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Economic Cycles

S&P 500 INDEX to 6000 before mid 2023Firstly a big thank you for taking me past the 10k likes on Tradingview. That’s a great milestone and tells me the ideas must be appreciated. If it is okay with you I’ll continue to share them freely. As a thank you for taking my ideas past this milestone I want to share the idea that will challenge 95% of those reading. You will just not believe what is about to happen in the following 6-9 months. Use this idea as a cheat code to take you to the 5% club. It is highly probable the market will rip higher and I’m betting on a new all time high before the middle of next year in the area of 6000. Then we can have our recession. Still reading? Or have you gone straight to the comments for some club 95% ‘you mad bro’ comments? What’s the evidence? There’s technical and fundamental. Firstly the technical on the above weekly chart: 1) A ‘great buy’ signal has printed. Look left. 2) Every year that ends with a ‘2’ for the last 70 years has beautiful symmetry with its roots in pi-cycle theory, but I’ll not go into that here, just accept it. Each of the annual charts below are the last 70 years with years ending in a ‘2’ with the vertical lines approximately identifying a 12 month window. 1952 - 1962 - 1972 - 1982 - 1992 - 2002 - 2012 - And finally 2022 - see a pattern? The Fundamentals 1) Mid-term elections - the FED will not crash the market with up and coming mid-term elections. They never have in the above years. 2) Insider trading - The people making the decisions / your glorious leaders, they are actually buying the dip: “U.S. House speaker Pelosi discloses trades in Apple and Microsoft” Source: www.reuters.com This is not an isolated event. 3) Sentiment is at the lowest it has been for 40 years! Not even 2008 comes close. People are so bearish right now that it is actually bullish. 4) The Put / Call ratio. The number of retail traders ‘short’ on the market is at levels not seen since August 2020. Remember then? The world was ending then too. 5) The ‘Put/Call’ ratio is printing bearish divergence just as it was back in August 2020. The market ripped higher afterwards. Well that’s it - Hope you enjoyed, this took some hours of study and preparation. Ww Type: trade Risk: <=6% of portfolio Timeframe: 6 to 9 months Return: 50-80%
SP:SPXLong
by without_worries
271
Bitcoin Long Term Analysis & Price PredictionSince 2013, Bitcoin has followed a clear trend of setting tops the year after the most recent halving event. It has also been moving in a very clear trend channel in that time. Bitcoin has yet to experience a real prolonged bear market. My prediction is predicated on us not having a recession until 2026. If we do, the market is probably going to top much sooner and lower than this chart. If we have a recession in 2026, I expect the price of Bitcoin to break the current trend channel and head into a lower one as per the chart. If on the other hand we have a true soft landing, I expect Bitcoin to stay in the current trend channel and head for another post halving year top in 2029.
BNC:BLXLong
by kwest
Bitcoin Wait for a good longThe bullish case is strong, but proper risk management is essential if you're looking to go long. The current market is heavily overleveraged with long positions, causing sharp wicks and rejections, typical of a bull run. I plan to wait and open a position at $60,750, keeping in mind that the price could drop further to $57,700, where I also plan to enter. However, don’t sleep on that level—it might be the last opportunity to open a long at a good price! BINANCE:BTCUSD
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by Jaytradermb
Eyeballing the Cycle HighThis all seems familiar to me... BTC has popped off from its cycle low and shown us market participants that it's alive, and now its consolidating around the previous cycle high. This log regression fits quite nicely over Bitcoins steady, exponential and almost linear rise. It would appear that BTC will break out of the regression channel at around $110.000-$120.000, at which point it would be time to start scaling out - hastily, though not all at once. This is my strategy, anyway. And, it will have to be adjusted along the way as it'll likely be front-ran by larger and more sophisticated investors, institutions, and governments.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by AspiringPro
SUI Sui is designed for fast transactions and low latency, making it ideal for applications such as gaming and retail payments. It is a permissionless, decentralized platform that utilizes the Move programming language for asset management. The SUI token serves multiple purposes within the ecosystem. It incentivizes validators to secure the network and validate transactions, as well as being required to execute transactions on the Sui blockchain. Additionally, SUI is used to pay for transaction fees and operational costs. Furthermore, SUI token holders have governance rights, allowing them to vote on network upgrades, with each vote weighted according to the number of staked tokens. I believe a price point of at least 5 USD will be achieved within 1-4 months with only minor pullbacks along the way. But with all things considered market could tear itself a new arsehole in that time and fuck everything up. COINBASE:SUIUSD CRYPTOCAP:SUI CRYPTO:SUIUSD
COINBASE:SUIUSDLong
by Bujarra
Election Year Cycle & Stock Market Returns - VisualisedIn this chart, we're analysing the open value of the week the US election took place and comparing it to the open of the following election, showing the gain (or loss) in value between each election cycle. Historically we can see prices in the Dow Jones Industrials Index tend to appreciate the week the election is held. Only twice has the return between the cycles produced a negative return. Buying stocks on election day, 8 out of 10 times has yielded a profitable return between the election cycles. 80% of the time in the past 40 years returning a profit, has so far been a good strategy to take. The typical cycle starts with the election results, an immediate positive movement and continued growth before finishing positive. The Outliers 2000-2004 was the only year which ended negative without prices going higher than the election day. 2004-2008 increased 41.84% before ending negative. 2008-2012 began the cycle falling 30.62% before finishing positive. The names of presidents who won their respective elections is to visualise who had the presidential term during that specific cycle.
