Get started

Ecb

Euro dips on soft Services PMIsThe euro has snapped a four-day winning streak on Friday. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0949, down 0.38%. The euro has enjoyed a strong week, with gains of 1.77%. Eurozone Services PMI eased in December, indicating that the economy continues to struggle. The PMI fell from 48.7 to 48.1 and missed the consensus estimate of 49.0. This marked a fifth straight month of contraction in the services sector, with 50 separating contraction from expansion. Germany, the largest economy in the eurozone, also reported a decline, with the PMI falling to 48.4, down from 49.6 in November and short of the consensus estimate of 49.8. The European Central Bank held the benchmark rate at 4.0% for a second straight time on Thursday. This move was expected, but the central bank pushed back against market expectations for interest rate cuts next year, sending the euro soaring 1.09% against the US dollar after the announcement. ECB President Christine Lagarde reaffirmed that the Bank would continue its "higher for longer" stance, saying that the Bank was not about to let down its guard and lower rates. Lagarde sounded hawkish even though the ECB lowered its inflation forecast at the meeting. Inflation has fallen to 2.4% in the eurozone, within striking distance of the 2% target. Lagarde acknowledged that inflation was easing but said that domestic inflation was "not budging", largely due to wage growth. There is a deep disconnect between the markets and the ECB with regard to rate policy. ECB President Lagarde poured cold water on expectations for rate hikes, arguing that inflation had not been beaten. The markets are marching to a very different tune and have priced in at least in around six rate cuts in 2024 and are confident that Lagarde will have to change her stance, with inflation falling and the eurozone economy likely in recession. EUR/USD is testing support at 1.0957. Below, there is support at 1.0905 1.1044 and 1.1096 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
Post ECB AnalysisOvernight, the ECB remained cautious, stating that while the inflation path is lower than before, the ECB should not lower its guard. Keeping rates on hold at 4.50%, President Lagarde indicated that the ECB did not discuss rate cut scenarios. The EURUSD traded higher following the news, with price trading within the 1.10 resistance area. Technicals Price trades at 1.10 resistance & 61.8% fib retracement level and if price continues to trade higher, beyond this resistance, the next major resistance level is at 1.1270
Long
by JinDao_Tai
12
Euro climbs to two-week high as ECB meeting loomsThe euro has extended its gains in Thursday trading. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0925, up 0.45%. It has been a good week for the euro, which has climbed 1.5% against the US dollar. The European Central Bank meets later on Wednesday and is widely expected to hold rates at 4.0% for a second straight time. The markets will be focusing on the rate statement and ECB President Lagarde's post-meeting remarks. Lagarde has been hawkish, stressing the need to maintain rates in restrictive territory for a prolonged period - "higher for longer". The markets are more dovish and have priced in six rate cuts for 2024, with a first cut as early as the spring. The economic landscape in the eurozone could support the market's view. Inflation has fallen sharply and is at 2.4%, within striking distance of the Bank's 2% target. The economy has cooled due to high interest rates and a recession remains a possibility. Will Lagarde push back against market expectations of rate cuts? Or will she set a more dovish stance and avoid ruling out rate cuts? The tone of the rate statement and Lagarde's comments could have a strong effect on the movement of the euro today. The Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark rate at a target range of 5.25%- 5.50% for a third straight time. That was not a surprise but Fed Chair Powell provided plenty of drama as he pivoted from his usual hawkish rhetoric. There had been expectations that Powell would push back against growing speculation that the Fed would trim rates in 2024. Powell not only failed to push back, he signalled that the Fed expected to cut rates three times next year. Powell's dovish message sent equities flying higher and the US dollar tumbling. Just two weeks ago, Powell said it would be "premature" to speculate about the timing of rate cuts and that the door was still open to further hikes. There is still a deep disconnect between the markets and the Fed, as the markets have now priced in six rate cuts in 2024. There is resistance at 1.0964 and 1.1033 1.0862 and 1.0793 are providing support
by OANDA
6
Trading this week's fundamental events The market's attention will be fixed on the Federal Reserve's final policy meeting of 2023 scheduled for this Wednesday, with the expectation that the US will maintain interest rates at a 22-year high. Investors will have an opportunity to scrutinize the Fed's statement and Chair Jerome Powell's press conference for any indications of potential rate cuts in 2024 (or lack thereof). One day prior to the Feds decision, the US is also poised to unveil essential inflation data. Forecasts suggest a marginal uptick of 0.1% in November consumer prices. Turning attention to Europe, traders will focus on rate decisions from the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE), both occurring on Thursday. The BoE is predicted to maintain borrowing costs at a 15-year high while reiterating the necessity for elevated rates. Any commentary from the bank deviating from this outlook could potentially cause ripples in the market. Eurozone inflation dropped to 2.4% last month, down from over 10% a year earlier, following ten consecutive rate hikes. This decline brings the ECB's 2% inflation target into view and makes a further rate increase unlikely. Goldman Sachs has forecasted that the European Central Bank's meeting in April will mark the initiation of its first rate cut, followed by a 25 basis points cut at each subsequent meeting throughout the year.
by BlackBull_Markets
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Dec 8, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook: Last week's completion of our Inner Currency Rally of 1.099 continued to drop to strategic Mean Sup 1.084 and is on its way to a significant Mean Sup 1.067 and Inner Currency Dip 1.068 outcome. The current price action suggests a rebound from the letter prices to the designated target Mean Res 1.080. Overall, it is essential to closely monitor the Eurodollar market trend and take appropriate measures within critical price action of the support/resistance and dip result.
by TradeSelecter
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Dec 1, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook: After completing our designated Inner Currency Rally 1.099 target this week's session, the Eurodollar performed as flagged in our EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis for Nov 24 by dropping it to a primary pivotal squeeze to Mean Sup 1.087. The current price action suggests a dead-cat bounce to Mean Res 1.092 with a potential rise to retest the completed Inner Currency Rally 1.099 with a follow-through squeeze.
by TradeSelecter
EUR/USD drops ahead of eurozone CPIThe euro is in negative territory in Thursday trade. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0940, down 0.27%. Germany's inflation rate declined sharply in November and the eurozone is up next, with the November inflation report later today. German inflation dropped to 3.2% y/y in November, down from 3.8% in October and below expectations. This was the lowest inflation rate since June 2021 and was driven by lower food and energy inflation. Will eurozone inflation follow suit? The markets are expecting a modest decline for November. Headline inflation is expected to fall to 2.7%, down from 2.9% in October, and the core is expected to ease to 3.9%, down from 4.2% in October. If inflation falls modestly as expected, it is unlikely to cause the ECB to reconsider its rate policy. The markets have priced in a rate cut in May 2024 and a softer-than-expected print would likely result in the odds of a rate cut being brought forward. The ECB has signalled a 'higher for longer policy', as have the Federal Reserve and other major central banks. Even though inflation has been dropping, it remains considerably higher than the ECB's 2% target and the central bank hasn't given any indications of a rate cut. Investors will be looking for hints about rate policy from ECB President Christine Lagarde, who will speak today at an ECB forum in Frankfurt after the eurozone inflation release. In the US, second-estimate GDP for the third quarter was revised to 5.2%, up from the initial estimate of 4.9%. The strong reading should ease fears of a recession but also provides the Fed with little reason to trim rates while inflation remains well above the 2% target. The Fed has signalled a 'higher for longer' stance on rates but the markets are more dovish and have priced in a rate hike in March 2024 at 45%, according to the CME's FedWatch tool. EUR/USD is putting pressure on support at 1.0920. Below, there is support at 1.0873 1.0986 and 1.1033 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
EUR/USD dips as German inflation declinesThe euro is showing limited movement on Wednesday. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0984, down 0.11%. Gerrmany's inflation rate dropped more than expected, coming in at 3.2% y/y in November. This was down considerably from 3.8% in October and below the market consensus of 3.5%. This was the lowest inflation rate since June 2021 and was driven by lower food and energy inflation. Services inflation eased to 3.4%, down from 3.9%. Core inflation dropped to 3.8%, down from 4.3% in October. There's a lot to like in this inflation print and ECB policy makers will no doubt be pleased as German inflation continues to fall. The next text is on Thursday, with the release of eurozone inflation for November. Headline inflation is expected to fall to 2.7%, down from 2.9%, and the core is expected to ease to 3.9%, down from 4.2%. The ECB has signalled a 'higher for longer policy', as have the Federal Reserve and other major central banks. Even though inflation has been dropping, it remains higher than the ECB's 2% target, and the central bank hasn't given any indications of a rate cut. The markets are more dovish and have priced in a rate cut as early as May. If eurozone CPI follows the German release and declines more than expected, we could see the odds of a rate cut brought forward ahead of May. The US economy provided another reminder today that the economy is in strong shape. US GDP (second estimate) climbed an impressive 5.2% y/y in the third quarter, the strongest quarter since Q4 2021. The release beat the market consensus of 5.0% and was higher than the preliminary estimate of 4.9%. The economy showed marked improvement compared to the second quarter, which had growth of just 2.1%. EUR/USD is testing support at 1.0986. Below, there is support at 1.0920 1.1033 and 1.1099 are providing support
by OANDA
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Nov 24, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook: After a pullback, the Eurodollar aims for our designated target, Inner Currency Rally 1.099. This comes after the currency repeatedly hit strong Key Res 1.092 in this week's price action. This suggests that the Eurodollar may experience an imminent rally to Inner Currency Rally 1.099 in this upcoming session, potentially bringing it to a primary pivotal squeeze with an extension all the way to Mean Sup 1.087.
