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EURUSD - Election Map📅 October 18th EURUSD - Election Map Eurobonds positional play The manoeuvre chosen by Europe to consolidate the debt cannot be criticised. It was inevitable since the Maastricht Treaty that in order to keep the currency alive they would eventually need to obtain with it 'federalised debt' in order to compete in the Premier league with US and China. Once Covid forced Merkel et al to 'bend the knee', euro buyers obtained control on the break of 1.09x and played an impulsive move towards 1.20x. Of course this move was not without venom and pressed against the ECB. An impulsive move, but one with a deeper meaning. Markets and bookies have completely miss-priced (i) the odds of a dem clean sweep being +ve for risk assets and (ii) spillovers associated with further lockdowns from covid chapter II. In many ways Covid has revealed how far the West has fallen behind in some places. However, no matter how healthy or greener the grass may look on the other side to some right now, a Biden victory will still face THE SAME CHALLENGES . Dems are throwing everything into winning and forgetting that even if they inherit the office they have done so at the cost of huge promises to public sector unions and etc which is a real problem for them. Expecting EURUSD to come under a lot of stress in order to protect from increased election risk, lockdowns and contractions in globalisation / capital formations in the immediate term. For those only interested in adding longs, this 1.15/1.14 area is where we should be hell-bent on loading full sized positions. To the topside invalidation of the 'B' in this ABC corrective swing will come from a break above 1.183x. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Short
by ridethepig
8
The Euro is GOING TO ZERO! Bulls will be wiped out!You can skip the intro if you don't want to read a rant. ******************************************* Why are they all so lazy??? These "traders", especially those that sell signals. They drop a coinflip idea with 3 lines and that's it. Oh and people love it. Most of their ideas are so bad and those not terrible are just statistical normal distribution. All these day & swing gamblers have such contempt for people working real jobs, producing something. It is amazing. The casino ta gamblers are coming to get rich quick AND to be lazy. They expect this to be EASIER???? Really? Not HARDER?!! EASIER??!!! No wonder cringe speeches going "you make money sitting on your hands" have so much success "don't over analyse and over trade you make money being patient letting it work for you". Oh you mean "work as little as possible be as lazy as can be sit on your hands". How to get gullible clients. It's so obvious they are telling them what they want to hear... Hey institutions pay hundreds of ivy league analysts with full time 9 to 5 jobs to do research but you know, they are just #emotional that's why. They have analysis paralysis. All you need is the right automated signal system 😆 I really wish someone could answer me. Why do they hate working so much? Why do they hate thinking so much? What is going on in their so wonderful lives? What are the amazing things they are doing that are so much better? There is few people outside. What are they doing? Please, I really want to know what wonderful life I am missing out on! If I look in houses will I see zombies standing still in a trance? That's it right? This really breaks the simulation immersion for me. Bad realism. Damn I could become anything I wanted and I just became a gambler. ******************************************* Idea starts here: The Euros try their hardest to keep the euro underpriced compared to the dollar. It will be harder for them now that the usd is getting bazook'ad & does not have higher rates than the euro. What do I look for in those operations that I started getting into in early 2020 as a secondary strategy? I'd say I am a systematic trader but sort of in between systematic and discretionary. Every setup is different... Some of what I look for (only part of it): 1- Price action: I get in early but I don't want to get in too early (unless I go for a reversal which is an entirely different thing and they never turn into trends and I rarely stay in long) ==> Is it too early? Are there lower highs and lows? Is there momentum behind it? No, yes, yes. It is going. 2- Technical analysis: Is the previous trend over? Are we in a pullback? New trend down according to TA. And emm common sense. 3- PA, TA, guessing the order book without access to it (CME thought), FA: Where is the next liquidity area, what target can I expect? It has a long way to go. I entered with a stop loss smaller than retail day traders, and my target is weeks ATR away. I hope it won't retrace much, but there is not much reason for it to go back up. That I know of. I am letting it retrace by several times my risk because I really want to stay in. I really hope I get a big winner out of it. It's not that different after all. Just because the chart pattern looks similar does not mean there is a no brain crystal ball method of magically spotting every currency or stock that will be the next big winner. You have a 20 hole punchcard... This takes alot of research. Not just eyeballing a 1 hour chart and flipping a coin with your scammy ea. It cracks me up tbh. Not only do they do 0 research but they won't even bother taking 5 minutes to check the daily, weekly, monthly charts? 😂 When you are a legit trader you do not need to check the monthly because you know it by heart but they obviously have no clue what it looks like. We are snipers. Not drunk clowns with a machine gun. They will fade away like the previous ones, and the ones before, and the ones even before. We will still be around. Also, back to the EURUSD, we know that euro politicians with the exception of Sweden love to nuke their economies, and look forward to bribe naive scared electors with stimulus. It is so absurd but many believe in it (the covid fear mongering) and those that see it as absurd say nothing because of a type of herd mentality / responsability dilution that is well studied by psychologists. At least I am calling it absurd on the internet so I'm doing something hey? No need to go riot in the street and become a martyr that would be too much. And I only put a mask when I have to. #doingmypart Ridiculous fascist rules are going to continue. Incompetent european administrations are progressively shutting down parts of the economy again. NAH BUT SERIOUSLY I AM IN THE 5TH DIMENSION HERE RIGHT? Am I dreaming? So in conclusion, not that hard for the euro to skyrocket down by a few percentage points, both in undervaluation and in valuation directly.
