Get started

Ecb

ridethepig | EURGBP Market Commentary 2020.07.08📍 The following position comes after a temporary concession break of 0.90x strong support. After sellers came crumbs away the first time, buyers felt at liberty to allow the breach and trap more on the counterplay. The mysterious trap is coming and buyers wish to occupy the 0.90xx handle rather fast to rule out any cheap entries. At the right moment, we can double down on momentum as price develops . Let me say a few quick words about the birth of this position; it is closely linked to the GBP devaluation via Brexit and the history of protectionism positional plays... First there was the complete control of Downing Street and the Treasury, the "no-deal" hijacking was only possible from this populists. 📌 Then came the stratagem of a covid flank which rendered the first 1.15xx test, sellers could not breakdown without profit taking and loading a second barrel. Moreover, the GBP weakness can be played in the crosses: Admitting the damage of Brexit is worth considering for those still thinking this environment is +ve for GBP. The threat of negative rates would mark the official surrender. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
14
ridethepig | EURNZD July Macro Swing📌 Here tickets are very cheap for those wanting to exploit the NZD weakness via dovish RBNZ. While on the European side, a direct consolidation of the debt, sacrificing Merkel to save the currency. Complex but totally tradable flows. => After the textbook move in EURUSD Euro crosses can almost equalise. In cramped consolidation, you cannot afford to give any easy entries, the false break ruins those soft retail expecting an easy move! Actively looking to build full positions at 1.7325 for the coming weeks and month. A long journey ahead with 1.78 as the main goal, in order to support as best it can the slingshot will move with direction action (instead of a zig-zag).
Long
by ridethepig
2
ridethepig | EURGBP Positional Play📍 EURGBP What are we trading here? A counter any false conceptions that we will see a Brexit deal. All headlines produce an immediate effect for trading: wait patiently and quiet and justify fades: Here the static weakness of GBP can clearly be recognised. Any idea of pullbacks into support will be short-lived. These remain our key loading zones with positional swings! - In this case, Buyers will refuse sellers the freeing breakdown to prevent any cheap entries. A ruthless strategy from Downing Street to avoid any extension flanks, and try rather to operate under the premise of No-deal. The strongest hands will be rewarded; one should hang on to the bearish UK story as long as possible. Thanks all for keeping the support coming with likes, charts, comments and as usual keep the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
15
ridethepig | Golden Cross for EURUSD📍 EURUSD G10 FX Strategy The analysis of this starting position shows us two important triggers to conduct additional entries to our long positions. => A flanking manoeuvre is underway, but also a quick-witted fundamental swing; the euro's transition towards a funding currency and eurobonds saves it from collapse. As long as this expectation exists, the euro is going to have large hands on the bid and sellers cannot administer any traps. 📍 Monthly Chartpack: 📍 EURUSD Technical Flows Whatever may be the case, the macro flows are beautiful, as beautiful as the legend of Hamilton. The trigger in 1790 was Britain, for Angela Merkel its Covid. European politicians needed to use a crisis to apply pressure at critical moments. This contact with federalising the debt is a game changing concept and will give euro strength until the dollar devaluation is exhaust...Getting back in touch with the technical flows and our original starting position which is just as miraculous. Eyes on 1.13 today, taking it with NY will open up 1.15 initial macro targets. This should allow sufficient light on further development of the romance in waves. All the more so, since w have already dug deeper into the live flows and revealed the most difficult secret of all, namely the art of when to marry and divorce positions. Thanks for keeping all the support and feedback coming 👍 or 👎 ...
Long
by ridethepig
36
ridethepig | EUR Market Commentary 2020.06.23📍 EURUSD breaking out of the consolidation/chop and starting to tactically move higher. As you all have noticed, volumes are a lot lighter as markets catch their breath back. The two clashing forces on the risk front remain set to hijack the flows at any time: 1️⃣ an increasing R0 / case numbers and; 2️⃣ re-openings / economic surprises. Overshoots on the European PMIs front this morning will be enough to trigger the final momentum leg. For those tracking the live flows in FX, invalidation in the current leg higher would come from a close below the 🔑 1.115x support in EURUSD. Thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, charts, questions, 👍or 👎 !!
Long
by ridethepig
3
ridethepig | EURSEK ST Micro Flows 2020.12.06We are entering into short-term technical flows for the weekly closing range after Fed flows come to an end. The growing concerns over rising virus cases will skyrocket over this weekend, expecting a flooding of negative news from mainstream media which will put Western European countries back into the crosshairs. For the technicals, SEK is trading at a very low value the 2020 macro range called at the end of last year. Jurisdictions are clearly defined on both sides with support located at 10.4x and no interest in chasing this move any higher than 10.6x resistance .
