ridethepig | Gold Market Commentary 2020.01.16This chart comes after a request from @radyan899464 and a very good time to update the chart as we reach strong support from the initial wave of profit taking after our large swing. Those tracking the previous swing can see in the diagram here:
1595 triggered a lot of profit taking and covering, we are now entering into accumulation and once again get ready to ride the pig with initial targets in Q220 at 1650.xx via US Election repricing (more on this later in the Live room). It is a key area as it will effectively become the differential zone between impulsive and corrective, it is clear the 'C' sequence targets have been reached on the Weekly chart:
The important point to note here is should we see failure in the case of paralysing the impulsive move towards 1650 then we must not be caught by the teeth in the saw. The manoeuvres directed here should be taken with caution.
Good luck all those looking for another squeeze higher and as usual thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments etc!
Ecb
ridethepig | EUR Spot Commentary 2020.02.14All 👀 on EUR with heavy sells mounting from some of the biggest sharks in the business. It’s difficult to find anything positive on the macro side in Europe at the moment, and notably I am getting an increasing amount of questions from clients with the same exhaustion. With German uncertainty, ECB emergency cuts making the rounds and when you look at positioning there is room for a leg in EURUSD towards the 1.07xx handle to close the gap from 🇫🇷 elections. Clearly a lot more unwinding to be done and after the fresh break lower and with the macro price drivers unlikely to change in the immediate term, I will look to short 1.0925 aiming for the 1.07 lows.
ridethepig | EURUSD Macro Update [Dissecting Waves]The starting position has been difficult to reach for the 3rd impulsive wave after coronavirus risk-off flows hijacked the move. But what now? Either a breakdown to close the gap from French elections in 2017 or an imminent reversal to kickstart the leg; of course if only the positional obligation was not so appealing at these levels for longs because we are obliged to play, instead of with the current direction, some positionally relevant move to strengthen the advance.
On the macro side, refreshing to see the lows holding but for how long? We are just simply picking key levels where the price can kick up out of. You don't necessarily need to agree with the wave counts but you see the value levels for those wanting to work the bid. These are not the levels you want to be selling in my books, I will not chase this lower unless we get a daily close below the 5th wave which will naturally call for reassessment of the count.
Those tracking the dissection of the technicals will know by now that we are sitting in key support levels from our technical diagram:
Regular readers and those with a background in waves will know that the trend resumption towards the topside is only a matter of time. Buyers will repeat the manoeuvre and create a longer term threat - that is the intention!
Its only once you have mapped this out and you have an understanding of the big picture in play that you can then come down smaller and start trying to work the intraday legs. I could get even more to this if the US Equities come under pressure and correct which will in turn force FED to tilt further towards the dovish side... In any case we will see how this one goes, I am looking to get long but will need a helping hand from a fresh price driver to assist in flipping the board.
Risks to the thesis come from an emergency -10bps hike from the ECB, it does not look in play as long as the lows are holding..clearly markets are testing their patience, a breach of the lows will force Lagarde to capitulate with a cut. There wont be anymore QE because that's too difficult to backtrack. Cutting rates would be the more effective front load....wary of this walking forward.
Don't forget to keep the likes, charts, questions and comments coming! Thanks guys...
ridethepig | EURCHF Market Commentary 2020.01.16A good time to update the daily chart in EURCHF with Euro starting to trade firmer on the crosses and the CHF run beginning to show signs of unwinding. The 1.074x is starting to look very weak and will give way to sweep all the way down towards 1.062x, here looking to increase exposure; should we visit 1.080x I will not hesitate to increase sizings.
For those tracking the Long-term macro chart we remain in the same updated map:
Currency manipulation is once again a hot topic with US putting China back on the 'nice' list, smelling SNB to become the next deer in the headlights as CHF inflows are impressive and I believe sharp money is going to test the limits.
Good luck those in EURCHF - an advanced chart for the move towards 1.06xx.
EURAUD Probabilities For Rebound?This is not a guarantee investment advice but seeing the potential risk to reward for upside and knowing the ECB head Lagarde due to give a speech in some minute I thought this pair will have some good volatility. Knowing that during the Asian session the latest updates on retail sales and trade balance for Australia were worst then forecast and previous but the pair continues its downtrend which was fishy and wasn't actually mean to be technically and fundamentally (kinda like things were already priced in). This time we can see a possible rebound from fib 61.80% and knowing if ECB head Lagarde has something good to say which may help boost the euro upward and if coronavirus weighs over higher-yielding currency like Aussie again will be plus point for bull traders in this pair.
