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Economic Cycles

$AAPL: Structure SurgeryResearch Notes Original Structure: Altering structure for experimental purposes Angle of fib channels that rises from cycle low, has been pushed into the past to the top of first major reaction. blue area resembles the change Reason The the angle of Fibonacci channels which cover the general decline (from perspective of ATH to end of cycle), are adjusted to the angle of the first bear wave of smaller scale. Therefore, when it comes to measurements of opposing forces for working out interference pattern, having this symmetric approach of mapping interconnections is fair.
NASDAQ:AAPL
by fract
META: Testing Alternative Interconnection TypeResearch Notes Given expression like this: Fractal Corridors can be used for horizontal perspective of the same pattern manifestation. Alternative frames of reference exposes how historic swings of various magnitude in some way wire the following price dynamics. www.tradingview.com helps to seek a matching commonality in angles of trends which gives a hint how structure evolves in multi-scale perspective. I use both when it comes to working with complex waves and making interconnections through fibonacci ratios. To define emerging wave's limits (probable amplitude), I'll test classic rule of Support/Resistance shift in fibs. (When resistance becomes support or vice versa) By theory it means a trendline can also shift like that. In our case this can be applied as: Fibocnacci Structure:
NASDAQ:META
by fract
2
SPK : Does history repeat itself?Hello friends🙌 ✅You see that once a pattern was formed and after the resistance was broken, we had a good growth. ✅Now the same pattern has formed again and the price is in the accumulation phase. ✅We have to see if history repeats itself and if the buyers support the price again or not. ✅We have obtained important support areas for you, so that if it falls, you can buy in steps and if the pattern breaks, you can buy in steps right here, of course with capital and risk management. 🔥Follow us for more signals🔥 *Trade safely with us*
Long
by TheHunters_Company
Beach Energy (BPT.ASX): Long-Term Compression Near Historical Su📚 Description This monthly chart of Beach Energy (BPT.ASX) reveals a multi-decade compression pattern forming near historical support levels. With price currently at 1.140 AUD, the setup invites a macro-technical perspective for long-term positioning. 🔍 Key Observations • Historical Range: Since 1991, BPT has oscillated between deep cyclical lows and explosive rallies, often tied to oil price cycles and domestic energy policy. • Compression Zone: Price action since 2011 shows tightening volatility, forming a descending triangle with support around 1.10–1.15 AUD. • Volume Profile: Recent monthly candles show declining volume, suggesting accumulation rather than distribution. • Oscillators:• Momentum indicators (values: 50.97, 44.32, 15.76) show divergence — a potential early signal of reversal. • Red and blue lines suggest a crossover setup forming, historically a precursor to trend shifts. 🌏 Macroeconomic Angle Australia’s energy sector is undergoing a structural shift, and Beach Energy sits at the intersection of several key trends: 🛢️ Oil Price Trends • Global oil prices remain volatile, but long-term supply constraints and geopolitical tensions (e.g., Middle East, Russia) support elevated price floors. • BPT’s historical rallies often coincide with Brent crude surges — a macro tailwind worth monitoring. 🚢 LNG Export Dynamics • Australia is one of the world’s top LNG exporters, and demand from Asia (Japan, South Korea, China) continues to grow. • Beach Energy’s exposure to domestic gas and LNG infrastructure positions it to benefit from rising export volumes and favorable pricing contracts. • Government policy shifts toward energy security and decarbonization may further support domestic producers. 📈 Inflation & Rate Cycles • As central banks pivot from tightening to neutral or easing, energy equities often outperform due to their inflation-hedging characteristics. • BPT’s low valuation and asset base make it a potential beneficiary of capital rotation into hard assets. --- 🧠 Educational Insight This chart is a textbook example of long-term compression in commodity-linked equities. Traders and investors can use this to: • Understand how macro cycles (e.g., oil prices, energy demand) reflect in equity price structure. • Apply monthly timeframe analysis to filter out noise and identify strategic entry zones. • Combine volume, oscillator divergence, and price structure for higher conviction setups. 🛠️ Potential Strategy • Watch for breakout above descending resistance (~1.20 AUD) with volume confirmation. • Risk management: Stop below historical support (~1.05 AUD). • Target zones: 1.40 AUD (swing), 1.80 AUD (macro breakout). Not financial advice.
