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EURUSD 25/2/24EU is doing also the exact same thing as GU in which we have run higher into our supply as we called for our very first higher timeframe markup a few weeks back, following on from this idea we have also built liquid as we thought we would during our pullback stage for price, iam now looking for it to shift bearish within our 5min swing range as we are currently still sitting in a bullish range. iam looking into a long from market open ultimately leading us into a shift for major order flow into a sell move to sweep our liquid from the lows this in turn will then give us good reason to look for longs out of the lows and back into the highs! track what price gives you and always trade safe!
by PipSurfingSociety
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Feb 23, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: the current week's trading, the Eurodollar has demonstrated remarkable resilience and a keen ability to withstand significant pressure. After initially facing a considerable challenge against our Mean Resistance level at 1.084, the currency has managed to push past it briefly, indicating a bullish trend. However, the bullish run has been short-lived, as the Eurodollar has retreated to its original position, pointing to a potential bearish trend. Based on recent price action, we anticipate the currency to move towards our Mean Support level at 1.077, which could trigger a further downward slide. If this downward slide occurs, the currency could reach the Inner Currency Dip at 1.065, which will be the primary target. However, this decline may happen gradually, with Mean Support levels at 1.070 and 1.067 acting as intermediate targets. Overall, the data suggests that the Eurodollar may experience a bearish trend shortly, and traders should consider this while making their investment decisions.
by TradeSelecter
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Feb 16, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: The Eurodollar experienced a decline during this week's trading session. It crossed our Mean Support level of 1.074 and Inner Currency level of 0.075 before quickly bouncing back to the Mean Resistance level of 1.079. Currently, the currency is in a primary downward trend and is expected to continue until it reaches the Inner Currency Dip of 1.065 via Mean Sup 1.071. However, an intermediate price trading at Mean Res 1.079 may cause a potential extension to 1.084.
by TradeSelecter
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Feb 9, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: The Eurodollar traded lower in this week's trading session by completing our Inner Currency Dip of 1.075 and settling in a tight range, hovering above our Mean Sup 1.074 and under Mean Res 1.079. The Eurodollar is in a primary downward trend, which will continue until the support level marked at Mean Support of 1.074 and the Inner Currency Dip of 1.075 is broken. Once these levels are eliminated, the currency will continue to decline toward the next Inner Currency Dip of 1.065. However, an intermediate upward movement is possible, in which case the currency might retest the Mean Support level of 1.084.
by TradeSelecter
EUR/USD eyes German inflationEUR/USD is slightly lower on Wednesday. In the North American session, the euro is trading at 1.0751, down 0.20%. Germany's CPI is expected at 0.2% m/m on Friday, which would confirm the initial estimate from two weeks earlier. On an annualized basis, the initial estimate for CPI came in at 2.9% in January, down sharply from 3.7% in December. A deceleration in energy and food costs was the driver of the downturn in January, which was the lowest inflation rate since June 2021. Core inflation has also been falling, with the initial estimate showing a drop to 3.4%, its lowest rate since June 2022. The drop in German inflation is not all that surprising, as the eurozone's largest economy has been struggling. Germany's manufacturing sector has been in prolonged decline and the services sector is sputtering, with five declines in the past six months. The economy declined in the fourth quarter and another contraction in Q1 would mean that Germany will have entered a technical recession. The eurozone is also grappling with a weak economy, with the latest evidence earlier this week as retail sales slipped 1.1% m/m in December. Despite weak economic conditions in the eurozone and Germany, the European Central Bank has been hesitant to cut interest rates. ECB members have expressed concern that inflation could make a comeback if the ECB were to cut rates too early. That could force the ECB to raise rates again and the optics of such a zig-zag would be disastrous. For now, the ECB remains hawkish on rate policy and is content to continue holding rates until inflation falls closer to the 2% target. Since last week's Fed meeting, a host of Fed members have delivered the message that inflation is heading in the right direction but the Fed plans to be patient and is in no rush to lower rates. The markets have taken note of the Fed's pushback and have pared expectations of a rate cut in March to 18%, down from over 70% in January, according to the CME's Fed Watch tool. EUR/USD tested support at 1.0746 earlier. Below, there is support at 1.0704 There is resistance at 1.0822 and 1.0864
