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China’s epidemic, Brexit, the ECB, ruble, and oilWednesday was remembered by the next highs in the US stock market. The madness continues, but characteristic is the reluctance of gold to decline against this background. It turns out that buying gold is currently practically risk-free: with an increase in demand for risky assets, it does not fall, but at the same time, any concerns of investors instantly provoke an increase in asset prices. Speaking of investor concerns. The coronavirus epidemic in China seems to be gaining momentum and is at risk of spreading around the world. And although China’s official authorities claim that the situation is under control, there are risks of causing significant economic damage to the Chinese economy. Events take place at the time of the New Year holidays in China, which traditionally attract millions of tourists. In general, the chances of a trend continuing in a slowdown in China's economy are very high. Against such a background, gold purchases continue to be one of our favorite deals to date. Another top deal for us is the purchase of the British pound. The reasons are the same - Brexit is slowly but surely moving towards the implementation of the “soft” scenario, and this is an occasion for the growth of the pound in the region of 1.40. Yesterday, the GBPUSD pair jerked up due to the fact that the House of Lords of the British Parliament approved the Brexit bill. So on January 31, Great Britain will leave the European Union. From February, a transitional period will begin, which will last until the end of 2020. Bank Canals expectedly left the rate unchanged yesterday. However, the Canadian dollar was still under pressure, and the trading tactics proposed by us in yesterday's review worked out 100%. It is a pity that it can hardly be applied today in the case of the euro. The ECB will announce its decision on the parameters of monetary policy in the afternoon. Almost certainly everything will be unchanged. But comments can be quite unexpected. It is about the announcement of the details of the new monetary policy strategy of the Central Bank. As expected, it will include a phasing out of quantitative easing and the era of zero rates. If nothing changes, we do not expect a significant increase in the euro today. Even when changing the strategy of the Central Bank, it’s not about the months, but about the years that will be needed for its practical implementation. Downward pressure has clearly prevailed lately, and aggression on the part of the ECB has not come for years. The Russian ruble continues to decline in the foreign exchange market, but the potential for its reduction has not yet been fully exhausted. It still seems rather vulnerable to us, so we will use any attempts to strengthen the ruble for its sales. Oil yesterday declined quite aggressively and overcame an important level of support, which opens the way to a further decline. Considering that the markets again turned their attention to an oversupply of oil in 2020, we will refrain from aggressive asset purchases for now.
Long
by Trade24Fx
UK labor market gives the BoE's room for maneuverThe main event of yesterday in terms of macroeconomic statistics was the publication of statistics on the UK labor market. The data pleasantly surprised. Recall that we expected rather weak statistics - the British economy has been painfully unconvincing in recent times. Nevertheless, the UK economy for three months until November created 208K new jobs, which is almost 2 times higher than analysts' expectations. The average weekly wage also came out better than expected (+ 3.2%). Against the background of such data, supporters of the fact that the Bank of England will lower the rate at the next meeting sharply fell silent. Indeed, data on the labor market show that the Central Bank has no reason to rush. This sharply increased the chances that the bet will be left unchanged. The pound, of course, reacted positively to statistics and a shift in market expectations. Recall in this regard to our recommendation to buy a pound on the slopes. In general, for Europe yesterday was a good day. Indices from the ZEW Institute came out very good (relative to past data) both in the Eurozone as a whole (the expectations index came out almost 2 times higher than in December) and in Germany (the expectations index was +26.7 with a +15 forecast). So the growth of the euro looked quite natural. But for its continuation, this impulse will be clearly not enough. In this regard, Thursday looks more promising: on this day, the ECB will announce its decision on the monetary policy parameters in the Eurozone. But we'll talk about this in tomorrow's review. And today, the main event will be the announcement of the Bank of Canada’s decision on monetary policy parameters. Experts do not expect any changes. We are also inclined to believe that the bid will be left unchanged. But given the general trends in the development of the global economy in general and in Canada, in particular, there are risks of a rate reduction. Moreover, the reduction potential is far from exhausted, unlike the ECB or the Bank of Japan. Considering that the USDCAD pair has been treading water for two weeks now, fluctuating in the range of 50 points, there is a possibility of a strong movement in pairs with the Canadian dollar today. Moreover, the direction of movement is not obvious. Our recommendation in this regard is to work along the way. That is, if the pair goes above 1.3090 - we buy, if below 1.3020 - we sell.
