Get started

Ecb

ridethepig | MAJOR BREAKOUT IN PLAY FOR EURUSDWith Fed & ECB cleared a good time to update the EURUSD chartbook: We have positioned live in two textbook cases: For the technicals EURUSD remains rangebound till we break above the highs. Only a close above will suggest a more important base is in place and upgrade my thesis to a conviction. Plenty of resistance above the market, I see scope for 1.16 in 2020 but would expect this to attract some profit taking. Good luck to those trading EURUSD already in longs or for those waiting patiently on the sidelines for the breakout to form. Thanks for keeping your support coming with likes and jumping into the comments!
Long
by ridethepig
4
Last week results & immediate plansThe markets finally went out of “hibernation” so we could observe fluctuation not by 40-50 pips, but by 100+ (well, or 400, as is the case with the pound on Friday). Last week began with Trump's tweet about the successful completion of the first phase of negotiations with China. Recall, on December 15, the United States threatened to introduce additional tariffs on goods from China in the amount of $ 160 billion, which kept the markets in suspense. According to Fox Business, Washington and Beijing completed the "first phase" of the trade transaction, but its terms may not be publicized at all. Formally, this is an occasion for optimism and the start of sales in safe-haven assets. Nevertheless, we consider the current equilibrium to be extremely fragile and continue to look for points to buy yen and gold on the intraday basis. Then there was a meeting of the Fed, which showed that the US Central Bank is serious about holding a pause in monetary policy - everything suits US Central Bank in the current state of affairs in the economy. But at the same time, the Fed will continue to flood financial markets with money through the Repo system. The Fed’s balance sheet reduction was replaced by a sharp expansion: according to the Fed, it plans to infuse $ 500 billion. If this happens, then by mid-January the Fed’s balance will increase its balance by 10% in just a month. As a result, the balance will exceed $ 4.5 trillion and reach new record levels. Honestly speaking, instead of gradually removing this money from the system, the Fed continues to increase its amount. In the end, it will end badly. For the dollar, this, in our opinion, is a kind of sentence. Classic demand-supply chart: with a sharp increase in supply, the price should decline. So this week and for the foreseeable future, we will sell the dollar across the entire spectrum of the foreign exchange market. The first ECB meeting chaired by Christine Lagarde ended with nothing - the monetary policy parameters did not change. But the new head of the ECB made it clear that it was time for the Central Bank to change its strategy of action and promised to present its vision by the beginning of 2020. The main event of the week was the victory of the conservatives in the parliamentary elections in the UK. Many have already called this a kind of second Brexit referendum since voting for Johnson is a vote for his plan to leave the EU by January 31st. The pound on this occasion rose sharply on Friday, reaching 1.35. After that, we perceive some correction as an excellent chance for its cheaper purchases. Indeed, by and large 1.35 - this is not the limit of growth and the pound could well grow to the area of 1.40 and even higher. As for the interesting perspective positions USDRUB purchasing (this will become a kind of hedge for other positions on the sale of the dollar against the euro, pound, Japanese yen and other base currencies). In general, the week ahead is quite eventful: the announcement of the results of the Banks of England and Japan, GDP of the USA and Great Britain and so on. This means that it makes sense to start trading after a rather long period of hibernation in the foreign exchange market.
Long
by Trade24Fx
Britain Election Results, Lagarde Position and Trump TweetsElections in the UK, ECB decision and potential approach the finish line in the first phase of negotiations between the US and China. We will take these matters up one by one. In Britain, parliamentary elections were held. The conservatives, led by current Prime Minister Boris Johnson, confidently won. This victory quite radically changes the political alignment in Britain, but for us, it is interesting primarily for Brexit. In this case, our basic version worked out perfectly: the “soft” Brexit option will be implemented based on the current version of the agreement between the EU and the UK. Naturally, the pound pulled up amid such results. Recall that in our reviews this week we actively recommended buying it. So congratulations to those of our readers who listen to our recommendations, with excellent results. The ECB yesterday expectedly left monetary policy parameters unchanged. And the volume of the asset buyback program (quantitative easing) remained at the level of 20 billion euros. The new head of the Central Bank Christine Lagarde said that the slowdown in the Eurozone economy has stopped. She could have been trusted, if not for yesterday’s data on industrial production in the Eurozone, which showed a decrease of 0.5%. As for the other her statements, it is worth noting the intention to revise the ECB's monetary policy strategy, but some details will become clear not earlier than from the beginning of the next year. But this did not contribute to the growth of the euro today. Brexit is a problem not only in the UK but also in the Eurozone. Accordingly, its resolution is positive for the euro too. Yesterday we could observe the sales in yen pairs and gold, that is, in safe-haven assets. This sale was based on Trump's tweet that the United States came close to a deal with China. Today we will buy safe-haven assets: first of all, sell EURJPY and USDJPY as a less risky option, but we will also look for points for buying gold. Recall, on December 15, the United States may increase duties on goods from China. China will naturally response. Thus, Trump's tweet creates the illusion that there will be no further escalation. If the illusion is dispelled, it will provoke a sharp increase in demand for safe-haven assets.
