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ridethepig | DAX into the elections and beyond📍 DAX gaining tempo The previous 2020 macro map, outdated as it may be, contains the overarching manoeuvre which we can now describe as a compounding play. It is as follows: my models started to pick up on the alarm bells towards the back-end of last year, and hinted of DAX making revisiting 10,000. The compounding is going to be of great importance, when we realise the 5th wave is still (yet) to complete. By the time private clients began to call outguessing the Green / CDU coalition and 'Green New Deal' it was too late... and there now occurs two dominos: if DAX retests the lows in a panic move, and sellers force through a retest of the lows for a second time and then the new economic cycle can begin in 2021/2022. Moreover, for those trading the single currency, we are going to get major updates here as we enter into 2021 and digital currencies come through the backdoor. This fact paves the way for perpetual bonds which are on the way to act as a trojan horse for government defaults is of utmost concern. The brutal bear market rally in the euro is not going to help german equities over the coming months, and the ECB knows it which is why they are signalling distress signals louder than usual.
OANDA:DE30EURShort
by ridethepig
5
ridethepig | Buy EURGBP expecting GBP outflows📝 EURGBP While the single currency block continues to work together on Covid the UK is as divided as ever, from Scottish independence to the North / South divide. Faster Macro data has started to tick back down in Europe and the UK. We are going to see a decline in activity once more into November and with Brexit still to come this will hurt the UK more in the immediate term. On the technical side, the break of 0.915x is encouraging for bulls and opens up in the near-term a test of 0.927x. I would also like to leave core positions running for the inevitable test of parity. Keep a close eye on 1.294x for those in GBPUSD. Thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
3
ridethepig | EURUSD Strategy Notes 📌 EURUSD Market Commentary 2020.10.22 A possible reversal between sellers and buyers taking profits After Eurobonds Positional Play , buyers might consider the exchanging manoeuvre from 1.20xx a good level to take profits since these levels are dangerous waters for those wanting to add longs. However, the recapture of 1.18xx is apparent, and noteworthy of how RM accounts have driven the entire leg higher from 1.16xx. Sellers simply play a protection of resistance here at 1.185/1.186 and have a chance to win control as there will be unaware buyers still loading here at these levels thinking a blue wave is positive for markets. To the downside, a test of the 1.153x is still pending and clearly visible that it is worthy of mention. Remember, whenever retail sees that a position is not working initially, they will aim to liquidate and put the remaining capital into a better swing. Unfortunately, all too often, tactics are used to trigger the liquidation and can become very unpleasant. I mea the sort of situation we are seeing around U.S. elections is threatening for another sharp increase in volatility and we have covid to put the cherry on top.
Short
by ridethepig
11
$EURUSD - NO FLASEBREAK SIGNAL BUT CLASSIC CONSOLIDATIONEURUSD didn't make a daily close below the trendline to produce a false break signal, and ojectively it has in fact signals some more. Looking at the head and shoulder topping structure while assuming the September top is in, this is a classic consolidation pattern of tight trading ranges forming a harmonious ABC move, so and I'd expect a solid turn at next key levels. 1.1880 is a closed eyes sell imo with room to average up above. In small already but may shed some tomorrow and sell better levels. Fundamentally, latest PMI's showing improvement in the manufacturing but services rebound has been very slow. Covid is ravaging through Europe, UK and USA and others at staggering rates of daily new cases and there will be another demand shock to global markets at the rate this is going. Governments will have no choice but to impose stricter measures on social distancing, mask wearing etc and this will have a lasting effect on the services sectors, which for many economies is by far the largest contributor to a countries GDP. The ripple out effects can be far-reaching and and governments and ECB will have to provide more economic relief and stimlus. Whilst the Federal Reserve is likely to sit on their hands and hoping inflation would just run hot from here, the ECB is already faced with low inflation pressures and the sudden EUR strength will not help them be any closer to creating some moderate inflation. I think this gives them room to take actions that will slightly weaken the EUR whilst providing more monetary support to fiscal measures.
Short
by doejistar
ridethepig | French Equities into the election and beyond📌 An update to the map for French Equities By now we should have all positioned our portfolios defensively and be sure that in doing so by covering we are ensuring that our opponent will not try a steam roller! Think back to the diagram and follow the flows.... We have a typical position here in which French Equities can be sold actively. Thanks to the economic slowdown, covid and election risk, we can quickly bring about the attack of our targets. Sellers have already completed the difficult part of the move, but we must not go to sleep on the job! For the sake of the discussions here, encourage all those who are trading the moves down in equities to start sharing their charts and views in the comments and we can further the conversation and developments.