Long
by Trade24Fx
ridethepig | EUR Market Commentary 2020.01.20EUR testing the 1.108/9x zone this morning as mentioned already earlier this month. At this point all soft hands who tried out guessing the reflationary flows and USD devaluation in December are washed out. Activity for the European open picked up, I remain bullish and have actively been adding longs in EURUSD. Stops can be kept comfortably below 1.103x while targets are located at 1.117x and 1.125x. Remember we are tracking only three things: 1. the swing which is dictating the range 2. the opposing side which will become trapped 3. the swing behind the swing which is being trapped The swinging process is attacking the opposition defending the swing you are playing. So in this case sellers are standing between the first targets at 1.125x - thus it would expose the threatened highs. If this breakout is absolute, i.e the swing may make a new higher high then we can talk of a complete swing like in this diagram: For those wanting to check the Long-Term Fundamental chart: Good luck all those selling USD, a lot of opportunities in G10 FX.
Long
by ridethepig
3
The week results: many events but few changesThe previous week was rich in important events, some of which can be formally classified as “game changers”, but judging by the dynamics of prices in the financial markets, the game did not undergo any special changes. Let's start with the most global. The United States and China signed documents on the first part of the trade deal. But there was no euphoria - almost immediately it became clear that this was really only the first step towards solving the problem. Hundreds of billions of dollars in tariffs remain in force, and harm to the global economy will continue to be done. China's GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter of 2019 was minimal over the past 30 years, which is the best illustration of the previous phrase. Other macroeconomic statistics released last week clearly confirmed this. The UK was the most disastrous data: GDP, industrial production, retail sales - all in the red and much worse than forecasts. Statistics from the US and the Eurozone also did not shine: industrial production in the States and the Eurozone came out in the negative zone. In general, against the backdrop of such statistics, we were once again surprised at new historical highs in the US stock market and became even stronger in our belief in its imminent decline. Madness cannot last forever. We already wrote about Putin’s initiatives and Medvedev’s resignation in Russia. We only note that the sale of the Russian ruble after the sale of shares in the US stock market and gold purchases, in our opinion, is one of the most promising positions in the financial markets as a whole. Speaking of gold. After the gold sellers could not get anything out of the signing of the agreement between the USA and China, we became even more fond of buying this asset both within the day and in the medium term, especially after gold returned above 1550. The Japanese yen, although it looks weakened, also It is a good alternative to gold, but in the foreign exchange market. Speaking about the upcoming week, we note that it promises to be even more interesting. It can be called the "Central Banks Week". The Bank of Japan, Bank of Canada and the ECB will announce their decisions on monetary policy parameters in their countries. And although experts do not expect global changes, given the weak form of the global economy, one can count on fairly “pigeon” sentiments in the ranks of the Central Banks.
Short
by Trade24Fx
EURNZD - Ascending Channel?We are presented with what appears so far to be an ascending channel on this pair, with higher timeframes displaying price up trending since late December. By condensing to the hourly i have observed an area of consolidation around the lower trendline - with price unable to break below. With the trend bullish i am going to look to place buys if we are able to break the 1.6800 zone. This being a psychological level may also give reason to why price is struggling to break above, however significant closure above this zone should give headway to go long to the upper trendline for continuation of the channel. We must factor in the upcoming ECB interest rate decision this Thursday as it will likely be fundamentals which confirm direction. Will be monitoring price action for long entry at the 1.68 zone with a profit level at the upper trendline of the ascending channel. Stops can be placed below the consolidation zone should price fake out and retrace. Great R:R of 1:3+ on this trade should it meet our confirmations to enter.
