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The bulls took over the market in EUR/USDHello everyone :) I hope you are all doing well. I wondered which is the most interesting instrument suitable for analysis this week and concluded that it is definitely EUR/USD. Cristhine Legarde surprised the market last week when she did not rule out an increase in interest rates this year (although it could be in the last quarter of the year, but it is still very unexpected from the European Central Bank). Inflation in Europe is spiraling out of control and everyone understands that, so the ECB must do something about it. This was a very pleasant moment for the EUR, which showed great performance last week and really strong growth. When it comes to the technical picture, we can see a strong bull candle representing last week's activity This is a weekly chart and we can see that RSI shows bullish divergence while MACD is just truned bull, but the pair has to do some retracement and this may be our chance to go long. One more thing, if we include the Fibonacci retracement in this analysis (which you can see in the chart), we can see that the pair is on a retracement of 0.618 and is closed above that level, which may be another argument for the bulls. I wish you all a good trading week :)
Long
by merjemascerija
Will Euro Reverse Against the British Pound Post ECB and BoE?Following a surprise hawkish pivot by the European Central Bank as the Bank of England raised rates to 0.50% from 0.25%, EUR/GBP rallied the most since April 2021 this week. With markets already pricing in an aggressive BoE, that may leave room for equivalent ECB bets to catch up ahead. That could leave EUR/GBP tilted higher. The pair also closed at the highest since late December, reinforcing the key 0.8277 - 0.8364 support zone that has been in play since 2016. Even though EUR/GBP has been aiming lower since 2020, a closer look reveals that the pair has been consolidating for over 5 years. This has created a large rectangle where the ceiling lays around 0.9270 - 0.9499. The latest bounce off the floor of the rectangle may open the door to extending gains given confirmation. That would prolong the pair's long-term range-bound trend. Immediate resistance appears to be the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at 0.8538 before a potential falling trendline from 2020 may come into play. On the flip side, a close under the rectangle floor, with confirmation, may hint at ending consolidating, leaving the pair at risk of extending losses. FX_IDC:EURGBP
by QM_Dubrovsky
EURUSD before ECBToday is the ECB Interest Rate decision. We don't expect to see any changes but there's always a market reaction. Usually, the big moves are during the press conference 45 minutes after the Interest rates comes out. Technically, we're looking at this upside move as a pullback and we will be looking for selling opportunities. There's still a chance to see price rising up to around 1,1350 and then finding resistance around those values. That could also happen during NFP tomorrow. Don't rush with your entries before the news or at least use bigger stops in order to protect yourself from those long wicks.
Short
by ForexTrendline
40
EURGBP Long IdeaEURGBP has been in a downtrend since reaching the 0.841 level on the 24th of January. The price has been setting higher lows and lower highs since reaching this key zone. However the price has just fallen towards the support area of 0.83, which in the past has seen price increase from this zone. The RSI indicator on the 30m and 1hr time frame so very undersold levels which complies with our short-term long bias. The target of this trade is at the previous resistance zone (0.833) and above. The stop-loss area for this trade is located 500 points below the current level at 0.826.