by OANDA
EURGBP: Technicals and ECB Policy ShiftIn today's trading session, our focus is on EURGBP, where we are eyeing a selling opportunity around the 0.85800 zone. Technically, EURGBP is trading in a downtrend and currently navigating a correction phase towards the 0.85800 support and resistance area. Now, delving into the fundamental layer, we are inclined towards a bearish stance on the Euro due to potential rate cuts from the European Central Bank (ECB) in April. The recent policy stance of the ECB indicates a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy stance. President Lagarde's avoidance of calendar guidance in favor of data dependence further underscores this shift. The ECB's acknowledgment that data have been trending positively, albeit faster than expected, suggests a willingness to act preemptively if economic conditions warrant it. The latest PMI data, while showing signs of improvement in the manufacturing sector, also hint at supply disruptions affecting delivery times, which could temper the overall economic recovery. Additionally, disappointing forward-looking indicators like the fo climate index and subdued inflation expectations from ECB surveys contribute to a cautious outlook on the Euro's prospects. As such, the constraints on the ECB are easing, paving the way for potential monetary policy adjustments in the coming months, including the possibility of rate cuts. This shift in policy stance and the accompanying real rate differentials could weigh on the Euro against other currencies, including the British Pound. In light of these factors, maintaining a bearish outlook on the Euro seems prudent, with EURGBP positioned for potential downside movement in the near term
Short
by JoeChampion
1
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Jan 26, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: The Eurodollar gyrated between our Mean Res 1.090 and Mean Sup 1.084 throughout this week's trading. The continuous primary downward designation is the established support level marked at 1.076 and the Inner Currency Dip level of 1.075 with a strong possibility of a dead-cat rebound to reversed (Resistance) Mean Sup 1.084. On the upside, the currency might retest a Mean Sup 1.090 before continuing its downward trend.
by TradeSelecter
⚡️Strifor || GOLD-25/01/2024Preferred direction: SELL Comment: Gold behaves quite surprisingly. After rather optimistic statistics from the US this week, the metal sank under pressure from the US dollar, while other instruments reacted much more modestly. Our first goal is almost achieved. However, a fall below 1980 is being considered, namely to 1960 . The growth potential of the US dollar has not even begun to exhaust itself, so we can expect a considerable fall in gold. Today is one of our busiest days, with many important statistics expected, especially from the USA . Therefore, increased volatility today is completely normal. Thank you for like and share your views!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Strifor
1
⚡️Strifor || GBPUSD-25/01/2024Preferred direction: SELL Comment: The British currency completely duplicates the situation with the EURUSD currency pair. Here, we also continue to stick to sales. The main target according to our previous trading ideas is the level of 1.25000 . Technically, and according to volume analysis, we have both an entry point and a resource in the form of bid-accumulations, due to which we assume a downward impulse will be generated. On Thursday, that is, today a large number of economic events from the EU and the USA are expected. . Therefore, most likely today will be decisive and the instrument will finally shoot down, as we expect. Thank you for like and share your views!
Short
by Strifor
1
⚡️Strifor || EURUSD-25/01/2024Preferred direction: SELL Comment: The situation with the euro has not changed since our last review. Protracted accumulation continues at the level of 1.09000 . However, we continue to follow sell-priority. According to our later analysis (scenario #1 and #2) we expect a fall to 1.08000 . Also, in the longer term, we can consider a fall to 1.07000. On Thursday, that is, today a large number of economic events from the EU and the USA are expected. Therefore, most likely today will be decisive and the instrument will finally shoot down, as we expect. Thank you for like and share your views!
