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EURUSD weekly outlookWeekly chart showed a good spike and close through 1.10 and 50SMA. Price reached former highs below 61.8%, showing strong level of resistance. Break of 61.8% opens higher levels to target 1.12 and 1.13. First we could see a pullback to retest broken levels, like 50SMA or even 1.10. ECB meeting this week could create news trends for EURUSD as we wait to see further measure regarding QE and forward guidance. Please support the idea and share your thoughts on EURUSD! Good Luck and Stay Healthy!
by Antonio_trader
3
ridethepig | Eurobonds Positional PlayThe latest news from Germany and France " federalisation of the debt " - a prerequisite for survival of the euro. The trigger for Alexander Hamilton in 1790 was Britain, for Angela Merkel its Coronavirus. So we are gradually getting round to what is an important component in the process of formation in the currency. Like a trojan horse, Eurobonds are being pushed in from the mounting political and geopolitical pressure. The initial 500bn EUR will still require approval from the block, and may not be a huge sum considering a historic crash, however it is an incremental step in a positive direction. It is not really about the effectiveness of the implementation, and this is decided from completely different factors and distribution is not that clear. The isolated highs in USD which we have been tracking illustrates the future direction for the greenback : After the latest news I am switch sides in the short-term bearish view, rather starting to track the breakout to the topside. A move through 1.10xx highs will unlock the topside and put scaffolding around the short-term bullish view. The MT and LT outlook could see us grind all the way back towards 1.20xx in a relatively short period of time. I am certain that in a few years, nobody will consider surrendering their euros for dollars. The disappearance of dollar dominance will open the way for a new and brilliant development of Europe and - the east. Let me say a few more words about the birth of the view; it is closely linked to the collapse of Globalisation... Vaccine optimism is flooding the wires, the dedication of politicians to sell the re-openings is very telling of the extent of damage that has been done. All rainbows and empty promises from the consultations I've had with experts in the field. The following chart shows how devastating the economic damage has been on the US labour market, Equities rallying all the way back in such a short period of time in a V shaped bounce is not an accurate reflection of reality:
Long
by ridethepig
18
ridethepig | The isolated euro The dynamic strength of the block is itching to expand and further in the circumstance that this debt mutualisation is unlocking and making possible federalisation without the UK. SNB's outpost at 1.060x is - at least in the medium term a pivot level that offers full compensation for those investing in the euro as an investment. Buyers can show that political unity and monetary unity will be more keenly effective than any alternative in the next decade. This is because it is clear that Eurobond will be backed by strong demand for the euro which puts the opposing greenback across the Atlantic under severe pressure, and what is more urgent that a devaluation of the dollar?! An examination of the capital flows involved thus gives an undoubted plus to the East over the coming decade. Critical for an evaluation of the issue is the acceptance of the 27, however, the almighty Germany has put their foot down, there is no longer any likelihood of resistance from the dutch. On the technical side, I am actively buying dips towards 1.055x and expect a lot EUR more demand to continue in the coming sessions. To the downside, if sellers somehow managed to penetrate the 1.050x lows I will step aside as it will pull back into play the flash crash towards the 1.030x lows.
Long
by ridethepig
EURUSD - Bullish Momentum Stalling ?The above chart illustrates EURUSD on the 1 hour timeframe. Currently the pair is struggling to develop another bullish impulse wave to the upside as France and Germany proposed a $545 Billion E.U. Corona Virus relief fund to be given out as grants to those negatively impacted from the virus. As noted on the chart if we break below that yellow line around 1.0890, that might signal some further downside. On the other hand if this pair maintains that bullish momentum from the previous upswing, our near-term target should be limited to the top of the current range resistance around 1.0980 Additional Side Notes Unemployment in the UK came was also released and increased to 856.5K for the month of April. Consensus was for only 676.5K On a positive note, the unemployment actually dropped down to 3.9% which is less than the previous month at 4.0% Some analysts are forecasting for 7.2% UK unemployment by year end. Trade Safe - Trade Well Cheers!
