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Economic Cycles

Alt season could already be here, only is winter seasonThe Crypto Market at a Crossroads: What’s Could Next for Bitcoin and Altcoins? The cryptocurrency market is at a critical juncture, and the narratives being pushed by crypto influencers might not be telling the full story. Over the next weeks and months, the altcoin landscape could undergo significant changes, and there are signals emerging that few are discussing. In this post, I’ll analyze Bitcoin, altcoins, and Bitcoin dominance and what I expect in the coming months. Bitcoin’s Current Position: Are We Near the Top? When analyzing Bitcoin, it’s crucial to zoom out and assess the bigger picture. On a weekly chart, Bitcoin’s price action suggests that we might be nearing a top. While some argue that the peak has already occurred, the current structure indicates that Bitcoin could enter a sideways/ downward movement like we saw last year. If Bitcoin continues to move sideways, altcoins are likely to follow suit. However, during these phases, some altcoins may experience brief runs, especially if Bitcoin dominance starts to decline. But here’s the catch: Bitcoin dominance has been steadily rising since Bitcoin’s bottom, which is unusual. Typically, during the late stages of a cycle, Bitcoin dominance drops as altcoins surge. This time, however, the landscape seems different. Altcoin Season: A Muted Rally? The idea of a massive altcoin season, where all altcoins surge simultaneously, might be a thing of the past. While some coins like BINANCE:SOLUSDT have already seen significant runs (from nearly $80 to $300 top in one year), the broader altcoin market has not experienced the same explosive growth. Instead, only a select few altcoins made significant moves. This doesn’t mean that altcoins are dead. There will still be opportunities, but they will likely be more selective. Coins that have already made substantial gains, like Solana, may have already topped out. Going forward the key should be to focus on coins that show strong volume breakouts and price action, rather than holding onto underperforming assets. Bitcoin Dominance and the Changing Landscape Bitcoin dominance has been on an upward trajectory, which is unusual for this stage of the cycle. Historically, Bitcoin dominance falls as altcoins begin to rally. However, this time, the dominance chart suggests that the market dynamics are shifting. While a drop in Bitcoin dominance is still possible, it may not be as pronounced as in previous cycles. This changing landscape could be due to the sheer number of altcoins in the market. With thousands of coins vying for attention, there simply isn’t enough liquidity to pump all of them. This dilution effect means that only a handful of coins will likely see significant gains, while the majority will continue to underperform. The Role of Meme Coins and Newer Projects One of the standout trends in this cycle has been the rise of meme coins and newer projects. Coins like BINANCE:SUIUSDT , which launched during this cycle, have already broken their all-time highs. However, even these newer coins may be entering a bear market phase. The market is saturated, and without a significant influx of liquidity, it’s unlikely that we’ll see another massive altcoin season. Meme coins, in particular, have been a double-edged sword. While they’ve provided some of the most explosive gains, they’ve also drained liquidity from the broader market. This extraction of value has made it harder for other altcoins to gain traction, further complicating the market dynamics. The Bigger Picture: A Potential Bear Market Looking at the broader market, there’s a growing possibility that we could be entering a bear market. The sheer number of coins in the market, combined with the lack of liquidity, suggests that the crypto space is due for a significant shakeout. Coins like BINANCE:DOTUSD , CAPITALCOM:FILUSD and even BINANCE:ADAUSDT , which have been in a bear market since 2021, are a prime example of this trend. Many altcoins are already down 80-90% from their all-time highs, and the chances of them recovering are slim. This is why it’s crucial to focus on coins that have already established a bull trend and are hovering around their support zones, as they have a higher probability of breaking out and continuing their upward trajectory. Key Takeaways and What to Watch For 1. Bitcoin’s Sideways Movement: Bitcoin is likely to move sideways or slightly downward in the coming weeks, which could create opportunities for select altcoins. 2. Selective Altcoin Runs: Not all altcoins will rally. Focus on coins with strong volume breakouts and price action. 3. Bitcoin Dominance: Keep an eye on Bitcoin dominance. A drop could signal a brief altcoin rally, but it may not be as significant as in previous cycles. 4. Meme Coins and Newer Projects: While meme coins and newer projects have seen gains, they may be entering a bear market phase. Be cautious with these assets. 5. Long-Term Bear Market : The crypto market could be entering a bear market. Focus on preserving capital and avoid holding onto underperforming assets. Final Thoughts: The crypto market is at a crossroads, and the next few months could be pivotal. While there will still be opportunities, they will likely be more selective and harder to come by. By focusing on strong projects with solid fundamentals and avoiding the hype, you can navigate this changing landscape more effectively. Remember, the key to success in crypto is not just about making money—it’s also about avoiding losses. Best of Luck! Mihai Iacob
