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EUR/USD FIST Update - June 28Hi traders, here is a full update for EUR/USD. Please hit the 'LIKE' button if you find this post useful. Also, don't forget to follow to get more trade ideas like this. Thanks! TECHNICALS The EURUSD pair broke below a long-term trendline on the daily chart following the FOMC meeting, with the correction losing steam at the broken trendline, which now acts as resistance. The 1-hour chart shows a push below a short-term trendline in a pattern that resembles a bearish wedge, signaling further weakness. Volume: The daily bars that form that corrective move occurred on lower volume. The strong bearish candlestick on the 1-hour chart that formed today (high volume), as well as the following bullish 1-hour candlesticks (high volume but weak movement) are a bearish signal for the pair. Levels to follow (Liquidity): Important resistance: 1.1975 (last week's high) Important support: 1.1900 (daily low and round-number support) FUNDAMENTALS: Latest Headlines: USD News: US Dollar Index looks for direction around 91.80 Fed's Rosengren: You don't want too much exuberance in the housing market US air strikes against Iran-backed militia in Syria and Iraq EUR News: ECB's Holzmann: PEPP will end when virus emergency is over ECB's Holzmann: We don't know yet what price path will bring EUR/USD stays consolidative near 1.1940 Resistance at 1.1998/1.2007 to cap for a move back to 1.1847/24 – Credit Suisse Risk of second-round inflation effects remains limited Upcoming Market Reports: Here are the most important market reports for EUR/USD to follow in the coming days: Tuesday at 07:03 (GMT): EUR Italian Bank Holiday Tuesday at 14:00 (GMT): USD CB Consumer Confidence (Expected: 118.9 , Previous: 117.2 ) Wednesday at 09:00 (GMT): EUR CPI Flash Estimate y/y (Expected: 1.9% , Previous: 2.0% ) Wednesday at 12:15 (GMT): USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (Expected: 555K , Previous: 978K ) Wednesday at 13:45 (GMT): USD Chicago PMI (Expected: 70.2 , Previous: 75.2 ) Wednesday at 14:00 (GMT): USD Pending Home Sales m/m (Expected: -1.1% , Previous: -4.4% ) Wednesday at 14:30 (GMT): USD Crude Oil Inventories (Expected: , Previous: -7.6M ) INTERMARKET: Yield differentials in the short-term: Bearish == SUMMARY == Fundamentals and technicals point at further weakness in EURUSD. We remain bearish on the pair.
Short
by MujkanovicFX
2
EURAUD Short- Respect For Topside Liquidity- ECB TodayOnce again EURAUD has respected the top side only taking out the former highs before showing weakness and beginning to roll over. This offers a great RR set up and the prevailing market sentiment suggests a recovering Dollar and a stronger bond market out of the gate this morning which perhaps suggests continued weakness in the Euro. The German Buba report will be in an hour and could create some smaller time frame volatility in the Euro as projections are announced. Later today the head of the European Central Bank will be speaking and will likely touch on some important points. Trade accordingly. Another thing to consider, is if there is considerable upside momentum, marketing in to a buy order. This could offer a quick scalp if there is enough pressure with plenty more liquidity to be chased down on the topside.
Short
by crawfordpaul
1
#EURCAD: Bottom's inI suspect the $EURCAD cross pair is reversing in the weekly timeframe here, we might see a substantial rally as oil could be peaking here, and the $Euro is oversold. The setup calls for a potential rally to 1.53, with risk down to 1.47 if the trade fails. Ideally you try to get in on dips after the market is open, keep an eye on price action for an entry. Alternatively you can average in during the day to not be left out in case there's no retrace. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
3
ridethepig | EURCHF into 1.14The concept of this complete or at least partially supported euro structure In this swing, there are three actors: 1 . the support which is acting as a pivot 2 . the opposing resistance which is being targeted 3 . the breakout trigger which will provide momentum The breakout here is attacking the soft resistance at 1.14 which is +/- 4% from current levels and 1.20 next year. So buyers are standing in deep value levels with the two targets mentioned. The structure underneath is generally of royal blood, buyers put a lot of time into the plumbing of these levels and are not fearful of hiding behind one another - thus the short space between strong and soft support. If this lacks the mobility to break out and is an absolute chop fest then we can make the executive decision to make no move of any sort. If on the other hand, the momentum kicks in as I am expecting, we can move to 1.14 with little pushback over the coming weeks and months. The diagram illustrates the long-term map. Here the flow towards 2018 highs is underway with the European rebound and we are only "partially" into wave 3. This means we can confidently lean on the macro direction as Swiss outflows are set to continue with CHF cooked as a low yielder for the next few years. For those tracking the SNB reserve activity closely, they are going to get a lot more active in Q3 (a lot similar to Q1).