Long
by ridethepig
ridethepig | EUR Fast Flows 📍 Road to mastering 1.150x of Eurobonds play (schematic representation of the macro swing) 1️⃣ Counter the false conception that every single risk-off flow has to produce an immediate USD effect; waiting moves and underlying MT / LT game changer positioning on the macro front are also totally justified now that Europe are making steps towards mutualising the debt! 2️⃣ Recognise the idea of a 'second wave' in the virus as being the key one in this positional swing! With this in mind, struggle to prevent freeing moves beyond 1.15 / 1.16 this year and in doing so any dips from disorganisation of our opponents, should be strategically bought. 3️⃣ Have tremendous respect for the Fed devaluation strategy; avoid any premature moves to counter downside (outside of EM and GBP) and try rather to operate under the watchword of momentum . 4️⃣ Aim for total mobility to the topside in 2021, but not for the individual mobility of every single cross. 5️⃣ Get used to considering the control of the bid as a " matter of importance "; do not let unaware sellers at the lows be decisive. 6️⃣ What is important for the macro positional flow is not the attack, nor even the barrier, but only compression .
Long
by ridethepig
2
ridethepig | Remaining Short EURSEK A timely update to the EURSEK chart with 2020 flows entering into play as widely anticipated. Lets start by reviewing the concerning Macro Map in the diagram: In the longer term, positional swings come down to a struggle between patience on the one hand and greed tendencies on the other. In this all-encompassing battle, economic strategy, though important in itself, will always need the presence of technicals in order to strive for mobility. I am expecting sooner or later the free-fall to begin and get rid of the early dip buyers. Good luck all those on the sell side. As usual thanks for keeping your support coming with likes, comments and etc!
Short
by ridethepig
Updates: ECB fundamentals in Long In this par, EUR/USD is show us in the morning that we see a awesome fundamentals that European Central Banks said in the morning that it would increase bond purchases to provide the hardest-hit economies in the Eurozone with a boost after being bottened by the coronavirus crisis. So, guys, this is a bullish fundamentals of what EUR it's their mean. So, in this technical analysis, EUR/USD in H4 timeframe is above of the EMA 8, so, also EUR is represent a rejection of the candlestick wicks bearish, so, this is a bullish scenario of what the force in EUR we found up demand zone, and institutionals consider EUR bull run. So, firstly, as reccomendaton assume your loss and close all position in short, because EUR/USD in H1 timeframe has force to continue up and indicators are bullish. This is a panaromic in Daily timeframe, remember, we can see a possible formation of double top in H4 timeframe, and there, its may be a bearish scenairo after this awesome news of what ECB speaking otday in minutes.
Long
by harisonhbn9718
ridethepig | EURCHF Long-Term Marco Map📍 EURCHF On the CHF side, we had started to see a lot of plumbing from SNB at the lows 1.06xx-1.05xx and for those following the flows it was the 🔑 level we were to tracking in Q1. It is no surprise that we are reaching the end of ' Phase 1 ' and constituting a very powerful base that we can now use as an attacking weapon. The purpose of the sweep was to shake the tree and put out of action early buyers and late sellers. The concept of Eurobonds is more than enough to capture the highlights of this establishment, a consolidation that will undoubtedly be endurable. Well done all those riding this pig, a move that will be difficult to defend against. A nice late breakfast while EURCHF trades levels not seen since 2019. Although CHF is going to benefit from risk off flows versus USD, I am bullish on the euro and could not step against this train. A break of 1.10 will send the message.
Long
by ridethepig
1
Birds eye view ... long term EURUSD map=> Here we have the longer term map for EURUSD which shows from a wave perspective that we are looking to form a base at our 1.05-1.06 target areas before resuming the break up. => Since Jan 2017 we have been in a large ABC where the "A" and "B" legs have completed with a bullish flavour. Here we can expect to see another advance similar in magnitude to that of the initial rally last year in 2017 after we have formed the base which will take out the highs in Feb 2018. => A mouthful I know ... to put it simply we are tracking the forming of a LT bottom in EUR by marking the end of wave 2 and continuing the longer term uptrend that started in Jan 2017. => For those in the telegram we have a detailed macro and political post coming for Europe with our end of year reports, including outlooks and expectations for the year ahead. => Good luck to those trading EURUSD in live or for those waiting patiently on the sidelines for the base to form.
Long
by ridethepig
5
ridethepig | EUR Long-Term Macro Map📍 EURUSD Principal rule: Consolidation or 'compacting' for a more politically correct term of debt across Europe is the ONLY way to save the currency. Covid challenged this, and France & Germany combo stepped up to the mark. A complex concept, which regardless of the amount is a step in the right direction and was enough to begin to chip away at some of the longer term macro tail risks. A very good time to update the before and after charts in EURUSD: Here the static weakness of the USD via artificial Fed devaluation is a heavy one that will play out over the following Months and Quarters. Now consider the position in 'DXY' below taken from last year. Greenback sellers have been encouraged and smart hands haven taken advantage of Europe being hijacked via the virus for long-term macro positioning. I am certain that in a few years, nobody will consider surrendering their euros for dollars. The disappearance of dollar dominance will open the way for a new and brilliant development of Europe and - the east.
