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Economic

Is Global Oil Demand the Key to Energy Market Stability?In the intricate landscape of global energy markets, the question of oil demand remains a central enigma. Driven by a confluence of geopolitical tensions, OPEC+ production strategies, and economic dynamics, global oil demand is a complex tapestry that shapes the future of energy markets. Geopolitical events, particularly in the Middle East, have historically been a significant driver of oil price volatility. The recent escalation of tensions has once again underscored the delicate balance between geopolitical stability and global oil supply. As geopolitical risks rise, so too does the price of oil, impacting investors in oil-related securities like the United States Oil Fund (USO). However, geopolitical factors are just one piece of the puzzle. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, OPEC+, play a crucial role in regulating global oil supply. Their production decisions, often influenced by economic considerations and geopolitical pressures, can significantly impact oil prices and, consequently, global oil demand. Beyond geopolitical tensions and OPEC+ dynamics, economic factors also play a vital role in shaping global oil demand. The global economy, with its cyclical nature, influences energy consumption. During periods of economic growth, oil demand tends to increase, while economic downturns can lead to reduced consumption. The interplay between geopolitical risks, OPEC+ strategies, and economic factors creates a complex and dynamic environment for the global oil market. Understanding these intricate relationships is essential for investors seeking to navigate the challenges and opportunities presented by the oil sector.
AMEX:USOLong
by signalmastermind
Bitcoin 1H UpdateMEXC:BTCUSDT Apparently a correction has been started. The high of the structure confirmed by touching the IDM.i. If the 1H candle closed lower than IDM.i, we may expect price to drop further to the DP.i / ENG.i / EX.i otherwise the IDM.i grabbed and make a SCOB for us to enter another Buy Position and the target one is the high of structure (63850) and the second target is the MPL zone (64460). P.S: In the DPs & ENGs zones and grabbed IDMs we MUST get a confirmation signal to enter position which is SCOB or lower time frame (LTF) ChoCh. (EXs are confirmation-free entries) I will update Bitcoin regularly.. Take Care Aurio
by x-Aurio
Is the S&P 500's Bull Run a Mirage?The S&P 500's recent all-time high has ignited a frenzy of optimism among investors. However, as the market reaches unprecedented heights, questions arise about the sustainability of this bull run and the potential risks lurking beneath the surface. While the allure of soaring stock prices is undeniable, investing in a market at its peak carries inherent risks. The concentration of returns within a few dominant stocks (such as Nvidia, Alphabet, and Amazon), coupled with the potential for geopolitical shocks and economic downturns, introduces significant uncertainty. The dot-com bubble serves as a stark reminder of the market's cyclical nature and the perils of overvaluation. To navigate this complex landscape, investors must adopt a balanced approach. Diversification, coupled with a keen understanding of economic indicators, geopolitical events, and corporate news, is essential for making informed decisions. By recognizing the potential pitfalls and taking proactive measures to mitigate risk, investors can position themselves for long-term success in the ever-evolving market. The S&P 500's future remains uncertain, but by approaching the bull market with a critical eye and a strategic mindset, investors can navigate the challenges and capitalize on the opportunities that lie ahead.
CBOE:SPXShort
by signalmastermind
Why is the Canadian Dollar Outperforming Expectations?A Deep Dive into the Unexpected Resilience of the CAD In a landscape marked by economic uncertainty, the Canadian dollar has defied the odds, exhibiting remarkable resilience. This unexpected strength is a result of a complex interplay of factors, including the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, market dynamics, and global commodity trends. The Federal Reserve's Pivotal Role The Federal Reserve's shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy has been a key driver of the CAD's rally. The Fed's hints at potential rate cuts, especially in response to a weakening labor market, have weakened the U.S. dollar, boosting the appeal of other G10 currencies, including the CAD. This has created a favorable environment for the Canadian dollar, as investors seek higher-yielding alternatives to the U.S. dollar. Short Covering and Positioning Dynamics Another significant factor contributing to the CAD's strength is a wave of short covering. Traders had previously bet against the CAD, anticipating a divergence between the easing cycles of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada. However, as the U.S. dollar weakened and the CAD began to rise, these short positions became increasingly unsustainable. Traders were forced to unwind their bets, adding momentum to the CAD's rally. The Impact of Rising Oil Prices Canada's significant oil exports make it particularly sensitive to fluctuations in oil prices. The recent increase in crude oil prices, driven by geopolitical tensions and potential supply disruptions, has provided a further boost to the CAD. As a major oil producer, Canada benefits from higher oil prices, which can lead to increased exports and a stronger currency. Assessing the Risks and Challenges While the CAD's rally has been impressive, it is important to acknowledge the potential risks and challenges that could undermine its momentum. The Bank of Canada's rate cuts, although expected, could narrow yield differentials and put pressure on the CAD. Additionally, ongoing global uncertainties and subdued risk appetite could limit the loonie's upside potential. Key Data to Watch Several key data releases will be closely monitored in the coming weeks. Canada's GDP data will provide insights into the health of the Canadian economy and could influence the Bank of Canada's policy trajectory. Meanwhile, U.S. economic reports, such as PCE, will be watched for potential shifts that could affect the USD/CAD exchange rate. Conclusion The Canadian dollar's unexpected resilience is a testament to its strength in a challenging economic environment. While the current momentum is positive, investors should remain cautious and closely monitor key economic indicators. By understanding the underlying factors driving the CAD's rally and assessing the potential risks, investors can make informed decisions about their currency exposure.
