EURGBP looking to buy pullbacksHi Traders
All details about entry, stop and targets inside the video
Enjoy
Ecb
ridethepig | EUR Market Commentary 2020.13.01Currencies behave in set patterns, they prefer the comforts of routine. With DXY sitting at resistance, I don’t see room for any further near term gains in Dollar. More importantly we are approaching key value levels from the last Q and large corporates have been spotted on the bid in EURUSD.
Here the choice is between 1.128x and 1.21xx. The first results will be discovered faster and allow for USD bulls to form some defence...
The second move involved a double swing, automatically ruling out soft retail hands thus...
This is another known swing, completed in 5 waves from the 1.08xx lows. Double swings are purely a tactical weapon. For macro players they are terribly compelling; even the sluggish corporates will panic - driven to flight via global reflation.
We shall close this chapter with three sample charts.
1. In the macro breakdown I mapped some time ago, things came down to the following interesting positions:
Bulls have been successful with the breakout in the technical channel. Bears now played the profit taking game and ended in a pullback.
2. Note the powerful breakout cooking; bulls are already loaded and yet only a few weeks prior bears were safe and sound betting on the downside. The trend changed without retail being able to smell anything cooking !!!
3. The following well known daily chart was no less unnatural:
The somewhat theatrical gesture from bulls - has worked; bears who wish to defend forthwith, are finding the defence impossible. As long as DXY comfortably holds below the resistance I will maintain a core bullish view on Euro.
Look to buy dips into 1.1080 if you are not already in full positions.
Good luck all those on the buy side; as usual guys thanks so much for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, questions and your charts!
ridethepig | EURGBP Market Commentary 2020.01.10By now there should be no surprises with BOE coming out on the wires at the 0.853x which was BOE stress level on the cross via Hard & Extreme Brexit scenarios (both still on the table).
On the Euro side, selling has started to run out of steam and here the choice is between a breakout or more inside range trading. The first allows bulls to take charge once more; though the second allows room for more loading in the medium-term Pound shorts.
We are getting closer to protecting the highs in Pound by inserting heavy support in EURGBP and protecting the lows; here the natural targets come in at 0.872x with extensions 0.90xx and 0.95xx for those trading the macro swing.
The following well-know chart was played out before in EURGBP and this is no less imaginative:
We shall close this chapter with a really unnatural looking move, this theatrical gesture from Carney yesterday - I mean has worked; Pound bulls want to refute it forthwith, but so far it is turning out to be very difficult. Eyes on the Pound flush for Brexit impact.
Thanks as usual for keeping the likes and support coming, drop a line with any ideas or charts...
ridethepig | EUR Market Commentary 2020.09.01I demonstrated the flows earlier in the move before it played out, there was a winning move in December and the main line comes after:
It comes down to the pursuit of seller stops; they have been forced to flee, but the flight itself has been riddled with challenges as more and varied geopolitical risk is conjured up. As I pointed out in the first week of the new swing, the lows led to the pursuit:
EUR starting to look interesting again and I started to buy 1.1100/25 as the safe-haven bid into USD starting to fade. With a pinch of luck it will be the low of the week into NFP. Not assigning much room for further downside here, for the sake of practice, let us take another look at the position in the European macro diagram:
The technical flows which follow make clear the connection between the base and the breakout.
Good luck to those trading EURUSD in 2020 and already in longs or for those waiting patiently on the sidelines for the breakout to form. Buying here makes sense to me heading into NFP with 1.128x targets.
As usual thanks so much for keeping your support coming with likes and jumping into the comments!
ridethepig | The Breakout...Insufficient sizings followed through into USD after we cleared the kneejerk reaction in risk via US-Iran. The centre of the map at 1.128x is a strategically dubious setup and offers a great opportunity for EUR bulls to position early as we go into NFP ... how to attack from the wings .
By now you all know the necessary swing position we are trading;
What, however is less well-know is the strategic necessity to keep an eye on the macro themes, particularly in FX positions;
The centre of the technical map here is 1.128x. This means approach with warlike operations as we are never far away. I can remember the initial long-term map we positioned for here, which initially looked rather harmless as far as the flows were concerned; it occurred after the trade war exuberance:
The loss of momentum is important here for bears, because the position only appears to be an advanced one when in reality it can open up the entire swing. This is true of 90% of news flow positions.
