ridethepig | EUR Spot Commentary 2020.02.03After managing to retrace most of Friday's rally we are going to open up the Weekly flows for EURUSD; EUR saw notable month end demand as smart money understands the shift behind the curtain at the ECB. The highs in this are going to be capped at the 1.12 handle with main targets 1.125x and anything beyond this would have to come from the USD side at this point. Before we dig any deeper into the flows lets quickly recap the charts we are tracking:
On the Macro side:
For the Long-Term Technical diagram:
For the Mid-Term Technical diagram:
The DXY Monthly chart:
The virus driven risk via growth slowdown in China is showing no signs of abating, it will impact Europe directly and mean we need to run further reviews on the impact before making a decision around whether outlooks need changing. The PBOC are attempting to stop the bleeding, technically this should reach 1.125 as a minimum flow. It will be difficult to make any concrete changes in the mid and long term charts without understanding more around the impact. For now the levels to track are 1.104x and 1.125x.
Good luck all those in EURUSD, I remain bullish and lean towards the 1.125x move completing. As usual thanks for keeping your support coming with likes, comments, charts and etc!
Ecb
ridethepig | ECB Macro FlowsHere we go...Markets are not expecting a lot from the ECB fundamental front , rates will remain on hold with more focus on the hard macro data tomorrow. The only thing to 🔎today is for clues around duration of policy review.
On the technical side , jurisdictions are defined clearly on both sides as EUR is comfortably holding the 1.108/9x support. The initial targets are located at 1.125x resistance while stops can be kept comfortably below 1.103x. My feeling is that macro players betting on the topside are itching to get going as the board is setup in favour of EUR. Happy to hold longs for now.
In the Long-Term chart (see diagram below) buyers have broken out of the resistance channel; amongst other effects, this reduced the sellers in EURUSD to become a prisoner in their own camp. The main function of the breakout appears to be as a competent bi-product in the USD devaluation / 2020 reflationary theme.
The technicals for the long term are striving to reach 1.21xx and beyond. But the concept of "attacker" goes much further. You can also defend areas (for example the 1.108/9x today in ECB) or defend yourself against a breakout:
Buyers are securing a wide stretch of the swing territory. This could be considered as gaining momentum with green shoots appearing in Europe already. This means that macro recovery will be used as weapon of force:
Good luck all those in EURUSD, and trading ECB today. We can open the short-term flows if there is enough interest in the comments.. as usual thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments and etc!
Markets calm too soon. Preparing for Fed's decisionDespite the fact that the coronavirus epidemic is in full swing (the number of deaths has already exceeded one hundred, and the number of infected has approached 5000), investors sighed with relief. The Fear Index (VIX) crashed 15%, safe-haven assets were down, and stock markets and oil were up.
Since we still do not see reasons for optimism, our recommendations remain valid: we are looking for points for buying gold and the Japanese yen within a day, and we are selling the Russian ruble and stock markets in the medium term.
As an argument, we will cite information from the head of the Medical School of the University of Hong Kong, Professor Gabriel Lung, who announced the data from which it follows that 10 times more people are infected with the coronavirus than is officially considered. According to him, in Wuhan alone, 25,000 people are infected with the coronavirus, and the total number is 44,000. He predicts that the number of coronaviruses infected in China will double in 6 days. If the markets decide to respond to this information, then we may well become witnesses of what happened on Monday.
The only recommendation is that we recommend buying oil as a kind of hedge for other positions that are somewhat unidirectional regarding investor sentiment, as well as an independent, not hopeless position. Now everyone is fixated on one component of the oil market situation - demand. But there is still a suggestion. And in this regard, Libya sends a rather strong bullish signal to the market. We are talking about the possibility of an almost complete stoppage of oil production in the country. According to the head of National Oil Corp. Mustafa Sanalla in the near future production may be reduced to 72 thousand b/d. from the current 262 thousand barrels per day.
Meanwhile, the main central bank of the world today will announce its decision on the parameters of monetary policy. With a probability of 87%, the bet will be left unchanged. At the same time, 13% of traders believe that the rate will be increased. Quite symptomatic is the fact that markets do not even consider the possibility of reducing the Fed rate. But unlike the ECB or the Bank of Japan, the Fed still has enough space for this to maneuver.