Short
by signalmastermind
Title: Ringgit Rally Fuels Foreign Bond Inflows: A Deep DiveThe Malaysian ringgit has experienced a substantial appreciation, driven by robust foreign investment in the domestic bond market. A surge in capital inflows, totaling RM5.5 billion in July alone, has propelled the ringgit's performance. This analysis delves into the underlying economic factors driving this trend, examining key indicators and assessing the outlook for sustained growth. While the current trajectory is promising, investors must remain cognizant of potential global economic headwinds. Key Points: Strong foreign inflows into Malaysian bonds Ringgit's appreciation driven by multiple factors Deep dive into economic indicators shaping USD/MYR Assessment of Malaysia's economic fundamentals Cautious outlook amid potential global challenges Key Drivers of the Ringgit Rally: Currency Appreciation: Investors are buying bonds unhedged, betting on further ringgit gains. Strong Domestic Economy: Malaysia's economic robustness and expected interest rate stability bolster investor confidence. Global Factors: Anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts weakening the USD benefit the ringgit. Economic Indicators Influencing USD/MYR: Interest Rate Differentials: Higher local rates attract foreign capital, strengthening the ringgit. Inflation Rates: Low inflation supports currency value. T rade Balance: Surpluses strengthen the ringgit, reflecting Malaysia's export strength. Economic Growth: Domestic consumption and government spending drive economic growth, enhancing the ringgit's appeal. Political Stability: A stable political climate attracts investment, supporting the currency. Global Economic Conditions: Global trends and geopolitical events affect investor risk appetite and currency flows. Outlook: Malaysia's diversified economy, fiscal prudence, and growing middle class underpin the ringgit's strength. Efforts to boost foreign direct investment and exports further support currency appreciation. However, global uncertainties, US monetary policy shifts, and geopolitical tensions could introduce volatility.
Long
by signalmastermind
S&P 500: All-Time Highs and Potential DeclineS&P 500 (SPX) Technical Analysis The S&P 500 (SPX) has continued its bullish trend as anticipated the previous week, successfully reaching the projected target of 5450. However, it now appears poised for a potential decline. This Week's Outlook: The price is likely to experience a strong bearish correction as long as it trades below 5450, potentially reaching 5310 and 5260. However, the SPX is expected to consolidate between 5450 and 5260. Bullish Scenario: To initiate a new bullish trend, the price must close at least a 4-hour candle above 5450, targeting 5485. Sustained stability above 5450 would be required to confirm a bullish move towards 5550. Bearish Scenario: As long as the price remains below 5450, it is expected to drop towards 5345 and 5310. A further decline could see the price reaching 5260. Key Levels: - Pivot Line: 5450 - Resistance Levels: 5484, 5525, 5550 - Support Levels: 5372, 5320, 5261 Weekly Expected Trading Range: The anticipated movement range for this week is between the resistance at 5460 and the support at 5260. In summary, maintaining a position below 5450 suggests a bearish outlook with lower support targets in focus. Conversely, closing above 5450 could indicate a bullish reversal, aiming for higher resistance levels. Our Previous Weekly Idea: Fundamental Analysis:: Market Analysis: S&P 500 at All-Time Highs Amid Overbought Conditions Overbought Conditions Aren't a Sell Signal: A low VIX indicates an overbought condition, but it does not serve as a sell signal. Bullish Momentum in the S&P 500: The S&P 500 (SPX) is once again at all-time highs, with bullish momentum accelerating. Following a favorable interpretation of the consumer price index figures on Wednesday, the S&P 500 surged to new intraday and closing all-time highs. Fed's Impact and Market Reaction: Despite a somewhat lukewarm outcome from the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting later that day, which triggered some sell programs, the overall buying momentum remained strong. Positive Indicators Amid Overbought Conditions: Our indicators have largely remained positive throughout this phase and continue to signal bullishness. However, overbought conditions are starting to appear, which is expected given the strength of the rally.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by SroshMayi
🔥🔥GOLD TO 2330🔥🔥❤️MY FOREX TEAM❤️ INFORMATION Gold price climbs steadily, eyeing Wednesday's $2,300 psychological figure amid high US Treasury bond yields and a soft US Dollar. Speeches from Federal Reserve officials, strong jobs data, and a dip in services business activity weighed on the American currency. Therefore, the XAU/USD spot price is at $2,295, refreshing all-time highs and gaining more than 0.60%. Recently, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated the US central bank has time to deliberate about rate cuts, given the strength of the economy and the inflation readings. He reiterated that if the economy evolves as expected, they will cut borrowing costs “at some point this year.” 💲BUY / SELL SIGNAL UPDATES SHORTLY💲 Follow channel for regular updates Everyone success..👍👍👍 ❤️MY FOREX TEAM - Technical Analysis Technical indicators SMA | EMA | MACD | SAR | VWAP | RSI | MARKET TREND | NEWS ❤️NOTE Gold price soars, supported by weakening US Dollar in face of high Treasury yields. XAU/USD was boosted by Fed Chair Powell hinting at rate cuts within the year, contingent on sustained inflation decline. Despite a strong job market as shown by ADP data, indications of a slowdown in services activity contribute to the precious metal's gains. ❤️MONEY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT ⚡️ Only Trade With Risk Capital ⚡️ Cut Losses Short, Let Profits Run On ⚡️ Avoid Using Too Much Leverage ⚡️ Avoid Taking Too Much Heat ⚡️ Do Not Give in to Greed ⚡️ Take profit equal to 4-6% of your capital ⚡️ Stop lose equal to 2-3% of your capital
