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Economiccrisis

Mortgage Delinquencies About to Skyrocket"Financial Advisors" tend to be clueless about the overall health of the market and the economy. The "advisor" profession is laced with toxic narratives about "your goals" and "focusing on the long term" and "staying invested". They're clueless as to what is going on. As the recession sets in and the market collapses, we will see mortgage delinquencies soar. Remain patient, refrain from buying ANYTHING with a debt component (ie homes / cars). We will soon see a credit freeze, as banks and lenders dump their assets and borrowers fail to meet their loan covenants. This is the real deal, folks. Stay low and move fast!
FRED:DRSFRMACBSLong
by ChiefMacro
75: China Export Analysis - Fundamental and Technical OverviewThe European Union (EU) and the United States have increased scrutiny and imposed higher tariffs on Chinese imports, particularly electric vehicles and strategic materials like gallium and germanium. These measures are designed to protect domestic industries from what are perceived as unfair trade practices and subsidies by the Chinese government. Additionally, the EU's new Critical Raw Material Act and battery regulations aim to reduce dependency on Chinese imports and secure supply chains for critical technologies. These regulatory changes have led to a noticeable decline in Chinese exports to the EU. In response, China has imposed export restrictions on key materials, further straining trade relations. These geopolitical tensions and trade barriers have significantly impacted China's export figures. Currently, China's export trend is showing a downward trajectory. The export figures have struggled to reach the $350 billion mark and are at risk of dropping significantly lower, potentially towards the $140 billion level. Chart Overview: Trend Line: A clear downtrend is visible on the chart, with lower highs and lower lows indicating sustained pressure. Support and Resistance Levels: Resistance: The $350 billion level is the upcoming resistance. That has not yet been reached. Support: Immediate support is observed around $250 billion. A break below this level could accelerate the downward move towards $140 billion. Will We Reach $350 Billion or Go Lower? Given the current economic and geopolitical landscape, it seems still likely that China will reach the $350 billion export mark in the near term because there has not been a really corrective wave in the chart. But the downward pressure from increased tariffs, export restrictions, and the EU's push for supply chain independence are significant hurdles. If these conditions persist, a further decline is a plausible scenario.
ECONOMICS:CNEXP
by SeventyFive-Invest
Investors' Holy Grail - The Business/Economic CycleThe business cycle describes how the economy expands and contracts over time. It is an upward and downward movement of the gross domestic product along with its long-term growth rate. The business cycle consists o f 6 phases/stages : 1. Expansion 2. Peak 3. Recession 4. Depression 5. Trough 6. Recovery 1) Expansion : Sectors Affected: Technology, Consumer discretion Expansion is the first stage of the business cycle. The economy moves slowly upward, and the cycle begins. The government strengthens the economy: Lowering taxes Boost in spending. - When the growth slows, the central bank reduces rates to encourage businesses to borrow. - As the economy expands, economic indicators are likely to show positive signals, such as employment, income, wages, profits, demand, and supply. - A rise in employment increases consumer confidence increasing activity in the housing markets, and growth turns positive. A high level of demand and insufficient supply lead to an increase in the price of production. Investors take a loan with high rates to fill the demand pressure. This process continues until the economy becomes favorable for expansion. 2) Peak : Sector Affected : Financial, energy, materials - The second stage of the business cycle is the peak which shows the maximum growth of the economy. Identifying the end point of an expansion is the most complex task because it can last for serval years. - This phase shows a reduction in unemployment rates. The market continues its positive outlook. During expansion, the central bank looks for signs of building price pressures, and increased rates can contribute to this peak. The central bank also tries to protect the economy against inflation in this stage. - Since employment rates, income, wages, profits, demand & supply are already high, there is no further increase. - The investor will produce more and more to fill the demand pressure. Thus, the investment and product will become expensive. At this time point, the investor will not get a return due to inflation. Prices are way higher for buyers to buy. From this situation, a recession takes place. The economy reverses from this stage. 3) Recession : Sector Affected : Utilities, healthcare, consumer staples - Two consecutive quarters of back-to-back declines in gross domestic product constitute a recession. - The recession is followed by a peak phase. In this phase economic indicators start melting down. The demand for the goods decreased due to expensive prices. Supply will keep increasing, and on the other hand, demand will begin to decline. That causes an "excess of supply" and will lead to falling in prices. 