Get started

Ecb

EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of June 14, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: The Eurodollar has achieved two of our downward trend targets in the current week's trading: Mean Support at 1.075 and 1.067, respectively. The remaining downside targets continue to be valid. The ultimate target for the completed Inner Currency Dip is 1.060 and 1.054; out of most, the completed Outer Currency Dip is 1.045. On the upside, the dead-cat rebound is set to target Mean Resistance at 1.073.
by TradeSelecter
Euro falls to six-week highThe euro has extended its losses on Friday. EUR/USD is trading at 1.0675 in the European session, down 0.59% on the day. The euro is down 1.17% this week and has dropped to its lowest level since May 1st. France’s inflation level fell to zero in May, confirming the preliminary estimate and down from the 0.5% gain in April. France is the eurozone’s second-largest economy and the downtrend in inflation will be welcome news to the European Central Bank. The central bank delivered a rate cut last week, the first since its rate-tightening cycle began two years ago. ECB policymakers will be closely monitoring inflation data and could consider another cut in the fall if inflation continues to decline towards the 2% target. Eurozone inflation rose 2.4% in April, unchanged from March. ECB President Lagarde speaks at an event in Croatia later on Friday and investors will be looking for hints as to the ECB’s planned rate path. Another cut in July is unlikely but a signal from Lagarde that additional rate cuts are one the table could boost the euro. In the US, the producer price index rose 0.2%, below the April reading of 0.5% and lower than the market estimate of 0.1%. Yearly, PPI ticked lower to 2.2%, down from a revised 2.3% in March and below the market estimate of 2.5%. The soft PPI data follows the May CPI report which also showed that inflation on the decline. The downtrend in these two inflation reports have raised expectations of a September rate cut, with a 61% of a quarter-point cut currently, compared to 46% just a week ago, according to CME’s FedWatch. EUR/USD pushed below support at 1.0709 and is testing support at 1.0679. Below, there is support at 1.0629 1.0763 and 1.0793 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
A Bullish Outlook for BTCUSDIn the ever-evolving world of cryptocurrency trading, recent developments in global monetary policy have sparked renewed interest in the BTCUSD market. With the European Central Bank's (ECB) recent decision to trim interest rates and today's release of better-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, coupled with ongoing speculation of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed), traders are eyeing long positions in Bitcoin (BTC) with a bullish outlook. Adding to the narrative, recent market dynamics reveal a pattern of range-bound trading in the BTCUSD market, with the $72,000 level serving as a key resistance level. As we anticipate a repetition of this pattern, informed traders are positioning themselves strategically to capitalize on potential price movements. Here's how traders are navigating these market conditions: Capitalizing on Central Bank Policies: The ECB's decision to lower interest rates underscores the prevailing sentiment of accommodative monetary policies aimed at stimulating economic growth. In response, traders are flocking to Bitcoin as a hedge against potential currency devaluation and inflationary pressures, driving demand and upward price momentum. Interpreting CPI Data and Market Expectations: Today's release of CPI data, slightly below expectations but still indicative of moderate inflationary pressures, has provided clarity on economic conditions. With the Fed expected to follow the ECB's lead and implement rate cuts, traders are anticipating a favorable environment for Bitcoin investments, as lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding cryptocurrencies. Technical Analysis and Strategic Positioning: Building on recent market trends, traders are employing technical analysis to identify key support and resistance levels. With the $72,000 level emerging as a significant resistance barrier, traders are setting profit-taking targets (TP) at this level, anticipating a potential retracement or consolidation. For risk management purposes, a stop-loss (SL) level at $67,000 is being widely utilized to mitigate downside risk. Market Sentiment and Long-Term Outlook: Despite short-term volatility, sentiment remains overwhelmingly bullish among long-term investors, driven by Bitcoin's growing adoption as a store of value and inflation hedge. Institutional interest, coupled with increasing retail participation, further validates Bitcoin's status as a viable investment asset, with the potential for substantial long-term gains. In conclusion, the convergence of central bank policies, economic data releases, and technical market analysis paints a compelling picture for traders seeking opportunities in the BTCUSD market. By leveraging strategic insights and risk management techniques, traders can position themselves to capitalize on potential price movements while navigating market volatility effectively. As always, traders are encouraged to conduct thorough research, stay informed of market developments, and adhere to disciplined trading strategies to achieve their financial objectives in the dynamic world of cryptocurrency trading.