ASX:BPT
by Parsaj
Nasdaq US100 Wave 3 Expansion Toward 31,606 in PlayNasdaq US100 has completed a significant wave cycle with a confirmed wave 1 in the broader Elliott Wave structure. Following this, price underwent a corrective wave 2 that extended from the $22,237 supply zone down to $16,334, marking the conclusion of the previous cycle’s correction. This structure now signals the initiation of a fresh upward impulse, setting the stage for a powerful wave 3 advance. The emergence of wave 3 will gain full confirmation once price successfully breaks above the external supply zone, reclaiming $22,237. If this breakout occurs with sustained momentum, the wave 3 projection targets an expansion toward $31,606, which aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension from the prior cycle. This forthcoming rally is anticipated to unfold in a five-subwave format, indicative of a high-momentum bullish leg. As long as price action remains above the key support at $16,334, the bullish cycle remains valid. All eyes should now be on the breakout structure and volume profile around $22,237, as it represents the gateway to a much broader impulsive move.
CFI:US100Long
by weslad
6
BITCOIN 2025 TOP PREDICTION!This chart represents the M2 Money Supply / BTCUSD correlation with an 84-day delay. You can see that the M2 Money Supply has formed a double top (with a lower high) in late September. The price of bitcoin tops out 525–532 days after the halving in every cycle. What does this mean? In my opinion, bitcoin will continue to follow the direction of M2 in a highly correlated manner. This would mean that BTC's top is only 2 months away. What price will bitcoin top? That I'm not entirely sure of yet. The M2 / BTC correlation can be placed in a plethora of different scales. However, it currently looks like the top will be BELOW $200,000. I hope to be proven wrong, but as of right now, bitcoin is following previous cycles perfectly (excluding the fact that we created a new ATH prior the halving, this was because of ETFs). Given diminishing returns (and assuming that "supercycle" is not reached), $135,000 - $190,000 top in late September makes sense.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by CryptoKidCMT
Bitcoin: Interconnections Rewired🏛️ Research Notes Keeping fib channel of the rising trend angles as they've number of times covered well that aspect of cycle texture. The other frame of reference would be with fib channel that covers drop from 2021 ATH to late 2022 bottom. Last bit would be integrating fib channel discovered while ago that connects covid & late 2022 bottoms Together they create a framework that addresses the complexity and makes even the most chaotic price movements seem to be a part of structural narrative.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by fract
BTCUSDT ISHS Breakout with Bullish Pennant ContinuationBTC is holding above a clean neckline breakout from a inverse head and shoulders formation, currently consolidating inside a bullish pennant. A breakout from this range offers continuation potential to $136K and possibly to $168K. Bias remains bullish while price holds above the $114K region. Market Structure • Trend: Bullish continuation • Pattern: Inverse Head & Shoulders + Bullish Pennant • Price Action: Clean breakout and retest of neckline support, followed by tightening consolidation Key Zones • Immediate Demand Zone: $114,000 – $117,000 • Internal Demand Zone: $105,000 – $108,000 • Major Setup Support Zone: $98,000 – $101,000 • Base Support (ISHS Origin): $74,500 – $77,000 • Neckline: $111,700-$113,800 (Confirmed pivot level) Technical Confluence • Volume: Strong candle breakout through neckline, followed by low-volume bullish flag • Price Geometry: ISHS measured move aligns with the final target at $168K • Momentum: Bullish structure maintained with higher lows and reactive demand Entry Plan • Zone: $117,500 – $119,000 • Method: Limit buy on demand retest or breakout retest of $123K • Execution: Swing entry with invalidation below demand base Targets • 🎯 TP1: $136,442 — Pennant measured move • 🎯 TP2: $168,029 — Final ISHS target Invalidation • ❌ SL: Below $110,000 • Reason: Break below ISHS Neckline invalidates bullish thesis in the short term • RRR: Estimated 1:4 depending on execution If this structure aligns with your outlook, feel free to share your thoughts in the comments. You’re also welcome to drop your preferred altcoins for a quick technical review.