So, they will almost certainly not touch the bid. So, all attention will be focused on the comments of the Fed. What are the plans of the Central Bank for 2020? How long will the money market continue to pump liquidity through repos? Answers to these and other questions can determine the configuration in the financial markets.
Today we will not make plans and predict the reaction of the dollar to the outcome of the FOMC meeting. Our plan for working with this currency for today is to stay out of the market, study the position of the Fed and tomorrow will formulate a plan of work with the US dollar.
Central Banks weekly results, Coronavirus, Fed & BoELast week was marked by meetings of the Bank of Japan, Bank of Canada and the ECB. The first wave of decisions showed that the central banks are not yet ready for any changes in monetary policy. You can understand them: at the current rate of economic growth, raising the rate is impractical, and there is nowhere to lower it (at least in the case of the Bank of Japan and the ECB).
ECB expected to detail the new monetary strategy but did not get it. According to the head of the Central Bank Lagarde, before November December 2020, it will not be.
This week will be the second wave of meetings of the Central Banks. The Fed will announce its decisions on Wednesday and the Bank of England on Thursday. With the Fed, the intrigue is minimal, but there are doubts about the Bank of England - a number of analysts predict a rate cut. But we will talk about this closer to Thursday.
The main global event of the past week was the coronavirus epidemic in China. The situation looks quite menacing. About 40 million people are limited in mobility. The tourist season is disrupted (all this happens at the height of the celebration of the Lunar New Year). Economists are only just beginning to calculate possible losses, but it is already clear that the damage will be very significant. But events are still only at the progress stage.
It is very likely that this week will also be marked by growing fears in the investor environment in connection with the epidemic. We cannot but note that risky assets (primarily stock markets) are potentially under attack. But safe-haven assets, on the contrary, have good chances for growth. So this week we are again buying gold and the Japanese yen.
In addition, we will continue to sell the Russian ruble: the formation of a new government, a hasty and generally dubious constitutional reform, the outcome of risky assets - all these are good reasons for the correction of the ruble.
On Friday, January 31, Great Britain officially leaves the European Union. This is an occasion to recall the pound and its purchases. Recall, when the markets were just beginning to believe in the “soft” Brexit, the pound grew to the area of 1.41-1.43. Now it is becoming a reality, but the pound is quoted at about 1.31. Which in itself is a reason to think about buying it.
ECB strategy, record pessimism amid record greedYesterday, the ECB expectedly left the parameters of monetary policy in the Eurozone. This was predictable, so most were interested in the new strategy of the Central Bank. But Lagarde greatly disappointed the markets, saying that before November-December, one could not count on any clarity in this matter.
Thus, the euro will not have to rely on support from the ECB in the foreseeable future. So the decline in the single European currency was quite natural yesterday. Not even Lagarde’s remarks on the fact that moderate growth was observed in the European economy did not help.
In general, the euro continues to look attractive enough for sale. Increase pressure on the euro and sales in the EURJPY pair, which we recommended selling the pair when it was quoted above 122.
PricewaterhouseCoopers recently announced the results of a survey of heads of major world companies. We have already analyzed the results of a similar survey from Deloitte and note that PWC confirmed the previous results: the business is experiencing record pessimism since 2009. Only 27% of company heads expect improvement in the economy. Most expect a slowdown in the global economy. Characteristically, the most pessimistic leaders in the United States. Which once again convinces us of the correct course on sales in the US stock market. Meanwhile, the fall of the Chinese Shanghai Composite Index by 2.8% on the last trading day before the lunar New Year, was the largest drop in eight months.
Naturally, with such a level of pessimism, purchases of safe-haven assets look great. So today we will continue to look for points for buying gold and the Japanese yen. Again, the epidemic in China is in the process of development: the second large city, Huanggang (population about 11 million people), has been closed for entry and exit. Railroad interrupted with the city of Ezhou.
Friday promises to be a rather volatile day. Data on business activity indexes for the Eurozone and selected European countries, as well as the UK and the USA, coupled with statistics on retail sales in Canada, practically guarantee that it will not be boring.
