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ORBEX: GBPJPY, EURGBP - BoJo Wants Election, Adios Draghi!In today's #marketinsights video recording I analyse #GBPJPY and #EURGBP #FXMinors! GBPJPY Supported by: - Increasing expectations EC will grant January extension - BoJo win in case of early election - Weak safe-haven flows - Japan manufacturing to 3yr low EURGBP Under Pressure as: - Investors eye ECB and last Draghi meeting - Disappointing Business Climate (French) - Poor EA Consumer Confidence Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
by Orbex
UK Verdict, our recommendations and plansA new version of the Brexit deal has been agreed between the EU and the UK. The pound added about 500 points by the end of the week, bringing the account of its achievements to almost 1000 points. Recall that the UK and the EU, as we predicted, were able to agree on the terms of the deal at the last moment. As a result, at the EU summit on Thursday, this deal was approved by Europe. Another problem appeared - Johnson does not have a majority in Parliament. Accordingly, he had pretty high chances to repeat the fate of his predecessor, Theresa May, who also agreed on the deal, but could not pass it through Parliament. On Saturday, a vote took place, following which the British Parliament ordered Johnson to ask for a 3-month postpone so that parliamentarians could bring its legislation into line with the new realities. Johnson, who says more than once that there will be no postpone. Thus, he was put in a rather uncomfortable position. In general, there is a feeling that such a vote is rather an attempt to publicly humiliate Johnson, rather than a really necessary thing to do. Nevertheless, Johnson sent an unsigned letter to the European Union on Saturday requesting a Brexit delay. At the same time, he sent a couple of letters to the EU (which he did not forget to sign), in one of them he says that he is against the postponement. This week we will continue to look for points for its purchases because the Brexit issue has not been solved yet. Therefore there is still potential for the pound to grow. It is worth noting the weak statistics for the United States and China, which only confirmed what has been clear for a long time: trade war cause real harm to everyone. No breakthroughs were observed regarding the end of them. In this regard, we recommended focusing on finding entry points for the purchase of safe-haven assets. Given the state of financial markets at the beginning of the week, we see no reason to revise our recommendations and this week we will continue to look for points for buying gold and the Japanese yen. As for the euro. Technically you need to buy EURUSD, we recommend doing it with an eye on Thursday. The ECB will announce its decision on the parameters of monetary policy in the Eurozone on Thursday. Most likely, there will be no changes, but given the general weakness of the Eurozone economy, we will not be surprised at the “dovish” comments from the Central Bank or even the expansion of measures to soften the monetary policy, which may well provoke euro sales. The oil market was relatively calm last week. And although the Middle East continues to resemble a powder keg (Turkish military operation in Syria, an attack on an Iranian tanker, etc.), so far the markets are trying to ignore it. Last week, reserves increased by almost 10 million barrels - the maximum value since April 2019. Saudi Aramco has postponed the launch of its long-awaited initial public offering on Sunday. And although there is no direct connection between this event and the state of the oil market, in general, this is a rather bearish signal. As for our position, it is generally unchanged, while oil (WTI brand) is higher than 51.20, we tend to buy oil.
Long
by Trade24Fx
Buyers pushing EUR/USD to 1.12?Hi traders, EUR/USD has finally managed to break above its recent high and reach 1.1080, signaling that buyers are still active in the market. The recent consolidation phase could now provide new momentum for the pair to reach our profit target of 1.12, as projected by the triggered bullish wedge pattern (and projected from the breakout point.) The 1.11 level provides some short-term resistance for the pair. We're already long in the pair in the CommaFX Trading Club, but you might also enter with a pullback to the 1.1060 level.
Long
by MujkanovicFX
EUR/USD GIVES GREEN LIGHT TO BUYHi traders, hope you had a productive week with the developments around Brexit these days. This post, however, is about EUR/USD. The pair faced buying pressure after reaching a shorter-term support level / completing a pullback to the 1.10 level. As you know, I've been bullish on the pair these days, and the price hasn't managed to close below the 1.10 mark (check my previous posts for this.) Positive news around Brexit is also positive for the euro. Don't forget that, from a technical standpoint, the break above the wedge pattern projects a profit target around the 1.12 level. Please hit the "LIKE" button if you find any value in this analysis. Thanks!