Short
by MrRenev
6
RidetheMacro| EURUSD Market Commentery 2020.09.23 🎈 Given the absence of important fundamental statistics today, the pressure on the euro was also limited in the first half of the day. After an unsuccessful attempt to break below the monthly lows, the pair returned back to the opening level. 🔑 From a technical point of view, nothing has changed. Bears will continue to focus on breaking through and fixing below the low of 1.1635. If the pair easily reaches the level, it may drop to new support levels of 1.1600-1.1550 and 1.1535. If the price returns to 1.1770, the buyers will become more active. However, if the quote goes above 1.1770, it may jump to 1.1820.⚠ 🌡 Thus economists upwardly revised the situation in the German economy. It is expected that further growth will be no less active than in the summer period. as the GDP drop in the second quarter was less than expected. 📍 However, the worsening epidemiological situation will shape the control measures and social distancing that could be imposed later. Moreover, if the EU and the UK fail to sign an agreement 🔴, a new trade war may break out. 📍 As far as the labor market is concerned, the number of unemployed people in Germany in 2020 is expected to rise to 2.7 million compared to 2.3 million last year. In 2021, the indicator could fall to 2.6 million. 📌 German consumers currently show two directions. There is the direction of a high willingness to spend, while at the same time the willingness to save is still much higher than prior to the crisis. since the end of 2019, the savings ratio of German households has more than doubled, to 20% in the second quarter. according to ECB study, the increase in the savings ratio in the entire eurozone is mainly driven by so-called forced, ie involuntary, savings. While this would imply that there is lots of pent-up demand once the economic situation stabilizes, the fact that wages dropped significantly in the second quarter suggests that the role of precautionary savings could be more important than suggested by the ECB study. In Germany, nominal wages dropped by 4% YoY in the second quarter on the back of short-term work schemes and the lockdown measures. EURUSD Another Ridethemacro
by Ridethemacro
Will the ECB reduce the value of the EURO?Eyes are on ECB president Christine Largarde tomorrow to see if she will echo her colleague’s concerns at the bank’s policy meeting on Thursday, as ECB policymakers warn that if the currency keeps appreciating it will weigh on exports, drag down prices and intensify pressure for more monetary stimulus, holding back on the Euros economic recovery. I am not expecting further reduction of interest rates just yet, but instead a firm word that actions will be taken if necessary, which could lead to bearish momentum. Continued upside dollar momentum is also a added factor, with recent risk off sentiment indicating a further shift of assets from equities to currencies So far it seems investors are attempting to price in Largarde attempt at reducing the euro /usd rate, with a break of the flag formation , allowing a great opportunity for a potential short on the re-test with excellent risk reward.