EUR/AUD bounce or a break today?!1-hour time frame, EUR/AUD is trending higher inside a rising channel and the pair is currently testing support. Aussie may have enjoyed a strong run from impressive job data in the Asian session, but it could return those gains to the euro if the ECB sounds more upbeat. Stochastic is indicating oversold conditions or exhaustion among sellers, too. If price action makes fakeout from daily pivot s3, SMA 100&200 and price admiring the rising channel's lower trendline (support) may be the first signals of bearish momentum fading off. This could be the chance for buyers to hop in and take back price up to the top of the rising channel around daily r1 of the pivot but before that, any major adjustments to price stability and growth targets could impact the euro during ECB release which must be taken care. Some analysts predicting that there could be more optimism surrounding recent economic data release. Breakout lower from all those above mentioned crucial areas of interest with strong bearish momentum can be a case if ECB mess up with its upcoming release which can boost the bearish bias idea on this pair!! Oh, and I will like to bet on bounce bais yo! What about you pals? Which team are you? Bounce or break? Feel free to share your ideas in the comment section ;)
EURUSD potential short on ECB ratesToday we have the first ECB of 2020. Price at confirmed support and near trend line.
Dovish outlook from Lagarde would trigger short trade on the break of support and trend line.
Alternatively any hawkishness would make a bounce from here, though it is less probable.
Good Luck!
China’s epidemic, Brexit, the ECB, ruble, and oilWednesday was remembered by the next highs in the US stock market. The madness continues, but characteristic is the reluctance of gold to decline against this background. It turns out that buying gold is currently practically risk-free: with an increase in demand for risky assets, it does not fall, but at the same time, any concerns of investors instantly provoke an increase in asset prices.
Speaking of investor concerns. The coronavirus epidemic in China seems to be gaining momentum and is at risk of spreading around the world. And although China’s official authorities claim that the situation is under control, there are risks of causing significant economic damage to the Chinese economy. Events take place at the time of the New Year holidays in China, which traditionally attract millions of tourists. In general, the chances of a trend continuing in a slowdown in China's economy are very high.
Against such a background, gold purchases continue to be one of our favorite deals to date.
Another top deal for us is the purchase of the British pound. The reasons are the same - Brexit is slowly but surely moving towards the implementation of the “soft” scenario, and this is an occasion for the growth of the pound in the region of 1.40. Yesterday, the GBPUSD pair jerked up due to the fact that the House of Lords of the British Parliament approved the Brexit bill. So on January 31, Great Britain will leave the European Union. From February, a transitional period will begin, which will last until the end of 2020.
Bank Canals expectedly left the rate unchanged yesterday. However, the Canadian dollar was still under pressure, and the trading tactics proposed by us in yesterday's review worked out 100%.
It is a pity that it can hardly be applied today in the case of the euro. The ECB will announce its decision on the parameters of monetary policy in the afternoon. Almost certainly everything will be unchanged. But comments can be quite unexpected. It is about the announcement of the details of the new monetary policy strategy of the Central Bank. As expected, it will include a phasing out of quantitative easing and the era of zero rates.
If nothing changes, we do not expect a significant increase in the euro today. Even when changing the strategy of the Central Bank, it’s not about the months, but about the years that will be needed for its practical implementation. Downward pressure has clearly prevailed lately, and aggression on the part of the ECB has not come for years.
The Russian ruble continues to decline in the foreign exchange market, but the potential for its reduction has not yet been fully exhausted. It still seems rather vulnerable to us, so we will use any attempts to strengthen the ruble for its sales.
Oil yesterday declined quite aggressively and overcame an important level of support, which opens the way to a further decline. Considering that the markets again turned their attention to an oversupply of oil in 2020, we will refrain from aggressive asset purchases for now.
UK labor market gives the BoE's room for maneuverThe main event of yesterday in terms of macroeconomic statistics was the publication of statistics on the UK labor market. The data pleasantly surprised. Recall that we expected rather weak statistics - the British economy has been painfully unconvincing in recent times.
Nevertheless, the UK economy for three months until November created 208K new jobs, which is almost 2 times higher than analysts' expectations. The average weekly wage also came out better than expected (+ 3.2%).
Against the background of such data, supporters of the fact that the Bank of England will lower the rate at the next meeting sharply fell silent. Indeed, data on the labor market show that the Central Bank has no reason to rush. This sharply increased the chances that the bet will be left unchanged. The pound, of course, reacted positively to statistics and a shift in market expectations.
Recall in this regard to our recommendation to buy a pound on the slopes.