Long
by Orion-Markets
The Next Leg DownWelp, I'm calling it. I believe the next leg of this market sell off is coming. I'm sure all of you saw the Asset Bubble Chart.. I just can't believe we will be a part of something like this. I believe the short term bear market rally has about come to its end and we are heading towards another sell off. There is absolutely no news that can prop up markets at this point. The numbers are starting to come in globally, and PMI, GDP world wide is utterly collapsed. Oil while it had a short move upward is still at prices that producers can not maintain. You will see an influx of bankruptcies of oil producers and shale companies. In fact, it already started. World wide, it's no better. Keep in mind that, during America's boom since 2016, most of Europe was in recession. Now imagine how bad the EuroZone is as they entered this crisis already in recession. So, what's my opinion? I believe the EuroZone will collapse first. There is new infighting between the EU and Germany on the ECB's Bond Buying Program. This is potentially catastrophic as the EBC has no stopped their bond buying program since 2010 and they already have their interest rates at -0.45%! Europe has nothing left in their arsenal besides massive printing and stimulus, which will be short lived. After Europe collapses, Japan will be the next country to be hit. Japan has been had some of the worst economics and demographics of any country. They have been printing like never before and their entire country is heading into a depression. Couple this with weaker sales of electronics and vehicles, Japan is going to hit a wall here soon. The Bank of Japan can not save what was done. Lastly, the United States will have its day of reckoning. After decades of unbalanced budgets, printing infinitely, political uncertainty and a general instablity, the US will have a recession that never was before. The Great Recession of 2008 shattered the floor.. and since them they put glue in all the cracks, it held but they added more weight than ever. Every kind of debt is at record levels. The US Federal Tax Revenue is dropping $100,000 even 9 seconds and the US Debt is growing $100,000 every 4 seconds. The last time this Tax Revenue fell was 2008, during the recession. It's over folks. I don't mean to sound like an alarmist but you call a spade a spade when you see it. I believe this is the catalyst to the end of fiat world wide. Besides, historically, about even 30-50 years the world has been on a new global monetary standard since 1900s. The last monetary standard was in 1970s when Nixon killed the Bretton Woods system. So, what'll happen from here? The central banks will do what they always do in a crisis and the printers will be put on max output. Currency will be created like never before. I believe in the next 1-3 years, we will see hyper inflation in the US. Keep in mind, the One-Dollar Zimbabwe was worth $1.40ish USD in 2007. In 2008, we had the infamous 100,000,000,000,000 trillion Zimbabwe notes. Yes, it took just ONE year for hyper inflation to hit. What can I say? Hedge in silver and gold , a little in BTC because at this point who knows what will survive this crash. Dow will fall easily below 10,000.. and we will see the greatest number of unemployed people ever. This virus did a whole lot more damage underneath than we thought. There will NOT be a U-Shaped recovery. Fear has set in, people do not want to return to work and the once insane thought of basic income is now becoming reality. This isn't a chart on how to profit from this down turn, its just a cold reality check. I believe man has held it together for as long as they did but we see, people are no longer patient or caring. People are quicker to jump to conflict than peace. I believe society will also collapse and the once sane moral minded man will descend into violence, rioting, and looting. It sounds far fetched but, man will be man doesn't matter what year it is. static.seekingalpha.com
TVC:DJI
by WorldEconomics
10
EURJPY At Critical Sell Level! Await Break Of 130.000 Support Have a look at the weekly chart for EURJPY. Here we can clearly see that the price is in a bullish flag and pole formation. At the moment a consolidation should be expected as the price lies at the critical sell zone. Now looking at the smaller picture on the main chart, to go short a concrete confirmation is required. The ideal point of breakage should be considered the daily candle breach of 130.000 psychological support. Once the daily candle has closed below 130.000, it is highly probable that the price would start to accelerate downwards. Trade sample (The daily candle must close below 130.000 first) ENTRY POINT: AT AROUND 130.000 STOP LOSS: 131.600 TAKE PROFIT: 127.600 RISK TO REWARD: IDEALLY 1:1 SO ADJUST THE ENTRY ACCORDINGLY Trade safely and with confirmation. Cheers
Short
by FX618Analysis
EUR JPY long Idea Since EURJPY fell to the support level of 127.7 in the middle of December, the pair has been in a modest uptrend. There has been a 3% rise in price and EURJPY is currently trading at the 130.850 area. Since setting a new monthly high of 131.55, there has been a small drop off in price, however there has been some buying pressure at around this current level which is also in line with a trendline that EURJPY has respected since the uptrend began. The RSI levels on the 1hr time frame are in oversold conditions which indicates that a rise in price is likely from this area. The target of this trade is at the previous high, assuming trend will continue. To mitigate losses, the stop-loss area will be located at the recent support level of 130.250.
