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Descending triangle on eur/usd Good evening all, It's been a quiet week for the eur/usd with no noticeable movements and events, markets are braced for the G20 meetings on Friday and Saturday and whether this whole trade issue between US and China can finally break down. US GDP came in close to expectations and European cpi is expected to have stabilized. Technically, the pair is still looking bullish-neutral trading above its main moving averages. However, on the hourly chart a descending triangle is forming which usually is a continuation of a downtrend but can sometimes be found as a top , suggesting that the pair may struggle to continue rising and therefore start declining. It is important to wait for a confirmed breakout before placing any sell position since some patterns fail. First support is somewhere near 1.134 ( 200D SMA and 23.6% fibo). First resistance near 1.139 followed by 1.142. Trade safe
by RamziAbouAbdallah-CMT
Is Eur/Usd like a bouncing ball ?Is Eur/Usd like a bouncing ball ? Yes it is. The price returned above the EMA 200 daily. This only after a year and a month that continued to travel under it. At this time, however, the very short/short term scenario seems to have changed. With the break and the closure above the daily EMA200, it is very likely that this uptrend continues up to (at least) 50% of the Fibonacci retracement. Around 1.144,  this area has been tested but it will be necessary to wait for the retest to proceed. In fact, an upward breach in this point will also make investors give up their short positions in favor of long ones. Those will be maintained until the next resistance zone set at around 1.16 (where the EMA200 weekly periods passes). A rejection will make investors increase the short positions of their portfolios. For now the fundamental scenario is quite uncertain: on one hand there is the ECB which will continue to devalue the euro as the Eurozone is not yet ready increase the interest rate, but it needs further money injection to stabilize. On the other hand, the Fed also seems to have revised its monetary policy. By now the rate cut by a quarter of a percentage point is practically certain in July. In fact the market is already discounting it with this "collapse" of the euro. According to some analysts this have raised the probability that in 2019 there may be another 2 rates change, one in September and one at the end of the year. This has strongly destabilized the American currency, which in the last few weeks has lost ground against all the other majors. Trading ideas To conclude Eur/Usd like a bouncing ball and for this reason we recommend opening a long position with a target of 1.144. A trade that partially compensates the other open days ago in the opposite direction. For now, we keep the short trade in the portfolio and add a very short period trade to the target of 1,144.
by BFCMInvest
EURUSD Might Attempt An Up Move to 1.14! A LONG TRADE SETUPENTRY AT AROUND: 1.12600 LEVEL STOP LOSS: 1.12000 TAKE PROFIT: 1.14000 RR: 1:1 On technical perspective the triangle has broken out and the price has retraced for us to go LONG here. The triangle breakout confirms that EURUSD is starting to consolidate and aim towards the weekly 50 EMA. With all the rate cut news going on and the US economy slowing, it should help this PAIR reach the 1.14000 in the near future. shall there be any updates i will update them below. cheers
Long
by FX618Analysis
Fed & Dollar: Expectation and moves; Trump's tweets & EuroPresident Trump said Tuesday morning that Xi Jinping had agreed to meet with him at the Group of 20 summit next week. “We will be having an extended meeting next week at the G-20 in Japan. Our respective teams will begin talks prior to our meeting.” Trump wrote on Twitter. Markets are reacting to this tweet as a signal to relax. However, on our point of view withdrawal from safe-haven assets premature, the growth in demand for risky assets is a dubious idea. The thing is, the conflict parties need to be returned the the negotiation table. Also, Another news that triggered a surge in activity in the foreign exchange market was the statement by the head of the ECB, Mario Draghi, that the rate cut by the ECB is considered by the Central Bank as part of the tool for additional stimulation of the economy. Traders rushed to sell euros. We'll take it slow. Draghi voiced that have already been said by ECB's officials earlier. Well, interest rate management is the basic toolkit of the monetary policy of any Central Bank. So we do not share the enthusiasm of euro sellers and continue to recommend using such descents for its purchases. Well, the main event of the week will be the announcement of the decision of the Federal Open Market Committee on the parameters of monetary policy in the United States. Many people are waiting for lowering interest rates. But if you look at the likelihood of this event, then at the moment it is estimated at 22%, while 78% of traders believe that the rate will be left unchanged. But at the same time, the situation in July is radically different: only 15% believe that the rate will remain at the current level, and 85% think that the rate will be lowered (at least by 0.25% and 18% believe that the decline will generally be 0.5% ). The fact is that the current situation seems ambiguous, so we are supporting those ones who are supporting the lowering. On the one hand, the trade war is uncertainties and risks to the economy. But on the other hand, 10 years in a row, economic growth in the United States has actually shown that it is too early to panic. The data on NFP this month came out disastrous, but retail sales and industrial production in the United States showed good growth. That is, we have a certain balance in the pros and cons of the rate cut today. And this gives the most obvious reason for the US Central Bank to continue to withstand a pause. The question arises "what to do with the dollar ?". Here our position is unequivocal - sell. The chances that the Fed will give reasons for the revitalization of buyers are insignificant. Unless there will be an unequivocal statement about the inexpediency of lowering rates in principle. But the probability of this is extremely small. But the likelihood of the phrase that at the next meeting the rate may be lowered, on the contrary, seems to us quite possible. And this is a signal against the dollar. So, our trading preferences are unchanged: we will look for points for selling the US dollar primarily against the Japanese yen, as well as the euro and the pound, selling oil and the Russian ruble, as well as buying gold.