In general, for Europe yesterday was a good day. Indices from the ZEW Institute came out very good (relative to past data) both in the Eurozone as a whole (the expectations index came out almost 2 times higher than in December) and in Germany (the expectations index was +26.7 with a +15 forecast). So the growth of the euro looked quite natural. But for its continuation, this impulse will be clearly not enough.
In this regard, Thursday looks more promising: on this day, the ECB will announce its decision on the monetary policy parameters in the Eurozone. But we'll talk about this in tomorrow's review.
And today, the main event will be the announcement of the Bank of Canada’s decision on monetary policy parameters. Experts do not expect any changes. We are also inclined to believe that the bid will be left unchanged. But given the general trends in the development of the global economy in general and in Canada, in particular, there are risks of a rate reduction. Moreover, the reduction potential is far from exhausted, unlike the ECB or the Bank of Japan. Considering that the USDCAD pair has been treading water for two weeks now, fluctuating in the range of 50 points, there is a possibility of a strong movement in pairs with the Canadian dollar today. Moreover, the direction of movement is not obvious. Our recommendation in this regard is to work along the way. That is, if the pair goes above 1.3090 - we buy, if below 1.3020 - we sell.
ridethepig | EUR Market Commentary 2020.01.20EUR testing the 1.108/9x zone this morning as mentioned already earlier this month. At this point all soft hands who tried out guessing the reflationary flows and USD devaluation in December are washed out. Activity for the European open picked up, I remain bullish and have actively been adding longs in EURUSD. Stops can be kept comfortably below 1.103x while targets are located at 1.117x and 1.125x.
Remember we are tracking only three things:
1. the swing which is dictating the range
2. the opposing side which will become trapped
3. the swing behind the swing which is being trapped
The swinging process is attacking the opposition defending the swing you are playing. So in this case sellers are standing between the first targets at 1.125x - thus it would expose the threatened highs. If this breakout is absolute, i.e the swing may make a new higher high then we can talk of a complete swing like in this diagram:
For those wanting to check the Long-Term Fundamental chart:
Good luck all those selling USD, a lot of opportunities in G10 FX.
The week results: many events but few changesThe previous week was rich in important events, some of which can be formally classified as “game changers”, but judging by the dynamics of prices in the financial markets, the game did not undergo any special changes.
Let's start with the most global. The United States and China signed documents on the first part of the trade deal. But there was no euphoria - almost immediately it became clear that this was really only the first step towards solving the problem. Hundreds of billions of dollars in tariffs remain in force, and harm to the global economy will continue to be done. China's GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter of 2019 was minimal over the past 30 years, which is the best illustration of the previous phrase.
Other macroeconomic statistics released last week clearly confirmed this. The UK was the most disastrous data: GDP, industrial production, retail sales - all in the red and much worse than forecasts. Statistics from the US and the Eurozone also did not shine: industrial production in the States and the Eurozone came out in the negative zone.
In general, against the backdrop of such statistics, we were once again surprised at new historical highs in the US stock market and became even stronger in our belief in its imminent decline. Madness cannot last forever.
We already wrote about Putin’s initiatives and Medvedev’s resignation in Russia. We only note that the sale of the Russian ruble after the sale of shares in the US stock market and gold purchases, in our opinion, is one of the most promising positions in the financial markets as a whole.
Speaking of gold. After the gold sellers could not get anything out of the signing of the agreement between the USA and China, we became even more fond of buying this asset both within the day and in the medium term, especially after gold returned above 1550. The Japanese yen, although it looks weakened, also It is a good alternative to gold, but in the foreign exchange market.
Speaking about the upcoming week, we note that it promises to be even more interesting. It can be called the "Central Banks Week". The Bank of Japan, Bank of Canada and the ECB will announce their decisions on monetary policy parameters in their countries. And although experts do not expect global changes, given the weak form of the global economy, one can count on fairly “pigeon” sentiments in the ranks of the Central Banks.
EURNZD - Ascending Channel?We are presented with what appears so far to be an ascending channel on this pair, with higher timeframes displaying price up trending since late December.
By condensing to the hourly i have observed an area of consolidation around the lower trendline - with price unable to break below. With the trend bullish i am going to look to place buys if we are able to break the 1.6800 zone.
This being a psychological level may also give reason to why price is struggling to break above, however significant closure above this zone should give headway to go long to the upper trendline for continuation of the channel.
