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Echobubble

DEJA VU #bitcoin $btcTimescale Fibonacci helps you not only map by and see levels on the y axis, but also on the x-axis. Time cannot be ignored. The similarities so far are uncanny. 0.382 fib was the approximate top, previous cycle and this. This cycle BTC topped first on the 0.25 fib. Then the final higher-high of ~69,000$ on the 0.382 .. Bitcoin also bottomed out around the 0.618 level.. The price action is rather similar to the previous cycle.. Breakdown, to accumulation, to fast fomo rally, into an ascending channel (not a flag), before another push higer, aka, the "echo bubble"...,
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by TheTraderAndy
BTC Eve and Adam suggest one is forming on ETHBTCI got a scratching in my head again when looking at the ETHBTC chart and it was beginning to resemble the bitcoin chart and a bit more tinkering has resulted in this post. I see myself doing a couple of editions of this basic concept over the next couple of days. The fib levels show that BTCUSD had a more powerful move as BTC was able to reach the 0.786 Fib retracement level and ETHBTC did a good showing of breaking 0.618 before getting rejected. It is a bit to early to guess now, but that could mean that ETHBTC may not reach the full 1.618 fib extension on its upleg if the Eve and Edam pattern develops and we may have to settle of a mere 1.414 extension. Likewise, the very bullish Eve and Adam had a higher low on the Adam. No guarantee that the Adam low will be lower or higher than the eve on ETHBTC at this point. Quick reminder on Divergences Normal Divergence (Trend Reversal) Bearish: Higher highs on price action but lower highs on the indicator Bullish: Lower lows on price action but higher lows on the indicator Hidden Divergence (Trend Continuation) Bearish: Lower high on the price action and higher highs on the indicator Bullish: Higher low on the price action and a lower low on the indicator The BTCUSD high on the main chart looks a bit deceptive on the log scale, in part because that 90% move doesn't look that impressive. Below it makes things a bit clearer were I focus more on the Eves and not a wider picture. BTCUSD has a technical double top from the weekly candle bodies from the beginning of 2018 to the middle of 2019 and the divergence tore the uptrend to pieces. I also was torn to pieces looking for a short entry too soon and not just being patient and buying the dip. By the time the dip fell to my level I was so pissed off at myself I didn't buy crypto, I had been too burned out on it. ETHBTC is off to the left and the hidden bearish divergence is much clearer. There can be some considerable chop over the next six to nine months as everything comes to order. I called the top on BTC when everyone else was looking for upside continuation and I still remain steadfast on my downside targets on BTCUSD reaching around 14-16k until such time as the 20 week SMA is no longer acting as resistance. So I am operating under the assumption that ETH will fall faster than BTC and perhaps BTC will recover quicker as well and then ETH will have a huge run, appreciating 10x against BTC from its current position. I also called the local top in 2019, but as I mentioned, shorted to soon, repeatedly, and it burned me. I developed my stop and short strategies a bit since then so I may give it another college try in the future. My linked idea from August 2019 is one of my most frustrating ones because, despite the chop it reached my long term target and I tore my account to pieces. I suspect with patience ETHBTC will reach the box below around 0.019 to 0.023. My recent idea on BTC has some target setting for BTC any my target setting for eth is along the same lines (Below the monthly Keltner channel).
Short
by This_Guhy
XBTUSD Crypto Trading Youtube is failing USI follow some choice crypto trading youtube videos and I feel deeply that many of them are failing us. Fundamental concept for price action: when resistance and support flip be prepared for a powerful move. A trend reversal. One prefered trader covered this concept this week, but instead of looking at a multi-year trend they are looking at a month long trendline. Another generally good trader called this move a "beautiful correction" and ignored the fact that tension with China is on the rise, civil unrest in the US is on the rise during election season, and COVID19 numbers are going up. The same thing that tanked the SPX, and XBTUSD, and caused unemployment to skyrocket is still a exogenous shock to bitcoin. Many others pretended that they had covered this reversal as their majority opinion as opposed to their casual cover their ass throw away statement. Crytpo is a peacetime inflationary asset, not one you buy during turmoil and potential real world depression/contraction. We don't have beautiful corrections during these times The OBV is bearish divergent. The MACD is decreasing and the MACD histogram is showing hidden bearish divergence. Price action is stalling at the Upper Value Area. All this at a time when previous support is now resistance and we have turmoil in the real world. How many different bearish indicators do we need? Here is BLX, the chart with the longest history on bitcoin, with a pair of simple volatility stops on the monthly time frame. Now believe you me, when I see the Vstops on BLX flip to bullish I am going to be changing my tune. Until then, my bias is short.
KRAKEN:BTCUSDShort
by This_Guhy
6
Good news! I found the Nokia chartSome people following me might have read about the Nokia example. Well it was here all along. The name is disgusting, it was 1 of the few I didn't try in the long list of results. No wonder I wouldn't find the right chart. Posting this idea as BTC because I want more than 3 views ;) Plus it is the one currently in an echo bubble. First let me repost the railway bubble chart: There was 3 echo bubbles, with the last 1 going higher even. I do not think this is very likely with Bitcoin, facts point to going the sugar & Nokia route. Typical echo bubble death... Let's look at the log charts: Sugar extended down 1.236. Nokia 2. An extension of 1.236 on BTC would bring the price to ~ 1000, 1.618 would be around 600 bucks. My favorite part, the linear charts years later: MoviePass, oh what an awesome scam: A couple varying examples:
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by MrRenev
30