Long
by Orion-Markets
Euro slips below 1.13 but recoversThe euro lost ground earlier on Thursday but has recovered most of these losses. EUR/USD is currently trading at 1.1337, down 0.08% on the day. With a very light economic calendar this week, the markets are being driven by sentiment, which essentially means the latest Omicron headlines. The markets remain fairly upbeat, despite the explosion in Omicron infections. France and the US posted all-time record highs for the number of new cases, but that hasn't made a dint in investor sentiment. The equity markets are humming, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones posting record highs, while the safe-haven dollar is broadly lower as risk tolerance remains elevated. This upbeat mood was reinforced by a larger than expected decline in US crude oil inventories and an unemployment claims release of 198 thousand, which was better than expected. This suggests that the US economy continues to perform well, even with the newest Covid wave. ECB President Christine Lagarde has been rather dismissive of inflationary pressures, even with eurozone inflation hitting a record 4.9% y/y in November. The ECB this month projected that inflation will fall to 1.8% after 2022, but this view is by no means unanimous. In an interview published on Thursday, ECB member Klaas Knot said that eurozone CPI could well remain above the bank's 2% target for years and that the bank's forecast "could prove to be too rosy". The ECB has no plans to change its accommodative policy, and plans to continue QE even while winding up its emergency pandemic programme (PEPP) in March 2022. Spain's Flash CPI for December is estimated at 6.7%, much higher than the 5.5% gain in November. If eurozone CPI releases in early January also show an uptick, we could see additional ECB members echo Knot's view that inflation could stay above the bank's 2% target in the coming years. . EUR/USD has support at 1.1255. Below, there is support at 1.1190 There is resistance at 1.1364 and 1.1408
by OANDA
1
$EURJPY: Daily uptrend once again...Seems like yields have bottomed in the US, we got a shot at a reflationary/reopening move thanks to the recent wave of news surrounding Omicron and the $PFE/$MRK pills, together with a nice sentiment reset for the past month across the board. I'd suggest going long XXXJPY here, I'm in $GBPJPY and $EURJPY personally, but $AUDJPY also has a nice signal as well and historically correlates equities, in particular in periods like what could unfold next. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
1
Omicron Could Drive EURJPY To 125.000!Ascending channel on weekly TF broke, bullish flag and pole formation is currently developing at the moment. In a long run, this pair has been in an uptrend, however since the channel and psychological barrier of 130.000 broke, the price is likely to aim the next support that lies at 125.400! TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Bullish pole and flag formation currently in play on W charts. The 130.000 psychological barrier broke with M candle closing below it. This signals the price is ready to head lower towards 125.000 support area. This SHORT move signals further consolidation in EURJPY (FLAG CONTINUATION) FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS *Omicron the main driver for this pair at the moment *Anticipated rise in the cases globally after the festive season would make JPY safehaven demand rebound, thus sending EURJPY lower HOW TO TRADE? Trade could be executed at this moment with the following suggested details as the risk to reward ratio is favorable at the current price ENTRY: 130.000 & ABOVE STOP LOSS: AT SWING HIGH 133.750 TAKE PROFIT: NEAR SUPPORT 125.4000 RR: > 1:1 Cheers & Happy holidays
Short
by FX618Analysis
2
EURUSD - Roads to the mastering of positional play(an affinity between 'C' legs and 'impulsive' swings.... patience pays) 1. Counter the false conception that every single break lower has to produce an immediate effect; waiting plays and methodical moves are totally justified. 2. Recognise the idea of prevention in this breakdown as being a key reversal in play! With this in mind, the struggle for sellers to keep buyers from breaking up, and in doing so preventing any sense or organisational defence to your position is just asking for trouble. Technically we are at a very important point, a lot of air above till 1.19 and 1.21. 3. Have tremendous respect for wave strategy, avoid any premature moves, when the timing is right, begin to flank your opponent and play to operate under the watchword of centralisation. 4. Aim for a total swing, if you are not in from 1.161/1.162, 1.168x, still a great deal of mobility in the risk to reward at these levels. The barrier at 1.15 on the one side, with very little till 1.21 to the other. 5. Get used to inflation becoming the restraint of ECB; do not let Lagarde lip service approach intoxicate your decision making. 6. What is important here to remember, play is an attack, not defence, but only momentum! For those who were following the earlier stages in this leg, we are trading a very similar setup to:
Long
by ridethepig
16
EURUSD: What Story Is the Bigger Picture Telling Us?Most of us either are scalpers & day traders. A very few categories of traders perform swing and position trades, as it involves higher timeframe analysis possibly from 4H & above up until monthly candles. Here we analyze the EURUSD M charts and try to observe what the market is telling us on a larger scale! Currently the price of the EURUSD is approaching a long term concrete ascending trendline that has been validated or tested on 3 different occasions. The blue horizontal lines on the M charts represent concrete psychological support and resistance levels which are highly efficient when utilized on monthly timeframes. At the moment, the price is approaching or near the 1.10000 psychological support which also coincides with our long term rising trendline. With FED tapering faster and 2-3 hikes already priced in, the outlook for EURUSD on a larger scale remains dark in 2022. However as traders we should always trade with confirmation and seeing this trendline has been tested on multiple occasions and respected, we need for the monthly candle to pierce and close below this trendline and 1.1000 psychological support. After this a SHORT trade could be executed with the target being the next psychological support at 1.05000. On the flip side, shall this trendline hold, the outlook for EURUSD would still remain bearish unless 1.25000 level and previous high is cleared. In short, the outlook remains bearish on both M & W timeframe for the EURO. On lower Timeframes such as the D & 4H, traders could possibly analyze to execute LONG trades but caution and confirmation. With FED tightening priced in, it remains to be seen if the US economy would actually meet the expectations in 2022. if we see stronger data and expectations meeting, we could see the greenback appreciate and break this trendline. However if the opposite occurs, we should expect this trendline to hold. Cheers, I hope you found this insight helpful. Happy holidays
Short
by FX618Analysis
EUR/GBP - Key Support HoldingWith both the ECB and BoE meetings now behind us, how do we assess the impact on the currencies and what it means going forward? Interestingly, there were no major surprises on either side. The BoE moved slightly earlier while the ECB tweaked its asset purchases, with the result being that the PEPP comes to an end in March while the support it provided is only slowly phased out over an additional six months. In terms of the technicals, there may also be some interesting takeaways. The spike lower yesterday saw the pair run into support around the 61.8 fib (4-hour chart) before quickly recovering to sit back above the 50 fib and 200/233-period SMA band. This had been key support prior to the meetings and remains so now. If 0.85 holds, it could potentially be a very bullish signal going into the new year. Another failure and the long-term downtrend may continue.
by OANDA
Today’s Notable Sentiment ShiftsGBP/BoE – Sterling jumped to December highs on Thursday after the Bank of England surprised investors by hiking interest rates by 15 basis points, taking the Official Bank Rate to 0.25%, with only Tenreyro dissenting in a vote split of 8-0-1. Commenting on the BoE’s decision, Berenberg noted that “having first guided markets into betting on a rate hike in November, the Bank of England today defied market expectations again by finally pulling the trigger. We expect a further 25 basis point hike in February 2022 to take the bank rate to 0.5%.” Meanwhile, IG added that “the announcement does look like a bit of a panic move – the Bank of England is probably regretting its decision not to move last month when Omicron wasn’t even an issue.” EUR/ECB – The ECB kept interest rates on hold at their December meeting but did announce the end of its pandemic emergency asset-buying scheme, with the central bank looking to begin tapering from March onwards. However, the ECB also promised support as needed via its long-running Asset Purchase Programme, confirmed its relaxed view on inflation, and signaled that any exit from years of ultra-easy policy would be slow.
by thunderpips
10
GBPNZD Long IdeaGBPNZD has just seen a small sell-off towards the levels of 1.9495 however it appears that there has been some support formed here. If the BoE decides to raise interest rates then it's likely for GBPNZD to push forward and test the previous high of 1.97. As the Fed plans more rate hikes in 2022 it's possible for the UK to follow suit, which is why I'm bullish on pound pairs approaching the end of the week. The stop-loss area for this trade is located just below the bottom of the range at 1.93658.
Long
by Orion-Markets