro weakened as the knee-jerk reaction as investors were expecting a more hawkish approach from the central bank. The EUR/USD fell back below the 1.0900 mark and hit a daily low of 1.0826, losing nearly 100 pips from the daily high set at 1.0923. Meanwhile, the U.S. released retail sales data, which showed a merely 0.5% increase in March, slightly below the 0.6% forecasted, while initial jobless claims rose to 185,000 last week, above the 171,000 expected. From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD holds a bearish short-term bias as shown by indicators in the daily chart. The MACD remains in negative territory, while the RSI is gaining downward slope, showing increasing selling pressure. At the same time, the price holds well below its main moving averages, with the 20-day SMA offering immediate resistance at the 1.0965 zone. A test of the YTD lows at 1.0805 is still on the cards, while a break below this level would expose April’s 2020 low of 1.0727 and eventually 1.0700. On the other hand, if the EUR/USD manages to regain the 20-day SMA, next resistances are seen at the 1.1000 psychological level and the 1.1070 zone, ahead of the critical 1.1150 23.6% Fib retracement of the May 2021 - March 2022 fall. A recovery above this latter should alleviate the short-term bearish pressure.
by Alex_Boltyan_FXAnalyst
1
Euro dips as German inflation soarsGerman data was in the spotlight on Wednesday, with the release of German inflation and ZEW Economic Sentiment. The numbers were worrying, but the euro's response was muted, as the currency trades in the mid-1.08 range. German CPI for March came in as expected, at 7.3% YoY. Still, this was a large jump from the 5.1% gain in February and marks the highest inflation release since Germany reunified in 1990. The drivers behind the jump are not hard to identify. The ongoing war in Ukraine, which looks like it will intensify, has caused significant inflation, especially for heating oil, natural gas and food products. Heating oil, for example, has soared 144% in the past 12 months. Germany is also struggling with supply disruptions due to the Covid pandemic. This has which has resulted in shortages of computers chips and many other products and hampered the key manufacturing sector. ECB President Lagarde has gone on record as being dismissive of inflation, taking a page from (the old) Fed Chair Powell and arguing that inflation was transitive. Eurozone inflation lagged behind the numbers in the US or UK, but today's German CPI release clearly shows that eurozone inflation is red-hot and the ECB will need to be more aggressive in order to lower inflationary pressures. There was more bad news as German ZEW Economic Sentiment worsened in April, with a reading of -41.0 (-39.3 prior). This was better than the consensus of -48.0 but still points to deep pessimism over the economic outlook amongst financial experts. The Eurozone ZEW release showed similar numbers. In the US, inflation continues to spiral, with the March headline figure hitting 8.5%, YoY, the highest level since December 1981. Inflation is being driven by supply bottlenecks, rising energy and food prices, and robust consumer demand. There is resistance at 1.1008 and 1.1141 1.0838 is a weak support line. Below, there is support at 1.0705
by OANDA
German Dax Can See Deeper Correction; Support at 14000 - 13500DAX is waking up, making higher highs and higher swing low which is a bullish trend since March low, so we can expect more upside after any retracement since this is wave A, still only the first leg of a higher degree A-B-C recovery. We can actually see a completed five-wave cycle within first leg A in the 4-hour chart so looks like correction in wave B has just started. That said, an upcoming A-B-C setback can retest 14000 - 13500 support area. Also, keep in mind that if ECB turns out to be more hawkish and if we will not get any positive news out from the Ukraine-Russia situation then DAX can be easily come down into wave C. Grega
EUREX:FDAX1!
by ew-forecast
GET READY FOR SHORTFX:EURAUD The correction that occurred in the Australian currency was caused by a decrease in the trade balance in that country, causing corrections in several Australian currency pairs such as, AUD/USD , GBP/AUD , EUR/AUD and so on. Bearish potential still exists in the pair EUR/AUD Need to be careful, the rising inflation rate in Europe due to the turmoil of war, made the ECB want to raise interest rates in order to reduce the impact of inflation. This could cause an upward correction for the Euro.