Long
by ridethepig
5
EUR/USD FIST Analysis for June 14: What you need to knowHi traders, here is an update for EURUSD for today and the current week. We analyzed fundamentals, yields, sentiment, and technical levels and showed how we would trade the pair. Enjoy! FUNDAMENTALS: Top Headlines for June 14: US Dollar Index clings to gains around the 90.00 region US President's infrastructure spending proposal in focus US Dollar Index Price Analysis: DXY extends bounce off nearby support line to tease 90.00 EUR/USD to bask a recovery as the inflation monster is not as scary as it seems France Current Account above forecasts (€-2.7B) in April: Actual (€-1.4B) France Imports, EUR: €46.851B (April) vs €46.05B Upcoming market reports: Date - Report - Forecast - Previous - Impact 0 2021-06-15 12:30 UTC USD Core Retail Sales m/m 0.4% -0.8% High 1 2021-06-15 12:30 UTC USD Retail Sales m/m -0.6% 0.0% High 2 2021-06-15 12:30 UTC USD PPI m/m 0.5% 0.6% High 3 2021-06-15 12:30 UTC USD Core PPI m/m 0.5% 0.7% Medium 4 2021-06-15 13:15 UTC USD Industrial Production m/m 0.6% 0.7% Medium 5 2021-06-16 14:30 UTC USD Crude Oil Inventories X -5.2M Medium 6 2021-06-16 18:00 UTC USD FOMC Statement High 7 2021-06-16 18:00 UTC USD FOMC Economic Projections High 8 2021-06-16 18:30 UTC USD FOMC Press Conference High 9 2021-06-17 12:30 UTC USD Unemployment Claims 360K 376K Medium 10 2021-06-17 12:30 UTC USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 31.2 31.5 Medium There is no high-impact or medium-impact news scheduled for EUR this week. INTERMARKET: EURUSD is trading well in balance with 2-year yield differentials. However, the US yield curve has shown falling yields for all maturities in the last 5 trading days, which could further increase selling pressure in the USD (bullish for EURUSD). The USD index has also failed to break above the weekly 90.60 resistance this morning. Currency Strength Index: While not a top-performer, EUR is trading near daily highs as positive risk sentiment generally favored risk currencies this morning. The US dollar has entered a short-term downtrend, signaling further upside potential for EURUSD. TECHNICALS Price-Action: The EURUSD pair found support at the 61.8% Fib level of the latest daily impulse move and formed a double bottom pattern on the short-term chart. Buyers started to push the price higher as the USD gave back some gains from Friday. The gains were made on relatively low volume, signaling that selling power and/or liquidity was quite low. == HOW TO TRADE? == We favor a long position in EURUSD given the strong support at the 61.8% Fib level and the double bottom pattern. Lower inflation fears and a Fed that could be on hold on Wednesday (potentially further postponing quantitative tapering) could provide a strong bullish move in the EURUSD pair. Please hit the 'LIKE' button if you find this post useful. Also, don't forget to follow to get more trade ideas like this. Thanks!