Long
by MujkanovicFX
2
EUR/USD TAKES A BREATH, BUT MORE STRENGTH STILL LOOMINGHi traders, here's an update on EUR/USD which broke above a bullish wedge pattern last week. As you know, we've been bullish on the pair and entered with a long position in our Trading Club. Today, the up-move is having a break and the daily candle prints a doji pattern. Still, when looking on the 4-hour chart, we can see a pullback/retest of the previously broken shorter-term resistance (which is now acting as support.) The RSI managed to break above recent highs, which may signal a slight hidden bearish divergence. Still, we're not bearish at least until the price slips below 1.10 again. Bear in mind that the chances of the Fed cutting rates are rising after the recent string of weak US data. Find our analysis useful? Please support us by hitting the "LIKE" button. Thanks!
Long
by MujkanovicFX
EURUSD: Week 41 OutlookThe EUR/USD outlook remains fairly untouched, as we are still within the Falling Wedge Pattern (a bullish system.) The Euro closed up +0.35% against the US Dollar Friday, creating a bullish Low Test Candle, another indication of upward movement. With BREXIT and U.S.-Chinese negotiations going on we will see what catalyst will drive the price of the Euro higher. With a slight revision, we see 1.075 as the first headwind that the price may face before moving higher. If we look at the visible volume range in chart we can potentially see where the orders sit to react to price. We believe that the BREXIT situation will have the largest effect on the Euro and a frustrated China will affect the US Dollar in the coming days and weeks. THE PLAY : We stand neutral on the EUR/USD until we 1.10 and close, proving that we are moving higher.
by KingdomRichOffical
1
Another busy week for investors Late last week, investor sentiment has improved somehow due to generally positive US jobs data which curbed concerns over a potential recession in the world’s largest economy after dismal manufacturing and services PMIs. This week is going to be busy as well, with a new round of US-China trade talks will be in focus. The reports that Chinese officials have narrowed the scope of issues they will discuss at the upcoming trade talks makes investors worried about a chance for a broad agreement between the two countries. As such, market participants will likely be cautious in the days to come, and some negative reaction from Trump may follow. Apart from trade talks, investors will pay attention to the ECB and FOMC meeting minutes this week. The Federal Reserve will shed the light on its decision to cut rates in September and probably will indicate how the October meeting may play out. Should the central bank hint at another rate cut this month, the greenback will get a hit across the board. However, the general market sentiment will still depend on the trade talks, with lack of progress will hurt risky assets.
FWB:FOMC
by HelenRush
4 REASONS WHY EUR/USD COULD DIVE AGAIN1. Our EUR/USD trade has reached its take-profit level last week as expected and is now facing selling pressure at the upper wedge resistance. 2. That price-level aligns with the 61.8% Fib level and a horizontal resistance zone, signaling a potential continuation of the underlying downtrend. 3. Notice that the RSI has already reached its recent high, showing that the recent up-move in EUR/USD is losing momentum. 4. The pair is also forming an indecisive daily candlestick as buyers are losing steam and sellers are joining the market.
Short
by MujkanovicFX
No matter how tempting it is to Long EU....but there isn't strong enough rationale for my liking, to start shifting my entire bias even to a cautious bullish (meaning taking Long signals but with an extremely small position). The federal reserve did cut their interest rates but I still believe there is still a divergent monetary policy between ECB and Federal Reserve. ECB is in QE, Fed Reserve is not. ECB interest rate is lower than the Fed Reserve. Technically, though there is indeed a sign that price probably could start going up, but I have seen this kind of move before only the support levels to be broken. I am at least shifting my bias from strong bearish EURUSD into weak bearish EURUSD (meaning I will take short trades with half of my usual risk per trade). I will look for bull traps/liquidity pool tapping at the levels I have marked on the chart. There is no risk event for the U.S and Eurozone for Monday
by sufiansaid
GAP needs to be filled - 1.0780 - EUR BEARISH Long TermHello traders, There is currently a gap in the market which is yet to be filled at 1.0780. Any short term spike in the market is an opportunity to sell lower. Germany is in a recession and the EU as a group is not far behind. The ECB has also cut interest rates into the negative territory, therefore the EUR is bearish long term. The DXY is due a pull back lower, therefore we could see some upside on the EURUSD before it breaks lower. Major resistance at 1.1350 - Great entry for short position Long term we could see the EURUSD down at 1.0600 Please let us know your thoughts on the set up www.forexstoreau.com
by ForexStoreau
ORBEX: EURUSD, USDJPY - The Risks Of A US-EU TradewarIn today's #marketinsights video recording I analyse #EURUSD and #USDJPY #EURUSD weak on: - US-EU potential trade conflict (airbus illegal state aid - WTO depended) - ECB's Germans board member resignation Medium-term #Euro led flows will hang on Lagarde's policy. A potential transition to fiscal tools will be euro positive #USDJPY strong on: - Dovish Evans turned neutral - Positive home sales - No GDP revision - No safe-haven flows - Dollar seen as risk positive Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
