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#BABA Possible another 10% drp to re-test historical trendlineHi All, my main 3 take-outs from this analysis are the following: 1- RSI in the weekly chart is in oversold territory with divergence vs prices 2- Price might re-test the historical trendline at around 100$, which is a 10-13% additional drop from current levels 3- Possible support at 100$ is also a psichological support level (rund number) Not a financial advice, just personal opinion. Do your own due diligence and good luck!
NYSE:BABAShort
by FrancescoMerlettini
WISH - Possible a rebounce today. 1H chart RSI oversoldHi All, my main 3 take-outs from this analysis are the following: 1- The hourly chart shows RSI in oversold territory with high chances of a rebounce 2- Price might be retesting the resistence at arund 4.60$ in the next days 3- Still valid the possibility of an upward breakout of the descending wedge shown in the daily chart Not a financial advice, just personal opinion. Do your own due diligence and good luck!
WLong
by FrancescoMerlettini
3
WISH - Moving in a descending wedge, possibly breaking up soon..Hi Guys, WISH is moving inside a falling wedge in the daily chart. Two third of this wedge is approximately end of January (blue box) where the price might realistically break the red trendline of resistence and reach the 6$. If this will happen, next price targets will be the 9$ gap filling and mostly the 15$ level, which represent the target given by the height of the same descending wedge. In addition to this, MACD on the daily chart is showing a huge bullish divergence which makes pretty realistic an inversion in the upcoming weeks. Not a financial advice, just personal opinion. Do your own due diligence and good luck!
WLong
by FrancescoMerlettini
3
WISH ContextLogic might have found a bottom.Hi All, my main 3 take-outs from this analysis are the following: 1- On June 8th 21 price broke the descending wedge resistence (daily chart) with huge volumes. Target for that move is 19.5$. Let's not forget about this 2- Price between 21 and 50 MA, going to probably test the 6.3$ static resistence 3- Bullish divergence between prices and RSI in the weekly chart Not a financial advice, just personal opinion. Do your own due diligence and good luck!
WLong
by FrancescoMerlettini
7
NYKAA - Bumper ListingNykaa, the High Growth listed at whopping Gain of approx 86% yesterday. Managed to close in green as well and upside momentum may continue for a few trading as well. Those who played for listing gain and got lucky at the allotment, may book some profit or trail some with a stop loss below 2000 levels. Currently, it is difficult to take fresh positions in the stock after a big listing gain, let the stock stabilize, keep it on the tracklist, any correction if seen in the stock, can be a good opportunity to invest in this high growth company.
NSE:NYKAA
by manuagarwal21
3
WISH upside potentialWISH is now a shadow of the company that was rumored that Amazon offered $10 billion all-cash to buy it and Wish's CEO didn`t agree! Now its value is 3.454Bil and two weeks ago it was even lower. But the holidays are coming and all ecommerce platforms will benefit from that. Except for Oppenheimer, who downgraded WISH to Underperform setting a price target of $4.00, the others are more optimistic: Citigroup gives a neutral rating with a price target of 7.5usd, while Credit Suisse Group targets 19usd per share. My target is the 9.4 resistance by the end of the year. i`m looking forward to read your opinion about it.
WLong
by TopgOptions
8
$PINS | WEEKLY WATCHLIST 10/25After absolutely CRUSHING it on Pinterest last week, I have an updated chart overlook for this week. Just to recap, we entered long last week at $54 on the break of the downtrend. $PINS soared up to $66 on the news that PayPal was in talks to acquire them, and we have since secured profits. I believe that was only the beginning of the big picture, and we put in a solid wave 1 last week. Looking to start averaging into a swing position in my buy zone around $52.61-56. From there, we should see an impulsive wave 3 up to fill the rest of the daily gap taking us to $70+. Really love this setup, but remember to wait for confirmation and average into your swing position to help mitigate some risk!
NYSE:PINSLong
by StonksSociety
Broken Correlation Amazon/Alibaba, only an Evergrande thing?Alibaba is off the road... looks like total crash, like Bayer after the Monsanto deal... But Alibaba got no endless billion dollar legal proceedings! Alibaba got a protected billionen chinese market plus a growing part of the world.... The problems with the allmighty Xi Jingping dont making so much noise... The user data part is under political control, so the ecommerece part can go on First thing I'm thinking about is the chinese real estate crisis. But the correlation between Amazon and Alibaba disconnected in june... in My mind the Evergrande thing came to late. Please let me hear your opinion... Im totaly new to this game. Its so amazing! :-D Going Long, Its a temporary thing... Ali ist lower then march '20 and the world wont stop because of Evergrande or so...
CAPITALCOM:BABALong
by FlorianMN
Pinduoduo: Stellar Performance Reinforces Industry PositionChina's largest e-commerce company is transforming its development strategy. Pinduoduo turned losses into gains in the second quarter of 2021, defending its leading position in the Chinese e-commerce area with 849.9 million annual active buyers. Pinduoduo mainly focuses on lower-tier cities' customers and follows a 'universal social welfare' way to expand its business. Agricultural products and reinforcing networks among farmers and customers may become the next profit points for the company. Dazzling financial results On August 24, 2021, Pinduoduo (PDD: NASDAQ) held it's Q2 2021 earning call, showing rather impressive financial results. Its stock surged over 20% at the beginning of that trading day. Pinduoduo turned losses into gains for the first time in the second quarter of 2021. In Q2 2021, the company achieved revenue of CNY 23.05 billion, up 89% year-on-year. Its operating profit reached nearly CNY 2 billion (with non-GAAP operating profit of CNY 3.19 billion), compared with an operating loss of CNY 1.64 billion. In the remarkable quarter, the company received gains (net income attributable to ordinary shareholders) of CNY 2.41 billion, which is a big move compared with a net loss of CNY 0.90 billion in the same quarter of 2020. The company's basic earnings per ADS increased to USD 0.30, and diluted EPS reached USD 0.27. At the same time, its annual active buyers reached 849.9 million as of June 30, 2021, and average monthly active users (MAUs) increased to 738.5 million, accounting for 87% of its annual active buyers, defending its leading position in China's e-commerce area. Analyzing the financials, we found that Pinduoduo's cost control contributes the most to the result. Due to increased promotion and coupon expenses, the company's sales and marketing expenses only increased 14% to CNY 10.39 billion. In comparison, general and administrative costs only increased 10% to CNY 0.43 billion, compared with the same quarter in 2020. Its operating margin and the net margin reached a historical high in the past three years, accounting for 8.7% and 17.9%, respectively. Notably, its sales and marketing expenses ratio has been cut to 45%, compared with 81% and 73% for the same quarter in 2019 and 2020, showing its consistent cost control efforts. When dissecting its revenue structure, we found online marketing services still act as the primary resource of its revenue, which reached CNY 18.08 billion, up 64% year-on-year. According to the earnings call, this was due to the continued increase in merchant activities while merchants are exploring new ways to engage with users. Meanwhile, revenues from transaction services reached CNY 3.01 billion, surging 164% year-on-year, owing to the fulfillment and services provided in the new Duo Duo Grocery platform. As for the revenues from merchandise sales, as a temporary way to meet user demand for specific products, the income from this section was CNY 1.96 billion. Agriculture may become the key to its future As one of the fastest-growing e-commerce companies globally, Pinduoduo has focused on lower-tier markets' consumption demand, becoming famous for value-for-money goods. Consumers can purchase products at a lower price as a group on its merchandise platform. In this way, consumers are allowed to share feedback regarding products on their social media accounts, further amplifying the advertising influence of the company at the same time. Pinduoduo only needed two years to gain CNY 100 billion GMV (in contrast, Ali Group and JD used five and ten years, respectively). The company went public on Nasdaq in July 2018. Then in March 2021, it became China's most prominent e-commerce giant in terms of MAU. The company is infamous