We must factor in the upcoming ECB interest rate decision this Thursday as it will likely be fundamentals which confirm direction.
Will be monitoring price action for long entry at the 1.68 zone with a profit level at the upper trendline of the ascending channel. Stops can be placed below the consolidation zone should price fake out and retrace.
Great R:R of 1:3+ on this trade should it meet our confirmations to enter.
ridethepig | The SwingWe are going to dig deeper into the concept of the wave/swing and how to create a positional strategy from a strictly technical sense.
After the latest test of 1.108/9x, which was so difficult for sellers with its positional issues, the next swing should appear "a piece of cake". I suspect this will lead you to ask whether imaginary protection is enough!? Be a man, no time to be afraid here on such a "protected" area. Seizing the breakup on the next swing has three stages:
1. the swing which is dictating the range
2. the opposing side which will become trapped
3. the swing behind the swing which is being trapped
The swinging process is attacking the opposition defending the swing you are playing. So in this case sellers are standing between the first targets at 1.125x - thus it would expose the threatened highs. If this breakout is absolute, i.e the swing may make a new higher high then we can talk of a complete swing.
Here the swing is only in the 'early game' stages, the swing in play is only "partially" possible.
How easy would it be if we went straight up (!!!) - more experienced traders would sooner stick their head inside a Crocodile's mouth 🐊. The slower the swing, the more respect. Bravery is needed, a swing without a foundation is a swing without power! As a rule, the plan here is to attack in such a way that we take immense control and achieve an attack next week.
As usual, thanks so much for keeping the likes and comments coming. Jump into the conversation below with your charts and ideas on EURUSD!
ridethepig | EUR Market Commentary 2020.01.17Eyes on the NY session here with Euro approaching the 1.108/9x lows, I will be actively buying today and sticking with the bullish view with targets located at 1.124/5x.
You will see how large hands absorb all of the selling pressure and eat up late breakdown players expected an effortless momentum trade, whereas the reality is the strength of macro forces in play defending the area and will be beautifully demonstrated. The Seller realises the error of his way too late and began to run to the hills. The comedy goes as follows:
For example in this position:
The strength of the view can be protected in the fact that it is immune from the opposing breakdown. The distant view is decisive:
The key point here is that the calendar is light so we are trading technical flows, I am buying the lows at 1.108/9x with targets at 1.124/5x for the highs. While stops can be kept below 1.100x as it will take a break below to demand reassessment of the bullish view.
Good luck all those in G10 FX.
ridethepig | EURCHF Market Commentary 2020.15.01CHF a clear winner in the G10 space has been a finding strong bid via smart money smelling the markets strength of conviction in the SNB ability to intervene decreasing. Positioning is far from stretched, meaning there is plenty of room left on the boat.
For those tracking the USDCHF flows 0.970x remains the key level to track:
The technical picture is clearer in EURCHF in my books, a clean breakdown in play with eyes on the C leg completing at 1.06xx. I have switched to the sell side after the recent breakdown and actively adding shorts in the 1.08xx handle.
The 1.06xx handle will become very attractive for longs next month... good luck all trading the selloff into end of Jan.
ridethepig | EUR Market Commentary 2020.13.01Currencies behave in set patterns, they prefer the comforts of routine. With DXY sitting at resistance, I don’t see room for any further near term gains in Dollar. More importantly we are approaching key value levels from the last Q and large corporates have been spotted on the bid in EURUSD.
Here the choice is between 1.128x and 1.21xx. The first results will be discovered faster and allow for USD bulls to form some defence...
The second move involved a double swing, automatically ruling out soft retail hands thus...
This is another known swing, completed in 5 waves from the 1.08xx lows. Double swings are purely a tactical weapon. For macro players they are terribly compelling; even the sluggish corporates will panic - driven to flight via global reflation.
We shall close this chapter with three sample charts.
1. In the macro breakdown I mapped some time ago, things came down to the following interesting positions:
Bulls have been successful with the breakout in the technical channel. Bears now played the profit taking game and ended in a pullback.
2. Note the powerful breakout cooking; bulls are already loaded and yet only a few weeks prior bears were safe and sound betting on the downside. The trend changed without retail being able to smell anything cooking !!!