TVC:CAC40Short
by ridethepig
4
EURUSD - Election Map📅 October 18th EURUSD - Election Map Eurobonds positional play The manoeuvre chosen by Europe to consolidate the debt cannot be criticised. It was inevitable since the Maastricht Treaty that in order to keep the currency alive they would eventually need to obtain with it 'federalised debt' in order to compete in the Premier league with US and China. Once Covid forced Merkel et al to 'bend the knee', euro buyers obtained control on the break of 1.09x and played an impulsive move towards 1.20x. Of course this move was not without venom and pressed against the ECB. An impulsive move, but one with a deeper meaning. Markets and bookies have completely miss-priced (i) the odds of a dem clean sweep being +ve for risk assets and (ii) spillovers associated with further lockdowns from covid chapter II. In many ways Covid has revealed how far the West has fallen behind in some places. However, no matter how healthy or greener the grass may look on the other side to some right now, a Biden victory will still face THE SAME CHALLENGES . Dems are throwing everything into winning and forgetting that even if they inherit the office they have done so at the cost of huge promises to public sector unions and etc which is a real problem for them. Expecting EURUSD to come under a lot of stress in order to protect from increased election risk, lockdowns and contractions in globalisation / capital formations in the immediate term. For those only interested in adding longs, this 1.15/1.14 area is where we should be hell-bent on loading full sized positions. To the topside invalidation of the 'B' in this ABC corrective swing will come from a break above 1.183x. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Short
by ridethepig
8
The Euro is GOING TO ZERO! Bulls will be wiped out!You can skip the intro if you don't want to read a rant. ******************************************* Why are they all so lazy??? These "traders", especially those that sell signals. They drop a coinflip idea with 3 lines and that's it. Oh and people love it. Most of their ideas are so bad and those not terrible are just statistical normal distribution. All these day & swing gamblers have such contempt for people working real jobs, producing something. It is amazing. The casino ta gamblers are coming to get rich quick AND to be lazy. They expect this to be EASIER???? Really? Not HARDER?!! EASIER??!!! No wonder cringe speeches going "you make money sitting on your hands" have so much success "don't over analyse and over trade you make money being patient letting it work for you". Oh you mean "work as little as possible be as lazy as can be sit on your hands". How to get gullible clients. It's so obvious they are telling them what they want to hear... Hey institutions pay hundreds of ivy league analysts with full time 9 to 5 jobs to do research but you know, they are just #emotional that's why. They have analysis paralysis. All you need is the right automated signal system 😆 I really wish someone could answer me. Why do they hate working so much? Why do they hate thinking so much? What is going on in their so wonderful lives? What are the amazing things they are doing that are so much better? There is few people outside. What are they doing? Please, I really want to know what wonderful life I am missing out on! If I look in houses will I see zombies standing still in a trance? That's it right? This really breaks the simulation immersion for me. Bad realism. Damn I could become anything I wanted and I just became a gambler. ******************************************* Idea starts here: The Euros try their hardest to keep the euro underpriced compared to the dollar. It will be harder for them now that the usd is getting bazook'ad & does not have higher rates than the euro. What do I look for in those operations that I started getting into in early 2020 as a secondary strategy? I'd say I am a systematic trader but sort of in between systematic and discretionary. Every setup is different... Some of what I look for (only part of it): 1- Price action: I get in early but I don't want to get in too early (unless I go for a reversal which is an entirely different thing and they never turn into trends and I rarely stay in long) ==> Is it too early? Are there lower highs and lows? Is there momentum behind it? No, yes, yes. It is going. 2- Technical analysis: Is the previous trend over? Are we in a pullback? New trend down according to TA. And emm common sense. 