Short
by Strifor
1
EURAUD | It's time to evaluate a Bearish MomentumThe H4 analysis of the Euro/Australian Dollar exchange rate points to a negative trend, with the price currently undergoing a Fibonacci retracement at the 0.62-0.79 level. I anticipate a potential bearish momentum for the pair with a potential target of 1.6270, representing an area of liquidity that has yet to be explored. However, it is crucial for the price to execute a Break Out of Structure (BOS) on a 15-minute time frame during the London or New York sessions. We hope to observe a clear and significant change in market structure during these sessions; otherwise, the idea is not to be considered viable. We always await the necessary operational confirmations and adhere to an optimal risk management approach. Best regards, as always, from Nicola, and I wish everyone a good day of trading.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
EURUSD is ready for the ECB with target 1.07!The EUR/USD exchange rate is advancing significantly after two consecutive days of retracement, although a convincing break of the 1.0900 barrier remains elusive at the moment. The prospects for the pair are expected to turn bearish if it sustains a convincing breach of the crucial 200-day moving average, currently at 1.0844. On the upside, the weekly level of 1.0998 (January 11) must be surpassed to open the door to a possible visit to the December high of 1.1139 (December 28). Based on the 4-hour chart, the pair seems to have returned to a consolidation phase. The unexpected and intense dollar sell-off has allowed the EUR/USD to shake off some of its recent weakness and refocus on the upside, surpassing the 1.0900 threshold to print new multi-day highs. The USD Index (DXY) has succumbed to the prevailing risk-friendly environment and dropped below the 103.00 region despite the rise in U.S. yields along the curve, while speculations continued to indicate decreasing bets on a Fed rate cut in March, favoring a rate reduction in May instead. Also contributing to the renewed buying interest in the pair, advanced PMI readings in Germany and the Eurozone came in on the strong side for January, highlighting a revival of economic activity in the region and suggesting the possibility of a soft landing for the regional economy. With the upcoming ECB event in mind, it is important to emphasize that market participants have already priced in about 120 basis points of rate cuts for the current year. However, there is a growing debate among market participants and decision-makers at the ECB regarding when the central bank will decide to implement a policy rate reduction for the region. Additionally, President Lagarde has hinted at the possibility of a potential move during the summer. Tomorrow will be a truly interesting day, with no cuts expected, and the euro-dollar heading towards 1.07 as indicated by the chart. Greetings and happy trading to everyone from Nicola.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
3
EURUSD Pullback To Previous Support BreakHi Traders! EURUSD has found support and is targeting the previous breakout level for a re-test ahead of ECB President Lagarde's speech. Here are the details: The market has found strong support at the 1.08555 level, and the price action looks bullish; the lows and highs are starting to get higher, and the price is pulling back near the previous support break at 1.09102, which is now resistance. Additionally, the market is pulling closer to the 20 EMA. The plan here is to enter near the support level around 1.80555 and target exits near 1.09102. Preferred Direction: Buy Technical Indicators: 20 EMA Resistance: 1.09102 Support: 1.08555 Please make sure to click on the like/boost button 🚀 as your support greatly helps. Trade safely and responsibly. BluetonaFX
Long
by BluetonaFX
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Jan 12, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: The Eurodollar has been trading aimlessly this week, fluctuating below the designated Mean Resistance of 1.098. The current target is the Mean Support of 1.090, with a potential decline towards the established Mean Support level of 1.075. On the upside, the Eurodollar may attempt to surpass the Mean Resistance level of 1.098 and reach the Mean Resistance of 1.104 before showing any significant decline.
by TradeSelecter
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Jan 5, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: The Eurodollar has experienced significant price fluctuations throughout this week's trading session. It has fallen below our Mean Support level of 1.100, indicating a potential decline towards the established Mean Support of 1.075. It is highly probable that the Eurodollar will retest the Mean Resistance level of 1.098. The current violent movement of the Eurodollar around our crucial Mean Support of 1.090 and Mean Resistance of 1.098 is a clear indication of the same.
by TradeSelecter
The Euro will weaken against the GBPSummary The European Central Bank (ECB) will likely cut rates before The Bank of England (BOE), meaning potential downside on EURGBP. The Details European interest rate hikes have been successful - Euro Area inflation is around 2%. Mission accomplished. Easing rates is the next step after holding the current rate for a while. Cutting rates will weaken the Euro. European economic figures are poor, which adds conviction to rate cuts in the near future. On the other hand, the BOE will likely keep higher rates for longer. There may even be a final rate hike by the BOE. Inflation is still above 3%. Cutting rates anytime soon could be seen as irresponsible and is not likely. I expect EURGBP to reach weekly range support at 0.8250 in 2024. Price may even break the range support area. Things to Consider If the UK also signals recession, pressure to cut rates will increase. However, inflation should be the primary influence on rate decisions. EURGBP could move higher before it starts declining.
