Economic
EURO/USD - Watch The Breakout - Final Days Of 2016 PipsHi Traders,
We continue to monitor EURO/USD for a breakout. As you can see price has not been able to settle above the key resistance line (Blue) however price has advanced in an upward direction finding support on the lower trend line (green).
We feel a catalyst is required for price to breakout and we have 3 opportunities this week for price to breakout.
Today we have US Consumer Confidence which is expected to be bullish.
Tomorrow we have US Unemployment Claims which are expected to be bearish.
Our view is that technically price is in a bearish trend and thus we feel more inclined to sell the Euro than to but it. With that said we cannot rule out a larger correction spurred by negative US economic news.
Our advice is to set alerts on the Resistance line and Support line and to take your trading direction on price breaking out of either of these lines.
You could also trade the range with small stop orders on either line a sell on the resistance line and a buy on the trend line. We'd risk 10-20 points at most for this style of trading.
We wish you luck traders and hope you can close the year with a decent amount of points on a breakout.
Trade brave.
The Big Short | Putting Economic Data to the TestHello Traders,
I have been fiddling with the idea of applying the same model used to predict Financial Markets to Economic Data.This is my first attempt at applying the model to such data publicly. Consider this post an experiment.
Taking into consideration some fundamentals (and a little bit of rationalizing); Since the auto industry bail outs of 2008-2009 interest rates have been at a record lows(0%). Car sales reacted accordingly making a full recovery into pre 2008 levels. Now that QE and 0% interest is over (interest rates are likely to rise in the next few years), there is a bit of stagnation in the car industry as a whole. Once attractive lease offers and 0% financing is off the table a decline in sales should occur. Overall, when interest rates are high people buy less as a whole.
Questionable Lending Practices: The use of Sub Prime loans in the auto industry and selling those loans as bonds has an all too familiar ring to it. Granted, it is not as rampant as it was in the mortgage industry, but the same practices of junk loans being sold as junk bonds is occurring. One does not need to be a prophet to know what the end result of that is. Take a look at this satirical piece by John Oliver for more detail: www.youtube.com
Self Driving Cars: It is imminent, self driving cars are the future and can reach the everyday consumer as soon as 2020.
www.nissanusa.com
Why is this important? The idea of self driving cars also brings up the idea of not having to own a car to get around in one. Cars being able to move around without a driver + (UBER + Car Manufacturer Collaboration) = Less consumers having to own cars to get around in one. www.wired.com
The Model: The most important aspect here is the model. Time and time again it has proven to predict and forecast financial markets with pin point precision. Here, the model points to 5.26 as the highest probability target.
So...what does this all mean? If the model is successful in predicting the outcome of auto sales, it means that there will be a massive decline in auto sales. It also means that there is a great recession looming over us like a dark cloud.
The ideas discussed in this thread are purely conversation topics that help "aid" the rationale behind the targets defined by the model. I do not consider myself an economist, nor do I think I have the full range of ideas listed in this thread. If you feel like you have a different outlook or if I missed something please feel free to discuss it in the comment section(with sources to back up your view).
Best,
Chartistry
Short S&P500 1D candle / 9 month time frameI can see a repetition of the same pattern that occurred in November, with a trend reversal (Price diverges from upper BB) after a rapid rally. Furthermore, the trend reversal occurred at a consolidated resistance point 2015. Finally the stoch indicator hints to a downtrend as well as the a bearish dominance that the negative slope of the balance of power indicator has. Furthermore, it has to be noted that external, mainly european, forces put negative pressure on US equities. The brexit referendum creates uncertainty in the market and the Chinese economic slowdown contributes to the unfavourable bad earnings of Q1.
How to look at the impact of economic data on the marketEconomic data will accelerate the trend or change the trend, so do not bet on the data, unless you have a large floating profit
Guess who's back....Abe is back..Political pressure no longer exists.
JPY plunge a main priority for Abe now.
Long Gold Short OilGold has a historic relevance as being a price appreciator in times of volatility, geopolitical risk and economic uncertainty.
Current day presents a plethora of risks both economic and political; from emerging market credit risk through to south china sea politics.
Oil, like Gold has benefitted from a fall in the USD which has lead to some price recovery, however this does not change the fundamental facts that there is still chronic oversupply.
Long Gold for economic risk hedge, Short Oil for for USD revaluation protection and further oversupply issues.