4) Depression : - In more prolonged downturns, the economy enters into a depression phase. The period of malaise is called depression. Depression doesn't happen often, but when they do, there seems to be no amount of policy stimulus that can lift consumers and businesses out of their slumps. When The economy is declining and falling below steady growth, this stage is called depression. - Consumers don't borrow or spend because they are pessimistic about the economic outlook. As the central bank cuts interest rates, loans become cheap, but businesses fail to take advantage of loans because they can't see a clear picture of when demand will start picking up. There will be less demand for loans. The business ends up sitting on inventories & pare back production, which they already produced. - Companies lay off more and more employees, and the unemployment rate soars and confidence flatters. 5) Trough : - When economic growth becomes negative, the outlook looks hopeless. Further decline in demand and supply of goods and services will lead to more fall in prices. - It shows the maximum negative situation as the economy reached its lowest point. All economic indicators will be worse. Ex. The highest rate of unemployment, and No demand for goods and services(lowest), etc. After the completion, good time starts with the recovery phase. 6) Recovery : Affected sectors: Industrials, materials, real estate - As a result of low prices, the economy begins to rebound from a negative growth rate, and demand and production are both starting to increase. - Companies stop shedding employees and start finding to meet the current level of demand. As a result, they are compelled to hire. As the months pass, the economy is once in expansion. - The business cycle is important because investors attempt to concentrate their investments on those that are expected to do well at a certain time of the cycle. - Government and the central bank also take action to establish a healthy economy. The government will increase expenditure and also take steps to increase production. After the recovery phases, the economy again enters the expansion phase. Safe heaven/Defensive Stocks - It maintains or anticipates its values over the crisis, then does well. We can even expect good returns in these asset classes. Ex. utilities, health care, consumer staples, etc. ("WE WILL DISCUSS MORE IN OUR UPCOMING ARTICLE DUE TO ARTICLE LENGTH.") It's a depression condition for me that I couldn't complete my discussion after spending many days in writing this article. However, I will upload the second part of this article that will help investors and traders in real life. This article took me a long time to write. I'm not expecting likes or followers, but I hope you will read it. @Money_Dictators
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NASDAQ:AAPLEducation
by Money_Dictators
69
A Look at the Turkish EconomyAs we all know, the increase in foreign currency increases the general product prices extraordinarily, as it increases the input costs. The rise of the foreign exchange is a phenomenon that a country does not want. Every country aims to keep the exchange rate stable. But for some reason, Turkey came out of these countries. As can be seen from this chart, from 2006 to 2020, Turkey continued to print money with a certain pattern. This is an acceptable factor for each country under certain conditions. The money supply, which increased with a trend of 23 degrees, started to rise more sharply after 2020, and especially after March 2021, the trend reached 53 degrees. This trend change is a clear indication of how fast the printing of money is. Therefore, as the money supply increases, there is a natural depreciation of the currency (Orange line shows the rising Dollar against the Turkish Lira). In the same period, interest rates were reduced, as can be seen from the black line. By lowering interest rates, what a country normally aims at is to create consumption demand by reducing borrowing costs. Therefore, the demand for consumption has increased, and with it, demand inflation has arisen. Meanwhile, printing money decreased the value of the Turkish Lira (the exchange rate rose), which increased the input costs. The increase in input costs was reflected in the sales prices of the products. Therefore, inflation was fueled by both demand and foreign currency. It will be impossible to know why the Turkish government did this, why it deliberately ignited inflation, which no economist can explain. If you have an idea, you can write it in the comments. Thanks.
ECONOMICS:TRM2
by YavuzAkbay
1
The Resistance Hit 4th Time - SPX500 Saw the red line! It is now hit the 4th time by the market. Although oil has come down from 130 to 80 USD per barrel giving some relief to the oil-dependent economies and inflation is also in a downtrend, the problem is worse and deeper. This alarming deeper problem is US debt which is now 137% of the GDP. Imagine it was hardly 67% in 2008 during the financial crunch. If things were good, why did this debt rise to 137%. Debt is good for industries till it remains fuel for growth. But when it becomes fuel for existing debt it is really problematic.