Long
by MMQ_FX
ridethepig | The SwingWe are going to dig deeper into the concept of the wave/swing and how to create a positional strategy from a strictly technical sense. After the latest test of 1.108/9x, which was so difficult for sellers with its positional issues, the next swing should appear "a piece of cake". I suspect this will lead you to ask whether imaginary protection is enough!? Be a man, no time to be afraid here on such a "protected" area. Seizing the breakup on the next swing has three stages: 1. the swing which is dictating the range 2. the opposing side which will become trapped 3. the swing behind the swing which is being trapped The swinging process is attacking the opposition defending the swing you are playing. So in this case sellers are standing between the first targets at 1.125x - thus it would expose the threatened highs. If this breakout is absolute, i.e the swing may make a new higher high then we can talk of a complete swing. Here the swing is only in the 'early game' stages, the swing in play is only "partially" possible. How easy would it be if we went straight up (!!!) - more experienced traders would sooner stick their head inside a Crocodile's mouth 🐊. The slower the swing, the more respect. Bravery is needed, a swing without a foundation is a swing without power! As a rule, the plan here is to attack in such a way that we take immense control and achieve an attack next week. As usual, thanks so much for keeping the likes and comments coming. Jump into the conversation below with your charts and ideas on EURUSD!
Long
by ridethepig
11
ridethepig | EUR Market Commentary 2020.01.17Eyes on the NY session here with Euro approaching the 1.108/9x lows, I will be actively buying today and sticking with the bullish view with targets located at 1.124/5x. You will see how large hands absorb all of the selling pressure and eat up late breakdown players expected an effortless momentum trade, whereas the reality is the strength of macro forces in play defending the area and will be beautifully demonstrated. The Seller realises the error of his way too late and began to run to the hills. The comedy goes as follows: For example in this position: The strength of the view can be protected in the fact that it is immune from the opposing breakdown. The distant view is decisive: The key point here is that the calendar is light so we are trading technical flows, I am buying the lows at 1.108/9x with targets at 1.124/5x for the highs. While stops can be kept below 1.100x as it will take a break below to demand reassessment of the bullish view. Good luck all those in G10 FX.
Long
by ridethepig
6
ridethepig | EURCHF Market Commentary 2020.15.01CHF a clear winner in the G10 space has been a finding strong bid via smart money smelling the markets strength of conviction in the SNB ability to intervene decreasing. Positioning is far from stretched, meaning there is plenty of room left on the boat. For those tracking the USDCHF flows 0.970x remains the key level to track: The technical picture is clearer in EURCHF in my books, a clean breakdown in play with eyes on the C leg completing at 1.06xx. I have switched to the sell side after the recent breakdown and actively adding shorts in the 1.08xx handle. The 1.06xx handle will become very attractive for longs next month... good luck all trading the selloff into end of Jan.
Short
by ridethepig
ridethepig | EUR Market Commentary 2020.13.01Currencies behave in set patterns, they prefer the comforts of routine. With DXY sitting at resistance, I don’t see room for any further near term gains in Dollar. More importantly we are approaching key value levels from the last Q and large corporates have been spotted on the bid in EURUSD. Here the choice is between 1.128x and 1.21xx. The first results will be discovered faster and allow for USD bulls to form some defence... The second move involved a double swing, automatically ruling out soft retail hands thus... This is another known swing, completed in 5 waves from the 1.08xx lows. Double swings are purely a tactical weapon. For macro players they are terribly compelling; even the sluggish corporates will panic - driven to flight via global reflation. We shall close this chapter with three sample charts. 1. In the macro breakdown I mapped some time ago, things came down to the following interesting positions: Bulls have been successful with the breakout in the technical channel. Bears now played the profit taking game and ended in a pullback. 2. Note the powerful breakout cooking; bulls are already loaded and yet only a few weeks prior bears were safe and sound betting on the downside. The trend changed without retail being able to smell anything cooking !!! 3. The following well known daily chart was no less unnatural: The somewhat theatrical gesture from bulls - has worked; bears who wish to defend forthwith, are finding the defence impossible. As long as DXY comfortably holds below the resistance I will maintain a core bullish view on Euro. Look to buy dips into 1.1080 if you are not already in full positions. Good luck all those on the buy side; as usual guys thanks so much for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, questions and your charts!
