Get started

Ecb

Euro stabilizes, ECB starts talking rate cutsThe euro is steady on Friday, after sustaining sharp losses a day earlier due to the US inflation report. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0893, up 0.09%. The European Central Bank maintained the deposit rate at 4.0% for a fourth straight time at last week’s meeting. It looks like rates have peaked but the ECB has been reluctant to signal that it is contemplating cutting rates, although the markets have priced in a first rate cut in the summer. The ECB remains concerned about lowering rates too early and then having to zigzag on policy and raise rates if inflation starts to rise. The battle to bring eurozone inflation down to the 2% target is going well but remains unfinished, with headline inflation at 2.6% and core inflation at 3.1%. For months, ECB policy makers have been stating that there is no rush to lower rates and warned that inflation remains a key concern. However, the winds appear to be shifting, as two ECB Governing Council members openly called for rate cuts this week. Yammos Stournaras, head of Greece’s central bank, said that “we need to start cutting rates soon” and urged two cuts before the summer break and four during the year. Stournaras added that his stance was in line with market expectations. Olli Rehn, Governor of the Bank of Finland, said earlier on Friday that if inflation continued to drop sustainably towards the 2% target, then the ECB could slowly lower loosen policy “close to the summer”. These comments from two senior ECB officials are a marked departure from the message the ECB has been sending and we can expect other senior officials to reiterate this dovish stance. This will likely put pressure on the euro, as lower interest rates will make the euro less attractive to investors. EUR/USD is putting pressure on resistance on 1.0907. Above, there is resistance at 1.0932 1.0858 and 1.0833 are providing support
by OANDA
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of March 8, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: In this week's trading, the Eurodollar saw a remarkable surge, breaking through our Mean Resistance levels of 1.085 and 1.090. The currency marched forward with significant momentum, leaving behind the previous trading range. However, based on the recent price trend and market analysis, we anticipate the Eurodollar will retrace its steps and move lower toward our projected Mean Support level of 1.087. This could trigger further selling pressure, leading to a decline to the Mean Support level of 1.080. Despite this, there is a possibility of the Eurodollar reaching the Inner Currency Dip of 1.100 before potentially resuming a bearish trend.
by TradeSelecter
Euro in holding pattern ahead of ECB decisionThe euro is barely making a peep on Thursday, ahead of the European Central Bank’s decision later in the day. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0894, down 0.04%. The ECB is expected to follow the Federal Reserve’s pause and hold the deposit rate at 4.0% for a fourth straight time. Have ECB rates peaked? The answer seems yes, but ECB policy makers are unlikely to confirm that tightening is over, as concerns remain that inflation is not yet beaten. CPI is down to 2.6%, but core CPI is at 3.1% and service inflation is running around 4%. Inflation is on a downtrend, but the battle to bring down inflation to the ECB’s 2% target is not over. In what sounds like a Jerome Powell sound bite, ECB members have been saying that there is no rush to lower rates. The markets have priced in 90 points in cuts for 2024, with a first cut expected in June. The ECB will likely hold rates again today, which means that investors will be focused on the central bank’s economic outlook. The ECB is expected to revise lower its inflation forecast and ECB President Lagarde will likely address the inflation outlook in her press conference. Anyone looking for some insights about rate policy from Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s testimony on Capitol Hill on Wednesday was no doubt disappointed. Powell essentially doubled-down on a script we’ve heard before, which is that the Fed is planning to cut interest rates this year but please don’t hold your breath, as inflation is not where it needs to be and the Fed will remain cautious. Powell did not give any hints about the timing of a rate cut except to say that the timing was not yet right. Powell said that the Fed would carefully monitor data and the economic outlook before making any moves and that the Fed had to first gain “greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent”. Powell signaled that rates have likely peaked, saying that the Fed’s “policy rate is likely at its peak for this tightening cycle”. This means that the Fed’s rate path will probably remain in a holding pattern of “higher for longer” until the Fed sees clear evidence that inflation has been subdued. The markets have priced in three rate cuts this year, with June the likely date for the initial cut. EUR/USD is testing resistance at 1.0905. Above, there is resistance at 1.0944 1.0872 and 1.0833 are providing support
by OANDA
Watchout for the ECB tonightMarch 7th DXY: Stay below 103.40, to show downside to 103 support. Could bounce from support level NZDUSD: Sell 0.6155 SL 20 TP 80 (Hesitation at 0.6110) AUDUSD: Wait and see reaction at 0.6610. Breakout, Buy 0.6625 SL 20 TP 80 Rejection, Sell 0.66 SL 25 TP 70 USDJPY: Looking for reaction at 147.70, breaks support, Sell 147.60 SL 30 TP 90 GBPUSD: Sell 1.2760 SL 25 TP 60 (test and reject of resistance) EURUSD: Sell 1.0870 SL 20 TP 75 (ECB Rates & Press Conference) USDCHF: Buy 0.8825 SL 20 TP 60 USDCAD: Sell 1.3490 SL 20 TP 40 Gold: Could retrace down to 2126, but consider bullish trend.