Short
by RaphFX
ridethepig | EURGBP Market Commentary 2020.09.16📌 A quick update here for those trading the flows in EURGBP (yes a change of scenery from the cable battlefield). To maintain the uptrend buyers must defend on their outpost. Rightly so, this is a tempting support level to buy as buyers have to prevent the elegant threat from sellers to breakdown and reclaim the 0.90xx handle. In spite of Brexit, the main impact comes on GBP rather than EUR and for those reasons this leg is still being driven from the overarching Pound flows. Another three barrel bluff from Johnson and we are at the mercy to the House of Lords although unlikely they can defend this one. No-deal Brexit looks certain, the cross here can launch to the topside in a +/- 10% move as sterling has to weaken. Adding longs on dips into 0.915x/0.913x for the swing into 0.931x and beyond. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
4
ridethepig | EURGBPThe exchanging combination between Euro and British Pound continues: Diagram 1 Here we are dealing with the capture of the lows, when we successfully trapped our opponent at 0.830 live together . All the pound buyers are having to face up to the disappointment that the said Oven ready deal is cheerfully the most damaging attack on the UK economy. In this position, a simple loading on a pullback towards 0.915x will win the swing. Buyers have their eyes on 0.989x as worthy of interest, it would not be completely farfetched to see a test of parity if (when) there is no-deal. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
7
ridethepig | EuroThe ECB as a weakness Two possibilities exist for the terrain ahead, one for the continuation or one for the breakdown. This very much amusing position from a markets perspective stems from the initial Eurobonds positional play. The position is reached as a touchstone for the fact in the thesis. We have already covered the macro and explained the fundamentals in play so we shall now cover that here today. Instead we shall consider the bear case and understand the conditions in play, namely: (a) the presence of a breakdown (b) a monetary vocal defence from Lagarde which could be directly attacked as weakness in the currency Our swings so far have played out favourably. Although this time the decision is more challenging, the weaknesses Lagarde sent has opened up the downside and sellers can now threaten a retest of support levels at 1.15 - 1.14. Just a threat, the diagonal support breach is toying with the idea and it is quite understandable, indeed the dollar has come along way in such a short period of time and the risks are no longer idiosyncratic to the US as cases sky rocket in Europe. Buyers have shown up but for the time being I am going to bring things closer to home and pull back on the bullish euro view. We are at the edge of the board and a continuation although is technically in play towards 1.225x - 1.250x it will be hard to manoeuvre with a round of risk-off. Combining a pullback and leveraging continuation at 1.14 / 1.15 would be the winning move. Consider selling a breakdown next week or trailing longs very aggressively. Logical analysis concludes that a pullback is in play as there is definitive weakness on the monetary side in Europe. As usual thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Short
by ridethepig
7
EUR/USD Uptrend support line intactHello traders, EUR/USD is trading above an uptrend support line that has been accompanying the pair since mid May, making higher highs and higher lows. It is also worth mentioning that the pair is trading above all its main moving averages. The up trend is supported by slightly hawkish Lagarde's speech last week and dovish FOMC, and that is making the fundamentals between the two currencies narrower than before. Long positions are safe as long as the pair is trading above the medium term up trend support today at 1.1760, and the critical support at 1.1690. Next resistance level/bulls target is at 1.1965 followed by 1.2010. Good luck
Long
by RamziAbouAbdallah-CMT
2
ridethepig | Stoxx 50📌 Eurostoxx 50 is in question here and we have a good illustration of the ABC outpost. The main target 3,489 is still open for a test but a breakdown here will seal it for the year. In a nutshell, this is a chart speculating that we are in the very early days of the "C" leg down. It is the same opening move in play for German Equities, DAX: This leg down in European Equities will be considered painful for the late buyers; the weakness of the real economy is shown via the following charts. Unemployment Claims: US 2's 5's: Sharp speculators are adopting a wait-and-see policy, the fate of the moves in Eurostoxx depends on the range settlement. Sellers breaking through 3,200 will 'protect' the highs and because of the technical damage done, the flows will finally commit towards +/- 2,475. As usual...thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
EShort
by ridethepig
1
ridethepig | CAC40📌 A short update on French Equities that are also full of dramatic events. The nature of the down cycle came after the infamous leg we played to the topside and began profit taking. How to spot an early discovery of the flows? The diagram clarifies the relationship between the ending of wave 5 and the beginning of the initial 'A' leg with Covid. This change we played with more weight together in DAX which was pinned at the highs. Here is the brief reminder in DAX: Since we know we are in-between an ABC corrective leg the little inner flows can be played however we want because we know we are protected from the powerful macro direction. Targets: 4,200 and 3,600 before anything else is resolved to the topside would be very useful for trading the next cycle up in 2021/2022. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
TVC:CAC40Short
by ridethepig
2
ridethepig | DAX Q2 Macro Chart Buyers of a V shaped recovery constitute a formidable opponent; the purpose of the bounce was not to recover but only to re-balance and rightly so. Of course, retail have another account and while the 11700 highs are holding continue to load thinking everything is roses and business as usual... You see, a sound position has at least 5 waves in the impulse and a double ABC in the retrace. In such circumstances, the short-circuit and its remaining furloughed businesses hardly make a very bullish impression. A bit of a hat trick for @ridethepig after such a battle! .. In any case, if sellers claim back the highs and obstruct any breach the end scenario looks rather miserable. Sadly we will have another leg lower in Global Equities, this will turn out to be the sweep that caused depression and forces capitulation from even the most experienced of hands. In spite of the advanced environment, this chart will demonstrate how and where an advance on the wrong side should and will be punished.