Short
by Samuel_Morton_Trader
FED vs ECB - Soft Landing As of today Thursday, December 14, 2023- ECB ( European Central Bank ) at 14:00 PM ( Budapest Time GMT+1 ) will disclouse their interest rate decision in the following categories. 11:00 EUR EU Leaders Summit 14:15 EUR Deposit Facility Rate (Dec) 14:15 EUR ECB Marginal Lending Facility 14:15 EUR ECB Monetary Policy Statement 14:15 EUR ECB Interest Rate Decision (Dec) Over the last 2Mto 1M , depending on the data frequency, such as weekly or montly we have observed that, generally speaking, inflation is under control in the Eurozone. Therefore, any further rate hikes from the ECB are absolutely unnecessary and would cause serious issues in the Italian and German economies. Even though a rate hike would cause an immediate surge in EUR/USD, which is certainly in my interest since I hold a long position, in the case of a rate hike, I would close it nearly immediately. I expect that today the ECB will keep interest rates unchanged to allow time for the effects of their previous measures to fully transmit into the economy
Long
by ElGatoTrade
1
Euro jumps to 5-month highThe euro has posted strong gains on Wednesday. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1121, up 0.72%. The US dollar is under pressure this week as we're seeing a risk-on mood in global markets. The week between Christmas and New Year's is normally quiet, with a very light data calendar. However, investors are anticipating the Federal Reserve to cut rates early next year and this sentiment has sent equity markets higher while weighing on the US dollar. The euro is powering higher, with gains of 2.1% in December and 2.9% in November against the retreating US dollar. Federal Chair Powell surprised the markets when he pencilled in three rate cuts for next year. Investors had braced themselves for Powell to push back against rate cut expectations, a script he has followed for months. This time, however, Powell jumped on the bandwagon although Fed members have since urged the markets to tamper their expectations of up to six rate cuts next year. The markets have priced in an initial rate cut in March, with over 150 basis points in cuts for all of 2024 according to the CME's FedWatch tool. There is a similar disconnect between the markets and the European Central Bank. The markets are looking at six rate cuts next year, perhaps as early as March, while the ECB has tried to dampen these expectations. ECB President Lagarde stated last week that members had not discussed a rate cut at the December meeting, at which the central bank held the cash rate at 4.0% for a second straight time. I expect that markets in both the US and Europe will remain much more bullish about rate cuts than the central banks. It's a light data calendar between Christmas and New Year's in the US. The Richmond Manufacturing Index decelerated to -11 today, down from -5 in November and missing the market consensus of -6. On Thursday, unemployment claims are expected to drop to 205,000, down from 210,000 a week earlier. EUR/USD is testing resistance at 1.1072. Above, there is resistance at 1.1130 1.0982 and 1.0924 is providing support
by OANDA
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Dec 22, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook: The Eurodollar has shown significant price movements throughout this week's trading session by surpassing our previously achieved Inner Currency Rally level of 1.099 and its corresponding resistance at the same price point. The current price action suggests that the Eurodollar will likely continue to climb, with the target level set at Inner Currency Rally 1.109. However, it is essential to stay alert to the ever-changing dynamics of the Eurodollar market, as the price action may experience a drawdown.
by TradeSelecter
FX Price Action Ahead on Growing Rate DivergenceLast week was busy for major central banks. During a 60-hour window, rates were set for 60% of the global economy, from the US Fed, the ECB, to the BoE. Central banks’ announcements caused a frenzy in markets. The pivot to a dovish stance by the US Fed contrasted sharply with hawkishness from the ECB. This paper summarizes rate announcements and their market impact. It also dives into Yen dynamics as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) meets tomorrow. CAUTION FX TRADERS: GROWING RATE DIVERGENCE AHEAD Renewed divergence in monetary policies was evident from rate announcements by the major central banks. After more than a year of moving in tandem, central banks’ stances are shifting. The Fed is signaling rate cuts sooner. Meanwhile, ECB and BoE insist that rates need to stay higher for longer to fight sticky inflation. As interest rates in the US remain elevated relative to other major economies, the Fed has ample room to slash sooner. Inflation in the EU has contracted at a rapid clip relative to the US. However, economists expect EU inflation to rebound in the near term with fading base-level effects. Inflation in the US is expected to average 2.4% in 2024 compared to 2.7% in the EU and 3.75% in the UK, as per respective central banks. The US economy is strong with robust economic growth, resilient consumer