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ridethepig | EUR Long-Term Macro Map📍 EURUSD Principal rule: Consolidation or 'compacting' for a more politically correct term of debt across Europe is the ONLY way to save the currency. Covid challenged this, and France & Germany combo stepped up to the mark. A complex concept, which regardless of the amount is a step in the right direction and was enough to begin to chip away at some of the longer term macro tail risks. A very good time to update the before and after charts in EURUSD: Here the static weakness of the USD via artificial Fed devaluation is a heavy one that will play out over the following Months and Quarters. Now consider the position in 'DXY' below taken from last year. Greenback sellers have been encouraged and smart hands haven taken advantage of Europe being hijacked via the virus for long-term macro positioning. I am certain that in a few years, nobody will consider surrendering their euros for dollars. The disappearance of dollar dominance will open the way for a new and brilliant development of Europe and - the east.
Long
by ridethepig
3
Euro Strength may be an Achillies heel for exportsThe Euro sees its longest streak in 15 years on the back of Christine Lagarde, announcing that the ECB will provide an extra $1T in stimulus to combat the effects of the Coronavirus. The Euro against the USD has spiked to 1.127 to just under 1.135 on the back of extra stimulus. Pointing to inflation and price stability as concerns, Christine Lagarde stated a “unanimous view that action had to be taken.” However, with over six years of Quantitative easing and negative rates, the Euro’s weakness has benefited its exporters. This may change as the ECB puts its foot down in trying to rescue Europe. History of the Euro post Financial Crisis The European Union was hit hard during the Financial Crisis, with the Annual GDP growth rate dropping to as low as -6%. Europe did experience some GDP growth in the early 2010s, however, quickly reverted back due to the strong Eurodollar. Mario Draghi, ECB’s president at the time, implemented a drastic Quantitative easing program alongside negative interest rates. This gave the European union the boost it needed, with GDP Growth staying positive alongside the Balance of Trade, also staying positive in the following six years. However, there has been a different tone from Lagarde, even before the Coronavirus pandemic. With negative interest rates, investors in the European Union struggled to find yield while the American financial markets were experiencing capital appreciation alongside positive yield. Draghi consistently held that “for rates to be higher in the future, they need to be negative now.” However, with a change of leadership in the ECB at the turn of the decade, Lagarde is seen to take a tepid tone when it comes to negative rates. This was explicitly exemplified during the peak of the Coronavirus. When central banks all around the world were slashing their rates, Lagarde stood firm and kept rates as is. Lagarde is looking at the long-term future of the European Union and is possibly using the current pandemic to spur a change. However, with Lagarde’s new focus on getting out of this real negative rate environment, this may bode detrimental to exporters in Europe. A stronger Euro means it will cost more for buyers of European exports to purchase the Euro, possibly turning around their positive balance of trade. What is the future of the Euro? The Euro Dollar is currently at a key resistance around the 1.15 level, which has not been consistently able to break since quantitative easing and negative rates were implemented in 2014. We need to see if bulls will break this resistance, solidifying markets consensus for a strengthening in the Euro. If it sees a rebound at around this level, we may see a deep contraction to the downside.
by BlackBull_Markets
ridethepig | EUR Market Commentary 2020.06.03EURUSD exploding to the topside as USD comes under further pressure from domestic issues. While I am bullish on the euro more broadly, these latest moves are starting to look stretched above 1.12xx given all the cards that are on the table. Well done all bulls riding what has been so fat a very fast move; we are coming to the end of this initial ‘expectation leg’ around debt mutualisation of the block. Official confirmation coming later today will mark an end of this chapter and unlock a quick pullback for the next ‘fact’ leg which should be bought. On the technical side, tracking closely the 1.104x support as the next loading zone for bulls looking to ride the swings towards 1.15 and 1.20. 🔑 Remember markets trade expectations first and then facts later.
Short
by ridethepig
3
EURUSD outlook before ECBEUR has been the best performer this week as Europe reopens and riots in USA and FED printing USD like there is no tomorrow, we see investors switching to EUR. Today ECB announcement in an hour could provide the next trending move. Currently price broke above 61.8% and now is at 1.12 waiting for ECB decision. If Lagarde announces a hawkish tone with more stimulus for the economy, EUR should spike higher to 1.13 target. But it depends on the press conference. Be mindful that high volatility is always present during data release by Central Banks and spreads get wider. So the best scenario would be to see where the wind blows first before committing money to the trade. Please support the idea and share your thoughts on EURUSD! Good Luck and Stay Healthy!