OANDA:DE30EURShort
by ridethepig
5
EURUSD 10 Sep, 2020 - Volatility Day ahead?So, ECB today. What to expect? Volatility seems is the only guaranteed outcome for today trading expectations. before press conference we face seems 2 scenarios: 1. Fiber trying to get everyone bullish atm aiming for resistance level at 1.1867-1.1881. Expected scenario with slow rise and then fast falling? 2. Market can fall under 1.18-1.1785 and smash down 1.1752 before your can say Mom! Unexpected atm scenario by most of the market participants. after press conference can be whatever you can imagine... :))) Not legal and financial advice; any information provided here is only the personal opinion of the author. Cheers!
by AlpacaBlack
ridethepig | Momentum Gambit with ECB 📌 The best move, since the idea of Eurobonds and an early development of the rally is to continue working against structural dollar weakness. The +/- 200 tick pullback from 1.20xx highs in EURUSD to current levels is an attractive level for us to start adding bullish exposure. As will become clear, buyers are in full control on the macro direction and sharp speculators are playing the euro as a funding currency. The social idiosyncratic problems in the West are not going to be covered here today although are playing a major roll in the election cycle and USD. The way the dollar has completely paralysed Fed is in plain sight for all to see. And now, I ask you; what tolerance will the current administration have for a weaker dollar into the elections versus a weaker stock market? You get my point... an honourable (???) Powell bending the knee to Trump with a typical CBanker desperation move to create artificial weakness in USD and hold stocks is managing to create a wave of problems in Europe. As much as they would like to, there is little chance of ECB intervening at these levels, meaning for trading and speculator purposes we can squeeze and squeeze until they finally cough which wont be for another +10%. We will cover the ECB together in detail although here preparing for a very dismissive Lagarde this week which will reverse any considering intervention. A strong move here would be very useful as we can complete the MT and LT breakout targets from earlier in the year. I am expecting bulls to come out with their trump card, still eyeballing the same 1.25xx targets before year-end and 1.30xx / 1.35xx are on the menu for 2021. What we are learning from this move in the euro is firstly how to distinguish between genuine and false fundamental moves. After clearing targets at 1.20xx it attracted both profit taking and also some early birds looking to outguess a hand from ECB on the currency. For this week, what we are tracking is the deprivation of those looking who jumped the gun to give us energy to move higher. The pullback they have laid over the past week should also be kept in context with the long-term macro view: For the techincal flows, the 1.186x is finally getting attention. But just at that point, it is hard to predict that the radius of ECB volatility expansion wont send us into the opposing camp at 1.170x. Hence the textbook way to play this, is to load on a momentum gambit through 1.186x or load in the market manoeuvre zones. Invalidation for bulls comes below 1.170x as it will unlock 1.15xx. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
14
ridethepig | EUR Market Commentary 2020.08.29📌 In spite of the summer lull, EURUSD continue to hold and buyers are threatening to win the 1.20xx handles. Sharp speculators understood the powerful attacking force of debt mutualisation, but the icing on the cake comes from Fed artificially flushing USD. The king continues its march lower. To maintain the buy side in EURUSD is pragmatic. Any direct attempt to step against this flow will be compromised while we remain above 1.178x and 1.161x strong pivots with 1.14xx the stronger level on a quarterly basis. An interesting move will be to complete 1.225x and 1.250x this year before consolidating sufficiently. The moral of the story, is stay long EURUSD. We have discussed the fundamental coverage in detail, there are other things which warrant attention from speculators, I can hear you asking, what things are these then? ...Positioning! This next diagram demonstrates how we can advance and capitalise on expectations transitioning to facts. On a very high level the theme here appears, with a holistic view of the macro direction. This resembles a move towards 1.28x and 1.42x as investors make the most of the advantage, and the 'freer manoeuvrability' of the fiscal side. As usual thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
20