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Any upside in the DXY is likely to prove fleeting - WestpacEvent Risk: May CPI the key risk event, many braced for another blowout number. Fed enters blackout period ahead of their 16-17 June meeting. Bias: -DXY stabilizing ahead of key risk events in the next week: payrolls, CPI and ECB. A USD friendly mix can be stitched together: whisper talk into payrolls is more reserved, the May CPI will surely reflect ongoing bottlenecks and reopening frictions, while Lagarde has signaled that the ECB is likely to extend pandemic asset purchases at EUR85bn for another quarter. -But any DXY upside potential likely proves modest while the Fed maintains patient guidance. Potentially stronger than expected May payrolls and CPI won’t shake the Fed’s resolve. Admittedly more officials are warning to a tapering conversation, but any decision is still many months away. -Infrastructure talks remain congenial, the White House trimming their proposal to $1.7trn from $2.3trn and the GOP making a $928bn counteroffer. But key sticking points remain on hard vs social infrastructure and how to fund it. -DXY still a sell on strength, looking for fresh 2021 lows on a 3 month horizon.
TVC:DXY
by thunderpips
3
EUR/USD FIST Outlook for the Next Week 📈BULLISH FOR THE PAIR: 1. Market reports: German Manufacturing and Services PMI beat estimates, Business and Consumer confidence are rising. US PMIs and Consumer Confidence are also up, but the USD is currently more focused on yields and risk sentiment. News: Accelerated vaccination efforts in the eurozone to support the EUR against other currencies. Risk Sentiment: Risk sentiment is likely going to be supportive for the EUR in the coming week due to higher vaccination rates. New German lockdown measures had a muted impact on the pair. Technicals: Technicals look very bullish with Friday's close. Strong bullish candle on the weekly, fresh higher high, and previous retest of the 61.8% Fib level. Buying seems supported by higher volume. Pair reaching 6-week high. BEARISH FOR THE PAIR: Yields: Yield differentials between German Bunds and US Treasuries point to the downside. Looks quite bearish. Currency Strength Index: EUR is the strongest for the week, USD the weakest. Looks like mean reversion could drive the pair lower in the next week. Futures Positioning: Large speculators are becoming more bullish on the USD. Shorts were cut by 2.5K contracts. Longs in EUR were cut by 1.5K contracts, shorts by 0.9K contracts. == HOW TO TRADE? == While profit-taking activities and yield differentials could drive the pair lower from current levels, pullbacks look like a nice opportunity to buy. Only a fall below 1.2000 would turn the bias bearish. The 1.618% Fib extension could be on the table. Please hit the "LIKE" button if you find this post useful. Also, don't forget to follow to get more trade ideas like this. Thanks!
Long
by MujkanovicFX
9
Dax - Short Pre ECBThe Dax's phenomenal rally from pandemic lows has seen the index almost double in just over 12 months on the back of ECB quantitative easing. However, there are growing calls amongst the more hawkish members of the ECB's governing council for bond purchases to be scaled back as inflation and economic growth is expected to increase in the coming months. However, even though we don't expect any major announcements at this afternoon's press conference this coupled with choppy markets could instigate a sharp reversal towards support at 14,000.