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by My_Forex_Team
Can Javier Milei's victory pull Argentina out of the hole?Introduction Argentina has not been doing well for some time, holding the second-largest economy in South America, behind only Brazil. It has been suffering from poor policies that have harmed the country's macroeconomy. Not only that, but it seems that all of Latin America has fallen into the hands of progressives, enthusiasts of communist parties, and also dealing with drug trafficking in countries like Brazil, Colombia, Bolivia, and Ecuador. When Javier Milei won the elections in Argentina, this could have been significant. The neighboring country is hostage to a left-wing ideology that refuses to transact in American currency, which many consider absurd, as the foreign currency is the strongest in the world, while the local currency is considered one of the worst. The reason is high inflation, reaching around 100%, the devaluation of the internal exchange rate, which is even advocated by these politicians, but in practice has increased the cost of imports and the payment of external debt. Here we can observe a chart of the performance of the US dollar against the national currency And we can see that the situation is so absurd that not even the Argentinians themselves believe it, as a significant portion of the population dollarizes their capital to avoid the effects of high inflation and interest rates. In addition, there is a political crisis, low credibility of the Argentine government for a long time, low international reserves, high-interest bonds with near maturities, making it difficult to repay debt, and a high outflow of foreign investment, reducing the influx of dollars. This happens because the leaders of the Platine Republic are anti-foreign currency, proving once again how absurd this scenario is. If we stop to think for a moment, we know that the powerhouse is a global reference when it comes to having a strong economy, good numbers, and not just for that. The US dollar is a reserve currency, representing 60% of global reserves. Over 70% of the forex market is currency exchange, and the main currencies in the world are traded against the foreign currency. The US dollar is also a benchmark for other assets such as metals, commodities, oil, stocks (since the two largest stock exchanges in the world, NYSE and NASDAQ, move dollars every day), and even bitcoin itself, which has the most traded parity in the world against the US dollar. Remembering that the Argentine public machinery is very rigid. Some advantages of dollarization are: * Protecting the nation from exchange rate speculation, which can cause instability and devaluation of the national currency; * Safeguarding the state's macroeconomic indicators, such as inflation, from more serious deteriorations, as foreign money tends to be more stable and reliable; * Sharing the benefits of stability in the value of the foreign currency against the national currency, which can increase the p urchasing power of citizens and stimulate territorial economic growth; * Reducing transaction costs for trade between countries that use the same currency, facilitating commercial and financial relations. Some disadvantages of dollarization are: * Losing the ability to influence its own monetary policy, i.e., losing financial autonomy. This means that the state can no longer control its interest rate, money supply, and exchange rate, becoming dependent on the economic policy of the issuer of the foreign currency; * Making the process complex and difficult to reverse in the future, in addition to implying a high cost for its implementation. * The territory needs to have sufficient reserves of the US dollar to ensure the conversion of the national currency and to face possible economic shocks; * Preventing monetary authorities from acting as lenders of last resort to commercial banks in a scenario with complete replacement of money. This means that the nation can no longer bail out banks in times of crisis or insolvency, increasing the risk of the financial system's bankruptcy; * Exposing the country to fluctuations in the foreign currency against other currencies, which can negatively affect some sectors of productive activity. Now elected, we know that the liberal leader will face various difficulties and obstacles to make the Platine Republic recover, as not only it but all of Latin America, including Brazil, has adopted policies that do not please investors and economists. The proposal to adopt the world's strongest currency as the official currency may face significant obstacles, as the crisis-ridden economy faces many problems. However, it could help reduce inflation, which could reach 100%, also end high-interest rates, investor and international creditor confidence, and also facilitate access to and repayment of external debt, which represents 70% of the Argentine GDP, in addition to stimulating economic growth and productivity, eliminating exchange distortions and capital controls. In addition, it implies the total loss of autonomy of its central bank to regulate the money supply and interest rate according to the needs of the economy. In theory, this is concerning, but in practice, considering the amateurism of management in Latin America, it is much better to