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ECB signals, US threats, Roubini ’s predictions, and ruble limitDespite the extremely weak statistics from the Eurozone published on Monday and rather depressing data on producer prices, published on Tuesday, the euro tone was relatively good in the foreign exchange market yesterday. The reason was the information that the ECB is not ready to resort to additional monetary incentives. Therefore you should not expect to ease monetary policy. Despite the record series of the US economic growth, a lot of experts continue to fear for the global economy a bright future in general and the United States in particular. So Nouriel Roubini in a recent interview noted that we might be headed for another recession. The world central banks have essentially exhausted their limit of instruments (it is simply impossible to easy monetary policy for many countries), and, at the same time, the debts of countries are increasing, which is a serious threat. The trade war is a trigger for recessionary processes says, Roubini. The US seems to be interested in Europe, again. The United States, in an ongoing dispute over subsidizing the aviation industry (the European Union illegally subsidized Airbus Corp), is considering imposing tariffs on an additional 89 items with an annual trade volume of $ 4 billion, including cheese, pasta, whiskey, metals, and chemical products. In this light, a sharp increase in gold is quite understandable. Meanwhile, the majority of respondents believe that the ruble has reached its ceiling and it’s simply no way to grow to, Bloomberg's latest monthly survey found. In the future, the decline of the Russian currency is inevitable. Moreover, the state itself is interested in a weak ruble. Recall that the existing budget rule is aimed at artificially creating an imbalance in the foreign exchange market in favor of the dollar and against the ruble. For instance, since the fiscal rule has been imposed, the ruble fell against the dollar by almost 5%, but at the same time, oil prices rose by 17%. That is, the ruble becomes cheaper even if oil prices rise. Well, if they start to fall, it will just be cheaper as well but faster. In this light, it is useful to recall our constant recommendation to sell the Russian ruble on its any growth. In terms of macroeconomic statistics, yesterday was relatively calm in terms of macroeconomic statistics. The index of business activity in the construction sector showed its lowest figures since 2009 (43.1, with forecast of 49.3). Data on employment in the US from ADP is what we are interested in today. Recall that last time they signaled about future problems in the data from the NFP. So we closely monitor the indicator and prepare to sell the dollar in case of its failure. In addition, we are waiting for data on business activity and the trade balance in the United States. Our trading recommendations for today: we are looking for points for sales of the dollar and the Russian ruble, as well as AUDUSD. We sell oil. We can not but note that gold current price is extremely attractive for sales, but do not forget to be careful.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Trade24Fx
1
EURUSD Still ShortOn our analysis as at the 21.06 we indicated that we were still short EURUSD after the relatively Dovish FOMC meeting and had increased our short position. However, the currency pair rose towards 1.14 before dropping sharply Monday below 1.13 on the back of weaker than expected EU PMI data and stronger than expected US ISM data. Additionally, the US is threatening tariffs on EU goods which has prevented EURUSD rebounding on the back of indications today that the ECB will be more patient in future rate cuts and additional QE than had been expected. We therefore maintain our short position and will look to take profit if the currency pair drops below 1.12.
Short
by KQMarkets
Descending triangle on eur/usd Good evening all, It's been a quiet week for the eur/usd with no noticeable movements and events, markets are braced for the G20 meetings on Friday and Saturday and whether this whole trade issue between US and China can finally break down. US GDP came in close to expectations and European cpi is expected to have stabilized. Technically, the pair is still looking bullish-neutral trading above its main moving averages. However, on the hourly chart a descending triangle is forming which usually is a continuation of a downtrend but can sometimes be found as a top , suggesting that the pair may struggle to continue rising and therefore start declining. It is important to wait for a confirmed breakout before placing any sell position since some patterns fail. First support is somewhere near 1.134 ( 200D SMA and 23.6% fibo). First resistance near 1.139 followed by 1.142. Trade safe
by RamziAbouAbdallah-CMT
Is Eur/Usd like a bouncing ball ?Is Eur/Usd like a bouncing ball ? Yes it is. The price returned above the EMA 200 daily. This only after a year and a month that continued to travel under it. At this time, however, the very short/short term scenario seems to have changed. With the break and the closure above the daily EMA200, it is very likely that this uptrend continues up to (at least) 50% of the Fibonacci retracement. Around 1.144,  this area has been tested but it will be necessary to wait for the retest to proceed. In fact, an upward breach in this point will also make investors give up their short positions in favor of long ones. Those will be maintained until the next resistance zone set at around 1.16 (where the EMA200 weekly periods passes). A rejection will make investors increase the short positions of their portfolios. For now the fundamental scenario is quite uncertain: on one hand there is the ECB which will continue to devalue the euro as the Eurozone is not yet ready increase the interest rate, but it needs further money injection to stabilize. On the other hand, the Fed also seems to have revised its monetary policy. By now the rate cut by a quarter of a percentage point is practically certain in July. In fact the market is already discounting it with this "collapse" of the euro. According to some analysts this have raised the probability that in 2019 there may be another 2 rates change, one in September and one at the end of the year. This has strongly destabilized the American currency, which in the last few weeks has lost ground against all the other majors. Trading ideas To conclude Eur/Usd like a bouncing ball and for this reason we recommend opening a long position with a target of 1.144. A trade that partially compensates the other open days ago in the opposite direction. For now, we keep the short trade in the portfolio and add a very short period trade to the target of 1,144.
