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EURUSD 10 Sep, 2020 - Volatility Day ahead?So, ECB today. What to expect? Volatility seems is the only guaranteed outcome for today trading expectations. before press conference we face seems 2 scenarios: 1. Fiber trying to get everyone bullish atm aiming for resistance level at 1.1867-1.1881. Expected scenario with slow rise and then fast falling? 2. Market can fall under 1.18-1.1785 and smash down 1.1752 before your can say Mom! Unexpected atm scenario by most of the market participants. after press conference can be whatever you can imagine... :))) Not legal and financial advice; any information provided here is only the personal opinion of the author. Cheers!
by AlpacaBlack
ridethepig | Momentum Gambit with ECB 📌 The best move, since the idea of Eurobonds and an early development of the rally is to continue working against structural dollar weakness. The +/- 200 tick pullback from 1.20xx highs in EURUSD to current levels is an attractive level for us to start adding bullish exposure. As will become clear, buyers are in full control on the macro direction and sharp speculators are playing the euro as a funding currency. The social idiosyncratic problems in the West are not going to be covered here today although are playing a major roll in the election cycle and USD. The way the dollar has completely paralysed Fed is in plain sight for all to see. And now, I ask you; what tolerance will the current administration have for a weaker dollar into the elections versus a weaker stock market? You get my point... an honourable (???) Powell bending the knee to Trump with a typical CBanker desperation move to create artificial weakness in USD and hold stocks is managing to create a wave of problems in Europe. As much as they would like to, there is little chance of ECB intervening at these levels, meaning for trading and speculator purposes we can squeeze and squeeze until they finally cough which wont be for another +10%. We will cover the ECB together in detail although here preparing for a very dismissive Lagarde this week which will reverse any considering intervention. A strong move here would be very useful as we can complete the MT and LT breakout targets from earlier in the year. I am expecting bulls to come out with their trump card, still eyeballing the same 1.25xx targets before year-end and 1.30xx / 1.35xx are on the menu for 2021. What we are learning from this move in the euro is firstly how to distinguish between genuine and false fundamental moves. After clearing targets at 1.20xx it attracted both profit taking and also some early birds looking to outguess a hand from ECB on the currency. For this week, what we are tracking is the deprivation of those looking who jumped the gun to give us energy to move higher. The pullback they have laid over the past week should also be kept in context with the long-term macro view: For the techincal flows, the 1.186x is finally getting attention. But just at that point, it is hard to predict that the radius of ECB volatility expansion wont send us into the opposing camp at 1.170x. Hence the textbook way to play this, is to load on a momentum gambit through 1.186x or load in the market manoeuvre zones. Invalidation for bulls comes below 1.170x as it will unlock 1.15xx. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
14
ridethepig | EUR Market Commentary 2020.08.29📌 In spite of the summer lull, EURUSD continue to hold and buyers are threatening to win the 1.20xx handles. Sharp speculators understood the powerful attacking force of debt mutualisation, but the icing on the cake comes from Fed artificially flushing USD. The king continues its march lower. To maintain the buy side in EURUSD is pragmatic. Any direct attempt to step against this flow will be compromised while we remain above 1.178x and 1.161x strong pivots with 1.14xx the stronger level on a quarterly basis. An interesting move will be to complete 1.225x and 1.250x this year before consolidating sufficiently. The moral of the story, is stay long EURUSD. We have discussed the fundamental coverage in detail, there are other things which warrant attention from speculators, I can hear you asking, what things are these then? ...Positioning! This next diagram demonstrates how we can advance and capitalise on expectations transitioning to facts. On a very high level the theme here appears, with a holistic view of the macro direction. This resembles a move towards 1.28x and 1.42x as investors make the most of the advantage, and the 'freer manoeuvrability' of the fiscal side. As usual thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
20
ridethepig | CAD Market Commentary 2020.04.08Commodity currencies reached the 🔑 value levels to load for this final leg down in risk. As mentioned here last week 0.62xx was the level to load in AUDUSD and NZDUSD. I also loaded an entire short CAD portfolio with USDCAD testing the 1.395x outguessing a negative outcome tomorrow. In best case scenario we will see a ‘handshake’ which wont be enough to offset this huge demand shock, I will keep an ear on the wires with live coverage resuming as usual from today. I am closely tracking for the final sweep to the lows in Oil, for those following in the previous strategies we are entering into fill or kill territory with the final $15 targets: Monthly For all those wanting to dig deeper and build a basket around short CAD I would recommend unless you know what you are doing to start your positions with a hedge, outguessing the flop tomorrow will trigger a major sell off in the black stuff. Thanks as usual for keeping the support coming with likes, comments and etc!