Short
by ellael_ella
EURUSD: EURO Likely To Keep Falling Towards 1.07000 Support!Another EURO pair in Freefall for quite some time! Against the USD, the EURO has been free falling in the previous years to date and now the downtrend might continue as the fundamental factors are against the EURO and supported with the USD. On the technical perspective, the descending channel evident on the weekly charts should likely guide the price to the next support that lies in the 1.07000 region. However with the 1.10000 psychological level still intact on monthly Timeframe, this trade can not be executed just yet! Psychological levels are very important levels in trading that needs to be cleared on monthly timeframe basis and in this case it yet to happen. Therefore to trade this trade with good conformation, it is advisable to await for the Monthly candle to close below 1.1000 first. Once the above main criteria is met, a short trade could be executed with the details present as below: TRADE TYPE: SHORT SWING TRADE ENTRY: 1.1000 PSYCHOLOGICAL RESISTANCE (AWAIT PRICE RETEST TO ATTAIN 1:1 RR) STOP LOSS: ABOVE THE DESCENDING TRENDLINE AT 1.12500 TAKE PROFIT: 1.07000 Cheers, I hope you find this insight helpful. Please LIKE & FOLLOW for more insights into Major & Minor currency pairs.
Short
by FX618Analysis
Euro stems bleeding as CPI hits 7.5%Inflation has been skyrocketing in the US and UK, giving the Fed and BoE plenty of sleepless nights. Inflation levels had been lower in the eurozone, and ECB President Christine Lagarde has not made inflation a priority, arguing that high inflation would ease. Meanwhile, eurozone inflation for March jumped to 7.5% YoY, up from 5.9% in February and above the consensus of 6.6%. Ahead of the release, ECB Vice-President De Guindos said that inflation should peak in the next two or three months. Clearly, the ECB brass has no intention of tightening policy in response to accelerating inflation. Lagarde has acknowledged that this stance will put the ECB out of sync with the Fed but has argued that the two central banks are dealing with different economic conditions. According to Lagarde, the war in Ukraine is having a much greater effect on Europe than on the US, which requires different policies from the two central banks. Lagarde can make a case for not embarking on the same rate path as the Fed, but what happens if inflation does not peak in the next few months, as the ECB is counting on? If that happens, Lagarde could choose to stick to her guns, or she may have to finally begin to tighten policy in order to curb inflation. The week ended on a high note, as the US employment report was quite strong. Nonfarm payrolls posted a solid gain of 431 thousand, although this was shy of the estimate of 490K. The unemployment rate fell from 3.8% to 3.6% and wage growth rose to 5.6% YoY, up from 5.2%. There is weak support at 1.1049, followed by 1.0940 EUR/USD faces resistance at 1.1114 and 1.1158
by OANDA
Euro Zone inflation at record highs!This is a big issue for the ECB, and they're very much between a rock and a hard place. For years the bank has kept policy extremely easy, and the economy has largely become used to this. However, they are now facing an inflation backdrop that ironically, they probably could only dream of 10 years ago (OK maybe not as high as it currently is, but you get the point). So what do they do from here? Just now, ECB's Philip Lane said, 'today's inflation number is very high.' Clearly then, there is a hawkish pivot occurring in the ECB. And we can see that the market has been pricing *some* hawkishness since the start of the year, if we look at EURIBOR futures... EUREX:FEU31! And the current market implied data suggests that the ECB are set to embark on a hiking cycle. In picture 1, we can see the Euro Area 1wk refi rate, which suggests that by September, at least a 25bp hike is priced in... Well, that is simply way too late, so think the odds will have been frontloaded way more now. In chart 2, we can see the overall policy path, which suggests that the ECB will reach a rate of 1.00% by 2024. And in chart 3, we can see how likely behind the curve the ECB is, especially with today's inflation prints... There's likely a trade in here then. If the market is expecting rate hikes further out, but they actually happen sooner, it's likely that European risk assets will be hit, specifically credit and their corresponding spreads. This would have a knock on effect to equities. Higher refinancing rates mean tighter margins. So pay attention to the ECB going forward, since they have the greatest relative policy pivot from historical out of all central banks!
ECONOMICS:EUIRYY
by FinkPro
16
EURUSD: Fundamentals Are Against The EURO! SHORT Move FavorableA tricky scenario regarding the EURUSD! Its too oversold however the fundamentals are still very much against the EURO here. A LONG move is being capped by multiple resistance and one of the nearest trendline capping its growth is visible on the main 4H chart. Therefore a SHORT move would be favorable shall the technical criteria meet, one of them being the daily candle to needs to close below 1.09100 support which would likely give way to further drop in price. Even if the above criteria is fulfilled, the price needs to retrace considerably before a SHORT trade could be executed and to achieve a 1:1 RR. Also note that if the price hits TP target first then retraces, the trade becomes invalid. Therefore a retrace needs to take place first. All the vital details are present on the main chart to observe. Cheers, I hope you find this insight helpful. Please LIKE & FOLLOW for more insights into other major currency pairs.
Short
by FX618Analysis
Major top on the bund measures to 155.37After one of the most hawkish meetings in quite a long time from the ECB where they outlined a faster pace of taper and dropped their language regarding rate cuts, we thought that we would take another look at the Bund chart. We are taking a look at the long-term Monthly chart of the Bund continuation contract and we can clearly identify a top on the chart (looks more like a descending triangle to my discerning eye). Chart patterns are fantastic, when you identify them properly of course!! For a valid top pattern this should appear at the end of a protracted bull market. They offer a long-term downside target (you use the width of the top to measure lower), this offers a downside measured target to 155.37 (the top extends from 167.52 to 179.67) and this coincides quite well with the 156.22 2018 low. Please note that this is the MINIMUM downside target. I also use the duration of patterns to give me some idea of time frame for when that downside target is likely to get hit. The top built from August 2019 to February 2022 i.e 2 ½ years, and targets are usually met in half that time – say 15 months. Mind you I have noticed over the years that the targets from tops tend to get hit faster, so I think under 12 months. We have two meetings next week - the Fed and the BOE and both are expected to raise interest rates by 25 bps, and with inflation where it is, further weakness looks likely. Disclaimer: The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
EUREX:FGBL1!Short
by The_STA
EURGBP: Any Impulse Move Would Meet Stern Resistance! EURGBP faces multiple upside resistance. The descending long term channel is still holding strong and any impulse up-move would likely be met with stern resistance. Fundamentally the EURO is under enormous pressure as well. Looking at the main weekly chart, we could clearly see that the major support break has already taken place that was held on multiple occasions in the past. This support break could guide the prices to the next available low, located at the 0.80000 psychological level. The descending channel might just help to guide the price to 0.8000. Ideally the stop loss should be placed above this channel, preferably above 0.85000 psychological level. Cheers, I hope you find this insight helpful. Please LIKE & FOLLOW for more insights on major currency pairs.
Short
by FX618Analysis
EURUSD Update: US CPI and FOMC Meeting AheadJobless Claims hits the lowest level over 5 decades. As full employment becomes a reality, the Fed will be forced to focus more on taming inflation. Earlier rate hikes knocking at the door. On the other hand, ECB is keeping its accommodative position. Today's CPI data and FOMC meeting of next week will show us the path If today's US CPI comes above 6.5, FED will be forced to take the necessary actions very soon. this will send EU down to 1.08500, by the latest Q1 2022.
Short
by chartreader_pro
2
Today’s Notable Sentiment ShiftsEUR – The euro climbed from 22-month lows against the dollar on Tuesday, supported by expectations that the Eurozone will increase fiscal spending to help offset the economic effects of the Russia/Ukraine war. Bloomberg reported that “the European Union plans as soon as this week to jointly issue bonds on a potentially massive scale to finance energy and defence spending.” While Wester Union also argues that “the ECB president may acknowledge euro weakness as among the headwinds facing the bloc’s economy. That’s been enough to offer the euro at least a momentary reprieve.”