TVC:DJIEducation
by Mt.BFX
Three days after elections and one after FED cutStarting with #VIX the value decreased a lot after elections showing the decrease in investors fear With less fear we can follow the #SPX #DX1! #BTC1! which strongly rise their value. Commodites in general seems to had loss some points with Dollar strength, in this chart we can watch #GC1! and #BZ1! as benchmark In the case of Brent we can see a double top even with line chart. #US10Y decreased after 25bp cut nevertheless with Trump election US will probably activate more worldwide tariffs and this can lead to an increase in prices, and so the next couple months CPI will be a important measure to look at US economy in the future. So even it's decreasing and bonds are inversly to prices, I should keep an eye on it
TVC:US10Y
by AFCapital21
Comprehensive analysis of FLR Cycles HWC = falling trend MWC = downtrend with weakness LWC= no trend Because our MWC is weak, we can look for a long position And since our HWC is bearish, we can also look for short positions lWC has no effect either Only our risk management and the way we set stop loss should be different We are in the box in the one-hour time frame So we can take our position with the failure of support and resistance For long position:📈 Breaking the trend line = entering earlier and riskier Resistance break = 0.1319 risky Resistance break = 0.1347 = later but safer You can choose according to your personality and strategy For shorts position:📉 failure 0.01298 I don't see any more entries If you want me to analyze a coin, tell me in the comment🫡 ⚠️ Do capital management to survive ⚠️
by parsa_xa
ETH through prism of Fib and Elliot wave theoryHello everyone. Today I will talk about ETH, the one ALT to rule them all. It is best if we look at the big picture and forget about day-to-day movements, news and all the other noise. Let us just look at the chart through basic Fibonacci levels paired with Elliot Wave Theory. First lets go through Elliot waves. Wave 1 started in 2017, first bull run. Wave 2 was in 2018, bear market. Wave 3 2019-2022, bull run. Wave 4 was short bear market in first half of 2022. We are currently in Wave 5. I have added to this chart Trend-based Fib extensions to help predict the possible top. Wave 3 ended just below 3.618 Fib extension. I like to be more on the conservative side so I will be looking for this run to end at max 2.618 Fib extension, which currently projects a price of 13k USD per ETH, making it a potential 4x profit. Remember, this is not a financial advice. This is just my thinking, shared with you. If you like my work, give it a boost and check my other ideas. If you find value in them, subscribe. Good luck!
COINBASE:ETHUSDLong
by carefulCheese32259
Doge SellAhmadarz analysis based on the DOGEUSD chart: Chart Analysis: Resistance Zone (Sell Zone): Around the $0.22–$0.23 range, there's a visible resistance level where sellers could potentially take control. The price has approached this upper zone but appears to lack momentum for a breakout. This level is marked in red on the chart and labeled as the "Best zone for Sell." Support Zone (Buy Zone): The support zone lies closer to $0.115, with the area marked in green as the "Best zone for Buy." If the price falls to this level, it might attract buyers, providing a good potential entry point for a rebound. Current Price Action: The price recently made an upward push but faced rejection near the resistance zone, suggesting a potential trend reversal or correction. The price is in a consolidation phase, bouncing around near the resistance line. A drop could lead the price back down toward the buy zone. Trading Signals 📉📈 Sell Signal: If DOGE/USD continues to face resistance around the $0.22–$0.23 level, consider a sell entry in this range. Confirmation with candlestick patterns like bearish engulfing or a clear rejection might add more strength to the signal. 🎯 Target for this position could be near the next support zone around $0.15. Buy Signal: If DOGE/USD declines towards the $0.115–$0.12 support level, this could offer a buying opportunity for a rebound. Buyers should watch for a bounce or bullish patterns near this level. 📈 Set a target around $0.15–$0.17 for potential gains. Risk Management ⚖️ Stop-Loss for Sell: If entering a sell position near $0.22, a stop-loss around $0.23 would limit potential loss if price breaks out of the resistance zone. Stop-Loss for Buy: For buy entries near $0.115, a stop-loss below $0.11 would be a protective measure if the price continues down. Sell Signal 📉 Entry: $0.22 - $0.23 StopLoss: $0.235 Targets: TP 1: $0.20 TP 2: $0.18 TP 3: $0.15 TP 4: $0.12 Conclusion 📝 This chart suggests a range-bound scenario with key levels to watch. Traders could look for sell opportunities near resistance and buy opportunities at support.
COINBASE:DOGEUSDShort
by ahmadarz
2