by Antonio_trader
4
EURUSD - Pull back before next leg higherHello traders, Tracking the EURUSD for a potential pull back from the ascending wedge before the next leg higher. EUR has switched to a bullish bias due to stimulus packages coming in the EU. Parties in German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s coalition wrestled over final details of a huge stimulus package to aid recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the German government coalition ended stimulus on Tuesday without a deal being reached but will continue Wednesday 3 June (today). An initial no-deal tonight may result in some downside on the EUR in the short term before another leg higher. I am waiting for a break of the Ascending wedge formation to enter a short position with a SL above the swing high. Once we have seen a corrective structure lower I will be switching to a LONG position waiting for a break above the iii wave to complete wave 3. Any thoughts or comments please let me know,
by Trading_Tony
3
EUR/USD STRUCTURE DECONSTRUCTED| FUTURE ANALYSIS+FUNDAMENTALS The pair has broken out of the massive falling channel and has reached a major horizontal structure level. The bullish impulse was spectacularly powerful, yet RSI signals that the pair is overbought+the strong level. The two together indicate a necessity of the pullback. The target area of the expected pullback is shown by the circle. This point is interesting for it is an intersection of 3 major support lines. The move up was so powerful, however, that the pullback is likely to be less pronounced. Now, I will lay out briefly the fundamental case for the mid-term stronger Euro. The assessment is based on the size of the relief package issued by the governments and central banks of EU and USA, read the size of the added respective available liquidity. The US government direct stimulus is already about 3 trillion dollars. Plus, the FED has promised unlimited liquidity, serving as the buyer of the last resort for the junk bonds market. A quote from Washington post: "In late February, the Trump administration said it planned to spend $2.5 billion to fight the coronavirus. A month and a half later, President Trump signed off on spending almost a thousand times as much — $2.35 trillion. And that amount doesn’t include the Federal Reserve’s efforts, which are harder to measure but seem likely to blow past the $4 trillion mark." So the US stimulus SO FAR had been 6 trillion. This, while Europe is still trying to agree on 0.5 trillion Euro package. That is yet to materialize. The ECB has added 750 billion Euros of liquidity in the asset purchase program(PEPP). That is 1.25 Trillion Euros. Which is way less that 6 trillion of already available dollars in the US. The comparison is made possible by the fact that the EU and the US economies are of the approximately similar size. So, my point is that there is far more dollar liquidity flooding the market than the euro liquidity right now. And while the EU economy will hurt and badly, now for a couple of months, there will be a purely monetary driver for a more expensive Euro. I say, that the 1.14 level seems to be quite realistic. I will elaborate on the Euro long term fundamentals later in a separate big article, but for now, we might take into the consideration the presence of the objective fundamental force that is driving the euro higher and be looking at the charts having this in mind. Guys, like and subscribe for more market analysis. Also, comment. I appreciate every opinion. Wish you best of luck in your trading.
Short
by ProSignalsFx
12
EURUSD weekly outlookWeekly chart showed a good spike and close through 1.10 and 50SMA. Price reached former highs below 61.8%, showing strong level of resistance. Break of 61.8% opens higher levels to target 1.12 and 1.13. First we could see a pullback to retest broken levels, like 50SMA or even 1.10. ECB meeting this week could create news trends for EURUSD as we wait to see further measure regarding QE and forward guidance. Please support the idea and share your thoughts on EURUSD! Good Luck and Stay Healthy!
by Antonio_trader
3
ridethepig | Eurobonds Positional PlayThe latest news from Germany and France " federalisation of the debt " - a prerequisite for survival of the euro. The trigger for Alexander Hamilton in 1790 was Britain, for Angela Merkel its Coronavirus. So we are gradually getting round to what is an important component in the process of formation in the currency. Like a trojan horse, Eurobonds are being pushed in from the mounting political and geopolitical pressure. The initial 500bn EUR will still require approval from the block, and may not be a huge sum considering a historic crash, however it is an incremental step in a positive direction. It is not really about the effectiveness of the implementation, and this is decided from completely different factors and distribution is not that clear. The isolated highs in USD which we have been tracking illustrates the future direction for the greenback : After the latest news I am switch sides in the short-term bearish view, rather starting to track the breakout to the topside. A move through 1.10xx highs will unlock the topside and put scaffolding around the short-term bullish view. The MT and LT outlook could see us grind all the way back towards 1.20xx in a relatively short period of time. I am certain that in a few years, nobody will consider surrendering their euros for dollars. The disappearance of dollar dominance will open the way for a new and brilliant development of Europe and - the east. Let me say a few more words about the birth of the view; it is closely linked to the collapse of Globalisation... Vaccine optimism is flooding the wires, the dedication of politicians to sell the re-openings is very telling of the extent of damage that has been done. All rainbows and empty promises from the consultations I've had with experts in the field. The following chart shows how devastating the economic damage has been on the US labour market, Equities rallying all the way back in such a short period of time in a V shaped bounce is not an accurate reflection of reality:
Long
by ridethepig
18
ridethepig | The isolated euro The dynamic strength of the block is itching to expand and further in the circumstance that this debt mutualisation is unlocking and making possible federalisation without the UK. SNB's outpost at 1.060x is - at least in the medium term a pivot level that offers full compensation for those investing in the euro as an investment. Buyers can show that political unity and monetary unity will be more keenly effective than any alternative in the next decade. This is because it is clear that Eurobond will be backed by strong demand for the euro which puts the opposing greenback across the Atlantic under severe pressure, and what is more urgent that a devaluation of the dollar?! An examination of the capital flows involved thus gives an undoubted plus to the East over the coming decade. Critical for an evaluation of the issue is the acceptance of the 27, however, the almighty Germany has put their foot down, there is no longer any likelihood of resistance from the dutch. On the technical side, I am actively buying dips towards 1.055x and expect a lot EUR more demand to continue in the coming sessions. To the downside, if sellers somehow managed to penetrate the 1.050x lows I will step aside as it will pull back into play the flash crash towards the 1.030x lows.
