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EURUSD - Be careful for this week! ☼EURUSD - Be careful for this week! Hey no week ahead video this week. However, pay special attention this week we have ECB now imo it's the fact if they Hike, if they do you'll see bullish short term momentum towards upside. However, the amount doesn't matter because even if they do hike, most of EU countries are suffering when it comes to data front and of course inflationary factors which is global struggle but to mix it up a little the cherry on the top for the EU is Nord stream, its suppose to be turned back on this week and now if it doesn't and we get no rate hike expect the euro to weaken further, re-test areas of 2002-2000 areas go towards LT for that. Now that's this week review on what could happen to EUR and lastly PMIs. However, I'm not done yet - we have FOMC when that day comes CPI high the consumer sentiment high, the data front is bullish as well as retail sales it isn't bad data allowing FEDs having further room they could hike rates further, and of course we all know 75 basis point yes euro declines etc precious metals struggle you get the picture right but there was a moment of the market pricing in 100! Personally, I think yeah sure they could I think it's a little overboard but would be interesting as we have BOC do a nice surprise of that and that was brilliant price action. Now, I get it if they hike do not forget to look at EM currencies etc. There so many pairs including pairs like EURMXN, EURCAD & many others that have great opportunities. I personally won't be around to trade this week but I will be keeping an eye on the market. ☼ Have a great week ahead and trade safe! ☼ TJ
by Trade_Journal
Euro breaks below 1.01 - is parity next?It continues to be a miserable July for EUR/USD, which has declined 3.12%. The euro continues to deliver fresh 20-year lows, dropping to 1.0071 late in the Asian session. The euro has since recovered most of today's losses, but the psychologically-important parity line is getting closer by the day, as the euro continues to stumble. On the economic front, US nonfarm payrolls outperformed, with a reading of 381 thousand, well above the consensus of 240 thousand. The ECB released the minutes of its June meeting on Thursday, with investors hunting for clues about the lift-off hike at the July meeting. The minutes didn't provide any new insights, which could be a disappointment but shouldn't really be all that surprising. The July 21st meeting will be live, with a modest 25bp increase being the most likely scenario, with another rate hike to follow in September. Still, the ECB has not shut the door on a larger hike at the upcoming meeting, and we have recently seen higher-than-expected moves by the Federal Reserve and other central banks. Lagarde & Co. will be keeping a close eye on next week's inflation reports out of Germany and France, the two largest economies in the eurozone. If inflation remains unchanged or dips lower, it will provide ammunition for the doves who are content with a 25bp move. Conversely, a rise in inflation will put pressure on the ECB to respond with a 50bp increase. Another factor in the rate decision could be the exchange rate. A weak euro is attractive for exports but also contributes to inflation.  The euro hasn't been at parity with the US dollar since 2002, and some ECB members may feel that the central bank's credibility is on the line if the euro continues to slide and falls below parity. EUR/USD tested support at 1.0124 and 1.0075 in the Asian session There is resistance at 1.0221 and 1.0324
by OANDA