for some of its products' poor quality. Even though most of them are cheap, the quality is often worse than it's desired by consumers. To resolve this issue, here are two solutions: the company could build a higher quality sub-platform, or a more 'universal-type social welfare' platform, with which it can gather profit from a broader population. Pinduoduo chose the second one. In April 2019, the company launched a critical transformation, building the Duo Duo Farms platform to help farmers in China's impoverished counties create new online sales channels. In traditional ways, farmers sell primary products to dealers, and dealers trade themselves. When customers purchase the product, the price has been increased much higher than its cost, which harms both farmers and customers. Then, when PDD becomes the mediator, it connects farmers directly with consumers across the country and applies customer-to-manufactory (C2M) to help them build their brands, forming a win-win situation. By the end of 2020, the platform has helped over 1.13 million farmers to sell over 2.06 million tons of agricultural produce. We think Pinduoduo's transformation had a positive impact on its business operations. Before 2020, Pinduoduo had adopted a low-cost publicity model to convert the advertising fees payable to the media into rewards for users who introduce new customers. However, at this stage, we believe that since user numbers are gradually approaching the ceiling (as over half of the people in China are Pinduoduo's users), the model of wildly attracting new customers may no longer be suitable for the company and is difficult to bring profit growth. Facts have also confirmed our idea that the growth rate of the company's MAUs has been gradually slowing down since 2019. So Pinduoduo turned its developing direction to retain its users and add more value instead of attracting more users. Focusing on China's most prominent supply side is a good strategy – after all, it is a blue ocean with few competitions. Hence, we are optimistic about the long-term development of Pinduoduo and believe that its agricultural focus might generate new opportunities. Valuation and bottom line We used EV/revenue and P/B ratio to value the company. Considering that the company has been able to turn losses into profits and its competitors have much lower ratios, we decided to use the adjusted historical average method. From the chart, it is obvious that the ratio is at a low level, which we think is mainly caused by the regulation changes in China recently. Based on its current financial performance, momentum, and competitive landscape, we calculated that 13.5x EV/revenue and 17.5x P/BV is an appropriate valuation for Pinduoduo in 12 months, which corresponds to a target price of USD 141.52. Key risks 1. Pinduoduo's largest risk comes from possible conflicts with registered merchants. The company provides a favorable discount at the expense of downtrodden platform merchants. Besides, the merchants are the primary resources that benefit most of Pinduoduo's promotion activities. Small-scale merchants find it difficult to survive on this platform. In the long run, we think it will lead to the weakness of the supply side and harm the whole platform. 2. Another risk is that the problem of low-quality products still exists. Since the Pinduoduo platform has more razor-thin margins than other platforms, many merchants chose to sell defective goods in Pinduoduo while selling better goods on Tmall and JD.com. We think it is not conducive to the original impression transformation of the company in the long term. For the full article with the charts, please visit the original link.
NASDAQ:PDDLong
by EqualOcean
Shopify $SHOP nearing pivot pointThe e-commerce giant is been behaving very well since its first breakout from the $1,290 resistance. Now is working its way to make a new ATH with higher lows and respecting its $1,500 support. To confirm the buy zone between $1,650 and $1,730, the MACD is making a buy signal with a bullish crossover. Also the relative strength of NYSE:SHOP against AMEX:ARKF is really good, it needs to breakout from the peanant patern it formed to be even better. I'd like to add that the IBD RS rating is 83, that means that its performance is in the top 83% of all stocks over the past year. So, there are two ways to play this. One would be just to wait for the breakout from the $1,650 resistance or, to buy 1/2 of the position today and add the rest when that breakout happens. The bad thing for the second approach is that the buying volume for today is not that great. So, I'll wait for the closing price to see if its really worth to be agressive.