Long
by ridethepig
EURUSD - Bullish Momentum Stalling ?The above chart illustrates EURUSD on the 1 hour timeframe. Currently the pair is struggling to develop another bullish impulse wave to the upside as France and Germany proposed a $545 Billion E.U. Corona Virus relief fund to be given out as grants to those negatively impacted from the virus. As noted on the chart if we break below that yellow line around 1.0890, that might signal some further downside. On the other hand if this pair maintains that bullish momentum from the previous upswing, our near-term target should be limited to the top of the current range resistance around 1.0980 Additional Side Notes Unemployment in the UK came was also released and increased to 856.5K for the month of April. Consensus was for only 676.5K On a positive note, the unemployment actually dropped down to 3.9% which is less than the previous month at 4.0% Some analysts are forecasting for 7.2% UK unemployment by year end. Trade Safe - Trade Well Cheers!
by Michael_Harding
#GR10Y - #ECB is BANKRUPT Part 1 #Greece #EURUSD @lagarde @ecbIn the short term, the ECB is still holding out against the capital flight from Greek government bonds, but it is powerless against the capital flight out of the euro. The ECB's new bazooka won't help, Mrs Lagarde. As you can see in the chart, the candy has been sucked and the trader world can see that too. Best regards from Hannover (Lower Saxony) Stefan Bode #GR10Y - #ECB is BANKRUPT Part 1 #Greece #EURUSD @lagarde @ecb
TVC:GR10YLong
by StefanBode
5
Euro/Usd : Price likely to test April low 1.0725 Euro/Usd dropped to the second Fib support 1.0846 as the Germany's court demands justifications for ECB's mass bond buying program . The pair failed to break the 100 day exponential moving average (1.0975) last week ,although price made a high around 1.01017 area . Technically , breaking the 1.0846 short term support,price likely to test the third Fib level 1.0798 and further to the April low around 1.0725 . We have a busy week ahead with plethora of data , ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI later on followed by ECB President Lagarde Speaks on Thursday and the Non Farm Payrolls on Friday . Support 1 : 1.0846 , Support 2 : 1.0798 SSI : 65/35 (Buyers/Sellers) Trend (short term) - Down Trend (Medium term) - Range Major Resistance : 1.0975 ( 100 day exponential moving average)
Short
by Alremeithi
2
ridethepig | EUR Market Commentary 2020.04.27A healthy pullback on Friday and this morning with some USD buyers broadly taking profits. Well done all those that caught the initial target into 1.076x, a flawless selloff from the "Worm in the Apple". There is some hope making the rounds across the continent for re-openings which has provided the relief in this bounce. More fairy-dust than substance in my books as the rebound in risk (and hence EUR) will have to come from hard facts in the data from the core and periphery performance over the coming months ahead. How quickly consumers return to business as normal will be an important one to track, as will the potential for a second leg in the virus. I'm still sitting short euro and happy to scale some more back in at these levels as risk has now been paid for in the previous round of profit taking...For those following from the technical conversations around Recycling positions to cover costs of entry (recommend digging into the chart archives for more on this one). For the technicals invalidation of the bearish short-term view comes only with a breach of the 1.090x handle. While we remain below the 1.06 & 1.05 lows are exposed and vulnerable... Thanks as usual for keeping the likes, comments and charts coming!
Short
by ridethepig
4
#PT10Y -#ECB is BANKRUPT Part 5 #Portugal #EURUSD @lagarde @ecbIn the short term, the ECB is still holding against the capital flight from portugal government bonds, but it is powerless against the capital flight out of the euro. The ECB's new bazooka won't help, Mrs Lagarde. As you can see in the chart, the pig is shaved , and the trader world can see that too if resistance at 1,60 falls. Questionable regards from Hannover (Lower Saxony) Stefan Bode #PT10Y -#ECB is BANKRUPT Part 5 #Portugal #EURUSD @lagarde @ecb
TVC:PT10YLong
by StefanBode
1