by Michael_Harding
#GR10Y - #ECB is BANKRUPT Part 1 #Greece #EURUSD @lagarde @ecbIn the short term, the ECB is still holding out against the capital flight from Greek government bonds, but it is powerless against the capital flight out of the euro. The ECB's new bazooka won't help, Mrs Lagarde. As you can see in the chart, the candy has been sucked and the trader world can see that too. Best regards from Hannover (Lower Saxony) Stefan Bode #GR10Y - #ECB is BANKRUPT Part 1 #Greece #EURUSD @lagarde @ecb
TVC:GR10YLong
by StefanBode
5
Euro/Usd : Price likely to test April low 1.0725 Euro/Usd dropped to the second Fib support 1.0846 as the Germany's court demands justifications for ECB's mass bond buying program . The pair failed to break the 100 day exponential moving average (1.0975) last week ,although price made a high around 1.01017 area . Technically , breaking the 1.0846 short term support,price likely to test the third Fib level 1.0798 and further to the April low around 1.0725 . We have a busy week ahead with plethora of data , ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI later on followed by ECB President Lagarde Speaks on Thursday and the Non Farm Payrolls on Friday . Support 1 : 1.0846 , Support 2 : 1.0798 SSI : 65/35 (Buyers/Sellers) Trend (short term) - Down Trend (Medium term) - Range Major Resistance : 1.0975 ( 100 day exponential moving average)
Short
by Alremeithi
2
ridethepig | EUR Market Commentary 2020.04.27A healthy pullback on Friday and this morning with some USD buyers broadly taking profits. Well done all those that caught the initial target into 1.076x, a flawless selloff from the "Worm in the Apple". There is some hope making the rounds across the continent for re-openings which has provided the relief in this bounce. More fairy-dust than substance in my books as the rebound in risk (and hence EUR) will have to come from hard facts in the data from the core and periphery performance over the coming months ahead. How quickly consumers return to business as normal will be an important one to track, as will the potential for a second leg in the virus. I'm still sitting short euro and happy to scale some more back in at these levels as risk has now been paid for in the previous round of profit taking...For those following from the technical conversations around Recycling positions to cover costs of entry (recommend digging into the chart archives for more on this one). For the technicals invalidation of the bearish short-term view comes only with a breach of the 1.090x handle. While we remain below the 1.06 & 1.05 lows are exposed and vulnerable... Thanks as usual for keeping the likes, comments and charts coming!
Short
by ridethepig
4
#PT10Y -#ECB is BANKRUPT Part 5 #Portugal #EURUSD @lagarde @ecbIn the short term, the ECB is still holding against the capital flight from portugal government bonds, but it is powerless against the capital flight out of the euro. The ECB's new bazooka won't help, Mrs Lagarde. As you can see in the chart, the pig is shaved , and the trader world can see that too if resistance at 1,60 falls. Questionable regards from Hannover (Lower Saxony) Stefan Bode #PT10Y -#ECB is BANKRUPT Part 5 #Portugal #EURUSD @lagarde @ecb
TVC:PT10YLong
by StefanBode
1
ridethepig | EUR Market Notes 2020.04.22As long as risk sentiment remains negative, USD will remain with an underlying bid. We are starting to see calmer waters on the FX board as euro begins to tread carefully inside this 1.08 handle. I must say I was surprised at the lack of selling interest yesterday after the Oil crash and Equities beginning to show signs of following through, there is definitely something coming on the political side for Europe its just a matter of when rather than if, after all it is the only way to save the currency. For now, European countries are still far apart on Eurobonds (in particular Germany) meaning it will take further pressure on the currency to force Merkel to bend the knee. Happy to add more shorts on any rallies into 1.089x loading zone and look for a main target at 1.05xx. For those wondering about how to play the momentum leg, a very tradable break of 1.076x support is still on the menu today.
Short
by ridethepig
4
#IR10Y - #ECB is BANKRUPT Part 4 #Ireland #EURUSD @lagarde @ecbIn the short term, the ECB is still holding against the capital flight from Irish government bonds, but it is powerless against the capital flight out of the euro. The ECB's new bazooka won't help, Mrs Lagarde. As you can see in the chart, the fish is eaten, and the trader world can see that too if 1,77 falling. Best regards from Hannover (Lower Saxony) Stefan Bode #IR10Y - #ECB is BANKRUPT Part 4 #Ireland #EURUSD @lagarde @ecb
TVC:IE10YLong
by StefanBode
1
#IT10Y - #ECB is BANKRUPT Part 3 #Italy #EURUSD @lagarde @ecbIn the short term, the ECB can still fight against the capital flight from Italy government bonds, but it is powerless against the capital flight out of the euro. The ECB's new bazooka won't help, Mrs Lagarde. As you can see in the chart, if 3,00 and later 3,85 falls, everything is done and dusted - the trader world will see that too. Look at RSI on monthly base!!! Best regards from Hannover (Lower Saxony) Stefan Bode #IT10Y - #ECB is BANKRUPT Part 3 #Italy #EURUSD @lagarde @ecb
TVC:IT10YLong
by StefanBode
EURUSD downside target of 1.08550 ForecastAs seen on the chart we anticipate a downside move to retest the 1.08550 - 1.08650 levels. We can expect further downside move as the council still remains dovish. Furthermore, Mario Draghi says Fiscal policy has to be the main policy tool. An increase on the monetary stimulus program is also concerning. Not to forget to mention the additional easing measures are not fully priced into the market. On the other hand, analysing price action it is evident that we have bearish momentum with price rejecting at the 1.0990-1.100 level. We have a reversal pattern with a breached bullish trend-line; therefore, we can anticipate a downside move to RT our highlighted support levels.
Short
by SKACAPITAL
1