3- PA, TA, guessing the order book without access to it (CME thought), FA: Where is the next liquidity area, what target can I expect? It has a long way to go. I entered with a stop loss smaller than retail day traders, and my target is weeks ATR away. I hope it won't retrace much, but there is not much reason for it to go back up. That I know of. I am letting it retrace by several times my risk because I really want to stay in. I really hope I get a big winner out of it. It's not that different after all. Just because the chart pattern looks similar does not mean there is a no brain crystal ball method of magically spotting every currency or stock that will be the next big winner. You have a 20 hole punchcard... This takes alot of research. Not just eyeballing a 1 hour chart and flipping a coin with your scammy ea. It cracks me up tbh. Not only do they do 0 research but they won't even bother taking 5 minutes to check the daily, weekly, monthly charts? 😂 When you are a legit trader you do not need to check the monthly because you know it by heart but they obviously have no clue what it looks like. We are snipers. Not drunk clowns with a machine gun. They will fade away like the previous ones, and the ones before, and the ones even before. We will still be around. Also, back to the EURUSD, we know that euro politicians with the exception of Sweden love to nuke their economies, and look forward to bribe naive scared electors with stimulus. It is so absurd but many believe in it (the covid fear mongering) and those that see it as absurd say nothing because of a type of herd mentality / responsability dilution that is well studied by psychologists. At least I am calling it absurd on the internet so I'm doing something hey? No need to go riot in the street and become a martyr that would be too much. And I only put a mask when I have to. #doingmypart Ridiculous fascist rules are going to continue. Incompetent european administrations are progressively shutting down parts of the economy again. NAH BUT SERIOUSLY I AM IN THE 5TH DIMENSION HERE RIGHT? Am I dreaming? So in conclusion, not that hard for the euro to skyrocket down by a few percentage points, both in undervaluation and in valuation directly.
Short
by MrRenev
6
RidetheMacro| EURUSD Market Commentery 2020.09.23 🎈 Given the absence of important fundamental statistics today, the pressure on the euro was also limited in the first half of the day. After an unsuccessful attempt to break below the monthly lows, the pair returned back to the opening level. 🔑 From a technical point of view, nothing has changed. Bears will continue to focus on breaking through and fixing below the low of 1.1635. If the pair easily reaches the level, it may drop to new support levels of 1.1600-1.1550 and 1.1535. If the price returns to 1.1770, the buyers will become more active. However, if the quote goes above 1.1770, it may jump to 1.1820.⚠ 🌡 Thus economists upwardly revised the situation in the German economy. It is expected that further growth will be no less active than in the summer period. as the GDP drop in the second quarter was less than expected. 📍 However, the worsening epidemiological situation will shape the control measures and social distancing that could be imposed later. Moreover, if the EU and the UK fail to sign an agreement 🔴, a new trade war may break out. 📍 As far as the labor market is concerned, the number of unemployed people in Germany in 2020 is expected to rise to 2.7 million compared to 2.3 million last year. In 2021, the indicator could fall to 2.6 million. 📌 German consumers currently show two directions. There is the direction of a high willingness to spend, while at the same time the willingness to save is still much higher than prior to the crisis. since the end of 2019, the savings ratio of German households has more than doubled, to 20% in the second quarter. according to ECB study, the increase in the savings ratio in the entire eurozone is mainly driven by so-called forced, ie involuntary, savings. While this would imply that there is lots of pent-up demand once the economic situation stabilizes, the fact that wages dropped significantly in the second quarter suggests that the role of precautionary savings could be more important than suggested by the ECB study. In Germany, nominal wages dropped by 4% YoY in the second quarter on the back of short-term work schemes and the lockdown measures. EURUSD Another Ridethemacro
by Ridethemacro
Will the ECB reduce the value of the EURO?Eyes are on ECB president Christine Largarde tomorrow to see if she will echo her colleague’s concerns at the bank’s policy meeting on Thursday, as ECB policymakers warn that if the currency keeps appreciating it will weigh on exports, drag down prices and intensify pressure for more monetary stimulus, holding back on the Euros economic recovery. I am not expecting further reduction of interest rates just yet, but instead a firm word that actions will be taken if necessary, which could lead to bearish momentum. Continued upside dollar momentum is also a added factor, with recent risk off sentiment indicating a further shift of assets from equities to currencies So far it seems investors are attempting to price in Largarde attempt at reducing the euro /usd rate, with a break of the flag formation , allowing a great opportunity for a potential short on the re-test with excellent risk reward.