Good luck all those trading the "opening move" ... EUR bulls can achieve the initiative with a skilful breakout. While invalidation will only come into play below 1.10 . As usual thanks so much for keeping your support coming with likes and jumping into the comments!
ridethepig | EUR Market Commentary 2020.01.07EUR ticking higher for the open as liquidity returns from the holiday period. On the whole I am happy with how the euro has held, while we discussed yesterday macro hands betting on the reflation theme are hardly moonwalking but we are making progress nonetheless.
Continue to buy dips here, I am becoming increasingly aggressive with sizings, however certainly aware that 1.12xx is proving difficult. A sustained failure to break here will see us retrace towards the lower end of 1.11xx otherwise its business as usual with the initial target at 1.125 (see below diagram).
Additionally, we can comfortably lean on the macro charts over the coming months as we see the green shoots reappearing in Europe:
Those mid and long term plays can continue to eventually target 1.21xx and 1.25xx in macro portfolios with most the hard work to begin the move largely complete:
While the Weekly technicals are much clearer:
Good luck to those trading EURUSD in 2020 and already in longs or for those waiting patiently on the sidelines for the momentum break to form.
As usual thanks so much for keeping your support coming with likes and jumping into the comments!
ridethepig | EUR Recycling We are talking here about a swing high which has to be broken. What can be doubtful here, you may ask... Of course we must direct the attacks towards the highs, but how does one do that if for some reason the highs cannot be shaken? Would it not be opportunistic to sweep the highs and entice profit taking before recycling longs. This is effectively what happened last week in EUR:
Here the bear is condemned to die for the common good, as a diversionary sacrifice. The only question markets are asking is a matter of "when" rather than "if" ... Since the Weekly chart we dissected in September, it would be helpful to start by reviewing the advance:
Sellers defence does not look very promising; after a possible escalation with US-Iran tensions or with FED USD devaluation via flooding supply side. So buyers play the breakout... exchanging the base for a new trend in 2020-2021:
As usual thanks sooo much for keeping your support coming with likes and jumping into the comments!
The impasse of monetary policy and the future crisis We have repeatedly noted in our reviews that the historical highs of the US stock market is direct merit of the ultra-soft monetary policy of the Fed. The Central Bank poured money into the US financial market, however, everything that it could achieve was the formation of a record-high bubble in the stock market.
So we emphasize the scale of what is happening. The total assets of the three major central banks of the world (Fed, ECB and Bank of Japan) in 2019 reached $ 14.5 trillion, which is 3.5 (!) much more than before the crisis in 2007-2009 (that time assets amounted $ 4 trillion).
The fact of growth by 3.5 times is already alarming. In theory, $ 10 trillion should have been aimed at ensuring the growth of the economies of the USA, EU and Japan. But here we have a very serious discrepancy: the GDP of these countries over the same period grew by $ 5.3 trillion. That is, $ 4.7 trillion did not go to the real sector.
The question is, where did the $ 4.7 trillion go? The answer is generally obvious - they went to the formation of price bubbles in different markets, mainly in the stock market and corporate debt market.
Any attempt to increase the injection of money will lead to further inflation of price bubbles. But what is the Fed doing? Instead of gradually reducing its balance sheet and pumping out "excess" money from the financial markets, in the fall of 2019 the Fed sharply increased its balance and plan to start 2020 with a huge injection of money. At the same time, the ECB continues quantitative easing policy (the Bank of Japan is doing the same).
That is, they persistently continue to do what does not work. Obviously, this cannot go on forever. They will have to abandon the flawed plan. This will lead to a sharp drop in demand in the stock market (extra money will go away) and, as a result, a sharp drop in prices.
Another important point characterizing the inefficiency of current monetary policies is the extremely deplorable state of the global economy. The forecast for its growth rate in 2019 is 3%. This is much lower than the 40-year average and quite close to the border of 2.5%, which is traditionally associated with the recession phase in the global economy.
At the same time, the US economy forecasts growth for 2020 in the region of 2%, the Eurozone and Japan - less than 1%. And this very clearly shows that the tactic of pouring money into the economy does not work.