XETR:DAXShort
by KQMarkets
ECB meeting in spotlightEUR/USD is having a rare day in negative territory. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.2006, down 0.24% on the day. The euro has been in fine form in April, racking up gains of 2.3%. The currency has made up most of the ground lost in March when EUR/USD fell by 2.8%. The direction of the US dollar has, to a large degree, been dependent on 10-year US Treasury yields. In March, yields moved higher and provided the dollar with a lift. Conversely, with yields retreating in April, the dollar has suffered broad losses. The ECB holds its policy meeting on Thursday (11:45 GMT), and the central bank is widely expected to hold the course on monetary policy and leave the main financing rate at 0.00%. With the developed economies expected to show significant recovery in 2021, there have been rising concerns about taper tantrums, once central banks change their ultra-accommodative stance, which has been put in place in order to deal with the severe economic downturn caused by the Covid-19 pandemic. This is unlikely to be an issue with the ECB, which appears determined to continue fiscal and monetary support for the eurozone until the recovery is well underway. Once that occurs, the ECB can be expected to reduce purchases under its emergency pandemic programme (PSPP), while continuing its traditional QE programme, under which the ECB has been purchasing bonds in the amount of EUR 20 billion/month throughout the Covid pandemic. With the upcoming ECB meeting expected to be a"snoozer", the meeting could well be a non-event for the euro. It has been a good week for the euro, which punched past the symbolic 1.20 level this week for the first time since March 4th. The currency could get a bit of a boost if ECB President Christine Lagarde's comments after the meeting are more optimistic than expected. EUR/USD is testing resistance at 1.2027. Above, there is resistance at 1.2073. On the downside, there is support at 1.1903 and 1.1825
by OANDA
EUR and ECB: Dovish for bonds, but not for EURECB frontloading PEPP purchases isn’t a negative for EUR/USD. It helps to underscore the latest market narrative of tentative stability in core bond yields, in turn taking away support from USD. EUR/USD to move above 1.25 in summer. The main winner from the subsequent stability in core bond markets is EM FX, mainly the high yielders that got hit last month. Frontload PEPP purchases is not bad news for EUR/USD The European Central Bank surprised with the announcement of frontloaded Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) purchases (see ECB Review), but in terms of the dovish impact on underling eurozone assets, this is more a story for the eurozone bond market than the euro itself. As we argued in the ECB Cribsheet, as long as the whole PEPP envelope is not extended, the negative impact on the euro should be limited as this only changes the pace of the bond purchases, but not the overall size. For a more meaningful (negative) impact on the euro, the size of the PEPP envelope should have to be increased. Such a potential move from the ECB is still rather far away and unlikely, in our view. If anything, the ECB decision to lean against the rising bond yields is a positive for EUR/USD as more bond buying helps to underscore the very latest market narrative of the tentative stability in core bond yields. This in turn is (a) negative for USD, the key beneficiary of the UST sell-off in February (largely because it triggered a positioning squeeze in G10 and EM currencies) and (b) positive for cyclical FX and also for EUR/USD. Moreover, the fact that the ECB language is now less downbeat (‘’risks have become more balanced’) has also helped to offset any dovish impact from frontloading the PEPP purchases on the euro. Constructive EUR/USD outlook We reiterate our bullish EUR/USD view. Not only does today’s ECB decision help to limit the key USD tailwind of late (sharply rising UST yields), but as the eurozone economy starts to recover in the second quarter (with the pace of vaccination set to increase), EUR/USD should start moving higher, further helped by the deeply negative US front-end real rates (note: US CPI should push above 3.5% during 2Q). We thus expect EUR/USD to move above 1.2500 this summer. EM FX the big beneficiary from ECB attempt to stabilise the bond market The big winner from the ECB's decision to front-load PEPP purchases should be Emerging Market FX. This FX segment was under material pressure in February as the UST sold off. But now, with another hint at stability in the core bond market, EM FX will be given some more breathing room. With most of the EM currencies trading in undervalued territory and local EM bond markets selling off throughout February, this now offers good entry points – mainly for EM high yielders which got particularly exposed via the bond channel during the February sell-off. The expected rise in EUR/USD is also a favourable factor for the low yielding Central and Eastern European FX, which should benefit from the EUR/USD overlay. We continue to see CZK as the most attractive currency in the region as the Czech National Bank remains hawkish (and should hike rates twice this year), the currency is undervalued vs EUR and the Czech current account should remain in surplus this year. Original Article: think.ing.com By Petr Krpata, CFA, Chief EMEA FX and IR Strategist at ING. think.ing.com Content Disclaimer: The information in the publication is not an investment recommendation and it is not an investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes without regard to any particular user's investment objectives, financial situation, or means. Read more: think.ing.com
by ING_Think
1
Sell GOLD! NOW!Although many people are just looking for when to BUY gold, it is in a downtrend on H4. In addition, it is currently facing serious resistance, which we expect to push back the price. The price will be able to form new bottom at1667! The minimum stop must be above 1764. This allows for a current ratio of 2: 1. For a better ratio, you can go on a shorter period and look for an reversal. If you have questions about how to trade this or another situation, contact us! To support us, like and comment!
