EURUSD, buyers starting to set up a new continuation? Welcome to Thursday's update. So far today, we have been watching the EURUSD as buyers have started to fight back after some demand crept in yesterday.
We are watching the current price to see if a new continuation can confirm on the 4H chart as price continues to sit on its new fast uptrend. We can see the latest trend forming after buyer's first leg higher broke the last downtrend, but we still need to see price confirm with a new push higher from this point.
We would like to see a test of 1.0250 resistance, and a break of that level could confirm that we have a new trend underway. The ECB meets later today, and rates are expected to increase by 25 basis points. This is a special occasion as rates have not moved in the EU for some time now. Attention will always be on the statement and if there are hints of more to come. Will this give the EUR a short-term boost?
We want to see price continue to trade firm until the decision. If we see a break of the current trend or a move below 1.0155 this could be a bad sign for buyers on the short term.
Ensure you tune in for today's ECB meeting at 8:15 am EST. Enjoy the rest of you your day and good trading.
Ecbahead
ECB night EUR bullish biasAfter leaving the downward channel in late May, ERUUSD has been trapped in a relatively tight zone and waiting for a push to break it, either to the downside or the upside. All depends on what Christine Lagarde says today!
I think EURUSD has a bullish bias, with more room to the upside than the downside. If it breaks the upper limit, my target is 1.0930.
Otherwise, I expect it to hold the support at 1.06.
EUR/JPY tops 144 as ECB-BoJ gap widens: 149 in sight?The euro-yen exchange rate ( EUR/JPY ) hit new year-to-date highs, surpassing the psychological level of 144, as monetary policy divergences between the European Central Bank, which has already widely telegraphed its first rate hike in over a decade, and the Bank of Japan, which remains imprisoned by an extremely dovish monetary policy, widened further.
The spread between the yield on a German 2-year bond and the Japanese equivalent – which acts as a proxy for measuring monetary policy divergences between countries – has now reached 0.7%, the highest since August 2011, exerting upward pressure on the EUR/JPY exchange rate.
The Eurozone is now experiencing more inflationary pressures than Japan. Annual inflation in the Eurozone surged to 8.1% in May 2022, a new record high and well above market expectations of 7.7%, while consumer prices in Japan only grew by 2.5% year on year in April 2022.
While the Bank of Japan can still tolerate the yen's depreciation – which has lost 16% versus the dollar and 11% against the euro since the start of the year– due to the presence of a relatively contained inflation, the ECB no longer has this luxury.
The market is anxiously awaiting the ECB's meeting tomorrow. A rate rise in July is already priced in, and additional hawkish signals (such as leaving the door open to a 50 basis point raise or not ruling out quantitative tightening by the end of the year) may provide additional support for the euro versus the Japanese yen.
Next barrier is 4% away at 149 levels, which corresponds to the EUR/JPY pair's December 2014 highs. Beyond this level, one may consider 153.8, which served as a major support level from 2007 to September 2008.
Can't wait! Christine Lagarde and EUR!Very interesting to watch EURUSD ahead of the ECB annoucement.
Can't wait to see how Christine Lagarde repeat gradualism, optionality and flexibility over and over again, ask the reporters to forgive her for quoting the script just one more time, and at the same time try to signal imminent rate hikes!!
It's just gonna be FUN!!
I wonder what color is she wearing tomorrow. I want a match.
EURHUF Short UpdateDid take the first profit on the short I published on May 26. I moved my stop loss a bit and adjusted the Harmonic pattern to a Daily Chart to have a clearer view. Frankly, I am skeptical of hitting the 357 ish target, But I want to stick to this TA as much as possible. Will partially take profit along the way. the ECB on Thursday is what I'm looking forward to.
Eight-month-old support line test EURUSD bears on ECB dayEURUSD bounces off an ascending support line from November 2020 amid oversold RSI during early Thursday. However, sellers remain hopeful as MACD keeps flashing bearish signals ahead of the ECB’s special meeting. The bloc’s central bank is widely expected to repeat support for easy money policies, likely extending the latest corrective pullback towards a two-week-old resistance line near 1.1870. However, any further recovery will be checked by the 200-day EMA surrounding 1.1930, as well as a four-month-long horizontal resistance near the 1.1990–2000 area.
