Is a massive correction for alt tokens about to print?This is a short term forecast affecting anything inside the TOTAL2 market cap. That is the entire crypto market excluding Bitcoin.
The crash is forecast to occur over the next 14-20 days.
In four days from now a “life cross” will print on the above daily chart, it is inevitable.
What is a life cross?
It is when the 50 day simple moving average (blue line) crosses up the 200 day simple moving average (red line)
AND
Price action is above the 200 day simple moving average.
The majority of market participants see this as a positive sign. A green light to enter long positions. However for you lucky what is it now wow 14,000 followers (thank you!), you’ll now know it is not what it seems. Like me you're scientific about all this and look left.
But before we look left, I want you memorise how far TOTAL2 market capital is above the 200 day SMA, about 30%
November 12th, 2023 life cross -10% correction
Price action was 20% above the 200 day SMA
February 18th, 2023 life cross -15% correction
Price action was 15% above the 200 day SMA
February 2020 and May 2020, -70% and -17% corrections
Price action was 57% and 20% above the 200 day sma
April 13th, 2019. Life cross -23% correction
Price action was 34% above the 200 day sma
In summary, the further price action was above the 200 day SMA the harder it dropped.
We can infer that a 15-20% correction should be expected across TOTAL2.
Use this low as an opportunity to collect your favourite token from emotional sellers.
Ww
Economic Cycles
BTC/USD is approaching FIB-EXT highest level 1.618 (95,603)As per the price action the whole crypto market is bullish on bigger time frame
1st probablity
Currently I am expecting BITCOIN will reach its all time High $95,603 on the basis of Fibonacci extension 1.618 tracing from previous impulsive movement in Feb to march Bullish cycle,on the weekly time frame chart bitcoin can take a small retracement towards Imbalance in premium zone ($74,000 to 80,000) If the bulls whales dominate the market, then we can another impulsive bullish cycle toward $120,000
2nd Probability
Price reject from the 1.618 ($95,603) region and took the liquidity of the FVG and Value area high and tap in to the OB in Discount region this will be high gain and long cycle towards $150,000 because retailers and big whales will take a part .
Shiver in Ecstasy at the beauty of FibonacciIt speaks for itself, really.
Halvings, tops, bottoms, etc. can all roughly be located here, within reasonably accurate levels for price & time.
Forecasting:
>> 5.618 (time) - 4/20/2025
also shows next potential bottom fib-levels based on historic durations of bear markets...
Price level I have less certainty for....
>>>4.236 (price) - $245k
this level also coincides with breakout targets for the inverse H&S pattern formed during the 2022/2023 bear market.
Trade Recap: AUDUSD - LONG, 20/11/2024AU Bias Analysis: With a clear bearish leg on the 1D as a result of a bullish dollar, Price has now established a Counter Trend towards 1D EPD. The long entry is in line with the current bullish 1H range and price retraced to the 50% fib retracement level on the initial entry and the 79% fib retracement level on the second entry which is floating at BE.
Grade: High Risk
What I did well or could've done better:
- I was not confident in he initial entry due to multiple factors indicating that price would retrace deeper into 1H discount but I followed the plan and executed regardless of what I thought would happen.
Ethereum time to shine-Swing trading LONGEthereum: Your Time to Shine
BINANCE:ETHUSDT
Ethereum, it’s your moment. You’re in a prime setup for traders, where psychology is playing a crucial role. As Bitcoin consolidates sideways, Ethereum is retesting a key zone, preparing for what could be its true breakout.
This is your time to shine.
Remember, this is not financial advice. Always use a responsible risk management strategy. My trade is targeting the ATH zone, where I plan to take profits and wait for a similar setup to reposition myself strategically
Identifying cyclical opportunities in $HOOD for optionsNASDAQ:HOOD has been in a bull trend since June of 2022, and its price action has also been decently straight forward.
Notes about NASDAQ:HOOD 's price action -
1. Hood's cycle lengths from low to low, in this daily chart are not uniform.
2. However the trends in between the swing lows and highs are secular.
3. Hood has been forming base lows instead of V pattern lows.
How I'm trading $HOOD.
- Since the trend is bullish it is best to stick with call options looking for confirmation of a cycle low to get long.
- When NASDAQ:HOOD starts to form a base after a cyclical downtrend look for momentum to enter
- Once identifying a swing high, exit calls and allow the next secular downtrend to play out
- Each cycle consider if the macro tend for NASDAQ:HOOD is still bullish
- Own NASDAQ:HOOD shares
** The timing band on this chart is a general area based off of previous cycles I'm expecting a base low and will be looking to get long.
USDJPY possible reversal to top of channel.
The USDJPY is currently at the bottom of this long-term channel, we may see a reversal back to the top of the channel to make new highs. To support this reversal prediction we can see a lower low double bottom forming as well as good support for the bottom of the trendline.
CYCLE4 | Halving Cycle MapperQuick post to demonstrate indicator looking at DCA positions to enter into the bear market and out of the bull market zones. Below 'Cheat Sheet' summary developed based on prior cycle mapping posts and historic reviews of Cycle 1 to 3 for BTC.
Brief structure
* Bull Market Start: 40W post Halving
* Bull Market End: 80W post Halving
* Bear Market (Start DCA Positions): 135W post Halving
DCA Entres (including 135W from halving) = x5 @ 12 weekly intervals
CYCLE 4 | Realised Price Oscillator & Overlay - DETAILEDThis post is intended to be used with an earlier interactive companion post, crated to observe BTC's interactions in prior cycles so we can take learnings into cycle 4 with respect to BTC's under and over extensions of the calculated Realised Price.
A quick refresher - What is Realized Price?
Source: www.bitcoinmagazinepro.com
"Bitcoin Realized Price is the value of all bitcoins at the price they were last transacted on-chain, divided by the number of bitcoins in circulation. This gives us the ‘average cost basis’ at which all bitcoins were purchased, which is another way of describing Realized Price."
The above relationships have been incorporated into the Overlay and Oscillator indicators developed for this post to use into DCA accumulation and sell strategies.
Historic Observations
As per the above prior post, we see BTC enters a cycle topping and bottom phase when BTC's 'Realised Price' enters the top red and bottom green over extended regions of the normalised Oscillator and the Red and Blue Extension lines of the Overlay indicators.
We see historically the Oscillator shows the region where price moves with high volatility and other indicators that rely on divergence can extended much further than in other periods in the cycle before a true change in trend is achieved. In 2021 Overlay indicator (RED Line) was breached many times before we put in a significant trend change and the ultimate cycle top was realised at the second peak interestingly at the lower 'Purple' extension line November of that year.
CYCLE 4 Update
Where are we now according to the Realised Price Overlay and Oscillator indicators... Based on historic review of BTC relationship suggests we are about to enter the parabolic region of this cycles (Oscillator is about to enter into the 'RED' zone and Overlay indicator has breached the Purple line and is between the Red and Purple line).
Interestingly this relationship aligns with our cycle mapping posts, looking at BTC historic behavior since cycle bottoms and tops and BTC price targets based on Fibonacci extensions.
CYCLE 4 | Realised Price Oscillator & OverlayThis post is intended as an interactive companion post with a 'to follow' detail post for historic analysis.
I want to explore the relationship with BTC and Realised Price, and historically where we have seen cycle over bought and sold regions based on extensions from calculated realised price values.
What is Realized Price?
Source: www.bitcoinmagazinepro.com
"Bitcoin Realized Price is the value of all bitcoins at the price they were last transacted on-chain, divided by the number of bitcoins in circulation. This gives us the ‘average cost basis’ at which all bitcoins were purchased, which is another way of describing Realized Price."
The above relationships have been incorporated into the Overlay and Oscillator indicators developed for this post to use into DCA accumulation and sell strategies.
I will follow this post with a zoomed version for detailed discussion.
CYCLE 4 | TA - First Log Measured Move HitQuick Update: Cycle 4 BTC price action has hit our first measured move (log scale) which coincides with the 1.272 Fib Extension using the prior cycles technical top and cycle bottom.
