EURUSD 1.9200 then possibly higher. Expecting price to reach 1.9200. Possible further bullish penetration to RT previous month highs. The chart represents a forecast and not a signal. We willl seek PA confirmation on the M5.
Ecb
#IR10Y - #ECB is BANKRUPT Part 4 #Ireland #EURUSD @lagarde @ecbIn the short term, the ECB is still holding against the capital flight from Irish government bonds, but it is powerless against the capital flight out of the euro.
The ECB's new bazooka won't help, Mrs Lagarde.
As you can see in the chart, the fish is eaten, and the trader world can see that too if 1,77 falling.
Best regards from Hannover (Lower Saxony)
Stefan Bode
#IR10Y - #ECB is BANKRUPT Part 4 #Ireland #EURUSD @lagarde @ecb
#IT10Y - #ECB is BANKRUPT Part 3 #Italy #EURUSD @lagarde @ecbIn the short term, the ECB can still fight against the capital flight from Italy government bonds, but it is powerless against the capital flight out of the euro.
The ECB's new bazooka won't help, Mrs Lagarde.
As you can see in the chart, if 3,00 and later 3,85 falls, everything is done and dusted - the trader world will see that too.
Look at RSI on monthly base!!!
Best regards from Hannover (Lower Saxony)
Stefan Bode
#IT10Y - #ECB is BANKRUPT Part 3 #Italy #EURUSD @lagarde @ecb
#ES10Y - #ECB is BANKRUPT Part 2 #Spain #EURUSD @lagarde @ecbIn the short term, the ECB is still holding against the capital flight from Spain government bonds, but it is powerless against the capital flight out of the euro.
The ECB's new bazooka won't help, Mrs Lagarde.
As you can see in the chart, the candy has been sucked and the trader world can see that too.
Best regards from Hannover (Lower Saxony)
Stefan Bode
#ES10Y - #ECB is BANKRUPT Part 2 #Spain #EURUSD @lagarde @ecb
EURUSD downside target of 1.08550 ForecastAs seen on the chart we anticipate a downside move to retest the 1.08550 - 1.08650 levels. We can expect further downside move as the council still remains dovish. Furthermore, Mario Draghi says Fiscal policy has to be the main policy tool. An increase on the monetary stimulus program is also concerning. Not to forget to mention the additional easing measures are not fully priced into the market. On the other hand, analysing price action it is evident that we have bearish momentum with price rejecting at the 1.0990-1.100 level. We have a reversal pattern with a breached bullish trend-line; therefore, we can anticipate a downside move to RT our highlighted support levels.
EURNZD Will bulls resume the rally at the start of the week ?Hi Traders,
I do expect rally to resume ( with that scenario overall switch to risk off has to happen ).
Discussing entry and stop levels as well as possible targets.
Happy Holiday Season
Good Luck
IMPORTANT MESSAGEAfter much deliberation, I adjusted my current market opinion somewhat. Basically, I am still bearish about the current events and get my idea of the last 5th movement in the bearish direction realistic. However, the following scenario should also be kept in mind and not be surprised by certain bullish tendencies:
The governments and central banks of the countries or economies will provide any liquidity that is needed.
There is no tactic and debt avoidance, like in the financial crisis in 2009 or the Greek crisis in 2012.
Therefore, the market itself reacts to negative data with positive price jumps, since it is assumed that further relief measures will be provided.
IMPORTANT !
THIS CAN WORK, BUT THE FALL IS ALWAYS ENORMOUS, because when one link gets out of joint, it pulls everyone down. No country is currently allowed to face acute payment difficulties. In addition, it is still possible to argue whether all negative economic effects have already been sufficiently priced into the courses.
ridethepig | When will EURUSD find a bottom?A good time to kickstart a round of chart updates here...the underlying infrastructure in Europe will be fixed, from a monetary perspective eurobonds will be the only way to save the currency and covid-19 has unlocked Germany one more time. Although we are starting to clear the top of the curve in places like Italy and NY to a lot lesser extent, there is (sadly) a lot of damage to recover in the 'fact' leg across earnings and macro numbers.
The dark clouds are still prevalent across Europe, until Germany bend the knee it will be difficult to grab euros with both hands. Instead a further flush of the lows is in play, in my books it will be enough to trigger capitulation and remain in this strategy. For those tracking the examples in DAX we traded the highs earlier in the year, there is marginal room for another leg lower via risk:
I am starting to turn neutral there and continue to monitor the situation with an ear to the ground. USD will remain in bid until we clear the risk/panic flows in Coronavirus. For those tracking the short-term technical side in EURUSD for the long-term map we have 1.07xx handle acting as strong support, I expect a breach to trigger the political capitulation which is what we are tracking on the fundamental side . Once we clear the , to the topside a breach of 1.089xx will open up the targets above. These macro swing targets will come into play at 1.18xx, 1.25xx and 1.35xx over the coming Months and Quarters.