NYSE:SHOPLong
by dpuleo19
McDonalds Ponzied - Rising Rates Environment - Volume MIAAlways up. Buys only. Bla Bla. The MCD in our town just upgraded to a double lane drive thru. Is that a clue? Large caps gobbled up all the smalls. I liked our mom n pops too. Shame. MCD ate them all. So sad. Time to pay their fair share! Corporate tax rates will get the hike they deserve. *Revenues from abroad. Shipped from abroad. Expenses abroad. wow. Milkshakes on backorder from where??? Shame. Large cap Stonks. Hold for broke in a rising rate environment. Go small Caps!! #MSOgang
NYSE:MCDShort
by EpicEconomics
Vipshop Announces Q2 2021 Financial ResultsIn Q2 2021, the company generated CNY 29.6 billion in revenue, with a year-on-year increase of 22.8%. According to Vipshop's Q2 2021 financial announcement: - Revenue rose by 22.8%, reaching CNY 29.6 billion. - Net profit hit CNY 1.1 billion, representing a year-on-year decline of 26.7%. - As of June 30, 2021, Vipshop had cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash of CNY 16.5 billion. - In Q2 2021, the company had a total of 51.1 million active users, showing a year-on-year growth of 32%, and the size of its VIP paid membership increased by nearly 50%. - Moreover, GMV exceeded CNY 48.1 billion, representing a rise of 25%, while the number of orders reached 222 million, showing an increase of 30%. - The firm's total operating expenses were CNY 4.8 billion (up 26.3%), accounting for 16.4% of total net revenue compared with 15.8% in the same period of 2020. - Among them, its fulfillment expenses hit CNY 2.1 billion (an increase of 23.5%), marking up 6.9% of total net revenue compared with 7.0% in Q2 2020. - At the same time, Vipshop's marketing expenses reached CNY 1.4 billion (up 40%), taking up 4.8% of total revenue compared with 4.3% in the previous year; technology and content expenses were CNY 370 million, increasing 21.3% year-on-year; and its general and administrative expenses hit CNY 1.0 billion (a growth of 24.2%), accounting for 3.4% of total net revenue compared with 3.3% in the same period in 2020.
NYSE:VIPS
by EqualOcean
$JMIA Time to WatchJumia is an interesting stock and was a pennystock until they got new management while back. It has recovered, but now it's markcap shows it returning back into a pennystock. At current levels I see an opportunity that you may want to build a position. News -Missed on ER, but they have 600mil in cash TA -Since I been watching, Jumia has about a 7-8% downside to $17.66 which was resistance back in Aug-Nov 2020. Next point of interest is 28.07 bringing a 45% unside move. -RSI is oversold leans bullish -MACD is still bearish and leans more bearish -Below the EMAs, which is bearish but could have an upside of 7% to try and turn bullish again. -High vpvr levels at $22 area Final Thoughts Overall it's a stock I would buy on speculation, but I'm in ASTR atm so I'll be watching it closely while I look for another trade after I make my gains in ASTR. Jumia has major investors supporting it and its a bet on the African Economy, so maybe do some research on Africa of Covid19 and see how much is being impacted. For myself I don't hear anything about Africa on this matter, so its one piece of news I'm unknown on. Overall I told my friend before it crashed it would hit $50, but now with its MC below $2bil I think its a major steal with a massive upside protentional by years end and maybe the short term.
NYSE:JMIALong
by nathanielx9
Make a $WISHTechnical: The has recently been on a downward trajectory. A strong descending triangle pattern is forming. If the stock finds the strength to push through to the upside the stock could reach its previous stock price of the high 20s or low 30s. Good risk-reward to the downside as lower support is in the mid 7 range. Fundamental: E-commerce is the future. Powerhouses like Amazon have paved the way for the growth of the industry but there are new players in town. WISH has set up infrastructure to directly source products from China and other low-cost manufacturers. This makes them significantly cheaper than the alternative, a direct competitive advantage. Furthermore, the e-commerce industry is booming. COVID-19 has only accelerated the rapid pace of technological change as next-day delivery and contactless delivery become the standard. All Star Managamnet Team: Piotr Szulczewski - Founder and CEO Mr. Szulczewski is our founder and has served as our Chief Executive Officer since July 2010. Prior to founding the Company, Mr. Szulczewski served in various positions at Google, Inc., a technology company, including as a technical lead and senior software engineer. Jacqueline Reses - Executive Chair Ms. Reses was appointed Executive Chair in May 2021 and has been a member of our Board since December 2020. Previously, she served as Executive Chair of Square Financial Services LLC and Capital Lead at Square, Inc., a publicly traded financial services company that provides payments, point of sale, and cash flow management services to small businesses and consumers, from October 2015 until October 2020. Farhang Kassaei - Chief Technology Officer Mr. Kassaei has served as our Chief Technology Officer since July 2021. Prior to joining the Company, he served as Senior Director of Software Engineering at Google where he oversaw the development and roll-out of commerce capabilities across its core product suite, including Search and YouTube. Mr. Kassaei previously spent more than 10 years at eBay Inc. where he held multiple leadership positions, including Chief Architect for the core marketplace. Tarun Jain - Chief Product Officer Mr. Jain has served as our Chief Product Officer since August 2021. He served as Director of Product Management at Google from 2017 to 2021. At Google, he incubated and led the development of Discovery Ads, bringing inspirational and engaging commercial ad experiences to YouTube, Gmail and Discover. Devang Shah - General Counsel and Secretary Mr. Shah has served as our General Counsel since February 2018. From August 2010 until April 2017, Mr. Shah served in various positions at Zynga Inc., a game development company, most recently as General Counsel, Secretary and Senior Vice President.