EURNZD Possible Trade OpportunityRisk appetite has recovered in recent trading sessions as China seems to be stepping up its game when it comes to keeping the coronavirus outbreak and its impact on the economy contained.
This was enough to bring EUR/NZD down to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level on its recent rally, and it appears that buyers are trying to defend this area. Price is currently trading below the weekly pivot point level and a deeper pullback could last until the 50-61.8% Fibs that span an area of interest.
A bounce off the 50-61.8% area could take EUR/NZD back to the swing high around 1.71770 (around weekly pivot point R1). With ECB head Lagarde due to give a speech in an hour, I’m hoping to see some volatility for this pair. If the speech favor euro we can actually see a bounce but if it doesn't help the positive sentiment for euro we may see the price dip further without any pullbacks from those key levels of fib.
ridethepig | Feel The Bern!Here a very good time to update the Daily chart in EURUSD as we approach the infamous "Loading Zone" at 1.104x for the European close. A temporary reprieve for US data but in this case sellers have already exposed their stops on the highs while buyers continue to load on the ranks.
The exchange/consolidation in the short-term flow makes it possible for buyers to continue loading at support. But in this case too, a quiet move (after the powerful moves in Asia) namely consolidation at support then check-mate on the next breakup. This will likely come tonight by Bernie winning in Iowa which will weigh heavy on the USD.
You will notice the concentration of forces on the Weekly related diagram:
In this position, the direct exploitation of calm waters after the storm is forcing away many participants. It is of prime importance to perform this manoeuvre in the Asian session! Good luck all those in EURUSD, I tactically stay long and watch 1.12xx handle for a break above. To the downside reassessment is only necessary below 1.095.
Thanks as usual for keeping the likes and comments coming, jump into the comments with your charts and we can open the discussions!
ridethepig | EUR Spot Commentary 2020.02.03After managing to retrace most of Friday's rally we are going to open up the Weekly flows for EURUSD; EUR saw notable month end demand as smart money understands the shift behind the curtain at the ECB. The highs in this are going to be capped at the 1.12 handle with main targets 1.125x and anything beyond this would have to come from the USD side at this point. Before we dig any deeper into the flows lets quickly recap the charts we are tracking:
On the Macro side:
For the Long-Term Technical diagram:
For the Mid-Term Technical diagram:
The DXY Monthly chart:
The virus driven risk via growth slowdown in China is showing no signs of abating, it will impact Europe directly and mean we need to run further reviews on the impact before making a decision around whether outlooks need changing. The PBOC are attempting to stop the bleeding, technically this should reach 1.125 as a minimum flow. It will be difficult to make any concrete changes in the mid and long term charts without understanding more around the impact. For now the levels to track are 1.104x and 1.125x.
Good luck all those in EURUSD, I remain bullish and lean towards the 1.125x move completing. As usual thanks for keeping your support coming with likes, comments, charts and etc!
ridethepig | ECB Macro FlowsHere we go...Markets are not expecting a lot from the ECB fundamental front , rates will remain on hold with more focus on the hard macro data tomorrow. The only thing to 🔎today is for clues around duration of policy review.
On the technical side , jurisdictions are defined clearly on both sides as EUR is comfortably holding the 1.108/9x support. The initial targets are located at 1.125x resistance while stops can be kept comfortably below 1.103x. My feeling is that macro players betting on the topside are itching to get going as the board is setup in favour of EUR. Happy to hold longs for now.
In the Long-Term chart (see diagram below) buyers have broken out of the resistance channel; amongst other effects, this reduced the sellers in EURUSD to become a prisoner in their own camp. The main function of the breakout appears to be as a competent bi-product in the USD devaluation / 2020 reflationary theme.
The technicals for the long term are striving to reach 1.21xx and beyond. But the concept of "attacker" goes much further. You can also defend areas (for example the 1.108/9x today in ECB) or defend yourself against a breakout:
Buyers are securing a wide stretch of the swing territory. This could be considered as gaining momentum with green shoots appearing in Europe already. This means that macro recovery will be used as weapon of force:
Good luck all those in EURUSD, and trading ECB today. We can open the short-term flows if there is enough interest in the comments.. as usual thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments and etc!