Long
by MujkanovicFX
Any upside in the DXY is likely to prove fleeting - WestpacEvent Risk: May CPI the key risk event, many braced for another blowout number. Fed enters blackout period ahead of their 16-17 June meeting. Bias: -DXY stabilizing ahead of key risk events in the next week: payrolls, CPI and ECB. A USD friendly mix can be stitched together: whisper talk into payrolls is more reserved, the May CPI will surely reflect ongoing bottlenecks and reopening frictions, while Lagarde has signaled that the ECB is likely to extend pandemic asset purchases at EUR85bn for another quarter. -But any DXY upside potential likely proves modest while the Fed maintains patient guidance. Potentially stronger than expected May payrolls and CPI won’t shake the Fed’s resolve. Admittedly more officials are warning to a tapering conversation, but any decision is still many months away. -Infrastructure talks remain congenial, the White House trimming their proposal to $1.7trn from $2.3trn and the GOP making a $928bn counteroffer. But key sticking points remain on hard vs social infrastructure and how to fund it. -DXY still a sell on strength, looking for fresh 2021 lows on a 3 month horizon.
TVC:DXY
by thunderpips
3
EUR/USD FIST Outlook for the Next Week 📈BULLISH FOR THE PAIR: 1. Market reports: German Manufacturing and Services PMI beat estimates, Business and Consumer confidence are rising. US PMIs and Consumer Confidence are also up, but the USD is currently more focused on yields and risk sentiment. News: Accelerated vaccination efforts in the eurozone to support the EUR against other currencies. Risk Sentiment: Risk sentiment is likely going to be supportive for the EUR in the coming week due to higher vaccination rates. New German lockdown measures had a muted impact on the pair. Technicals: Technicals look very bullish with Friday's close. Strong bullish candle on the weekly, fresh higher high, and previous retest of the 61.8% Fib level. Buying seems supported by higher volume. Pair reaching 6-week high. BEARISH FOR THE PAIR: Yields: Yield differentials between German Bunds and US Treasuries point to the downside. Looks quite bearish. Currency Strength Index: EUR is the strongest for the week, USD the weakest. Looks like mean reversion could drive the pair lower in the next week. Futures Positioning: Large speculators are becoming more bullish on the USD. Shorts were cut by 2.5K contracts. Longs in EUR were cut by 1.5K contracts, shorts by 0.9K contracts. == HOW TO TRADE? == While profit-taking activities and yield differentials could drive the pair lower from current levels, pullbacks look like a nice opportunity to buy. Only a fall below 1.2000 would turn the bias bearish. The 1.618% Fib extension could be on the table. Please hit the "LIKE" button if you find this post useful. Also, don't forget to follow to get more trade ideas like this. Thanks!
Long
by MujkanovicFX
9
Dax - Short Pre ECBThe Dax's phenomenal rally from pandemic lows has seen the index almost double in just over 12 months on the back of ECB quantitative easing. However, there are growing calls amongst the more hawkish members of the ECB's governing council for bond purchases to be scaled back as inflation and economic growth is expected to increase in the coming months. However, even though we don't expect any major announcements at this afternoon's press conference this coupled with choppy markets could instigate a sharp reversal towards support at 14,000.