XAUUSD WEEKLY CHART - MAKE IT OR BREAK ITWith all the NIRP's and ZIRP's flying around in an economy based off fraud and debt, this was expected, and now we have the start of the technical indicators to back it up :)
With the history of miners leading the commodity in moves, I'm expecting gold to make a move higher (see GDX charts):
- We again have the bull flag being made, with any bearish attempt to "fill the gap" back down to 1180 being stunted 1200
- Our 'medium' channel from 2013 has been broken, re-tested, and remained bullish
- We are at out 23% fib retracement (same that GDX just broke through) from our big move down from our ATH in 2011
- We are also one move away from recent solid price action (black horizontal lines), which was similar in the GDX as well
- If these are able to break tomorrow, 1300-1400 is our very short term goal
- After 1415 you only have 1485, and 1568-1600 as price action areas, which is a very nice, large gap to be filled
Feel free to comment with questions or ideas :)
Happy Trading!
XAUUSD DAILY CHART - MAKE IT OR BREAK ITWith all the NIRP's and ZIRP's flying around in an economy based off fraud and debt, this was expected, and now we have the start of the technical indicators to back it up :)
- Just as the GDX, we have a beautiful parabola, followed by an attempt to go to 1180, which was rejected by the bulls
- This creates the bull flag / pennant that was see now, which was just broken out of to the upside
- By finishing this day (April 11th) above the 23% fib retracement, I believe we have invalidated any head and shoulders pattern, as the left shoulder failed to do this
- This is vital, for if we drop lower from here, that is a classic Head and Shoulders pattern, which would launch us to 1180 no problem, so this is why it is a "make it or break it" time for gold ...
- We are out of our 'middle tier' channel, and back into a smaller and much weaker channel
- This leaves me with some concerns but the same thing applies as to the GDX;
- If it can break and hold above this channel and price action of 1270, that's when we should see the confirmation of a bull market, short term at the very least
Feel free to comment with questions or ideas :)
Happy Trading!
Rough Rice RR1! Longterm Call As we are on the brink of the next cyclical recession food security has become more of a concern than ever. One can see the inverse correlation that rice has exhibited over the last 15 years being an extremely inelastic good as it is the most consumed grain in the world. In the last 14 years the value of this commodity future has gone up over 250% versus the most widely used currency in the history of mankind, what does that say about the purchasing power of the dollar? The system will crack, inelastic sustenance commodities will experience hyperinflation. The last chart I made on Rice in early 2015 I claimed that it would bottom out at 9.2 and I was off by .1. Let's see how it goes, best of luck to all! And remember this market is relatively low volume and has extremely violent gaps so be careful with using leverage.
Regards
Rahul Andra
Again a bitcoin fractal.That is where I think we are now.
We`re in a quite similar fractal of the "small" rally of 2012.
As you might remember, that rally took place a few months before the halving, after a long bearmarket,
a situation strangely similar to where we are now.
My prediction:
I think we´ll slowly rise back to 450, build a plateau at 450-500 and stay there stable for a few months.
Then we might see a rally unfold, if bitcoin continues to do fractals.
It would fit also the upcoming halving in the middle of 2016.
However, for that, the potentially upcoming economic crisis needs to fully unfold, with lots of capital flowing into bitcoin. The chances for that are not so slim.
USDCAD Testing 12 year high of $1.40So the disappointing Core Consumer Price Index (MoM) print earlier has sent the USDCAD hurtling towards the psychological price of $1.40 which hasn’t been broken since August 2003! In addition to this, it’s no secret that the tumbling oil price has been a contributory factor to CAD weakness. Due to the strength of the resistance, I would expect a pull back to $1.283 before any further gains.
The latest Canadian Consumer Price Index print print can be viewed her, if any of you are looking for something riveting to read...
bit.ly
INVENTORY TO SALES RATIO - A RISK INDICATOR TO WATCHInventories to Sales Ratio has been rapidly ascending recently above its usual levels of 1.3. It means that Inventories have been actually growing at a higher pace than Sales over the last several months!
Savvy traders would be interested in watching this ratio as a potential risk indicator of the US economy.
If the ratio continues to ascend at the current phase, it will tell us that a significant fall in business sales is happening, and/or a large excess of inventories is being accumulated in the US economy – both factors are signs of a broader economic slowdown.
Why I think Oil will fall another 6%. The Economic recovery in the west is important especially with weakening demand in Europe and a fragile US recovery dependent on consumer spending and business confidence. Oil at $40 a barrel will be a welcome relief, even $30 a barrel is not unreasonable seeing in 2002 that was where Oil sat. Frankly $100 a barrel was too much.