Long
by Trade24Fx
EU: Medium-term outlookThought I would share outlook on where I think EUR/USD is headed longer term as we are heading into new year with new ECB President. Fundamental: EU Growth remains subdued entering Q4 with GDP at 0.2% ( QoQ ) - Retail Sales missing their mark down by 0.6%. - as well as Industrial Production and Factory Orders in Germany continued to fall The world economy outlook remains sluggish and uncertain. This lowers demand for Euro area goods + services and also affects business sentiment and investment. Next Thursday Christine Lagarde will make her debut where she should set the course of the ECB for the medium-term. Will EU emerge as a proactive economic stakeholder, pushing through more aggressive monetary and fiscal policies, or a passive bystander? US GDP Q3 still outperforming other major economies at 2.1% *Outlook for Global growth remains slow through end of Q2 2020 due to a number of factors; such as demographics, disruptive technology, climate change, Trade relations, etc. *If/When the US-China and US-EU can manage to work through their trade deals, then business sentiment and uncertainty should ease and allow DXY to drop and EU to rise. Technical: Looking at weekly time frame price is struggling at a bearish 20 SMMA ( 1.10600 area ) with 100 and 200 SMMAs well above price, indicating longer term bear trend in tact. 1.09900 is next current Fib target for bears where price should retrace/ consolidate before breaking lower. 1.08150 price area has held fairly well in past and could be target for swing/ position holders to enter long...a break below could waterfall. Currently in a Falling wedge which could play out as a reversal pattern...reversal won't be valid until price has a break and close above trend line on weekly time frame. Until then, Short til it's not! Would love to hear your thoughts/ analysis *Trade at your own risk and have a great year -Krecioch
by Krecioch
Pre ECB Rate Decision December 12th "Dovish Draghi drags EUR/USD lower" has been one of this analyst's favorite headlines – but there is a new boss in town. Christine Lagarde has taken over the European Central Bank's presidency from Mario Draghi and now makes her first decision. *Christine Lagarde makes her debut decision as ECB president. *Investors will eye the president's performance and new economic forecasts. *Lagarde may attempt to appease ECB hawks, driving the euro higher. What is your view on the Euro and the US Dollar – bullish or bearish?
Long
by PoshTraderAnalysis
UK election results and ECB decisionConcluding a year that saw the central bank take down its benchmark rate three times, the Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday met widely held expectations and kept the funds' rate at the same level. The Fed is completely satisfied with the current state of things. As a result, markets do not expect any changes in the monetary policy until the end of 2020. The dollar was sold out following the Fed’s decision and Powell’s comments. Our position on the dollar today is unchanged - we are looking for points for its sales. Another promising position for today is pound purchases. General election 2019 polling day today Today, December 12. Its results can change not only the political situation in the country but also affect Brexit. Moreover, its influence can be quite diverse and even opposite. Detailed analytics on this issue is given in yesterday’s review. Here, we note that, in our opinion, the balance of threats/opportunities and profits/risks is biased towards profits and opportunities. Christine Lagarde faces her first real test at ECB debut meeting. The era of Draghi is over, but what Lagarde will remember is still unclear. If she decides to express her vision and strategy, movements may well be in pairs with the euro. As for the parameters of monetary policy, today we do not expect any changes. So today it’s worthwhile to be more careful with the euro, on the one hand, be more careful, and on the other, the euro may well get out of hibernation, which will provide opportunities for earning. And finally, a few words about the oil market. IPO Saudi Aramco the initial public offering is expected to raise at least $25.6 billion, making it the largest ever with a capitalization of $ 1.88 trillion. The oil market more than calmly reacted to this news. Nevertheless, so far our position on oil remains unchanged - we will continue to search for opportunities for oil purchases on the intraday basis.