Long
by ridethepig
3
Euro Strength may be an Achillies heel for exportsThe Euro sees its longest streak in 15 years on the back of Christine Lagarde, announcing that the ECB will provide an extra $1T in stimulus to combat the effects of the Coronavirus. The Euro against the USD has spiked to 1.127 to just under 1.135 on the back of extra stimulus. Pointing to inflation and price stability as concerns, Christine Lagarde stated a “unanimous view that action had to be taken.” However, with over six years of Quantitative easing and negative rates, the Euro’s weakness has benefited its exporters. This may change as the ECB puts its foot down in trying to rescue Europe. History of the Euro post Financial Crisis The European Union was hit hard during the Financial Crisis, with the Annual GDP growth rate dropping to as low as -6%. Europe did experience some GDP growth in the early 2010s, however, quickly reverted back due to the strong Eurodollar. Mario Draghi, ECB’s president at the time, implemented a drastic Quantitative easing program alongside negative interest rates. This gave the European union the boost it needed, with GDP Growth staying positive alongside the Balance of Trade, also staying positive in the following six years. However, there has been a different tone from Lagarde, even before the Coronavirus pandemic. With negative interest rates, investors in the European Union struggled to find yield while the American financial markets were experiencing capital appreciation alongside positive yield. Draghi consistently held that “for rates to be higher in the future, they need to be negative now.” However, with a change of leadership in the ECB at the turn of the decade, Lagarde is seen to take a tepid tone when it comes to negative rates. This was explicitly exemplified during the peak of the Coronavirus. When central banks all around the world were slashing their rates, Lagarde stood firm and kept rates as is. Lagarde is looking at the long-term future of the European Union and is possibly using the current pandemic to spur a change. However, with Lagarde’s new focus on getting out of this real negative rate environment, this may bode detrimental to exporters in Europe. A stronger Euro means it will cost more for buyers of European exports to purchase the Euro, possibly turning around their positive balance of trade. What is the future of the Euro? The Euro Dollar is currently at a key resistance around the 1.15 level, which has not been consistently able to break since quantitative easing and negative rates were implemented in 2014. We need to see if bulls will break this resistance, solidifying markets consensus for a strengthening in the Euro. If it sees a rebound at around this level, we may see a deep contraction to the downside.
by BlackBull_Markets
ridethepig | EUR Market Commentary 2020.06.03EURUSD exploding to the topside as USD comes under further pressure from domestic issues. While I am bullish on the euro more broadly, these latest moves are starting to look stretched above 1.12xx given all the cards that are on the table. Well done all bulls riding what has been so fat a very fast move; we are coming to the end of this initial ‘expectation leg’ around debt mutualisation of the block. Official confirmation coming later today will mark an end of this chapter and unlock a quick pullback for the next ‘fact’ leg which should be bought. On the technical side, tracking closely the 1.104x support as the next loading zone for bulls looking to ride the swings towards 1.15 and 1.20. 🔑 Remember markets trade expectations first and then facts later.
Short
by ridethepig
3
EURUSD outlook before ECBEUR has been the best performer this week as Europe reopens and riots in USA and FED printing USD like there is no tomorrow, we see investors switching to EUR. Today ECB announcement in an hour could provide the next trending move. Currently price broke above 61.8% and now is at 1.12 waiting for ECB decision. If Lagarde announces a hawkish tone with more stimulus for the economy, EUR should spike higher to 1.13 target. But it depends on the press conference. Be mindful that high volatility is always present during data release by Central Banks and spreads get wider. So the best scenario would be to see where the wind blows first before committing money to the trade. Please support the idea and share your thoughts on EURUSD! Good Luck and Stay Healthy!
by Antonio_trader
4
EURUSD - Pull back before next leg higherHello traders, Tracking the EURUSD for a potential pull back from the ascending wedge before the next leg higher. EUR has switched to a bullish bias due to stimulus packages coming in the EU. Parties in German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s coalition wrestled over final details of a huge stimulus package to aid recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the German government coalition ended stimulus on Tuesday without a deal being reached but will continue Wednesday 3 June (today). An initial no-deal tonight may result in some downside on the EUR in the short term before another leg higher. I am waiting for a break of the Ascending wedge formation to enter a short position with a SL above the swing high. Once we have seen a corrective structure lower I will be switching to a LONG position waiting for a break above the iii wave to complete wave 3. Any thoughts or comments please let me know,
by Trading_Tony
3