BABA is cheap - below all analysts targetsTechnical analysis (daily chart)
RSI(10) @62
OBV on steady uptrend along with the RSI
CCI(10) @100
MACD > MACDsignal
Fundamental analysis
BABA is a buy right now @$177. Well below analyst price average targets of $225. (Over 25%)
Fair value Morningstar note
Our fair value estimate is $240 per ADS incorporates management's full-year fiscal 2020 outlook calling for over CNY 500 billion in revenue (representing 33% growth year over year).
* Meaning... If they achieve this growth, the price target will make sense.
Good luck!
dorfmanmaster
Ecommerce
AMZN: News from India Could Help Complete the Top After a BounceAmazon was in the pre-market news today. India has put heavy restrictions on the e-commerce retailers, AMZN and WMT and others. The ruling affects many products that Amazon sells. India’s rules will bar retail e-commerce companies from engaging in an exclusive partnership with a seller. This could hurt Amazon’s expected revenues from India. This dominant e-commerce company hit Market Saturation in many of its primary global markets and was relying upon massive growth from Indian customers as a new revenue source. This new ruling from the Indian government changes Amazon’s plans abruptly.
The stock is in a topping formation that has still not completed yet. The stock dropped through support levels and then rebounded in a bounce up along with most big-name companies yesterday. HFTs are likely to react to this news soon. Support levels are shown as black lines in the attached weekly chart.
JD thoughtsI feel this company has a good future and agree with their focus on expanding their logistics to bring better services to their clients. Without a good logistics group the system will fall apart. I would be looking for a similar pattern of a double bottom it had from April to Early June. Could last a bit longer this time as earnings are set for sometime in November.
Alibaba long with the Market wide dropAlibaba's price dropped in the first hour alongside the market because of the trade fears. I took that as an opportunity as Tmall owned by Alibaba is also participating in the 618 mid year festival. The key difference is that Tmall has extended their sales to the region namely Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore and Australia.
This means that in addition to China consumers, consumers across APAC will be able to access products at deep discounts online and offline during the event.
This year Tmall is working with over 70 shopping malls and commercial districts across mainland China and Asia to open pop-up stores that will offer consumers a seamless online and offline shopping experience. New Retail is a key element in this year's promotion, combining online and offline elements.
I expect Alibaba to also release a report of their positive sales across APAC + China after the 618 Festival closes. A study on their offline popup store performance should also be expected.
JD.com Trading China's 618 eCommerce shopping day15 June JD.com had risen along side all major technology stocks including the NDXT. The Dow Jones however had dropped and this lead me to believe that people were exiting other categories and entering into technology as a safe haven. This could also be because of the trade wars chatter between US & CN that has lead to people leaving categories that had a reliance on commodities.
I also found out that the 618 Festival that ends on the 18 June. This festival in 2017 lead to JD to achieving a record US17.6Billion in sales. A report of the 2018 sales results i'm sure would be released after the 18 June and this will drive JD's stock price up.
16 June saw the enter Technology index dropping and JD stock saw a huge drop within the first trading hour. I quickly entered as it was a better price that what I was looking at and I believe the drop was a market reaction and given that both the 15 June and 16 June were aligned with the market. I made the assumption that the potential 2018 618 result had no been factored in the existing price.
Let's see how next week goes! super excited
Bottom of handle is forming before this monster breaks outChinese e-commerce is growing rapidly while half of China is still not connected to the online world. BABA and SoftBank own significant stakes in Baozun which is worth less than $2bn now. In my opinion, $40 will soon be broken and this will reach new highs. Here, you could see a nice cup and handle pattern. I expect market-wide selloff to halt starting next week which should give BZUN a nice boost. We're also currently sitting at the .5 fib retracement level.
Alibaba Breaking OutAlibaba is a leader in eCommerce in the People's Republic of China (China's Amazon). The growth there is two fold, eCommerce much as it is in the United States is a bullish and growing trend, but China also has a growing middle class with rising discretionary income. As a result, Alibaba is experiencing growth not many companies ever see and they are sustaining it. They are becoming players in many different industries as well, including mobile electronic payments and cloud computing. The stock recently broke out from a period of consolidation on above average volume. Watch for the trend to continue higher, but exit the position if the stock closes below its breakout line. Updates to come...
Shopify Breaking Out once againShopify is a SaaS company providing eCommerce solutions to businesses of all sizes. They allow retailers to set up websites for fractions of what it cost to build a full blown eCommerce platform from the ground up. The company is showing explosive revenue growth due to the proliferation of online retailing and the ability to provide a better and cheaper solution to many of its customers. The stock recently went through a period of consolidation from mid September until now after Andrew Left made it a short target of his. The recent breakout was on above average volume. Watch for the stock to continue to rise, but be quick to exit if it closes below the breakout line shown on the chart. Updates to come...
EBAY Long 2-6 Weeks Technicals and valuation support a bullish rebound. Supports at 35 from the channel it has been trading in since June. PE of 5.2 is a steal in this market where the S&P trades at a PE of 25. Excellent margins support their profitability. There should be enough space in e-commerce for both Ebay and Amazon NASDAQ:AMZN allowing both to continue to grow.
JD potential buy opportunitybuy point ~ 39
stop loss ~ 37
target ~ 45
risk ~ 5-6%
potential gain ~ 15-18%
1:3 risk to reward ratio
take this with a grain of salt. feel free to raise the stop loss instead of selling given that you believe JD will benefit from the growth of ecommerce in China. check them out.
AMZN, leading the way (while catching up?) to e-commerceIt's hard to say that Amazon has never been a leading indicator of e-commerce growth as this chart might suggest, but it will be interesting to watch how the relationship develops as AMZN charges ahead. On one hand, Amazon continues to diversify outside of e-commerce (ironically dipping its toes into brick-and-mortar while single-handedly destroying the model). Yet this pair is inextricably linked, as for the time being one cannot survive without the other. Correlations remain high and the runway for e-commerce is long.
Ebay Bearish Trade due to normal pullbacksIt is normal for the market to make corrections when things get to high up and for people to start profit taking once earnings are announced. I know ebay as a stock that is volatile when it comes to earnings. So due to the big upswing this has been in it is natural to expect a downward swing to come bring others to reality. It can always go against me, that I do know. But I believe the chances of me winning out weight the chances of me losing on this trade which is a bearish credit spread with a credit taken in of $105.01 after commissions with this particular trade I went ahead and loaded up twice on the same trade so I took in around $209. With a risk of around $188, and max return of $209. Wish me luck. This strategy will set the precedent for the Macy's trade I have outlined in my "ideas" section on tradingview. I told my significant other that I am a bit afraid of this trade going against me because it is ecommerce, and I believe so much in ecommerce that I find this risky to bet against. BUT in the short term (which is what i'm doing) I would believe this can go down on earnings.