3. The following well known daily chart was no less unnatural:
The somewhat theatrical gesture from bulls - has worked; bears who wish to defend forthwith, are finding the defence impossible. As long as DXY comfortably holds below the resistance I will maintain a core bullish view on Euro.
Look to buy dips into 1.1080 if you are not already in full positions.
Good luck all those on the buy side; as usual guys thanks so much for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, questions and your charts!
ridethepig | EURGBP Market Commentary 2020.01.10By now there should be no surprises with BOE coming out on the wires at the 0.853x which was BOE stress level on the cross via Hard & Extreme Brexit scenarios (both still on the table).
On the Euro side, selling has started to run out of steam and here the choice is between a breakout or more inside range trading. The first allows bulls to take charge once more; though the second allows room for more loading in the medium-term Pound shorts.
We are getting closer to protecting the highs in Pound by inserting heavy support in EURGBP and protecting the lows; here the natural targets come in at 0.872x with extensions 0.90xx and 0.95xx for those trading the macro swing.
The following well-know chart was played out before in EURGBP and this is no less imaginative:
We shall close this chapter with a really unnatural looking move, this theatrical gesture from Carney yesterday - I mean has worked; Pound bulls want to refute it forthwith, but so far it is turning out to be very difficult. Eyes on the Pound flush for Brexit impact.
Thanks as usual for keeping the likes and support coming, drop a line with any ideas or charts...
ridethepig | EUR Market Commentary 2020.09.01I demonstrated the flows earlier in the move before it played out, there was a winning move in December and the main line comes after:
It comes down to the pursuit of seller stops; they have been forced to flee, but the flight itself has been riddled with challenges as more and varied geopolitical risk is conjured up. As I pointed out in the first week of the new swing, the lows led to the pursuit:
EUR starting to look interesting again and I started to buy 1.1100/25 as the safe-haven bid into USD starting to fade. With a pinch of luck it will be the low of the week into NFP. Not assigning much room for further downside here, for the sake of practice, let us take another look at the position in the European macro diagram:
The technical flows which follow make clear the connection between the base and the breakout.
Good luck to those trading EURUSD in 2020 and already in longs or for those waiting patiently on the sidelines for the breakout to form. Buying here makes sense to me heading into NFP with 1.128x targets.
As usual thanks so much for keeping your support coming with likes and jumping into the comments!
ridethepig | The Breakout...Insufficient sizings followed through into USD after we cleared the kneejerk reaction in risk via US-Iran. The centre of the map at 1.128x is a strategically dubious setup and offers a great opportunity for EUR bulls to position early as we go into NFP ... how to attack from the wings .
By now you all know the necessary swing position we are trading;
What, however is less well-know is the strategic necessity to keep an eye on the macro themes, particularly in FX positions;
The centre of the technical map here is 1.128x. This means approach with warlike operations as we are never far away. I can remember the initial long-term map we positioned for here, which initially looked rather harmless as far as the flows were concerned; it occurred after the trade war exuberance:
The loss of momentum is important here for bears, because the position only appears to be an advanced one when in reality it can open up the entire swing. This is true of 90% of news flow positions.
Good luck all those trading the "opening move" ... EUR bulls can achieve the initiative with a skilful breakout. While invalidation will only come into play below 1.10 . As usual thanks so much for keeping your support coming with likes and jumping into the comments!
ridethepig | EUR Market Commentary 2020.01.07EUR ticking higher for the open as liquidity returns from the holiday period. On the whole I am happy with how the euro has held, while we discussed yesterday macro hands betting on the reflation theme are hardly moonwalking but we are making progress nonetheless.
Continue to buy dips here, I am becoming increasingly aggressive with sizings, however certainly aware that 1.12xx is proving difficult. A sustained failure to break here will see us retrace towards the lower end of 1.11xx otherwise its business as usual with the initial target at 1.125 (see below diagram).
Additionally, we can comfortably lean on the macro charts over the coming months as we see the green shoots reappearing in Europe:
Those mid and long term plays can continue to eventually target 1.21xx and 1.25xx in macro portfolios with most the hard work to begin the move largely complete:
While the Weekly technicals are much clearer:
Good luck to those trading EURUSD in 2020 and already in longs or for those waiting patiently on the sidelines for the momentum break to form.
As usual thanks so much for keeping your support coming with likes and jumping into the comments!