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Draghi departure & fate of euro, CB of Canada & Japan decisionThe main event on the foreign exchange market yesterday was the announcement of the outcome of the Bank of Canada meeting. For the fourth time, the Central Bank did not raise the rate. The decision is predictable and has been accounted for in the Canadian dollar price. But what was not considered? The fact that the Bank of Canada completely removed the mention of the possibility of a rate hike in the future from its statement. This was a surprise. For the Canadian dollar surprises with a “minus sign”. So, its sales could be called logical. The rest of the Wednesday was a rather quiet day. Dollar growth has stalled. In the absence of additional drivers for growth. However, today a surge of volatility in dollar pairs might occur after the publication of data on orders for durable goods in the United States. Well, almost certainly not avoid a “roller coaster” on Friday, when data on US GDP for the first quarter will be published. In relation to relatively calm news background, investors and traders decided to attend to promising events. In particular, what will happen with the euro after the Mario Draghi departure from the post of President of the ECB? According to analysts at UBS, the euro is waiting for its growth regardless of who takes the chair. Motivation - a new president - is a reason to start tightening monetary policy in the Eurozone. That is a positive factor for the euro anyway. So those who are engaged in long-term trading should pay attention to buying euros, which is quite cheap lately. Another important Central Bank’s meeting this time in Japan was held today. Traditionally, the Bank of Japan did not adjust the country's monetary policy. But at the same time, Central Bank made it clear that the ultra-soft monetary policy will continue until at least 2020. In addition, the Central Bank lowered its forecasts for inflation and GDP in Japan. In general, this is quite a sickening blow to the yen, so its sales remain relevant. So, we are continuing to recommend to buy USDJPY. According to the US Department of Energy, oil reserves in the United States have risen sharply over the past week (+5.479 million with a forecast of +1.0 million). Despite this clearly bearish signal, oil did not decline. This once again confirms the current situation in the oil market: buyers dominate. This means that it is necessary to continue to look for points for buying on the intraday basis. As for our other positions, today we are continuing to look for points for selling the dollar against the euro, pound, and also the franc. In addition, we return to the gold buying on the intraday basis.
by Trade24Fx
EUR/USD breakout soon ?Hello traders, This pair has been trading in a narrow range for the recent days where bulls and bears are fighting to take control Bulls aim to break 1.132-3 resistance area in order to keep advancing towards higher levels near 1.139 where sits a 7-month down trend-line. Bears aim to break 1.127-5 support area in order to keep retreating towards lower levels near 1.12-1.118, the YTD low. Watch out for these two levels for a better view. Fundamentally, the risk is still tilted downward as the euro zone is still struggling to recover and expand and the ecb still in accommodating mode not willing to raise rates anytime soon. Trade safe.
by RamziAbouAbdallah-CMT
Not the best day for the dollar, split in the ECB, April pound The pound “reacted” to the UK data came out earlier, more than calmly. Meanwhile, investors and traders are betting whether the pound will confirm the existence of the “April Rally” pattern or not. Recall that over the last 13 years (with the exception of the last year), the pound in April strengthened against the dollar. This was perhaps the strongest seasonal trend among the currencies of group 10. The reason for the existence of such a pattern is rather prosaic: many British companies are transnational. Received dividends abroad, they transfer them home, that means, convert them into pounds. This model worked even during the global financial crisis of 2008. But last year, by the end of April, the pound fell against the dollar. The reason is clear - Brexit. At the moment, experts are puzzled if last year was an exception to the rule and the pound will rise again in April. Or Brexit broke the pattern and April is no longer an indication that the pound will grow. Let’s back to yesterday's statistics. Industrial production in the US in March decreased by 0.1% (analysts had expected an increase of 0.2%). In general, this is another alarming signal for the US economy and the dollar in particular. It's going to be more interesting watching the statistics on retail sales in the United States on Thursday. If the data comes out weak, then sales of the dollar, apparently, cannot be avoided. Moreover, Charles Evans, the President, and CEO of the FRB of Chicago said that the scenario in which the Fed does not raise rates until 2020 is quite likely. Another interesting news was the information from Reuters that some ECB politicians believe that the bank’s economic forecasts are too optimistic because the weakness of economic growth in China and trade tensions persist. Although the information from Reuters is unofficial, the signal is negative for the euro both in terms of the state of the Eurozone economy and in terms of the fact that in such conditions it is not necessary to expect the ECB’s monetary policy to tighten in the foreseeable future. Let’s talk about macroeconomic statistics. The most important data from China (GDP, industrial production and retail sales) have already been published. All data came out better than expected, which should reassure the markets. In addition, the Eurozone and the UK inflation statistics will be published as well as Canada. It is also worth paying attention to data on the US trade balance. Also on Wednesday, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney is scheduled to give a speech, that could trigger a surge of volatility in pound pairs. As for our trading preferences, we will continue to look for points for dollar sales in the foreign exchange market (with the exception of USDJPY, which we are still buying), buying gold and oil in the commodity markets and keep on selling the Russian ruble.
Long
by Trade24Fx
Disaster cooking in Turkey=> For those who believe in the bearish Turkey story, we are in the early stages of a 5th wave which we mentioned in our previous ideas... it can be seen clearly here and shows how the floodgates for the highs are wide open. From a technical perspective the 5th wave target, the first major target is 7.85 (assuming wave 5 is a 1.00 ratio in length of wave 1). Given the nature of this rally so far there is a very large chance this can extend well beyond the initial targets as far as the 2.168 extension above the highs. It is also worth noting for those following EW that the 5th wave usually marks new highs... confidence in this view will increase above the 161.8% so for those wanting a less aggressive entry you can sit tight and watch closely and good luck to those wanting to pull the trigger early for the next few Quarters in 2019. This is going to be a monstrous move and worth tracking for those interested in watching the EM collapse continue.
Long
by ridethepig
15
EURUSD decision 1.12 or above 1.13?EURUSD can go lower as pattern shows price facing 1.1278, 20day EMA, if we see this resistance broken next level to aim is 1.1240. Upside resistance sits at 1.1330. MACD on 4h chart still in bullish mode. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Risk Warning: Trading on the Financial Markets, Stock Exchange and all its asset derivatives is highly speculative and may not be suitable for all investors. Only invest with money you can afford to lose and ensure that you fully understand the risks involved. Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Supplied information is not an advice.
by TheTrade_Academ
EURUSD H & S Pattern to Continue after recovery towards 1.14500!HEAD AND SHOULDER PATTERN WAS ALREADY COMPLETED SOME MONTHS AGO ON THE WEEKLY CHARTS! Since then the price has been dropping towards the target and the next support that lies in the region of 1.1000. At the moment the EUR Is too oversold which is also evident on the RSI of daily charts (bullish divergence), The SPOT would likely recover some of its losses until the weekly 50 EMA where the price has been rejected on more than two occasions! It will be more beneficial for the bears to wait until the price hits 1.14500 level where the weekly 50 EMA lies. Once the price HITS it will a good level to execute a SHORT trade with target being 1.09000 level and STOP LOSS set at 1:1 risk to reward ratio. For the BULLS the short term trade setup should target the 1.14500 after where its suggested to close the trade as the selling pressure would resume massively towards the 1.09000 target! Fundamentals are also on bears side as the EU (italy) is on the verge of recession and amid slowing eurozone economy might not help the EUR at all. As for the USD, the trade deal is nearly complete which would initiate the risk ON appetite in the market making the demand for the greenback high. THIS JUST REPRESENTS MY ANALYSIS AND ITS NOT A TRADE SIGNAL FROM ME. ANY DECISION IS SOLELY BASED ON YOUR FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL JUDGEMENT OF THE MARKET. I AM A BEAR ON THIS TRADE AND ONCE THE WEEKLY 50 EMA IS REACHED I WILL PLACE A SHORT TRADE. I WILL UPDATE THE CRITERIA FOR TRADE ENTRY IN A NEW POST. PLEASE LEAVE A LIKE FOR YOUR SUPPORT AND FOLLOW ME IF YOU ARE INTERESTED IN MY IDEAS. THANK YOU
Short
by FX618Analysis
The ECB, Brexit, the Fed and capital flight from the RFThere were no particularly strong movements in the foreign exchange market on Wednesday. So let us analyze the main events of yesterday. The ECB left the rate unchanged. The Draghi conference was perceived by the markets quite cool, at least judging by the dynamics of the euro. Although the head of the ECB did not say anything new. He noted that the output data remains weak. As for the details of the TLTRO program, they will be announced later and will depend on the economic situation. So we see no reason to change our recommendation on buying EURUSD from the current lower limit of the medium-term range. UK Macroeconomic statistics appeared quite good on Wednesday. GDP turned out to be better than analysts 'forecasts (0.2% m / m with a forecast of 0% m / m) in February, industrial production was also higher than experts' expectations (+ 0.6% m / m with a forecast of +0.1). However, the reaction of the pound was quite restrained. The reason for this is the expectation of the EU Brexit decision. As we expected the EU gave Britain a Brexit delay on its own terms. Brexit delayed until October 31. Such decision had no significant effect on our position. We will continue to buy a pound on descents. It is not necessary to wait for the pound growth in the foreseeable future above 1.40. In any case, it will not be boring. May still needs to convince Parliament that such a long delay is justified, so you should not relax. Another important event on Wednesday was the publication of the