by thunderpips
1
EURUSD - Europe WILL PAY for Ukraine WarOur friends in the USA are doing just fine. Far away from trouble, taking advantage of everything and anything. Respect Unfortunately this does not go for the 'Old Lady' Europe. Ukraine situation will affect Europe in many ways and i think that most people are aware of it. Let's go to Reuters that you can trust: Ukraine war sends euro below $1.10 for first time in two years ECB expects Ukraine war to weigh on euro zone growth - de Guindos : Russia's invasion of Ukraine and how the world reacts could have wide-ranging repercussions for the European economy, from rising energy and food prices to economic sanctions that hit trade and investment. That in turn will affect how quickly the economy gets back on its feet after two years of the coronavirus pandemic and the ability of policy-makers, among them the European Central Bank, to wind down emergency support measures. Following are some key variables and vulnerabilities. WHAT IS THE LIKELY IMPACT ON INFLATION? The escalation of tensions into outright conflict has the potential to generate immediate and rapid fuel and food price inflation. European Union countries buy 41.1% of their imported gas from Russia and 27% of their oil: thus, any restriction of supplies would quickly lead to higher energy prices. That would ripple through the economy from higher heating and fuel bills to costlier transport and power for businesses. Food supplies would also likely be hit. Natural gas is the main component in many fertilizers, so higher gas costs would likely push up all crop prices. Separately, Ukraine exported over 33 million tons of grain last year so any disruption there would reverberate across global markets - including in Europe. Overall, Bank of America Securities estimates an escalation could push euro zone inflation up 1 point to 4% for 2022. AND ON TRADE AND INVESTMENT? This will depend on the new sanctions due to be studied by EU leaders at an emergency summit on Feb. 24. They will be "the harshest package of sanctions we have ever implemented", the bloc's foreign policy chief, Josep Borrel said. read more The euro zone's export exposure to Russia has roughly halved since the confrontation over Crimea in 2014, as European firms looked to secure alternative trading partners. EU exports to Russia now amount to 80 billion euros ($89.31 billion) worth of goods annually, worth 0.6% of EU GDP. They are mainly machinery and cars, chemicals and manufactured goods. Among EU countries, Germany is both Russia's biggest exporter and importer; France, the Netherlands, Poland, Italy, Belgium all have sizeable trade. "Coming with strong sanctions against Russia is going to have some impact on the EU economy and we need to be ready for this," European Commission Executive Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis told Reuters on Feb. 23 L8N2UY6WC. The EU is also the largest foreign investor in Russia with total direct investment of 311.4 billion euros in 2019. That pales though compared with 2.16 trillion euros EU companies have invested in the United States. Russian investment in the EU is yet smaller at 136 billion euros. Depending on the severity of any sanctions and counter-sanctions, some or all of the European presence in Russia could be impacted. "On paper it is a lot, but this is only a small fraction of overall foreign direct investment of EU companies," said Daniel Gross, head of the CEPS think tank in Brussels, who added he saw little risk of Moscow wanting to expropriate plants run by EU companies because of the complexities entailed in running them. SO WHAT IS THE OVERALL IMPACT TO THE EURO ZONE ECONOMY? Clearly negative. Higher energy and food prices would sap household purchasing power and erode confidence. Consumption would be hit quickly and investments would likely fall in the weeks and months afterwards. "The geopolitical clouds that we have over Europe, if they were to materialise, would certainly have an impact on energy prices and, through energy prices, an increased cost throughout the whole structure of prices," ECB President Christine Lagarde said in early February, citing hits to consumption and investment. Moreover, since high energy prices hit lower income families the hardest, governments are likely to introduce subsidies, which in turn would put more pressure on state coffers already stretched by pandemic support measures. The Bank of America study reckoned an escalation would put at risk 0.5 percentage point of Europe's output directly through the drag on private consumption. Many consumers have built up buffers in the form of excess savings amassed during the pandemic, but some of those savings have already been eroded by soaring fuel bills. WHAT WOULD THE ECB DO? The challenge for the ECB, which sets monetary policy for the 19 countries sharing the euro, is that the Ukraine conflict has the potential both to add inflationary pressures and depress economic activity. Normally, ECB policy-makers look past short-term volatility because policy is only effective 12 to 18 months out. Still, with inflation already at a record high 5.1% and the ECB planning to unwind stimulus in the coming months, it could come under pressure to act faster to try and counter further price rises even if that risked hitting future output. Others argue this is precisely the reason to stay cautious and not set a fixed date to end ECB's main Asset Purchase Programme - as some ECB policymakers did ahead of the Russian invasion. "Judging the situation from today’s point of view, I would rather favour a continuation of the APP at least until the end of the year, beyond September," Bank of Greece Governor Yannis Stournaras, a member of the ECB's Governing Council, told Reuters. That is what ECB policymakers are likely to debate when they meet in Paris on Feb. 24 for what had initially been billed an informal get-together. It will help shape their decisions at the next policy meeting on March 10. EUROPE WAKE THE F$&% UP!!! THE FXPROFESSOR
by FX_Professor
10
EURGBP: More Pain Ahead For The EURO ? With Risk OFF mood especially hitting both EUR & GBP hard, it is well known that the common shared currency EUR has more painful future compared to the GBP! Here we look at the weekly chart that might support our view on this. First and most important step would be for the weekly candle to close below 0.82900 major support. By doing so, it would ensure a major long term support break and thus opening door to the next support that lies at 0.8000 region. After the break is confirmed, a short trade can be evaluated based on the risk to reward and executed. CHEERS
Short
by FX618Analysis
1