TVC:DXY
by JinDao_Tai
EUR/USD Analysis: Key Zones and Entry Points Traders, Let's analyze EUR/USD across various time frames: Weekly Chart: We identify three distinct zones, with the nearest around 1.09. Daily Chart: The closest upper chart rests at 1.08838, while the nearest lower one is at 1.07994. 1-Hour Chart: Our initial entry aligns with the daily pivot and a crucial Murray level. Additionally, we anticipate: A potential break of the bearish trend line, signaling further bullish momentum towards the next level. Keep a close watch on the ECB rate decision on Thursday, March 7th, as it could significantly impact market sentiment. Our suggested entry zones for long positions are clearly marked on the chart, approximately around 1.0830 and 1.0800. Remain vigilant and trade wisely. Best regards,
Long
by AliSignals
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of March 1, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: In this week's trading, the Eurodollar lacked significant price movement, revolving around the Mean Resistance level of 1.085. This means that the currency has been experiencing a period of consolidation with no clear direction. However, based on recent price trends, we expect the Eurodollar to move towards our Mean Support level of 1.077. This may trigger further downward movement, leading to an additional decline. If the downward movement continues, the Eurodollar could reach the Inner Currency Dip at 1.065, which is the primary target. The Inner Currency Dip 1.065 is where the currency is expected to have the most significant support, and a reversal in trend can often occur. However, this decline will happen gradually, with Mean Support levels at 1.070 and 1.067 as intermediate upside price effects. It's important to note that various factors, such as economic data releases, political developments, and global events, can influence the Eurodollar's movement.
by TradeSelecter
EUR/USD dips as German inflation declinesThe euro is in negative territory on Thursday. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0800, down 0.35%. Germany’s inflation rate dropped to 2.5% y/y in February, down from 2.9% in January and lower than the market estimate of 2.6%. This was the lowest level since June 2021, as inflation continues to move closer to the European Central Bank’s target of 2%. Food and energy prices were the main drivers of the decline, while services inflation was unchanged at 3.4%. Monthly, inflation rose 0.4%, up from 0.2% in February and shy of the market estimate of 0.5%. Core CPI remained steady at 3.4%, its lowest level since July 2022. The eurozone releases February on Friday, which is also expected to decline. Headline CPI is expected to ease to 2.5%, down from 2.8% in January. Core CPI is projected to decline to 2.9%, compared to 3.3% in January. If the market estimates are on target, the drop in inflation will put pressure on the ECB to consider lowering interest rates as inflation gets closer to the ECB’s 2% target. ECB policy makers have been extremely cautious about easing monetary policy too quickly due to fears of inflation resurging, but the recipe of high interest rates and a weak eurozone economy could lead to a recession. In the US, market pricing for Fed rate cuts has been slashed and is currently in line with the Fed projection of three rate cuts this year. In December, the markets priced in as many as six rate cuts but a surprisingly robust US economy and a Fed pushback against rate expectations has pushed a March rate cut off the table, with June or September the likely dates of an initial rate cut. EUR/USD is testing support at 1.0823 . Below, there is support at 1.0760 There is resistance at 1.0885 and 1.0948
by OANDA
EURUSD 25/2/24EU is doing also the exact same thing as GU in which we have run higher into our supply as we called for our very first higher timeframe markup a few weeks back, following on from this idea we have also built liquid as we thought we would during our pullback stage for price, iam now looking for it to shift bearish within our 5min swing range as we are currently still sitting in a bullish range. iam looking into a long from market open ultimately leading us into a shift for major order flow into a sell move to sweep our liquid from the lows this in turn will then give us good reason to look for longs out of the lows and back into the highs! track what price gives you and always trade safe!