by Orbex
Navigating the Market : EURCAD 27/9I am intraday bearish bias for EURCAD. I have fundamental rationale to be bearish on the Euros but I don't for Canadian as of now. The daily range yesterday was 61 pips whilst the 20-day ADR was 63 pips. I consider that as a hit. However, there is still more "space" to fill for this pair hence I am targeting the 20-week AWR downside projection. I look for a tiny correction to the upside before considering to short EURCAD There are no risk events for Euro and Canada
Short
by sufiansaid
EUR/NZD SELLERS GAINING STRENGTH!Hi traders, you may have noticed our EUR/NZD idea from a few days ago. I am glad to say that we took the trade which is now in significant profit. The triple bottom / fake breakout pattern showed to hold, pushing the price lower almost 200 pips. The apparent economic slowdown in the Eurozone didn't help either to stop the fall. Notice the triple bearish divergence in the RSI, which confirmed our bearish bias and highlighted the reversal potential of the fake breakout.
Short
by MujkanovicFX
Germany in recession - ISM manufacturing below 45 - SELL EURHello Traders, Manufacturing PMI is a leading indicator of when an economy enters a contraction phase, recession and expansion phase. A result below 50 signals a contraction, a result below 45 signals a recession. Germany has now entered a recession as they reported another weak market manufacturing PMI result of 41.4. The EUR also reported a market manufacturing PMI result of 45.6, on recession territory. The EURO zone is in some trouble. We are now short on the EURJPY, short term target being 117.60, we could even see a retest of the major lows at 115.94. If the market pushes higher we will look to sell from a higher resistance level. Any comments or questions let us know. www.forexstoreau.com
Short
by ForexStoreau
EUR/USD bulls losing steam around the 1.1050 levelThe EUR/USD pair is printing its second indecisive candle around the 1.1050 level, with quite long upper wicks. The pair is trading at a strong daily bearish trendline resistance, a horizontal resistance zone and the 61.8% Fib level, which could signal an end for the current counter-trend price correction and a continuation of the underlying downtrend. While the Fed remained unclear on future rate cuts, we believe that the US economy is in a way better position then the Eurozone, according to recent macro-fundamental releases. Would you sell EUR/USD around current levels? Let me know in the comment section.
Short
by MujkanovicFX
Navigating the Market : EURUSD 21st Sept 2019In terms of sentiment & fundamental analysis, last week and this coming week I have established a bias**. The bias is that I am moderately bearish on EURUSD (weak bearish) ECB is in quantitative easing mode whilst the Fed had done a hawkish interest rate cut. **There will be a week when I do not have a fundamental/sentiment bias due to my limited knowledge on the matter but when I do, I put this bias on top of anything else, above Technical Analysis. Having said that though, I rely heavily on Technical Analysis to tell me where and when to trade. In terms of Technical Analysis, the EURUSD is still in bearish mode (tho weakening). I look at the Daily Chart, even though our eyes would scream "EURUSD has gone bearish too long now". That is classical retail trader way of thinking. Picking tops and bottoms, claiming Euro is too cheap etc. I disagree with this completely. I am NOT saying the price would continue moving another 200-300 pips downwards (even though that is what I am anticipating because I am, after all, bearish bias EURUSD) but the average leg/wave for EURUSD (Daily Chart) before it retraces more than 38% of the impulsive wave, is 589 pips. Current wave/leg barely touches the average. So, anyway.. quick hindsight-reading-the-left-side-of-the-chart analysis to make me sound stupidly smart: the EURUSD had been trading in the range since 5th September. It is true on the 12th and the 13th this pair broke above the trading range but that was due to the institutional liquidity run (conveniently coincided with the ECB Rate Decision). The pair traded back inside within the range until NY closes on Friday. Now, time to read the right side of the chart instead. The nearest liquidity that I have identified is in between 1.10250 and 1.10400. Small retracement usually has stacks of orders that institutions love to consume. If price enters this zone I will be on Bearish standby mode waiting for a short signal. If the level I explained above would be broken through then I will be looking at the next level which is between 1.10750-1.0900. It would break the Friday High and that usually activates my bearish mode. Risk Events on Monday for the EU are the Flash Services PMI, German Flash Manufacturing PMI and German Flash Services PMI. Nothing for the U.S
Short
by sufiansaid
Dax - Continued Upward Momentum Post ECBWe still see the Dax moving higher after the ECB despite not all the governors agreeing that moving forward with more QE is the solution to the Eurozone's economic struggles. This is due to reduced tensions in the US/China trade war and the dovishness of global central banks with even the FED on Wednesday indicating it will re-introduce QE. Therefore we maintain our long view and see the Dax reaching 13000 in the coming months with a near term target at the recent beginning of July high of 12655.