by Trade24Fx
Strange last week, the OPEC decision & near futureThe reasons for the markets getting out of “hibernation” are an active news background interspersed with the news. Recall, it was launched by Trump's decision to impose tariffs on steel from Argentina and Brazil and at the same time accuse these countries of currency manipulation. What was perceived by us as an expansion of the trade war and a possible beginning of the currency war. Well, the week ended with the publication of statistics on the US labour market, as well as the completion of the OPEC meeting. Let's start with statistics on the US labour market. Honestly, it surprised us. The numbers came out abnormally high for the current reality of the US economy (+ 266K with a forecast + 180K). Also, the unemployment rate fell to its record low marks (3.5%). The growth of the dollar against the backdrop of such excellent data was logical. But, given the anomalous nature of the given data, we would not be in a hurry to conclude. At least one more confirmation is needed that + 266K is not a coincidence, but a pattern. So on Monday, we will rely on local profit-taking in the dollar after Friday's growth, and therefore we will look for points for its sales. Note that on Friday our recommendation for news trading in the USDCAD worked out perfectly: excellent US data overlapped with bad figures on the Canadian labour market, as a result, the USDCAD soared by 100 points. Perhaps the most important event in terms of the consequences of the past week was OPEC’s decision to further reduce oil production from 1.2 million to 1.7 million from January 1, 2020. So, we can talk about the OPEC + agreement №3 (recall, the first one, provided for a reduction of 1.8 million barrels, the second one 1.2 million barrels per day). At the same time, Saudi Arabia made an unexpected statement of readiness on its part to further reduce production by another 400 thousand b / d. That is, the total reduction may reach 2.1 million barrels. This is the highest reduction since the cartel's attempts to stabilize the situation in the oil market. Despite the rather modest oil growth on Friday, such an outcome of the OPEC meeting is a very strong bullish signal. So this week, we will look for points for oil purchases. It would seem that after such a busy week the markets need a break, but you should not count on it. This week promises to be even more volatile. Key events are the announcement of the Fed decision on monetary policy parameters in the US, the ECB in the Eurozone, as well as elections in the UK. And although both events seem relatively predictable, there is enough time for surprises. How to make money on each of this news we will write a bit later. As for our positions, we do not see any reason to change our basic strategy (except oil). Therefore, we will continue to buy safe-haven assets (gold is simply perfectly substituted), sell the dollar, and this week we will actively build up a long position on the pound - the victory of conservatives in the UK parliamentary elections will have to hit the pound higher. we will buy oil.
Long
by Trade24Fx
1
ridethepig | Buying Dips In Euro...A very good time to update the Euro chart after the infamous "Worm in the apple". For those who have not played before I highly recommend seeing the textbook examples from the playbook here: EUR holding well and failing to give anything back to bears after our flawless swing earlier in the week (but also not taking the widely mentioned key 1.11xx resistance). While its both unsurprising and clear that risk markets are less sanguine, perhaps what is surprising is the resilience the Euro has shown. For those macro players this is screaming loudly !!!! that FX positioning is changing into yearend and the flight to quality into USD is losing its importance . The technical jurisdictions are clearly mapped with 1.109x acting as resistance, if US data undershoots again today a break of the highs is in play. Those looking to add bullish exposure should track the 1.103x support. Remember we can comfortably lean on the long-term swing: I am expecting EUR to find a strong bid next year as we see a new chapter in growth differentials. This will act as a catalyst in the reversal of capitals flows from the euro area to the US and serve as support in EURUSD . The risk to the thesis comes from European growth flopping next year, investors will therefore expect lower returns from the euro area and therefore European assets would sell off, weighing heavy on the currency. Short-term threatening to enter into wide consolidation till year-end, price action eminent of strong support at current levels. I sense that a clean break of 1.11 is now being watched as the catalyst for fresh demand and am comfortable buying anything inside the 1.09xx handle, as opposed to chasing the breakout. Watching EURJPY through 120.70 for clues. Good luck to all those trading the buy side and today's data. Thanks for keeping the support coming with likes and comments!
Long
by ridethepig
5
Worm In The USD Apple!! An live example of position execution in EURUSD...Vol has been trading at all time lows with EUR in a 10 tick weekly range. I am looking to fade the extremes. For the execution here we have infamous Worm In The Apple alerts triggering... I am going to give some room for bears to run the stops to the downside again. In usual circumstances it will be a good opportunity for bears to load, however smart money who understand the macro flows in play will ping the lows into year-end. This is for expert traders only, for those new and first timers who haven't played "Worm In The Apple" you can see a live examples of the exact same flows in GBPJPY here: For the macro flows we can comfortably lean on the next wave in EURUSD: Lastly the Long-term chart from 2018: Those tracking the buy side can use this chart to know in advance that 1.0975 will be bid, a lot of demand interest from private clients I work with month and year end positioning in play. Genuinely most of the time the stops will only hold on a solid price driver, the move down I expect to be soft and flimsy allowing transition of ownership. Best of luck all those looking to bid the lows, please keep the support coming with a like and comment your ideas, suggestions and questions.