BINANCE:BTCUSD.PLong
by exlux
ECB speeches, Macron, and FOMC stir EUR/USD A high number of European Central Bank (ECB) officials are making public speeches in the 24 before the Fed rate decision this week Wednesday that could help or hinder the EUR/USD. Also, thrown in the mix now is French President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to call for a snap local election after the results of the EU Parliament elections, adding to market uncertainty. The EURUSD has extended to a 5-week low. 1.0700 could be the next target for the bears as the price has now moved into a swing area between 1.0718 and 1.0750. Perhaps the most important speeches will come from Luis de Guindos (Vice-President of the ECB), Philip R. Lane (ECB Executive Board member), and Claudia Buch (ECB Supervisory Board). Import the BlackBull Markets Economic Calendar to iCloud, Google, or Outlook to get alerts direct to your inbox, enabling you to plan your positions in advance. Last week, the EU became the fourth Western economy to reduce its lending rate, announcing progress in tackling inflation. It lowered its main interest rate from a record high of 4% to 3.75%. Katherine Neiss, chief European economist at Prudential Investment Management, expressed "reasonable confidence" that the ECB would further cut rates over the summer or autumn, potentially bringing EU rates to 3.5% or lower by year-end. Investors will be closely analyzing the upcoming ECB speeches for any hints that support this prediction.
by BlackBull_Markets
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of June 7, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: In this week's trading, the Eurodollar has completed our Inner Currency Rally of 1.091 and reverted sharply to our designated target of the Mean Sup 1.080. The currency is expected to continue its downward trajectory to Mean Sup 1.075 with a follow-up Dead-Cat rebound to the reverted resistance level of 1.080 (Previous Mean Sup). The ultimate target of the well-established completed Innet Currency Dip 1.060.
by TradeSelecter
ECB Rate Cut Sparks Uncertainty: Bitcoin as a Safe Haven The European Central Bank (ECB) has decided to cut interest rates by 0.25% unanimously, reflecting growing concerns about the economic health of the Eurozone. With inflation expected to slow to 1.9% by 2026 and GDP growth projected at 0.9% in 2024 and 1.6% in 2026, the ECB aims to stimulate borrowing and investment to drive economic growth. However, many investors express doubt and uncertainty about these future projections and feel a high degree of uncertainty in the markets. Doubts about the ECB's ability to achieve these goals persist amid ongoing economic challenges and increasing global pressures. This doubt and uncertainty drive the search for more stable investment alternatives, making digital currencies, especially Bitcoin, an attractive option for investors seeking to hedge against economic and political volatility. The ECB's interest rate cut could lead to a weaker Euro, making dollar-denominated assets like Bitcoin more attractive to investors. When interest rates drop, borrowing becomes cheaper, encouraging individuals and businesses to borrow and invest. This increases market liquidity, which can boost demand for digital assets like Bitcoin. A weaker Euro means investors look for safe and stable alternatives to protect their money from inflation and currency depreciation. Bitcoin, which has a reputation as a safe haven and a high-performing investment despite the risks, may become a preferred choice for these investors. Therefore, this move could lead to higher Bitcoin prices as investors seek to capitalize on changing financial conditions and invest in assets that are considered safer and more valuable in the long term. Diversification is key to managing risk in your investment portfolio. Do not put all your investments in Bitcoin alone; diversify your portfolio across various digital and traditional assets. Diversification can help reduce overall risk and improve potential returns by leveraging the performance of different assets at different times. Only invest what you can afford to lose due to the high volatility in the cryptocurrency market. Investing in Bitcoin or any other digital currency should be part of a comprehensive financial plan that considers the ability to bear risks and potential loss of value. With these tips, investors can take advantage of opportunities in the digital currency market while minimizing risks and achieving their financial goals in the long term.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by bbitar
ECB Rate Cut Looms: EUR/USD Set to Slide?Given the increasing likelihood that the ECB will cut rates before the Fed, further EUR/USD depreciation could be anticipated in the coming days/ weeks. A move below the 100-day moving average would have traders looking toward the 200-day moving average of 1.0853. However, weaker jobs data from the US this week is tempering this expectation, which means some upside targets can be charted still. If bulls maintain control, EUR/USD may test the June high of 1.0916, followed by the three peaks of March, before reaching the crucial 1.1000 level. The JOLTs job openings report showed a decline of 296,000 from the previous month, dropping to 8.059 million in April 2024. This is the lowest level since February 2021 and below the market consensus of 8.34 million. The ADP Employment Change report revealed that private US hiring in May increased by 152,000, falling short of the estimates of 175,000 and below April’s figure of 188,000. Next up is the NonFarm Payrolls report on Friday. For the exact date and time, import the BlackBull Markets Economic Calendar to iCloud, Google, or Outlook to get alerts directly to your inbox, enabling you to plan your positions in advance.