by BFCMInvest
EURUSD Might Attempt An Up Move to 1.14! A LONG TRADE SETUPENTRY AT AROUND: 1.12600 LEVEL STOP LOSS: 1.12000 TAKE PROFIT: 1.14000 RR: 1:1 On technical perspective the triangle has broken out and the price has retraced for us to go LONG here. The triangle breakout confirms that EURUSD is starting to consolidate and aim towards the weekly 50 EMA. With all the rate cut news going on and the US economy slowing, it should help this PAIR reach the 1.14000 in the near future. shall there be any updates i will update them below. cheers
Long
by FX618Analysis
Fed & Dollar: Expectation and moves; Trump's tweets & EuroPresident Trump said Tuesday morning that Xi Jinping had agreed to meet with him at the Group of 20 summit next week. “We will be having an extended meeting next week at the G-20 in Japan. Our respective teams will begin talks prior to our meeting.” Trump wrote on Twitter. Markets are reacting to this tweet as a signal to relax. However, on our point of view withdrawal from safe-haven assets premature, the growth in demand for risky assets is a dubious idea. The thing is, the conflict parties need to be returned the the negotiation table. Also, Another news that triggered a surge in activity in the foreign exchange market was the statement by the head of the ECB, Mario Draghi, that the rate cut by the ECB is considered by the Central Bank as part of the tool for additional stimulation of the economy. Traders rushed to sell euros. We'll take it slow. Draghi voiced that have already been said by ECB's officials earlier. Well, interest rate management is the basic toolkit of the monetary policy of any Central Bank. So we do not share the enthusiasm of euro sellers and continue to recommend using such descents for its purchases. Well, the main event of the week will be the announcement of the decision of the Federal Open Market Committee on the parameters of monetary policy in the United States. Many people are waiting for lowering interest rates. But if you look at the likelihood of this event, then at the moment it is estimated at 22%, while 78% of traders believe that the rate will be left unchanged. But at the same time, the situation in July is radically different: only 15% believe that the rate will remain at the current level, and 85% think that the rate will be lowered (at least by 0.25% and 18% believe that the decline will generally be 0.5% ). The fact is that the current situation seems ambiguous, so we are supporting those ones who are supporting the lowering. On the one hand, the trade war is uncertainties and risks to the economy. But on the other hand, 10 years in a row, economic growth in the United States has actually shown that it is too early to panic. The data on NFP this month came out disastrous, but retail sales and industrial production in the United States showed good growth. That is, we have a certain balance in the pros and cons of the rate cut today. And this gives the most obvious reason for the US Central Bank to continue to withstand a pause. The question arises "what to do with the dollar ?". Here our position is unequivocal - sell. The chances that the Fed will give reasons for the revitalization of buyers are insignificant. Unless there will be an unequivocal statement about the inexpediency of lowering rates in principle. But the probability of this is extremely small. But the likelihood of the phrase that at the next meeting the rate may be lowered, on the contrary, seems to us quite possible. And this is a signal against the dollar. So, our trading preferences are unchanged: we will look for points for selling the US dollar primarily against the Japanese yen, as well as the euro and the pound, selling oil and the Russian ruble, as well as buying gold.
Short
by Trade24Fx
EURUSD still short On our analysis on the 04.06 we indicated that we were still short ahead of the ECB meeting but EURUSD went up after the ECB did not hint at any potential future rate cuts as anticipated by the market. However, at the ECB forum in Sintra, Mario Draghi indicated that interest rate cuts are a possibility which sent EURUSD tumbling below the 1.11926 Fibonacci level at which point we took some profit. We will now hold our short position and wait for the outcome of the FED rate decision and Powell's speech on Wednesday.