Long
by ridethepig
2
ridethepig | EURGBP Market Commentary 2020.08.14EURGBP finding a bid from 0.900x as widely expected since earlier in the month. Here actively adding longs on the pullback for a move towards 0.915x highs. Little Britain are still nowhere near out of the woods yet with the 'oven ready’ Brexit still to come later this year. For those wondering why not Cable? It’s very tough to time a bottom in the dollar with the artificial devaluation underway, flows will eventually exhaust hence recommending caution in GBPUSD. My preferred vehicle for expressing a weaker GBP and profiting from the economic bondage is EURGBP. On the technical side, those with a background in waves will know we are preparing for an impulsive wave targeting the 0.908x and 0.914x minimum flow. Eyes on the close today, a lot of talk making the rounds of a pound clearout. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
6
EURJPY's Last KissDuring past weeks Euro has been gaining against most major currencies. The main factor that drove this rally was the impulse of ECB to stimulate and restart the economy with decent monetary package. Since then, the sentiment remained bullish and EURO had faced long-term high which it easily broke. Now the market needs to gain momentum again and on this occasion the chances of possible long position arises. As the price created new high, we were able to draw a Fibonacci retracement levels from the last swing and thus expect next price of interest for turnover. Very important levels are 50% and 38,2% of Fibonacci, which are also in confluence with the long-term resistance (now support) at $124.22, which is respected since 5th of June and has already accounted for 6 successful retests, which makes it really strong. With the ECB monetary policy consideration it is likely, that the price will continue to surge and at least retests the last swing high. To make the setup more probable, a supportive trend line (M15) can be drawn to make the timing of the trade even more accurate. Signals: - 50% & 38,2% Fibonacci levels of retracement - Long-term broken resistance, now support to be retested - Positive ECB sentiment - Expected break of the corrective M15 trend line Despite the positive ECB sentiment, it is necessary to think about the macro fundamentals, which set the value in longer time period!
Long
by gatsby01
ridethepig | EURGBP Market Commentary 2020.07.22🔸 An 'ingenious' saving move from Europe and finally they are able to get debt mutualisation through. It will be very bullish for EURUSD in the Medium and Long term horizons, although the ST will become a lot more cloudy via Covid as we enter into the Autumn / Winter for the Northern Hemisphere. I prefer to play EUR on the crosses and vs. GBP is a no-brainer considering that no-deal brexit is still to come and counter any short-lived GBP strength. I am fortunate enough to be dealing with an audience who can take a hint and understand when not to believe politicians. It went: Next came: And now we are entering into a whole game, because EURGBP is a good example of how even in FX both sides can align to the same direction and define the central strategy. Here the following line remains that Brexit is giving up competitiveness and market access (at least in the Short-term we can agree whatever your view is on the matter) which opens up the need for currency devaluation. As long as the UK side makes soft, it makes it difficult to build a constructive view on GBP. The latest ‘track and trace’ systems entering into the picture will weigh heavy on consumer confidence and ensure GBP will remain soft. Actively tracking the same loading zones with 0.905x to add longs in EURGBP and 1.270x to load shorts in GBPUSD. A previous example was last year with the elections, but this is no less imaginative. In a situation where both fundamental sides align, EURGBP will be able to turn the 0.91xx handle into a new base for activity which we can handle in an almost virtuoso fashion. As usual thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
4
EUR/USD as everyone's eyes are on Brussels,RETRACEMENT?FA: Currently, EU leaders are discussing the possibility of a Corona Virus Stimulus package; with there being a standstill between the frugal four (Austria,Netherlands,Sweden,Denmark) and the "Club Med" members (Greece,Italy and France) whom want the stimulus to be treated as a grant but the frugal four disagree. As discussions go on, and the lack of news in the USA and States facing further closures- we could see a strong bullish turn around for the Euro against the dollar. (USA) Expansionary fiscal measures set to reach expiry at the end of July- with talks being held this week on what the next move is- we should see some strong movement. TA: EUR/USD has been strong and has rallied quite strong to break a long term downward trend to turn bullish, however, it is now approaching resistance, so what's next? Resistance is also placed at a HTF support thus now resistance level, as well as being a key Fibonacci level- therefore we can expect a retracement- unless Brussels decides otherwise Can be treated as a short trade with stops placed outside of the green area; with it hedged with a break-out trade If the euro breaks that region and the further resistance, it could approach levels not seen since 2014 -Megalodon Whales (Rahim) Enjoyed Charting this for you all,Please SHARE/LIKE/COMMENT and you are welcome to give your feedback or post your own charts below :) TVC:DXY FX:EURUSD FX_IDC:EURUSD TVC:SPX
by BoSukas
EURUSD Sell 500 Pip Opportunity EURUSD still in a downwards channel at a very strong resistance area 1.1400 to 1.1450. Entry: 1. Pending sell at 1.14 with short stop loss above last high, or 2. Confirmation of up trend line break to the bottom with a daily bear candle closed under. Indicators: 1. Currency pair at a strong weekly pivotal point and resistance area. (Look Left Rule: Market has bounced off of this area for the past few years). 2. Main direction still downwards. 3. Weekly and Daily RSI overbought, bull exhausted. Take Profit Levels at past support areas Good luck trading! Charles V CVFX Management Trading made simple
Short
by cvfxwealth
Dax daily: 16 Jul 2020Yet another great prediction. If you've read our analysis yesterday and traded it accordingly, we congratulate you for great profits. As we predicted, the price had an initial push lower to closed the gap, which correlated with past VPOC. This was the level which had double significance for buyers who stepped in to take the price to 12 882 and even broke out this resistance. This one functioned to suppress further bullish momentum and Dax quickly returned to retest its importance. The price was oscillating up and down, just to close the day on the same level and formed the VPOC slightly above it. Important zones Resistance: 12 882, 13 119 Support: 12 592 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases 13:45 CEST - ECB Main Refinancing Rate + Monetary Policy Statement 14:30 CEST - ECB Press Conference 14:30 CEST - USA - Retail Sales & Unemployment claims Today's session hypothesis Today's session opened below 12 882. Market participants will most likely attempt to retest yesterday's close as it correlates with the S/R zone and the VPOC too. This is the area where we'll need to monitor the price action to further establish directional bias. Dax is slowly aiming higher and if the continuation prevails, our bullish target lays up at 13 119. Stay on alert as we have a day packed with fundamental releases and these could easily rock the boat.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO