Economic Cycles
Long trade
2min TF entry
Buyside trade
LND to NY Session AM
11.08 am
Sat 16th Nov 24
5min TF Entry
Entry 3134.53
Profit level 3171.72 (1.19%)
Stop level 3127.09 (0.24%)
RR 5
Reason: Entry based on supply and demand along with liquidity
Greater Fool vs Black SwanOn average, Bitcoin price action time cycles are synchronized in 16 month time frames. Bitcoin halving time cycles are every 4 years. The last 3 halving cycle highs occurred 12 - 16 months afterwards.
The greater fool theory is a speculative investing strategy that suggests that investors can profit by buying overvalued assets and selling them to someone else at an even higher price. When the market bubble eventually bursts, investors who bought assets based on the greater fool theory can lose a lot of money.
Black swan events can have catastrophic consequences, such as affecting the entire global economy. A black swan event is difficult to predict under normal circumstances but in hindsight appears to have been inevitable. One sign of an impending Black swan event is market participants engaging in over leveraged debt margin trading.
What does this all mean? My speculation is that you want to sell Bitcoin now before Black Friday, November 29th 2024 and then buy back before Christmas, December 25th and hold until July 2025 peak. The risk of buying crypto without taking a portion of profits during these high to low cycles is being someone else's exit liquidity and not having the dry powder to buy lower when it drops.
Bitcoin Cycles ChartThis chart highlights the remarkable consistency in Bitcoin's historical cycles, showcasing how price movements align across different cycles in terms of duration (days) and percentage changes. By visualizing these repeating patterns, you can gain valuable insights into Bitcoin's cyclical behavior and potential future trends.
Anticipating a Stronger DollarThe U.S. dollar ( TVC:DXY ) has been strengthening since the 2008 crisis, and I expect this trend to continue. I anticipate the Dollar Index (DXY) could reach a target of 120 by the next election or even sooner.
Comparative Analysis of Bitcoin Cycles and XAU"Comparative Analysis of Bitcoin Cycles and XAU 🚀💎
In this analysis, we explore the relationship between the slopes of lines connecting the lows and highs of Bitcoin cycles and gold. A linear correlation emerges, allowing us to estimate the potential peak of Bitcoin’s fourth cycle. Could this relationship hold true in the future? What’s your take on this pattern?
📉 Watch the full video for detailed insights, and share your thoughts in the comments!"
Alt-season? Bitcoin BTC Dominance past cycles behavior analysis The best way to spot an altseason is looking at the Bitcoin BTC Dominance graph.
On this analysis, of the behavior of the Bitcoin BTC Dominance, I spotted in the graph , what happened on the last two cycles, 2017 and 2021, looking back to the 2013 BTC price top.
In the analysis I spotted three types of events:
All Time High (ATH)
Cycle Bottom
Attempts to break the past cycle's ATH
This brought me some interesting "coincidences" that leads to some insightful predictions.
My conclusion, so far, is that an All Time High breakout is a very important moment to the possible alt season beginning. One thing that should be considered is that the current cycle has some different characteristics as, probably in detail, all of them have. This means that maybe it could take some more time to the alt season start, as it did for the ATH be finally broken.
One thing I did'n mention in the video is that the BTC dominance has broken a theoretical downtrend line. That said, considering the end of the year calendar change that is a mentally important moment, I wouldn't be surprised if the altseason waits till January to pick up.
To be continued...
Arweave 5x in play (+ relative high risk/reward ratio)
This side-by-side chart comparison was crafted to illustrate both the growth potential and risk profile differences between Bitcoin (BTC) and Arweave (AR) over the upcoming months, specifically targeting the period from Q1 2024 to Q1 2025. By juxtaposing these two assets, I aimed to highlight how different growth factors and market dynamics play out in each case, despite both assets potentially participating in a broader bull market trend.
AR/USDT Chart Analysis KUCOIN:ARUSDT
1. Enhanced Growth Factor for AR: 5x
Arweave (AR) exhibits a notable 5x growth factor compared to BTC. This factor reflects AR’s potential to outperform BTC, especially given its relative lower market cap and past explosive moves in bullish cycles.