by BlackBull_Markets
EUR/USD shrugs as Eurozone CPI higher than expectedThe euro has edged higher after eurozone CPI was hotter than anticipated. EUR/USD is trading at 1.0848 in the European session, up 0.27% on the day. The inflation rate in the eurozone surprised the markets with a hotter-than-expected release for May. The headline figure rose to 2.6% y/y, up from 2.4% in each of the past two months and higher than the market estimate of 2.5%. Energy and services prices accelerated while food inflation slowed slightly. Core CPI climbed to 2.9% in May, up from 2.7% in April and above the market estimate of 2.8%. Will the hot inflation report put a dent in the European Central Bank’s plan to lower interest rates next week? Probably not, as the ECB has strongly signaled it will cut rates and a change of heart now would not be viewed kindly by the markets. The May inflation report was higher than expected but the gain was partially attributable to one-off factors, such as a change in German public transit costs. Still, May inflation was higher in Germany, France and Spain, an indication that the path to the ECB’s 2% target will be bumpy. The ECB has slashed inflation from a high of 10.6% in 2022 to below 3% and a rate cut will provide relief to consumers and also provide a boost to the sluggish eurozone economy. In the US, the week wraps up with the Personal Consumption Expenditure price index, which is the Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation indicator. The indicator is expected to remain unchanged at 2.7% y/y and 0.3% m/m, respectively. An unexpected reading could trigger some movement from EUR/USD in the North American session. EUR/USD is putting pressure on resistance at 1.0855. Above, there is resistance at 1.0879 1.0822 and 1.0798 are the next support levels
by OANDA
Key factors for EUR/GBP trade next week Key factors for EUR/GBP trade next week With a European Central Bank (ECB) decision due next week, a trade in the GBP/EUR could be of interest. Presently, the EUR/GBP is trading at the lowest rate since August of 2022. The divergence in monetary policy between the ECB and the Bank of England (BOE) is what could be driving this weakness in the EUR. E ECB President Christine Lagarde has recently expressed confidence that Eurozone inflation is under control, hinting at a possible interest rate cut next month. The same level of dovishness is not yet seen in the language of the BOE officials. Additionally, the GBP/EUR pair could be influenced by changes in the U.S. dollar. The pound typically exhibits greater sensitivity to shifts in risk sentiment compared to the euro. A softening U.S. dollar, potentially stemming from upcoming U.S. jobs data, might further strengthen the pound against the euro. Intraday bias for the GBP/EUR pair remains neutral, with potential for more consolidations. Across the week, we get the US JOLTs Job Openings, ADP Employment Change, and the all-important Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP). Last month’s NFP reported 175,000 jobs added in April 2024, down from 315,000 jobs added in March, and falling well short of expectations for 240,000. This month's forecast is for even fewer, at 150,000 jobs. Bear in mind, any surprising strength in U.S. job data or a more hawkish tone from the BOE could lead to different trading dynamics.