Short
by KQMarkets
Bitcoin storming highs, ECB warns, & Fed preparesThe BTC cryptocurrency rate for the first time since May 2018 exceeded its highest level. The information Facebook Inc. has signed up more than a dozen companies including Visa Inc., Mastercard Inc., PayPal Holdings Inc., and Uber Technologies Inc. to back the new cryptocurrency that the social-media giant plans to unveil next week and launch next year. We consider the cryptocurrency market reaction as inadequate and irrelevant to the importance of the event. Well, the news looks impressive, at first glance.: Visa Inc., Mastercard Inc., PayPal Holdings Inc., and Uber Technologies Inc. invested in cryptocurrency. It would seem that it takes CTC market to a new level. But in fact, it does not. The amount of investment is about $ 10 million from each of the companies. Once again, not billions, but millions (!). On the scale of Visa or Mastercard, this is not even a mathematical error. That is, no revolution has taken place, and the current growth is making such a big deal out of everything. So we do not recommend to take the growth of cryptocurrency at face value. There is the trading proverb: “buy rumours, sell facts.” our advice is acting in accordance with it. So the growth of Bitcoin is a great opportunity for its sales, nothing more. Meanwhile, The ECB confused euro buyers, saying that the Central Bank is ready to take action at any time. It is about both reducing interest rates and returning to quantitative easing in the Eurozone if it needed to support the economy. For the euro, this is so-so news, but again - these are just words. No actual action has been taken yet. But in the United States, these actions could be committed on Wednesday, when the decision of the Federal Open Market Committee will be announced. So far, the markets are on the side of the unchanged rate, but there is a probability of decline, besides, comments are possible with instructions in favor of a rate reduction in July. But we will write more about it and what to do with the dollar tomorrow, that is, on the eve of the announcement of the Fed's verdict. Our trading preferences for today: we will look for points for selling the US dollar primarily against the Japanese yen, as well as the euro and the pound, sell oil and the Russian ruble, and also buy gold.
COINBASE:ETHUSDShort
by Trade24Fx
EURUSD: Break Below 618, Approaching Inside Bar Demand ZoneEURUSD fell as the 618 level failed to hold the price after ECB Draghi signals for more rate cut. The price is approaching the demand zone created with an inside bar breakout that sent the price soaring and break above a 3-month falling channel. What's more important now is how will the Fed react during FOMC as the Fed has already signalled for a probable rate cut earlier. Look for buy opportunity as the price approaches 1.1160.
Long
by AlgoVenture
Mexican peso holiday & central banks are preparing for the worstThe week started quite well for the financial markets and with a huge relief for Mexico in particular. The point is that Trump decided not to impose 5% tariff on Mexican goods. The Mexican peso showed maximum growth over the past year. The Canadian dollar is below 1.33. Therefore a sharp decline in gold and other safe-haven assets against this background can be considered logical and logical. However, we would not advise relaxing. In fact, this is just one of the episodes. But in general, the picture continues to be rather precarious. According to analysts at Morgan Stanley, heightened market optimism is a mistake of investors. Global economic data is likely to begin to deteriorate. Accordingly, Morgan Stanley recommends selling USDJPY with a target of 105. We will continue to look for points to buy gold and Japanese yen on the intraday basis. About the Japanese yen. Yesterday, the head of the Bank of Japan, Haruhiko Kuroda, contributed a lot to yen sales in the foreign exchange market. He said that the Central Bank is ready to expand the list of monetary incentives, if it is necessary. Panicking and selling off the yen is not worth it yet. Well, the Bank of Japan is satisfied with the content of the monetary policy and the general state of the country's economy. Nevertheless, the general trend in the behavior of the leading central banks is pretty clear: all as one declare their readiness to act in response to trade war escalation. Recall, earlier "pigeon" comments were seen by the Fed and the ECB. And the Reserve Bank of Australia, so generally, lowered the rate last week. We would like to note rather weak data from the UK in particular GDP dropped by 0.4% m / m, in April ( the analysts had been expected a declining by 0.1% m / m).In addition, industrial production collapsed by by -2.7% m / m (experts predicted a decline of -1.0% m / m). It is not surprising that the pound was under downward pressure yesterday. Today we are waiting for data on the UK labor market, which might finish the pound. Well, we will see. Our trading preferences for today are as follows: we will continue to look for points for selling the US dollar against the Japanese yen, as well as the euro, oil sales and the Russian ruble, as well as buying gold.
Short
by Trade24Fx