Long
by weslad
61
[ TimeLine ] Gold 31 July 2025📆 Today’s Date: Wednesday, July 30, 2025 📌 Upcoming Signal Dates: • July 31, 2025 (Thursday) — Single-candle setup • July 31–August 1, 2025 (Thursday–Friday) — Two-candle combined range 🧠 Trading Outlook & Notes ✅ Gold has recently dropped sharply from 3439 to 3298, and current conditions suggest this bearish momentum may continue. ✅ I’ll be actively trading both the July 31 and July 31–August 1 setups as part of my ongoing strategy testing and live analysis. ✅ This method and timing structure can also be applied to other assets like BTC, the US Index, and various commodities. ⚠️ For those taking a more cautious approach, it’s absolutely okay to skip the single-candle setup on July 31 and wait for the more confirmed 2-day range setup (July 31–August 1). 📋 Execution Guidelines 🔹 Range Identification: • Let the Hi-Lo range of the chosen candle(s) form completely. • Purple lines will mark these ranges on the chart. • After the daily close, charts will be updated to include a 60-pip buffer, Fibonacci zones, and relevant indicators. 🔹 Entry Conditions: • Trades are triggered only if price breaks above/below the full range, including the buffer zone. 🔹 Risk Management – Recovery Logic: • If the Stop Loss is triggered, the trade is exited or switched, and the next valid breakout setup will use a doubled lot size to attempt recovery. 📉📈 Chart Snapshot 🔗 Paste this in TradingView: TV/x/fykxBG6w/ 📌 Stick to the plan, follow the system, and let the chart lead the way. 🛡️ Capital protection comes first — always manage your risk.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by lybeedo
[ TimeLine ] Gold 17 July 2025📆 Today is Wednesday, July 16, 2025 📌 Upcoming Signal Dates: • July 17, 2025 (Thursday) — Single-candle setup • July 17–18, 2025 (Thursday–Friday) — Two-candle combined range 🧠 Trading Plan & Notes ✅ Gold recently moved in a wide range between 3365 to 3282, and by the time this signal is published, we’re seeing signs of a strong reversal. ✅ I will be trading both the July 17 and July 17–18 signals as part of my ongoing live research and strategy development. ✅ The same timeframe and signal approach also applies to other instruments such as BTC, US Index, and several commodity pairs. ⚠️ If you’re feeling cautious or risk-averse, it’s perfectly fine to skip the July 17 single-candle setup and wait for the 2-day range (July 17–18) for added confirmation. 📋 Execution Plan 🔹 Range Formation: • Wait for the Hi-Lo range from the selected candle(s) to fully form. • Ranges will be marked with purple lines on the chart. • After market close, the chart will be updated with 60-pip buffer zones, Fibonacci retracement levels, and supporting indicators. 🔹 Entry Trigger Rule: • Entry only if price breaks out beyond the defined range, including the 60-pip buffer. 🔹 Risk Management – Recovery Strategy: • If Stop Loss (SL) is hit, the trade will be cut/switch, and position size doubled on the next valid breakout signal to aim for recovery. 📉📈 Chart Reference 🔗 Copy & paste into TradingView: TV/x/6x8VJKs1/ 📌 Stay disciplined, trust the process, and let the chart guide your decisions. 🛡️ Manage your risk — protect your capital.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by lybeedo
ETH - Bounce Zones - Nears the End for BULLSHello Fello's ☕ I'm watching Ethereum today and I believe it may be very close to the end of it's bullish cycle. I think what could become likely is an extended altseason, where Bitcoin trades around the same price for some time, and Ethereum increases slightly. Afterwhich smaller altcoins (by marketcap) make random rallies before the beginning of a bearish cycle (which is due, see my previous BTC update). There's an interesting channel here that previously determined bounce zones... I don't believe the channel itself will hold as much value going down, but this zone may be a likely bounce zone - around $3k. Key bounce zones to watch include: I'm not saying it will be this straightforward, but this image demonstrates the power of bounce zones for swing trades: Next update will be when we've lost the first support zone. Until then!