The courage to intentionally let oneself be put under pressure for days, just on account of a remote possibility, is now rewarded. Buyers will obtain a direct attack by letting the lows go, do not rush into this move as it is one to track for the rest of the year and potentially decade. Pips are for pipsqueak’s ... this is a fundamental swing which consists of setting our opponent a difficult problem.
You can see the stakes are being raised; buyers are taking their time developing the cramped floor. And yet, sellers have not yet passed the point of no return at parity, after which it becomes impossible to level the playing field. A very difficult macro concept to understand, jump into the comments with any questions, comments and views!
EURO on the edge of historical collapseTradingview hides EURUSD absolute low of early 1985.
Even Investing.com will not reveal it to you. Investing.com provides a close for 1985 and possibility to draw a trendline.
You can see it using Fxtop.com historic chart and then use investing.com to draw that trendline.
But that historic trendline runs the way I plotted now - the right end is even slightly lower.
At any case March monthly shadow did test it - hence the violent bullish reaction from the European Central Bank.
At this point it is hard to make any technical prediction because we are dealing with the European Central Bank which can easily push the price.
But we are on the very edge of historical trendline.
If APRIL candle closes below that trendline that will change EURO history for years to come - a close below will break 1985-2020 EURUSD uptrend (by modern definition of technical analysis) that lasted 35 years.
Even we move below that trendline in April it is still not guaranteed that we will stay there.
April monthly close below is necessary and May candle (being bearish) has to validate that as well.
But I will not be surprised if this breakdown occurs considering the situation in the EU. Even on small April volume EURO keeps flying down.
ECB can push the price but not control it.
ridethepig | EUR Market Commentary 2020.03.26Eyes on EURUSD this morning as we enter into M and Q end rebalancing to put the 🍒 on top (as if there is not already enough in play). A healthy pullback towards 1.097x is enough to draw sellers back in and makes me lean towards playing another leg towards the downside with next 🔑 support located at 1.05xx handle lows.
There will be fresh supply at current levels as no one wants to hold risk into month end - fear remains prevalent across the globe and on a humanist level sentiment remains awful. On a slightly more positive note, once these dark clouds clear (still on track for early April) then the path is paved for a massive rebound in risk assets. Remaining as nimble as possible is the pragmatic approach.
The idea is no less imaginative than that of the recently posted GBPUSD :
Thanks as usual for all those keeping the support coming with likes, comments and etc! Jump into the comments with any questions and charts.
BAILOUTS FOR GOVERNMENTS ARE THE REAL PROBLEM!I SEE MANY PEOPLE COMPLAINING ABOUT BAILOUTS FOR THE PRIVATE SECTOR!
HOW ABOUT THE REAL PROBLEM: BAILOUTS FOR GOVERNMENTS!
I WOULD BET MY LIFE SAVINGS THAT THE ECB WILL GUARANTEE THAT ITALIAN (AND EVERY OTHER EUROPEAN NATION'S) BOND YIELDS REMAIN SUPPRESSED BY SACRIFICING THE VALUE OF THE SAVINGS OF EVERY PERSON IN EUROPE!
UNTIL GOVERNMENTS ARE ALLOWED TO DEFAULT, WE WILL CONTINUE A STEADY MARCH TOWARDS GLOBAL COMMUNISM!
WESTERN CIVILIZATION, THE FREEST AND MOST PROSPEROUS COLLECTION OF INDIVIDUALS IN THE HISTORY OF THE PLANET, WAS BUILT ON PRIVATE SAVINGS ACCRUED THROUGH EXCESS PRODUCTIVITY (ACCUMULATED CAPITAL)!
THE RIGHTS OF THOSE INDIVIDUALS AND THE VALUE OF THAT CAPITAL IS ON THE VERGE OF DESTRUCTION!
EUR Will hit 1.11500 ECB Meeting Tomorrow. But What's Next?EURUSD will make at least a 50% retracement at some point tomorrow 3/12/20. The ECB is expected to cut interest rates by .10% and possibly mention more stimulus. Look for EUR to tag 1.11500. The question is what will happen next? Price could bounce right back up in the descending channel and possibly break up past the channel and make another attempt at 1.15? or Will price head for the 61.8% retracement at 1.10500? Time will tell. The target for the short is 1.11500 (100+ pips).
I am not a financial advisor. This is not financial advice. This is for educational purposes only.