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by ForexTrendline
6
The raptureIt's always similar to someone falling from the 25th floor. Everything is fine for 24 floors. Ignored. You can hear flies, then noobs all get excited and push each other to bet he will die after he hit the ground. Actually not even, they hesitate, they are afraid, they want to be real sure, so they wait till he is declared dead at the hospital and rush to bet he will die, hey never know maybe he ressusitates magically and then dies again? 10/10 bet. Source for the central bank assets (check figure 6 you will like it): www.yardeni.com Central banks throw money around, and the indices go up weeks later. Investors sell their Yen, and the indices go up weeks later. So dumb. Daddy, what were you doing when there was free money being thrown around? Your dad is a loser son. If it's too good to be true, you live in idiocracy, this is why it's too good to be true, we live in idiotland. No worries about getting out fast when it collapses, most "investors" are too stupid to run for the exits lmao, they will be aware of the collapse years or maybe even decades later. No need to worry about the wheelchair "competition". Screw it, Yen selloff collapsing, it's over good luck bagholders I am selling full position and buying more juicy s&ps.
TVC:GOLD
by MrRenev
1
Euro showing rare winning formThe euro has rebounded on Tuesday, erasing most of the losses seen on Monday. Currently, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1901, up 0.46% on the day. The euro had its way with a wobbly US dollar late in 2020 and pushed close to the 1.23 line in late February. However, the euro has been under sustained pressure since then. EUR/USD is barely hanging onto the 1.19 level and finds itself close to lows not seen since November 2020. The euro has posted considerable gains on Tuesday, but will this prove to be a blip in the currency's downturn? With the US dollar getting a strong boost from higher US Treasury yields, attention has shifted to the ECB policy meeting on Thursday. The bank is none too happy about the rise in US Treasury yields, which, along with higher oil prices, has led to eurozone yields moving higher as well. The eurozone economy remains fragile due to the Covid pandemic, with the vaccine rollout proceeding slowly and strict health restrictions still in place across much of the bloc. Higher bond yields means higher borrowing costs, which could impede an economic recovery. ECB President Christine Lagarde hasn't said much about the jump in eurozone yields, perhaps being careful not to shake up the markets. Still, the market wants answers on whether the ECB will have a nonchalant stance to higher eurozone yields, as the Fed has shown in its relaxed response to higher US yields. If ECB policymakers voice their concern about higher yields, we can expect the euro to lose ground.  We are not seeing any change in the weekly support and resistance lines. On Monday, EUR/USD put strong pressure on support at 1.1832 but the line held strong. The pair has rebounded higher on Tuesday, giving this support level some breathing room. Below, there is support at 1.1.753, which has held since mid-November 2020. If EUR/USD breaks materially below the 1.1800 line, the pair could fall into 1.16 territory. On the upside, there is resistance at 1.2052, followed by 1.2193.  
by OANDA
EUR analysisToday we are considering the possibility of buying EUR, but against JPY. Here we are in a definite upward trend of the larger periods and the opportunity to enter at the moment is from H1. In the last few days we have seen a corrective movement that has been broken. This allows the price to continue to 130.23. In order to have the strength to continue this movement, the price must not go below the bottom. If you have questions about how to trade this or another situation, contact us! To support us, like and comment!
Long
by ForexTrendline
1
Forex might actually become interesting soonForex got nerfed hard in the 2008-2009 patch but it might be about to become overpowered. 0-1200 elo players still play it a lot as the result is the same no matter what: defeat. It's super interesting to look at their positions on IG, FXCM, Oanda I think, myfxbook. 