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Dax daily: 16 Jul 2020Yet another great prediction. If you've read our analysis yesterday and traded it accordingly, we congratulate you for great profits. As we predicted, the price had an initial push lower to closed the gap, which correlated with past VPOC. This was the level which had double significance for buyers who stepped in to take the price to 12 882 and even broke out this resistance. This one functioned to suppress further bullish momentum and Dax quickly returned to retest its importance. The price was oscillating up and down, just to close the day on the same level and formed the VPOC slightly above it. Important zones Resistance: 12 882, 13 119 Support: 12 592 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases 13:45 CEST - ECB Main Refinancing Rate + Monetary Policy Statement 14:30 CEST - ECB Press Conference 14:30 CEST - USA - Retail Sales & Unemployment claims Today's session hypothesis Today's session opened below 12 882. Market participants will most likely attempt to retest yesterday's close as it correlates with the S/R zone and the VPOC too. This is the area where we'll need to monitor the price action to further establish directional bias. Dax is slowly aiming higher and if the continuation prevails, our bullish target lays up at 13 119. Stay on alert as we have a day packed with fundamental releases and these could easily rock the boat.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
ridethepig | EURNZD Trade of the Week📌 In spite of the overshoots to the downside, what we are trading here is a sacrifice... the 'sad tale of the last seller'. I love it when sellers go overboard. Threatening to breakdown, without realising the RBNZ has opened the August window for more free money and NZD devaluation via purchases. The euro occupies the throne in G10 which the dollar has vacated.. We all have our eyes on unity on the fiscal side, and a change of scenery! The euro continues its dance. The purpose of this move is to put into action the debt mutualisation / consolidation. But the move versus USD is becoming more difficult as risk approaches the horizon via Covid. In any case... time for a nice late breakfast while positioning in a dangerous situation. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
1
ridethepig | EURGBP Market Commentary 2020.07.08📍 The following position comes after a temporary concession break of 0.90x strong support. After sellers came crumbs away the first time, buyers felt at liberty to allow the breach and trap more on the counterplay. The mysterious trap is coming and buyers wish to occupy the 0.90xx handle rather fast to rule out any cheap entries. At the right moment, we can double down on momentum as price develops . Let me say a few quick words about the birth of this position; it is closely linked to the GBP devaluation via Brexit and the history of protectionism positional plays... First there was the complete control of Downing Street and the Treasury, the "no-deal" hijacking was only possible from this populists. 📌 Then came the stratagem of a covid flank which rendered the first 1.15xx test, sellers could not breakdown without profit taking and loading a second barrel. Moreover, the GBP weakness can be played in the crosses: Admitting the damage of Brexit is worth considering for those still thinking this environment is +ve for GBP. The threat of negative rates would mark the official surrender. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
14
ridethepig | EURNZD July Macro Swing📌 Here tickets are very cheap for those wanting to exploit the NZD weakness via dovish RBNZ. While on the European side, a direct consolidation of the debt, sacrificing Merkel to save the currency. Complex but totally tradable flows. => After the textbook move in EURUSD Euro crosses can almost equalise. In cramped consolidation, you cannot afford to give any easy entries, the false break ruins those soft retail expecting an easy move! Actively looking to build full positions at 1.7325 for the coming weeks and month. A long journey ahead with 1.78 as the main goal, in order to support as best it can the slingshot will move with direction action (instead of a zig-zag).
Long
by ridethepig
2
ridethepig | EURGBP Positional Play📍 EURGBP What are we trading here? A counter any false conceptions that we will see a Brexit deal. All headlines produce an immediate effect for trading: wait patiently and quiet and justify fades: Here the static weakness of GBP can clearly be recognised. Any idea of pullbacks into support will be short-lived. These remain our key loading zones with positional swings! - In this case, Buyers will refuse sellers the freeing breakdown to prevent any cheap entries. A ruthless strategy from Downing Street to avoid any extension flanks, and try rather to operate under the premise of No-deal. The strongest hands will be rewarded; one should hang on to the bearish UK story as long as possible. Thanks all for keeping the support coming with likes, charts, comments and as usual keep the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
15
ridethepig | Golden Cross for EURUSD📍 EURUSD G10 FX Strategy The analysis of this starting position shows us two important triggers to conduct additional entries to our long positions. => A flanking manoeuvre is underway, but also a quick-witted fundamental swing; the euro's transition towards a funding currency and eurobonds saves it from collapse. As long as this expectation exists, the euro is going to have large hands on the bid and sellers cannot administer any traps. 📍 Monthly Chartpack: 📍 EURUSD Technical Flows Whatever may be the case, the macro flows are beautiful, as beautiful as the legend of Hamilton. The trigger in 1790 was Britain, for Angela Merkel its Covid. European politicians needed to use a crisis to apply pressure at critical moments. This contact with federalising the debt is a game changing concept and will give euro strength until the dollar devaluation is exhaust...Getting back in touch with the technical flows and our original starting position which is just as miraculous. Eyes on 1.13 today, taking it with NY will open up 1.15 initial macro targets. This should allow sufficient light on further development of the romance in waves. All the more so, since w have already dug deeper into the live flows and revealed the most difficult secret of all, namely the art of when to marry and divorce positions. Thanks for keeping all the support and feedback coming 👍 or 👎 ...