minutes of the last FOMC Fed meeting. Despite the good dynamics of the US economy, the Fed sees a significant amount of risk from the outside. Accordingly, interest rate decisions will directly depend on the state of both the internal and external influence. At the same time, the Fed is prepared both to raise the rate and lower it. Well, while in conditions of uncertainty, the best option is to keep rates at current levels. Our position on the dollar remains unchanged - we are looking for points for its selling on the intraday basis. We continue to talk about the ruble. The urgency of this increases with its attempt to grow. So yesterday, the ruble continued to strengthen, and we consider it our duty to recall why this is temporary and why it is worth selling. Yesterday we already wrote about a 10 trillion hole in the Russian banking system, and today we will talk about capital outflow from Russia. According to the data of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, the net outflow of foreign investments from the authorized capital of Russian companies of non-financial sector rose to $ 6.5 billion last year, which is a record value in the entire history of statistics since 1997. Against this background, Goldman Sachs released their forecast for the actions of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation in terms of the discount rate. Goldman analysts are expecting it to drop to 6.5%: in 2019 twice, each time by 25 basis points, and another three times by 25 basis points, that is 75 basis points, in 2020. All this is definitely a bearish signal. They do not relate to immediate factors, but these are the things that determine the fundamental value of an asset. In this case it is the Russian ruble. So we continue to recommend its sales.
Long
by Trade24Fx
4
ECB, EU summit and Brexit, Trump's threats and IMF outlookWednesday promises to be a difficult day for the euro and the pound. There are two extremely important events will take place today: the ECB meeting and emergency summit of EU leaders to consider UK request for further extension until 30 June, with the option of an earlier Brexit day if a deal can be agreed. Let's start with the ECB meeting. Surprises are not expected by markets. The bet might be left unchanged. Everybody will be interested in details of the ECB long-term lending program. In general, we do not expect any bullish signals for the euro, but there should also be no reasons for its sales. In this regard, our position on the euro today is as follows: since the EURUSD is at the lower limit of the medium-term range, we give preference to buying with stops below 1.1170 and profit close to 1.1400. The information that Trump is preparing to open up a new front in the trade wars could be the problem for the euro. This time he is going to attack Europe. The White House reported that they are considering to moves to impose tariffs on $11 Billion of EU Goods in response to Airbus subsidies, which was declared illegal by the World Trade Organization. The list of goods that come under attack includes not only airplanes and helicopters, but also products of the agro-industrial complex, in particular cheese and wine. The EU emergency summit seems to be much less predictable by the results of the event and explosions of volatility in pound pairs by its results are very likely. April 12, the UK must leave the EU. Following yesterday's parliamentary vote, approval of the withdrawal agreement has not been given by the UK Parliament so it should be a “No-deal” Brexit. The option is unprofitable for both parties, so we believe that the summit is unlikely to end up being just shown to the UK at the door. This will definitely be a hit to the pound and in this case its fall will be rapid and strong. Accordingly, the second alternative comes into play - to give the UK another chance. This is the most likely scenario. But he is also divided into alternatives. The first is that the EU satisfies May’s request and extends Brexit’s deadline until June. The second is that the EU is offering Britain a postponement for a long term (for example, a year). Since the initiative is on the EU side, it seems to us that the summit will end up with the EU’s agreement for a long delay. In general, both of these options are positive for the pound. So, as a basic plan for working with pound pairs for today is looking for points for its buying. The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday cut its global growth outlook for the third time in a row. The IMF projects global economic growth of 3.3% this year. As expected, the economies of developed countries in 2019 will grow by 1.8%, and developing countries - by 4.4%. GDP of China and the United States should increase by 6.3% and 2.3%. This is another reason to pay attention to buying of safe-haven assets. Recall, our recommendation for buying gold on the intraday basis continues to be relevant.