Short
by RaphFX
ridethepig | EURGBP Market Commentary 2020.09.16📌 A quick update here for those trading the flows in EURGBP (yes a change of scenery from the cable battlefield). To maintain the uptrend buyers must defend on their outpost. Rightly so, this is a tempting support level to buy as buyers have to prevent the elegant threat from sellers to breakdown and reclaim the 0.90xx handle. In spite of Brexit, the main impact comes on GBP rather than EUR and for those reasons this leg is still being driven from the overarching Pound flows. Another three barrel bluff from Johnson and we are at the mercy to the House of Lords although unlikely they can defend this one. No-deal Brexit looks certain, the cross here can launch to the topside in a +/- 10% move as sterling has to weaken. Adding longs on dips into 0.915x/0.913x for the swing into 0.931x and beyond. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
4
ridethepig | EURGBPThe exchanging combination between Euro and British Pound continues: Diagram 1 Here we are dealing with the capture of the lows, when we successfully trapped our opponent at 0.830 live together . All the pound buyers are having to face up to the disappointment that the said Oven ready deal is cheerfully the most damaging attack on the UK economy. In this position, a simple loading on a pullback towards 0.915x will win the swing. Buyers have their eyes on 0.989x as worthy of interest, it would not be completely farfetched to see a test of parity if (when) there is no-deal. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
7
ridethepig | EuroThe ECB as a weakness Two possibilities exist for the terrain ahead, one for the continuation or one for the breakdown. This very much amusing position from a markets perspective stems from the initial Eurobonds positional play. The position is reached as a touchstone for the fact in the thesis. We have already covered the macro and explained the fundamentals in play so we shall now cover that here today. Instead we shall consider the bear case and understand the conditions in play, namely: (a) the presence of a breakdown (b) a monetary vocal defence from Lagarde which could be directly attacked as weakness in the currency Our swings so far have played out favourably. Although this time the decision is more challenging, the weaknesses Lagarde sent has opened up the downside and sellers can now threaten a retest of support levels at 1.15 - 1.14. Just a threat, the diagonal support breach is toying with the idea and it is quite understandable, indeed the dollar has come along way in such a short period of time and the risks are no longer idiosyncratic to the US as cases sky rocket in Europe. Buyers have shown up but for the time being I am going to bring things closer to home and pull back on the bullish euro view. We are at the edge of the board and a continuation although is technically in play towards 1.225x - 1.250x it will be hard to manoeuvre with a round of risk-off. Combining a pullback and leveraging continuation at 1.14 / 1.15 would be the winning move. Consider selling a breakdown next week or trailing longs very aggressively. Logical analysis concludes that a pullback is in play as there is definitive weakness on the monetary side in Europe. As usual thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Short
by ridethepig
7
EUR/USD Uptrend support line intactHello traders, EUR/USD is trading above an uptrend support line that has been accompanying the pair since mid May, making higher highs and higher lows. It is also worth mentioning that the pair is trading above all its main moving averages. The up trend is supported by slightly hawkish Lagarde's speech last week and dovish FOMC, and that is making the fundamentals between the two currencies narrower than before. Long positions are safe as long as the pair is trading above the medium term up trend support today at 1.1760, and the critical support at 1.1690. Next resistance level/bulls target is at 1.1965 followed by 1.2010. Good luck
Long
by RamziAbouAbdallah-CMT
2
ridethepig | Stoxx 50📌 Eurostoxx 50 is in question here and we have a good illustration of the ABC outpost. The main target 3,489 is still open for a test but a breakdown here will seal it for the year. In a nutshell, this is a chart speculating that we are in the very early days of the "C" leg down. It is the same opening move in play for German Equities, DAX: This leg down in European Equities will be considered painful for the late buyers; the weakness of the real economy is shown via the following charts. Unemployment Claims: US 2's 5's: Sharp speculators are adopting a wait-and-see policy, the fate of the moves in Eurostoxx depends on the range settlement. Sellers breaking through 3,200 will 'protect' the highs and because of the technical damage done, the flows will finally commit towards +/- 2,475. As usual...thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
EShort
by ridethepig
1
ridethepig | CAC40📌 A short update on French Equities that are also full of dramatic events. The nature of the down cycle came after the infamous leg we played to the topside and began profit taking. How to spot an early discovery of the flows? The diagram clarifies the relationship between the ending of wave 5 and the beginning of the initial 'A' leg with Covid. This change we played with more weight together in DAX which was pinned at the highs. Here is the brief reminder in DAX: Since we know we are in-between an ABC corrective leg the little inner flows can be played however we want because we know we are protected from the powerful macro direction. Targets: 4,200 and 3,600 before anything else is resolved to the topside would be very useful for trading the next cycle up in 2021/2022. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
TVC:CAC40Short
by ridethepig
2