Short
by Trade24Fx
EURUSD still short On our analysis on the 04.06 we indicated that we were still short ahead of the ECB meeting but EURUSD went up after the ECB did not hint at any potential future rate cuts as anticipated by the market. However, at the ECB forum in Sintra, Mario Draghi indicated that interest rate cuts are a possibility which sent EURUSD tumbling below the 1.11926 Fibonacci level at which point we took some profit. We will now hold our short position and wait for the outcome of the FED rate decision and Powell's speech on Wednesday.
Short
by KQMarkets
Bitcoin storming highs, ECB warns, & Fed preparesThe BTC cryptocurrency rate for the first time since May 2018 exceeded its highest level. The information Facebook Inc. has signed up more than a dozen companies including Visa Inc., Mastercard Inc., PayPal Holdings Inc., and Uber Technologies Inc. to back the new cryptocurrency that the social-media giant plans to unveil next week and launch next year. We consider the cryptocurrency market reaction as inadequate and irrelevant to the importance of the event. Well, the news looks impressive, at first glance.: Visa Inc., Mastercard Inc., PayPal Holdings Inc., and Uber Technologies Inc. invested in cryptocurrency. It would seem that it takes CTC market to a new level. But in fact, it does not. The amount of investment is about $ 10 million from each of the companies. Once again, not billions, but millions (!). On the scale of Visa or Mastercard, this is not even a mathematical error. That is, no revolution has taken place, and the current growth is making such a big deal out of everything. So we do not recommend to take the growth of cryptocurrency at face value. There is the trading proverb: “buy rumours, sell facts.” our advice is acting in accordance with it. So the growth of Bitcoin is a great opportunity for its sales, nothing more. Meanwhile, The ECB confused euro buyers, saying that the Central Bank is ready to take action at any time. It is about both reducing interest rates and returning to quantitative easing in the Eurozone if it needed to support the economy. For the euro, this is so-so news, but again - these are just words. No actual action has been taken yet. But in the United States, these actions could be committed on Wednesday, when the decision of the Federal Open Market Committee will be announced. So far, the markets are on the side of the unchanged rate, but there is a probability of decline, besides, comments are possible with instructions in favor of a rate reduction in July. But we will write more about it and what to do with the dollar tomorrow, that is, on the eve of the announcement of the Fed's verdict. Our trading preferences for today: we will look for points for selling the US dollar primarily against the Japanese yen, as well as the euro and the pound, sell oil and the Russian ruble, and also buy gold.
COINBASE:ETHUSDShort
by Trade24Fx
EURUSD: Break Below 618, Approaching Inside Bar Demand ZoneEURUSD fell as the 618 level failed to hold the price after ECB Draghi signals for more rate cut. The price is approaching the demand zone created with an inside bar breakout that sent the price soaring and break above a 3-month falling channel. What's more important now is how will the Fed react during FOMC as the Fed has already signalled for a probable rate cut earlier. Look for buy opportunity as the price approaches 1.1160.