Markets calm too soon. Preparing for Fed's decisionDespite the fact that the coronavirus epidemic is in full swing (the number of deaths has already exceeded one hundred, and the number of infected has approached 5000), investors sighed with relief. The Fear Index (VIX) crashed 15%, safe-haven assets were down, and stock markets and oil were up.
Since we still do not see reasons for optimism, our recommendations remain valid: we are looking for points for buying gold and the Japanese yen within a day, and we are selling the Russian ruble and stock markets in the medium term.
As an argument, we will cite information from the head of the Medical School of the University of Hong Kong, Professor Gabriel Lung, who announced the data from which it follows that 10 times more people are infected with the coronavirus than is officially considered. According to him, in Wuhan alone, 25,000 people are infected with the coronavirus, and the total number is 44,000. He predicts that the number of coronaviruses infected in China will double in 6 days. If the markets decide to respond to this information, then we may well become witnesses of what happened on Monday.
The only recommendation is that we recommend buying oil as a kind of hedge for other positions that are somewhat unidirectional regarding investor sentiment, as well as an independent, not hopeless position. Now everyone is fixated on one component of the oil market situation - demand. But there is still a suggestion. And in this regard, Libya sends a rather strong bullish signal to the market. We are talking about the possibility of an almost complete stoppage of oil production in the country. According to the head of National Oil Corp. Mustafa Sanalla in the near future production may be reduced to 72 thousand b/d. from the current 262 thousand barrels per day.
Meanwhile, the main central bank of the world today will announce its decision on the parameters of monetary policy. With a probability of 87%, the bet will be left unchanged. At the same time, 13% of traders believe that the rate will be increased. Quite symptomatic is the fact that markets do not even consider the possibility of reducing the Fed rate. But unlike the ECB or the Bank of Japan, the Fed still has enough space for this to maneuver.
So, they will almost certainly not touch the bid. So, all attention will be focused on the comments of the Fed. What are the plans of the Central Bank for 2020? How long will the money market continue to pump liquidity through repos? Answers to these and other questions can determine the configuration in the financial markets.
Today we will not make plans and predict the reaction of the dollar to the outcome of the FOMC meeting. Our plan for working with this currency for today is to stay out of the market, study the position of the Fed and tomorrow will formulate a plan of work with the US dollar.
Central Banks weekly results, Coronavirus, Fed & BoELast week was marked by meetings of the Bank of Japan, Bank of Canada and the ECB. The first wave of decisions showed that the central banks are not yet ready for any changes in monetary policy. You can understand them: at the current rate of economic growth, raising the rate is impractical, and there is nowhere to lower it (at least in the case of the Bank of Japan and the ECB).
ECB expected to detail the new monetary strategy but did not get it. According to the head of the Central Bank Lagarde, before November December 2020, it will not be.
This week will be the second wave of meetings of the Central Banks. The Fed will announce its decisions on Wednesday and the Bank of England on Thursday. With the Fed, the intrigue is minimal, but there are doubts about the Bank of England - a number of analysts predict a rate cut. But we will talk about this closer to Thursday.
The main global event of the past week was the coronavirus epidemic in China. The situation looks quite menacing. About 40 million people are limited in mobility. The tourist season is disrupted (all this happens at the height of the celebration of the Lunar New Year). Economists are only just beginning to calculate possible losses, but it is already clear that the damage will be very significant. But events are still only at the progress stage.
It is very likely that this week will also be marked by growing fears in the investor environment in connection with the epidemic. We cannot but note that risky assets (primarily stock markets) are potentially under attack. But safe-haven assets, on the contrary, have good chances for growth. So this week we are again buying gold and the Japanese yen.
In addition, we will continue to sell the Russian ruble: the formation of a new government, a hasty and generally dubious constitutional reform, the outcome of risky assets - all these are good reasons for the correction of the ruble.
On Friday, January 31, Great Britain officially leaves the European Union. This is an occasion to recall the pound and its purchases. Recall, when the markets were just beginning to believe in the “soft” Brexit, the pound grew to the area of 1.41-1.43. Now it is becoming a reality, but the pound is quoted at about 1.31. Which in itself is a reason to think about buying it.