Long
by ridethepig
2
ridethepig | EURGBP Market Commentary 2020.01.10By now there should be no surprises with BOE coming out on the wires at the 0.853x which was BOE stress level on the cross via Hard & Extreme Brexit scenarios (both still on the table). On the Euro side, selling has started to run out of steam and here the choice is between a breakout or more inside range trading. The first allows bulls to take charge once more; though the second allows room for more loading in the medium-term Pound shorts. We are getting closer to protecting the highs in Pound by inserting heavy support in EURGBP and protecting the lows; here the natural targets come in at 0.872x with extensions 0.90xx and 0.95xx for those trading the macro swing. The following well-know chart was played out before in EURGBP and this is no less imaginative: We shall close this chapter with a really unnatural looking move, this theatrical gesture from Carney yesterday - I mean has worked; Pound bulls want to refute it forthwith, but so far it is turning out to be very difficult. Eyes on the Pound flush for Brexit impact. Thanks as usual for keeping the likes and support coming, drop a line with any ideas or charts...
Long
by ridethepig
ridethepig | EUR Market Commentary 2020.09.01I demonstrated the flows earlier in the move before it played out, there was a winning move in December and the main line comes after: It comes down to the pursuit of seller stops; they have been forced to flee, but the flight itself has been riddled with challenges as more and varied geopolitical risk is conjured up. As I pointed out in the first week of the new swing, the lows led to the pursuit: EUR starting to look interesting again and I started to buy 1.1100/25 as the safe-haven bid into USD starting to fade. With a pinch of luck it will be the low of the week into NFP. Not assigning much room for further downside here, for the sake of practice, let us take another look at the position in the European macro diagram: The technical flows which follow make clear the connection between the base and the breakout. Good luck to those trading EURUSD in 2020 and already in longs or for those waiting patiently on the sidelines for the breakout to form. Buying here makes sense to me heading into NFP with 1.128x targets. As usual thanks so much for keeping your support coming with likes and jumping into the comments!
Long
by ridethepig
1
ridethepig | The Breakout...Insufficient sizings followed through into USD after we cleared the kneejerk reaction in risk via US-Iran. The centre of the map at 1.128x is a strategically dubious setup and offers a great opportunity for EUR bulls to position early as we go into NFP ... how to attack from the wings . By now you all know the necessary swing position we are trading; What, however is less well-know is the strategic necessity to keep an eye on the macro themes, particularly in FX positions; The centre of the technical map here is 1.128x. This means approach with warlike operations as we are never far away. I can remember the initial long-term map we positioned for here, which initially looked rather harmless as far as the flows were concerned; it occurred after the trade war exuberance: The loss of momentum is important here for bears, because the position only appears to be an advanced one when in reality it can open up the entire swing. This is true of 90% of news flow positions. Good luck all those trading the "opening move" ... EUR bulls can achieve the initiative with a skilful breakout. While invalidation will only come into play below 1.10 . As usual thanks so much for keeping your support coming with likes and jumping into the comments!