This was our first point of interest as BTC approaches our Early Sell Zone region....
MARA entering mark up phase - Target $140We see a clear textbook phases of the market. Mark Up followed by mark down, accumulation, we then see a deviation or spring. The phase after accumulation can be called disbelief, others call it a test pump. Fib Extension has the 1.618 target at around $140 dollars.
SOFI expect short term rally to continue as 9 swingsSOFI favoring upside within the sequence started from August-2024 low and expect small upside to finish the (3) started from 10-September-2024 low before it should pullback in (4). The next pullback in (4) can provide buying opportunity for final push higher before it should correct big against August-2024 low.
FWOG Buying Zone! Major Listings Coming Soon!but its just a fwog
Im giving you a new range of entry.
Currently:
Price: $0.52
MarketCap: 519.0 Million
Holders: 44.7K
1.
I had previously drawn my analysis of fwog with Green rectangle areas are movements of expansion with the RSI peaking above the 70 level as price goes up and brings in more demand.
As buy orders gets exhausted the RSI goes down following the Yellow Arrow.
2.
Point of this post is analyzing a entry zone! Look at the Orange section that is the Demand zone. This is the first full range for FWOG this is the best entry you have in the last few months.
Buy in now before it really takes off, major listings coming, community is growing, normies coming in.
Check the Fib levels: Anything under the 0.5 level is a great buy position.
Buy as close to this section as possible.
Best Entry is Orange Zone: under $0.50
Entry: $0.45 - $0.56
Target: $0.90 -$1.20
Expected Target, this is a High Conviction Meme Coin. First range, prior to that it was doing higher highs and higher lows. So lets see how high we can go!
FWOG has a tendency to have a short range before it takes off again. Days where Solana was red FWOG was up. So if you are expecting a SOL correlation to this coin I would just go ahead and buy.
I have been DCAing in this Zone. I've been in since $0.15 - $0.22 zone.
Follow the X account. Art work is insane. check holder scan we currently at 44K holders. We can easily get to 60K in a week or two.
BTC Top for this cycleI recognized a sort of "pattern" for the ROI of BTC, taking the Halving as a starting point and the cycle top as the end. The ROI seems to be reduced by a factor of 0.22-0.27. For this reason I took the ROI of last cycle, starting from the Halving, and reduced it down to 25%. When I apply it to this cycle, it comes out that the top should be at around 169k.
To be honest, I will sell earlier than that just to reinvest the earnings into something else (Alts if it is Alt Season). Nonetheless, I believe the top is realistic given the circumstances with new institutions coming in and the adoption of BTC and other Cryptocurrencies for institutional portfolios.
$COOKIE reminds me $SUSHI... this will be HUGE.Get ready for an explosive move! The recent patterns in $COOKIE are reminiscent of the incredible CRYPTOCAP:SUSHI rally we witnessed last year. With similar market conditions and strong community backing, I predict a potential rise of over 7000% .
Don't miss out on this opportunity – it's time to ride the wave and see your investments soar to new heights!
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Please do your own research before making any investment decisions."
$COIN Upside ForecastMy base case is NASDAQ:COIN moving to $350-$430 USD during this bull run. If CRYPTOCAP:BTC makes a run past $115-125K, it's possible we see this larger Inverse Head-and-Shoulders pattern play out.
This move takes NASDAQ:COIN upside to approx. $550 USD by mid-2025 to mid-2026.
(then look out below! :)
$TIA: Ready to Breakout After 5 Months of Consolidation?
I think LSE:TIA is finally primed for a breakout after spending the last five months consolidating in the tight $4–$6 range. The lows have been respected multiple times, and we're now seeing the buildup of potential for a significant move.
I’m eyeing an entry at $4.85, which would be a perfect spot to load up if we get a retrace into that zone. If it does dip back there, it's a max bid scenario for me.
However, I'm also prepared to jump in a bit higher if needed, especially if I get left behind as the breakout gains momentum. It's a balancing act between waiting for the perfect entry and not missing out on the move entirely.
Let’s see how it plays out—I'm keeping a close watch!