Long
by Trade24Fx
EURUSD - New Lows Over The Horizon So, starting with the fundamentals, we see no major news at the start of the week. However, there is volatile EUR news on Wednesday, with the main refinancing rate being released as well as the Monetary Policy Statement at 12:45 GMT. The Monetary Policy is crucial to understand data on interest rates and inflation. On to the technicals and starting on the daily timeframe, we can see a clear downtrend with a range of lower highs and lower lows. We have a descending trend line that was respected, however we saw one spike/false break-out by +/- 50 pips above the trend line. We then saw price snap back lower from this region of resistance met. At this current moment in time it is clear we are currently consolidating within a +/- 70 pip range. We are also sitting at an interesting daily key level where I see two scenarios playing out. We can either treat this daily key level as support and spike back up to test the descending trendline, as well as the 61.8% Fibonacci level marked in a red rectangular strip, create a reversal pattern, a lower high and in turn a new leg to the downside. OR, what I see having more potential is price falling from its current position. Reason being, We can see this triangle chart pattern and a flat base on the daily key. We've had 3 drives into this area of support. The first drive to the low was Mid-November, second drive early-March and now we currently testing it for the third time. We have reached the base and we have not seen a bounce or any buying pressure. Hence, my thoughts of going short sooner than later. If we put the EMA's on, we can see a clear bearish trend as well as we have rejected the blue MA, with price trading below both EMA's. Dropping down to the 4HR timeframe, I have a counter trend line drawn, which price broke below on the 3rd touch as well as it closed below. A retest and bounce back lower is expected. Drawing out a Fibonacci on the most recent High to Low, we can maybe see a retracement of 30 pips before going lower after seeing a rejection of resistance, the counter trend line, EMA's as well as the Fibonacci, all giving us confluence to go short. Ultimately, I'd like to see price come back down to the 1.0800 price region as price gapped in April 2017 and we haven't seen this correction in the market as of yet. However, my first take profit will be the weekly key level of 1.10900. As always traders, have a great trading week, ensure you are using correct and suitable risk/money management as well as ensuring your psychology is 100%.
Short
by KeownArcher
European markets keen to adaptEuropean Union leaders are open to new deals with China. In order to hedge the current risk of US trade tariffs China has spread its trade network far and wide. All over Africa, Chinese companies have invested and gained majority shares in mining companies, utilities and agriculture. Next week we will see during the EU-China summit what investments China will make in the EU. There is a large network of political advocates for China across Europe. This is more under the radar influence balance that is being stepped up by EU leaders as we head towards Parliament elections in May. In addition to trade talks with China, EU ambassadors are preparing to go ahead with trade talks with the US. France is the only nation to hold off on their consent. The trading bloc is eager to begin cutting industrial tariffs. Any additional tariffs or disputes with the US would come at a very bad time for the EU. The economic struggle in the EU is apparent and data sets have dragged the Euro down. The European Central Bank will publish their monetary policy meeting minutes on Wednesday, shedding a light on a discussion that motivated ECB President Mario Draghi’s announcement that officials should reflect on ways to offset negative interest rates currently in the European Union. There could a plan in the works at providing a bailout for European banks that are suffering loses to their profit margins. The Euro is bouncing off of a key support level of 1.1200. Technical analysis shows us that we are still in a bearish consolidation and we need to break the trendline to the top and solidify there. Once price breaks above 1.1300 we can start to look for long positions after we get confirmation of commitment from bullish traders.