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Mihai_Iacob
20
NVIDIA: Fib Fractal MappingConsidering all those observed fractal patterns from: A fractal to narrow in would be: Let's unfold: This means we have identified scalable structural basis. Fibonacci Mapping Validation of Metrics via Resonation: Validation of Fibonacci channel tilt: Fractals of Previous Cycle: Scalable Fractals: Fractal patterns are approximations and are not solely about predicting price movements on the Y-axis; they also encompass the frequency of reversals on the X-axis. The timing of smaller cycles, which serve as the building blocks of these patterns, holds greater significance than the overall composite price changes.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by fract
9
BTCUSD: Short for Delta-Neutrality after buying Spot @ Range-LowLike i mentioned in my previous analysis, BTCUSD is in a range and it might be ignored by the majority that there's no clear knowledge of the range spread. Noone knows, me included. I just stick to my plan. Check my previous analysis if you want to know the reasons for this idea. Now it's more concrete and it's still worth a try, but if you are a retail trader, you should ignore it because of the leverage being used as well as the lack of experience with delta-neutral trading. Also it is completely different from a typical HODL- or DCA-strategy. Trend-Followers and Breakout-Traders in general should wait for a more directional BIAS elsewhere because my analysis and trade idea results in a non-directional BIAS.
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by BossmodeInvestments
Long Idea on CC1! (Cocoa)1)Climate change is having a significant impact on cocoa production in West and Central Africa, according to a study by Wageningen University & Research (WUR). The region accounts for more than 70% of global cocoa production. Changes in temperature and rainfall are making some areas less suitable for cocoa cultivation. 2) Seasonality gives us a bullish pattern which is 98% correlated with the actual price 3)quantitative data shows 80% win rate with a good profit factor 4) The price rejected the 50 EMA forming a Pin Bar Candlestick pattern 5) The price also bounced on a demand zone 6) Price is undervalued against several benchmarks
ICEUS:CC1!Long
by kingosamafxx
Sell Bitcoin and Altcoins during 2025 and don't look back!Hello Everyone, This is my first public post since the last one, which I published on Sep 28, 2022, and you can see that here: My cycle analysis (TA) proved spot-on the last time I accurately predicted Bitcoin’s behavior. To avoid overcomplicating things, I’ll keep this brief. As the yearly chart indicates, we’ve seen a consistent pattern: a three-year bull market followed by a one-year bear market. History appears poised to repeat itself, and we’re now entering the final phase of the current bullish cycle. This year will likely be your last opportunity to exit the crypto market strategically, as historical fractals suggest a bearish downturn is due next year.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by ir0nhand
4
Elliott Wave View: SPY Looking to Resume HigherShort Term Elliott Wave View in SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) suggests pullback to 575.04 ended wave ((4)). The ETF has resumed higher in wave ((5)) with internal subdivision as 5 waves impulse. Up from wave ((4)), wave ((i)) ended at 585.99 and dips in wave ((ii)) ended at 578.35. From there, wave (i) ended at 583.81 and wave (ii) ended at 578.90. Wave (iii) higher ended at 595.56 and pullback in wave (iv) ended at 590.35. Final wave (v) ended at 607.7 which completed wave ((iii)). Pullback in wave ((iv)) ended at 604.67 and wave ((v)) higher ended at 610.78. This completed wave 1 in higher degree. The ETF then pullback in wave 2 with internal subdivision as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave 1, wave ((b)) ended at 609.96 as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Up from wave ((a)), wave (w) ended at 605.96 and wave (x) ended at 599.22. Wave (y) higher ended at 609.96 which completed wave ((b)) in higher degree. The ETF turned lower in wave ((c)) towards 589.5 which completed wave 2 in higher degree. It has turned higher in wave 3. Near term, as far as pivot at 575.04 low stays intact, expect pullback to find support in 3, 7, 11 swing for more upside.