Long
by ridethepig
2
ridethepig | EUR Market Commentary 2020.01.07EUR ticking higher for the open as liquidity returns from the holiday period. On the whole I am happy with how the euro has held, while we discussed yesterday macro hands betting on the reflation theme are hardly moonwalking but we are making progress nonetheless. Continue to buy dips here, I am becoming increasingly aggressive with sizings, however certainly aware that 1.12xx is proving difficult. A sustained failure to break here will see us retrace towards the lower end of 1.11xx otherwise its business as usual with the initial target at 1.125 (see below diagram). Additionally, we can comfortably lean on the macro charts over the coming months as we see the green shoots reappearing in Europe: Those mid and long term plays can continue to eventually target 1.21xx and 1.25xx in macro portfolios with most the hard work to begin the move largely complete: While the Weekly technicals are much clearer: Good luck to those trading EURUSD in 2020 and already in longs or for those waiting patiently on the sidelines for the momentum break to form. As usual thanks so much for keeping your support coming with likes and jumping into the comments!
Long
by ridethepig
1
ridethepig | EUR Recycling We are talking here about a swing high which has to be broken. What can be doubtful here, you may ask... Of course we must direct the attacks towards the highs, but how does one do that if for some reason the highs cannot be shaken? Would it not be opportunistic to sweep the highs and entice profit taking before recycling longs. This is effectively what happened last week in EUR: Here the bear is condemned to die for the common good, as a diversionary sacrifice. The only question markets are asking is a matter of "when" rather than "if" ... Since the Weekly chart we dissected in September, it would be helpful to start by reviewing the advance: Sellers defence does not look very promising; after a possible escalation with US-Iran tensions or with FED USD devaluation via flooding supply side. So buyers play the breakout... exchanging the base for a new trend in 2020-2021: As usual thanks sooo much for keeping your support coming with likes and jumping into the comments!
Long
by ridethepig
4
The impasse of monetary policy and the future crisis We have repeatedly noted in our reviews that the historical highs of the US stock market is direct merit of the ultra-soft monetary policy of the Fed. The Central Bank poured money into the US financial market, however, everything that it could achieve was the formation of a record-high bubble in the stock market. So we emphasize the scale of what is happening. The total assets of the three major central banks of the world (Fed, ECB and Bank of Japan) in 2019 reached $ 14.5 trillion, which is 3.5 (!) much more than before the crisis in 2007-2009 (that time assets amounted $ 4 trillion). The fact of growth by 3.5 times is already alarming. In theory, $ 10 trillion should have been aimed at ensuring the growth of the economies of the USA, EU and Japan. But here we have a very serious discrepancy: the GDP of these countries over the same period grew by $ 5.3 trillion. That is, $ 4.7 trillion did not go to the real sector. The question is, where did the $ 4.7 trillion go? The answer is generally obvious - they went to the formation of price bubbles in different markets, mainly in the stock market and corporate debt market. Any attempt to increase the injection of money will lead to further inflation of price bubbles. But what is the Fed doing? Instead of gradually reducing its balance sheet and pumping out "excess" money from the financial markets, in the fall of 2019 the Fed sharply increased its balance and plan to start 2020 with a huge injection of money. At the same time, the ECB continues quantitative easing policy (the Bank of Japan is doing the same). That is, they persistently continue to do what does not work. Obviously, this cannot go on forever. They will have to abandon the flawed plan. This will lead to a sharp drop in demand in the stock market (extra money will go away) and, as a result, a sharp drop in prices. Another important point characterizing the inefficiency of current monetary policies is the extremely deplorable state of the global economy. The forecast for its growth rate in 2019 is 3%. This is much lower than the 40-year average and quite close to the border of 2.5%, which is traditionally associated with the recession phase in the global economy. At the same time, the US economy forecasts growth for 2020 in the region of 2%, the Eurozone and Japan - less than 1%. And this very clearly shows that the tactic of pouring money into the economy does not work. So the prerequisites for a full-fledged crisis have formed: bubbles in the financial markets, an extremely weak real economy and an ineffective monetary policy, which also has completely exhausted its anti-crisis and stimulating potential. Let us multiply by growing populism, protectionism and a general crisis in the political system of almost any country and we have an extremely explosive mixture. That is, any serious shock and a house of cards will sprinkle. Recall, we consider 2019 the last year of unjustified growth in the US stock market. Already in 2020, it will begin to adjust. The scale of correction is from 50% and higher. Given that in recent years, shares of technology companies in the US stock market have grown by an average of 7-8 times (and some issuers have shown growth of 10 or even 20 times), the US stock market will no doubt become the object of massive sales. We recommend participating in this process, selling both the market as a whole (Nasdaq index) and the shares of individual issuers (Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Oracle, etc.).