Short
by BlockTechEv
DXY | Timeframe: 1MWith the breakout of the downtrend line drawn since 1985 and its breach in late 2014, the DXY index officially entered a relatively stable upward trend and is currently oscillating within a parallel channel. Although, on the monthly timeframe, it has recently touched the lower boundary of the channel, we can expect at least a rise toward the channel’s midline. However, if the lower support of the channel is broken, a static support around the approximate rate of 88 can be considered a notable support level. Should this support also fail, the long-term downtrend dating back to 1985 would be regarded as the most important support for the DXY index. Meanwhile, moving averages such as the MA50, MA100, and other longer-period moving averages serve as dynamic supports along the way. It is also worth mentioning that currently reaching the 120 level is considered an ideal target for the DXY index, and ultimately, it is by breaking this resistance zone that the index can reach its “Utopia”. --------- I will try to continuously update this analysis of the TOTAL symbol according to market changes and developments. Also, I welcome reading your critiques and comments, so don’t forget to leave a comment!
INDEX:DXYLong
by Neomway
Crypto Total Market Cap (TOTAL) | 1WThe crypto market cap represented by the symbol TOTAL can be considered the most important index for analyzing the cryptocurrency market, although I believe that analyzing Bitcoin itself, given its strong positive correlation with the TOTAL index, would yield similar results. In the attached image, the red line actually indicates the overall resistance level of the symbol, and the drawn parallel channel illustrates the current upward trend of the TOTAL symbol, which is now on the verge of encountering its round resistance at 4 trillion dollars. While we should expect a correction around this level, breaking through the 4 trillion dollar resistance could likely lead to a market cap of 6 to 7 trillion dollars in the next phase. On the other hand, with support at 2.4 trillion dollars based on the 100-week SMA on the weekly timeframe, the 750 billion dollar level—marked by a green zone in the image—can still be considered the most important long-term market support, even before the fifth halving. I will try to continuously update this analysis of the TOTAL symbol according to market changes and developments. Also, I welcome reading your critiques and comments, so don’t forget to leave a comment!
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by Neomway
GBPUSD Elliott Wave Insight Bounce Should Fail Into Support ZoneThe GBPUSD is trading in higher high sequence from 9.22.2022 low in weekly. The bounce is corrective Elliott Wave sequence & expect further upside. It favors pullback in proposed 7 swings from 7.01.2025 high & extend into 1.3162 – 1.2898 area, while below 7.23.2025 high. It should find buyers into extreme area for next leg higher in daily or at least 3 swings bounce. In 4-hour, it started correcting lower from 7.01.2025 high. It ended W at 1.3362 low of 7.16.2025 & X at 1.3589 high of 7.23.2025 each in 3 swings. Below X high, it favors downside in Y in 3 swings as it broke below 7.16.2025 low, expecting into extreme area. Within W, it ended ((a)) at 1.3523 low, ((b)) at 1.3620 high & ((c)) at 1.3362 low. Above there, it placed ((a)) at 1.3486 high, ((b)) at 1.3371 low & ((c)) as X connector at 1.3589 high. The double correction unfolds in 3-3-3 structure, which will complete, when current bounce fails below 7.23.2025 high to new low into extreme area. It ended ((a)) of Y into 0.618 – 0.764 Fibonacci extension area of W & expect 3 or 7 swings bounce in ((b)). Below X high, it placed ((a)) of Y at 1.3305 low & favors bounce in ((b)) in 3 or 7 swings against 7.23.2025 high. Within ((a)), it ended (i) at 1.3528 low, (ii) at 1.3563 high, (iii) at 1.3413 low, (iv) at 1.3543 high & (v) at 1.3305 low. Above there, it favors bounce in (a) of ((b)) and expect small upside before it should pullback in (b). The next pullback in (b) should stay above 1.3305 low choppy price action before continue upside in (c). Ideally, ((b)) can bounce between 1.3413 – 1.3481 area as 0.382 – 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of ((a)) before continuing lower. Wave ((b)) bounce expect to fail below 1.3591 high before extending lower in ((c)) into 1.3162 – 1.2898 to finish double correction. Because of higher high in daily since September-2022 low, it should find buyers in extreme area to resume higher. It expects sideways to higher until FOMC event followed by selloff, while bounce fail below 7.23.2025 high. We like to buy the pullback into extreme area for next leg higher or at least 3 swings reaction.
by Elliottwave-Forecast