XETR:DAXShort
by KQMarkets
ECB meeting in spotlightEUR/USD is having a rare day in negative territory. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.2006, down 0.24% on the day. The euro has been in fine form in April, racking up gains of 2.3%. The currency has made up most of the ground lost in March when EUR/USD fell by 2.8%. The direction of the US dollar has, to a large degree, been dependent on 10-year US Treasury yields. In March, yields moved higher and provided the dollar with a lift. Conversely, with yields retreating in April, the dollar has suffered broad losses. The ECB holds its policy meeting on Thursday (11:45 GMT), and the central bank is widely expected to hold the course on monetary policy and leave the main financing rate at 0.00%. With the developed economies expected to show significant recovery in 2021, there have been rising concerns about taper tantrums, once central banks change their ultra-accommodative stance, which has been put in place in order to deal with the severe economic downturn caused by the Covid-19 pandemic. This is unlikely to be an issue with the ECB, which appears determined to continue fiscal and monetary support for the eurozone until the recovery is well underway. Once that occurs, the ECB can be expected to reduce purchases under its emergency pandemic programme (PSPP), while continuing its traditional QE programme, under which the ECB has been purchasing bonds in the amount of EUR 20 billion/month throughout the Covid pandemic. With the upcoming ECB meeting expected to be a"snoozer", the meeting could well be a non-event for the euro. It has been a good week for the euro, which punched past the symbolic 1.20 level this week for the first time since March 4th. The currency could get a bit of a boost if ECB President Christine Lagarde's comments after the meeting are more optimistic than expected. EUR/USD is testing resistance at 1.2027. Above, there is resistance at 1.2073. On the downside, there is support at 1.1903 and 1.1825
by OANDA
EUR and ECB: Dovish for bonds, but not for EURECB frontloading PEPP purchases isn’t a negative for EUR/USD. It helps to underscore the latest market narrative of tentative stability in core bond yields, in turn taking away support from USD. EUR/USD to move above 1.25 in summer. The main winner from the subsequent stability in core bond markets is EM FX, mainly the high yielders that got hit last month. Frontload PEPP purchases is not bad news for EUR/USD The European Central Bank surprised with the announcement of frontloaded Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) purchases (see ECB Review), but in terms of the dovish impact on underling eurozone assets, this is more a story for the eurozone bond market than the euro itself. As we argued in the ECB Cribsheet, as long as the whole PEPP envelope is not extended, the negative impact on the euro should be limited as this only changes the pace of the bond purchases, but not the overall size. For a more meaningful (negative) impact on the euro, the size of the PEPP envelope should have to be increased. Such a potential move from the ECB is still rather far away and unlikely, in our view. If anything, the ECB decision to lean against the rising bond yields is a positive for EUR/USD as more bond buying helps to underscore the very latest market narrative of the tentative stability in core bond yields. This in turn is (a) negative for USD, the key beneficiary of the UST sell-off in February (largely because it triggered a positioning squeeze in G10 and EM currencies) and (b) positive for cyclical FX and also for EUR/USD. Moreover, the fact that the ECB language is now less downbeat (‘’risks have become more balanced’) has also helped to offset any dovish impact from frontloading the PEPP purchases on the euro. Constructive EUR/USD outlook We reiterate our bullish EUR/USD view. Not only does today’s ECB decision help to limit the key USD tailwind of late (sharply rising UST yields), but as the eurozone economy starts to recover in the second quarter (with the pace of vaccination set to increase), EUR/USD should start moving higher, further helped by the deeply negative US front-end real rates (note: US CPI should push above 3.5% during 2Q). We thus expect EUR/USD to move above 1.2500 this summer. EM FX the big beneficiary from ECB attempt to stabilise the bond market The big winner from the ECB's decision to front-load PEPP purchases should be Emerging Market FX. This FX segment was under material pressure in February as the UST sold off. But now, with another hint at stability in the core bond market, EM FX will be given some more breathing room. With most of the EM currencies trading in undervalued territory and local EM bond markets selling off throughout February, this now offers good entry points – mainly for EM high yielders which got particularly exposed via the bond channel during the February sell-off. The expected rise in EUR/USD is also a favourable factor for the low yielding Central and Eastern European FX, which should benefit from the EUR/USD overlay. We continue to see CZK as the most attractive currency in the region as the Czech National Bank remains hawkish (and should hike rates twice this year), the currency is undervalued vs EUR and the Czech current account should remain in surplus this year. Original Article: think.ing.com By Petr Krpata, CFA, Chief EMEA FX and IR Strategist at ING. think.ing.com Content Disclaimer: The information in the publication is not an investment recommendation and it is not an investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes without regard to any particular user's investment objectives, financial situation, or means. Read more: think.ing.com
by ING_Think
1
Sell GOLD! NOW!Although many people are just looking for when to BUY gold, it is in a downtrend on H4. In addition, it is currently facing serious resistance, which we expect to push back the price. The price will be able to form new bottom at1667! The minimum stop must be above 1764. This allows for a current ratio of 2: 1. For a better ratio, you can go on a shorter period and look for an reversal. If you have questions about how to trade this or another situation, contact us! To support us, like and comment!