SP:SPXLong
by starringinvestors
USD Index Recession Depression and TransgressionGood Morning All , It has been a long while since I posted, but it has also been along time since I have been active in trading as well. i squared off my positions and just been speculating and watching the craziness that continues to unfold. For some of the OG Traders out there you might have come across my stuff in the past, but for some of the new guys new to trading what a time to be alive. To re-itterate some points I have made in the past I am not political I consider myself a centralist with right sided tendencies. (because of my views about business and taxes) . this post will be rudimentary in aspects for people that live here in the US. So if not interested then skip the italicized section. okay, what we have here is the dollar index, and its basically a measure of strength of the US' economy against 8 other countries. Now, I live in the US and here is a very basic political breakdown of our political system republicans- it's the political conservatives of the country and business liberal. Meaning that they hold traditional values when it comes to policies and encourages borrowing for business growth and borrowing for political agenda. Democrats- it's the political liberals of the country and business conservative. Meaning they hold progressive policy values and encourage high taxation to fund their political agenda. We need both in the US to keep the balance to much right sided-ness we fall into a communists like state and too much left sided nss and we fall into the hands of socialism. so a health mix of both is needed to keep us in check. Now, the world is coming into hard times because of the US' liberal fiduciary policies as of late and now we are trying to reel that back. The US is the world reserve and will continue to be for the foreseeable future, and the reason i say that is I don't see the world entrusting China to report the truth of the Yuan's value if it were to become the reserve currency of the world. I know a lot of people think that china is the next super power to rise and become the reserve status of the world, but until they become more transparent i don't see it happening. The only country I see rising to take that spot is the UK. They have the second largest FREE trade economy of the world, and could potentially return to the reserve status. The EU stands a chance, but I don't see Germany being able to support the world economy that would be required to make the EU possible. Basically, which demon do you want to deal with, because none of the options are ideal. Now, if some of the EU countries that takes from the Euro really step their game up and produced for more the euro instead of take then they could become a viable option too, but as far as china I just don't see the world entrusting them to hold that type of power. I mean their housing market is currently a Ponzi Scheme, and their having to use military force to keep citizens from breaking into the banks to get their money back out. The US' SEC a year or two ago placed harsh restrictions and banned a lot of Chinese companies from the US open tradable market, because they were cooking their books and inflating earnings and deflating expenses, and rumor has it that the chinese government knew about it and allowed it, to continue to boost their economy via foreign monies. Back to the Dollar, the Dollar index has an inverse relationship with the NASDAQ, S&P 500, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Why? Because, the DXY is a visual representation of the current status of the Economy. When the dollar was in the 8X's the last two years times were good, people were making a lot of monies while spending and living the good life? Why? because the Fed made money cheap. So, the cost of doing business was cheap profits were just as large as the margins. So, business operations got fat in the sense of a CEO or C-Suite personnel needing 2-3 assistants and having bean counters to double check the primary bean counters. Now, Powell has consistently held to his target inflation rate of 2% its all over the FED's website and echoed in his speeches. which is the reason of his 75 base point interest rate hikes. What I see coming is another Great Depression. Because for many of the technical traders in the world there is more to a company than numbers on a chart. Investors large and small make monetary contributions to these companies in return for returns. well during COVID-19 money flooded the market and business were able to continue to run. Since the beginning of COVID I knew a lot of businesses were in trouble because they were publicly reporting inflated numbers to the SEC, and the SEC TOOK THEM?!?! So it looked like these businesses were doing way better than they actually were, and now their board of directors and shareholders expect them to continue to run at that level. Now, that money is drying up and these businesses are about to lose their funding from both ends. On one end their investors (already starting) are squaring off their positions. So, one way to prop up the facade of success is to do massive layoffs to trim the fat. Run the business very lean. That doesn't boost revenue that really just stabilizes the load. putting a plug in a hole on a boat as it were. These massive layoffs lead to lower GDP and two consecutive reports of shrinkage equals a recession. The Fed Continues to raise interest rates making the dollar expensive to do business. When someone looks at a business' 10K and finds their balance sheet or earnings they will see massive amounts of debt. this debt is typically owed to a major lending institution. These loans, though not designed for the purpose, they are used to fund operations and growth. good businesses have cash on hand to pay off loans in times of hardship and inexperienced leaders are frivolous with the tax-free money. When this money becomes more expensive businesses can no longer afford to take loans out and are forced to remain the same, shrink, sell-out to a competitor, or go out of business all together. part of the problem is that it now keeps people working because they lost 10-12 years out of their 401k due to the stock market correction, students coming out of college with massive amounts of student loan debt and are forced to take a job making 10-15 dollars an hour with student loan payments being around 300-1000$ a month which will lead to defaults because they cant afford to live alone, and are going to move back in with their parents. and hopefully their parents are not retired, because if so they're going to have to help their family with utility bills and mortgages and care less about their student loans. much less if their parents don't make the cut at work due to the layoffs. Now, this causes a major problem because those once employed people are now jobless and can no longer keep their payments to their mortgage company. And now these mortgage backed securities are going to start imploding on the people that bought them and repeat 2008. This is just the inherit fallout of these type of securities. I mean i understand their purpose, which is used to get back money to keep the velocity of money up, but no matter the credit score if a person loses their job and can not find work then payments are going to be missed. this will ultimately lead to a depression. what saved us last time from a depression was the US " FOUND " weapons of mass destruction and we launched an all-out attack on Iraq. and then when we finally "FOUND" said weapons we then decided to focus our attention on the people that attacked us on 9/11. But, this is not the only time the US used war to re-bound out of a depression, WW1 aka the great war ramped up our economy and we were magically out of a depression and then shortly aft Dub Dub 1 we found ourselves in Dub Dub 2. the pattern is repeated over and over in our history. the cold war got us out of the stink in the mid 80's with the cold war, and gulf war in the 90s. will the US find Hillary Clinton's Emails in China and now we go to war with china? Who Knows. (this was sarcasm) I think we need a business savvy executive whether man or woman to be elected as president and get the country back on the rails. We need good monetary policy in place, we need to support small business here in the states to keep big businesses from becoming monopolies and drive prices down. we need more diversity in the economy. Because a more diverse economy = a cheaper place to live. with all of that being said I forsee dollar to continue to get more and more expensive with the minimum being 12X.xx, median being in the 14X.xx and the maximum being somewhere around 15X.xx. I see interest rates forcing everyone's hand to show what their hiding. I see weak businesses going under, smart strong businesses staying afloat and will grow exponentially when the storm passes. another potential thing is that the FED might think they over extended and might bump interest rates down or keep them the same for a brief time (this is a temporary fix), but I still see them raising rates to get back to 2%. this is not financial advice, but my play book is to continue to sit on liquid cash and I would say a good indicator for me to jump back in is to see 4 or 5 maybe even 6 Fed meetings where the interest rates remain unchanged or begin to drop consecutively. So gather all your pennies, begin to live lean, and when the fed begins to keep interest rates unchanged begin to look at who is still walking around Wall St. and think about investing with them. i do think if the US votes with their intelligence and not their emotions we can avoid all of what I wrote. and I truly do hope I am wrong! @TayFx crazy to see man how two years ago we were called perma-bears and crazy and now we look like Wall St. prophets. LOL Hope all is well bud! HMU when you get a chance!
TVC:DXY
by ARegularGuy
Gold ready economic crisisThe inflation data and with the rise in interest rates we are seeing a USD strengthening with everyone but a recession has not yet been declared in the United States, something that could change everything especially for GOLD, which is the main refuge of value in the face of a crisis, we saw it in 2008 that exceeded maximums with the economic crisis, we saw it in 2020 with the health crisis exceeding maximums again. Now there is possibly a new economic crisis and right now we are experiencing the same as in 2008 with several layoffs in large companies and with quite high inflation, Powell said that it did not matter if real estate and the stock market fell, what matters to him is inflation .