ECB strategy, record pessimism amid record greedYesterday, the ECB expectedly left the parameters of monetary policy in the Eurozone. This was predictable, so most were interested in the new strategy of the Central Bank. But Lagarde greatly disappointed the markets, saying that before November-December, one could not count on any clarity in this matter.
Thus, the euro will not have to rely on support from the ECB in the foreseeable future. So the decline in the single European currency was quite natural yesterday. Not even Lagarde’s remarks on the fact that moderate growth was observed in the European economy did not help.
In general, the euro continues to look attractive enough for sale. Increase pressure on the euro and sales in the EURJPY pair, which we recommended selling the pair when it was quoted above 122.
PricewaterhouseCoopers recently announced the results of a survey of heads of major world companies. We have already analyzed the results of a similar survey from Deloitte and note that PWC confirmed the previous results: the business is experiencing record pessimism since 2009. Only 27% of company heads expect improvement in the economy. Most expect a slowdown in the global economy. Characteristically, the most pessimistic leaders in the United States. Which once again convinces us of the correct course on sales in the US stock market. Meanwhile, the fall of the Chinese Shanghai Composite Index by 2.8% on the last trading day before the lunar New Year, was the largest drop in eight months.
Naturally, with such a level of pessimism, purchases of safe-haven assets look great. So today we will continue to look for points for buying gold and the Japanese yen. Again, the epidemic in China is in the process of development: the second large city, Huanggang (population about 11 million people), has been closed for entry and exit. Railroad interrupted with the city of Ezhou.
Friday promises to be a rather volatile day. Data on business activity indexes for the Eurozone and selected European countries, as well as the UK and the USA, coupled with statistics on retail sales in Canada, practically guarantee that it will not be boring.
EUR/AUD bounce or a break today?!1-hour time frame, EUR/AUD is trending higher inside a rising channel and the pair is currently testing support. Aussie may have enjoyed a strong run from impressive job data in the Asian session, but it could return those gains to the euro if the ECB sounds more upbeat. Stochastic is indicating oversold conditions or exhaustion among sellers, too. If price action makes fakeout from daily pivot s3, SMA 100&200 and price admiring the rising channel's lower trendline (support) may be the first signals of bearish momentum fading off. This could be the chance for buyers to hop in and take back price up to the top of the rising channel around daily r1 of the pivot but before that, any major adjustments to price stability and growth targets could impact the euro during ECB release which must be taken care. Some analysts predicting that there could be more optimism surrounding recent economic data release. Breakout lower from all those above mentioned crucial areas of interest with strong bearish momentum can be a case if ECB mess up with its upcoming release which can boost the bearish bias idea on this pair!! Oh, and I will like to bet on bounce bais yo! What about you pals? Which team are you? Bounce or break? Feel free to share your ideas in the comment section ;)
EURUSD potential short on ECB ratesToday we have the first ECB of 2020. Price at confirmed support and near trend line.
Dovish outlook from Lagarde would trigger short trade on the break of support and trend line.
Alternatively any hawkishness would make a bounce from here, though it is less probable.
Good Luck!
China’s epidemic, Brexit, the ECB, ruble, and oilWednesday was remembered by the next highs in the US stock market. The madness continues, but characteristic is the reluctance of gold to decline against this background. It turns out that buying gold is currently practically risk-free: with an increase in demand for risky assets, it does not fall, but at the same time, any concerns of investors instantly provoke an increase in asset prices.
Speaking of investor concerns. The coronavirus epidemic in China seems to be gaining momentum and is at risk of spreading around the world. And although China’s official authorities claim that the situation is under control, there are risks of causing significant economic damage to the Chinese economy. Events take place at the time of the New Year holidays in China, which traditionally attract millions of tourists. In general, the chances of a trend continuing in a slowdown in China's economy are very high.
Against such a background, gold purchases continue to be one of our favorite deals to date.
Another top deal for us is the purchase of the British pound. The reasons are the same - Brexit is slowly but surely moving towards the implementation of the “soft” scenario, and this is an occasion for the growth of the pound in the region of 1.40. Yesterday, the GBPUSD pair jerked up due to the fact that the House of Lords of the British Parliament approved the Brexit bill. So on January 31, Great Britain will leave the European Union. From February, a transitional period will begin, which will last until the end of 2020.
Bank Canals expectedly left the rate unchanged yesterday. However, the Canadian dollar was still under pressure, and the trading tactics proposed by us in yesterday's review worked out 100%.