by BlackBull_Markets
EUR/USD climbs after US GDP, eurozone CPI nextThe euro has in positive territory on Thursday. EUR/USD is trading at 1.0840 in the North American session, up 0.37% on the day. The week wraps up with eurozone inflation on Friday. The market estimate for May stands at 2.5% y/y/, compared to 2.4% in April. The core inflation rate is expected to tick higher to 2.8% y/y, up from 2.7% in April. In Germany, the largest economy in the eurozone, inflation accelerated to 2.4% y/y in May, following a 2.2% gain in each of the past two months. This was the first time in five months that Germany’s inflation rate increased. On a monthly basis, inflation fell to 0.1%, a sharp drop from the 0.5% gain in April. The timing of the eurozone CPI release is significant, as it comes shortly before the European Central Bank rate meeting on June 6th. The ECB has strongly hinted that it will lower rates at the meeting and it would be a nasty surprise for the markets if the ECB changes its mind. With inflation under 3% and the eurozone grappling with sluggish economic activity, the conditions seems right for a rate cut. The ECB’s rate-tightening cycle has done a good job slashing inflation, and lower rates would provide some relief to households which are struggling with elevated rates and the high cost of living. In the US, second-estimate GDP was revised downwards to 1.3% y/y. This was below the 1.6% in the first estimate but higher than the market estimate of 1.2% and much weaker than the 3.4% gain in the fourth quarter of 2023. The drop in GDP was mainly attributable to weaker consumer spending, as consumers are yet to see any relief from the Fed’s high benchmark rate target of 5.25% to 5.50%. The Fed is concerned about stubbornly high inflation and FOMC members have been constantly pouring cold water on rate-cut expectations. The Fed has shown it can be patient and if the inflation picture doesn’t improve, it is conceivable that the Fed won’t lower rates before 2025. EUR/USD pushed past resistance at 1.0806 and is testing resistance at 1.0845 1.0765 and 1.0726 are the next support levels
by OANDA
DAX Tests Critical Support after Hotter German InflationConsumer price pressures in Germany accelerated in April to 2.4% y/y, which marked the first uptick since December. Eurozone inflation meanwhile persisted at the same level (May preliminary due on Friday), while wages in the region increased in the first quarter. This has created some worries around the disinflation process and the central bank’s prospects for less restrictive stance. GER30 extends its slide from the recent all-time peak into the third week as a result and now tests a crucial support area. It breaches the EMA200 (H4) threatening the 38.2% Fibonacci of its last leg up. This would pause the bullish momentum and create risk for deeper pullback towards the daily Ichimoku Cloud, but we are cautious around sustained weakness. Recent European inflation data may have showed some persistence and European officials may have warned against back-to-back rate cuts, but the ECB is expected to become the first major central bank to pivot and slash rates next week. This shift towards looser monetary setting, along with Germany’s exit for recession, are supportive for the stock market. Furthermore, the RSI is oversold and if GER30 manages to hold the pivotal EMA200 and 38.2% Fibo, its bullish bias would be reaffirmed and could lead to new record highs. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website: Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
FX:GER30
by FXCM
Euro edges lower as German inflation accelerates The euro is quiet on Wednesday. EUR/USD is trading at 1.0840 in the North American session, down 0.14% on the day. Germany’s inflation rate rose to 2.4% y/y in May, following a 2.2% gain in each of the past two months. The reading was in line with expectations, which explains the euro’s muted reaction. This is the first time in five months that German inflation has accelerated, with the increase driven by higher services and food prices. On a monthly basis, inflation rose just 0.1%, sharply lower than the 0.5% gain in April and below the market estimate of 0.2%. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy held steady at 3.0%. The higher-than-expected inflation report is an indication that inflationary pressures are alive and well in Europe’s largest economy. Eurozone CPI, which will be released on Friday, is expected to follow suit and tick higher to 2.5% y/y, compared to 2.4% in April. The European Central Bank will be carefully monitoring the eurozone CPI report, which comes less than a week before the ECB’s rate meeting. The central bank has signaled that it will lower rates at the June 6th meeting. Earlier this month, ECB President Christine Lagarde said last week that there was a “strong likelihood” of a rate cut in June and stated that she was confident that inflation was under control. On Monday, ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane said that the ECB was ready to cut rates next week “barring major surprises”. Interestingly, this would mean that the ECB will lower rates ahead of the Federal Reserve, which is not expected to cut before September at the earliest. The Fed is usually a leader on rate policy, but high inflation in the US has delayed plans to lower rates. This could have unfavorable ramifications for the ECB, as the euro would likely depreciate after an ECB cut, which would raise the risk of a rise in inflation. EUR/USD is testing support at 1.0845. Below, there is support at 1.0806 There is resistance at 1.0886 and 1.0925
by fisherkj4
EURUSD Goes for Profitable Month but Monetary Policy UnfavorableThe pair made a strong start to the final week of May, heading towards its first profitable month of the year. This gives it the chance to push for 1.0981, but we are cautious around further gains, as the monetary policy differential is unfavorable. As such, we can see renewed pressure towards the EMA200 (black line) and daily closes would reinstate the bearish bias, but there are multiple roadblock below it. Markets now brace for Friday’s US PCE and Eurozone’s preliminary CPI inflation updates that can shape rate expectations and determine the pair's next move. The European Central Bank looks ready to become the first major institution to pivot and cut rates at next week’s meeting and Monday’s commentary from at least two officials pointed to such action. The path beyond is far from guaranteed though, as policymakers have generally warned against back-to back moves. The US Fed on the other hand has adopted a higher-for-longer narrative, since the disinflation process has slowed this year, while the labor market is robust and the economy strong. There is volatility around the rate path expectations, but markets currently see only one cut as the most likely outcome and have pushed back its timing to November. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website: Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
Short
by FXCM
EUR/USD steady as German Business Climate unchangedThe euro is drifting on Monday. EUR/USD is down 0.05%, trading at 1.0849 in the North American session at the time of writing. US markets are closed for Memorial Day, which will likely mean a quiet day for the US dollar. In Europe, German Ifo Business Climate stagnated in May and was steady at 89.3. This unchanged from the downwardly revised 89.3 in April and short of the market estimate of 90.4. The German economy, the largest in the eurozone, has struggled although they have been signs of recovery. GDP grew by just 0.2% in the first quarter, after contracting in the fourth quarter of 2023. The ECB meets on June 6th and its credibility is on the line if it doesn’t deliver a rate cut which would be the first since March 2016. ECB President Christine Lagarde said last week that there was a “strong likelihood” of a rate cut in June and stated that she was confident that inflation was under control. This sounded like a strong endorsement of a rate cut next week. Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel also signaled that a rate cut was coming in June, dismissing concerns over wage growth, which rose from 4.5% to 4.7%. Nagel stressed that a June cut did not signal the start of a series of cuts, as ECB decisions will depend on incoming data. The eurozone releases the May inflation report on Friday, which isn’t expected to change expectations of a June rate cut. CPI fell to 2.4% y/y in April and is expected to tick higher to 2.5% in May. EUR/USD has weak support at 1.0845. Below, there is support at 1.0806 There is resistance at 1.0886 and 1.0925
by OANDA
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of May 24, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: The Eurodollar bounced off last week's established Mean Resistance level of 1.089 and reached our specified lower target of the Mean Support level of 1.082. The likelihood of revisiting the Mean Resistance level of 1.089 and reaching the Inner Currency Rally level of 1.091 is slim. On the downside, the currency is prone to hit the Mean Support level of 1.081 and target a well-established price level of 1.075.
by TradeSelecter
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of May 17, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: During this week's trading session, the Eurodollar made a spectacular surge on the upside to our Inner Currency Rally 1.084 and a lot more. Current market conditions suggest that the Eurodollar may continue upward momentum to complete our Inner Currency Rally 1.091 via the newly created Mean Res 1.089. On the downside, the currency is prone to go down to Mean Sup 1.082 and possibly Mean Sup 1.076.
