WMT 1Q Earning Target 2021WMT flopped its fourth quarter earnings in 2020 announcing -.74 cents a share. I expect a report with a lot more strength with integration of E-commerce into it online store models as well as less fear surrounding COVID-19 creating boost in sales. With only 1% of shares floating short, The slow grind up, which has been evident since the middle of March, is likely to continue without any strong resistance. Being the largest retailer in 2019 boasting 523 B in sales (NRF.com) doubling AMZN sales, this stock is a solid frontrunner as we move into a post pandemic economy. The NFP report on April 2nd of 916k (almost double the previous month report) compared to the 652k estimate is also encouraging as this could lead to more consumer spending. Still to come this month are MOM retail sale reports on the 15th and 16th which will could potentially back this thesis. Furthermore, with the market creating new highs quickly, there could be a tinge of uncertainty or heightened volatility as the rally hasn't really had much catalyst other than jobs, but with WMT's Beta of .47 (Zachs) this stock is relatively safe. With a debt to equity ratio at a 2 year low as well, this stock is definitely a strong buy in my opinion and I have set my post earnings target for 160 with this stock. This would be an all time high and about a 2% increase from current highs which is definitely within reason all things considered.
Ecommerce
BIGC: Searching for bottom (more pain or attractive entry?)I'm still somewhat bullish on NASDAQ:BIGC (been feeling uber bearish so going to post this long play for balance) Price is looking for support but larger market factors can lead to continued sell pressure. Accumulation is the name of the game here. Bearish divergence building since Dec. '21. Loose stop on this one. Targets and additional info on the chart.
Facebook Is Attempting a BreakoutFacebook has gone nowhere since August, but now the social-media giant could be squeezing toward a breakout.
The first interesting chart pattern is the descending trendline running along the November and January peaks. Prices are now challenging that line.
Second, notice how the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) tried to serve as resistance in late February and early March. But then the rising 200-day SMA emerged from below as support. (See the red and green arrows.) Prices are also breaking above the 100-day SMA.
Next is the $255 area. This was near the top on July 31, when FB gapped higher on strong earnings. That level was another source of support in the recent consolidation pattern along the 200-day SMA.
Finally, notice how MACD is now turning bullish for FB.
The fundamental story could also be interesting because advertising revenue has been strong across the Internet space. Additionally, FB is a member of Communications . That sector, created in September 2018, has broken out as other Nasdaq-heavy buckets like Technology and Consumer Discretionary remain below old highs. Thanks to advertising, Communications may offer the cleanest cyclical exposure of the three.
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E-commerce dislocation The main competitors of e-commerce, including Ebay, Amazon, MercadoLibre, Jumia, Square, PayPal, Pinduoduo, Etsy, Shopify, JD and Alibaba, are experiencing a major correction, some are touching crucial support levels, so there is the possibility of rebounding, but also the possibility of them falling further.
In any case, they continue to belong to a growing sector with future potential.
Support and Resistance for SHOPThe dashed lInes repersent some weaker support and resistance where I expect some price reactivity. The solid lines are historical supports and I expect for rejection or larger moves to take place off of. Lows have been swept up last week with large volume which could be a combination of short covering or confident buyers adding to their position. This is significant because it shows that despite the markets downturn, there is still some bullish activity in the stock. This stock has a beta of 1.56 so it will be generally more prone to market volatility. After a worse than expected Earnings report coming in at .99 a share (1.24 expectation) the stock corrected from its pre earning run up. From here a full retrace to 1204 which was a generally accepted price between buyers and sellers is possible. There is also the possibility that price runs back up to the gap at 1322-1335, this could be a very reactive area. Sitting under the December highs I would say that there isn't much of a bull bear bias for this stock quite yet as the market corrects and with the bad earning's report. Note that while Shopify is a leader in it's category- companies like e-Bay, Amazon, and Walmart all offer integrated e-commerce. Furthermore BigCommerce now offers their sellers a chance to directly market and sell their products on the Walmart Marketplace which could be huge for the brand.
SHOP - Nice bounce- going to $1460If you saw my previous post "SHOP- The Big Picture" then you would see that SHOP has bounced at one of my trend lines higher than I expected. I have followed this stock and made a lot of money on it since the $200's. I really think after Friday and the bullish close that we are going to $1460 were there will be resistance. Can we break through the 52 Week High recorded recently? That will be a major test. If it does pass $1500 the next peak will sell off so be aware of that.... GL!
Bull Flag (long)Ozon Could test $80 before the end of the month, if breakout is confirmed.
Personally going to buy June Calls ( Q4 Earning March 30 )
Strong Growth in Russia eCommerce and holiday season earning could make Ozon go Parabolic.
(Not Advice) , do your own DD, I am a novice investor.
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SHOP - The big pictureShop is having a great run, but a pullback is in the near term whether after even a higher spike on earnings or prior to earnings . These are the long term trend lines where the bounce from a pullback has happened over the long haul. I feel that somewhere between 1250-1300 will be the next bounce. Someone posted that it will pullback over 50%????? ah NO WAY! Even in COVID the lowest percentage lost was 44%. The only way that will happen again is in a market crash. So this is the big picture..... GL!
ETSY could provide an upside swing from a potential bull flagETSY seems to be forming a bullish flag on the 4H time horizon. The company saw a huge run toward the end of 2020, and has recently sold off amongst the broader market. Now that we are in another bullish tape, ETSY looks ripe for a rebound and a test of former highs. Fundamentally, the ecommerce business should continue to see buying in the current growth + inflationary environment.
Ebay is ready for a new bull runNASDAQ:EBAY is breaking out and heading higher, targets are shown on the chart. I think this stock is cheap and deserves a considerably higher price. Stop around 44$.
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This is only my own view and not financial advice, do your own analysis before buying or selling
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Definetly going up into earnings - Triangle pattern I think we all agree the wonderful triangle will take us to new highs. I have been trading and following SHOP since the $200's and she has rarely disappointed. I was hoping after last earnings she would spike as usual, but no. This time she will! :) GL! and $$$$$
JMIA is could break out north and push higher In the long run Jumia should continue to grow as the internet becomes more widely available throughout Africa, fundamentally this is of benefit to the $JMIA. Looking at the price structure it appears to be in a consolidation before potentially making another run which I would expect to be north with the current long term trend.
$SHOP - 5-count Pennant Breakout Opportunity$SHOP is showing incredible confluence in Fibonacci in addition to a 5-count completion on it's most recent bullish pennant.
This is pre-breakout but is looking likely to happen this week - targeting previous highs and creation of new ones!
First entry: $1217
Confirmation: $1238
TG1: 1245.91
TG2: 1260.69
TG3: 1286.14
TG4: 1322.59
TG5: 1347.15
Invalidation under: 1153
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