Long
by AlgoVenture
Mexican peso holiday & central banks are preparing for the worstThe week started quite well for the financial markets and with a huge relief for Mexico in particular. The point is that Trump decided not to impose 5% tariff on Mexican goods. The Mexican peso showed maximum growth over the past year. The Canadian dollar is below 1.33. Therefore a sharp decline in gold and other safe-haven assets against this background can be considered logical and logical. However, we would not advise relaxing. In fact, this is just one of the episodes. But in general, the picture continues to be rather precarious. According to analysts at Morgan Stanley, heightened market optimism is a mistake of investors. Global economic data is likely to begin to deteriorate. Accordingly, Morgan Stanley recommends selling USDJPY with a target of 105. We will continue to look for points to buy gold and Japanese yen on the intraday basis. About the Japanese yen. Yesterday, the head of the Bank of Japan, Haruhiko Kuroda, contributed a lot to yen sales in the foreign exchange market. He said that the Central Bank is ready to expand the list of monetary incentives, if it is necessary. Panicking and selling off the yen is not worth it yet. Well, the Bank of Japan is satisfied with the content of the monetary policy and the general state of the country's economy. Nevertheless, the general trend in the behavior of the leading central banks is pretty clear: all as one declare their readiness to act in response to trade war escalation. Recall, earlier "pigeon" comments were seen by the Fed and the ECB. And the Reserve Bank of Australia, so generally, lowered the rate last week. We would like to note rather weak data from the UK in particular GDP dropped by 0.4% m / m, in April ( the analysts had been expected a declining by 0.1% m / m).In addition, industrial production collapsed by by -2.7% m / m (experts predicted a decline of -1.0% m / m). It is not surprising that the pound was under downward pressure yesterday. Today we are waiting for data on the UK labor market, which might finish the pound. Well, we will see. Our trading preferences for today are as follows: we will continue to look for points for selling the US dollar against the Japanese yen, as well as the euro, oil sales and the Russian ruble, as well as buying gold.
Short
by Trade24Fx
Preparing for the NFP, ECB results & FedMonetary policy decisions. The announcement of the ECB’s decision on the parameters of monetary policy in the euro area was the main event. As expected, no changes followed. The most important thing, as usual, was concentrated in the comments of the Head of the ECB, Mario Draghi. The economic growth forecasts worsened again (the GDP growth rate for 2020 was lowered from 1.6% to 1.4%). In addition, according to Draghi, the ECB is serious about a return to quantitative easing and lower rates. Buying euros after such a speech of the head of the ECB is not worth it, even if you really want to sell a dollar. And today we want to sell the dollar more than ever. In yesterday's review, we have already noted that the figures for the number of jobs in private US companies in May were just awful. + 27K - we have not seen such figures since the global financial crisis. After publishing NFP a couple of times over the past few years, frankly, weak numbers, from time to time, have been shown. But not in the case of data from ADP. It is difficult to imagine a situation in which the data from ADP showed + 27K with the forecast of 180K, and the figures for the NFP come out near + 185K. The level of correlation between these indicators is low, and the methodology for calculating indicators differs, but at the same time, they characterize the same market in the same coordinate system. So today we are waiting for the NFP to lower its forecast. By lower we mean marks + 100K and below. The figure in the range of 30-50K will not surprise us much. But the markets definitely will, provoking massive dollar sales on the entire spectrum of the foreign exchange market. We recommend not waiting for the official figures to be realized, but selling the dollar, since it might be too late. Let us explain why exactly today the weak NFP data is so critical for the dollar. The fact is that the markets are increasingly being discounted for the rate decrease by the Fed in 2019. In particular, the probability that the rate by the end of 2019 will be unchanged is less than 2%. Accordingly, with a 98% probability, it can be argued that the rate in 2019 will be lowered. There is almost a 90% chance that the rate will be reduced twice. At the same time, more than 50% of traders believe that the rate will be reduced 3 times. Plus there is another 17% chance that the rate will be reduced 4 times (!). Note that the probability of this event did not exceed 4% last week. That is, the probability increased by more than 4 times (!).in less than a week. Weak NFP Data will provoke a slowdown and problems in the US economy, but also the Fed will lower rates aggressively. Perhaps at the next meeting in mid-June. Perhaps not by 0.25%, but by 0.5%. Our positions today without any changes: we will continue to look for points for sales of the US dollar, sales of oil and the Russian ruble, as well as buying of gold and the Japanese yen.
TVC:DXYShort
by Trade24Fx
1
EURCHF at important support. 1.14 in sight?The EURCHF pair has reached once again an important support level which can be seen on the weekly chart. The support is formed by a confluence of the 61.8% Fib level and a strong horizontal support - the lower levels of the recent range. Shorter-term charts shows a symmetrical triangle pattern which may soon break out to the upside. The pair may retest the upper range levels around 1.14xx if the mentioned support levels show to hold. The RSI on the daily also shows a bullish divergence. Short-term risks include today's ECB meeting with an expected dovish tone from Draghi, given the recent dovish stance from the Fed and the RBA.