spending, and solid PMI numbers. FED HAS PIVOTED TO DOVISHNESS The FOMC opted to keep rates steady with their statement pointing to the end of the rate hiking cycle. Most notable was the Fed’s updated economic projections & dot plot. It showed faster-declining inflation, slower GDP growth, and faster rate cuts. The Fed’s dot plot of rate expectations guided towards three 25 basis point (bps) cuts next year. Markets were expecting five rate cuts before the Fed announcement. Following the Fed meeting, markets now anticipate six rate cuts. BOE REMAINS HAWKISH The Bank of England opted to keep rates steady with a hawkish pause. The BoE statement indicates further rate hikes if inflationary pressures remain persistent. “The full effect of higher interest rates has yet to come through, posing ongoing challenges to households, businesses and governments," ~ BoE Market Policy Committee ECB JOINED THE BOE WITH A HAWKISH PAUSE ECB decided to keep rates steady with a hawkish pause. ECB President Christine Lagarde asserted that rate cuts were not being discussed yet and rates may even need to go higher to bring inflation under control. ECB noted that tighter financing conditions were leading to demand contraction, which weighed on pushing down inflation. Economic growth is expected to remain subdued. ECB estimates gradual ramp up in growth from 0.6% for 2023 to 0.8% for 2024, and to 1.5% for both 2025 and 2026. BOJ DECISION IS MOST UNCERTAIN WITH A THORNY JOB ON HAND The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is set to announce their rate decision on December 19th. It has maintained ultra-low interest rates all year while others hiked aggressively. Recent statements by BoJ Governor Ueda signal a pivot away from the ultra-low policy. "Managing monetary policy will become even more challenging from the end of the year and heading into next year." ~ Kazuo Ueda, Governor, Bank of Japan on 6/Dec Governor Ueda’s statements have led to market expectation of upcoming monetary tightening in Japan. JPY has strengthened 6% relative to the USD over the last month. Despite Ueda’s statements, BoJ pivot remains uncertain. Inflation in Japan is running hot and above US inflation. Moreover, wage growth and economic growth in Japan have been moderate despite high inflation creating stagflation risks. Consumer spending and wage growth remain muted despite record profits. Feeble Yen is boosting Japanese exporter profits. Nevertheless, the BoJ has been setting up a change in monetary policy. Earlier this year, it raised the cap on JGB yields and eventually changed the cap from a rigid limit to a loose reference. Some economists consider this a prelude to eventual scrapping of the YCC altogether. CENTRAL BANK DECISIONS HAVE CREATED DEEP RIPPLES ACROSS MARKETS Commodity markets reacted positively to the rate announcements. The Fed’s signal of upcoming easing opened the door for commodity demand to rise. Precious metals are likely to benefit from asset rotation out of US treasuries while Crude will benefit from higher economic activity from lower interest rates. Equities surged on Fed pivot. Small-caps and Mid-caps outperformed the Nasdaq-100 and S&P 500. Both SPX and NDX also extended gains. Bond yields fell sharply following the FOMC decision. Yields fell to their lowest level in four months. One-year bond yields performed the best while thirty-year performed the worst. LEVERAGED FUNDS ARE BULLISH EURO, STERLING, AND BEARISH YEN Asset managers and leveraged funds are net long on Euro FX futures. Asset managers and leveraged funds are net short on Yen and Pound futures but have reduced net short positioning over the past few weeks. HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP The Fed’s dovish stance plus the hawkishness of European central banks will result in dollar weakness relative to Euro and Sterling. Upside risks to the dollar persist with stronger economic data and inflation resurgence forcing the Fed to reassess its stance. To gain from the weakening of the dollar against the euro and sterling, investors can buy into CME Micro FX Euro and GBP futures. A long sterling provides higher upside than long euro given higher inflation in the UK. Policy uncertainty in Japan is unlikely to usher in a pivot in the short-term. The JPY is likely to weaken against the dollar despite DXY weakness. To harness gains from weakening Yen, investors can establish a long position in CME Micro JPY Futures. Hypothetical Trade 1 & 2: Long EUR and GBP Entry: 1.0960 Target: 1.1150 Stop Loss: 1.0860 Profit at Target: USD 238 (= 1.1500 - 1.0960 = 190 pips = 190 x 1.25) Loss at Stop: USD 125 (= 1.0860 – 1.0960 = -100 pips = -100 x 1.25) Reward-Risk: 1.9x Entry: 1.2720 Target: 1.3120 Stop Loss: 1.2490 Profit at Target: USD 250 (= 1.3120 - 1.2720 = 400 pips = 400 x 0.625) Loss at Stop: USD 144 (= 1.2490 – 1.2720 = -230 pips = 230 x 0.625) Reward-Risk: 1.75x Hypothetical Trade 2: Short JPY Entry: 139.57 Target: 146.28 Stop Loss: 137.97 Profit at Target: JPY 67,100 (= 146.28 - 139.57 = 671 pips = 671 x 100) Loss at Stop: JPY 16,000 (=137.97 – 139.57 = 160 pips = 160 x 100) Reward-Risk: 4.2x MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
CME_MINI:M6E1!
by mintdotfinance