It is a pity that it can hardly be applied today in the case of the euro. The ECB will announce its decision on the parameters of monetary policy in the afternoon. Almost certainly everything will be unchanged. But comments can be quite unexpected. It is about the announcement of the details of the new monetary policy strategy of the Central Bank. As expected, it will include a phasing out of quantitative easing and the era of zero rates.
If nothing changes, we do not expect a significant increase in the euro today. Even when changing the strategy of the Central Bank, it’s not about the months, but about the years that will be needed for its practical implementation. Downward pressure has clearly prevailed lately, and aggression on the part of the ECB has not come for years.
The Russian ruble continues to decline in the foreign exchange market, but the potential for its reduction has not yet been fully exhausted. It still seems rather vulnerable to us, so we will use any attempts to strengthen the ruble for its sales.
Oil yesterday declined quite aggressively and overcame an important level of support, which opens the way to a further decline. Considering that the markets again turned their attention to an oversupply of oil in 2020, we will refrain from aggressive asset purchases for now.
UK labor market gives the BoE's room for maneuverThe main event of yesterday in terms of macroeconomic statistics was the publication of statistics on the UK labor market. The data pleasantly surprised. Recall that we expected rather weak statistics - the British economy has been painfully unconvincing in recent times.
Nevertheless, the UK economy for three months until November created 208K new jobs, which is almost 2 times higher than analysts' expectations. The average weekly wage also came out better than expected (+ 3.2%).
Against the background of such data, supporters of the fact that the Bank of England will lower the rate at the next meeting sharply fell silent. Indeed, data on the labor market show that the Central Bank has no reason to rush. This sharply increased the chances that the bet will be left unchanged. The pound, of course, reacted positively to statistics and a shift in market expectations.
Recall in this regard to our recommendation to buy a pound on the slopes.
In general, for Europe yesterday was a good day. Indices from the ZEW Institute came out very good (relative to past data) both in the Eurozone as a whole (the expectations index came out almost 2 times higher than in December) and in Germany (the expectations index was +26.7 with a +15 forecast). So the growth of the euro looked quite natural. But for its continuation, this impulse will be clearly not enough.
In this regard, Thursday looks more promising: on this day, the ECB will announce its decision on the monetary policy parameters in the Eurozone. But we'll talk about this in tomorrow's review.
And today, the main event will be the announcement of the Bank of Canada’s decision on monetary policy parameters. Experts do not expect any changes. We are also inclined to believe that the bid will be left unchanged. But given the general trends in the development of the global economy in general and in Canada, in particular, there are risks of a rate reduction. Moreover, the reduction potential is far from exhausted, unlike the ECB or the Bank of Japan. Considering that the USDCAD pair has been treading water for two weeks now, fluctuating in the range of 50 points, there is a possibility of a strong movement in pairs with the Canadian dollar today. Moreover, the direction of movement is not obvious. Our recommendation in this regard is to work along the way. That is, if the pair goes above 1.3090 - we buy, if below 1.3020 - we sell.
ridethepig | EUR Market Commentary 2020.01.20EUR testing the 1.108/9x zone this morning as mentioned already earlier this month. At this point all soft hands who tried out guessing the reflationary flows and USD devaluation in December are washed out. Activity for the European open picked up, I remain bullish and have actively been adding longs in EURUSD. Stops can be kept comfortably below 1.103x while targets are located at 1.117x and 1.125x.
Remember we are tracking only three things:
1. the swing which is dictating the range
2. the opposing side which will become trapped
3. the swing behind the swing which is being trapped
The swinging process is attacking the opposition defending the swing you are playing. So in this case sellers are standing between the first targets at 1.125x - thus it would expose the threatened highs. If this breakout is absolute, i.e the swing may make a new higher high then we can talk of a complete swing like in this diagram:
For those wanting to check the Long-Term Fundamental chart:
Good luck all those selling USD, a lot of opportunities in G10 FX.
The week results: many events but few changesThe previous week was rich in important events, some of which can be formally classified as “game changers”, but judging by the dynamics of prices in the financial markets, the game did not undergo any special changes.
Let's start with the most global. The United States and China signed documents on the first part of the trade deal. But there was no euphoria - almost immediately it became clear that this was really only the first step towards solving the problem. Hundreds of billions of dollars in tariffs remain in force, and harm to the global economy will continue to be done. China's GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter of 2019 was minimal over the past 30 years, which is the best illustration of the previous phrase.