Long
by MujkanovicFX
Dax daily: 06 Jun 2019 Yesterday’s session started without a gap and after a short correction, buyers really headed upwards to higher levels. Unfortunately, the momentum wasn’t strong enough to reach our target at 12 064. The session was then closed near it’s open at 11 986. Important zones Resistance: 12 064 Support: 11 861 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases 13:45 CEST – EUR – Main Refinancing Rate & Monetary Policy Statement 14:30 CEST – ECB Press Conference Today’s session hypothesis Today’s session opened with a gap sized 34 points. This size of the gap has approximately 50 – 65% probability for closing, so no strong edge here, yet such a scenario would be nice for this morning. For today, we expect a weaker activity up till the ECB rate decision and the Monetary Policy Statement. The more important though will be Draghi’s presser later on at 2.30pm CEST. The ECB’s bias could influence the rest of today’s price action. On the long side, we still target the 12 064 level. On the short side, our focus is on the support level of 11 861.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
1
EURAED sellEUR has been on the rise, getting plenty of strength against USD, GBP, HKD and AED in particular over the last few days. This can come to an end as early as tomorrow then the ECB is releasing their interest rate decision and hold a press conference in regards to their monetary policy. There is also GDP news before that; let's also not forget that inflation is really low. Therefore, if they turn dovish like the FED did recently then we could see EUR weakness across the board yet again. In such a scenario, we could see the EURAED rate drop closer to 4.10 or below, with the 4.11 level being the first test (50-day average) and then the 4.085 area being the first real level of support as the daily and weekly candle chart is indicating.
Short
by InvestmentPros
What is going on Eur/Usd ?What is going on Eur/Usd ? So the price is undergoing a very short-term rebound. This allowed the price to return in the 1.12 area. In fact, after entering short about a month ago and reaching the first target in the area of 1,112 (as indicated in the previous analysis), the price returned again near the previous entry point. Technically, the trend still remains bearish on the main TFs, with the price still below all the main EMA and key static resistances. To reverse the trend in the very short/short period, the price should break the weekly dynamic resistance identified by EMA20 and passer for the 1,126. To reverse it in the short / medium term, the price should even violate upwards the dynamic resistance identified by the EMA200 and passing through the 1.16. The technical analysis is strongly supported by the fundamental scenario. During the week Draghi will speak, declaring the monetary policy that the ECB will adopt in the short term. Which should not surprise analysts and investors, who still expect a strongly expansive policy. This could devaluing the euro, which should loss against the other majors. We expect that this downtrend will start again. So because of what is going on Eur/Usd the first target remains the support area at 1.112; the last target we expect the area located at 1.08.
Short
by BFCMInvest
World war and dollar, useless bitcoin and plans for the weekDay by day the situation with a trade war is getting worse. On Friday, for example, the Mexican peso showed the strongest drop in the last seven months after the announcement of the introduction of new US duties on Mexican goods in response to the flow of illegal immigrants. It was a surprise to the markets since the agreement between the USA, Mexico and Canada did not provide for such a development of events. From June 10, duties on imports from Mexico will be 5%. But this is not the worst. If Mexico could not solve the problem of illegal immigrants, duties will gradually increase until they reach 25% by October. Interestingly enough how the US dollar reacted to this news, which has declined significantly in the foreign exchange market against major currencies. One of the reasons for this was the revision of the market expectations of the Fed. Last week, we already noted that markets tend toward two or even three rate cuts by the end of 2019. So, after hitting Mexico, markets began to incorporate the option in which the rate would be reduced 4 (!) Times. The chance is extremely small (for now) - only 4%. But the trend is the key thing, that plays exclusively against the dollar. Our recommendation on working with the dollar for this week in the light of such events remains unchanged, we only strengthened in our desire to sell the dollar. On Friday, Canadian GDP data was published. GDP growth was + 0.5% m / m and + 1.4% y / y when the forecast was + 0.4% m / m and + 1.2% y / y. Only events around Mexico (which call into question the fate of the USMCA, have kept it from growing but despite it, this is decently a signal in favor of buying the Canadian dollar. Last week, the Bitcoin price rose above $ 9,000, which again grew up chatter about the prospects of its growth. We found Chainalysis Inc., information interesting, according to which only 1.3% of Bitcoin operations were carried out with the aim of serving trade and commercial activity. That says that practically ALL operations with cryptocurrency are purely speculative in its nature (90% of Bitcoin operations are exchange transactions on different exchanges). In this regard, we recall our position - any growth of Bitcoin is a reason for its sales. Current prices are the best for this. The upcoming week promises to be difficult. Their decisions on the parameters of monetary policy will announce the Reserve Bank of Australia and the ECB, and the US will announce statistics on the labor market at the end of the week. Our positions for today and the week as a whole are following: we will look for points for buying of the euro and the pound against the US dollar, sales of oil and the Russian ruble, as well as buying of gold and the Japanese yen. In addition, quite interesting, in our opinion, is buying of the Canadian dollar against the US dollar.
TVC:DXYShort
by Trade24Fx