Long
by YaroslavBirchenko
1
May vs Parliament, lira fevers, and sales have dropped off in USMonday was a very busy day for financial markets. It was partly due to the processing of weekend news (May's statement on Brexit, the results of the elections in Turkey), partly with new news stories. But first things first. Brexit news. May’s attempt to hold the fourth vote in a row failed so far. Monday didn’t bring anything new to the current Brexit scenario. What do we have today? Postponement Brexit until May 22, the UK is not available. Now the country must either leave the EU on April 12 or request another delay. The second option is basic. But the timing of the delay - an indefinite value. As we warned it could be a year. However, you should not relax this week. May may still “push” the vote, early parliamentary elections are possible, May’s resignation and much more is possible. So you should be “careful” with the pound. Very volatile in recent days in pairs with Turkish lira. This time the outcome was the results of the municipal elections in Turkey. Erdogan and his coalition were defeated in elections in 40 out of 81 polling stations (previously controlled by 49 municipalities), and he has lost Ankara and Istanbul. The central bank of Turkey, meanwhile, literally “burns” its foreign exchange reserves to stabilize the lira. According to data published on Friday, Turkey’s reserves have decreased by one third over the past month (!). Yesterday’s macroeconomic statistics. The most important, perhaps, were the data on retail sales in the United States. They appeared worse than analysts' expectations and showed a decline for the month (-0.2% m / m with a forecast of + 0.2% m / m). That did not bother buyers of the dollar and it continue to strengthen. However, we recommend looking for points for selling dollar on the intraday basis. Consumer inflation in the Eurozone came out slightly below the expectations of experts. At the same time, the PMI index in the Eurozone production sector was also worse than forecasts and below 50 (47.5, with the forecast of 47.6). So, it is clearly premature to expect monetary policy tightening by the ECB. Oil continued its growth yesterday. It is worth noting that the first quarter of 2019 was the best for the oil market since 2002 - the asset after it rose by 32%. This once again confirms the current market sentiment. So we continue to recommend looking for points to buy an asset on the intraday basis. In addition, we are looking for points for buying gold on the intraday basis, selling the dollar and the Russian ruble.
by Trade24Fx
Buy EURUSDEURUSD is bouncing from the ascending trend line on daily time frame supporting the bullish view on the short term. SL should be placed under the 1.12 level. ECB will announce its rate decision tomorrow, although the inflation and growth risk are skewed to the downside but Q1 data is weak and could make Mario Draghi express his concern about economy losing its momentum which could put pressure on rate hike in 2019 summer expectations, and leaves the door open for additional easing measures. albeit I would prefer buying the pair from low level rather than selling it. Goodluck
Long
by Assem_Mansour
The price returned to test the medium term key supportThe price returned to test. The price returned to test the medium term key support at 123.8. If it were violated to the downside with closure below it would be a strongly bearish scenario. This would immediately lead it to the next static support at 122.6. Within a couple of sessions then could try to break it down. The pair could reach the next support area at 118 in a week. If, on the other hand, this level, where is the price now, resisted, a very short uptrend will follow up to the static resistance set at 125.7. Most plausible scenario Given the macroeconomic situation that is causing markets and investors worry, it is very likely that shortly we will be able to see a retracement of the main indices. This shifting investors to Japan’s currency. The scenario that is taking shape in the European currency also weighs heavily. The ECB’s stagnant economic and monetary policy is weakening the euro. The currency will continue to depreciate throughout 2019.
Short
by BFCMInvest
No Deal Brexit Worse than Slower GrowthI've talked extensively on how a no deal Brexit is more likely here: This is primarily my reasoning behind why I'm neutral to short on EURUSD in the medium- to long-term (1 to 3 months). There's plenty of other good reasons to be short EURUSD including continued weak data releases from the Eurozone, possible continuation of a recession in Italy, and potential negative growth for Germany in Q1 2019. While I think that the euro can make some moves to the upside, it is still probably limited to the downward channel with short-term monthly resistance in spite of a break in this resistance last week. For more, check out www.anthonylaurence.wordpress.com
by WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3
Focus will shift to additional ECB easing very soonThe removal of 2019 hikes is worth highlighting because it does not fully support the story we are being told from macro data meaning the bar is set high for any further hikes. History tells us it’s very unusual for the Fed to pause for a long time in hiking cycles before resuming meaning this is likely the end of hikes in the cycle. See tradingview for a more detailed review of the Fed. Focus will soon shift back to additional easing from the ECB who are more dovish than Fed so any upside will remain capped in EURUSD. I remain confident in the 1.09 forecast for Q2. We have PMIs tomorrow, inline or overshoots there will be enough to turn the ship south...otherwise we are set for more consolidation. Good luck
Short
by ridethepig
1
Expecting Bearish Movement !!Trend line, Price action, Expecting bearish movement, ECB President Draghi speaks on Wednesday , so there is a minor chance for price to go up during his speech or after. But hey traders trend line is our friend. Good luck!! Time to go to the gym for workout, need to be physically strong, it helps to become mentally strong. And i am sure you know how important it is to become mentally strong, if you want to become Forex millionaire.............)