AMEX:SPY
by Elliottwave-Forecast
1
Bitcoin Cycle Evolution: Angular Analysis of Peak FormationsAs the cryptocurrency market matures, we observe a fascinating phenomenon in Bitcoin's price dynamics: the gradual reduction in cycle volatility. This analysis presents a geometric approach to understanding and potentially forecasting this pattern through the lens of angular momentum in logarithmic price movements. P.S. TradingView has broken the candlestick ratio, you can still adjust the angle lines correctly using the chart scaling change. Methodology By examining the angular coefficients of price trajectories during Bitcoin's historical 4-year cycles, we can identify a distinct pattern of decreasing slope intensity. These angles, measured from cycle lows to peaks, demonstrate a logarithmic decay pattern that aligns with market maturation theory. Our analysis focuses on end-of-year movements, particularly November-December periods, which have historically served as critical pivot points in Bitcoin's price action. Current Findings The angular progression suggests two key trajectory angles for upcoming cycles: Current cycle (2021-2025): ~34° upward momentum Next cycle (2026-2029): ~29° upward momentum This decreasing angular pattern reflects growing market efficiency and institutional participation, leading to more moderate price appreciations in subsequent cycles. Price Projections Based on this geometric framework, we anticipate three key price levels: 2024 Cycle Peak: $150,000-200,000 Primary resistance: $150,000 Maximum extension potential: $170,000 (scam-wick) Characterized by reduced volatility compared to previous cycles 2024 Cycle Bottom: $44,000-50,000 Represents a higher structural low Optimal accumulation zone for long-term positions Enhanced market stability at support levels 2028 Cycle Peak: ~$300,000 Terminal point: November 2029 Reflects continued market maturation Demonstrates significantly dampened volatility Market Implications This geometric approach aligns with efficient market hypothesis principles, suggesting that as Bitcoin's market structure becomes more sophisticated, price movements naturally become more measured. The decreasing angular coefficients quantify this maturation process, providing a mathematical framework for what many market participants intuitively understand. Risk Assessment While this analysis provides a structured approach to understanding Bitcoin's cycle evolution, it should not be considered financial advice. The model is based on geometric patterns and historical behavior, which may not fully capture future market dynamics. Like the work? Hit the like button to support more analytical content. Note: This analysis employs logarithmic scaling to better visualize percentage-based price movements and cyclical patterns.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Paramonov95
Elliott Wave View: Gold Miners ETF (GDX) Impulse Rally ProgressShort Term Elliott Wave View in Gold Miners ETF (GDX) suggests rally from 12.30.2024 low is in progress as an impulse. Up from 12.30.2024 low, wave 1 ended at 38.2 and dips in wave 2 ended at 36.84. Internal subdivision of wave 2 unfolded as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave 1, wave ((a)) ended at 37.31 and wave ((b)) ended at 37.95. Wave ((c)) lower ended at 36.83 which completed wave 2 in higher degree. The ETF has extended higher in wave 3 with subdivision as a 5 waves with extension (a nesting impulse). Up from wave 2, wave ((i)) ended at 38.16 and pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 36.84. The ETF extended higher in wave (i) towards 39.73 and pullback in wave (ii) ended at 38.14. Up from there, wave i ended at 39.92 and wave ii ended at 39.24. Wave iii higher ended at 41.53 and pullback in wave iv ended at 40.80. Expect the ETF to end wave v of (iii), then it should pullback in wave (iv) before higher again. Near term, pullback should find support in 3, 7, or 11 swing against 36.83 low for further upside.
AMEX:GDX
by Elliottwave-Forecast
2
Ethereum/Bitcoin (ETH/BTC) Cycle Analysis – Potential Bottom AheAnalyzing the historical cycles of ETH/BTC, we observe a repeating pattern in Fibonacci retracements and price drawdowns: 🔹 Cycle 1: Fibonacci retracement: 83% Price drop: 80% 🔹 Cycle 2: Fibonacci retracement: 94% Price drop: 89% 📉 Projected Cycle 3: If ETH/BTC reacts to the Fibonacci retracement, it could find support in the 0.020 - 0.023 range. However, if the bearish trend continues, based on historical patterns, it may drop further to the 0.010 - 0.015 range. ETH/BTC is currently at a critical level. The key question is whether Fibonacci support will hold this time or if the historical downtrend will continue. ⚠ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always conduct your own research and assess risks before making trading decisions. 📊 What’s your take? Will this pattern repeat, or will we see a different outcome this time? 🚀
by TradeEngineering