XETR:DAXLong
by KQMarkets
Preparing for Fed verdict, analyzing the state of the oil marketThe attacks on Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure led to the biggest jump in global prices. The correction was not observed until the American session started. We recommended on Tuesday to open short positions in oil because we were confident in the corrective movement and the end, the recommendation justified itself at 100%. In just 10 minutes, oil lost over 4%. The reason for the decline was the information that Saudi Arabia has officially confirmed - production capacity will be restored by the end of September. And to compensate for losses in production associated with the attack, the Saudis will increase production up to 12 million bpd by the end of October. So those of our readers who trust our experience and analytics should have made good money. As for trading on the oil market today, then after the strongest fall yesterday, everything looks rather ambiguous. And although we continue to incline toward asset sales you should be careful with that. As for the Fed and the Open Market Committee. An event that was devoid of intrigue just a couple of weeks ago (100% of traders set a minimum rate reduction of 0.25) may surprise. The current probability of a Fed rate cut is slightly above 60%. And if you take into account that yesterday's data on industrial production in the USA were frankly surprising: 0.6% m / m with a forecast of + 0.2% m / m and July outcome -0.1% m / m, the Fed can keep the rate unchanged. Our position remains unchanged. We expect the rate to be lowered by 0.25%. There are enough reasons for this: an interest rate reduction by ECB rate last week, a deterioration of the US labor market and the US economy condition as a whole, threat of a global recession and intensified trade war, multiplied by the risk of a US military campaign in Iran - all of this obliges the Fed to act and reduce the interest rate to prevent the US economy downfall. Anyway, reinsurance is better than solve the consequences duo to the lack of action. Accordingly, our position on the dollar today is also unchanged - we will sell it. At the same time, we do not forget the euro and its movement after the ECB meeting last week. The probability of false movements is great and it is extremely important to follow a predetermined plan. But at the same time, it is worthwhile to put stops so as not to go against the market will. In addition to the decision of the Fed and the subsequent explosion of volatility in the foreign exchange market, it is worth paying attention to inflation data from the UK and Canada. As for the UK. Despite Johnson's unsuccessful meeting in Luxembourg, the pound did not react that much. This means that we will continue to look for an opportunity to buy the British pound. First of all, against the euro and the US dollar. The tactics of buying gold in the area of local lows continue to be justified, so we will continue to adhere to it today.
TVC:DXYShort
by Trade24Fx
ORBEX GBPUSD, EURUSD, AUDUSD Under Pressure! But For How Long?In today's #marketinsights video recording I analyse #fxmajors #audusd, #gbpusd and #eurusd. They are all under pressure for different reasons: EURUSD - ECB's Lane dovish on ECB's inflation target - Italian CPI weakening GBPUSD - BoJo goes to Brussels empty-handed - Brussels not sure if extension will help AUDUSD - RBA reveals plans to cut more if necessary - Bank could cut twice more in 2019 to support inflation and employment goals Meanwhile, everyone stresses out about #FOMC! Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
by Orbex
EURUSD - Still Short Post ECBEURUSD rose last Thursday following the ECB meeting as the governors were not in agreement that moving forward with more QE is the solution to the Eurozone's economic struggles. However, the currency pair failed to break the key resistance level at 1.112 and has since been dropping helped by stronger than expected US retail sales which came through at 0.4% vs 0.2% forecast. Additionally, USD Michigan consumer sentiment came through at 92 vs 90.8 forecast and we see further downside pressure on EURUSD despite an expected 25bps rate cut at the FED meeting on Wednesday.
Short
by KQMarkets