EURUSD (Short)An ABC zigzag has formed and an opportunity to ride wave C. with the daily fibo as target which is 38% of the impulsive move that we seen last week. I'll be carefully watching this one as the bulls will be waiting to get in at the take profit level if this theory is correct.
ridethepig | EUR Market Commentary 2020.03.05A playable break here in euro, with a more solid resistance found at 1.124x which seems to be the next target for buyers. Now DAX sellers are entering back into the picture which will keep EUR in bid and help us corner our opponent up slowly before a momentum break, though this attempt could be better seen in German Equities:
The position which is reached is full of resources, such as:
(i) ... EURUSD macro breakdown
(ii) ... ECB Floor
(iii) ... birds eye view then... breakout
You should also take a look at the Dollar focus which arises via FED artificial devaluation of USD:
The position we have here appears really simple and clean, but is actually rather complex given the dangerous environment. A break will allow buyers to occupy the flow and expose the 1.124 jurisdiction. In positions like this, play the momentum with extreme force.
Thanks as usual for keeping the likes and comments coming, jump in with your charts and views in the comments!
ridethepig | EUR Market Commentary 2020.03.04Powell capitulating and surprising markets with a rate cut which helped euro crack the 1.12 handle.
After a nice pullback we are right back to the starting point in time for the NY session. The drivers remain the same for now, (i) bearish on risk via virus impact, while (ii) bullish on risk via Sanders fading into the distance provides the pullbacks.
The euro has covered an impressive amount distance in a short period of time and as US cases begin to tick higher it will certainly push EURUSD higher. I am buying 1.110x on the day for a 1.124x target and remaining nimble around virus uncertainty.
As usual thanks for keeping the likes and comments coming! Jump in with any questions or charts below!
ridethepig | DAX 2020 Macro MapAs those following the latest Macro charts in Euro will know, the philosophy of EUR finding a strong bid will constitute good criteria for the devaluation of German Equities and rule out any possibility of setting new all time highs. This is crunching time for the Fiscal side in Europe, if Germany start to use the fiscal side then the logical follow up is EUR long:
An ingenious swing move, which is extraordinarily difficult to trade without knowledge of the fundamentals in play. Bulls have all the time been operating in stealth mode, whereas bears starting to go overboard in a counter attack. Mother Nature is taking care of these errors, all at once. In most circumstances she would have turned a blind eye, although from time to time intervention is necessary with a gentle smile and turned cheek. The diagram in Bund Yields highlights the underlying issue:
The sacrifice of the 12886 lows in DAX creates freedom for the waterfall manoeuvre. Otherwise sacrifices on the topside (only via a sweep) are still possible. See for example the following flows in CAC:
The fact that this attack was able to clear the highs, shows the two different battlefields in play for Europe. The exchange of flows in Europe is particularly worth expressing via DAX shorts with 2020 outlooks all set and ready to go. In the long term, remember to consider the US Equities chart:
To secure the position; invalidation and reassessment only necessary with a break above the highs. To the downside, initial targets enter into play at 10,500 ... we will cover and update the flows live here.
As usual thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, questions and etc! Feel free to jump into the conversation in the comments with your views/charts.
EURNOK - mean reversionNOK got undervalued due to the OIL price decline
Norges Bank interest rate: 1.5% vs ECB 0% -> carry favors NOK
Inflation is also higher in Norway
I went short on technical + fundamental factors coinciding.
ridethepig | Fading euro rallies into 1.108xThe euro finding more demand overnight with Italy behaving and looking for help on the fiscal side. Risk markets are cooking a s/t rebound via co-ordinated global policy intervention; by no means is this the end of the virus but the underlying negative tone we have been witnessing across mainstream media is starting to soften this week.
Global Central Bank co-ordinated policy action will be enough to keep risk markets elevated in the short-term and allow for a temporary rebound in risk (markets are now pricing -75bps from FED ... insane !!!). I am fading rallies in EURUSD today at 1.108x, markets have gone overboard in my books on FED cuts, the impact on global growth is still going to weigh on European data going forward. The lows are currently locked by the support at 1.097x, should we lose it then it will expose them and 1.06-1.05 underneath!
Those who traded the leg in USDJPY will be able to pull the trigger again at 109.2x:
Risk markets are starting to form a temporary floor via BOJ stepping in and suture the wound. Volatility is set to remain high for the coming days, Asian stocks finding a bid from the usual dip buyers while USDJPY has started to bounce from last week’s move. Looking to sell any rallies into 109.2x as we have not seen the end of the storm in currencies yet.
Best of luck all those in G10 FX over the coming sessions, thanks for keeping your support coming with likes, comments, charts and etc!!
ridethepig | EURCNH Market Commentary 2020.03.01Here we go for a round of important chart update on the FX, Commodity and Equity board... I do not subscribe to the idea of this being the start of the euro reserve currency rally which we were tracking earlier in the year that failed from the Coronavirus short-circuit, although it is certainly moving with speed. Remember we have month end flows in play now too and to put the 🍒 on top the virus still not under control.