Long
by ridethepig
3
Euro Funded Carry Trades!This time I have an update to the macro chart to show the impact of increased borrowing on the Euro as European banks continue to led abroad. The flows are very complex in nature but very easy to track, we have two major forces in play which will serve the main course for the theme in 2020. I am expecting EUR to find a strong bid next year as we see a new chapter in growth differentials . This will act as a catalyst in the reversal of capitals flows from the euro area to the US and serve as support in EURUSD. The risk to the thesis comes from European growth flopping next year, investors will therefore expect lower returns from the euro area and therefore European assets would sell off, weighing heavy on the currency. Short-term threatening to enter into wide consolidation till year-end, price action eminent of strong support at current levels. I sense that a clean break of 1.11 is now being watched as the catalyst for fresh demand and am comfortable buying anything inside the 1.09xx handle, as opposed to chasing the breakout. Watching EURJPY through 120.70 for clues. For the chart deck today we have: (i) A quick review of the wave count we have been tracking in this leg: (ii) While we can continue to comfortably lean on the long-term macro chart posted from 2018: Risk assets continue painting a positive story with Equities marching higher, cyclicals outperforming defensives and small caps outperforming large caps. However, rates and commodities clearly were not copied into the email with global yields and industrials stuck in first gear. Recommend all to bookmark this as an early warning sign of what is coming in 2020. Perhaps the most interesting highlight of all comes from EM FX which continues to underperform vs yields and equities. Those following the previous conversations from 2018 will remember we traded this theme before; the same mainstream media in 2018 are selling the 2020 story as domestic EM related problems - well we know from experience in 2018 that these issues soon turned out to be a global pandemic. Thanks all for keeping the likes and comments coming.
Long
by ridethepig
EURAUD Reversal PatternThis idea is similar to my GBPAUD idea which is still valid. Awaiting the break and close is our trigger. EURAUD hit a resistance zone at 1.6320. We have been in an uptrend, but one factor which goes against this idea would be the swings, or higher lows, are not very prominent. However, there are 2 swings in the trend which is good for our trading. We can see the bounce to make another higher low has been sold. It appears we will be making our FIRST lower high with the break of the 1.6210 zone. This is the zone I am watching for a break. 1.6120 is a previous flip zone and 1.6095 is a demand zone both of which we can target.
Short
by Uncharted-FX
2
ridethepig | EURSEK 2020 Macro MapTime for another forward walk in 2020, this time the focus is EURSEK. I am tracking for a year of "two halves" with the first providing support for SEK and a lot of demand for the most undervalued G10 cross. On the SEK side lets start with the Long-term chart: On the EUR side lets start with the Long-term chart: For the Swedish Macro details, Sweden is badly exposed to extreme levels of domestic credit with the SEK depreciation. Houses in Sweden have also not been attractive for a while and are finally showing signs of a bounce. The Riksbank is widely expected to hike in Dec, if the housing market plays ball then we can have more hikes from Riksbank next year. We have traded EURSEK a few times previously here: Risks to the thesis come from the Swedish housing market, if this breaks down we are going to see expectations shift in EURSEK. I will be releasing my 2020 FX outlook reports along with other strategy research in the coming weeks. 2020 is setting up for fireworks on the FX board with expectations and valuations starting to diverge and with late cycle concerns creeping back in through the back door to put the cherry on top. For those interested can send a PM on here or Tradingview.
Short
by ridethepig
2
How to make money on a pound and what to do with oilThe situation in Hong Kong continues to escalate. Trump promises to sign a scandalous law to support demonstrators, which is extremely describing China. And although the US and China declare progress in the negotiations, in such conditions, it can break at any moment. So we continue to look for points for purchases of gold and the Japanese yen. As for the other news - the impeachment process continues in the USA, the UK is preparing for the elections and Saudi Arabia for the IPO Saudi Aramco. In light of the upcoming elections and the uncertainty with its outcome, we can’t count on the growth or decline of the pound in the next couple of weeks. But on the other hand, understanding this opens the doors for aggressive intraday trading without explicit preferences. So, we are armed with hourly oscillators and actively trade GBPUSD. Oil has grown quite well over the past couple of days amid information about rising oil reserves in the US, as well as increased tensions in the Middle East. These events are not one of those that can significantly change the balance of power in the market. So Friday looks like a great day for oil sales. First of all, we are waiting for business activity indices to be published in the Eurozone, the UK and the USA. Also, pay attention to retail sales in Canada, as well as the speech of the new head of the ECB Lagarde. Given that markets are now very sensitive to macroeconomic statistics, even relatively minor data can trigger a surge in volatility. Well, from the new head of the ECB, her vision of monetary policy in the Eurozone has long been expected.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Trade24Fx