WLong
by howdydany
1
Breakin Ranges on AMZN, can we expect a repetition?Today, we will speak about the current situation on AMZN - The price has been trading inside a range from September 2020 until July 2021 where we observed a Breakout. -Currently, we can see that the price re-entered the broken range. What can we expect from here? KEY IDEAS: -From a technical perspective, it's extremely common that after daily breakouts (structures with a duration higher than 100 days), we observe a throwback (or a retest). As you can see on the previous range, we saw the same sequence. -It's commonly accepted that the target of broken ranges is at least the size of it on the broken direction (we can see some notes of this idea on Wykoff Theory). That is the minimum target that we should expect. With all that clear, let's go to the interesting thing, what is our view on this? IF the price breaks the descending trendline of the current throwback and reaches our green activation line, we will take that as a confirmation of the bullish movement towards the minimum target, of course. At those levels, you should be protecting your capital by moving your stop loss to the entry-level (that is what we do). From there, we want to let the price keep going up towards the final target at 4700 Let's speak about the stop loss and risk: -IF the entry is executed, we always set our stop loss below the throwback, and we use a risk between 1% to 2%, never more. -IF the entry is never executed and the price keeps falling, and we lose acceptable risk-reward ratios, we will cancel this idea. -IF everything goes as expected, we think this movement can last 150 to 200 days Thanks for reading!
NASDAQ:AMZNLong
by ThinkingAntsOk
5
Grocery App Dingdong Maicai: Sky-high GMV, High Costs amid IncreThe popular fresh on-demand e-commerce platform has built its competitive strength in just three years. Dingdong Maicai has maintained a high growth over recent years, achieving the largest GMV and user base in the sector. High fulfillment and marketing costs, increasing competition between top players and a somewhat fragile business model are the main challenges facing the company. Impacted perhaps by Missfresh 's bad performance on the IPO day, Dingdong reduced its ADS offering amount, with some investors turning bearish on the newly listed shares. We deem the stock undervalued. On June 29, 2021, Dingdong listed its shares on the New York Stock Exchange with the ticker of 'DDL.' Just one day before the IPO, Dingdong submitted a new prospectus, reducing the size of the offering by 73.5% (from 14 million to 3.7 million ADSs), which was far lower than the funding it raised in Series D and D+ in H1 2021 (USD 87 million vs. USD 1.03 billion). On the first day of listing, the stock rose by more than 19% to break through USD 40, but the momentum disappeared rapidly. As of July 7, the share price had fallen below the level of USD 27, showing a lack of investors' confidence. Launched in 2014 as an app, Dingdong was transformed into a food logistics company that provides fresh on-demand e-commerce services, building an efficient supply chain. When a user places an order, the goods are distributed by frontline fulfillment stations (warehouses) near the user and delivered within 29 minutes, as the company claims. To date, the company has accumulated a huge user base – 30 million accounts nationwide. According to its latest prospectus, as of March 31, 2021, Dingdong had set up 950 frontline fulfillment stations in 29 cities in China and developed over 12,500 Stock Keeping Units (SKUs). The CEO, Changlin Liang, is a serial entrepreneur. In 2003, he founded parenting discussion platform iYaya.com, which achieved an annual net profit of over CNY 26.5 million, attracting over 70 million mobile users by 2016. Since 2017, Dingdong Maicai has raised over USD 1.75 billion and has been supported by several famous institutional investors, such as SoftBank and Tiger Global Management. Before the IPO, the CEO and other board members held 58.9% of the firm's shares. Now, Tiger has become the largest institutional investor, holding 5.7%, while SoftBank has 5.6% of the grocery platform's shares. Financials: an outlook typical for a growth-stage company Dingdong maintained a growing momentum over recent years. According to its prospectus, Dingdong achieved revenue of CNY 11.34 billion in 2020, surging 