I am expecting further downside in euro as the outbreak continues to delay the recovery in trade for Europe, now it is crystal clear if it wasn't already that the EUR really holds the key to pandora's box for those wanting to play the reflationary trade. This has been delayed till later in 2020 via the deflationary shock from COVID-19. Tracking 1.05xx-1.04xx in EURUSD.
On the CNH side, the PBOC intervention is notable:
Advise selling rallies in Chinese Equities for now, the demand for currency will increase as long as the virus shows no signs of abating. I expect this cross to grind towards the 7.40 levels where it would be very attractive for those mid and long-term macro players to buy the dip into 2021. On the technical side, Strong resistance is found at 7.73 / 7.75, use this to sell into and target the support at 7.40 / 7.38.
Thanks as usual for keeping your support coming with likes, comments, charts and etc!
ridethepig | DE 10-Year Yield DailyI will try to keep this one relatively short, a very important update to the German 10-year benchmark yield. This is one to track as it is coming after a fresh attempt of a breakdown in EURUSD for the NY open. Here we can see important macro forces in play with extreme risk on the radar via Coronavirus with large sharks being forced to reposition and rebalance defensively for risk-off flows.
European Equities (DAX) will do the same dance:
Although we did find an all be it temporary but rather traditional bid from the 50% retrace ... the move is clearly running out of steam and softening the near-term optimism around a temporary rebound. This will attract sellers and those with soft hands to start taking European risk off the table. In my books the mid and long term pictures are far clearer for Europe. This will be a lot easier to see when I upload the Weekly DE10Y Yield chart with the close. In any case, the key levels in the map to play are as follows:
Strong Resistance -0.15% <=> Soft Resistance -0.25% <=> Mid point -0.34% <=> Soft Support -0.45% <=> Strong Support -0.60%
This will also carry important implications for the EURUSD chart so a round of chart updates on the FX, Commodity and to a lot lesser extent French, Spanish and Italian Equities front necessary over the coming sessions. As usual thanks for keeping your support coming with likes, comments and etc!
ridethepig | Green/CDU Grand Coalition Cooking in GermanyA fresh round of poll updates from Germany with CDU/Green coalition in play:
=> CDU/CSU-EPP: 28%
=> GRÜNE-G/EFA: 23%
=> SPD-S&D: 12%
=> AfD-ID: 11% (-1)
=> LINKE-LEFT: 9%
=> FDP-RE: 9%
We are marking the highs as widely mentioned previously in the 2020 Dax Macro Map:
Markets are unable to shrug off risk from Coronavirus and we are spreading into waterfall mode. PBOC stepping in to attempt stopping the bleeding but smells too little too late. No surprises EUR showing signs of marching in the opposite direction:
Those following the latest Macro charts in Euro will know, the philosophy of EUR finding a strong bid will constitute good criteria for the devaluation of German Equities. This is crunching time for the Fiscal side in Europe, if Germany start to turn on the fiscal taps (too late anyway) then the logical follow up is EUR long.
Thanks as usual for keeping your support coming with likes, comments, charts and etc!
ridethepig | EUR Market Commentary 2020.02.26Here we go for another important NY session … EURUSD holding the 🔑 1.09xx test of resistance ahead of the open as expected. Markets notably anxious of further outbreaks which (sadly) seems unavoidable now.
I spotted a lot of euro supply from corporates this morning. Remaining short is perfectly reasonable assuming the current highs hold this PM, targets are located below 1.07.
For those in Fixed Income the picture is a lot easier to see as usual they are miles ahead of the retail FX crowd.
On EURUSD I am holding shorts from the initial 1.086x entry here for a leg towards the initial support at 1.077x. As long as the 1.09xx resistance is holding there is very little to see to the topside. The EUR weakness is a lot easier to see this morning in EURCHF, this 1.060x level is being defended by SNB:
In EQ things are a lot clearer as the waterfall is in play already for DAX, coronavirus has short-circuited the global reflationary theme that market where so happy to latch onto towards the back-end of 2019:
...good luck to all those riding the pig. As usual thanks for keeping your support coming with likes, comments and etc! Stay tuned for a well needed round of chart updates coming across most asset classes.
ridethepig | EUR Market Commentary 2020.02.24A very important weekend across the globe. Italy, Iran and SK weighing heavy on virus sentiment as capital rushes out the doors. Any hopes of a Q2 rebound are starting to fade and that USD haven demand we’ve seen of late looks set to continue.
All eyes this week remain on virus watch, a muted/slightly dovish Lagarde expected on the wires and here happy to sell any bounces into 1.085x/6x. A move through 1.0775 will trigger momentum.
On the Bund side things are a lot clearer with a -12% day!
Fast paced markets, tracking the 1.086x entry here for a leg towards the initial support at 1.077x. The waterfall is in play, good luck to all those riding the pig. As usual thanks for keeping your support coming with likes, comments and etc!
