MELI and SE CorrelationMercadoLibre ( NASDAQ:MELI ) and Sea Limited ( NYSE:SE ) are two highly correlated stocks in the same sector (Internet entertainment/e-commerce).
Since SE had a 50% increase in the second half of 2018 (marking the beginning of the market-cap similarities), their correlation began, and SE's large moves (or lack thereof) are highly likely to be precursors to moves from MELI, making it a rare case of a leading indicator unlike most (i.e. RSI and MACD which are lagging indicators).
As these moves take time (usually about 3-6 weeks), these plays are for multi-week/month traders who seek consistent returns. I've annotated the correlation plays within the last two years which should serve as a framework for anyone seeking to take advantage of these opportunities in the future.
TL;DR: SE and MELI are highly correlated, and, as annotated in the analysis, SE is a leading indicator for MELI generally speaking. The areas of big moves by SE are usually precursors for big moves by MELI, and areas of consolidation by SE are usually indicators that MELI's big moves will reverse. Ideal time frame: 2-6 weeks per trade.
As always, do your own due-diligence, never risk too much per trade, have your own plans and targets, and be responsible.
Chart image without volume:
Ecommerce
NET - MOMENTUM TRADE SLINGSHOTCLOUDFLARE (NET) met expectations 2 days ago on my previous post and broke out from a Blue Sky Set-Up. It paused yesterday for profit taking and is currently set-up again to continue it's move to hit a round number target. Needham just raised its price target to 38, a mere 3% away from it's current price. NET is a clear beneficiary of the shift to work from home and e-commerce on increased demand for cybersecurity. The company provides an integrated cloud-based security solution to secure a range of combination of platforms, including public cloud, private cloud, on-premise, software-as-a-service applications, and Internet of Things (IoT) devices.
Current set-up is a slingshot which could potentially result to another Bullish Marobozu similar to the breakout candle. Possibilities are: (1) it pauses for another day (today) with low volatility or (2) continue its range expansion and hit 38-40. Pauses can extend to three days with tightening ranges and decreasing volume indicating a healthy profit taking before proceeding to make an explosive move which is otherwise referred to as a Boomer Set-Up. Best approach to prevent early participation if explosive breakout doesn't materialize is to buy at the break of the yesterdays high supported by volume acceleration. This can clearly observed and managed on the 15-minute chart.
Its time for Wayfair to chill out!This absolute turd is way overbaught and once again around the peak of the weekly MACD.
Started a short position as the S&P also seems to be showing SOME signs of weeknes...(imagin).
Because this is a dumb money crowd play my short stop loss is tight and if it breaks green on any day I would be ending my position.
Should be easily send fown to $150 or even less in the near term.
Overstock broadening wedgeNASDAQ:OSTK broadening wedge forming. I think it will go up eventually.
Related names: OTC:OSTKO COINBASE:BTCUSD KRAKEN:XTZUSD NASDAQ:EBIZ AMEX:ONLN NYSE:W
Short SHOP
Overbought on low volume.
Short 750, Stop 775, Target 1 670, Target 2 590.
Shopify has benefitted from an increase in stores on the platform during the pandemic but this short term metric does not justify a longer term price. Yes, it's been necessary for traditional brick and mortar only to migrate to e-commerce but this is priced like those customers are going to be around for the net 20 years, not just implementing an emergency strategy to survive in this extraordinary time. Great first quarter results, and a sound business, but a little too rich at this time.
JUMIA - African Amazon Makes Another BreakoutOur previous objective of $6 is almost reached. A confirmation pullback pattern could form using the $6 resistance. If not, the next resistance is at $7.
Today's breakout represents a strong mid-term buy signal as we can now see a cup and handle pattern combined with a breakout.
We also note that the rally that started on 20 March point could be the start of a new Elliot Wave.
I made $3843 Paper Trading Fiverr in 1 DayFirst off, please don't take anything I say seriously or as financial advice. As always, this is on opinion based basis. That being said, I have recently made $3843 in a paper trading simulation buying Fiverr in just a single day. Testing the current correlation waves for Fiverr, I would say it is still mostly bullish and I reintegrated my strategy into some high growth stocks as well. Will see if I might be the Nostradamus of stock predictions after all (minus the pseudoscience or the shadiness that comes with that statement).