by TradeSelecter
EUR/USD slips on ECB warning, PMIs nextThe euro is in negative territory on Wednesday. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0864, down 0.42%.  The ECB released its semi-annual financial stability review earlier today and warned of stress in financial stability in the eurozone. The report found that tighter financial conditions were making it difficult for households, businesses and governments. In short, the financial stability outlook remains fragile. The review warned that the Israel-Hamas war posed the risk of affecting the supply of oil, which could push inflation higher and dampen growth. The economic picture in the eurozone is not encouraging, as the eurozone economy is stagnating and Germany, once a global powerhouse, has become a deadweight in the eurozone with its weak economy. The euro has jumped 2.8% against the US dollar in November, but that is more a case of US dollar weakness due to expectations of rate cuts in the US rather than strength in the euro. In the US, unemployment claims were lower than anticipated, coming in at 209 thousand. This was below the market consensus of 225,000 and the previous revised release of 233 thousand. The reading indicates that the labour market is still showing signs of strength, which supports the Federal Reserve's rate policy of higher for lower.  The Federal Reserve minutes of the November meeting stated that the Fed plans to proceed with caution and will be keeping an eye on the data in making future rate decisions. The minutes made no reference to any discussion at the meeting about rate cuts, consistent with Jerome Powell's comments after the meeting that the Fed "is not thinking about rate cuts at all". The markets would beg to disagree and have priced in a rate cut in mid-2024. There is resistance at 1.0951 and 1.1017 1.0831 and 1.0748 are providing support
by OANDA
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Nov 17, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook: The Eurodollar has experienced a notable recovery after successfully achieving the designated target of Inner Currency Rally 1.077. This means the Euro has bounced back significantly and shows positive momentum in the currency market. However, as the Eurodollar approaches the next selected mark, Key Res 1.092, it may encounter significant resistance. The price of this resistance level is essential, suggesting whether the Eurodollar will likely fall further. Furthermore, if the Eurodollar fails to surpass the Key Res 1.092 level, it could continue its downward momentum and reach the Mean Support level of 1.084. This crucial support level will offer a substantial price platform against further downward movements. Therefore, it is also essential to keep an eye on the Eurodollar's performance at this level.
by TradeSelecter
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Nov 10, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook: The Eurodollar has undergone a notable downtrend movement from our Key Resistance level of 1.075, a significant level of resistance that the currency has been unable to break through. As a result, it is now expected to gradually move towards the Mean Support level of 1.061, which is strategic support for the currency. Furthermore, the Eurodollar may extend its bearish momentum and reach the Mean Support level of 1.056, which is a firm level of support. However, it is worth noting that the currency could rebound toward uncompleted Inner Currency Rally 1.077 and Key Res 1.075, a level of resistance that the Eurodollar tested in this week's trading session. If the currency breaks through these two levels, it could complete the current Inner Currency Rally 1.077 and continue its upward trend.
by TradeSelecter
EURUSD: Daily Price Action Suggests A Move UpLooking at this pair it's been trading in a descending dynamic channel since mid-July, it makes up nearly 58% of the DXY index and so is in close negative correlation to this index. We can see the on the daily a pinbar followed by a long-wick doji, which could mean reversal, the opposite can be seen in DXY: We can now see a breakout of the channel, and the pinbar was formed on the restest, and now the long wick doji. We have a lot of news this week affecting the Euro (Mon / Tues), and then the USD (Wed). Overall I think that the price action is determining a weaker dollar which means stronger crosses for the next short period of time, dollar needs a rest and has failed to form a new HH yet despite economic news that would normally entice the bulls. There will be volatility this week so being conservative with initial target, however depending on the news we could well see us back over 1.08 this month.