By emphasizing this factor, I intend to highlight AR as a high-risk, high-reward asset, which could see substantial upside if BTC will further grow and consolidate.
2. Decline Factor in Comparison
AR also comes with a 2.3x decline factor compared to BTC, underscoring its higher volatility. In periods of short term corrections. .
This visual comparison to BTC’s -20% decline serves to remind that while AR may offer amplified gains, it also presents greater downside risks, a trade-off often observed in smaller-cap assets.
3. AR Probable Upper Target by year end 2024-Q1/2025: $49.50
Unlike BTC, AR has a more attainable high target, with $49.50 (a 201.28% increase) labeled as “More Probable by 2024 - Q1/2025.” This optimism is reinforced by AR’s historical ability to rally sharply, especially in bullish conditions.
A green checkmark designates this target as a feasible goal within the forecasted timeframe, setting a visual contrast with BTC’s “Less Probable” 270K target.
BTC/USDT considerations BYBIT:BTCUSD.P
1. BTC Growth Expectations in before year end (2024): $100K
The chart showcases BTC’s historical resilience and expected rally going into Q1 2024. Based on prior movements and momentum analysis, BTC is likely to achieve another 13% growth. This is marked by the first yellow arrow to signal a foundational level for BTC’s next leg up.
2. BTC Less Probable Upper Target for Q1/2025: 270K
I’ve marked an ambitious upper target of $270K (a 201.38% increase) as “Less Probable by 2024 - Q1/2025.” This target acknowledges the potential for explosive growth but also emphasizes that reaching this level is less likely within the specified timeframe, given BTC’s recent trend and market constraints.
This speculative target is denoted with a red “X” to visually temper expectations around such extreme bullish scenarios.
3. Short-term Decline Risks:
As BTC approaches major resistance, there’s a historical correction risk in the near term, estimated at around -20% (from the recent top/ATH). This risk is flagged for potential volatility even as BTC progresses in its bull cycle.
This possible retracement emphasizes caution and suitable risk management.
Comparative Takeaways
Risk and Reward: The comparison visually drives home the point that BTC, as a more established asset, offers relatively stable growth but with a lower ceiling. In contrast, AR presents a far greater potential upside, albeit with significantly higher downside risk, making it a more volatile but rewarding choice.
Growth Trajectory and Market Psychology: The BTC chart highlights a cautious optimism for BTC to hit the 100K milestone, while AR’s more ambitious trajectory in the $49.50 range seems within reach due to its previous high volatility. This distinction suggests AR may outperform BTC in a bull cycle, yet demands a more speculative mindset from investors.
Visual Indicators for Probability: The use of checkmarks, crosses, and color-coded risk boxes was intentional to provide a quick reference on the probability and risk associated with each target. This approach aims to guide viewers in making informed decisions based on both historical data and projected scenarios.
Side note:
If BTC reaches higher prices than projected in 2025 it is likely that altcoins and Arweave will increase prices even significantly higher than current targets presented.
SOLANA should continue rally It broke to new high as expected in idea published month ago. Now it favors pullback in ((iv)) and expect small pullback before it should continue rally in ((v)) to finish 3. It expect few more highs to finish the sequence started from August-2024 low.
qqq predictionbased on previous trends I predict that qqq will fall between these two ranges on the given day of next monday
The Dollar Is Running - So Stop Trying To Call The Top or BottomThe Dollar has had an impressive run over October & now half of November with consistent bullish weekly closes. It's in these times as traders, that we project our opinion onto the market and start saying things like "The market has to pullback or reverse from here" where in reality, the market's going to do whatever it want to.
There is no indication as yet from structure across the board that trends are shifting so continue to ride the wave if it aligns with your strategy. Identify key areas on the weekly and monthly because that is likely where we're gravitating towards.
Tomorrow I see continued upside on USDJPY, which I'm currently long on, which would tie in nicely with the run higher on GBPJPY to sweep TBL and mitigate the bearish order block before a sell off lower.
BTC (SMA50 and FED rate)#Bitcoin distance from 50SMA 👀
This SMA has often acted as support during a bull market.
📝The rate was also lowered today by 50 basis points, more than planned, a sign that the FED sees that the economy needs more help from the regulator.
💡Such a radical step is an indicator that very soon additional liquidity will appear on the market and, as we know from previous posts, it will, of course, settle in CRYPTOCAP:BTC and gold.
What's next for PEPE?It looks as though there is a fractal forming with PEPE that can take it onto significant higher highs. If wave 5 completes, we'll see the same fractal playing out from the two boxes. The Hurst cycles at the bottom also infer that this upward surge can happen quite quickly given there's not a huge amount of time left before the end of the cycle, validation the 5 waves. No matter how good PEPE looks, I'm not going near it. But, it's up to you as they say. Follow for more.
Bitcoin diminishing return?Bitcoin is famous with its cycles, halving and huge returns. Since 2012 price has gone up from 2$ to 90,000$. Each cycle starts with halving and then price goes up by hundreds or thousands percent and then come back down.
Since 2012, we have completed three cycles and we are in the fourth one.
In the first cycle, the lowest price was 2$ and then jumped to 1160$, this was a 52,287% increase!
The next cycle from bottom to top we had 12,511% increase.
The third cycle had 1,921% increase.
The pattern seems clear. Each time the return is diminishing by 4 to 6 times:
52287 divided by 12511 = 4.17
12511 divided by 1921 = 6.5
That means in this cycle the increase from the cycle bottom at 15,500$ should have been between 320% to 480% (this number comes from 1921% divided by 4 and 6).
A 320% to 480% increase from 15,500$ is 70,000$ and 95,000$ respectively. Bitcoin is well beyond the first target at 70,000$ and at the moment of writing this, is only 5,000$ short of 95,000$.
However, there is a problem with diminishing return theory.
To make it more clear let's look at this theory from market top perspective. In the last two cycles, market top to market top, have had 1,900% and 356% return. That means the return diminished by 5.5 times. If the same thing were to happen again it means the current market top should have only been 65% (356 divided by 5.5) of the previous market top. That means the current market top should be 45,000$.
Now the same thing will happen to market bottom to top if you believe that market has diminishing return. Based on this theory in the next cycle from market bottom to top there only will be around 80% to 120% increase and the cycle after only 25% to 75% increase from bottom and so on. That means at some point the price will never reaches even back to the previous cycle top. This is very unlikely given that bitcoin will only be more scarce and the global money supply will only increase.
The Halving's Effect On Bitcoin's PriceThis chart highlights Bitcoin's trend related to the halving, with dates of the three happenings represented by vertical black lines.
The trend is based on the 2016 - 2020 cycle. From the date of the halving, I mapped how many days it took for certain events to occur.
Green: Halving to Next All-Time High (518 days)
Orange: Halving to Bear Market Breakout (994 days)
Red: Halving to Cycle Low (882 days)
Purple: Lowest Time During Cycle (112 days)
Blue Arrow: Cycle High to Next All-Time High (1,085)
Teal: Cycle Low To Next Cycle High (1,064 days)
I then copied and pasted these timelines onto the rest of the halving cycles & noticed that each of them have been correct +/- 30 days.
There are purposely no price targets in this chart, only date targets.
Keep it simple. It's all just supply and demand.
Here’s a breakdown of the human psychology that drives this price action cycle after cycle.
Year 1 after halving: The halving happens and let’s assume demand for Bitcoin stays consistent with the previous year. The supply is growing at only 50% the rate it used to. The laws of supply and demand say that price goes up. That’s historically been the case the year after the halving.
Year 2: With the price having gone up over the past year, word of mouth begins. Whispers of an investment going up ~3x in a year spreads through group chats and conversations with friends. New folks want to make money too, so they buy, driving demand up. Year 1 & 2 are where most of the price increase happens.
Year 3: What goes up, must come down. Folks who bought two years ago could be up 5,10x, 20x on their initial investment. They begin cashing in, and demand starts to slow down. People begin to lose money and decide to sell, causing many others to do the same. Demand is way down, and so is price.
Year 4: With price having gone down 50-70% the year before, long-term investors are scooping up crypto at a great price if they plan to hold until the next cycle. With those investors bringing demand back to life, price begins to go up. WIth the halving coming soon, the cycle starts over again.