Fiverr Crushing Call TargetsI recently was bullish on Fiverr, even implementing it in my own personal test strategies. While, it is too early to say I was right, my bullish call seems to be quite accurate. As always, this is on opinion basis and don't take anything I say seriously, as I'm not trying to solicit any financial advice. That being said, the revenues per share and losses per share were BETTER than expected. I had a bullish call prior, and don't be surprised if the stock continues to rise as with most of my predictions. Not claiming to be Nostradamus here, but look there are patterns and real math. I am wrong sometimes, but the calls been on a high streak recently. It is interesting to see how other online and e-commerce like sites such as Shopify, Etsy, may perform. (Though I consider Fiverr some weird cross between freelance, pro and amateur services and the e-commerce market). I think it is closer to an internet retail metric than a data processing category, however.
Short Target for Etsy at $70First off, please don't take anything I say seriously. As always, this is on opinion basis, and not financial advice. That being said, let me get into a few key points I want to make. Right now Etsy seems bullish and many analyst are giving it buy and hold ratings. I believe for a quick profit turn over with mitigated risk for day traders, a $70 short target should be quite reasonable as your next move.
EBay: Channel Breakdown UnderwayE-commerce stock eBay reported earnings last week. The backward-looking results were ok, but forward guidance wasn't so hot. The resulting drop is creating some bearish chart patterns.
First, EBAY formed a tight channel between $34.50 and $36.60 since October. It's now breaking the bottom of that channel.
Second, the channel began on October 24, when EBAY gapped lower on weak guidance. Its recent drop on January 29 wasn't technically a gap (because there was some price overlap with the previous session). However, you have a gap down, consolidation and further downward pressure. The direction and high-volume price moves have been negative.
Third, EBAY has formed something of a head and shoulders since last March and April. That pattern follows a failed breakout attempt in early 2018. Nothing bullish in that.
Finally, EBAY has gone almost two years without making a new 52-week high, unlike the broader S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 indexes. A steady lack of relative strength like that is also a sign of underlying weakness.
A year ago, EBAY had a bullish gap between $31.02 and $32.73. It may now come into play as a downside target. Given the market's recent fears, traders looking to get bearish may want to start with weaker names already under pressure. EBAY could fit that bill.
Amazon.com: Pausing at Support Before EarningsThe major indexes have been rallying to new highs, but one of the most important companies in the market hasn't participated: Amazon.com .
The e-commerce giant spiked the day after Christmas thanks to news of a " record-breaking " holiday season. That ended a three-month imprisonment below its 200-day simple moving average (SMA). It also established AMZN back above the $1,850 area where it peaked in mid-September.
The shares seemed overbought at the time of the breakout in late December. They were not only pushing the top Bollinger Band, but stochastics were also well above 90.
Now that it's worked off the overbought condition and some of the other moving averages are rising, AMZN could be ready for continuation to the upside. There's also a catalyst for a potential move because earnings are due on January 30.
Finally, Alphabet just crossed $1 trillion of market cap yesterday. AMZN's about $69 billion away from that big number. How long before that becomes a point of conversation?
High Basing Pattern as Wal-Mart Takes Market ShareIt's hard to say which traditional big-box is doing a better job adapting to the digital age: Wal-Mart Stores or Target . Both have successfully used online strategies to keep shoppers in their brick-and-mortar locations. That's helped avoid the kind of painful downsizing sweeping other retailers.
It's paid off recently for WMT, which beat profit estimates all four quarters in 2019. The shares got a little ahead of themselves the last time it reported on November 14, resulting in five weeks of consolidation.
During that time WMT formed a high basing pattern, or a very tight cup-and-handle. The December low of $117.42 was just slightly higher than the late-October low of $116.83. Plus, it held the 50-day SMA.
Fundamentals in WMT also remain healthy, with observers seeing the potential for its online grocery push to keep driving market share.
In conclusion, few people view WMT as a "growth" stock. But it's starting to act like one. And now it has a cup-and-handle, the classic growth-stock pattern from William O'Neill's classic How to Make Money in Stocks .
NASDAQ:AMZN
SHOPIFY Going deepMAxive correction ahead. Earnings delisional.
This was my and also many other's best pick in 2018. Long term I still believe in the business. As Square they support small retailers instead of replace their logistics (Amazon).
p.s. This H&S is not regular. Neckline is not parallel to the abscissas. The slopes goes towards the leftS. Completion mean the price level to surpass leftS level.
Alibaba testing heavy resistanceAs shown in the chart, we are testing a heavy resistance tested multiple times.
Technical indicators are showing mostly consolidation.
If I were thinking of getting into a position, I would wait. If I had Alibaba stock, I would strongly consider taking profits (selling 50% +)
Obviously breaking this resistance would be an important step towards a strong uptrend.