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Ed_Ale
Real Estate Assets Could Fall 30% or more - are you preparedThe excesses of the past 8+ years have driven RE prices to very high levels. Simple price channels and Standard Deviation channels suggest the unwinding of this bubble may see Real Estate price levels collapse -25% to -30% or more over the next 12+ months. The US Fed, in an effort to combat inflation, will likely raise rates again - pushing sellers even further into an effort to DUMP assets before buyers are able to react to the shifting market climate. My interpretation of what is happening is consumers are pulling away from making big purchases as global assets bubbles are unwinding. The US asset bubbles have just started this process - unlike China and other areas. I see the Fed bursting another RE bubble and sending price levels far lower. Get ready, the fun is just starting (again).
RShort
by BradMatheny
2
Is the Evergrande crisis over?The looming collapse of China Evergrande Group (HKG:3333), the world’s most indebted property developer, has roiled financial markets for months, threatening a contagion with far-reaching implications on China and the wider economy. In the early months since Evergrande’s financial crisis came to light, Beijing stayed mum on the issue, although the People’s Bank of China pumped billions of yuan in liquidity in what was seen as an attempt to quell liquidity concerns. Over this time, Evergrande’s stock price slipped 95%, from ~25HKD to ~1.5HKD, where it has stagnated for all of 2022. Evergrande’s massive debt pileup Evergrande, once China’s second-largest real estate developer, is drowning in more than $300 billion in debts to suppliers, contractors, creditors and investors. The company’s crisis partly stemmed from the introduction of Beijing’s "three red lines" rule in 2020 that made it harder for developers to seek bank financing to fund their projects. Another Lehman Brothers moment The large exposure of Chinese banks like Minsheng Bank, Ping An Bank and Everbright Bank to Evergrande prompted many financial watchers to predict that Evergrande's debt crisis could extend beyond China’s property and financial markets, warning that it could spill over to the global markets similar to the Lehman Brothers collapse that resulted in the 2008 global financial crisis. These fears intensified as Evergrande missed payments on a number of onshore bonds. The world’s three major credit rating agencies have already declared the developer to be in default after missing on its bond interest payments late last year. However, some analysts have played down concerns of Evergrande being the next “Lehman moment,” as they expect Beijing’s policymakers to prevent the crisis from being a systemic risk. Beijing steps in to limit fallout To minimize the potential impact of Evergrande’s looming collapse, Beijing has stepped up its efforts, but without a state-led bailout in sight. Back in October, the Chinese central bank said the risk of Evergrande’s liabilities spilling over to the country’s financial sector is "controllable,” while confirming reports that relevant government agencies and local governments have been carrying out risk disposal and resolution work to mitigate a potential contagion. In recent weeks, a number of news outlets reported that some banks in China have lowered mortgage rates, offered subsidies and allowed developers to access their funds on escrow in an attempt to revive the housing market. Beijing also started urging state-owned developers to acquire some projects of troubled builders to help ease the sector’s liquidity crunch. Fitch Ratings recently said Chinese developers are poised to see more small-scale mergers and acquisitions and the impact on buyers’ leverage are predicted to be small "as they select projects with promising returns." Light at the end of the tunnel It may take months or years for the property sector to recover as developers continue to struggle with a cash crunch that prevents them from meeting their debt obligations. However, with Beijing’s subtle approach in reviving the property market, Evergrande’s recovery may be drawing near. In February, new home prices in 100 cities in China rose for the first time in two months, further recovering from the slump in November when prices contracted for the first time since 2015. Policy reforms could encourage home-buying this year as the government included the healthy development of the real estate sector in its government work report unveiled by Premier Li Keqiang over the weekend. Li said authorities will seek to promote the commercial housing market and stabilize house prices this year. Foreign investors that purchase bonds and other securities from Chinese builders should closely monitor developments surrounding Beijing’s policies for the sector.