have the confidence of the Federal Reserve than to rely on political appointments, as the South American nation does not have an autonomous central bank. Society faces various problems that concern the population and the rulers, such as the abyss, poverty, exchange rate dependence, external debt, political instability, and climate change. These problems result from a long history of economic crises that have marked Argentina since the 20th century. The neighboring country not only survives on crises because even adopting bad policies over the years, there are good companies that have overcome disastrous economic problems and have been successful and are now listed on the NYSE and NASDAQ. Let's focus on 5 companies listed on the American stock exchange based on technical and fundamental studies. Starting with Banco Macro (NYSE): It is a private financial institution founded in 1976 in Argentina, specializing in serving the demands of the northern provinces of the country, where it has a strong presence. The bank offers a wide range of products and services for individuals and legal entities, such as current accounts, savings, credit cards, loans, investments, insurance, and foreign trade. The bank is part of the Macro Group, which also includes other companies such as Macro Securities, Macro Fiducia, and Sud Inversiones. It has more than 9 million customers, 8,700 employees, and 870 branches throughout Argentine territory. In addition, it has equity stakes in other financial institutions, such as Banco del Tucumán and Nuevo Banco Suquía. It is one of the leaders in the Argentine banking sector, with a market share of 8% in deposits and 9% in loans. Its net worth is $2.1 billion, and its total assets are $16.4 billion. Its growth strategy is based on geographical diversification, expanding the branch network, technological innovation, and customer loyalty. This is a very interesting company even though it is Argentine. We can observe the good performance it has had during this period. It has an interesting price, and in this sideways movement after a large appreciation, it seemed that the stock could correct back to around 16. But this may not be true since a high volume entered, slowing the fall. This can be interesting for an entry of a flow contrary to the sale. But still, it is a representation that was quite undefined because they were waiting for the election. It seems that with the definition, there was a bullish rally causing the price to rise to around 20.94. With the triumph, the shares of Argentine companies experienced a significant increase with a gap from 20.43 to 26.05, starting a new bullish rally. Observing the fundamental analysis of this stock as well, we can see that it has delivered good fundamentals and, combined with technical analysis, will present an optimistic behavior for hold. Grupo Financiero Galicia (NASDAQ) is an Argentine financial services holding company, created in 1999. The company owns several subsidiaries, such as Banco Galicia, Tarjeta Naranja, Compañía Financiera Argentina, Sudamericana Holding, and Galicia Administradora de Fondos. Its capital is formed by 1,474.7 million shares, with 281.2 million Class A shares, with 5 votes per share, and 1,193.5 million Class B shares, with 1 vote per share. Among the companies that are part of the group, Banco Galicia stands out, the holding's main asset and one of the largest banks in the country. It has 308 branches and 6,500 employees throughout Argentine territory. In addition, the group has a minority ownership stake in Banco do Brasil S.A., the largest bank in Latin America. In the Argentine financial system, the group has a market share of 8.9% in deposits and 9.4% in loans. Its net worth is $2,063 million, and its total assets are $17,532 million, according to data from the first quarter of 2022. The technical analysis of the group is very similar to that of Banco Macro (NYSE). If we observe these red bars in this chart, they indicate a high traded volume, having this bar color different from the traditional green, red, or white and black colors. The reason is that this coloring serves as a heat map, and the hotter it shows, the higher the volume and participation in the asset, and the colder, the less participation in the title. This plugin, together with the volume delta plugin, shows the actions of participants who made decisions to buy securities. Similarly, we also see a gray part in this red bar, which shows the presence of participants also acting against those who made decisions to buy the asset, for example. But apparently, it looks a lot like BMA, however, with a slight downward bias to the 13.48 area, possibly falling in that range. If the stock went below this zone, it could seek lower levels, such as returning to the area of ​​least interest in the market, which is the 10 range. This would happen because of the uncertainties of Argentine politics, which now seems to have been concretized with the victory of the economist, this bias has changed to upward, starting a new uptrend channel on the daily. Here we also observe a supply test between 12.85 and 11.60, with a lower selling flow than the last buyer, after the largest absorption of purchase that happened between 10.59. Now, also with the last asset analyzed, we have an uptrend channel. Despite having a very strong selling flow, it rejected to the bottom of the candle, where it has already started to rise again, with a possible increase now with the new established management. Now, moving on to the fundamental analysis. The financial indicators of the company are great, despite being based in Argentina. What is very interesting is how these companies are very well managed, even in a problematic country like Argentina, which is why they are not on Nasdaq for nothing. Mercado Libre: Mercado Libre is an e-commerce company that operates in 18 countries in Latin America. The company has more than 16,000 employees and plans to hire another 4,000 in 2022. It also has agencies scattered throughout Brazil, which are neighborhood stores that deliver and receive packages. Thus, the company can meet a large demand from online consumers. The platform has a diversified ownership stake, with investors such as eBay, Goldman Sachs, Tiger Global Management, and Dragoneer Investment Group. It has also acquired stakes in other entities, such as Aleph Group, a digital media organization, and Grupo 2TM, the controller of the Mercado Bitcoin broker. It is the leader in market share in the e-commerce market in Latin America, with more than 76 million active buyers and more than 12 million sellers. The platform also offers financial services, such as a payment system that allows online payments, deposits, and credits. Its net worth in 2020 was $2.6 billion, an increase of 123% compared to 2019. Its total assets in 2020 were $7.2 billion, an increase of 95% compared to 2019. To conduct a more in-depth study of Mercado Libre, we will have to use some different charts. The first chart we will use is a weekly chart, where we can see how the company performed well in March 2020. It seems that the Nasdaq index and the Dow Jones started to work in an accumulation range, absorbing all the panic of Covid and causing the market to rise significantly. And it is no different with Mercado Libre, which also started a much higher rally than the fall it suffered at the beginning of the Covid-19 explosion. And it may seem little, but this fall from February to March caused the stock to lose 40% of its appreciation. Even more absurdly, after this major climatic event we had in 2020, the stock went from 596 to 1955, representing more than a 220% appreciation. With very good performance, also driven by the Nasdaq index, as the main technology index, during this period of 2021, technological products such as hardware, motherboards, graphics cards, and others had a high appreciation. Also, technology-focused assets, as the entity benefits greatly from technology. In this same weekly chart, we observe that in 2021 we had a drop to the blue 50-period VWAP range. The abrupt drop, which may seem little, took it from 1955 and went to 1393, returning to 1955 again, already in August 2021. We can also see that there are 2 blue candles in the weekly chart, and it forms a double top, which is a common reversal pattern in technical analysis. And until November, there was a lot of selling flow entering, starting the downtrend cycle. All this selling flow has a reason because these are The abrupt fall may seem small, but it dropped from 1955 and went down to 1393, returning to 1955 again, already in August 2021. We can also observe 2 blue candles on the weekly chart, in addition to forming a double top, which is a common reversal pattern in technical analysis. Until November, there was a significant influx of selling pressure, initiating a downtrend cycle. All this selling pressure has a reason, as it involves well-educated individuals with a lot of experience and academic background who dominate the market and know exactly what they are doing. In 2022, we experienced unusually high inflation levels, approaching those typically seen in developing countries. This was concerning, especially since the technology sector is sensitive to inflation, reflecting the overall devaluation of the free market. We can see it starting at 600 and then reaching the range of 1098, creating a range between 1110 and 1300. It's a peculiar range, starting as bullish but showing some absorption at this price level, with several tops formed around 1307. Also, the platform is in an uptrend channel, which initially wasn't favorable due to the stock market facing difficulties and various fluctuations, often dragged down by the technological index. However, with the triumph of the economist, Argentina's largest company benefited from this rally and seems poised for a significant increase, especially on the daily chart. From indecision, it now leans towards a bullish bias. Let's now look at the asset's evaluation. Currently quoted around 1000 USD, which is quite impressive for an Argentine organization, especially as it enters the Nasdaq Composite technology companies index, which speaks for itself. However, its current situation isn't favorable, reflecting the overall state of the stock market, as its scenario mirrors that of other companies on the American exchange. In addition to technical and fundamental analysis, we must also consider macroeconomic data from the U.S., which, to some extent, impacts the market, especially interest rates, having long-term effects and depreciating major assets in the American market. Apart from this company, there are 18 other Argentine institutions listed on both NYSE and Nasdaq. Despite the country's challenging and worrying economic situation, these companies have managed to progress amid the difficulties faced by Latin America due to various measures. Conclusion: Well, we don't know if the president will indeed implement all that he proposes, even though he is economically liberal. Managing a nation requires alignment in both politics and administration. Obviously, he will face challenges in politics too, given the diversity of congress members. So, the proposals he aims to implement over time will have challenges, likely generating opportunities in financial markets. We hope Argentina can overcome this crisis, as greater opportunities often lead to higher profits.
NASDAQ:MELILong
by Victoredbr
Head and Shoulders Pattern Forming on the DXY Dollar IndexWhen the dollar is running, most other assets are dropping. This has been my experience in the markets and is why the DXY is on my watchlist and is ALWAYS one of the first charts that I check before jumping into the markets. When the DXY is high, that means that people are demanding dollars, and when it's dropping, those dollars are flowing into other assets. Learning to watch the DXY and it's movements will give you some good edge in the markets. Not everything will be effected. There are always other market conditions to watch for, news, etc that can move the markets as well, but keeping your eye on what the USD is doing is certainly something you want to add to your trading routine. So the Head and Shoulders pattern is a strong reversal pattern in the markets. Nothing is ever 100% and the pattern could fail, so you always have to be ready for that. The regular Head and Shoulders is a bearish reversal pattern meaning we have found the local top in that market at that time. An Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern is the opposite. It usually shows at a market bottom and indicates the possibility of bullish movement. What we see here is that the DXY is knocking on the door of a breakout of this pattern and if it keeps going up, well, you will want your trading account to be in the dollar, or looking for shorting opportunities in other assets like crypto and FOREX pairs, that is if you are trading futures or options. If you are trading spot, this is the time to be in the dollar and waiting for your chosen asset to hit a fire sale clearance price, then go in an scoop up what you can with what you have! Of course none of this is financial advice, just some things I have learned along my journey in this crazy world of trading that has helped me make some successful trades. As always make sure you have a solid risk management plan before diving into the deep end! Doing this will help you gain some edge in the markets and trade logically!
TVC:DXY
by thelogicaldude
SPY- Bearish- UpdateHas been a while since I've posted an update on the SPY as a lot has transpired in financial markets over the past few weeks, and months. The SPY has been trading significantly under its average daily volume, which has primarily been the driving force behind the momentum in my opinion. On the other hand, the SPY is holding a nice symmetrical triangle on the weekly timeframe. Nonetheless, buyers and sellers continue to battle, however, on the daily timeframe the SPY is overbought on the RSI, and two Bearish Megaphones are currently still playing out. The SPY is yet again, at a make-or-break spot in my opinion. If we see another leg down, we could see a re-test of the COVID-19 trendline support. As I've said before and will happily say again, where I stand, we're in unchartered territory - Just some support and resistance levels to keep an eye on in the interim, along with some RSI-based supply and demand zones, staying hedged. --Previous Charts Attached In Description -- Weekly Timeframe Daily Timeframe Covid-19 Trendline Support
AMEX:SPYShort
by jacobosiason7
BTC Economic cycleso as i indicated here , we have 4 phases in each economic cycle : 1- expansion : it happens when the masses believe in future this asset will come in handy or valuable . so as the rally already started by those who joined earlier cause of their connections now retailers enter this market . 2- peak : its the very place that first by whales distributing and masses buying at higher and higher prices and then masses scared of no demand area , price starts going downhill . 3- contraction : where now retailers sell for lower and lower prices . price goes bellow actual value of the asset and then ; 4- trough : where whales and actual characters who play right start accumulating . we are currently in the beginning of the EXPANSION era , but would we reach 100k$ this year ? i Honestly don't think so . but we shall let this be decided later , as for now : i believe bear market has ended .
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by hamidking82
Commodity Outlook: Cyclical pressures vs structural strengthsCommodities have been enjoying a strong revival in recent years, with broad commodities returning 27% in 2021 and 15% in 2022. A combination of fiscal and monetary support in the early phases of the COVID-19 pandemic helped to soften the damage to demand from one of the deepest economic shocks in modern times. As COVID-19 restrictions lifted, commodity demand bounced back strongly. In 2022, the Ukrainian invasion presented a supply shock, restricting energy and agricultural product supplies and further supporting commodity prices. Whilst many developed world central banks tightened monetary policy in the first half of 2022, inflationary pressures became the most extreme since 1981. Commodities proved again to be one of the best asset classes to hedge this extreme inflation. After arguably falling behind the curve, developed world central banks sought to get ahead and became the most hawkish since the early 1980s. Commodities emerged as a refuge in the storm. Cyclical headwinds have emerged Commodities, often seen as a late-cycle asset performer, struggled in late-2022. Energy prices, which had been propelling the asset class, declined by Q3 2022, joining metals, which had been weak since Q1 2022. Economic deceleration resulting from monetary tightening in developed nations weighed on the asset class. Composite lead indicators (CLIs)—designed to provide early signals of turning points in business cycles—turned decisively even before 2022 started. Commodity performance peaked later in 2022. CLIs are still declining, indicating the cyclical headwinds faced by commodities are still present. China reopening to counter economic headwinds elsewhere The global economic rebound experienced in 2021 and 2022, and the accompanying commodity rally, occurred largely without China’s contribution. Chinese policy makers pursuing a zero-COVID policy up until November 2022 hamstrung their economy, and growth was disappointing. Although Chinese exports remained relatively strong due to international demand for Chinese goods, constant supply disruptions restrained export volumes during the zero-COVID period. Now that China has abandoned its zero-COVID policies, domestic economic activity is picking up strongly. In fact, the January and February prints of Purchasing Manager Indices (PMIs) in 2023 look encouraging. Both manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs rose clearly above 50 (the demarcation between growth and contraction). The February figure (released on 01/03/2023) showed manufacturing PMIs hitting levels not seen since 2012, underscoring that the domestically driven recovery is reaching industry as well as services (manufacturing is more commodity-intense than services, so that is arguably the most important of two indicators). What about the commodity supercycle? We believe commodities should see long-term structural support from an energy transition and an infrastructure spending rebound. Furthermore, these catalysts could drive another supercycle in commodities. Supercycles coincide with periods of industrialisation and urbanisation when the supply of commodities failed to keep up with the growth in demand. The last supercycle occurred after China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001, which turbocharged development as barriers to commerce were removed. After two strong years of commodity market performance (2021 and 2022), could we be on the cusp of another supercycle? We believe there are some strong structural underpinnings but, for now, business cycle dynamics (including a rising risk of recession) could dominate price behaviour in the short term. Energy transition In a scenario where net zero emissions are targeted by 2050 in order to limit temperature increases to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, we should see a significant rise in demand for metals. Metals are critical for the manufacture of batteries, electrification of power energy consumption, electrolysers, heat pumps, and other technologies needed for the energy transition. International Energy Agency data indicates that, in a net zero emissions scenario, supplies of critical materials are going to be woefully short of demand, both in terms of mining and material production. Infrastructure rebound In the US, three Acts with partially overlapping priorities - the Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill (2021), the CHIPS and Science Act (August 2022), and the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (IRA, August 2022) – have a combined budget of close to US$2 trillion in federal spending and the infrastructure intensive projects are only just starting. Just looking at the energy funding from the Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill and the Inflation Reduction Act, a total of US$370 billion is earmarked to be spent over the next 5 to 10 years, primarily to facilitate the clean energy transition. The IRA encourages the procurement of critical supplies domestically. In order to meet the supply chain requirements, we expect large infrastructure spending on mineral extraction, processing and manufacturing. The European Union’s REPowerEU plan—designed to wean the economic bloc off Russian hydrocarbon dependency—will also require a large spend on energy infrastructure. The EU is already building liquified natural gas capacity at breakneck speed, aiming to expand capacity by one-third by 2024.1 The EU estimates that delivering the REPowerEU objectives will require an additional investment of €210 billion between 2022 and 2027. The green industrial ‘arms race’ takes off After decades of underspending for the climate policy goals governments have signed up to, we may be witnessing a tipping point. Some of the protective features of IRA (regional sourcing requirements) may propel tit-for-tat policies that drive local sourcing elsewhere. Many nations recognising China’s dominance in critical materials had already been designing policies to mitigate the risk of overreliance on the country. This process is likely to drive an upsurge in ex-China green infrastructure spending globally. Conclusions After several years of commodity market outperformance, the asset class is already experiencing cyclical headwinds. However, a China reopening is likely to mitigate some of these pressures, and we are seeing tentative evidence of China’s economy rebounding. Commodities are likely to be underpinned by global policy support for an energy transition. Whilst general infrastructure spending may also face cyclical headwinds this year, green infrastructure spending is likely to lead to a new ‘arms race’ as countries compete to support their industries and maintain energy/resource security.
CBOT:AW1!
by aneekaguptaWTE
UBIX is a Silent bomb! This is why:The collaboration with the Acceleration Group: Surveillance footage notarized by silent notary (build on the Ubix network) is a huge accomplishment! The Acceleration Group is far from a small company if you know what it is.... Just insane! Also the collaboration with Langia, just amazing...! The REAL USE CASE the Ubix Network Team is providing is just stunning! People, UBX is/was hidden for a reason. I have no doubt this protocol is going to explode in the near future. It provides an actual real life use cases on global scale... And will provide much more in the future. The growth of the protocol is from self speaking. USE CASE + USE CASE + USE CASE + GLOBE = ECONOMIC GROWTH TREMENDOUSLY! Fundamental UBIX passes the test! Mind blowing!
ULong
by UnknownUnicorn27344900
2
SPY- Bullish Reversal - UpdateThe SPY closed out the week strong after finally getting some strong bullish momentum as a result of the CPI & Jobless Claim Data that came out on Thursday. If CPI continues to decrease as it did, I can certainly see the SPY gaining even more traction and finally breaking out of the bearish megaphone that it has been holding since November 2021. Subsequently, the SPY closed on Friday reclaiming both its 50, and 100-Day SMA's, as well as having the EMA's starting to curl upwards. The SPY is currently flagging on the weekly timeframe and couldn't look better at the moment, while there's a potential for a slight rising wedge to have formed, the plethora of bullish technical, and fundamental indicators will invalidate this wedge even if it does fully form (See Attached Chart Below). On top of this, there is a considerable amount of hidden bullish divergence on the RSI as well as a bullish ABCD Harmonic Pattern Forming. The coming week will undoubtedly be a make-or-break type of week with the SPY going to test its 200-day SMA, which has been acting as strong resistance, especially considering all of the economic data coming out throughout the week. Personally, am bullish here and looking for a breakout on the upside, in my opinion, the drop in CPI could've been the catalyst for the markets to start heading upward and break the downtrend they've been holding. Some RSI-based supply and demand zones to keep an eye on in the interim, Bullish and hedged for the time being, which I hope to cut- --See Previous Charts Attached Below-- --Weekly Timeframe-- --Previously Charted--
AMEX:SPYLong
by jacobosiason7
1
SPY - Update (From Nov. 2021)Posting an update on the SPY here as the markets closed out the week in somewhat of a make or break spot. The SPY continued to follow the bearish megaphone that it's been holding for months, while simultaneously holding the downtrend stemming from a massive head and shoulders on the SPY's weekly timeframe (See Attached Charts Below). A bearish bat harmonic pattern also formed on the SPY on Friday, as it broke below a strong support level circa $368.27 and closed near its 52-Week low at $362.17. This comes as seller volume continues to outweigh buyer volume as the markets head into a big week economically speaking. In the upcoming week, economic data and events include New Home Sales, Consumer Confidence, International Trade Numbers, Jobless Claims, and to cap off the week, GDP Numbers as well. Treading lightly here, some RSI-based supply and demand zones to keep an eye on in the interim, bearish and hedged- --Previous Charts Attached Below-- Weekly TimeFrame Testing Key Levels From 2020 --Previously Charted--
AMEX:SPYShort
by jacobosiason7
1
⁉️ Economic calendar week 19.09-23.09 Hello traders! ✅ The upcoming week will be full of events. The most important are central bank meetings in USA, Switzerland and UK as we expect to have an increase of bank rate. ✅ During FED Meeting market watchers will be on high alert for how the U.S. central bank views the current pace of monetary tightening, the strength of the economy, and how likely inflation is to persist - as well as signs of how the balance sheet unwind is proceeding. ✅ The Swiss National Bank meets on Thursday with officials expected to deliver a 75-basis-point rate hike, matching the European Central Bank’s recent move even though inflation in the Eurozone is far outstripping Switzerland. ✅ The Bank of Japan also meets on Thursday amid speculation that Japanese authorities are close to intervening in the foreign exchange market to support the weak yen, which hit a 24-year low against the dollar earlier this month. My recommendation is to avoid trading during this events.
by Snick3rSD