Alternatively, any surprise moves, coupled with the further covid-led risk-off mood, could drag the quote below the key trend line support around 1.1780. The same will drag EURUSD prices to the yearly low near 1.1700 before highlighting the November 2020 low of 1.1602. It’s worth noting that the US dollar’s safe-haven allure is likely to keep the major currency pair pressured even if the counter-trend traders benefit on Thursday.
EUR/USD SELL IDEAHey tradomaniacs,
welcome to a new free trading-setup.
Note: This is meant to be a preparation! As always we will have to wait for a confirmation!
EUR/USD: Daytrade-Preparation
Market-Sell: 1,20960
Stop-Loss: 1,21170
Point-Of-Risk-Reduction: 1,20810
Take-Profit: 1,20450
Stop-Loss: 21 pips
Risk: 0,5% - 1%
Risk-Reward: 2,50
LEAVE A LIKE AND A COMMENT - I appreciate every support! =)
Peace and good trades
Irasor
Wanna see more? Don`t forget to follow me.
EUR/USD SELL SIGNAL#RISKYHey tradomaniacs,
welcome to new trade-idea.
Note:
This setup involves is a high as the ECB-news can cause everything.
I personally expect the ECB to come up with a dovish statement as previous news have shown that the recovery is not as good as expected.
I take this trade with a low risk as I think that big players are currently pushing price up to attract more buyers to provide liquidity.
Stop-Loss should be far enough for the upcoming possible volatility.
ONLY ´take this trade if you can keep your risk low and accept a potential loss!!!!!!!!
I take this trade because its the very perfect zone to sell for a high risk-reward.
EUR/USD: Daytrade-Execution
Market-Sell-Order: 1,18420
Stop-Loss: 1,18910
Target 1: 1,17940
Target 2: 1,17605
Target 3: 1,17040
Stop-Loss: 49 pips
Risk: 0,5% - 1%
Risk-Reward: 2,90
LEAVE A LIKE AND A COMMENT - I appreciate every support! =)
Peace and good trades
Irasor
Wanna see more? Don`t forget to follow me.
Any questions? PM me. :-)
Pre ECB Rate Decision December 12th
"Dovish Draghi drags EUR/USD lower" has been one of this analyst's favorite headlines – but there is a new boss in town. Christine Lagarde has taken over the European Central Bank's presidency from Mario Draghi and now makes her first decision.
*Christine Lagarde makes her debut decision as ECB president.
*Investors will eye the president's performance and new economic forecasts.
*Lagarde may attempt to appease ECB hawks, driving the euro higher.
What is your view on the Euro and the US Dollar – bullish or bearish?
EUR/AUD: Daytrade-OpportunityHey tradomaniacs,
welcome to another free signal of WEEK 37 Nr. 11!
IMPORTANT: Trading ahead the ECB-Conference today is risky and you should consider not to trade if you got shaky hands.
Not more than 1% risk!
-----------------------------
EUR/AUD: Daytrade-Opportunity
Buy-Limit: 1,60137
Stop-Loss: 1,59956
Target 1: 1,60320
Target 2: 1,60430
Target 3: 1,6050
-----------------------------
LEAVE A LIKE AND A COMMENT - I appreciate every support! =)
Peace and good trades
Irasor
Wanna see more? Don`t forget to follow me.
Any questions? PM me. :-)
Both potential scenarios to look at ahead of ECBthey will either sweep below first and reject taking
out the above equal high and to my level marked 1.2400 or
we take out the above level first and make the HOTW
and go lower and fill in the area below 1.2290
Try and stay away from trading ECB NFP FOMC .. trust me there plenty of other days to trade.
STUDY IT THOUGHT
Personally i like the idea of going higher first taking out the high of the week first then going lower into the imbalance
Swiss Franc(CHF) to fall ahead! With ECB committed to ease in September, pressure is increasing on SNB to further cut rates towards minus 1 percent from current minus 0.75%. CHF has appreciated considerably as a safe haven move recently making higher possibility of intervention by SNB. chart structure has started to favor fall in Swiss franc in coming weeks. Further looking at SMI 20 strong bounces on dip support that franc is going down by SNB actions ahead. It makes high interest rate currencies good buy against chf... USDCHF, CADCHF, AUDCHF, NZDCHF and GBPCHF may remain bid and shall be accumulated on dips for solid gains in coming weeks.