HKEX:3333
by BlackBull_Markets
EuroStoxx bearish ideaWell, the situation in Europe isn't pretty. Let me highlight a couple of issues. Slowed economic growth The Euro zone had registered slowed manufacturing growth way before COVID19 hit. The pandemic just hit the nail on the head. The region is now experiencing an economic slow down compared to the 2020 summer season and this is going to affect the recovery in Europe. Second wave of Covid19 cases It's already officially that the continent is in the second wave of the pandemic. Lockdowns will further hurt supply chains in the region. However, a full scale lockdown may not happen as governments focus on specific localised targeting. Bars in France have been closed and Madrid is in lockdown (sort of). Trade issues including Brexit First, Europe is in the middle of a trade spat with the US. Well, Donald Trump has bully tendencies and hopes to reorganise the world trade order. Whether it's working for the US on not, we'll look into it on another day. However, it is hurting EU exports to the US. Exports to China, Europe's second largest export market, are not growing as expected as China has sort of refused to open up their market as agreed in an agreement between the two parties. China still has protectionist tendencies of it's steel and agricultural industries which the EU may be targeting. This is just a few of the factors I'm following up with in Europe. Technically, this index is slowly losing momentum after failing to recover fully from the February drop. On the Monthly chart, the 0.618 level is acting as a strong support. It has been ranging in the lower timeframes hoping not to slip lower. However, data may not give investors enough reason to hold on to the equity markets. We could see lower prices soon with the grim data. ECB intervention may stop this slip, but my money is on 3100 target 🎯.
FOREXCOM:EU50Short
by GrizzlyBearBee
BITCOIN PRICE REJECTS $6.9K? WHAT NEXT ?The price of bitcoin has shown a strong surge over the past weeks as price rallied from $3750 to $6900, however we see a rejection at the $6900 level which confirms a resistance. The daily chart is showing a clear rejection which is not a bullish perspective to look for, since price wasn't able to break $6900. We could be looking at lower support levels below at $5600-5800, $4750-$4900 and $4250-$4400. These levels are substantially higher timeframe support levels which could provide potential long opportunities, if price rejects these levels spotted on the Daily chart then BTCUSD could be heading lower ! The price of bitcoin lost an uptrend, which indicates that there's more downwards momentum to come . Risk Warning : The risk of loss in trading Foreign Exchange (FOREX) can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in the light of your financial condition. Goodluck !
GEMINI:BTCUSDShort
by Tim298
US Dollar highest against Nepalese Rupee in the history of FOREXThe ongoing COVID-19 pandemic crisis has proven to be one of history's biggest market fluctuators wth economies worldwide taking the same hit and businesses scrambling to stay afloat. Where lives and livelihoods are at stake every ticking second, the US has recently started QE (Quantitative Easing) to help the economy brace itself for the drastic negative effect. The FOREX market holds 3 trillion dollars of the average transaction in each and every trading session, but at present the financial market is volatile, swinging as it had never before, leaving price fluctuations unpredictable. As a consequence, the (USD) US dollar hits a record high against the Nepalese Rupee (NPR) in the history of its foreign exchange market(FOREX).
Long
by TheSouthernRock
Boeing BA - Opportunity of a lifetime?Flying from London to Barcelona for 20$? Flying from Berlin to Rome for 15$? Gone have the good old days of flat-rate flights. Travelling has once been a luxury and my impression is, that it will be a luxury again, very very soon. I am not sure if Airlines such as Ryanair, Easyjet, Wizz Air, Scoot, Tigerair and even bigger, national Airlines are going to survive the Corona Virus. In regards to climate change and our nature, Covid-19 may have hit our world at the perfect time. Target for Boeing? 40$ Happy Trading!
NYSE:BAShort
by Thierry88
4
SILVER - XAGUSD - Oh no, don't do that!Silver looking bearish. Escaped out of a either descending triangle or a symmetrical triangle, both are legit. I feel pretty confident to say that silver is heading towards 8.87$. Bitcoin is not a safe haven, Gold is not a safe haven and silver is not a safe haven. EUR with their problems a safe haven? USD printing trillions a safe haven? CHF running into debth with COVID-19 a safe haven? Stocks? There is no safe haven... Happy trading and stay healthy!
OANDA:XAGUSDShort
by Thierry88
4