0-1200 elo traders keep going against the trend, and you can see the average winner of the 10% with trend being maybe 60 pips and average loser of 90% that are against the trend -300 pips. What's super interesting is how there is barely any trend in this flat semi random market and consistently going against the trend like an idiot STILL LOSES MONEY. Some examples of dead FX pairs After 2011, USDCHF volatility dropped enormously, it was by far the lowest in 50 years. There was almost more volatility under Bretton Woods. And the price action of course just look at it, it is bad. EURUSD was also quite pointless but after getting smaller and smaller to the point of this disgusting trend down we had it rallied strongly and it might keep increasing in such volatility It is also very hard to predict moves, gurus say the opposite, all fx funds left but gurus know better sure. You would need more leverage (risk) to get sizeable winners, which is bad, and you will never end up running a mega winner because they just don't exist at all. Anyone that claims they predicted EURUSD direction & tops / bottoms in 2018-2019 is better than 100% of hedge funds and will easilly became a billionaire, so stop talking and show me the money if you're so good and not just lucky. Another one Delusional dreaming retail gamblers and their gurus might say "This is how markets work you have to adapt" (gosh this sounds so dumb why don't you jump in a volcan and adapt to no oxygen and 5000°C?) as well as "If it does not trend trade resistances reversal" 1- Moves are smaller and smaller anyway you get very little out of it, and you have to pay spreads, or comms (and spreads widen a lot) 2- Resistances are wide your entry to stop need to be very big for a small win 3- Where do you get out? Even if it reacts it will be very choppy and you never know when the reaction is over 4- It literally takes a few minutes to see this resistance BS does not work Let's hear it And at this point the guru knows that: 1- People that look for "education" want to be "taught", not go check themselves, they won't bother analyse all this crap 2- People that know what they are doing are not going to waste up to hundreds of hours checking laborious and stupid troll stuff 3- People that know what they are doing also know that even if they do the grind, the guru will take a big dumb smile and claim "ah but you forgot to add the rsi" or some painfully dumb bs, this can go forever, plus the victims won't listen to you, etc, so pointless, I'd rather play chess against a pigeon No one can be a full forex speculator, it can only be something on the side at certain times. I'm an FX trader but I post more about other markets, and keep taking trades in other areas more and more. But maybe it will improve "“I’m not expecting any real volatility spike, but it was so low for so long that the probability it increases is getting bigger,” said Andreas Koenig, head of global FX at Amundi Asset Management." Countertrend thinking "how low can it go", but maybe he is right. After markets contract they end up exploding and expanding. www.reuters.com So this is what we have: What could happen soon adding volatility: The ECB made a mistake of negative rates to boost the economy years ago which did not work but they won't admit their mistake. It took years for Japan to give up. Maybe Europe gives up soon, or goes into deep negative rates. It will all go boom soon anyway. France has the presidential elections in 2022 AND will be presiding Europe this will be the biggest event in more than 10 years and obviously impact the dead FX market so if they don't wake up now they will wake up next year! You can find the official paper for the EU undemocratic bureaucratic council presidency going to zero no one knows about here: eur-lex.europa.eu It's better on wikipedia honestly. Can't wait for the euro to be abandonned and to short sell the usd hyperinflation. Give me trends bigger than a ridiculous 2% that lasts for 10 days, give me reversals of more than a stupid 0.70%. FX might not be glamourous champagne investing now, but if you start getting into it and studying now when it wakes up from his slumber you will have a big advantage versus even the pros that join in the following years.
by MrRenev
3
Cup & Handle Continuation Here we see a possible cup and handle continuation on grounds that the 0.5 fibonacci retracement level holds as an entry point within the ABC channel correction and the cups support. Target will be 1.0. However, if the 0.5 fibo level is pierced as a confirmed breakout we can presume a double top from the two peaks at the 1.0 level with the target being 0.00. Essentially my bias is long from the 50.0 level but until then the bear run continues. Good luck and follow me for more! P.S, this time last year around March, EURCAD had a fantastic bull run; repeat?, maybe.
Long
by UnknownUnicorn4565572
Inflation Rate Roundups Trade Safe - Trade Well Regards, Michael Harding 😎 Chief Technical Strategist @ LEFTURN Inc. RISK DISCLAIMER Information and opinions contained with this post are for educational purposes and do not constitute trading recommendations. Trading Forex on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to invest in Forex you should consider your knowledge, investment objectives, and your risk appetite. Only trade/invest with funds you can afford to lose.