ADP, ECB’s new head & July 4thThe publication of data on employment in the US private sector from ADP was the main even. Considering that official statistics from the US Department of Labor will be published tomorrow, traders and other financial market participants are expressing interest in. Analysts had expected growth in May (140K) however, the number is + 102K, only. On the one hand, the data is lower than forecast, on the other hand, it is significantly higher than the previous frankly disastrous numbers (recall that last month the increase was 27K, only). Well, this is a rather alarming signal. Also yesterday, data on the US trade balance was published (- $ 55.5 billion with a forecast $ 54.0).
Our recommendation is “sell the dollar”. Especially, if you remember Trump's attack on the dollar. Traditionally, in Twitter, the President of the United States called for the devaluation of the dollar.
And about the weak UK business activity data (Composite PMI index went below 50, that is 49.7), which increased the downward pressure on the pound. It’s too late to sell the pound and too early to buy. A similar index was published in Eurozone. The situation there is better (52.2 with the forecast 52.1). So, euro purchasing is not a bad idea ( on the intraday basis).
Ms Lagarde was honored to have been nominated for the ECB presidency. According to experts, Lagarde will adhere to a stimulating monetary policy aimed at ensuring economic growth in Europe. So, the euro might be under pressure.
We expect low liquidity in financial markets due to a holiday in the USA (Fourth of July – Independence Day). The “weak” market may well surprise in the form of volatility explosions, so today it is worth trading with caution.
Our trading recommendations for today: we will continue to look for points for dollar sales as well as the Russian ruble. Since AUDUSD has finished the day with a 0.7020 mark, we do not sell it, duo to further growth. Sell oil. As for gold, today we are working without obvious preferences on the oscillator signals.
Expecting Bearish Movement !!Trend line, Price action, Expecting bearish movement, ECB President Draghi speaks on Wednesday , so there is a minor chance for price to go up during his speech or after. But hey traders trend line is our friend. Good luck!! Time to go to the gym for workout, need to be physically strong, it helps to become mentally strong. And i am sure you know how important it is to become mentally strong, if you want to become Forex millionaire.............)
ECB IDEA! EURJPY LONGSI am waiting to see how the initial reaction is the second rates are released.
I am expecting the market to suck some sell stops at the bottom then power through.
Readings on the release is hawkish and structure is bullish on EU and EJ. So, we will see!
Wait and see how price reacts and get ready too buy!
Good Luck!
DAX 1H chart - EW analysis - posibble short trade / ECB meetingAfter a breakout of the triangle we see an ABC correction, a possible retest of the breakout which should stop around 13.020
The BIG C wave might not be finished yet and price could fall until 12.8XX to finish the correction.
However over 13.070 we are back in the trend, old target around 13.500 (see older posts) are still on the table.
EUR/USD 04-04-2017 (AP)Hello Dear Traders,
1.The pair is forming a descending triangle & a break below 1.0649 would open doors for 1.0620 & later 1.0580.
2.the pair's outlook is still negative & break above 1.0700 would trigger 1.0750.
3. News to follow today is Speech by the President on the occasion of the launching of the new €50 banknote at the E.C.B in Frankfurt, Germany. with no supportive news From the US Dockets today.
4.Enter the trade on the breakout of 1.0649 & target at the 1.0620 or 1.0580.
Note: Everything works with Best money management.
Note: Please leave comments for any query.
Disclaimer: Trade at your own risk.
Good Luck...!!
Regards,
Growing Forex Team
some thoughts on eurusd for this week until the ECB rates...Watching the chart I can spot a nice H&Sh pattern forming and I thought to share this idea.
This week we will have some very big events especially the ECB rate on thursday 8, and until then I am shorting eurusd down.
When Super Mario will release the rates I will be out of the market and close all trades.
Let me know what do you think !!!
FORECAST USDWTIThe WTI is located in a very busy area for trends, and that previous and current conditions a little freedom of movement. The current pattern augurs not fallen but before relevant, G20 and more data in the coming weeks anything is possible.
Only serves the technical analysis, thankfully.
www.fxstreet.com
www.fxstreet.com