NASDAQ:NDXShort
by Trade24Fx
4
ridethepig | Bund Yields & Rate DifferentialsOn the other side of the Atlantic, a timely update to Bund yields with interest rate traders starting to position for 2020. The better prints from Germany are in the spotlight and this increase in interest is accentuated by the next fortnight of data deprivation. Here I am looking for DE10Y to re-test -0.234 next week. EUR$ remains in play to the topside with all eyes on 1.25 long term targets: View on Bund Yields is shifting towards the buy side leaves me comfortable leaning into rallies with -0.077 and 0.081 as extension targets in the swing. Will get excited about the topside on a clean break of the highs in US Yields: Overall, I want to be constructive on Bund yields here given relative ECB change via Lagarde, much tougher towards the fiscal side and improving relations. On the Brexit front, the restrictions that are like to be incorporated into the new round of positioning for Brexit transitioning flows (should be completed by H120), are likely to be "conditional" on US interference into future trade deals and thus not damaging for European assets till Q320. For those tracking the rate differentials charts: While those tracking the flows in FX will know the EUR$ map already: The floor has been placed, expecting Euro to begin rallying as we enter into the final pages of the cycle. US numbers are holding but is clear they wont be able to hold more than Q1 2020. Smart money will now position before waters become choppy. Thanks for keeping your support coming with likes and jumping into the comments with your charts and views.
TVC:DE10YLong
by ridethepig
Seige WarfareWith a breakout in play on the daily, the formation can advance towards 1.128x and 1.146x extension. The diagram below highlights the attempt shows little defence to transfer the attack on weekly: Given what we have recognised on the technicals around the principled handicap bears have it makes it possible to construct the Macro chart: When our opponent possesses a weakening defence it is worthwhile to push into the advance. In this case, after the Macro and Technical diagrams, we must continue to work the buy side with action towards the highlighted targets. As long as we are allowed to continue the grind higher, reassessment is only necessary below 1.110x. The weakness will appear miles in advance if it is the case and we can update the chart as we go. Here the static weakness of the Dollar can be seen in detail, and in this case bears clearly with the advantage: Remember when a cross shows static weakness, you should aggressively load against them and not be afraid to double the sizes. Now consider the positioning in the next diagram taken from " Apple in the worm " Bulls encouraged Bear's hope that he was headed for a momentum break down, which mean exploitation for the macro swing was not all that difficult. Next came: And now it is important for bulls that the break is tempered into an impulsive swing, the result of which will hold the key to unlocking the targets at 1.128x and 1.146x. Bulls are counting on the strength of the longer term Euro funded currency leg: The correct march forward for bulls here is over the flank, so 1.197x and 1.125x resistance will be key to track for mid-term swings. On the other side, 1.093x and 1.087x will need to be taken in order to demand reassessment of the core bullish view I have constructed over the past three months. Here the win looks forced: ...Thanks all for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, charts and etc.