So the prerequisites for a full-fledged crisis have formed: bubbles in the financial markets, an extremely weak real economy and an ineffective monetary policy, which also has completely exhausted its anti-crisis and stimulating potential. Let us multiply by growing populism, protectionism and a general crisis in the political system of almost any country and we have an extremely explosive mixture. That is, any serious shock and a house of cards will sprinkle.
Recall, we consider 2019 the last year of unjustified growth in the US stock market. Already in 2020, it will begin to adjust. The scale of correction is from 50% and higher. Given that in recent years, shares of technology companies in the US stock market have grown by an average of 7-8 times (and some issuers have shown growth of 10 or even 20 times), the US stock market will no doubt become the object of massive sales. We recommend participating in this process, selling both the market as a whole (Nasdaq index) and the shares of individual issuers (Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Oracle, etc.).
ridethepig | Bund Yields & Rate DifferentialsOn the other side of the Atlantic, a timely update to Bund yields with interest rate traders starting to position for 2020. The better prints from Germany are in the spotlight and this increase in interest is accentuated by the next fortnight of data deprivation. Here I am looking for DE10Y to re-test -0.234 next week. EUR$ remains in play to the topside with all eyes on 1.25 long term targets:
View on Bund Yields is shifting towards the buy side leaves me comfortable leaning into rallies with -0.077 and 0.081 as extension targets in the swing. Will get excited about the topside on a clean break of the highs in US Yields:
Overall, I want to be constructive on Bund yields here given relative ECB change via Lagarde, much tougher towards the fiscal side and improving relations. On the Brexit front, the restrictions that are like to be incorporated into the new round of positioning for Brexit transitioning flows (should be completed by H120), are likely to be "conditional" on US interference into future trade deals and thus not damaging for European assets till Q320.
For those tracking the rate differentials charts:
While those tracking the flows in FX will know the EUR$ map already:
The floor has been placed, expecting Euro to begin rallying as we enter into the final pages of the cycle. US numbers are holding but is clear they wont be able to hold more than Q1 2020. Smart money will now position before waters become choppy.
Thanks for keeping your support coming with likes and jumping into the comments with your charts and views.
Seige WarfareWith a breakout in play on the daily, the formation can advance towards 1.128x and 1.146x extension. The diagram below highlights the attempt shows little defence to transfer the attack on weekly:
Given what we have recognised on the technicals around the principled handicap bears have it makes it possible to construct the Macro chart:
When our opponent possesses a weakening defence it is worthwhile to push into the advance. In this case, after the Macro and Technical diagrams, we must continue to work the buy side with action towards the highlighted targets. As long as we are allowed to continue the grind higher, reassessment is only necessary below 1.110x. The weakness will appear miles in advance if it is the case and we can update the chart as we go.
Here the static weakness of the Dollar can be seen in detail, and in this case bears clearly with the advantage:
Remember when a cross shows static weakness, you should aggressively load against them and not be afraid to double the sizes. Now consider the positioning in the next diagram taken from " Apple in the worm "
Bulls encouraged Bear's hope that he was headed for a momentum break down, which mean exploitation for the macro swing was not all that difficult. Next came:
And now it is important for bulls that the break is tempered into an impulsive swing, the result of which will hold the key to unlocking the targets at 1.128x and 1.146x. Bulls are counting on the strength of the longer term Euro funded currency leg:
The correct march forward for bulls here is over the flank, so 1.197x and 1.125x resistance will be key to track for mid-term swings. On the other side, 1.093x and 1.087x will need to be taken in order to demand reassessment of the core bullish view I have constructed over the past three months. Here the win looks forced:
...Thanks all for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, charts and etc.
ridethepig | EURUSD 2020 Macro Map + Flow BreakdownAfter failing to clear 1.12xx before Christmas it is a good time to update the infamous macro chart. The floor is showing signs of permanently raising higher and with markets itching to play the reflation theme in H120, USD devaluation entering into play via Fed
flooding USD supply side and we are going see a sharp reversal triggered here with momentum on the channel break in Q120.
Lets start by digging deeper into how we got here; those who have followed my post since 2018 will remember the Long Term EURUSD chart:
After an exhaustive 2nd wave via protectionism fuelling trade war outflows and causing European macro numbers to ran out of steam, we FINALLY started to find a floor via ECB Tiering :
For those with an understanding in waves, you will notice the picture is a lot clearer on the weekly :
Although expensive with rollovers the lows have been very tradable, a loud well done all those who caught the initial breakout which we traded live here:
Support for USD is starting to run out... with all roads leading to weakness the highs in DXY are likely set for a very long time. We are trading the very highs in the range on the monthly chart, it's crunch time.