by TradeSelecter
Euro edges lower despite positive inflation reportThe euro has posted slight losses on Friday. EUR/USD is down 0.28%, trading at 1.0837 in the North American session at the time of writing. The April inflation report showed that headline inflation remained steady at 2.4% y/y, holding at its lowest level in almost three years. Services inflation and energy prices declined, while food, alcohol and tobacco prices were slightly higher. Monthly, headline CPI eased to 0.6%, down from 0.8% in March and matching the market estimate. The most significant news was the decline in core CPI, which excludes energy and food, alcohol and tobacco and is a more accurate indicator of inflation trends. The core rate fell to 2.7% y/y, down from 2.9% in March and matching the market estimate. Core CPI has now decelerated nine straight times and has dropped to its lowest level since February 2022. The European Commission announced earlier in the week that eurozone inflation is expected to drop to 2.5% in 2024 and fall to the 2% target in the second half of 2025. The European Central Bank has done a good job slashing inflation, which was running at 7% a year ago. The ECB has signaled that it is ready to shift policy and lower rates at the June meeting. ECB President Lagarde has widely hinted at a June cut but has remained mum about what happens after that. Lagarde doesn’t want to raise expectations of a series of rate cuts and then disappoint the markets if the ECB doesn’t follow through. There are no key economic releases out of the US today, leaving FedSpeak as the highlight of the day. Three voting members of the FOMC, Christopher Waller, Mary Daly and Adriana Kugler will deliver speeches which could provide some insights into future US rate policy. FOMC members have sounded rather hawkish, saying that restrictive policy is working and there is no rush to lower rates. EUR/USD is testing support at 1.0850 and is putting pressure on support at 1.0832 There is resistance at 1.0872 and 1.0890
by OANDA
EURUSD Higher after US CPI but Policy Dynamics to WeighWednesday’s US CPI report showed a moderation in price pressures in April, following months of persistence, with headline inflation easing to 3.4% y/y and core to 3.6% y/y. Along with the miss in retail sales, markets strengthened their pricing for two rate cuts this year by the Fed, staring in September. The greenback fell as a result, sending EURUSD to the highest levels in nearly a month. this bring the March peak in the spotlight (1.0981), but we are cautious around the ascending prospects. US Inflation remains far from the 2% target, which along with strong economy and robust labor market have raised the bar for a Fed to pivot, leading policymakers to higher-for-longer narrative. Their European peers have made more progress on moderating price pressures and the economy struggles. As a result, the ECB looks more ready to lower rates, having hinted at a June pivot. The monetary policy differentially is likely to cap the upside and put pressure on EURUSD. Along with overbought RSI, there is scope for a retreat towards the EMA200 (black line). Daily closes below it would shift bias to the downside and make the common currency vulnerable to the 2024 lows (1.0600). Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website: Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
Short
by FXCM
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of May 10, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: During this week's trading session, the Eurodollar fluctuated around our significant Mean resistance level of 1.080. There are projections that the currency may experience an upward surge and complete the Inner Currency Rally of 1.084 before undergoing a downward transition to the Mean Support level mark of 1.074 and possibly further down to designated targets. However, it is also possible that the Eurodollar might go down to hit the Mean Support level of 1.074 from its current position.
by TradeSelecter
Pound shows little reaction as BoE holds ratesThe British pound is showing limited movement on Thursday. GBP/USD is up 0.15%, trading at 1.2515 in the North American session at the time of writing. The Bank of England kept the cash rate unchanged at 5.25% for a sixth straight time in a widely expected move. The British pound dropped slightly after the announcement but then recovered. The breakdown of the vote by the nine members of the MPC was noteworthy, as two members voted for a 0.25% cut, with seven voting to hold rates. At the April meeting, the vote was eight members in favor of a hold and one voting to cut rates by 0.25%. The meeting minutes made reference to the split vote and also noted a “range of views” among MPC members over inflation risks. Governor Bailey still has a solid majority but if additional MPC members veer away from Bailey’s stance, it will complicate his job and could affect his credibility. The markets were hoping that the BoE would use today’s meeting to signal a rate cut in June, much in the way that the European Central Bank essentially confirmed a June rate cut at its April meeting. Bailey said that “a change in the bank rate in June has neither been ruled out or a fait accompli”. Bailey also stated that the BOE could start to cut before the Federal Reserve, which has delayed plans to lower rates due to rising inflation in the US. The BoE would prefer to have the Fed move first, otherwise a BoE rate cut will hurt the British pound which could result in higher inflation. The Fed has put the brakes on plans to lower rates as inflation as proved stickier than expected. Fed members have said that monetary policy needs to remain restrictive and Boston Fed president Susan Collins said on Wednesday that inflation will take more time to fall than expected and added “there is no pre-set path for policy”. The Fed has been pouring cold water on rate cut expectations although the markets still expect two rate cuts before the end of the year. GBP/USD dropped below support at 1.2468 and put pressure on support at 1.2440 1.2497 and 1.2525 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of May 3, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: The Eurodollar experienced significant volatility during this week's trading session, with an upward movement that surpassed our Mean Resistance level at 1.075. As a result, a new resistance mark has been established at 1.080. However, it is projected that the currency will experience a downward transition to the Mean Support level mark of 1.066. It will dip further to retest the previously completed Inner Currency Dip at 1.060. Furthermore, the currency is anticipated to continue its downward trajectory, reaching our next Inner Currency Dip level at 1.054.
by TradeSelecter