Long
by ridethepig
7
ridethepig | EURUSD 2020 Macro Map + Flow BreakdownAfter failing to clear 1.12xx before Christmas it is a good time to update the infamous macro chart. The floor is showing signs of permanently raising higher and with markets itching to play the reflation theme in H120, USD devaluation entering into play via Fed flooding USD supply side and we are going see a sharp reversal triggered here with momentum on the channel break in Q120. Lets start by digging deeper into how we got here; those who have followed my post since 2018 will remember the Long Term EURUSD chart: After an exhaustive 2nd wave via protectionism fuelling trade war outflows and causing European macro numbers to ran out of steam, we FINALLY started to find a floor via ECB Tiering : For those with an understanding in waves, you will notice the picture is a lot clearer on the weekly : Although expensive with rollovers the lows have been very tradable, a loud well done all those who caught the initial breakout which we traded live here: Support for USD is starting to run out... with all roads leading to weakness the highs in DXY are likely set for a very long time. We are trading the very highs in the range on the monthly chart, it's crunch time. The USD 2019 Macro Chartbook: We are sitting at the loading zone for year-end, for the flows and target-wise I am aiming for 1.16xx in Q420 and beyond 1.20xx into 2021. Invalidation for the trade will come in below 1.095xx and reassessment of the bullish view will only be necessary if we break through the gap from 2017 French Elections (both are highly unlikely to test now as USD devaluation has already begun via repo crisis). Plenty of resistance above the market, I would expect chop to continue into January and with liquidity dry we can look to add to our longs when participants return to their desks on 27th. Good luck to those trading EURUSD in 2020 and already in longs or for those waiting patiently on the sidelines for the breakout to form. As usual thanks sooo much for keeping your support coming with likes and jumping into the comments!
Long
by ridethepig
19
ridethepig | Getting our bearingsHere the bear is condemned to die for the common good, as a diversionary sacrifice. The only question markets are asking is a matter of "when" rather than "if" ... Since the Weekly chart we dissected in September, it would be helpful to start by reviewing the advance: The correct march forward for bulls here over the flank, so 1.197x and 1.125x resistance will be key to track. On the other side, 1.093x and 1.087x will need to be taken in order to demand reassessment of the core bullish view I have constructed over the past three months. I call this excessive generosity! All dips have been bough and those following are locked in with: (i) (ii) After this march towards the border, remember to create an appetite, the bull must start the day with a hearty breakfast of the late and weak sellers going overboard on the Macro side: We are sitting at the loading zone for year-end, for the flows and target-wise I am aiming for 1.16xx in Q420 and beyond 1.20xx into 2021. Invalidation for the trade will come in below the key support below and reassessment of the bullish view will only be necessary if we break through the gap from 2017 French Elections (both are highly unlikely to test now as USD devaluation has already begun via repo crisis). On the USD side, here we are tracking the Monthly chart in Dollar from an Elliot Wave perspective; after 15 years of the previous bullish USD cycle we are reaching the end of the road with the USD devaluation acting as the global reflationary valve: Good luck to those trading EURUSD in 2020 and already in longs or for those waiting patiently on the sidelines for the breakout to form. As usual thanks so much for keeping your support coming with likes and jumping into the comments!
Long
by ridethepig
4
ridethepig | EUR Market Commentary 2019.11.27With Trump Administration desperately attempting to add momentum to the $ downside via another Fed cut and pressure on ECB, combined with a convergence in US-EU differentials will lead to a long-term rebound in EUR. I am expecting volatility to expand into year-end after completing the 76.4% retracement. For those tracking the USD long-term chart from last month: From a waves perspective a very important year on the macro front which opened up the major monthly reversal targets: Initial monthly targets: 1.15 Long-term monthly targets: 1.20 Best of luck all those tracking EUR as we enter the final few pages in the year, and importantly, thanks all for keeping the likes and support coming.
Long
by ridethepig
ridethepig | EUR Market Commentary 2019.12.18Very little to update on EUR with flows on both sides clashing and causing minor chop inside the 1.11xx handle. Better numbers than expected from Germany this morning providing a gift for those adding on dips. A quick review of the two positions we have traded live so far with the infamous "worm in the apple". A quick review of these charts: As long as support at 1.110x holds I remain bullish looking for a break of 1.12xx to kill the year in FX markets. This will leave us in a very handsome position for the 2020 macro map: Good luck all those buying EUR dips... Thanks for keeping the support coming!
Long
by ridethepig
11