TVC:DXY
by Michael_Harding
2
ridethepig | EUR Market Commentary 28.01.2021📌 ridethepig | EUR Market Commentary 28.01.2021 In this position, we have managed to build a solid floor at the 1.207x area and as widely expected Buyers fought like a lion to defend their jurisdiction. The ECB on the wires attempted to talk down the currency via threatening room for rate cuts, classic jawboning from Knot in attempt to provide shelter. They will not cut again and time to call bs; here actively buying dips in the euro - this charming position is proof of the wonderful beauty of technical analysis. Looking back to the initial start of this move, it has taken a lot longer for the flow to play out than I would have liked, however, nothing has changed and there is no reason to be alarmed. If we lose the floor and breach 1.200x, then we KNOW we are WRONG and need to reassess the view. Fed artificial dollar devaluation is here to stay and a move back towards the top of the range is the path of least resistance. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
11
ridethepig | EURGBP Finding a Floor📌 ridethepig | EURGBP Finding a Floor After the preparatory manoeuvre, passive sellers are keeping a close eye on the 0.882x ABC target and already starting to cover. Sharp Buyers were aware of this and made the transition to attempt a base formation. With ECB / FED now cleared there is the customary inventiveness to continue with the rally. What we are trading here is the expectation of BOE cuts and calling bluff on ECB holding pattern. On the GBP side, we have been given a data from Johnson for March where kids will return back to school. Taking it with a pinch of salt once more and recommend resisting temptation to park in GBP. BOE has room to cut rates and with Brexit impact starting to enter into play, the flows will become clearer. Technically taking 0.893x will open the floodgates for a momentum gambit towards the highs, while to the downside 0.887x/0.882x area will continue to be the loading zone. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
10
ridethepig | EURGBP for ECB📌 ridethepig | EURGBP for ECB Now that we are trading back at the lows in the range in EURGBP, the game is roughly level going into ECB today and we can begin to look for positions once more. In a situation which is very similar to the previous flow that we played from the pivot in December. Continuing to build EUR exposure at 0.885x and looking for ECB & BOE to start diverging in expectations from today onwards. BOE are going to play the whole -ve rate endgame with wonderful precision and genuine artistry. Pound devaluation is the way to go in my opinion. A quick recap of ECB expectations for today: > Global inflation is starting to show signs of creeping higher ( see the explanation ) so expecting Lagarde to be slightly bullish EUR on inflation , neutral on growth, no changes in rates and the usual 'watching the currency closely'. Looking to make use of the 0.885x lows for a move back towards our 0.900x pivot and 0.922x highs. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
15
ridethepig | EUR Market Commentary 26.01.2021📌 ridethepig | EUR Market Commentary 26.01.2021 An important chart update for euro here, which does not require to create a decision, but shows how price rolls forwards undr the direction of price drivers. It advanced quite far and cramped the highs. Finally there is another opportunity for loading on the 1.212x pivot. For the risk cocktail we have Conte resignation , covid varients , vaccine execution and delays to Biden stimulus all entering into play. These are unusual markets and volatility expansions (e.g. yesterday) are still showing that the USD remains the safest place to park capital when the storm hits. I am still of the view that we will clear initial targets , but clearly there are risks entering into the picture and trading pragmatically is important with risk in the air. For those holding longs in this swing, it's time to sit on our hands with a lottery ticket , trail our stops and take of the exposure. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming on these short-term flows 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
11
Lagarde needs to place a lid on the Euro If there is a time for a currency to be relatively weak, it's during recessionary periods. A stronger currency entails a rougher time for goods and services to be exported out of the country as those exports are more expensive due to the stronger currency. This is currently the case for the Euro. From August last year to the latter part of 2020, the EUR/USD fluctuated between 1.16 and 1.19 before shooting past 1.20 at the end of November due to vaccine positivity. It sits comfortably above 1.20, consolidating between 1.205 and 1.233. Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), has a dilemma on her hands: how to contain the strength of the Euro due to positive sentiment while fighting deflation concerns? ECB needs more than interest rates Theoretically, it could be argued that the ECB has used up all their ammunition when it comes to monetary policy. With Interest Rates at 0% for the past four years, alongside the Coronavirus pulling on both sides, with lockdowns forcing businesses to close and consumers to save, a liquidity trap may be underway. The strength of the Euro also gives the ECB limited room to move rates lower. This harks back to the Bank of Japan's issue during the financial crisis, with analysts predicting disinflation, therefore boosting the Yen, thus boosting fears of inflation - a never-ending cycle. Only useful tool is asset purchases – however, it may have a side effect of boosting the Euro further The ECB has purchased over 1.85 Trillion Euros worth of assets during the wake of the Pandemic. However, we may see a situation unfold similar to that of the Fed and US Equities – where the Fed's unwavering support for the US economy has had the side effect of boosting US equities. Further purchases may see an influx of capital in European Equities, increasing the demand for the Euro. Since the strength of a currency is relative, some analysts predict the only way for the ECB to escape the cycle of a strengthening currency and deflationary concerns is through outperforming the Fed when it comes to asset purchases. Salman Ahmed, global head of Macro at Fidelity International, stated that "In currencies it's the relative game that matters," and that "You can argue that the ECB has been very aggressive in its policy, but has it been more aggressive than others? If the ECB wants to get the Euro down, they will have to outgun the Fed – there is no other way."
by BlackBull_Markets
1