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by ForexTrendline
6
The raptureIt's always similar to someone falling from the 25th floor. Everything is fine for 24 floors. Ignored. You can hear flies, then noobs all get excited and push each other to bet he will die after he hit the ground. Actually not even, they hesitate, they are afraid, they want to be real sure, so they wait till he is declared dead at the hospital and rush to bet he will die, hey never know maybe he ressusitates magically and then dies again? 10/10 bet. Source for the central bank assets (check figure 6 you will like it): www.yardeni.com Central banks throw money around, and the indices go up weeks later. Investors sell their Yen, and the indices go up weeks later. So dumb. Daddy, what were you doing when there was free money being thrown around? Your dad is a loser son. If it's too good to be true, you live in idiocracy, this is why it's too good to be true, we live in idiotland. No worries about getting out fast when it collapses, most "investors" are too stupid to run for the exits lmao, they will be aware of the collapse years or maybe even decades later. No need to worry about the wheelchair "competition". Screw it, Yen selloff collapsing, it's over good luck bagholders I am selling full position and buying more juicy s&ps.
TVC:GOLD
by MrRenev
1
Euro showing rare winning formThe euro has rebounded on Tuesday, erasing most of the losses seen on Monday. Currently, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1901, up 0.46% on the day. The euro had its way with a wobbly US dollar late in 2020 and pushed close to the 1.23 line in late February. However, the euro has been under sustained pressure since then. EUR/USD is barely hanging onto the 1.19 level and finds itself close to lows not seen since November 2020. The euro has posted considerable gains on Tuesday, but will this prove to be a blip in the currency's downturn? With the US dollar getting a strong boost from higher US Treasury yields, attention has shifted to the ECB policy meeting on Thursday. The bank is none too happy about the rise in US Treasury yields, which, along with higher oil prices, has led to eurozone yields moving higher as well. The eurozone economy remains fragile due to the Covid pandemic, with the vaccine rollout proceeding slowly and strict health restrictions still in place across much of the bloc. Higher bond yields means higher borrowing costs, which could impede an economic recovery. ECB President Christine Lagarde hasn't said much about the jump in eurozone yields, perhaps being careful not to shake up the markets. Still, the market wants answers on whether the ECB will have a nonchalant stance to higher eurozone yields, as the Fed has shown in its relaxed response to higher US yields. If ECB policymakers voice their concern about higher yields, we can expect the euro to lose ground.  We are not seeing any change in the weekly support and resistance lines. On Monday, EUR/USD put strong pressure on support at 1.1832 but the line held strong. The pair has rebounded higher on Tuesday, giving this support level some breathing room. Below, there is support at 1.1.753, which has held since mid-November 2020. If EUR/USD breaks materially below the 1.1800 line, the pair could fall into 1.16 territory. On the upside, there is resistance at 1.2052, followed by 1.2193.  
by OANDA
EUR analysisToday we are considering the possibility of buying EUR, but against JPY. Here we are in a definite upward trend of the larger periods and the opportunity to enter at the moment is from H1. In the last few days we have seen a corrective movement that has been broken. This allows the price to continue to 130.23. In order to have the strength to continue this movement, the price must not go below the bottom. If you have questions about how to trade this or another situation, contact us! To support us, like and comment!