The USD 2019 Macro Chartbook:
We are sitting at the loading zone for year-end, for the flows and target-wise I am aiming for 1.16xx in Q420 and beyond 1.20xx into 2021. Invalidation for the trade will come in below 1.095xx and reassessment of the bullish view will only be necessary if we break through the gap from 2017 French Elections (both are highly unlikely to test now as USD devaluation has already begun via repo crisis).
Plenty of resistance above the market, I would expect chop to continue into January and with liquidity dry we can look to add to our longs when participants return to their desks on 27th. Good luck to those trading EURUSD in 2020 and already in longs or for those waiting patiently on the sidelines for the breakout to form.
As usual thanks sooo much for keeping your support coming with likes and jumping into the comments!
ridethepig | Getting our bearingsHere the bear is condemned to die for the common good, as a diversionary sacrifice. The only question markets are asking is a matter of "when" rather than "if" ... Since the Weekly chart we dissected in September, it would be helpful to start by reviewing the advance:
The correct march forward for bulls here over the flank, so 1.197x and 1.125x resistance will be key to track. On the other side, 1.093x and 1.087x will need to be taken in order to demand reassessment of the core bullish view I have constructed over the past three months.
I call this excessive generosity! All dips have been bough and those following are locked in with:
(i)
(ii)
After this march towards the border, remember to create an appetite, the bull must start the day with a hearty breakfast of the late and weak sellers going overboard on the Macro side:
We are sitting at the loading zone for year-end, for the flows and target-wise I am aiming for 1.16xx in Q420 and beyond 1.20xx into 2021. Invalidation for the trade will come in below the key support below and reassessment of the bullish view will only be necessary if we break through the gap from 2017 French Elections (both are highly unlikely to test now as USD devaluation has already begun via repo crisis).
On the USD side, here we are tracking the Monthly chart in Dollar from an Elliot Wave perspective; after 15 years of the previous bullish USD cycle we are reaching the end of the road with the USD devaluation acting as the global reflationary valve:
Good luck to those trading EURUSD in 2020 and already in longs or for those waiting patiently on the sidelines for the breakout to form.
As usual thanks so much for keeping your support coming with likes and jumping into the comments!
ridethepig | EUR Market Commentary 2019.11.27With Trump Administration desperately attempting to add momentum to the $ downside via another Fed cut and pressure on ECB, combined with a convergence in US-EU differentials will lead to a long-term rebound in EUR. I am expecting volatility to expand into year-end after completing the 76.4% retracement.
For those tracking the USD long-term chart from last month:
From a waves perspective a very important year on the macro front which opened up the major monthly reversal targets:
Initial monthly targets: 1.15
Long-term monthly targets: 1.20
Best of luck all those tracking EUR as we enter the final few pages in the year, and importantly, thanks all for keeping the likes and support coming.
ridethepig | EUR Market Commentary 2019.12.18Very little to update on EUR with flows on both sides clashing and causing minor chop inside the 1.11xx handle. Better numbers than expected from Germany this morning providing a gift for those adding on dips.
A quick review of the two positions we have traded live so far with the infamous "worm in the apple". A quick review of these charts:
As long as support at 1.110x holds I remain bullish looking for a break of 1.12xx to kill the year in FX markets. This will leave us in a very handsome position for the 2020 macro map:
Good luck all those buying EUR dips... Thanks for keeping the support coming!
AUDEURDespite the RBA setting a dovish when it comes to all things $AUD this spike in price action has caught my eye, enough for me to justify a pre-emptive move in the name of $AUD strength.
Trump's impeachment at the house will not have an impact because the senate where Republicans hold the majority will not vote against their own political leader (well at least that is what the general consensus is); however this does not make Trump look good in the public eye and with elections around the corner this threatens his re-election prospects.