Long
by Finchcliffe
1
TradePlus-Fx|GOLD: high's update💬 Description: The metal follows the previously planned course exactly. Demand continues to grow, including against the backdrop of the aggravated situation in the Middle East, but in addition, purely technically, sellers cannot realize their sales at the local elites. In the very near future, most likely, Gold prices will go towards updating local highs. In turn, this will cause another activation of sellers’ stop losses, and the approach to 2000 will be implemented. 🔔 FX CALENDAR TODAY 🔔 🇪🇺ECB Interest Rate Decision 🇺🇸GDP 🇺🇸Trade Balance 🇪🇺ECB Press Conference 🇺🇸Pending Home Sales 🇪🇺ECB President Lagarde Speak 🇺🇸KC Fed Manufacturing Index ➖➖➖➖➖➖➖ 🚀Thank for your BOOSTS 🚀 👇Share your views and FOLLOW US 👇
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by TradePlus-Fx
12
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Oct 27, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook: As projected, the Eurodollar completed our Inner Currency Rally of 1.070 and retracted to the designated price target Mean Sup 1.053. The intermediate price action suggests the continuation of the Reignited Pivotal Down Move to retest Key Sup 1.047 and completed Outer Currency Dip 1.045 with an extension on the horizon of Next Outer Currency Dip 1.035. Rebound to Mean Res 1.060 is a possibility.
by TradeSelecter
2
Euro H1 | Will ECB drive the Euro lower?The Euro (EUR/USD) is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower. Sell entry is at 1.05684 which is a pullback resistance that aligns close to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Stop loss is at 1.06000 which is a level that sits above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and an overlap resistance. Take profit is at 1.05256 which is a pullback support level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 67% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 72% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short
by FXCM
2
BluetonaFX - EURUSD Under Serious PressureHi Traders! Today is a big day for the EURUSD with the ECB's interest rate decision followed by their press conference. The pair is under some pressure and is approaching its yearly low at 1.04485, and we could see that being broken depending on the ECB's decision today.   Price Action 📊 The market recently broke its long-term ascending price channel, and momentum looks to be on the bearish side. The market is also below the 20 EMA. Fundamental Analysis 📰 The Eurozone has shown strong Flash PMI data recently, so traders will be looking for positive statements from the ECB regarding the Eurozone's inflation issues. Support 📉 1.05090: PREVIOUS WEEK'S LOW 1.04485: YEARLY LOW Resistance 📈 1.06946: CURRENT WEEK'S HIGH Risk ⚠️ No more than 2% of your capital. Reward 💰 At least 4% of your capital. Please make sure to click on the like/boost button 🚀 as your support greatly helps. Trade safely and responsibly. BluetonaFX
Short
by BluetonaFX
Looking at EURGBP ahead of ECB Rate Decision TomorrowAhead of the ECB rate decision tomorrow, the futures markets see almost zero chance we get anything other than a hold at 4.50%. This falls in line with other economies including the Bank of Canada which held rates earlier today. From a technical perspective the Daily chart is back above the wedge breakout level. I took a Long this morning from 0.87140 after a nice rejection candle close yesterday, but price moved sideways and failed to push higher. This continues the pairs lack of conviction above 0.8700 which starts to make it more and more difficult to see price making a clean break higher. So 0.8700 is the line in the sand tomorrow, if we see buyers really step up and drive price higher I'll be looking for more Longs, but if we fall back inside 0.8700 I'll flip my bias short, specially if we fall back inside after the rates have been announced. Best of luck out there and I'll see you tomorrow.
by RuckSack
EURUSD Is Still Bearish Whiel It Trades Below 1.07EURUSD had some nice bounce in the last 24 hours, back to 1.07 which is now acting as a very strong resistance. We also highlighted this one in our website here on TV. I would not be surprised if the pair comes down actually, bakc to 2023 lows since it's very hard to trust Monday flows, plus, we will rarely see directional moves ahead of key events the ECB this Thursday. There are more and more speculations that ECB is done with rates, and that they will not raise this year anymore, which can certainly keep EURUSD pair in a downtrend. Technically we see 1.07 as an important resistance, at the same area of 50d SMA, while hourly time frame shows three waves up from the lows. Grega
Short
by ew-forecast