Short
by Shourov_kk
"One and Done" ... An update to EURUSD for FEDOn the monetary side, Fed taking the spotlight so let’s start digging into the details… Expecting the Fed to lower the “dots” signalling one hike in 2019 … a “one and done” approach. June seems unlikely now as the Fed has started to focus on inflation to keep equity markets happy. My base case is for a hike in December meaning the dollar looks underpriced at current levels and with a lingering ECB easing risk premium EURUSD will start the leg lower after we clear Fed and PMIs. From a technical standpoint we are sitting at strong resistance, any kneejerks higher (unlikely) will attract a lot of selling interest. Best of luck all those trading Fed
Short
by ridethepig
2
Brexit, Bank of England and Norwegian kroneThe key event on Thursday was the announcement of the results of the Bank of England meeting. As expected, there were no surprises: the rate left unchanged, as the volume of the quantitative easing program. However, the statement that perhaps a gradual limited tightening of the policy may be needed, can be interpreted as a “hawkish” and this is good for pound. And before that, the British currency ignored the excellent data on retail sales in the UK in February (+ 0.4% m / m + 4.0% y / y, with the forecast -0.4% m / m + 3.3% y / y). The reason for such attitude is clear. This, of course, is about Brexit. Recall yesterday the EU had to give the UK a response regarding the postponement of Brexit. Brussels gave Teresa May a two-week delay. The current situation is: if next week the British Parliament does not approve the deal, then by April 12, Britain should decide whether to seek a much longer delay or British leave the EU without a deal. This could be used to buy the pound cheaper. Meanwhile, The Central Bank of Norway, raised the rate on Thursday. This is the second increase since last September. Against the background of the negative rates of the ECB, such actions of the Central Bank look simply defiant. As a result, the Norwegian krone continues to strengthen in the foreign exchange market. We recommend to pay attention to its medium-term purchases. Considering how aggressively the Bank of Norway is behaving. The current uptrend of the krona is in the process of being formulated Today is going to be kind of busy with macroeconomic statistics data such as: retail sales and inflation in Canada, indices of business activity in the Eurozone and the United States, so it is not going to be boring. Our basic trading positions are unchanged: we are looking for points for selling the dollar in the foreign exchange market. We are buying oil and gold, increasing the short position in ruble, and now we are taking a medium-term long position in the Norwegian krone.
by Trade24Fx
Gold - favourable environment ($1320/25 and $1346.40 in play 2Q)Gold - favourable environment in uncertain world ($1320/25 and $1346.40 in play 2Q19) - Gold is the main beneficiary of the current path of softening tone from the world's most imminent central banks (ECB 7.03, Fed 20.03, RBA, BOC, PBOC, etc). - Liquidity is one of the factors supporting gold. The relaunch of TLTRO in Europe and the ending of QT in the US. - The final stage of the business cycle and slowing world economy is making gold attractive in terms of allocation a bit of assets (10%-15%) during next 4-6 quarters getting good average price. - Although gold isn't pretty cheap (at least inexpensive or smth equal to "hold") after 9.4% rally during last six months and 2.6% ytd it still has potential for rebound towards $1320/25, $1346.40 or even $1355/65 this year in case of more prominent debate on rate cut in Europe or the US. - Any profit taking in gold could be limited by support at $1283 or $1276 and weakness below $1300 seems to be a buying opportunity for short-term and mid-term speculative horizon. Bull case is intact until gold prices trade above EMA(200) at 1270$. - $1250 and lower looks like "cheap" gold in terms of long-term investments.
TVC:GOLDLong
by FXtape