Editors' picks
Long
by ridethepig
36
ridethepig | EUR Market Commentary 2020.06.23📍 EURUSD breaking out of the consolidation/chop and starting to tactically move higher. As you all have noticed, volumes are a lot lighter as markets catch their breath back. The two clashing forces on the risk front remain set to hijack the flows at any time: 1️⃣ an increasing R0 / case numbers and; 2️⃣ re-openings / economic surprises. Overshoots on the European PMIs front this morning will be enough to trigger the final momentum leg. For those tracking the live flows in FX, invalidation in the current leg higher would come from a close below the 🔑 1.115x support in EURUSD. Thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, charts, questions, 👍or 👎 !!
Long
by ridethepig
3
ridethepig | EURSEK ST Micro Flows 2020.12.06We are entering into short-term technical flows for the weekly closing range after Fed flows come to an end. The growing concerns over rising virus cases will skyrocket over this weekend, expecting a flooding of negative news from mainstream media which will put Western European countries back into the crosshairs. For the technicals, SEK is trading at a very low value the 2020 macro range called at the end of last year. Jurisdictions are clearly defined on both sides with support located at 10.4x and no interest in chasing this move any higher than 10.6x resistance .
Long
by ridethepig
ridethepig | EUR Fast Flows 📍 Road to mastering 1.150x of Eurobonds play (schematic representation of the macro swing) 1️⃣ Counter the false conception that every single risk-off flow has to produce an immediate USD effect; waiting moves and underlying MT / LT game changer positioning on the macro front are also totally justified now that Europe are making steps towards mutualising the debt! 2️⃣ Recognise the idea of a 'second wave' in the virus as being the key one in this positional swing! With this in mind, struggle to prevent freeing moves beyond 1.15 / 1.16 this year and in doing so any dips from disorganisation of our opponents, should be strategically bought. 3️⃣ Have tremendous respect for the Fed devaluation strategy; avoid any premature moves to counter downside (outside of EM and GBP) and try rather to operate under the watchword of momentum . 4️⃣ Aim for total mobility to the topside in 2021, but not for the individual mobility of every single cross. 5️⃣ Get used to considering the control of the bid as a " matter of importance "; do not let unaware sellers at the lows be decisive. 6️⃣ What is important for the macro positional flow is not the attack, nor even the barrier, but only compression .
Long
by ridethepig
2
ridethepig | Remaining Short EURSEK A timely update to the EURSEK chart with 2020 flows entering into play as widely anticipated. Lets start by reviewing the concerning Macro Map in the diagram: In the longer term, positional swings come down to a struggle between patience on the one hand and greed tendencies on the other. In this all-encompassing battle, economic strategy, though important in itself, will always need the presence of technicals in order to strive for mobility. I am expecting sooner or later the free-fall to begin and get rid of the early dip buyers. Good luck all those on the sell side. As usual thanks for keeping your support coming with likes, comments and etc!
Short
by ridethepig
Updates: ECB fundamentals in Long In this par, EUR/USD is show us in the morning that we see a awesome fundamentals that European Central Banks said in the morning that it would increase bond purchases to provide the hardest-hit economies in the Eurozone with a boost after being bottened by the coronavirus crisis. So, guys, this is a bullish fundamentals of what EUR it's their mean. So, in this technical analysis, EUR/USD in H4 timeframe is above of the EMA 8, so, also EUR is represent a rejection of the candlestick wicks bearish, so, this is a bullish scenario of what the force in EUR we found up demand zone, and institutionals consider EUR bull run. So, firstly, as reccomendaton assume your loss and close all position in short, because EUR/USD in H1 timeframe has force to continue up and indicators are bullish. This is a panaromic in Daily timeframe, remember, we can see a possible formation of double top in H4 timeframe, and there, its may be a bearish scenairo after this awesome news of what ECB speaking otday in minutes.
Long
by harisonhbn9718
ridethepig | EURCHF Long-Term Marco Map📍 EURCHF On the CHF side, we had started to see a lot of plumbing from SNB at the lows 1.06xx-1.05xx and for those following the flows it was the 🔑 level we were to tracking in Q1. It is no surprise that we are reaching the end of ' Phase 1 ' and constituting a very powerful base that we can now use as an attacking weapon. The purpose of the sweep was to shake the tree and put out of action early buyers and late sellers. The concept of Eurobonds is more than enough to capture the highlights of this establishment, a consolidation that will undoubtedly be endurable. Well done all those riding this pig, a move that will be difficult to defend against. A nice late breakfast while EURCHF trades levels not seen since 2019. Although CHF is going to benefit from risk off flows versus USD, I am bullish on the euro and could not step against this train. A break of 1.10 will send the message.
Long
by ridethepig
1