Which is enough to garner a few smiles across the pacific in China, where a scenario of Trump not in office would surely improve Chinas seat at the table of negotiations.
ridethepig | EURGBP Market Commentary 2019.12.16...That was it for the day on the FX board. Highlights going to EURUSD chopping through the 1.11xx handle and continuing its slow grind higher. We will need assistance from European macro numbers to make the move impulsive in nature (no surprises today’s PMIs suggest some early signs of stabilising). Services continue to do the heavy lifting while manufacturing lags badly thanks to protectionism. I will continue to add on dips and ride the pig with reassessment only necessary below 1.110x.
GBPUSD … 1.35xx acting as major resistance after the country went back on the leadership merrygoround. There is a caveat to Pound shorts in the immediate term, with Johnson and a ruthless Downing Street in full control of the press and hitting the “right” headlines the positive narrative around Brexit will continue and therefore dips will be perceived as attractive too many. In any case well done all of those in shorts from the 1.35xx election highs … you will remember “ perception is more important than reality with FX ” … Remain nimble to take some chips off the table. A squeeze below 1.315x will make me excited.
Good luck all those trading EURGBP, GBPUSD and EURUSD. A superb lineup as we enter into the final stages of the year, thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments and questions!
Early play for Euro weakness Euro is not the strongest right now, and with what seems to be a currently risk favourable environment CADEUR long is a favourable addition to my portfolio.
This is a pre-emptive entry before the break will still have the potential to generate alpha via the swap rate.
ridethepig | MAJOR BREAKOUT IN PLAY FOR EURUSDWith Fed & ECB cleared a good time to update the EURUSD chartbook:
We have positioned live in two textbook cases:
For the technicals EURUSD remains rangebound till we break above the highs. Only a close above will suggest a more important base is in place and upgrade my thesis to a conviction. Plenty of resistance above the market, I see scope for 1.16 in 2020 but would expect this to attract some profit taking. Good luck to those trading EURUSD already in longs or for those waiting patiently on the sidelines for the breakout to form.
Thanks for keeping your support coming with likes and jumping into the comments!
Last week results & immediate plansThe markets finally went out of “hibernation” so we could observe fluctuation not by 40-50 pips, but by 100+ (well, or 400, as is the case with the pound on Friday).
Last week began with Trump's tweet about the successful completion of the first phase of negotiations with China. Recall, on December 15, the United States threatened to introduce additional tariffs on goods from China in the amount of $ 160 billion, which kept the markets in suspense. According to Fox Business, Washington and Beijing completed the "first phase" of the trade transaction, but its terms may not be publicized at all.
Formally, this is an occasion for optimism and the start of sales in safe-haven assets. Nevertheless, we consider the current equilibrium to be extremely fragile and continue to look for points to buy yen and gold on the intraday basis.
Then there was a meeting of the Fed, which showed that the US Central Bank is serious about holding a pause in monetary policy - everything suits US Central Bank in the current state of affairs in the economy.
But at the same time, the Fed will continue to flood financial markets with money through the Repo system. The Fed’s balance sheet reduction was replaced by a sharp expansion: according to the Fed, it plans to infuse $ 500 billion. If this happens, then by mid-January the Fed’s balance will increase its balance by 10% in just a month. As a result, the balance will exceed $ 4.5 trillion and reach new record levels. Honestly speaking, instead of gradually removing this money from the system, the Fed continues to increase its amount. In the end, it will end badly.
For the dollar, this, in our opinion, is a kind of sentence. Classic demand-supply chart: with a sharp increase in supply, the price should decline. So this week and for the foreseeable future, we will sell the dollar across the entire spectrum of the foreign exchange market.
The first ECB meeting chaired by Christine Lagarde ended with nothing - the monetary policy parameters did not change. But the new head of the ECB made it clear that it was time for the Central Bank to change its strategy of action and promised to present its vision by the beginning of 2020.
The main event of the week was the victory of the conservatives in the parliamentary elections in the UK. Many have already called this a kind of second Brexit referendum since voting for Johnson is a vote for his plan to leave the EU by January 31st. The pound on this occasion rose sharply on Friday, reaching 1.35. After that, we perceive some correction as an excellent chance for its cheaper purchases. Indeed, by and large 1.35 - this is not the limit of growth and the pound could well grow to the area of 1.40 and even higher.
As for the interesting perspective positions USDRUB purchasing (this will become a kind of hedge for other positions on the sale of the dollar against the euro, pound, Japanese yen and other base currencies).