by rosshayes
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Feb 23, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: the current week's trading, the Eurodollar has demonstrated remarkable resilience and a keen ability to withstand significant pressure. After initially facing a considerable challenge against our Mean Resistance level at 1.084, the currency has managed to push past it briefly, indicating a bullish trend. However, the bullish run has been short-lived, as the Eurodollar has retreated to its original position, pointing to a potential bearish trend. Based on recent price action, we anticipate the currency to move towards our Mean Support level at 1.077, which could trigger a further downward slide. If this downward slide occurs, the currency could reach the Inner Currency Dip at 1.065, which will be the primary target. However, this decline may happen gradually, with Mean Support levels at 1.070 and 1.067 acting as intermediate targets. Overall, the data suggests that the Eurodollar may experience a bearish trend shortly, and traders should consider this while making their investment decisions.
by TradeSelecter
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Feb 16, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: The Eurodollar experienced a decline during this week's trading session. It crossed our Mean Support level of 1.074 and Inner Currency level of 0.075 before quickly bouncing back to the Mean Resistance level of 1.079. Currently, the currency is in a primary downward trend and is expected to continue until it reaches the Inner Currency Dip of 1.065 via Mean Sup 1.071. However, an intermediate price trading at Mean Res 1.079 may cause a potential extension to 1.084.
by TradeSelecter
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Feb 9, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: The Eurodollar traded lower in this week's trading session by completing our Inner Currency Dip of 1.075 and settling in a tight range, hovering above our Mean Sup 1.074 and under Mean Res 1.079. The Eurodollar is in a primary downward trend, which will continue until the support level marked at Mean Support of 1.074 and the Inner Currency Dip of 1.075 is broken. Once these levels are eliminated, the currency will continue to decline toward the next Inner Currency Dip of 1.065. However, an intermediate upward movement is possible, in which case the currency might retest the Mean Support level of 1.084.
by TradeSelecter
EUR/USD eyes German inflationEUR/USD is slightly lower on Wednesday. In the North American session, the euro is trading at 1.0751, down 0.20%. Germany's CPI is expected at 0.2% m/m on Friday, which would confirm the initial estimate from two weeks earlier. On an annualized basis, the initial estimate for CPI came in at 2.9% in January, down sharply from 3.7% in December. A deceleration in energy and food costs was the driver of the downturn in January, which was the lowest inflation rate since June 2021. Core inflation has also been falling, with the initial estimate showing a drop to 3.4%, its lowest rate since June 2022. The drop in German inflation is not all that surprising, as the eurozone's largest economy has been struggling. Germany's manufacturing sector has been in prolonged decline and the services sector is sputtering, with five declines in the past six months. The economy declined in the fourth quarter and another contraction in Q1 would mean that Germany will have entered a technical recession. The eurozone is also grappling with a weak economy, with the latest evidence earlier this week as retail sales slipped 1.1% m/m in December. Despite weak economic conditions in the eurozone and Germany, the European Central Bank has been hesitant to cut interest rates. ECB members have expressed concern that inflation could make a comeback if the ECB were to cut rates too early. That could force the ECB to raise rates again and the optics of such a zig-zag would be disastrous. For now, the ECB remains hawkish on rate policy and is content to continue holding rates until inflation falls closer to the 2% target. Since last week's Fed meeting, a host of Fed members have delivered the message that inflation is heading in the right direction but the Fed plans to be patient and is in no rush to lower rates. The markets have taken note of the Fed's pushback and have pared expectations of a rate cut in March to 18%, down from over 70% in January, according to the CME's Fed Watch tool. EUR/USD tested support at 1.0746 earlier. Below, there is support at 1.0704 There is resistance at 1.0822 and 1.0864
by OANDA
EURGBP: Technicals and ECB Policy ShiftIn today's trading session, our focus is on EURGBP, where we are eyeing a selling opportunity around the 0.85800 zone. Technically, EURGBP is trading in a downtrend and currently navigating a correction phase towards the 0.85800 support and resistance area. Now, delving into the fundamental layer, we are inclined towards a bearish stance on the Euro due to potential rate cuts from the European Central Bank (ECB) in April. The recent policy stance of the ECB indicates a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy stance. President Lagarde's avoidance of calendar guidance in favor of data dependence further underscores this shift. The ECB's acknowledgment that data have been trending positively, albeit faster than expected, suggests a willingness to act preemptively if economic conditions warrant it. The latest PMI data, while showing signs of improvement in the manufacturing sector, also hint at supply disruptions affecting delivery times, which could temper the overall economic recovery. Additionally, disappointing forward-looking indicators like the fo climate index and subdued inflation expectations from ECB surveys contribute to a cautious outlook on the Euro's prospects. As such, the constraints on the ECB are easing, paving the way for potential monetary policy adjustments in the coming months, including the possibility of rate cuts. This shift in policy stance and the accompanying real rate differentials could weigh on the Euro against other currencies, including the British Pound. In light of these factors, maintaining a bearish outlook on the Euro seems prudent, with EURGBP positioned for potential downside movement in the near term
Short
by JoeChampion
1
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Jan 26, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: The Eurodollar gyrated between our Mean Res 1.090 and Mean Sup 1.084 throughout this week's trading. The continuous primary downward designation is the established support level marked at 1.076 and the Inner Currency Dip level of 1.075 with a strong possibility of a dead-cat rebound to reversed (Resistance) Mean Sup 1.084. On the upside, the currency might retest a Mean Sup 1.090 before continuing its downward trend.
by TradeSelecter
⚡️Strifor || GOLD-25/01/2024Preferred direction: SELL Comment: Gold behaves quite surprisingly. After rather optimistic statistics from the US this week, the metal sank under pressure from the US dollar, while other instruments reacted much more modestly. Our first goal is almost achieved. However, a fall below 1980 is being considered, namely to 1960 . The growth potential of the US dollar has not even begun to exhaust itself, so we can expect a considerable fall in gold. Today is one of our busiest days, with many important statistics expected, especially from the USA . Therefore, increased volatility today is completely normal. Thank you for like and share your views!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Viktor_strifor_analyst
1
⚡️Strifor || GBPUSD-25/01/2024Preferred direction: SELL Comment: The British currency completely duplicates the situation with the EURUSD currency pair. Here, we also continue to stick to sales. The main target according to our previous trading ideas is the level of 1.25000 . Technically, and according to volume analysis, we have both an entry point and a resource in the form of bid-accumulations, due to which we assume a downward impulse will be generated. On Thursday, that is, today a large number of economic events from the EU and the USA are expected. . Therefore, most likely today will be decisive and the instrument will finally shoot down, as we expect. Thank you for like and share your views!
Short
by Viktor_strifor_analyst
1
⚡️Strifor || EURUSD-25/01/2024Preferred direction: SELL Comment: The situation with the euro has not changed since our last review. Protracted accumulation continues at the level of 1.09000 . However, we continue to follow sell-priority. According to our later analysis (scenario #1 and #2) we expect a fall to 1.08000 . Also, in the longer term, we can consider a fall to 1.07000. On Thursday, that is, today a large number of economic events from the EU and the USA are expected. Therefore, most likely today will be decisive and the instrument will finally shoot down, as we expect. Thank you for like and share your views!
Short
by Viktor_strifor_analyst
1
EURAUD | It's time to evaluate a Bearish MomentumThe H4 analysis of the Euro/Australian Dollar exchange rate points to a negative trend, with the price currently undergoing a Fibonacci retracement at the 0.62-0.79 level. I anticipate a potential bearish momentum for the pair with a potential target of 1.6270, representing an area of liquidity that has yet to be explored. However, it is crucial for the price to execute a Break Out of Structure (BOS) on a 15-minute time frame during the London or New York sessions. We hope to observe a clear and significant change in market structure during these sessions; otherwise, the idea is not to be considered viable. We always await the necessary operational confirmations and adhere to an optimal risk management approach. Best regards, as always, from Nicola, and I wish everyone a good day of trading.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
EURUSD is ready for the ECB with target 1.07!The EUR/USD exchange rate is advancing significantly after two consecutive days of retracement, although a convincing break of the 1.0900 barrier remains elusive at the moment. The prospects for the pair are expected to turn bearish if it sustains a convincing breach of the crucial 200-day moving average, currently at 1.0844. On the upside, the weekly level of 1.0998 (January 11) must be surpassed to open the door to a possible visit to the December high of 1.1139 (December 28). Based on the 4-hour chart, the pair seems to have returned to a consolidation phase. The unexpected and intense dollar sell-off has allowed the EUR/USD to shake off some of its recent weakness and refocus on the upside, surpassing the 1.0900 threshold to print new multi-day highs. The USD Index (DXY) has succumbed to the prevailing risk-friendly environment and dropped below the 103.00 region despite the rise in U.S. yields along the curve, while speculations continued to indicate decreasing bets on a Fed rate cut in March, favoring a rate reduction in May instead. Also contributing to the renewed buying interest in the pair, advanced PMI readings in Germany and the Eurozone came in on the strong side for January, highlighting a revival of economic activity in the region and suggesting the possibility of a soft landing for the regional economy. With the upcoming ECB event in mind, it is important to emphasize that market participants have already priced in about 120 basis points of rate cuts for the current year. However, there is a growing debate among market participants and decision-makers at the ECB regarding when the central bank will decide to implement a policy rate reduction for the region. Additionally, President Lagarde has hinted at the possibility of a potential move during the summer. Tomorrow will be a truly interesting day, with no cuts expected, and the euro-dollar heading towards 1.07 as indicated by the chart. Greetings and happy trading to everyone from Nicola.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
3
EURUSD Pullback To Previous Support BreakHi Traders! EURUSD has found support and is targeting the previous breakout level for a re-test ahead of ECB President Lagarde's speech. Here are the details: The market has found strong support at the 1.08555 level, and the price action looks bullish; the lows and highs are starting to get higher, and the price is pulling back near the previous support break at 1.09102, which is now resistance. Additionally, the market is pulling closer to the 20 EMA. The plan here is to enter near the support level around 1.80555 and target exits near 1.09102. Preferred Direction: Buy Technical Indicators: 20 EMA Resistance: 1.09102 Support: 1.08555 Please make sure to click on the like/boost button 🚀 as your support greatly helps. Trade safely and responsibly. BluetonaFX
Long
by BluetonaFX
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Jan 12, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: The Eurodollar has been trading aimlessly this week, fluctuating below the designated Mean Resistance of 1.098. The current target is the Mean Support of 1.090, with a potential decline towards the established Mean Support level of 1.075. On the upside, the Eurodollar may attempt to surpass the Mean Resistance level of 1.098 and reach the Mean Resistance of 1.104 before showing any significant decline.
by TradeSelecter
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Jan 5, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: The Eurodollar has experienced significant price fluctuations throughout this week's trading session. It has fallen below our Mean Support level of 1.100, indicating a potential decline towards the established Mean Support of 1.075. It is highly probable that the Eurodollar will retest the Mean Resistance level of 1.098. The current violent movement of the Eurodollar around our crucial Mean Support of 1.090 and Mean Resistance of 1.098 is a clear indication of the same.
by TradeSelecter