192% year-over-year. Its gross merchandise value (GMV) increased from CNY 740 million in 2018 to CNY 13.03 billion in 2020, with a CAGR of 319%, indicating a grandiose expansion. Meanwhile, Dingdong has been suffering from substantial losses. In 2019, the net loss of Dingdong was CNY 1.87 billion and continued to increase in 2020, hitting CNY 3.18 billion. The net profit margin improved over the same period from -48.3% to -28.0%. In the first quarter of 2021, the company reported a net loss of CNY 1.38 billion or more than five times of that reported in the March quarter of the previous year. The company's expansion in the community group buying field pushed the margin back to -36.4% in that quarter. The company's high expenses are an apparent bottleneck. According to its prospectus, the cost of goods sold (COGS) and fulfillment cost are two categories showing the highest figures. The latter, for one, reached CNY 4.04 billion in 2020, up 109% year-on-year: while Dingdong is expanding its business, its operating cost is also rising rapidly. Nevertheless, the fulfillment-expense-over-revenue ratio decreased from 50% in 2019 to 36% in 2020, showing a slight improvement. Money-burning business, intensifying competition On-demand e-commerce businesses in China usually rely upon two primary modes of fresh products distribution: the so-called 'community group buying' and instant delivery. The former type allows to cut logistics costs but is mainly focusing on the frozen products due to the time lag between the wholesale and individual purchases. By contrast, delivery through frontline fulfillment stations is well suited for working with fresh products. Along with the consumption upgrade, delivery through frontline fulfillment stations attracts more and more users. According to Chao Sun, a Strategic Investment VP at Red Star Macalline, the penetration rate of online fresh food in the Chinese market was less than 10% in 2020, indicating a great potential in the sector. Dingdong is implementing a frontline fulfillment, station-based model. Providing cultivation standards for upstream agriculture, this mode is a prerequisite of building an ecosystem foundation of the supply chain. Such a system allows farmers to optimize their production, meeting the market demand. Dingdong's competitive edges are valuable for maintaining a steady position in the market. Also, the processing centers and frontline fulfillment stations now have expanded offerings from fresh produce to other daily necessities, including ready-to-eat, ready-to-heat and ready-to-cook (3R products), plants and home/personal care products. The company's product scope is likely to further expand in the following years. But the new lucrative sector attracts other players. Since 2011, the number of newly registered fresh e-commerce companies has been climbing at a 20% CAGR, reaching 4,103 in 2020. At the same time, the competition among the top players is becoming sharper. One of Dingdong's main competitors is Missfresh, a company following a similar business model. Dingdong's larger SKU figure (12,500 vs. 4,300) and broader clout in China (29 vs. 16 cities covered) puts the company at an advantage over its nemesis. Dingdong's strategic moves have also proven to be more to the point. For instance, it almost immediately started focusing on China's third- to fifth-tier cities in early 2020, as the epidemic began. Owing to this and other strategic decisions, in the first quarter of 2021, Dingdong's revenue increased by 46%, while Missfresh 's decreased by 9% year on year. While there are a few other rivals in the field, competition is not the largest of Dingdong's concerns. Its complex supply chain requires well-coordinated but flexible operation mechanisms to facilitate rapid expansion. Small errors in these mechanisms can lead to considerable losses to the company. Valuation Though the stock, along with those of many other Chinese tech companies, has been recently dumped by some investors, we remain optimistic about the company's potential. The average EV/revenue ratio of its five industry peers – MF, PDD, KR, GO, and MPNG.F – is 5.23x, indicating a 12-month target price of USD 38.11. Enhancing profitability and reducing fulfillment fee rates will be key in achieving further progress. For the full article with the charts, please visit the original link.
NYSE:DDLLong
by EqualOcean