Zoom. Out. Sometimes we just need to breathe a little bit and step back. Pat yourself on the back and strap in because next leg is mania and all I have to say is ZOOM. OUT. COINBASE:BTCUSD
"People will naturally drift towards the hardest money.. "
Part 2 of DOGE vs BTCWeekly candles, zoomed all the way to the beginning of the trackable orderbooks.
Bitcoin's halvening seems to trigger an immediate "alt season" pump, and DOGE always benefits massively, claiming higher lows as a store of value.
Let's be clear- nobody originally wanted to DOGE to ever be considered a store of value- that's why it has infinite emissions (a slowly dripped never ending supply) .
In fact, the original idea was to make fun of Bitcoin's purity as a digitally scarce asset!
So it's fundamentally strange to me that this inflationary asset continues to gain value against it's disinflationary older cousin.
Oh well- hope you enjoy this one. DO NOT BASE YOUR TRADES OFF OF THIS!
Insane fractal says DOGE should do this (or close to it)I looked at the fully zoomed out DOGE/BTC chart & saw pure signal through (value) the noise (US dollars), and it pointed me to a fractal where Doge should currently be in a HYPERBOLIC run up in value against Bitcoin .
If Bitcoin continues to have an irrational climb up toward $100k, then this channel may also hold up as DOGE crosses $1
These are the psychological levels of total retail euphoria- everyone who's ever bought these assets prior to just a few weeks ago is in massive profit, but BTC maxis nowhere near as much DOGE holders!
If this irrationally exuberant channel holds, then MUST come a reckoning somewhere near/above $100k BTC and $1 DOGE.
The number 1400 in the Bitcoin chartThe pattern where there is a roughly 1,400-day interval between two peaks or two bottoms in Bitcoin cycles aligns with Bitcoin’s four-year cycles. These cycles are usually associated with the Bitcoin halving event, which occurs approximately every four years and reduces the rate at which new Bitcoin is created. Historically, this event has been followed by new bullish trends in the Bitcoin market.
In Bitcoin's four-year cycles, the general trend is as follows:
Halving: A reduction in supply due to the halving of mining rewards increases demand and initiates an upward trend.
Bull Run: Bitcoin’s price rises rapidly and reaches new highs.
Correction and Decline: After reaching a peak, the market usually enters a corrective phase, and prices decrease.
Bottom Phase: Prices gradually reach a bottom and stabilize for a while until a new cycle begins.
These cycles, with approximately 1,400 days between two peaks or two bottoms, are consistent with Bitcoin’s historical patterns. However, as the market matures and more institutional players enter, these cycles may evolve, but so far, the pattern has remained.
Potential trade setup on BRTUSDWe are looking at a short trade on BRTUSD based on the stretch strategy. There is trend and direction alignment with this trade. Trade has taken out the upper stretch but higher timeframes trend and direction is to the downside. We will take the trade with a higher probability towards opposite stretch level being taken out. We will exit the trade once range has been achieved.
Trader Order Details:
BRTUSD(Short)
E - 71.55
SL - 72.43
T - 70.40
We will be tracking this move and updating the post as we go along on the charts and on video. Keep a look out for it traders.
MA OSCILLATOR RISK METRIC | BTC COLOURED CANDLES [DAILY]As promised, post showing the 'MA OSCILLATOR RISK METRIC' indicator on the daily time frame for you to explore.
This post shows BTC's behavior to historic over / under extension to price and historic levels of volatile in prior cycles on the Daily chart.
Feel free to interact with the chart on a computer via this post (phone apps only show the static image with trading view posts).
MA OSCILLATOR RISK METRIC | BTC COLOURED CANDLES [Weekly]Hi All. Since my prior post on this indicator, I have been asked to show this indicator with risk level colours against price. I initially built this functionality in originally (during the development of this indicator) a number of different ways but ended up simplifying to using pine scrip 'bar color' function.
This post shows BTC's behavior to historic over / under extension and volatile ranges in prior cycles on the Weekly chart. I will follow this post showing the daily chart.
Feel free to interact with the chart on a computer via this post (phone apps only show the static image with trading view posts).