Other macroeconomic statistics released last week clearly confirmed this. The UK was the most disastrous data: GDP, industrial production, retail sales - all in the red and much worse than forecasts. Statistics from the US and the Eurozone also did not shine: industrial production in the States and the Eurozone came out in the negative zone.
In general, against the backdrop of such statistics, we were once again surprised at new historical highs in the US stock market and became even stronger in our belief in its imminent decline. Madness cannot last forever.
We already wrote about Putin’s initiatives and Medvedev’s resignation in Russia. We only note that the sale of the Russian ruble after the sale of shares in the US stock market and gold purchases, in our opinion, is one of the most promising positions in the financial markets as a whole.
Speaking of gold. After the gold sellers could not get anything out of the signing of the agreement between the USA and China, we became even more fond of buying this asset both within the day and in the medium term, especially after gold returned above 1550. The Japanese yen, although it looks weakened, also It is a good alternative to gold, but in the foreign exchange market.
Speaking about the upcoming week, we note that it promises to be even more interesting. It can be called the "Central Banks Week". The Bank of Japan, Bank of Canada and the ECB will announce their decisions on monetary policy parameters in their countries. And although experts do not expect global changes, given the weak form of the global economy, one can count on fairly “pigeon” sentiments in the ranks of the Central Banks.
EURNZD - Ascending Channel?We are presented with what appears so far to be an ascending channel on this pair, with higher timeframes displaying price up trending since late December.
By condensing to the hourly i have observed an area of consolidation around the lower trendline - with price unable to break below. With the trend bullish i am going to look to place buys if we are able to break the 1.6800 zone.
This being a psychological level may also give reason to why price is struggling to break above, however significant closure above this zone should give headway to go long to the upper trendline for continuation of the channel.
We must factor in the upcoming ECB interest rate decision this Thursday as it will likely be fundamentals which confirm direction.
Will be monitoring price action for long entry at the 1.68 zone with a profit level at the upper trendline of the ascending channel. Stops can be placed below the consolidation zone should price fake out and retrace.
Great R:R of 1:3+ on this trade should it meet our confirmations to enter.
ridethepig | The SwingWe are going to dig deeper into the concept of the wave/swing and how to create a positional strategy from a strictly technical sense.
After the latest test of 1.108/9x, which was so difficult for sellers with its positional issues, the next swing should appear "a piece of cake". I suspect this will lead you to ask whether imaginary protection is enough!? Be a man, no time to be afraid here on such a "protected" area. Seizing the breakup on the next swing has three stages:
1. the swing which is dictating the range
2. the opposing side which will become trapped
3. the swing behind the swing which is being trapped
The swinging process is attacking the opposition defending the swing you are playing. So in this case sellers are standing between the first targets at 1.125x - thus it would expose the threatened highs. If this breakout is absolute, i.e the swing may make a new higher high then we can talk of a complete swing.
Here the swing is only in the 'early game' stages, the swing in play is only "partially" possible.
How easy would it be if we went straight up (!!!) - more experienced traders would sooner stick their head inside a Crocodile's mouth 🐊. The slower the swing, the more respect. Bravery is needed, a swing without a foundation is a swing without power! As a rule, the plan here is to attack in such a way that we take immense control and achieve an attack next week.
As usual, thanks so much for keeping the likes and comments coming. Jump into the conversation below with your charts and ideas on EURUSD!
ridethepig | EUR Market Commentary 2020.01.17Eyes on the NY session here with Euro approaching the 1.108/9x lows, I will be actively buying today and sticking with the bullish view with targets located at 1.124/5x.
You will see how large hands absorb all of the selling pressure and eat up late breakdown players expected an effortless momentum trade, whereas the reality is the strength of macro forces in play defending the area and will be beautifully demonstrated. The Seller realises the error of his way too late and began to run to the hills. The comedy goes as follows:
For example in this position:
The strength of the view can be protected in the fact that it is immune from the opposing breakdown. The distant view is decisive:
The key point here is that the calendar is light so we are trading technical flows, I am buying the lows at 1.108/9x with targets at 1.124/5x for the highs. While stops can be kept below 1.100x as it will take a break below to demand reassessment of the bullish view.
Good luck all those in G10 FX.