ECB maintains interest rate at 4.50% but for how long? History of prior EU Rate pauses:
4 months | Oct 00 - Apr 01
12 months | Jun 07 - Jun 08
3 months | Jul - Oct 2011
4 months | Sept 2023 - Present ⏳SO FAR⏳
At least they could say that this is not the shortest one ever now that we are into month 4.
Historical Average: 6 months (March 2024)
Interestingly this is when the Bank Term Funding Program in the US is ending which was providing liquidity to the banks. It might be a case of one foset gets turned off and another gets turned on.
PUKA
Ecbinterestrates
EURAUD SELLOFF FOLLOWING 09/14/2023 ECB INTEREST RATESI am not a fundamental trader but I do love when a major economic news event plays an impact on the market environment.
This entire month the markets have been very slow and choppy so I stood out of swing trades due to the whipsaw behavior.
This week has been the slowest following last weeks low movement with fed speeches on the economic calendar almost every day.
I had USDCAD shorts that actually just reached my profit target but I closed out earlier this week due to the bad conditions and missed the rest of the trade, I hope you all that followed the analysis benefitted from it more than I did.
On the technical side, I do not trade ranges unless big enough of a range so my only option for this pair was to wait for a confirmation of a breakout and trend continuation before getting active.
I now have a confirmed breakout that I am waiting on my entry to be triggered.
I gave my sell stops a little bit of room before being triggered to avoid potential whipsaws.
My entry is at daily lows below 1.6450 and I will be looking to take a +3R sell to July lows around 1.6330 but price could go lower as there are buyers stops stuck around those lows.
If my analysis is incorrect and my stop gets hit or my trade entry isn't triggered at all then this could signal further indecision in this pair or a possible bottom forming for a reversal back into the former broken range.
Conditions have been poor lately so I am shooting my shot and if this does not go as planned then I will be sitting out the rest of the month and looking for another opportunity in another pair/market.