In general, the week ahead is quite eventful: the announcement of the results of the Banks of England and Japan, GDP of the USA and Great Britain and so on. This means that it makes sense to start trading after a rather long period of hibernation in the foreign exchange market.
Britain Election Results, Lagarde Position and Trump TweetsElections in the UK, ECB decision and potential approach the finish line in the first phase of negotiations between the US and China. We will take these matters up one by one.
In Britain, parliamentary elections were held. The conservatives, led by current Prime Minister Boris Johnson, confidently won. This victory quite radically changes the political alignment in Britain, but for us, it is interesting primarily for Brexit. In this case, our basic version worked out perfectly: the “soft” Brexit option will be implemented based on the current version of the agreement between the EU and the UK. Naturally, the pound pulled up amid such results. Recall that in our reviews this week we actively recommended buying it. So congratulations to those of our readers who listen to our recommendations, with excellent results.
The ECB yesterday expectedly left monetary policy parameters unchanged. And the volume of the asset buyback program (quantitative easing) remained at the level of 20 billion euros.
The new head of the Central Bank Christine Lagarde said that the slowdown in the Eurozone economy has stopped. She could have been trusted, if not for yesterday’s data on industrial production in the Eurozone, which showed a decrease of 0.5%.
As for the other her statements, it is worth noting the intention to revise the ECB's monetary policy strategy, but some details will become clear not earlier than from the beginning of the next year.
But this did not contribute to the growth of the euro today. Brexit is a problem not only in the UK but also in the Eurozone. Accordingly, its resolution is positive for the euro too.
Yesterday we could observe the sales in yen pairs and gold, that is, in safe-haven assets. This sale was based on Trump's tweet that the United States came close to a deal with China.
Today we will buy safe-haven assets: first of all, sell EURJPY and USDJPY as a less risky option, but we will also look for points for buying gold.
Recall, on December 15, the United States may increase duties on goods from China. China will naturally response. Thus, Trump's tweet creates the illusion that there will be no further escalation. If the illusion is dispelled, it will provoke a sharp increase in demand for safe-haven assets.
EU: Medium-term outlookThought I would share outlook on where I think EUR/USD is headed longer term as we are heading into new year with new ECB President.
Fundamental:
EU Growth remains subdued entering Q4 with GDP at 0.2% ( QoQ ) - Retail Sales missing their mark down by 0.6%. - as well as Industrial Production and Factory Orders in Germany continued to fall
The world economy outlook remains sluggish and uncertain. This lowers demand for Euro area goods + services and also affects business sentiment and investment.
Next Thursday Christine Lagarde will make her debut where she should set the course of the ECB for the medium-term. Will EU emerge as a proactive economic stakeholder, pushing through more aggressive monetary and fiscal policies, or a passive bystander?
US GDP Q3 still outperforming other major economies at 2.1%
*Outlook for Global growth remains slow through end of Q2 2020 due to a number of factors; such as demographics, disruptive technology, climate change, Trade relations, etc.
*If/When the US-China and US-EU can manage to work through their trade deals, then business sentiment and uncertainty should ease and allow DXY to drop and EU to rise.
Technical:
Looking at weekly time frame price is struggling at a bearish 20 SMMA ( 1.10600 area ) with 100 and 200 SMMAs well above price, indicating longer term bear trend in tact.
1.09900 is next current Fib target for bears where price should retrace/ consolidate before breaking lower.
1.08150 price area has held fairly well in past and could be target for swing/ position holders to enter long...a break below could waterfall.
Currently in a Falling wedge which could play out as a reversal pattern...reversal won't be valid until price has a break and close above trend line on weekly time frame. Until then, Short til it's not!
Would love to hear your thoughts/ analysis
*Trade at your own risk and have a great year
-Krecioch
Pre ECB Rate Decision December 12th
"Dovish Draghi drags EUR/USD lower" has been one of this analyst's favorite headlines – but there is a new boss in town. Christine Lagarde has taken over the European Central Bank's presidency from Mario Draghi and now makes her first decision.
*Christine Lagarde makes her debut decision as ECB president.
*Investors will eye the president's performance and new economic forecasts.
*Lagarde may attempt to appease ECB hawks, driving the euro higher.
What is your view on the Euro and the US Dollar – bullish or bearish?