Long
by ForexTrendline
1
Forex might actually become interesting soonForex got nerfed hard in the 2008-2009 patch but it might be about to become overpowered. 0-1200 elo players still play it a lot as the result is the same no matter what: defeat. It's super interesting to look at their positions on IG, FXCM, Oanda I think, myfxbook. 0-1200 elo traders keep going against the trend, and you can see the average winner of the 10% with trend being maybe 60 pips and average loser of 90% that are against the trend -300 pips. What's super interesting is how there is barely any trend in this flat semi random market and consistently going against the trend like an idiot STILL LOSES MONEY. Some examples of dead FX pairs After 2011, USDCHF volatility dropped enormously, it was by far the lowest in 50 years. There was almost more volatility under Bretton Woods. And the price action of course just look at it, it is bad. EURUSD was also quite pointless but after getting smaller and smaller to the point of this disgusting trend down we had it rallied strongly and it might keep increasing in such volatility It is also very hard to predict moves, gurus say the opposite, all fx funds left but gurus know better sure. You would need more leverage (risk) to get sizeable winners, which is bad, and you will never end up running a mega winner because they just don't exist at all. Anyone that claims they predicted EURUSD direction & tops / bottoms in 2018-2019 is better than 100% of hedge funds and will easilly became a billionaire, so stop talking and show me the money if you're so good and not just lucky. Another one Delusional dreaming retail gamblers and their gurus might say "This is how markets work you have to adapt" (gosh this sounds so dumb why don't you jump in a volcan and adapt to no oxygen and 5000°C?) as well as "If it does not trend trade resistances reversal" 1- Moves are smaller and smaller anyway you get very little out of it, and you have to pay spreads, or comms (and spreads widen a lot) 2- Resistances are wide your entry to stop need to be very big for a small win 3- Where do you get out? Even if it reacts it will be very choppy and you never know when the reaction is over 4- It literally takes a few minutes to see this resistance BS does not work Let's hear it And at this point the guru knows that: 1- People that look for "education" want to be "taught", not go check themselves, they won't bother analyse all this crap 2- People that know what they are doing are not going to waste up to hundreds of hours checking laborious and stupid troll stuff 3- People that know what they are doing also know that even if they do the grind, the guru will take a big dumb smile and claim "ah but you forgot to add the rsi" or some painfully dumb bs, this can go forever, plus the victims won't listen to you, etc, so pointless, I'd rather play chess against a pigeon No one can be a full forex speculator, it can only be something on the side at certain times. I'm an FX trader but I post more about other markets, and keep taking trades in other areas more and more. But maybe it will improve "“I’m not expecting any real volatility spike, but it was so low for so long that the probability it increases is getting bigger,” said Andreas Koenig, head of global FX at Amundi Asset Management." Countertrend thinking "how low can it go", but maybe he is right. After markets contract they end up exploding and expanding. www.reuters.com So this is what we have: What could happen soon adding volatility: The ECB made a mistake of negative rates to boost the economy years ago which did not work but they won't admit their mistake. It took years for Japan to give up. Maybe Europe gives up soon, or goes into deep negative rates. It will all go boom soon anyway. France has the presidential elections in 2022 AND will be presiding Europe this will be the biggest event in more than 10 years and obviously impact the dead FX market so if they don't wake up now they will wake up next year! You can find the official paper for the EU undemocratic bureaucratic council presidency going to zero no one knows about here: eur-lex.europa.eu It's better on wikipedia honestly. Can't wait for the euro to be abandonned and to short sell the usd hyperinflation. Give me trends bigger than a ridiculous 2% that lasts for 10 days, give me reversals of more than a stupid 0.70%. FX might not be glamourous champagne investing now, but if you start getting into it and studying now when it wakes up from his slumber you will have a big advantage versus even the pros that join in the following years.
by MrRenev
3
Cup & Handle Continuation Here we see a possible cup and handle continuation on grounds that the 0.5 fibonacci retracement level holds as an entry point within the ABC channel correction and the cups support. Target will be 1.0. However, if the 0.5 fibo level is pierced as a confirmed breakout we can presume a double top from the two peaks at the 1.0 level with the target being 0.00. Essentially my bias is long from the 50.0 level but until then the bear run continues. Good luck and follow me for more! P.S, this time last year around March, EURCAD had a fantastic bull run; repeat?, maybe.
Long
by UnknownUnicorn4565572
Inflation Rate Roundups Trade Safe - Trade Well Regards, Michael Harding 😎 Chief Technical Strategist @ LEFTURN Inc. RISK DISCLAIMER Information and opinions contained with this post are for educational purposes and do not constitute trading recommendations. Trading Forex on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to invest in Forex you should consider your knowledge, investment objectives, and your risk appetite. Only trade/invest with funds you can afford to lose.
TVC:DXY
by Michael_Harding
2